Signals of Climate Change in Butterfly Communities in a Mediterranean Protected Area

The European protected-area network will cease to be efficient for biodiversity conservation, particularly in the Mediterranean region, if species are driven out of protected areas by climate warming. Yet, no empirical evidence of how climate change influences ecological communities in Mediterranean nature reserves really exists. Here, we examine long-term (1998–2011/2012) and short-term (2011–2012) changes in the butterfly fauna of Dadia National Park (Greece) by revisiting 21 and 18 transects in 2011 and 2012 respectively, that were initially surveyed in 1998. We evaluate the temperature trend for the study area for a 22-year-period (1990–2012) in which all three butterfly surveys are included. We also assess changes in community composition and species richness in butterfly communities using information on (a) species’ elevational distributions in Greece and (b) Community Temperature Index (calculated from the average temperature of species'' geographical ranges in Europe, weighted by species'' abundance per transect and year). Despite the protected status of Dadia NP and the subsequent stability of land use regimes, we found a marked change in butterfly community composition over a 13 year period, concomitant with an increase of annual average temperature of 0.95°C. Our analysis gave no evidence of significant year-to-year (2011–2012) variability in butterfly community composition, suggesting that the community composition change we recorded is likely the consequence of long-term environmental change, such as climate warming. We observe an increased abundance of low-elevation species whereas species mainly occurring at higher elevations in the region declined. The Community Temperature Index was found to increase in all habitats except agricultural areas. If equivalent changes occur in other protected areas and taxonomic groups across Mediterranean Europe, new conservation options and approaches for increasing species’ resilience may have to be devised.     

Evidence of Tree Species’ Range Shifts in a Complex Landscape

Climate change is expected to change the distribution of species. For long-lived, sessile species such as trees, tracking the warming climate depends on seedling colonization of newly favorable areas. We compare the distribution of seedlings and mature trees for all but the rarest tree species in California, Oregon and Washington, United States of America, a large, environmentally diverse region. Across 46 species, the mean annual temperature of the range of seedlings was 0.120°C colder than that of the range of trees (95% confidence interval from 0.096 to 0.144°C). The extremes of the seedling distributions also shifted towards colder temperature than those of mature trees, but the change was less pronounced. Although the mean elevation and mean latitude of the range of seedlings was higher than and north of those of the range of mature trees, elevational and latitudinal shifts run in opposite directions for the majority of the species, reflecting the lack of a direct biological relationship between species’ distributions and those variables. The broad scale, environmental diversity and variety of disturbance regimes and land uses of the study area, the large number and exhaustive sampling of tree species, and the direct causal relationship between the temperature response and a warming climate, provide strong evidence to attribute the observed shifts to climate change.     

Environmental gradients of selection for an alpine-obligate bird,the white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura)

The warming climate will expose alpine species adapted to a highly seasonal, harsh environment to novel environmental conditions. A species can shift their distribution, acclimate, or adapt in response to a new climate. Alpine species have little suitable habitat to shift their distribution, and the limits of acclimation will likely be tested by climate change in the long-term. Adaptive genetic variation may provide the raw material for species to adapt to this changing environment. Here, we use a genomic approach to describe adaptive divergence in an alpine-obligate species, the white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura), a species distributed from Alaska to New Mexico, across an environmentally variable geographic range. Previous work has identified genetic structure and morphological, behavioral, and physiological differences across the species’ range; however, those studies were unable to determine the degree to which adaptive divergence is correlated with local variation in environmental conditions. We used a genome-wide dataset generated from 95 white-tailed ptarmigan distributed throughout the species’ range and genotype–environment association analyses to identify the genetic signature and environmental drivers of local adaptation. We detected associations between multiple environmental gradients and candidate adaptive loci, suggesting ptarmigan populations may be locally adapted to the plant community composition, elevation, local climate, and to the seasonality of the environment. Overall, our results suggest there may be groups within the species’ range with genetic variation that could be essential for adapting to a changing climate and helpful in guiding conservation action.Subject terms: Ecological genetics, Evolutionary ecology     

