Predation Danger Can Explain Changes in Timing of Migration: The Case of the Barnacle Goose

Understanding stopover decisions of long-distance migratory birds is crucial for conservation and management of these species along their migratory flyway. Recently, an increasing number of Barnacle geese breeding in the Russian Arctic have delayed their departure from their wintering site in the Netherlands by approximately one month and have reduced their staging duration at stopover sites in the Baltic accordingly. Consequently, this extended stay increases agricultural damage in the Netherlands. Using a dynamic state variable approach we explored three hypotheses about the underlying causes of these changes in migratory behavior, possibly related to changes in (i) onset of spring, (ii) potential intake rates and (iii) predation danger at wintering and stopover sites. Our simulations showed that the observed advance in onset of spring contradicts the observed delay of departure, whereas both increased predation danger and decreased intake rates in the Baltic can explain the delay. Decreased intake rates are expected as a result of increased competition for food in the growing Barnacle goose population. However, the effect of predation danger in the model was particularly strong, and we hypothesize that Barnacle geese avoid Baltic stopover sites as a response to the rapidly increasing number of avian predators in the area. Therefore, danger should be considered as an important factor influencing Barnacle goose migratory behavior, and receive more attention in empirical studies.     

The onset of spring and timing of migration in two arctic nesting goose populations: the pink‐footed goose Anser bachyrhynchus and the barnacle goose Branta leucopsis

An earlier onset of spring has been recorded for many parts of Eurasia in recent decades. This has consequences for migratory species, both in changing the conditions encountered by individuals on reaching migratory sites and in affecting cues regulating the timing of migration where decisions to migrate are influenced by local environmental variables. Here we examine the timing of spring migration for two arctic goose populations, the pink‐footed goose Anser brachyrhynchus (during 1990–2003) and barnacle goose Branta leucopsis (during 1982–2003), which both breed on Svalbard. The satellite‐derived Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was used to express the onset of spring at their wintering and spring staging sites. Pink‐footed geese use several sites during spring migration, ranging from the southernmost wintering areas in Belgium to two spring staging areas in Norway, and distances between sites used along the flyway are relatively short. There was a positive correlation in the onset of spring between neighbouring sites, and the geese migrated earlier in early springs. Barnacle geese, on the other hand, have a long overseas crossing from their wintering grounds in Britain to spring staging areas in Norway. Although spring advanced in both regions, there was no corresponding correlation in the timing of onset of spring between their wintering and spring staging sites, and little evidence for barnacle geese migrating earlier over the whole study period. Hence, where geese can use spring conditions at one site as an indicator of the conditions they might encounter at the next, they have responded quickly to the advancement of spring, whereas in a situation where they cannot predict, they have not yet responded, despite the advancement of spring in the spring staging area.     

Forage plants of an Arctic‐nesting herbivore show larger warming response in breeding than wintering grounds,potentially disrupting migration phenology

During spring migration, herbivorous waterfowl breeding in the Arctic depend on peaks in the supply of nitrogen‐rich forage plants, following a “green wave” of grass growth along their flyway to fuel migration and reproduction. The effects of climate warming on forage plant growth are expected to be larger at the Arctic breeding grounds than in temperate wintering grounds, potentially disrupting this green wave and causing waterfowl to mistime their arrival on the breeding grounds. We studied the potential effect of climate warming on timing of food peaks along the migratory flyway of the Russian population of barnacle geese using a warming experiment with open‐top chambers. We measured the effect of 1.0–1.7°C experimental warming on forage plant biomass and nitrogen concentration at three sites along the migratory flyway (temperate wintering site, temperate spring stopover site, and Arctic breeding site) during 2 months for two consecutive years. We found that experimental warming increased biomass accumulation and sped up the decline in nitrogen concentration of forage plants at the Arctic breeding site but not at temperate wintering and stop‐over sites. Increasing spring temperatures in the Arctic will thus shorten the food peak of nitrogen‐rich forage at the breeding grounds. Our results further suggest an advance of the local food peak in the Arctic under 1–2°C climate warming, which will likely cause migrating geese to mistime their arrival at the breeding grounds, particularly considering the Arctic warms faster than the temperate regions. The combination of a shorter food peak and mistimed arrival is likely to decrease goose reproductive success under climate warming by reducing growth and survival of goslings after hatching.     

