Pedigree-Free Estimates of Heritability in the Wild: Promising Prospects for Selfing Populations

Estimating the genetic variance available for traits informs us about a population’s ability to evolve in response to novel selective challenges. In selfing species, theory predicts a loss of genetic diversity that could lead to an evolutionary dead-end, but empirical support remains scarce. Genetic variability in a trait is estimated by correlating the phenotypic resemblance with the proportion of the genome that two relatives share identical by descent (‘realized relatedness’). The latter is traditionally predicted from pedigrees (Φ_A: expected value) but can also be estimated using molecular markers (average number of alleles shared). Nevertheless, evolutionary biologists, unlike animal breeders, remain cautious about using marker-based relatedness coefficients to study complex phenotypic traits in populations. In this paper, we review published results comparing five different pedigree-free methods and use simulations to test individual-based models (hereafter called animal models) using marker-based relatedness coefficients, with a special focus on the influence of mating systems. Our literature review confirms that Ritland’s regression method is unreliable, but suggests that animal models with marker-based estimates of relatedness and genomic selection are promising and that more testing is required. Our simulations show that using molecular markers instead of pedigrees in animal models seriously worsens the estimation of heritability in outcrossing populations, unless a very large number of loci is available. In selfing populations the results are less biased. More generally, populations with high identity disequilibrium (consanguineous or bottlenecked populations) could be propitious for using marker-based animal models, but are also more likely to deviate from the standard assumptions of quantitative genetics models (non-additive variance).     

Testing marker-based estimates of heritability in the wild

Marker-based estimates of heritability are an attractive alternative to pedigree-based methods for estimating quantitative genetic parameters in field studies where it is difficult or impossible to determine relationships and pedigrees. Here I test the ability of the marker-based method to estimate heritability of a suite of traits in a wild population of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) using marker data from 32 microsatellite loci. I compared marker-based estimates with estimates obtained using a pedigree and the animal model. Marker-based estimates of heritability were imprecise and downwardly biased. The high degree of uncertainty in marker-based estimates suggests that the method may be sufficient to detect the presence of genetic variance for highly heritable traits, but not sufficiently reliable to estimate genetic parameters.     

COLONY: a program for parentage and sibship inference from multilocus genotype data

Pedigrees, depicting genealogical relationships between individuals, are important in several research areas. Molecular markers allow inference of pedigrees in wild species where relationship information is impossible to collect by observation. Marker data are analysed statistically using methods based on Mendelian inheritance rules. There are numerous computer programs available to conduct pedigree analysis, but most software is inflexible, both in terms of assumptions and data requirements. Most methods only accommodate monogamous diploid species using codominant markers without genotyping error. In addition, most commonly used methods use pairwise comparisons rather than a full-pedigree likelihood approach, which considers the likelihood of the entire pedigree structure and allows the simultaneous inference of parentage and sibship. Here, we describe colony, a computer program implementing full-pedigree likelihood methods to simultaneously infer sibship and parentage among individuals using multilocus genotype data. colony can be used for both diploid and haplodiploid species; it can use dominant and codominant markers, and can accommodate, and estimate, genotyping error at each locus. In addition, colony can carry out these inferences for both monoecious and dioecious species. The program is available as a Microsoft Windows version, which includes a graphical user interface, and a Macintosh version, which uses an R-based interface.     

Impacts of early viability selection on management of inbreeding and genetic diversity in conservation

Maintaining genetic diversity is a crucial goal of intensive management of threatened species, particularly for those populations that act as sources for translocation or re‐introduction programmes. Most captive genetic management is based on pedigrees and a neutral theory of inheritance, an assumption that may be violated by selective forces operating in captivity. Here, we explore the conservation consequences of early viability selection: differential offspring survival that occurs prior to management or research observations, such as embryo deaths in utero. If early viability selection produces genotypic deviations from Mendelian predictions, it may undermine management strategies intended to minimize inbreeding and maintain genetic diversity. We use empirical examples to demonstrate that straightforward approaches, such as comparing litter sizes of inbred vs. noninbred breeding pairs, can be used to test whether early viability selection likely impacts estimates of inbreeding depression. We also show that comparing multilocus genotype data to pedigree predictions can reveal whether early viability selection drives systematic biases in genetic diversity, patterns that would not be detected using pedigree‐based statistics alone. More sophisticated analysis combining genomewide molecular data with pedigree information will enable conservation scientists to test whether early viability selection drives deviations from neutrality across wide stretches of the genome, revealing whether this form of selection biases the pedigree‐based statistics and inference upon which intensive management is based.     