Edging along a Warming Coast: A Range Extension for a Common Sandy Beach Crab

Determining the position of range edges is the first step in developing an understanding of the ecological and evolutionary dynamics in play as species’ ranges shift in response to climate change. Here, we study the leading (poleward) range edge of Ocypode cordimanus, a ghost crab that is common along the central to northern east coast of Australia. Our study establishes the poleward range edge of adults of this species to be at Merimbula (36.90°S, 149.93°E), 270 km (along the coast) south of the previous southernmost museum record. We also establish that dispersal of pelagic larvae results in recruitment to beaches 248 km (along the coast; 0.9° of latitude) beyond the adult range edge we have documented here. Although we cannot conclusively demonstrate that the leading range edge for this species has moved polewards in response to climate change, this range edge does fall within a “hotspot” of ocean warming, where surface isotherms are moving southwards along the coast at 20–50 km.decade^-1; coastal air temperatures in the region are also warming. If these patterns persist, future range extensions could be anticipated. On the basis of their ecology, allied with their occupancy of ocean beaches, which are home to taxa that are particularly amenable to climate-change studies, we propose that ghost crabs like O. cordimanus represent ideal model organisms with which to study ecological and evolutionary processes associated with climate change. The fact that “hotspots” of ocean warming on four other continents correspond with poleward range edges of ghost crab species suggests that results of hypothesis tests could be generalized, yielding excellent opportunities to rapidly progress knowledge in this field.     

Plant species’ range shifts in mountainous areas—all uphill from here?

Species from many different habitats are responding to recent climate change. Mountainous areas are of particular interest as they provide pronounced gradients and have experienced above-average temperature increases. Data from the beginning of the 20th century of both the upper and lower range limits of plants of the European Alps were updated a century later and analyzed in order to identify common trends and deviating patterns of shifts at opposing ends of species’ ranges. At the upper limit, there was a strong trend towards an increase in species richness per summit, including 33 species that were recorded for the first time on any of the investigated summit areas. The species experienced a consistent upward shift exceeding 100 elevational meters, and 49 out of the 125 investigated species shifted upwards to a present altitude which is higher than any reported occurrence in the region one century ago. The response at the lower range limit was more heterogeneous and suggests species-specific differences in responsiveness and response patterns. With this approach of the combined analysis of upper and lower range limits along elevational gradients, it is possible to identify candidate species that might not keep pace with climate change, and thus, might face an increased risk of extinction with continued global warming.     

Orchid Species Richness along Elevational and Environmental Gradients in Yunnan,China

The family Orchidaceae is not only one of the most diverse families of flowering plants, but also one of the most endangered plant taxa. Therefore, understanding how its species richness varies along geographical and environmental gradients is essential for conservation efforts. However, such knowledge is rarely available, especially on a large scale. We used a database extracted from herbarium records to investigate the relationships between orchid species richness and elevation, and to examine how elevational diversity in Yunnan Province, China, might be explained by mid-domain effect (MDE), species–area relationship (SAR), water–energy dynamics (WED), Rapoport’s Rule, and climatic variables. This particular location was selected because it is one of the primary centers of distribution for orchids. We recorded 691 species that span 127 genera and account for 88.59% of all confirmed orchid species in Yunnan. Species richness, estimated at 200-m intervals along a slope, was closely correlated with elevation, peaking at 1395 to 1723 m. The elevational pattern of orchid richness was considerably shaped by MDE, SAR, WED, and climate. Among those four predictors, climate was the strongest while MDE was the weakest for predicting the elevational pattern of orchid richness. Species richness showed parabolic responses to mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP), with maximum richness values recorded at 13.7 to 17.7°C for MAT and 1237 to 1414 mm for MAP. Rapoport’s Rule also helped to explain the elevational pattern of species richness in Yunnan, but those influences were not entirely uniform across all methods. These results suggested that the elevational pattern of orchid species richness in Yunnan is collectively shaped by several mechanisms related to geometric constraints, size of the land area, and environments. Because of the dominant role of climate in determining orchid richness, our findings may contribute to a better understanding of the potential effects of climate change on orchid diversity, and the development of conservation strategies for orchids.     