Assessing body condition and energy budget components by scoring abdominal profiles in free-ranging pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus

An abdominal profile index (API) was developed for pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus as a measure of body condition. On basis of carcass analysis of 56 adult geese with known API prior to collection, we found significant linear relationships between API against body mass, abdominal fat and total energy content. Hence, changes in API reflect net energy intake rates. As an example of the applicability of the calibration, we compared APIs of individually marked geese before and after long migration episodes and estimated the cost of flight at 8.9 kJ/km. In addition we estimated gain rates at three major staging sites along the spring flyway indicating an increase in fueling rates with latitude. Calibration of APIs and energy contents offers new opportunities for field studies of waterfowl energetics.     

Foraging behaviour and fuel accumulation of capital breeders during spring migration as derived from a combination of satellite‐ and ground‐based observations

The migration strategy of many capital breeders is to garner body stores along the flyway at distinct stopover sites. The rate at which they can fuel is likely to be strongly influenced by a range of factors, such as physiology, food availability, time available for foraging and perceived predation. We analysed the foraging behaviour and fuel accumulation of pink‐footed geese, an Arctic capital breeder, at their mid‐flyway spring stopover site and evaluated to what extent their behaviour and fuelling were related to physiological and external factors and how it differed from other stopovers along the flyway. We found that fuel accumulation rates of geese at the mid‐flyway site were limited by habitat availability rather than by digestive constraints. However, as the time available for foraging increased over the stopover season, geese were able to keep constant fuelling rate. Putting this in perspective, geese increased their daily net energy intake along the flyway corresponding to the increase in time available for foraging. The net energy intake per hour of foraging remained the same. Geese showed differences in their reaction to predators/disturbance between the sites, taking higher risks particularly at the final stopover site. Hence, perceived predation along the flyway may force birds to postpone the final fuel accumulation to the last stopover along the flyway. Flexibility in behaviour appears to be an important trait to ensure fitness in this capital breeder. Our findings are based on a new, improved method for estimating fuel accumulation of animals foraging in heterogeneous landscapes based on data obtained from satellite telemetry and habitat specific intake rates.     

Around the Mediterranean: an extreme example of loop migration in a long‐distance migratory passerine

An important issue in migration research is how small‐bodied passerines pass over vast geographical barriers; in European–African avian migration, these are represented by the Mediterranean Sea and the Sahara Desert. Eastern (passing eastern Mediterranean), central (passing Apennine Peninsula) and western (via western Mediterranean) major migration flyways are distinguished for European migratory birds. The autumn and spring migration routes may differ (loop migration) and there could be a certain level of individual flexibility in how individuals navigate themselves during a single migration cycle. We used light‐level loggers to map migration routes of barn swallows Hirundo rustica breeding in the centre of a wide putative contact zone between the northeastern and southernwestern European populations that differ in migration flyways utilised and wintering grounds. Our data documented high variation in migration patterns and wintering sites of tracked birds (n = 19 individuals) from a single breeding colony, with evidence for loop migration in all but one of the tracked swallows. In general, two migratory strategies were distinguished. In the first, birds wintering in a belt stretching from southcentral to southern Africa that used an eastern route for both the spring and autumn migration, then shifted their spring migration eastwards (anti‐clockwise loops, n = 12). In the second, birds used an eastern or central route to their wintering grounds in central Africa, shifting the spring migration route westward (clockwise loops, n = 7). In addition, we observed an extremely wide clockwise loop migration encompassing the entire Mediterranean, with one individual utilising both the eastern (autumn) and western (spring) migratory flyway during a single annual migration cycle. Further investigation is needed to ascertain whether clockwise migratory loops encircling the entire Mediterranean also occur other small long‐distance passerine species.     

