Magnitude and sign epistasis among deleterious mutations in a positive-sense plant RNA virus

How epistatic interactions between mutations determine the genetic architecture of fitness is of central importance in evolution. The study of epistasis is particularly interesting for RNA viruses because of their genomic compactness, lack of genetic redundancy, and apparent low complexity. Moreover, interactions between mutations in viral genomes determine traits such as resistance to antiviral drugs, virulence and host range. In this study we generated 53 Tobacco etch potyvirus genotypes carrying pairs of single-nucleotide substitutions and measured their separated and combined deleterious fitness effects. We found that up to 38% of pairs had significant epistasis for fitness, including both positive and negative deviations from the null hypothesis of multiplicative effects. Interestingly, the sign of epistasis was correlated with viral protein-protein interactions in a model network, being predominantly positive between linked pairs of proteins and negative between unlinked ones. Furthermore, 55% of significant interactions were cases of reciprocal sign epistasis (RSE), indicating that adaptive landscapes for RNA viruses maybe highly rugged. Finally, we found that the magnitude of epistasis correlated negatively with the average effect of mutations. Overall, our results are in good agreement to those previously reported for other viruses and further consolidate the view that positive epistasis is the norm for small and compact genomes that lack genetic robustness.     

Fitness ranking of individual mutants drives patterns of epistatic interactions in HIV-1

Fitness interactions between mutations, referred to as epistasis, can strongly impact evolution. For RNA viruses and retroviruses with their high mutation rates, epistasis may be particularly important to overcome fitness losses due to the accumulation of deleterious mutations and thus could influence the frequency of mutants in a viral population. As human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) resistance to azidothymidine (AZT) requires selection of sequential mutations, it is a good system to study the impact of epistasis. Here we present a thorough analysis of a classical AZT-resistance pathway (the 41-215 cluster) of HIV-1 variants by fitness measurements in single round infection assays covering physiological drug concentrations ex vivo. The sign and value of epistasis varied and did not predict the epistatic effect on the mutant frequency. This complex behavior is explained by the fitness ranking of the variants that strongly depends on environmental factors, i.e., the presence and absence of drugs and the host cells used. Although some interactions compensate fitness losses, the observed small effect on the relative mutant frequencies suggests that epistasis might be inefficient as a buffering mechanism for fitness losses in vivo. While the use of epistasis-based hypotheses to make general assumptions on the evolutionary dynamics of viral populations is appealing, our data caution their interpretation without further knowledge on the characteristics of the viral mutant spectrum under different environmental conditions.     

Viral evolution and the emergence of SARS coronavirus

The recent appearance of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) highlights the continual threat to human health posed by emerging viruses. However, the central processes in the evolution of emerging viruses are unclear, particularly the selection pressures faced by viruses in new host species. We outline some of the key evolutionary genetic aspects of viral emergence. We emphasize that, although the high mutation rates of RNA viruses provide them with great adaptability and explain why they are the main cause of emerging diseases, their limited genome size means that they are also subject to major evolutionary constraints. Understanding the mechanistic basis of these constraints, particularly the roles played by epistasis and pleiotropy, is likely to be central in explaining why some RNA viruses are more able than others to cross species boundaries. Viral genetic factors have also been implicated in the emergence of SARS-CoV, with the suggestion that this virus is a recombinant between mammalian and avian coronaviruses. We show, however, that the phylogenetic patterns cited as evidence for recombination are more probably caused by a variation in substitution rate among lineages and that recombination is unlikely to explain the appearance of SARS in humans.     

The causes of epistasis in genetic networks

Epistasis refers to the nonadditive interactions between genes in determining phenotypes. Considerable efforts have shown that, even for a given organism, epistasis may vary both in intensity and sign. Recent comparative studies supported that the overall sign of epistasis switches from positive to negative as the complexity of an organism increases, and it has been hypothesized that this change shall be a consequence of the underlying gene network properties. Why should this be the case? What characteristics of genetic networks determine the sign of epistasis? Here we show, by evolving genetic networks that differ in their complexity and robustness against perturbations but that perform the same tasks, that robustness increased with complexity and that epistasis was positive for small nonrobust networks but negative for large robust ones. Our results indicate that robustness and negative epistasis emerge as a consequence of the existence of redundant elements in regulatory structures of genetic networks and that the correlation between complexity and epistasis is a byproduct of such redundancy, allowing for the decoupling of epistasis from the underlying network complexity.     