Temperature,but not pH,compromises sea urchin fertilization and early development under near-future climate change scenarios

Global warming is causing ocean warming and acidification. The distribution of Heliocidaris erythrogramma coincides with the eastern Australia climate change hot spot, where disproportionate warming makes marine biota particularly vulnerable to climate change. In keeping with near-future climate change scenarios, we determined the interactive effects of warming and acidification on fertilization and development of this echinoid. Experimental treatments (20–26°C, pH 7.6–8.2) were tested in all combinations for the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, with 20°C/pH 8.2 being ambient. Percentage of fertilization was high (>89%) across all treatments. There was no difference in percentage of normal development in any pH treatment. In elevated temperature conditions, +4°C reduced cleavage by 40 per cent and +6°C by a further 20 per cent. Normal gastrulation fell below 4 per cent at +6°C. At 26°C, development was impaired. As the first study of interactive effects of temperature and pH on sea urchin development, we confirm the thermotolerance and pH resilience of fertilization and embryogenesis within predicted climate change scenarios, with negative effects at upper limits of ocean warming. Our findings place single stressor studies in context and emphasize the need for experiments that address ocean warming and acidification concurrently. Although ocean acidification research has focused on impaired calcification, embryos may not reach the skeletogenic stage in a warm ocean.     

Abundance decline in the avifauna of the European Union reveals cross‐continental similarities in biodiversity change

Although global assessments provide evidence of biodiversity decline, some have questioned the strength of the evidence, with local assemblage studies often showing a more balanced picture of biodiversity change. The multifaceted nature of biodiversity and imperfect monitoring datasets may partially explain these findings. Here, using an extensive dataset, we find significant biodiversity loss in the native avifauna of the European Union (EU). We estimate a decline of 17–19% in the overall breeding bird abundance since 1980: a loss of 560–620 million individual birds. Both total and proportional declines in bird numbers are high among species associated with agricultural land. The distribution of species’ population growth rates (ln) is centered close to zero, with numerical decline driven by substantial losses in abundant species. Our work supports previous assessments indicating substantial recent biodiversity loss and calls to reduce the threat of extinctions and restore species’ abundances, for the sake of nature and people.     

Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People,Future Generations and Nature

We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth’s measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today’s young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur “slow” feedbacks and eventual warming of 3–4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth’s energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.     

Current Analogues of Future Climate Indicate the Likely Response of a Sensitive Montane Tropical Avifauna to a Warming World

Among birds, tropical montane species are likely to be among the most vulnerable to climate change, yet little is known about how climate drives their distributions, nor how to predict their likely responses to temperature increases. Correlative models of species’ environmental niches have been widely used to predict changes in distribution, but direct tests of the relationship between key variables, such as temperature, and species’ actual distributions are few. In the absence of historical data with which to compare observations and detect shifts, space-for-time substitutions, where warmer locations are used as analogues of future conditions, offer an opportunity to test for species’ responses to climate. We collected density data for rainforest birds across elevational gradients in northern and southern subregions within the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT). Using environmental optima calculated from elevational density profiles, we detected a significant elevational difference between the two regions in ten of 26 species. More species showed a positive (19 spp.) than negative (7 spp.) displacement, with a median difference of ∼80.6 m across the species analysed that is concordant with that expected due to latitudinal temperature differences (∼75.5 m). Models of temperature gradients derived from broad-scale climate surfaces showed comparable performance to those based on in-situ measurements, suggesting the former is sufficient for modeling impacts. These findings not only confirm temperature as an important factor driving elevational distributions of these species, but also suggest species will shift upslope to track their preferred environmental conditions. Our approach uses optima calculated from elevational density profiles, offering a data-efficient alternative to distribution limits for gauging climate constraints, and is sensitive enough to detect distribution shifts in this avifauna in response to temperature changes of as little as 0.4 degrees. We foresee important applications in the urgent task of detecting and monitoring impacts of climate change on montane tropical biodiversity.     

Elevational Ranges of Montane Birds and Deforestation in the Western Andes of Colombia

Deforestation causes habitat loss, fragmentation, degradation, and can ultimately cause extinction of the remnant species. Tropical montane birds face these threats with the added natural vulnerability of narrower elevational ranges and higher specialization than lowland species. Recent studies assess the impact of present and future global climate change on species’ ranges, but only a few of these evaluate the potentially confounding effect of lowland deforestation on species elevational distributions. In the Western Andes of Colombia, an important biodiversity hotspot, we evaluated the effects of deforestation on the elevational ranges of montane birds along altitudinal transects. Using point counts and mist-nets, we surveyed six altitudinal transects spanning 2200 to 2800m. Three transects were forested from 2200 to 2800m, and three were partially deforested with forest cover only above 2400m. We compared abundance-weighted mean elevation, minimum elevation, and elevational range width. In addition to analysing the effect of deforestation on 134 species, we tested its impact within trophic guilds and habitat preference groups. Abundance-weighted mean and minimum elevations were not significantly different between forested and partially deforested transects. Range width was marginally different: as expected, ranges were larger in forested transects. Species in different trophic guilds and habitat preference categories showed different trends. These results suggest that deforestation may affect species’ elevational ranges, even within the forest that remains. Climate change will likely exacerbate harmful impacts of deforestation on species’ elevational distributions. Future conservation strategies need to account for this by protecting connected forest tracts across a wide range of elevations.     