Potential for an Arctic‐breeding migratory bird to adjust spring migration phenology to Arctic amplification

Arctic amplification, the accelerated climate warming in the polar regions, is causing a more rapid advancement of the onset of spring in the Arctic than in temperate regions. Consequently, the arrival of many migratory birds in the Arctic is thought to become increasingly mismatched with the onset of local spring, consequently reducing individual fitness and potentially even population levels. We used a dynamic state variable model to study whether Arctic long‐distance migrants can advance their migratory schedules under climate warming scenarios which include Arctic amplification, and whether such an advancement is constrained by fuel accumulation or the ability to anticipate climatic changes. Our model predicts that barnacle geese Branta leucopsis suffer from considerably reduced reproductive success with increasing Arctic amplification through mistimed arrival, when they cannot anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring from their wintering grounds. When geese are able to anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring, they are predicted to advance their spring arrival under Arctic amplification up to 44 days without any reproductive costs in terms of optimal condition or timing of breeding. Negative effects of mistimed arrival on reproduction are predicted to be somewhat mitigated by increasing summer length under warming in the Arctic, as late arriving geese can still breed successfully. We conclude that adaptation to Arctic amplification may rather be constrained by the (un)predictability of changes in the Arctic spring than by the time available for fuel accumulation. Social migrants like geese tend to have a high behavioural plasticity regarding stopover site choice and migration schedule, giving them the potential to adapt to future climate changes on their flyway.     

Central European Greylag Geese Anser anser show a shortening of migration distance and earlier spring arrival over 60 years

Global climate change can cause pronounced changes in species? migratory behaviour. Numerous recent studies have demonstrated climate‐driven changes in migration distance and spring arrival date in waterbirds, but detailed studies based on long‐term records of individual recapture or re‐sighting events are scarce. Using re‐sighting data from 430 marked individuals spanning a 60‐year period (winters 1956/1957 to 2015/2016), we assessed patterns in migration distance and spring arrival date, wintering‐site fidelity and survival in the increasing central European breeding population of Greylag Geese Anser anser. We demonstrate a long‐term decrease in migration distance, changes in the wintering range caused by winter partial short‐stopping, and the earlier arrival of geese on their breeding grounds. Greylag Geese marked on central Europe moulting grounds have not been recorded wintering in Spain since 1986 or in Tunisia and Algeria since 2004. The migration distance and spring arrival of geese indicated an effect of temperature at the breeding site and values of the NAO index. Greylag Geese migrate shorter distances and arrive earlier in milder winters. We suggest that shifts in the migratory behaviour of Central European Greylag Geese are individual temperature‐dependent decisions to take advantage of wintering grounds becoming more favourable closer to their breeding grounds, allowing birds to acquire breeding territories earlier.     

Snow conditions as an estimator of the breeding output in high-Arctic pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus

The Svalbard-breeding population of pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus has increased during the last decades and is giving rise to agricultural conflicts along their migration route, as well as causing grazing impacts on tundra vegetation. An adaptive flyway management plan has been implemented, which will be based on predictive population models including environmental variables expected to affect goose population development, such as weather conditions on the breeding grounds. A local study in Svalbard showed that snow cover prior to egg laying is a crucial factor for the reproductive output of pink-footed geese, and MODIS satellite images provided a useful estimator of snow cover. In this study, we up-scaled the analysis to the population level by examining various measures of snow conditions and compared them with the overall breeding success of the population as indexed by the proportion of juveniles in the autumn population. As explanatory variables, we explored MODIS images, satellite-based radar measures of onset of snow melt, winter NAO index, and the May temperature sum and May thaw days. To test for the presence of density dependence, we included the number of adults in the population. For 2000–2011, MODIS-derived snow cover (available since 2000) was the strongest indicator of breeding conditions. For 1981–2011, winter NAO and May thaw days had equal weight. Interestingly, there appears to have been a phase shift from density-dependent to density-independent reproduction, which is consistent with a hypothesis of released breeding potential due to the recent advancement of spring in Svalbard.     

