Timing of spring migration in birds: long-term trends, North Atlantic Oscillation and the significance of different migration routes

We studied long-term trends and the yearly variation in mean spring passage time in 36 passerine bird species trapped at Ottenby Bird Observatory in south-eastern Sweden. Between the years 1952–2002, data were available for 22–45 years depending on species. Most long-distance migrant species passed progressively earlier over the study period (range: 2.5 days earlier to 0.7 days later per 10 years, with an average of 0.9 days earlier per 10 years). The annual variation in timing of migration in most species, regardless of migration distance, correlated negatively with the winter index of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a large-scale climate phenomenon influencing the climate in the North Atlantic region. Birds passed earlier after mild and humid winters, corresponding to the high phase of the NAO. This corroborates the pattern found at a nearby migration site with a comparable dataset (Helgoland, 600 km WSW of Ottenby). However, short/medium-distance migrant species at Ottenby, in contrast to the situation at Helgoland, have shown no general trend of earlier passage in recent years. This was probably a consequence of the shorter study period at Ottenby, which included only the last 22–32 years (41 years at Helgoland), when the NAO showed no significant trend. At the species-specific level, the long-term trends in passage time were similar at the two sites, and there was some congruence to the extent that a given species was affected by NAO. Long-distance migrants wintering south and south-east of the breeding grounds showed some of the strongest changes in long-term trends (passing progressively earlier) at Ottenby, and for some of these species passage time varied negatively with NAO. Obviously, and contrary to previous suggestions, variations in NAO also influence birds migrating through eastern Europe, although the direct or indirect mechanisms through which this is achieved are unknown.     

Spring arrival response to climate change in birds: a case study from eastern Europe

This paper analyses the dependence of the first spring arrival dates of short/medium- and long-distance migrant bird species on climate warming in eastern Europe. The timing of arrival of the selected species at the observation site correlates with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, air temperature, atmospheric pressure, precipitation and wind characteristics. A positive correlation of fluctuations in winter and spring air temperatures with variations in the NAO index has been established in eastern Europe. Positive winter NAO index values are related to earlier spring arrival of birds in the eastern Baltic region and vice versa—arrival is late when the NAO index is negative. The impact of climate warming on the bird’s life cycle depends on local or regional climate characteristics. We tested the hypothesis that differences in climate indices between North Africa and Europe can influence the timing of spring arrival. Our results support the hypothesis that differences in first spring arrival dates between European populations occur after individuals cross the Sahara. We assume that the endogenous programme of migration control in short/medium-distance migrants synchronises with the changing environment on their wintering grounds and along their migration routes, whereas in long-distance migrants it is rather with environmental changes in the second part of their migratory route in Europe. Our results strongly indicate that the mechanism of dynamic balance in the interaction between the endogenous regulatory programme and environmental factors determines the pattern of spring arrival, as well as migration timing.     

Climate and the complexity of migratory phenology: sexes,migratory distance,and arrival distributions

The intra- and inter-season complexity of bird migration has received limited attention in climatic change research. Our phenological analysis of 22 species collected in Chicago, USA, (1979–2002) evaluates the relationship between multi-scalar climate variables and differences (1) in arrival timing between sexes, (2) in arrival distributions among species, and (3) between spring and fall migration. The early migratory period for earliest arriving species (i.e., short-distance migrants) and earliest arriving individuals of a species (i.e., males) most frequently correlate with climate variables. Compared to long-distance migrant species, four times as many short-distance migrants correlate with spring temperature, while 8 of 11 (73%) of long-distance migrant species’ arrival is correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). While migratory phenology has been correlated with NAO in Europe, we believe that this is the first documentation of a significant association in North America. Geographically proximate conditions apparently influence migratory timing for short-distance migrants while continental-scale climate (e.g., NAO) seemingly influences the phenology of Neotropical migrants. The preponderance of climate correlations is with the early migratory period, not the median of arrival, suggesting that early spring conditions constrain the onset or rate of migration for some species. The seasonal arrival distribution provides considerable information about migratory passage beyond what is apparent from statistical analyses of phenology. A relationship between climate and fall phenology is not detected at this location. Analysis of the within-season complexity of migration, including multiple metrics of arrival, is essential to detect species’ responses to changing climate as well as evaluate the underlying biological mechanisms.     

