Maternal winter body mass and not spring phenology determine annual calf production in an Arctic herbivore

Warming of the Arctic has resulted in earlier snowmelt and green‐up of plants in spring, potentially disrupting the synchrony between plant phenology and breeding phenology in herbivores. A negative relationship between offspring survival in West Greenland caribou and the timing of vegetation emergence was the first finding of such a mismatch in Arctic mammals. However, other studies indicate that the energy for foetal growth and early lactation is predominantly drawn from stored energy reserves typical of ‘capital’ breeders, suggesting that conditions well before spring influence calf production more than the timing of spring onset. Here we use 20 years of observations of marked Svalbard reindeer to evaluate determinants of annual recruitment, as measured by the presence of a calf at foot in mid‐summer. Spring temperatures and the enhanced vegetation index were used as proxies for spring onset, while data on body mass and pregnancy rates in late winter allowed us to determine maternal condition and the reproductive status before spring. Pregnancy rate, offspring survival and annual recruitment were all strongly correlated with average late winter adult female body mass (r = 0.87; r = 0.83; r = 0.92, respectively). Contrary to the findings in West Greenland, neither early calf survival nor annual recruitment were correlated with the two measures of annual variation in spring phenology (r = – 0.07, p = 0.8 and r = – 0.15, p = 0.6, respectively). We also revisit the Greenland data and reveal that the pattern of covariance between early and late measures of fecundity, as well as between early measures of fecundity and offspring survival, correspond with the results from Svalbard. Our results emphasize that conditions affecting maternal body mass during winter explain close to all the variation in recruitment, questioning the importance of the role of a mismatch between plant phenology and calving date.     

The relative role of winter and spring conditions: linking climate and landscape-scale plant phenology to alpine reindeer body mass

The relative importance of winter harshness and early summer foraging conditions are of prime interest when assessing the effect of global warming on Arctic and mountainous ecosystems. We explored how climate and vegetation onset (satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index data) determined individual performance in three reindeer populations (data on 27814 calves sampled over 11 years). Snow conditions, spring temperatures and topography were the main determinants of the onset of the vegetation. An earlier onset positively affected the body mass of calves born the following autumn, while there was no significant direct negative impact of the previous winter. This study underlines the major impact of winter and spring climatic conditions, determining the spring and summer food availability, and the subsequent growth of calves among alpine herbivores.     

Density-dependence vs. density-independence - linking reproductive allocation to population abundance and vegetation greenness

1. Recent studies have shown that optimal reproductive allocation depends on both climatic conditions and population density. We tested this hypothesis using six years of demographic data from eight reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations coupled with data on population abundance and vegetation greenness [measured using the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI)]. 2. Female spring body mass positively affected summer body mass gain, and lactating females were unable to compensate for harsh winters as efficiently as barren ones. Female spring body mass was highly sensitive to changes in population abundance and vegetation greenness and less dependent on previous autumn body mass and reproductive status. Lactating females were larger than barren females in the spring. Moreover, female autumn body mass was positively related to female autumn body mass and reproductive success and was not very sensitive to changes in vegetation greenness and population abundance. 3. Offspring autumn body mass was positively related to both maternal spring and autumn body mass, and as predicted from theory, offspring were more sensitive to changes in vegetation greenness and population abundance than adult females. A lagged cost of reproduction was present as larger females who were barren, the previous year produced larger offspring than equally sized females that successfully reproduced the previous year. 4. Reproductive success was negatively related to female autumn body mass and positively related to female spring body mass. Moreover, females who successfully reproduced the previous year experienced the highest reproductive success. The fact that negative density-dependence was only present for females that had successfully reproduced the previous year further support the hypothesis that reproduction is costly. 5. This study shows that female reindeer buffer their reproductive allocation according to expected winter conditions and that their buffering abilities were limited by population abundance and a lagged cost of reproduction and enhanced by vegetation greenness.     