Assessing the genetic diversity in small farm animal populations

Genetic variation is vital for the populations to adapt to varying environments and to respond to artificial selection; therefore, any conservation and development scheme should start from assessing the state of variation in the population. There are several marker-based and pedigree-based parameters to describe genetic variation. The most suitable ones are rate of inbreeding and effective population size, because they are not dependent on the amount of pedigree records. The acceptable level for effective population size can be considered from different angles leading to a conclusion that it should be at least 50 to 100. The estimates for the effective population size can be computed from the genealogical records or from demographic and marker information when pedigree data are not available. Marker information could also be used for paternity analysis and for estimation of coancestries. The sufficient accuracy in marker-based parameters would require typing thousands of markers. Across breeds, diversity is an important source of variation to rescue problematic populations and to introgress new variants. Consideration of adaptive variation brings new aspects to the estimation of the variation between populations.     

The relevance of pedigrees in the conservation genomics era

Over the past 50 years conservation genetics has developed a substantive toolbox to inform species management. One of the most long-standing tools available to manage genetics—the pedigree—has been widely used to characterize diversity and maximize evolutionary potential in threatened populations. Now, with the ability to use high throughput sequencing to estimate relatedness, inbreeding, and genome-wide functional diversity, some have asked whether it is warranted for conservation biologists to continue collecting and collating pedigrees for species management. In this perspective, we argue that pedigrees remain a relevant tool, and when combined with genomic data, create an invaluable resource for conservation genomic management. Genomic data can address pedigree pitfalls (e.g., founder relatedness, missing data, uncertainty), and in return robust pedigrees allow for more nuanced research design, including well-informed sampling strategies and quantitative analyses (e.g., heritability, linkage) to better inform genomic inquiry. We further contend that building and maintaining pedigrees provides an opportunity to strengthen trusted relationships among conservation researchers, practitioners, Indigenous Peoples, and Local Communities.     

EVOLUTIONARY POTENTIAL OF A LARGE MARINE VERTEBRATE: QUANTITATIVE GENETIC PARAMETERS IN A WILD POPULATION

Estimating quantitative genetic parameters ideally takes place in natural populations, but relatively few studies have overcome the inherent logistical difficulties. For this reason, no estimates currently exist for the genetic basis of life-history traits in natural populations of large marine vertebrates. And yet such estimates are likely to be important given the exposure of this taxon to changing selection pressures, and the relevance of life-history traits to population productivity. We report such estimates from a long-term (1995–2007) study of lemon sharks ( Negaprion brevirostris ) conducted at Bimini, Bahamas. We obtained these estimates by genetically reconstructing a population pedigree (117 dams, 487 sires, and 1351 offspring) and then using an "animal model" approach to estimate quantitative genetic parameters. We find significant additive genetic (co)variance, and hence moderate heritability, for juvenile length and mass. We also find substantial maternal effects for these traits at age-0, but not age-1, confirming that genotype–phenotype interactions between mother and offspring are strongest at birth; although these effects could not be parsed into their genetic and nongenetic components. Our results suggest that human-imposed selection pressures (e.g., size-selective harvesting) might impose noteworthy evolutionary change even in large marine vertebrates. We therefore use our findings to explain how maternal effects may sometimes promote maladaptive juvenile traits, and how lemon sharks at different nursery sites may show "constrained local adaptation." We also show how single-generation pedigrees, and even simple marker-based regression methods, can provide accurate estimates of quantitative genetic parameters in at least some natural systems.     

Wild pedigrees: the way forward

Metrics derived from pedigrees are key to investigating several major issues in evolutionary biology, including the quantitative genetic architecture of traits, inbreeding depression, and the evolution of cooperation and inbreeding avoidance. There is merit in studying these issues in natural populations experiencing spatially and temporally variable environmental conditions, since these analyses may yield different results from laboratory studies and allow us to understand population responses to rapid environmental change. Partial pedigrees are now available for several natural populations which are the subject of long-term individual-based studies, and analyses using these pedigrees are leading to important insights. Accurate pedigree construction supported by molecular genetic data is now feasible across a wide range of taxa, and even where only imprecise pedigrees are available it is possible to estimate the consequences of imprecision for the questions of interest. In outbred diploid populations, the pedigree approach is superior to analyses based on marker-based pairwise estimators of coancestry.     