Epistasis and its relationship to canalization in the RNA virus phi 6

Although deleterious mutations are believed to play a critical role in evolution, assessing their realized effect has been difficult. A key parameter governing the effect of deleterious mutations is the nature of epistasis, the interaction between the mutations. RNA viruses should provide one of the best systems for investigating the nature of epistasis because the high mutation rate allows a thorough investigation of mutational effects and interactions. Nonetheless, previous investigations of RNA viruses by S. Crotty and co-workers and by S. F. Elena have been unable to detect a significant effect of epistasis. Here we provide evidence that positive epistasis is characteristic of deleterious mutations in the RNA bacteriophage phi 6. We estimated the effects of deleterious mutations by performing mutation-accumulation experiments on five viral genotypes of decreasing fitness. We inferred positive epistasis because viral genotypes with low fitness were found to be less sensitive to deleterious mutations. We further examined environmental sensitivity in these genotypes and found that low-fitness genotypes were also less sensitive to environmental perturbations. Our results suggest that even random mutations impact the degree of canalization, the buffering of a phenotype against genetic and environmental perturbations. In addition, our results suggest that genetic and environmental canalization have the same developmental basis and finally that an understanding of the nature of epistasis may first require an understanding of the nature of canalization.     

Prevalence of epistasis in the evolution of influenza A surface proteins

The surface proteins of human influenza A viruses experience positive selection to escape both human immunity and, more recently, antiviral drug treatments. In bacteria and viruses, immune-escape and drug-resistant phenotypes often appear through a combination of several mutations that have epistatic effects on pathogen fitness. However, the extent and structure of epistasis in influenza viral proteins have not been systematically investigated. Here, we develop a novel statistical method to detect positive epistasis between pairs of sites in a protein, based on the observed temporal patterns of sequence evolution. The method rests on the simple idea that a substitution at one site should rapidly follow a substitution at another site if the sites are positively epistatic. We apply this method to the surface proteins hemagglutinin and neuraminidase of influenza A virus subtypes H3N2 and H1N1. Compared to a non-epistatic null distribution, we detect substantial amounts of epistasis and determine the identities of putatively epistatic pairs of sites. In particular, using sequence data alone, our method identifies epistatic interactions between specific sites in neuraminidase that have recently been demonstrated, in vitro, to confer resistance to the drug oseltamivir; these epistatic interactions are responsible for widespread drug resistance among H1N1 viruses circulating today. This experimental validation demonstrates the predictive power of our method to identify epistatic sites of importance for viral adaptation and public health. We conclude that epistasis plays a large role in shaping the molecular evolution of influenza viruses. In particular, sites with , which would normally not be identified as positively selected, can facilitate viral adaptation through epistatic interactions with their partner sites. The knowledge of specific interactions among sites in influenza proteins may help us to predict the course of antigenic evolution and, consequently, to select more appropriate vaccines and drugs.     

Analyses of evolutionary dynamics in viruses are hindered by a time-dependent bias in rate estimates

Time-scales of viral evolution and emergence have been studied widely, but are often poorly understood. Molecular analyses of viral evolutionary time-scales generally rely on estimates of rates of nucleotide substitution, which vary by several orders of magnitude depending on the timeframe of measurement. We analysed data from all major groups of viruses and found a strong negative relationship between estimates of nucleotide substitution rate and evolutionary timescale. Strikingly, this relationship was upheld both within and among diverse groups of viruses. A detailed case study of primate lentiviruses revealed that the combined effects of sequence saturation and purifying selection can explain this time-dependent pattern of rate variation. Therefore, our analyses show that studies of evolutionary time-scales in viruses require a reconsideration of substitution rates as a dynamic, rather than as a static, feature of molecular evolution. Improved modelling of viral evolutionary rates has the potential to change our understanding of virus origins.     

Rates of Viral Evolution Are Linked to Host Geography in Bat Rabies

Rates of evolution span orders of magnitude among RNA viruses with important implications for viral transmission and emergence. Although the tempo of viral evolution is often ascribed to viral features such as mutation rates and transmission mode, these factors alone cannot explain variation among closely related viruses, where host biology might operate more strongly on viral evolution. Here, we analyzed sequence data from hundreds of rabies viruses collected from bats throughout the Americas to describe dramatic variation in the speed of rabies virus evolution when circulating in ecologically distinct reservoir species. Integration of ecological and genetic data through a comparative Bayesian analysis revealed that viral evolutionary rates were labile following historical jumps between bat species and nearly four times faster in tropical and subtropical bats compared to temperate species. The association between geography and viral evolution could not be explained by host metabolism, phylogeny or variable selection pressures, and instead appeared to be a consequence of reduced seasonality in bat activity and virus transmission associated with climate. Our results demonstrate a key role for host ecology in shaping the tempo of evolution in multi-host viruses and highlight the power of comparative phylogenetic methods to identify the host and environmental features that influence transmission dynamics.     