Plants,Birds and Butterflies: Short-Term Responses of Species Communities to Climate Warming Vary by Taxon and with Altitude

As a consequence of climate warming, species usually shift their distribution towards higher latitudes or altitudes. Yet, it is unclear how different taxonomic groups may respond to climate warming over larger altitudinal ranges. Here, we used data from the national biodiversity monitoring program of Switzerland, collected over an altitudinal range of 2500 m. Within the short period of eight years (2003–2010), we found significant shifts in communities of vascular plants, butterflies and birds. At low altitudes, communities of all species groups changed towards warm-dwelling species, corresponding to an average uphill shift of 8 m, 38 m and 42 m in plant, butterfly and bird communities, respectively. However, rates of community changes decreased with altitude in plants and butterflies, while bird communities changed towards warm-dwelling species at all altitudes. We found no decrease in community variation with respect to temperature niches of species, suggesting that climate warming has not led to more homogenous communities. The different community changes depending on altitude could not be explained by different changes of air temperatures, since during the 16 years between 1995 and 2010, summer temperatures in Switzerland rose by about 0.07°C per year at all altitudes. We discuss that land-use changes or increased disturbances may have prevented alpine plant and butterfly communities from changing towards warm-dwelling species. However, the findings are also consistent with the hypothesis that unlike birds, many alpine plant species in a warming climate could find suitable habitats within just a few metres, due to the highly varied surface of alpine landscapes. Our results may thus support the idea that for plants and butterflies and on a short temporal scale, alpine landscapes are safer places than lowlands in a warming world.     

Climate‐driven elevational variation in range sizes of vascular plants in the central Himalayas: A supporting case for Rapoport's rule

A fundamental yet controversial topic in biogeography is how and why species range sizes vary along spatial gradients. To advance our understanding of these questions and to provide insights into biological conservation, we assessed elevational variations in the range sizes of vascular plants with different life forms and biogeographical affinities and explored the main drivers underlying these variations in the longest valley in China''s Himalayas, the Gyirong Valley. Elevational range sizes of vascular plants were documented in 96 sampling plots along an elevational gradient ranging from 1,800 to 5,400 m above sea level. We assessed the elevational variations in range size by averaging the range sizes of all recorded species within each sampling plot. We then related the range size to climate, disturbance, and the mid‐domain effect and explored the relative importance of these factors in explaining the range size variations using the Random Forest model. A total of 545 vascular plants were recorded in the sampling plots along the elevational gradient. Of these, 158, 387, 337, and 112 were woody, herbaceous, temperate, and tropical species, respectively. The range size of each group of vascular plants exhibited uniform increasing trends along the elevational gradient, which was consistent with the prediction of Rapoport''s rule. Climate was the main driver of the increasing trends of vascular plant range sizes in the Gyirong Valley. The climate variability hypothesis and mean climate condition hypothesis could both explain the elevation–range size relationships. Our results reinforce the previous notion that Rapoport''s rule applies to regions where the influence of climate is the most pronounced, and call for close attention to the impact of climate change to prevent species range contraction and even extinction due to global warming.     