A comparison of microsatellite-based pairwise relatedness estimators

Studies of inbreeding depression or kin selection require knowledge of relatedness between individuals. If pedigree information is lacking, one has to rely on genotypic information to infer relatedness. In this study we investigated the performance (absolute and relative) of 10 marker-based relatedness estimators using allele frequencies at microsatellite loci obtained from natural populations of two bird species and one mammal species. Using Monte Carlo simulations we show that many factors affect the performance of estimators and that different sets of loci promote the use of different estimators: in general, there is no single best-performing estimator. The use of locus-specific weights turns out to greatly improve the performance of estimators when marker loci are used that differ strongly in allele frequency distribution. Microsatellite-based estimates are expected to explain between 25 and 79% of variation in true relatedness depending on the microsatellite dataset and on the population composition (i.e. the frequency distribution of relationship in the population). We recommend performing Monte Carlo simulations to decide which estimator to use in studies of pairwise relatedness.     

Performance of marker-based relatedness estimators in natural populations of outbred vertebrates

Knowledge of relatedness between pairs of individuals plays an important role in many research areas including evolutionary biology, quantitative genetics, and conservation. Pairwise relatedness estimation methods based on genetic data from highly variable molecular markers are now used extensively as a substitute for pedigrees. Although the sampling variance of the estimators has been intensively studied for the most common simple genetic relationships, such as unrelated, half- and full-sib, or parent-offspring, little attention has been paid to the average performance of the estimators, by which we mean the performance across all pairs of individuals in a sample. Here we apply two measures to quantify the average performance: first, misclassification rates between pairs of genetic relationships and, second, the proportion of variance explained in the pairwise relatedness estimates by the true population relatedness composition (i.e., the frequencies of different relationships in the population). Using simulated data derived from exceptionally good quality marker and pedigree data from five long-term projects of natural populations, we demonstrate that the average performance depends mainly on the population relatedness composition and may be improved by the marker data quality only within the limits of the population relatedness composition. Our five examples of vertebrate breeding systems suggest that due to the remarkably low variance in relatedness across the population, marker-based estimates may often have low power to address research questions of interest.     

Pedigree reconstruction in wild cichlid fish populations

It is common practice to use microsatellites to detect parents and their offspring in wild and captive populations, in order to reconstruct a pedigree. However, correct inference is often constrained by a number of factors, including the absence of demographic data and ignorance regarding the completeness of parental sampling. Here we present a new Bayesian estimator that simultaneously estimates the pedigree and the size of the unsampled population. The method is robust to genotyping error, and can estimate pedigrees in the absence of demographic data. Using a large-scale microsatellite assay in four wild cichlid fish populations of Lake Tanganyika (1000 individuals in total), we assess the performance of the Bayesian estimator against the most popular assignment program, Cervus. We found small but significant pedigrees in each of the tested populations using the Bayesian procedure, but Cervus had very high type I error rates when the size of the unsampled population was assumed to be lower than what it was. The need of pedigree relationships to infer adaptive processes in natural populations places strong constraints on sampling design and identification of multigenerational pedigrees in natural populations.     

The influence of nonrandom extra‐pair paternity on heritability estimates derived from wild pedigrees

Quantitative genetic analysis is often fundamental for understanding evolutionary processes in wild populations. Avian populations provide a model system due to the relative ease of inferring relatedness among individuals through observation. However, extra‐pair paternity (EPP) creates erroneous links within the social pedigree. Previous work has suggested this causes minor underestimation of heritability if paternal misassignment is random and hence not influenced by the trait being studied. Nevertheless, much literature suggests numerous traits are associated with EPP and the accuracy of heritability estimates for such traits remains unexplored. We show analytically how nonrandom pedigree errors can influence heritability estimates. Then, combining empirical data from a large great tit (Parus major) pedigree with simulations, we assess how heritability estimates derived from social pedigrees change depending on the mode of the relationship between EPP and the focal trait. We show that the magnitude of the underestimation is typically small (<15%). Hence, our analyses suggest that quantitative genetic inference from pedigrees derived from observations of social relationships is relatively robust; our approach also provides a widely applicable method for assessing the consequences of nonrandom EPP.     