Climatic effects on the breeding phenology and reproductive success of an arctic-nesting goose species

Climate warming is pronounced in the Arctic and migratory birds are expected to be among the most affected species. We examined the effects of local and regional climatic variations on the breeding phenology and reproductive success of greater snow geese ( Chen caerulescens atlantica ), a migratory species nesting in the Canadian Arctic. We used a long-term dataset based on the monitoring of 5447 nests and the measurements of 19 234 goslings over 16 years (1989–2004) on Bylot Island. About 50% of variation in the reproductive phenology of individuals was explained by spring climatic factors. High mean temperatures and, to a lesser extent, low snow cover in spring were associated with an increase in nest density and early egg-laying and hatching dates. High temperature in spring and high early summer rainfall were positively related to nesting success. These effects may result from a reduction in egg predation rate when the density of nesting geese is high and when increased water availability allows females to stay close to their nest during incubation recesses. Summer brood loss and production of young at the end of the summer increased when values of the summer Arctic Oscillation (AO) index were either very positive (low temperatures) or very negative (high temperatures), indicating that these components of the breeding success were most influenced by the regional summer climate. Gosling mass and size near fledging were reduced in years with high spring temperatures. This effect is likely due to a reduced availability of high quality food in years with early spring, either due to food depletion resulting from high brood density or a mismatch between hatching date of goslings and the timing of the peak of plant quality. Our analysis suggests that climate warming should advance the reproductive phenology of geese, but that high spring temperatures and extreme values of the summer AO index may decrease their reproductive success up to fledging.     

Forage plants of an Arctic‐nesting herbivore show larger warming response in breeding than wintering grounds,potentially disrupting migration phenology

During spring migration, herbivorous waterfowl breeding in the Arctic depend on peaks in the supply of nitrogen‐rich forage plants, following a “green wave” of grass growth along their flyway to fuel migration and reproduction. The effects of climate warming on forage plant growth are expected to be larger at the Arctic breeding grounds than in temperate wintering grounds, potentially disrupting this green wave and causing waterfowl to mistime their arrival on the breeding grounds. We studied the potential effect of climate warming on timing of food peaks along the migratory flyway of the Russian population of barnacle geese using a warming experiment with open‐top chambers. We measured the effect of 1.0–1.7°C experimental warming on forage plant biomass and nitrogen concentration at three sites along the migratory flyway (temperate wintering site, temperate spring stopover site, and Arctic breeding site) during 2 months for two consecutive years. We found that experimental warming increased biomass accumulation and sped up the decline in nitrogen concentration of forage plants at the Arctic breeding site but not at temperate wintering and stop‐over sites. Increasing spring temperatures in the Arctic will thus shorten the food peak of nitrogen‐rich forage at the breeding grounds. Our results further suggest an advance of the local food peak in the Arctic under 1–2°C climate warming, which will likely cause migrating geese to mistime their arrival at the breeding grounds, particularly considering the Arctic warms faster than the temperate regions. The combination of a shorter food peak and mistimed arrival is likely to decrease goose reproductive success under climate warming by reducing growth and survival of goslings after hatching.     

High nest failure but better nestling quality for early breeders in an alpine population of Northern Wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe)

Climate change is leading to the advancement of spring conditions, resulting in an earlier snowmelt and green-up, with highest rates of change in highly seasonal environments, including alpine habitats. Migratory birds breeding at high elevations need to time their arrival and lay dates accurately with this advancement, but also with the annually variable spring conditions at their breeding sites, to maximize nest survival probabilities and reproductive output. Nest survival probability and mean nestling mass were analysed in relation to lay date and habitat conditions in an alpine population of the migratory Northern Wheatear Oenanthe oenanthe collected over six consecutive breeding seasons in the Western Italian Alps. This open grassland species showed the lowest nest survival probability in years with an early onset of spring conditions. Within-season, nest survival was highest when breeding late, at lower elevations, and when grass cover and grass height were higher. Both across- and within-season, severe weather conditions may indirectly lead to higher early season nest failure rates by increasing predation risk. By contrast, mean nestling mass, and thus the quality of the fledglings, was lower when breeding late. This might be driven by a mismatch with the peak in food abundance. Breeding early is thus generally advantageous in terms of chick quality in our high-elevation population, but reproductive success is limited by the risk of nest failure that is higher in early springs and early in the season. This trade-off between breeding early and late may thus allow Northern Wheatears to maximize fitness under highly variable spring conditions. However, climate change may cause disruption to this trade-off, and shifts in phenology could become a threat for migratory alpine birds that might not be able to keep track of advancing spring conditions.     

Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food‐limited Arctic herbivore

The cumulative effects of climate warming on herbivore vital rates and population dynamics are hard to predict, given that the expected effects differ between seasons. In the Arctic, warmer summers enhance plant growth which should lead to heavier and more fertile individuals in the autumn. Conversely, warm spells in winter with rainfall (rain‐on‐snow) can cause ‘icing’, restricting access to forage, resulting in starvation, lower survival and fecundity. As body condition is a ‘barometer’ of energy demands relative to energy intake, we explored the causes and consequences of variation in body mass of wild female Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) from 1994 to 2015, a period of marked climate warming. Late winter (April) body mass explained 88% of the between‐year variation in population growth rate, because it strongly influenced reproductive loss, and hence subsequent fecundity (92%), as well as survival (94%) and recruitment (93%). Autumn (October) body mass affected ovulation rates but did not affect fecundity. April body mass showed no long‐term trend (coefficient of variation, CV = 8.8%) and was higher following warm autumn (October) weather, reflecting delays in winter onset, but most strongly, and negatively, related to ‘rain‐on‐snow’ events. October body mass (CV = 2.5%) increased over the study due to higher plant productivity in the increasingly warm summers. Density‐dependent mass change suggested competition for resources in both winter and summer but was less pronounced in recent years, despite an increasing population size. While continued climate warming is expected to increase the carrying capacity of the high Arctic tundra, it is also likely to cause more frequent icing events. Our analyses suggest that these contrasting effects may cause larger seasonal fluctuations in body mass and vital rates. Overall our findings provide an important ‘missing’ mechanistic link in the current understanding of the population biology of a keystone species in a rapidly warming Arctic.     

Habitat and weather influence body condition in white-tailed deer,Wisconsin, USA

In temperate and northern ecosystems where there are pronounced seasonal patterns in weather and available energy, there are corresponding patterns of body condition among white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). Body condition of white-tailed deer can affect survival and reproduction, which has large repercussions for state-level natural resource agencies that allocate hunting permits. In this study, we investigated how variation in winter weather, spring phenology, habitat composition, and browse quantity affected white-tailed deer body condition across a large spatial scale. Several body condition indicators (e.g., carcass mass, heart fat, antler size) were measured by hunters for 795 deer during September–December 2016–2018 in Wisconsin, USA. Winter severity in the previous year was an unreliable predictor of fall body condition of deer when winters were considered mild or moderate. The timing of spring green-up had a consistent effect on the body condition of all age and sex classes of deer. Earlier spring green-up resulted in heavier fawns and larger antlers among adult males. Region and spring green-up interacted to affect the heart fat of adult females. Earlier springs resulted in adult females in northern and central Wisconsin having a higher probability of heavy heart fat, whereas spring green-up had no effect on adult female heart fat in southern Wisconsin. Effects of habitat differed by age and sex class of deer, and by the body condition metric being evaluated, indicating that there are important physiological differences among age and sex classes of deer that are affected by the environment. Our study demonstrates that the hunting public can contribute large-scale, cost-effective, and quality data to deer monitoring and research projects. It is important that natural resource agencies be able to identify and recruit highly engaged members of the hunting public to ensure project success. The timing of spring green-up can have lasting effects on deer health that can be consistently observed the following fall, which is in contrast to the effects of winter severity that did not appear to persist when previous winters were mild or moderate. We encourage managers in northern or temperate regions to consider measures of spring green-up timing in conjunction with traditional winter severity when making deer population management decisions, such as antlerless tag allocation.     

Potential for an Arctic‐breeding migratory bird to adjust spring migration phenology to Arctic amplification

Arctic amplification, the accelerated climate warming in the polar regions, is causing a more rapid advancement of the onset of spring in the Arctic than in temperate regions. Consequently, the arrival of many migratory birds in the Arctic is thought to become increasingly mismatched with the onset of local spring, consequently reducing individual fitness and potentially even population levels. We used a dynamic state variable model to study whether Arctic long‐distance migrants can advance their migratory schedules under climate warming scenarios which include Arctic amplification, and whether such an advancement is constrained by fuel accumulation or the ability to anticipate climatic changes. Our model predicts that barnacle geese Branta leucopsis suffer from considerably reduced reproductive success with increasing Arctic amplification through mistimed arrival, when they cannot anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring from their wintering grounds. When geese are able to anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring, they are predicted to advance their spring arrival under Arctic amplification up to 44 days without any reproductive costs in terms of optimal condition or timing of breeding. Negative effects of mistimed arrival on reproduction are predicted to be somewhat mitigated by increasing summer length under warming in the Arctic, as late arriving geese can still breed successfully. We conclude that adaptation to Arctic amplification may rather be constrained by the (un)predictability of changes in the Arctic spring than by the time available for fuel accumulation. Social migrants like geese tend to have a high behavioural plasticity regarding stopover site choice and migration schedule, giving them the potential to adapt to future climate changes on their flyway.     