Medicinal plants in peril due to climate change in the Himalaya

Climate change is causing many irreversible changes in the Himalayan ecosystems. In this study, an attempt was made to understand the ecological response of medicinal plant species to changing climate conditions in the Sikkim Himalaya, a part of the Eastern Himalayan biodiversity hotspot. Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) approach was used to analyze the potential habitat distribution of 163 medicinal plant species in current and future climates (2050, 2070). An attempt was also made to identify the most suitable areas for conservation and test the effectiveness of the existing Protected Area (PA) network in conserving medicinal plant species in current and future climate scenarios through the Habitat Suitability and Overlap Analyses. SDM analyses revealed that the majority of the medicinal plant species are found in the tropical and sub-tropical regions in the Sikkim Himalaya (300–2000 m) at present. In future climates, however, most of the species are likely to show an upward and northward shift in their distributions. Maximum species-rich regions are likely to shift by 200 m and 400 m in 2050 and 2070, respectively. A total of 13–16% of medicinal plant species currently found in the region are likely to lose their existing potential habitats by 2050 and 2070. The results highlight that species that are restricted to specific localities and have a narrow elevational distribution are the most vulnerable species and likely to go extinct due to climate change in the Himalaya. Habitat suitability analyses indicated that elevations ranging from 860 to 2937 m serve as highly suitable habitats for medicinal plant species in Sikkim Himalaya. Consequently, these areas can be focused for conservation actions in order to mitigate the effect of climate change. The results of Overlap Analysis indicated that out of 8 PAs in Sikkim Himalaya, only 5 PAs are effective in the conservation of medicinal plant species in current and future climates. The boundaries of existing PAs need to be expanded in order to accommodate the upward shifts in the spatial distribution of species, especially in the case of those PAs that are located in the lower elevations or tropical regions. This study provides a novel integrated framework for use of ecological informatics in assessing the species vulnerability to climate change and planning conservation priorities.     

Responses of Soil Microbial Communities to Experimental Warming in Alpine Grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Global surface temperature is predicted to increase by at least 1.5°C by the end of this century. However, the response of soil microbial communities to global warming is still poorly understood, especially in high-elevation grasslands. We therefore conducted an experiment on three types of alpine grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to study the effect of experimental warming on abundance and composition of soil microbial communities at 0–10 and 10–20 cm depths. Plots were passively warmed for 3 years using open-top chambers and compared to adjacent control plots at ambient temperature. Soil microbial communities were assessed using phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analysis. We found that 3 years of experimental warming consistently and significantly increased microbial biomass at the 0–10 cm soil depth of alpine swamp meadow (ASM) and alpine steppe (AS) grasslands, and at both the 0–10 and 10–20 cm soil depths of alpine meadow (AM) grasslands, due primarily to the changes in soil temperature, moisture, and plant coverage. Soil microbial community composition was also significantly affected by warming at the 0–10 cm soil depth of ASM and AM and at the 10–20 cm soil depth of AM. Warming significantly decreased the ratio of fungi to bacteria and thus induced a community shift towards bacteria at the 0–10 cm soil depth of ASM and AM. While the ratio of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi to saprotrophic fungi (AMF/SF) was significantly decreased by warming at the 0–10 cm soil depth of ASM, it was increased at the 0–10 cm soil depth of AM. These results indicate that warming had a strong influence on soil microbial communities in the studied high-elevation grasslands and that the effect was dependent on grassland type.     

Potential Climate Change Effects on the Habitat of Antarctic Krill in the Weddell Quadrant of the Southern Ocean

Antarctic krill is a cold water species, an increasingly important fishery resource and a major prey item for many fish, birds and mammals in the Southern Ocean. The fishery and the summer foraging sites of many of these predators are concentrated between 0° and 90°W. Parts of this quadrant have experienced recent localised sea surface warming of up to 0.2°C per decade, and projections suggest that further widespread warming of 0.27° to 1.08°C will occur by the late 21^st century. We assessed the potential influence of this projected warming on Antarctic krill habitat with a statistical model that links growth to temperature and chlorophyll concentration. The results divide the quadrant into two zones: a band around the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in which habitat quality is particularly vulnerable to warming, and a southern area which is relatively insensitive. Our analysis suggests that the direct effects of warming could reduce the area of growth habitat by up to 20%. The reduction in growth habitat within the range of predators, such as Antarctic fur seals, that forage from breeding sites on South Georgia could be up to 55%, and the habitat’s ability to support Antarctic krill biomass production within this range could be reduced by up to 68%. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the effects of a 50% change in summer chlorophyll concentration could be more significant than the direct effects of warming. A reduction in primary production could lead to further habitat degradation but, even if chlorophyll increased by 50%, projected warming would still cause some degradation of the habitat accessible to predators. While there is considerable uncertainty in these projections, they suggest that future climate change could have a significant negative effect on Antarctic krill growth habitat and, consequently, on Southern Ocean biodiversity and ecosystem services.     