Pedigree analysis for the genetic management of group‐living species

Captive breeding programs are an important tool for the conservation of endangered species. These programs are commonly managed using pedigrees containing information about the history of each individual's family, such as breeding pairs and parentage. However, there are some species that are kept in groups where it is hard to distinguish between particular individuals within the group, making it very difficult to record any information at an individual level. Currently, software and methods commonly used for registering and analyzing pedigrees to help manage populations at an individual level are not adequate for managing these group‐living species. Therefore, there is a need to further develop these tools and methodologies for pedigree analysis to better manage group‐living species. PMx is a program used for the management of ex situ populations in zoos and aquariums. We adapted the pedigree analysis method implemented in PMx to analyze pedigrees (records of descendant lineages) of group‐living species. In addition, we developed a group pedigree data entry sheet and group2PMx, a converter program that enables group datasets to be imported into PMx. We show how pedigree analysis of a group‐living species can be used for population management using the studbook of the endangered Texas blind cave salamander Eurycea rathbuni. Such analyses of the pedigree of groups can improve the management of group‐living species in ex situ breeding programs. Firstly, it enables better management decisions based on more accurate genetic measures between groups, allowing for greater control of inbreeding. Secondly, it can improve the conditions in which group‐living species are held by adapting husbandry practices to better reflect conditions of these species living in the wild. The use of the spreadsheet and group2PMx extends the application of PMx_, allowing conservation managers and other institutions outside the zoo and aquarium community to easily import and analyze their pedigree data.     

Petersen and removal population size estimates: combining methods to adjust and interpret results when assumptions are violated

Synopsis We present ways to test the assumptions of the Petersen and removal methods of population size estimation and ways to adjust the estimates if violations of the assumptions are found. We were motivated by the facts that (1) results of using both methods are commonly reported without any reference to the testing of assumptions, (2) violations of the assumptions are more likely to occur than not to occur in natural populations, and (3) the estimates can be grossly in error if assumptions are violated. We recognize that in many cases two days in the field is the most time fish biologists can spend in obtaining a population estimate, so the use of alternative models of population estimation that require fewer assumptions is precluded. Hence, for biologists operating with these constraints and only these biologists, we describe and recommend a two-day technique that combines aspects of both capture-recapture and removal methods. We indicate how to test: most of the assumptions of both methods and how to adjust the population estimates obtained if violations of the assumptions occur. We also illustrate the use of this combined method with data from a field study. The results of this application further emphasize the importance of testing the assumptions of whatever method is used and making appropriate adjustments to the population size estimates for any violations identified.     

Historical Pedigree Reconstruction from Extant Populations Using PArtitioning of RElatives (PREPARE)

Recent technological improvements in the field of genetic data extraction give rise to the possibility of reconstructing the historical pedigrees of entire populations from the genotypes of individuals living today. Current methods are still not practical for real data scenarios as they have limited accuracy and assume unrealistic assumptions of monogamy and synchronized generations. In order to address these issues, we develop a new method for pedigree reconstruction, , which is based on formulations of the pedigree reconstruction problem as variants of graph coloring. The new formulation allows us to consider features that were overlooked by previous methods, resulting in a reconstruction of up to 5 generations back in time, with an order of magnitude improvement of false-negatives rates over the state of the art, while keeping a lower level of false positive rates. We demonstrate the accuracy of compared to previous approaches using simulation studies over a range of population sizes, including inbred and outbred populations, monogamous and polygamous mating patterns, as well as synchronous and asynchronous mating.     

Marker-based estimation of the coefficient of coancestry in hybrid breeding programmes

Molecular markers allow to estimate the pairwise relatedness between the members of a breeding pool when their selection history is no longer available or has become too complex for a classical pedigree analysis. The field of population genetics has several estimation procedures at its disposal, but when the genotyped individuals are highly selected inbred lines, their application is not warranted as the theoretical assumptions on which these estimators were built, usually linkage equilibrium between marker loci or even Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium, are not met. An alternative approach requires the availability of a genotyped reference set of inbred lines, which allows to correct the observed marker similarities for their inherent upward bias when used as a coancestry measure. However, this approach does not guarantee that the resulting coancestry matrix is at least positive semi-definite (psd), a necessary condition for its use as a covariance matrix. In this paper we present the weighted alikeness in state (WAIS) estimator. This marker-based coancestry estimator is compared to several other commonly applied relatedness estimators under realistic hybrid breeding conditions in a number of simulations. We also fit a linear mixed model to phenotypical data from a commercial maize breeding programme and compare the likelihood of the different variance structures. WAIS is shown to be psd which makes it suitable for modelling the covariance between genetic components in linear mixed models involved in breeding value estimation or association studies. Results indicate that it generally produces a low root mean squared error under different breeding circumstances and provides a fit to the data that is comparable to that of several other marker-based alternatives. Recommendations for each of the examined coancestry measures are provided.     