Warming, plant phenology and the spatial dimension of trophic mismatch for large herbivores

Temporal advancement of resource availability by warming in seasonal environments can reduce reproductive success of vertebrates if their own reproductive phenology does not also advance with warming. Indirect evidence from large-scale analyses suggests, however, that migratory vertebrates might compensate for this by tracking phenological variation across landscapes. Results from our two-year warming experiment combined with seven years of observations of plant phenology and offspring production by caribou (Rangifer tarandus) in Greenland, however, contradict evidence from large-scale analyses. At spatial scales relevant to the foraging horizon of individual herbivores, spatial variability in plant phenology was reduced--not increased--by both experimental and observed warming. Concurrently, offspring production by female caribou declined with reductions in spatial variability in plant phenology. By highlighting the spatial dimension of trophic mismatch, these results reveal heretofore unexpected adverse consequences of climatic warming for herbivore population ecology.     

Global climate change and reindeer: effects of winter weather on the autumn weight and growth of calves

Reindeer/caribou (Rangifer tarandus), which constitute a biological resource of vital importance for the physical and cultural survival of Arctic residents, and inhabit extremely seasonal environments, have received little attention in the global change debate. We investigated how body weight and growth rate of reindeer calves were affected by large-scale climatic variability [measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) winter index] and density in one population in central Norway. Body weights of calves in summer and early winter, as well as their growth rate (summer to early winter), were significantly influenced by density and the NAO index when cohorts were in utero. Males were heavier and had higher absolute growth than females, but there was no evidence that preweaning condition of male and female calves were influenced differently by the NAO winter index. Increasing NAO index had a negative effect on calves' body weight and growth rate. Increasing density significantly reduced body weight and growth rate of calves, and accentuated the effect of the NAO winter index. Winters with a higher NAO index are thus severe for reindeer calves in this area and their effects are associated with nutritional stress experienced by the dams during pregnancy or immediately after calving. Moreover, increased density may enhance intra-specific competition and limits food available at the individual level within cohorts. We conclude that if the current pattern of global warming continues, with greater change occurring in northern latitudes and during winter as is predicted, reduced body weight of reindeer calves may be a consequence in areas where winters with a high NAO index are severe. This will likely have an effect on the livelihood of many northern indigenous peoples, both economically and culturally.     

Age-specific changes in different components of reproductive output in female reindeer: terminal allocation or senescence?

Two different processes can lead to a change in individual reproductive output with age in long-lived iteroparous vertebrates. The senescence hypothesis predicts a decline of performance in old age, whereas the terminal allocation hypothesis predicts an increase. Using long-term (>30 years) individually based data of female reindeer, we first assessed age-specific variation in body mass and different components of reproductive output. Then we investigated the contribution of senescence and terminal allocation (the increase in components of reproductive output) processes for shaping observed patterns. We found that female reindeer body mass increased up to about 11.5 years of age, and decreased afterwards, supporting the senescence hypothesis. Calf birth mass, both in absolute terms or for a given female mass, first increased and then declined with female age, also supporting the senescence hypothesis. The female mass gain (June–September) decreased with increasing age, and female change in mass between 2 consecutive years decreased with female age, all patterns again supporting the senescence hypothesis. However, the autumn calf mass did not change with age. Calf body mass in autumn tended to be positively related to female mass gain, supporting a quality effect. Raising a calf had a marked negative effect on female mass gain, indicating energetic reproductive costs of raising a calf. Calf body mass in autumn did not influence yearly female mass change. Overall, our results provided consistent evidence for general effects of senescence on most components of reproductive output and highlighted that both individual heterogeneity and reproductive costs shape female reindeer reproductive tactics.     

Trophic mismatch and its effects on the growth of young in an Arctic herbivore

In highly seasonal environments, timing of breeding of organisms is typically set to coincide with the period of highest resource availability. However, breeding phenology may not change at a rate sufficient to keep up with rapid changes in the environment in the wake of climate change. The lack of synchrony between the phenology of consumers and that of their resources can lead to a phenomenon called trophic mismatch, which may have important consequences on the reproductive success of herbivores. We analyzed long‐term data (1991–2010) on climate, plant phenology and the reproduction of a long‐distance Arctic migrant, the greater snow goose (Chen caerulescens atlantica), in order to examine the effects of mismatched reproduction on the growth of young. We found that geese are only partially able to adjust their breeding phenology to compensate for annual changes in the timing of high‐quality food plants, leading to mismatches of up to 20 days between the two. The peak of nitrogen concentration in plants, an index of their nutritive quality for goslings, occurred earlier in warm springs with an early snow melt. Likewise, mismatch between hatch dates of young and date of peak nitrogen was more important in years with early snow melt. Gosling body mass and structural size at fledging was reduced when trophic mismatch was high, particularly when the difference between date of peak nitrogen concentration and hatching was >9 days. Our results support the hypothesis that trophic mismatch can negatively affect the fitness of Arctic herbivores and that this is likely to be exacerbated by rising global temperatures.     