The causes of epistasis

Since Bateson's discovery that genes can suppress the phenotypic effects of other genes, gene interactions-called epistasis-have been the topic of a vast research effort. Systems and developmental biologists study epistasis to understand the genotype-phenotype map, whereas evolutionary biologists recognize the fundamental importance of epistasis for evolution. Depending on its form, epistasis may lead to divergence and speciation, provide evolutionary benefits to sex and affect the robustness and evolvability of organisms. That epistasis can itself be shaped by evolution has only recently been realized. Here, we review the empirical pattern of epistasis, and some of the factors that may affect the form and extent of epistasis. Based on their divergent consequences, we distinguish between interactions with or without mean effect, and those affecting the magnitude of fitness effects or their sign. Empirical work has begun to quantify epistasis in multiple dimensions in the context of metabolic and fitness landscape models. We discuss possible proximate causes (such as protein function and metabolic networks) and ultimate factors (including mutation, recombination, and the importance of natural selection and genetic drift). We conclude that, in general, pleiotropy is an important prerequisite for epistasis, and that epistasis may evolve as an adaptive or intrinsic consequence of changes in genetic robustness and evolvability.     

Quasispecies spatial models for RNA viruses with different replication modes and infection strategies

Empirical observations and theoretical studies suggest that viruses may use different replication strategies to amplify their genomes, which impact the dynamics of mutation accumulation in viral populations and therefore, their fitness and virulence. Similarly, during natural infections, viruses replicate and infect cells that are rarely in suspension but spatially organized. Surprisingly, most quasispecies models of virus replication have ignored these two phenomena. In order to study these two viral characteristics, we have developed stochastic cellular automata models that simulate two different modes of replication (geometric vs stamping machine) for quasispecies replicating and spreading on a two-dimensional space. Furthermore, we explored these two replication models considering epistatic fitness landscapes (antagonistic vs synergistic) and different scenarios for cell-to-cell spread, one with free superinfection and another with superinfection inhibition. We found that the master sequences for populations replicating geometrically and with antagonistic fitness effects vanished at low critical mutation rates. By contrast, the highest critical mutation rate was observed for populations replicating geometrically but with a synergistic fitness landscape. Our simulations also showed that for stamping machine replication and antagonistic epistasis, a combination that appears to be common among plant viruses, populations further increased their robustness by inhibiting superinfection. We have also shown that the mode of replication strongly influenced the linkage between viral loci, which rapidly reached linkage equilibrium at increasing mutations for geometric replication. We also found that the strategy that minimized the time required to spread over the whole space was the stamping machine with antagonistic epistasis among mutations. Finally, our simulations revealed that the multiplicity of infection fluctuated but generically increased along time.     

Chasing the Origin of Viruses: Capsid-Forming Genes as a Life-Saving Preadaptation within a Community of Early Replicators

Virus capsids mediate the transfer of viral genetic information from one cell to another, thus the origin of the first viruses arguably coincides with the origin of the viral capsid. Capsid genes are evolutionarily ancient and their emergence potentially predated even the origin of first free-living cells. But does the origin of the capsid coincide with the origin of viruses, or is it possible that capsid-like functionalities emerged before the appearance of true viral entities? We set to investigate this question by using a computational simulator comprising primitive replicators and replication parasites within a compartment matrix. We observe that systems with no horizontal gene transfer between compartments collapse due to the rapidly emerging replication parasites. However, introduction of capsid-like genes that induce the movement of randomly selected genes from one compartment to another rescues life by providing the non-parasitic replicators a mean to escape their current compartments before the emergence of replication parasites. Capsid-forming genes can mediate the establishment of a stable meta-population where parasites cause only local tragedies but cannot overtake the whole community. The long-term survival of replicators is dependent on the frequency of horizontal transfer events, as systems with either too much or too little genetic exchange are doomed to succumb to replication-parasites. This study provides a possible scenario for explaining the origin of viral capsids before the emergence of genuine viruses: in the absence of other means of horizontal gene transfer between compartments, evolution of capsid-like functionalities may have been necessary for early life to prevail.     