Spring migratory routes and stopover duration of satellite‐tracked Eurasian Teals Anas crecca wintering in Italy

Identifying an organism's migratory strategies and routes has important implications for conservation. For most species of European ducks, information on the general course of migration, revealed by ringing recoveries, is available, whereas tracking data on migratory movements are limited to the largest species. In the present paper, we report the results of a tracking study on 29 Eurasian Teals, the smallest European duck, captured during the wintering period at three Italian sites. The departure date of spring migration was determined for 21 individuals, and for 15 the entire spring migratory route was reconstructed. Most ducks departed from wintering grounds between mid‐February and March following straight and direct routes along the Black Sea‐Mediterranean flyway. The breeding sites, usually reached by May, were spread from central to north‐Eastern Europe to east of the Urals. The migratory speed was slow (approximately 36 km/day on average) because most birds stopped for several weeks at stopover sites, mainly in south‐eastern Europe, especially at the very beginning of migration. The active flight migration segments were covered at much higher speeds, up to 872 km/day. Stopover duration tended to be shorter when birds were closer to their breeding site. These results, based on the largest satellite tracking effort for this species, revealed for the first time the main features of the migratory strategies of individual Teals wintering in Europe, such as the migration timing and speed and stopover localization and duration.     

Towards a new understanding of migration timing: slower spring than autumn migration in geese reflects different decision rules for stopover use and departure

According to migration theory and several empirical studies, long‐distance migrants are more time‐limited during spring migration and should therefore migrate faster in spring than in autumn. Competition for the best breeding sites is supposed to be the main driver, but timing of migration is often also influenced by environmental factors such as food availability and wind conditions. Using GPS tags, we tracked 65 greater white‐fronted geese Anser albifrons migrating between western Europe and the Russian Arctic during spring and autumn migration over six different years. Contrary to theory, our birds took considerably longer for spring migration (83 days) than autumn migration (42 days). This difference in duration was mainly determined by time spent at stopovers. Timing and space use during migration suggest that the birds were using different strategies in the two seasons: In spring they spread out in a wide front to acquire extra energy stores in many successive stopover sites (to fuel capital breeding), which is in accordance with previous results that white‐fronted geese follow the green wave of spring growth. In autumn they filled up their stores close to the breeding grounds and waited for supportive wind conditions to quickly move to their wintering grounds. Selection for supportive winds was stronger in autumn, when general wind conditions were less favourable than in spring, leading to similar flight speeds in the two seasons. In combination with less stopover time in autumn this led to faster autumn than spring migration. White‐fronted geese thus differ from theory that spring migration is faster than autumn migration. We expect our findings of different decision rules between the two migratory seasons to apply more generally, in particular in large birds in which capital breeding is common, and in birds that meet other environmental conditions along their migration route in autumn than in spring.     

Individual variation in migratory movements and winter behaviour of Iberian Lesser Kestrels Falco naumanni revealed by geolocators