Testing the match–mismatch hypothesis in bighorn sheep in the context of climate change

In species with long gestation, females commit to reproduction several months before parturition. If cues driving conception date are uncoupled from spring conditions, parturition could be mistimed. Mismatch may increase with global change if the rate of temporal changes in autumn cues differs from the rate of change in spring conditions. Using 17 years of data on climate and vegetation phenology, we show that autumn temperature and precipitation, but not vegetation phenology, explain parturition date in bighorn sheep. Although autumn cues drive the timing of conception, they do not predict conditions at parturition in spring. We calculated the mismatch between individual parturition date and spring green-up, assessed whether mismatch increased over time and investigated the consequences of mismatch on lamb neonatal survival, weaning mass and overwinter survival. Mismatch fluctuated over time but showed no temporal trend. Temporal changes in green-up date did not lead to major fitness consequence of mismatch. Detailed data on individually marked animals revealed no effect of mismatch on neonatal or overwinter survival, but lamb weaning mass was negatively affected by mismatch. Capital breeders might be less sensitive to mismatch than income breeders because they are less dependent on daily food acquisition. Herbivores in seasonal environments may access sufficient forage to sustain lactation before or after the spring ‘peak’ green-up, and partly mitigate the consequences of a mismatch. Thus, the effect of phenological mismatch on fitness may be affected by species life history, highlighting the complexity in quantifying trophic mismatches in the context of climate change.     

Effects of food abundance, density and climate change on reproduction in the sparrowhawk Accipiter nisus

The reproductive success of predators depends on abiotic environmental conditions, food abundance and population density, and food abundance, density and their interactions may respond to changes in climatic conditions. Timing of reproduction by five of the eight numerically most common prey of the sparrowhawk Accipiter nisus advanced significantly since 1971, during a period of temperature increase. There was no evidence that mean laying date or any other reproductive parameter of sparrowhawks changed consistently during the study period 1977–1997. Laying date advanced and percentage of unsuccessful female sparrowhawks decreased with beech mast in the current year, an index of food abundance for avian prey. Mean laying date of sparrowhawks was advanced in warmer springs, and although mean clutch size was not larger in warm than in cold springs, mean brood size of successful pairs and breeding success increased in such springs, showing that sparrowhawks enjoyed a fitness gain when reproducing early. The timing of sparrowhawk reproduction with respect to the peak in abundance of fledgling prey increased, from a good match between mean timing of fledging by prey and maximum demand for food by the predator in 1977, to reproduction occurring later than the peak in fledging prey availability in 1997. The size of the breeding population of sparrowhawks was not predicted by mean spring temperature, the size of the breeding population the previous year or beech mast crop. The size of the post-breeding population was predicted by size of the breeding and post-breeding population the previous year and by the proportion of unsuccessful females the current year. These findings imply that sparrowhawks did not respond to change in climate, although climate changed the timing of reproduction by the main prey species.     

Sex-specific differences in reindeer calf behavior and predation vulnerability

According to reproductive strategy theory, males in polygamousbreeding systems should invest in morphological or behavioralfeatures that increase reproductive success. When the earlydevelopment of such traits conflicts with predator protection,we expect that male calves will exhibit risk-taking behavior,such as high activity level and increasing distance from mother,to a greater extent than female calves. We investigated sexdifferences in mother–calf distance, calf activity levels,and calf mortality in a semi-domesticated reindeer (Rangifertarandus) population. The results show that male calves strayfarther away from their mothers, exhibit a higher level of locomotivebehavior in terms of play and walking, and are more vulnerableto predation than are female calves. Although mother–calfdistance increased over time in 1- to 6-month-old calves, noevidence was apparent for an increase in sex difference in mother–calfdistance over this period. The results suggest a trade-off betweenpredation vulnerability and investments in behavioral traitsthought to be important for future reproductive success andsuggest that these sex-related differences in behavior are apparentas early as 6 months of age.     