CRISPR-Induced Distributed Immunity in Microbial Populations

In bacteria and archaea, viruses are the primary infectious agents, acting as virulent, often deadly pathogens. A form of adaptive immune defense known as CRISPR-Cas enables microbial cells to acquire immunity to viral pathogens by recognizing specific sequences encoded in viral genomes. The unique biology of this system results in evolutionary dynamics of host and viral diversity that cannot be fully explained by the traditional models used to describe microbe-virus coevolutionary dynamics. Here, we show how the CRISPR-mediated adaptive immune response of hosts to invading viruses facilitates the emergence of an evolutionary mode we call distributed immunity - the coexistence of multiple, equally-fit immune alleles among individuals in a microbial population. We use an eco-evolutionary modeling framework to quantify distributed immunity and demonstrate how it emerges and fluctuates in multi-strain communities of hosts and viruses as a consequence of CRISPR-induced coevolution under conditions of low viral mutation and high relative numbers of viral protospacers. We demonstrate that distributed immunity promotes sustained diversity and stability in host communities and decreased viral population density that can lead to viral extinction. We analyze sequence diversity of experimentally coevolving populations of Streptococcus thermophilus and their viruses where CRISPR-Cas is active, and find the rapid emergence of distributed immunity in the host population, demonstrating the importance of this emergent phenomenon in evolving microbial communities.     

The evolutionary genetics of emerging plant RNA viruses

Over the years, agriculture across the world has been compromised by a succession of devastating epidemics caused by new viruses that spilled over from reservoir species or by new variants of classic viruses that acquired new virulence factors or changed their epidemiological patterns. Viral emergence is usually associated with ecological change or with agronomical practices bringing together reservoirs and crop species. The complete picture is, however, much more complex, and results from an evolutionary process in which the main players are ecological factors, viruses' genetic plasticity, and host factors required for virus replication, all mixed with a good measure of stochasticity. The present review puts emergence of plant RNA viruses into the framework of evolutionary genetics, stressing that viral emergence begins with a stochastic process that involves the transmission of a preexisting viral strain into a new host species, followed by adaptation to the new host.     

Feature Selection Methods for Identifying Genetic Determinants of Host Species in RNA Viruses

Despite environmental, social and ecological dependencies, emergence of zoonotic viruses in human populations is clearly also affected by genetic factors which determine cross-species transmission potential. RNA viruses pose an interesting case study given their mutation rates are orders of magnitude higher than any other pathogen – as reflected by the recent emergence of SARS and Influenza for example. Here, we show how feature selection techniques can be used to reliably classify viral sequences by host species, and to identify the crucial minority of host-specific sites in pathogen genomic data. The variability in alleles at those sites can be translated into prediction probabilities that a particular pathogen isolate is adapted to a given host. We illustrate the power of these methods by: 1) identifying the sites explaining SARS coronavirus differences between human, bat and palm civet samples; 2) showing how cross species jumps of rabies virus among bat populations can be readily identified; and 3) de novo identification of likely functional influenza host discriminant markers.     

Evolving views of viral evolution: towards an evolutionary biology of viruses.

Despite considerable interest in viral evolution, at least among virologists, viruses are rarely considered from the same evolutionary vantage point as other organisms. Early work of necessity emphasized phenotype and phenotypic variation (and therefore arguably was more oriented towards the broader biological and ecological perspectives). More recent work (essentially since the development of molecular evolution in the 1960's but beginning earlier) has concentrated on genotypic variation, with less clarity about the significance of such variations. Other aspects of evolutionary theory, especially considerations of natural selection and of evolutionary constraints, have not widely been applied to viruses, and an evolutionary framework for virology has long been lacking. This becomes apparent in considering 'emerging' viruses, which have often been treated on an ad hoc basis. It was often felt that, because previously unrecognized viruses are involved, mechanisms of viral emergence must mirror the unpredictability of mutations in the viral genome. However, most examples of viral emergence are independent of mutation, at least initially, and are often pre-existing viruses in changed circumstances ('viral traffic'). This conclusion also readily follows from ordinary Darwinian premises, which would require that, like other living species, 'new' organisms are descended only from existing species. In this respect, from a Darwinian perspective, viruses would appear to resemble other organisms.     