The population decline of the Lesser Kestrel Falco naumanni has been the subject of studies across its Western Palaearctic breeding range, but little is known about its use of pre‐migratory areas or African wintering quarters. We used geolocators to describe the temporal and spatial patterns of Portuguese Lesser Kestrel migration and wintering behaviour. Data on the complete migration were obtained from four individuals and another three provided further information. Prior to southward migration, Lesser Kestrels showed two different behaviours: northward‐orientated movements to Spain and movements in the proximity of the breeding area. Autumn migration took place mostly in late September; spring departures occurred mainly in the first half of February. Wintering grounds included Senegal, Mauritania and Mali, with individuals overlapping considerably in Senegal. Movements registered within the wintering grounds suggest itinerant behaviour in relation to local flushes of prey. During spring migration, birds crossed the Sahara Desert through Mauritania, Western Sahara and Morocco before passing over the Mediterranean to reach Portugal. Autumn migration lasted 4.8 ± 1.1 days, and spring migration lasted 4.1 ± 0.3 days. The mean daily flight range varied between approximately 300 and 850 km for an entire journey of around 2500 km. Effective protection of roosting sites in both pre‐migratory and wintering areas and maintaining grasshopper populations in Sahelian wintering quarters appear crucial in preserving this threatened migratory raptor across its African–Eurasian flyway. There was no evidence of any deleterious effects of fitting birds with loggers.     

Interactions between land use,habitat use,and population increase in greater snow geese: what are the consequences for natural wetlands?

The North American greater snow goose population has increased dramatically during the last 40 years. We evaluated whether refuge creation, changes in land use on the wintering and staging grounds, and climate warming have contributed to this expansion by affecting the distribution, habitat use, body condition, and migration phenology of birds. We also reviewed the effects of the increasing population on marshes on the wintering grounds, along the migratory routes and on the tundra in summer. Refuges established before 1970 may have contributed to the initial demographic increase. The most important change, however, was the switch from a diet entirely based on marsh plants in spring and winter (rhizomes of Scirpus/Spartina) to one dominated by crops (corn/young grass shoots) during the 1970s and 1980s. Geese now winter further north along the US Atlantic coast, leading to reduced hunting mortality. Their migratory routes now include portions of southwestern Québec where corn production has increased exponentially. Since the mid‐1960s, average temperatures have increased by 1–2.4°C throughout the geographic range of geese, which may have contributed to the northward shift in wintering range and an earlier migration in spring. Access to spilled corn in spring improved fat reserves upon departure for the Arctic and may have contributed to a high fecundity. The population increase has led to intense grazing of natural wetlands used by geese although these habitats are still largely undamaged. The foraging in fields allowed the population to exceed limits imposed by natural marshes in winter and spring, but also prevented permanent damage because of their overgrazing.     

Migration Routes and Staging Areas of Trans-Saharan Turtle Doves Appraised from Light-Level Geolocators

The identification of migration routes, wintering grounds and stopover sites are crucial issues for the understanding of the Palearctic-African bird migration system as well as for the development of relevant conservation strategies for trans-Saharan migrants. Using miniaturized light-level geolocators we report a comprehensive and detailed year round track of a granivorous trans-Saharan migrant, the European Turtle Dove (Streptopelia turtur). From five recovered loggers, our data provide new insights on migratory journeys and winter destinations of Turtle Doves originating from a breeding population in Western France. Data confirm that Turtle Doves wintered in West Africa. The main wintering area encompassed Western Mali, the Inner Delta Niger and the Malian/Mauritanian border. Some individuals also extended their wintering ranges over North Guinea, North-West of Burkina Faso and the Ivory-Coast. Our results reveal that all individuals did not spend the winter period at a single location; some of them experienced a clear eastward shift of several hundred kilometres. We also found evidence for a loop migration pattern, with a post-breeding migration flyway lying west of the spring route. Finally, we found that on their way back to breeding grounds Turtle Doves needed to refuel after crossing the Sahara desert. Contrary to previous suggestions, our data reveal that birds used stopover sites for several weeks, presumably in Morocco and North Algeria. This later finding is a crucial issue for future conservation strategies because environmental conditions on these staging areas might play a pivotal role in population dynamics of this declining species.     