Use of climatic data to assess the effect of insect harassment on the autumn weight of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) calves

Considerable behavioural evidence supports harassment by insects as the most important causal link between warm summer temperatures and low body condition of reindeer Rangifer tarandus , and that insect activity is influenced by weather condition. However, much less is known about the effect of insect harassment on individual performance, measured as reduced weight gain during summer, and the related consequences on both the reindeer pastoral economy and reindeer as a biological resource. Using climatic data, this paper develops a simple index for the analysis of insect harassment that takes into consideration weather variables known to significantly affect insect activity and/or the level of insect harassment. The insect harassment index, which is based on mid-day ambient temperature ≥13 °C, wind speed <6 m/s and cloud cover <40%, is further used to test the hypothesis that insect harassment has a negative effect on reindeer performance during summer in three Norwegian populations. Results show that harassment by insects negatively affects the autumn weight of reindeer calves, most probably through reduced grazing time and increased energy expenditure, but also indirectly by negatively influencing milk production of the dam. Moreover, female calves were more vulnerable to insect harassment than males. Insect harassment may have consequences on future reproductive performance, calving time, calf birth weight and hence neonatal mortality, and thus affect reindeer productivity. The presented index is easy to estimate and may be used to quantify and compare harassment levels on various reindeer summer grazing areas for management purposes. Our results also suggest that the expected temperature increase in the course of global warming may increase the insect-related stress on reindeer.     

Observational evidence of risk-sensitive reproductive allocation in a long-lived mammal

Organisms should adopt a risk-sensitive reproductive allocation when summer reproductive allocation competes with survival in the coming winter. This trade off is shown through autumn female body mass, which acts as an insurance against unpredictable winter environmental conditions. We tested this hypothesis on female reindeer in a population that has experienced a time period of dramatic increase in abundance. Environmental conditions during winter were fairly stable (with the exception of 1 year). We conclude that increased population abundance (perhaps in interaction with winter environmental conditions) could have represented a worsening of winter environmental conditions as both autumn offspring and spring female body mass decreased during the course of the study. Moreover, we found that the cost of reproduction was related to environmental conditions as: (1) autumn body mass was larger for barren than for lactating females, and this difference was temporally highly variable; (2) lactating females produced smaller offspring than barren ones in the following year; and (3) reproductive output (offspring size) decreased over time. We also found evidence of quality effects as lactating females had a higher reproductive success in the following year. In sum, a worsening of winter conditions lead to: (1) decreased reproductive output; (2) lowered autumn body mass for lactating females; and (3) increased body mass for barren females. Since females reduce their reproductive allocation as winter conditions becomes more severe, we conclude that reindeer have adopted a risk-sensitive reproductive allocation.     

The Arctic Oscillation predicts effects of climate change in two trophic levels in a high-arctic ecosystem

During recent decades there has been a change in the circulation of atmospheric pressure throughout the Northern Hemisphere. These variations are expressed in the recently described Arctic Oscillation (AO), which has shown an upward trend (associated with winter warming in the eastern Arctic) during the last three decades. We analysed a 12‐year time series on growth of Cassiope tetragona (Lapland Cassiope) and a 21‐year time series on abundance of a Svalbard reindeer population. High values of the AO index were associated with reduced plant growth and reindeer population growth rate. The North Atlantic Oscillation index was not able to explain a significant proportion of the variance in either plant growth or reindeer population fluctuations. Thus, the AO index may be a better predictor for ecosystem effects of climate change in certain high‐arctic areas compared to the NAO index.     

Changes in high arctic tundra plant reproduction in response to long‐term experimental warming

We provide new information on changes in tundra plant sexual reproduction in response to long‐term (12 years) experimental warming in the High Arctic. Open‐top chambers (OTCs) were used to increase growing season temperatures by 1–2 °C across a range of vascular plant communities. The warming enhanced reproductive effort and success in most species; shrubs and graminoids appeared to be more responsive than forbs. We found that the measured effects of warming on sexual reproduction were more consistently positive and to a greater degree in polar oasis compared with polar semidesert vascular plant communities. Our findings support predictions that long‐term warming in the High Arctic will likely enhance sexual reproduction in tundra plants, which could lead to an increase in plant cover. Greater abundance of vegetation has implications for primary consumers – via increased forage availability, and the global carbon budget – as a function of changes in permafrost and vegetation acting as a carbon sink. Enhanced sexual reproduction in Arctic vascular plants may lead to increased genetic variability of offspring, and consequently improved chances of survival in a changing environment. Our findings also indicate that with future warming, polar oases may play an important role as a seed source to the surrounding polar desert landscape.