Modelization of the Current and Future Habitat Suitability of Rhododendron ferrugineum Using Potential Snow Accumulation

Mountain areas are particularly sensitive to climate change. Species distribution models predict important extinctions in these areas whose magnitude will depend on a number of different factors. Here we examine the possible impact of climate change on the Rhododendron ferrugineum (alpenrose) niche in Andorra (Pyrenees). This species currently occupies 14.6 km² of this country and relies on the protection afforded by snow cover in winter. We used high-resolution climatic data, potential snow accumulation and a combined forecasting method to obtain the realized niche model of this species. Subsequently, we used data from the high-resolution Scampei project climate change projection for the A2, A1B and B1 scenarios to model its future realized niche model. The modelization performed well when predicting the species’s distribution, which improved when we considered the potential snow accumulation, the most important variable influencing its distribution. We thus obtained a potential extent of about 70.7 km² or 15.1% of the country. We observed an elevation lag distribution between the current and potential distribution of the species, probably due to its slow colonization rate and the small-scale survey of seedlings. Under the three climatic scenarios, the realized niche model of the species will be reduced by 37.9–70.1 km² by the end of the century and it will become confined to what are today screes and rocky hillside habitats. The particular effects of climate change on seedling establishment, as well as on the species’ plasticity and sensitivity in the event of a reduction of the snow cover, could worsen these predictions.     

Identifying the World's Most Climate Change Vulnerable Species: A Systematic Trait-Based Assessment of all Birds,Amphibians and Corals

Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species’ biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world’s birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species). The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle) for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608–851 bird (6–9%), 670–933 amphibian (11–15%), and 47–73 coral species (6–9%) are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, our approach can be used to devise species and area-specific conservation interventions and indices. The priorities we identify will strengthen global strategies to mitigate climate change impacts.     

Potential Impacts of Climate Warming on Water Supply Reliability in the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins,California

We present an integrated hydrology/water operations simulation model of the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins, California, using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) platform. The model represents hydrology as well as water operations, which together influence water supplied for agricultural, urban, and environmental uses. The model is developed for impacts assessment using scenarios for climate change and other drivers of water system behavior. In this paper, we describe the model structure, its representation of historical streamflow, agricultural and urban water demands, and water operations. We describe projected impacts of climate change on hydrology and water supply to the major irrigation districts in the area, using uniform 2°C, 4°C, and 6°C increases applied to climate inputs from the calibration period. Consistent with other studies, we find that the timing of hydrology shifts earlier in the water year in response to temperature warming (5–21 days). The integrated agricultural model responds with increased water demands 2°C (1.4–2.0%), 4°C (2.8–3.9%), and 6°C (4.2–5.8%). In this sensitivity analysis, the combination of altered hydrology and increased demands results in decreased reliability of surface water supplied for agricultural purposes, with modeled quantity-based reliability metrics decreasing from a range of 0.84–0.90 under historical conditions to 0.75–0.79 under 6°C warming scenario.     

Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Global Warming in the Tibetan Plateau during the Last 50 Years Based on a Generalised Temperature Zone - Elevation Model

Temperature is one of the primary factors influencing the climate and ecosystem, and examining its change and fluctuation could elucidate the formation of novel climate patterns and trends. In this study, we constructed a generalised temperature zone elevation model (GTEM) to assess the trends of climate change and temporal-spatial differences in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) using the annual and monthly mean temperatures from 1961–2010 at 144 meteorological stations in and near the TP. The results showed the following: (1) The TP has undergone robust warming over the study period, and the warming rate was 0.318°C/decade. The warming has accelerated during recent decades, especially in the last 20 years, and the warming has been most significant in the winter months, followed by the spring, autumn and summer seasons. (2) Spatially, the zones that became significantly smaller were the temperature zones of −6°C and −4°C, and these have decreased 499.44 and 454.26 thousand sq km from 1961 to 2010 at average rates of 25.1% and 11.7%, respectively, over every 5-year interval. These quickly shrinking zones were located in the northwestern and central TP. (3) The elevation dependency of climate warming existed in the TP during 1961–2010, but this tendency has gradually been weakening due to more rapid warming at lower elevations than in the middle and upper elevations of the TP during 1991–2010. The higher regions and some low altitude valleys of the TP were the most significantly warming regions under the same categorizing criteria. Experimental evidence shows that the GTEM is an effective method to analyse climate changes in high altitude mountainous regions.