Epistatic interactions between ancestral genotype and beneficial mutations shape evolvability in Pseudomonas aeruginosa

The idea that interactions between mutations influence adaptation by driving populations to low and high fitness peaks on adaptive landscapes is deeply ingrained in evolutionary theory. Here, we investigate the impact of epistasis on evolvability by challenging populations of two Pseudomonas aeruginosa clones bearing different initial mutations (in rpoB conferring rifampicin resistance, and the type IV pili gene network) to adaptation to a medium containing l ‐serine as the sole carbon source. Despite being initially indistinguishable in fitness, populations founded by the two ancestral genotypes reached different fitness following 300 generations of evolution. Genome sequencing revealed that the difference could not be explained by acquiring mutations in different targets of selection; the majority of clones from both ancestors converged on one of the following two strategies: (1) acquiring mutations in either PA2449 (gcsR, an l ‐serine‐metabolism RpoN enhancer binding protein) or (2) protease genes. Additionally, populations from both ancestors converged on loss‐of‐function mutations in the type IV pili gene network, either due to ancestral or acquired mutations. No compensatory or reversion mutations were observed in RNA polymerase (RNAP) genes, in spite of the large fitness costs typically associated with mutations in rpoB. Although current theory points to sign epistasis as the dominant constraint on evolvability, these results suggest that the role of magnitude epistasis in constraining evolvability may be underappreciated. The contribution of magnitude epistasis is likely to be greatest under the biologically relevant mutation supply rates that make back mutations probabilistically unlikely.     

The impact of high‐order epistasis in the within‐host fitness of a positive‐sense plant RNA virus

RNA viruses are the main source of emerging infectious diseases because of the evolutionary potential bestowed by their fast replication, large population sizes and high mutation and recombination rates. However, an equally important property, which is usually neglected, is the topography of the fitness landscape. How many fitness maxima exist and how well they are connected is especially interesting, as this determines the number of accessible evolutionary pathways. To address this question, we have reconstructed a region of the fitness landscape of tobacco etch potyvirus constituted by mutations observed during the experimental adaptation of the virus to the novel host Arabidopsis thaliana. Fitness was measured for many genotypes and showed the existence of multiple peaks and holes in the landscape. We found prevailing epistatic effects between mutations, with cases of reciprocal sign epistasis being common among pairs of mutations. We also found that high‐order epistasis was as important as pairwise epistasis in their contribution to fitness. Therefore, results suggest that the landscape was rugged due to the existence of holes caused by lethal genotypes, that a very limited number of potential neutral paths exist and that it contained a single adaptive peak.     

The influence of bat ecology on viral diversity and reservoir status

Repeated emergence of zoonotic viruses from bat reservoirs into human populations demands predictive approaches to preemptively identify virus‐carrying bat species. Here, we use machine learning to examine drivers of viral diversity in bats, determine whether those drivers depend on viral genome type, and predict undetected viral carriers. Our results indicate that bat species with longer life spans, broad geographic distributions in the eastern hemisphere, and large group sizes carry more viruses overall. Life span was a stronger predictor of deoxyribonucleic acid viral diversity, while group size and family were more important for predicting ribonucleic acid viruses, potentially reflecting broad differences in infection duration. Importantly, our models predict 54 bat species as likely carriers of zoonotic viruses, despite not currently being considered reservoirs. Mapping these predictions as a proportion of local bat diversity, we identify global regions where efforts to reduce disease spillover into humans by identifying viral carriers may be most productive.     

The emergence of new virus diseases: an overview

From experience, we know that many different elements can contribute to the emergence of a new virus disease; these include virologic determinants [such as mutation, recombination, reassortment (drift and shift), natural selection, fitness adaptation, evolutionary progressional], natural influences (such as ecologic, environmental and zoonotic influences) and factors pertaining to human activity (such as behavioral, societal, transport, commercial and iatrogenic factors). In general, there is no way to predict when or where the next important new viral pathogen will emerge; neither is there any way to reliably predict the ultimate importance of a virus as it first emerges. Given this reality, initial investigation at the first sign of the emergence of a new virus disease must focus on characteristics such as mortality, severity of disease, transmissibility, and remote spread, all of which are important predictors of epidemic potential and societal threat. Clinical observations, pathologic examinations and preliminary virus identification and characterization often provide early clues, since new, emerging viruses often resemble their closest genetic relatives in regard to their epidemiologic and pathogenetic characteristics. Development of a global surveillance/diagnostics/communications network is needed, but this, in turn, must be linked to a global action network. This network must be designed to be flexible; capable, for example, in one instance of emphasizing local professional infrastructure development, and in the next of emphasizing global epidemic aid. Given the nature and magnitude of the threat represented by new and emerging virus diseases, the development of a global surveillance/action network is, indeed, a worthy goal for national and international public health authorities.