Predicting Quantitative Traits With Regression Models for Dense Molecular Markers and Pedigree

The availability of genomewide dense markers brings opportunities and challenges to breeding programs. An important question concerns the ways in which dense markers and pedigrees, together with phenotypic records, should be used to arrive at predictions of genetic values for complex traits. If a large number of markers are included in a regression model, marker-specific shrinkage of regression coefficients may be needed. For this reason, the Bayesian least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) (BL) appears to be an interesting approach for fitting marker effects in a regression model. This article adapts the BL to arrive at a regression model where markers, pedigrees, and covariates other than markers are considered jointly. Connections between BL and other marker-based regression models are discussed, and the sensitivity of BL with respect to the choice of prior distributions assigned to key parameters is evaluated using simulation. The proposed model was fitted to two data sets from wheat and mouse populations, and evaluated using cross-validation methods. Results indicate that inclusion of markers in the regression further improved the predictive ability of models. An R program that implements the proposed model is freely available.     

Strategies for determining kinship in wild populations using genetic data

Knowledge of kin relationships between members of wild animal populations has broad application in ecology and evolution research by allowing the investigation of dispersal dynamics, mating systems, inbreeding avoidance, kin recognition, and kin selection as well as aiding the management of endangered populations. However, the assessment of kinship among members of wild animal populations is difficult in the absence of detailed multigenerational pedigrees. Here, we first review the distinction between genetic relatedness and kinship derived from pedigrees and how this makes the identification of kin using genetic data inherently challenging. We then describe useful approaches to kinship classification, such as parentage analysis and sibship reconstruction, and explain how the combined use of marker systems with biparental and uniparental inheritance, demographic information, likelihood analyses, relatedness coefficients, and estimation of misclassification rates can yield reliable classifications of kinship in groups with complex kin structures. We outline alternative approaches for cases in which explicit knowledge of dyadic kinship is not necessary, but indirect inferences about kinship on a group‐ or population‐wide scale suffice, such as whether more highly related dyads are in closer spatial proximity. Although analysis of highly variable microsatellite loci is still the dominant approach for studies on wild populations, we describe how the long‐awaited use of large‐scale single‐nucleotide polymorphism and sequencing data derived from noninvasive low‐quality samples may eventually lead to highly accurate assessments of varying degrees of kinship in wild populations.     

Simulation of pedigree genotypes by random walks.

A random walk method, based on the Metropolis algorithm, is developed for simulating the distribution of trait and linkage marker genotypes in pedigrees where trait phenotypes are already known. The method complements techniques suggested by Ploughman and Boehnke and by Ott that are based on sequential sampling of genotypes within a pedigree. These methods are useful for estimating the power of linkage analysis before complete study of a pedigree is undertaken. We apply the random walk technique to a partially penetrant disease, schizophrenia, and to a recessive disease, ataxia-telangiectasia. In the first case we show that accessory phenotypes with higher penetrance than that of schizophrenia itself may be crucial for effective linkage analysis, and in the second case we show that impressionistic selection of informative pedigrees may be misleading.     

Impact of reconstructed pedigrees on progeny-test breeding values in red spruce

Pedigrees reconstructed through DNA marker assigned paternities in polymix (PMX) and open pollinated (OP) progeny tests were analyzed using mixed models to test the effect of unequal male reproductive success and pedigree errors on quantitative genetic parameters. The reconstructed pedigree increased heritabilities in the larger PMX test. Increased heritability resulted from adding the paternities to the pedigree per se, not by correcting the male reproductive bias by specifying the exact pedigree. Removing hypothesized pedigree errors had no effect on quantitative parameters, either because the magnitude of the errors was too small (PMX) or the progeny test was too small to detect variance components reliably (OP). Although there was no advantage in backwards selection, the increased additive variance, heritabilities and accuracy of progeny with assigned paternities in the pedigree, should permit forward selection of offspring with greater genetic gain and complete control of coancestry for future breeding decisions. Some possible breeding population structures with the new genetic information are discussed.