The pull of the Central Flyway? Veeries breeding in western Canada migrate using an ancestral eastern route

Understanding non‐breeding season movements and identifying wintering areas of different populations of migratory birds is important for establishing patterns of migratory connectivity over the annual cycle. We analyzed archival solar geolocation (N = 5) and global positioning data (N = 1) to investigate migration routes, stopover sites, and wintering areas of a western‐most breeding population of Veeries (Catharus fuscescens) in the Pemberton Valley, British Columbia, Canada. Geolocation data were analyzed using a Bayesian state‐space model to improve likely position estimates. We compared our results with those from a Veery population located ~250 km east across a mountain chain in the Okanagan Valley, British Columbia, and with an eastern population in Delaware, U.S.A. Migrating Veeries from the Pemberton Valley used an eastern trajectory through the Rocky Mountains to the Great Plains to join a central flyway during fall and spring migration, a route similar to that used by Veeries breeding in the Okanagan Valley. However, wintering destinations of Pemberton Valley birds were more varied, with inter‐individual wintering distances ~1000 km greater than birds from the Okanagan Valley population and ~500 km from the previously known winter range of Veeries. The observed eastern migration path likely follows an ancestral route that evolved following the most recent glacial retreat. Consistent with patterns observed from the Okanagan and Delaware populations, Veeries from the Pemberton Valley undertook an intra‐tropical migration on the wintering grounds, but this winter movement differed from those of previously studied populations. Such winter movements may thus be idiosyncratic or show coarse population associations. Intra‐wintering‐ground movements likely occur either in response to seasonal changes in habitat suitability or as a means of optimizing pre‐migratory fueling prior to long‐distance spring movements to North America.     

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The Lesser Crested Tern Thalasseus bengalensis emigratus breeding population in the Mediterranean is found exclusively in Libya, on the two coastal islands of Gara and Elba and one wetland on the mainland coast at Benghazi. In order to improve knowledge of the species migration to wintering quarters in West Africa, a ringing programme was conducted from 2006–2008 and 2009–2012. From a total of 1 354 nestlings ringed using metal and/or colour rings, 64 were recovered along their flyway and in their wintering range, representing 6.9% of birds ringed with both colour and metal rings. This provided the opportunity to collect information on post-natal movements (staging and wintering ranges), breeding philopatry and recruitment, in addition to a preliminary estimate of their migration journey duration. This paper indicates sighting and recovery distributions in space and time, highlighting the important areas for the species during its journey between breeding and wintering sites. The findings indicate that several areas where ringed terns stop-over during pre- and post-breeding migration journeys are not protected, causing an additional threat to their survival, as some wintering areas are also not protected. Conservation of this highly localised and threatened population needs not only to address protection at breeding sites but also at migratory stop-overs and wintering strongholds.     

Photoperiodic response may facilitate adaptation to climatic change in long-distance migratory birds

Recent climatic change is causing spring events in northern temperate regions to occur earlier in the year. As a result, migratory birds returning from tropical wintering sites may arrive too late to take full advantage of the food resources on their breeding grounds. Under these conditions, selection will favour earlier spring arrival that could be achieved by overwintering closer to the breeding grounds. However, it is unknown how daylength conditions at higher latitudes will affect the timing of life cycle stages. Here, we show in three species of Palaearctic-African migratory songbirds that a shortening of migration distance induces an advancement of springtime activities. Birds exposed to daylengths simulating migration to and wintering in southern Europe considerably advanced their spring migratory activity and testicular development. This response to the novel photoperiodic environment will enable birds wintering further north to advance spring arrival and to start breeding earlier. Thus, phenotypic flexibility in response to the photoperiod may reinforce selection for shorter migration distance if spring temperatures continue to rise.     

Environmental conditions at arrival to the wintering grounds and during spring migration affect population dynamics of barn swallows Hirundo rustica breeding in Northern Italy

Several populations of long-distance migratory birds are currently suffering steep demographic declines. The identification of the causes of such declines is difficult because population changes may be driven by events occurring in distant geographical areas during different phases of the annual life-cycle of migrants. Furthermore, wintering areas and migration routes of populations of small-sized species are still largely unknown, with few exceptions. In this paper we identified the critical phases of the annual life-cycle that most influence the population dynamics of a small passerine, the Barn Swallow Hirundo rustica. We used information on temporal dynamics of a population breeding in Northern Italy, whose wintering range and timing of migration have been recently described by miniaturised tracking dataloggers. Our results indicated that primary productivity in the wintering grounds in the month when most individuals arrive from autumn migration and primary productivity in an area that is probably a stopover site during spring migration, influenced population dynamics more than habitat conditions at the breeding grounds. By using annual variation in primary productivity at the wintering grounds and stopover sites as predictors, we replicated the observed interannual population changes with great accuracy. However, the steep decline recently suffered by the population could be replicated only by including a constant annual decline in the model, suggesting that changes in primary productivity only predicted the interannual variation around the long-term trend. Our study therefore suggests the existence of critical periods during wintering and migration that may have large impact on population fluctuations of migrant birds.     

Circannual variation in blood parasitism in a sub‐Saharan migrant passerine bird,the garden warbler

Knowing the natural dynamics of pathogens in migratory birds is important, for example, to understand the factors that influence the transport of pathogens to and their transmission in new geographical areas, whereas the transmission of other pathogens might be restricted to a specific area. We studied haemosporidian blood parasites of the genera Plasmodium, Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon in a migratory bird, the garden warbler Sylvia borin. Birds were sampled in spring, summer and early autumn at breeding grounds in Sweden, on migration at Capri, Italy and on arrival and departure from wintering staging areas in West Africa: mapping recoveries of garden warblers ringed in Fennoscandia and Capri showed that these sites are most probably on the migratory flyway of garden warblers breeding at Kvismaren. Overall, haemosporidian prevalence was 39%, involving 24 different parasite lineages. Prevalence varied significantly over the migratory cycle, with relatively high prevalence of blood parasites in the population on breeding grounds and at the onset of autumn migration, followed by marked declines in prevalence during migration both on spring and autumn passage. Importantly, we found that when examining circannual variation in the different lineages, significantly different prevalence profiles emerged both between and within genera. Our results suggest that differences in prevalence profiles are the result of either different parasite transmission strategies or coevolution between the host and the various parasite lineages. When separating parasites into common vs. rare lineages, we found that two peaks in the prevalence of rare parasites occur; on arrival at Swedish breeding grounds, and after the wintering period in Africa. Our results stress the importance of appropriate taxonomic resolution when examining host‐parasite interactions, as variation in prevalence both between and within parasite genera can show markedly different patterns.     

Habitat loss exacerbates pathogen spread: An Agent-based model of avian influenza infection in migratory waterfowl

Habitat availability determines the distribution of migratory waterfowl along their flyway, which further influences the transmission and spatial spread of avian influenza viruses (AIVs). The extensive habitat loss in the East Asian-Australasian Flyway (EAAF) may have potentially altered the virus spread and transmission, but those consequences are rarely studied. We constructed 6 fall migration networks that differed in their level of habitat loss, wherein an increase in habitat loss resulted in smaller networks with fewer sites and links. We integrated an agent-based model and a susceptible-infected-recovered model to simulate waterfowl migration and AIV transmission. We found that extensive habitat loss in the EAAF can 1) relocate the outbreaks northwards, responding to the distribution changes of wintering waterfowl geese, 2) increase the outbreak risk in remaining sites due to larger goose congregations, and 3) facilitate AIV transmission in the migratory population. In addition, our modeling output was in line with the predictions from the concept of “migratory escape”, i.e., the migration allows the geese to “escape” from the location where infection risk is high, affecting the pattern of infection prevalence in the waterfowl population. Our modeling shed light on the potential consequences of habitat loss in spreading and transmitting AIV at the flyway scale and suggested the driving mechanisms behind these effects, indicating the importance of conservation in changing spatial and temporal patterns of AIV outbreaks.