Climatic responses in spring migration of boreal and arctic birds in relation to wintering area and taxonomy

Large‐scale climate fluctuations, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), have a marked effect on the timing of spring migration of birds. It has however been suggested that long‐distance migrants wintering in Africa could respond less to NAO than short‐distance migrants wintering in Europe, making them more vulnerable to climatic changes. We studied whether migratory boreal and arctic bird species returning from different wintering areas show differences in responses to the NAO in the timing of their spring migration. We used data on 75 species from two bird observatories in northern Europe (60°N). By extending the examination to the whole distribution of spring migration and to a taxonomically diverse set of birds, we aimed at finding general patterns of the effects of climate fluctuation on the timing of avian migration. Most species arrived earlier after winters with high NAO index. The degree of NAO‐response diminished with the phase of migration: the early part of a species’ migratory population responded more strongly than the later part. Early phase waterfowl responded strongest to NAO, but in later phases their response faded to non‐significant. This pattern may be related to winter severity and/or ice conditions in the Baltic. In the two other groups, gulls and waders and passerines, all phases of migration responded to NAO and fading with phase was non‐significant. The difference between waterfowl and other groups may be related to differences between the phenological development of their respective macrohabitats. Wintering area affected the strength of NAO response in a complicated way. On average medium distance migrants responded most strongly, followed by short‐distance migrants and partial migrants. Our results concerning the response of long‐distance migrants were difficult to interpret: there is an overall weak yet statistically significant effect, but patterns with phase of migration need further study. Our results highlight the importance of examining the whole distribution of migration and warrant the use of data sets from several sampling sites when studying climatic effects on the timing of avian life‐history events.     

Challenging a 15‐year‐old claim: The North Atlantic Oscillation index as a predictor of spring migration phenology of birds

Many migrant bird species that breed in the Northern Hemisphere show advancement in spring arrival dates. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is one of the climatic variables that have been most often investigated and shown to be correlated with these changes in spring arrival. Although the NAO is often claimed to be a good predictor or even to have a marked effect on interannual changes in spring migration phenology of Northern Hemisphere breeding birds, the results on relations between spring migration phenology and NAO show a large variety, ranging from no, over weak, to a strong association. Several factors, such as geographic location, migration phase, and the NAO index time window, have been suggested to partly explain these observed differences in association. A combination of a literature meta‐analysis, and a meta‐analysis and sliding time window analysis of a dataset of 23 short‐ and long‐distance migrants from the constant‐effort trapping garden at Helgoland, Germany, however, paints a completely different picture. We found a statistically significant overall effect size of the NAO on spring migration phenology (coefficient = ?0.14, SE = 0.054), but this on average only explains 0%–6% of the variance in spring migration phenology across all species. As such, the value and biological meaning of the NAO as a general predictor or explanatory variable for climate change effects on migration phenology of birds, seems highly questionable. We found little to no definite support for previously suggested factors, such as geographic location, migration phenology phase, or the NAO time window, to explain the heterogeneity in correlation differences. We, however, did find compelling evidence that the lack of accounting for trends in both time series has led to strongly inflated (spurious) correlations in many studies (coefficient = ?0.13, SE = 0.019).     

The influence of climate on the timing and rate of spring bird migration

Ecological processes are changing in response to climatic warming. Birds, in particular, have been documented to arrive and breed earlier in spring and this has been attributed to elevated spring temperatures. It is not clear, however, how long-distance migratory birds that overwinter thousands of kilometers to the south in the tropics cue into changes in temperature or plant phenology on northern breeding areas. We explored the relationships between the timing and rate of spring migration of long-distance migratory birds, and variables such as temperature, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and plant phenology, using mist net capture data from three ringing stations in North America over a 40-year period. Mean April/May temperatures in eastern North America varied over a 5°C range, but with no significant trend during this period. Similarly, we found few significant trends toward earlier median capture dates of birds. Median capture dates were not related to the NAO, but were inversely correlated to spring temperatures for almost all species. For every 1°C increase in spring temperature, median capture dates of migratory birds averaged, across species, one day earlier. Lilac (Syringa vulgaris) budburst, however, averaged 3 days earlier for every 1°C increase in spring temperature, suggesting that the impact of temperature on plant phenology is three times greater than on bird phenology. To address whether migratory birds adjust their rate of northward migration to changes in temperature, we compared median capture dates for 15 species between a ringing station on the Gulf Coast of Louisiana in the southern USA with two stations approximately 2,500 km to the north. The interval between median capture dates in Louisiana and at the other two ringing stations was inversely correlated with temperature, with an average interval of 22 days, that decreased by 0.8 days per 1°C increase in temperature. Our results suggest that, although the onset of migration may be determined endogenously, the timing of migration is flexible and can be adjusted in response to variation in weather and/or phenology along migration routes.     

Climate change leads to decreasing bird migration distances

Global climate change has led to warmer winters in NW Europe, shortening the distance between suitable overwintering areas and the breeding areas of many bird species. Here we show that winter recovery distances have decreased over the past seven decades, for birds ringed during the breeding season in the Netherlands between 1932 and 2004. Of the 24 species included in the analysis, we found in 12 a significant decrease of the distance to the wintering site. Species from dry, open areas shortened their distance the most, species from wet, open areas the least, while woodland species fall in between the other two habitats. The decline in migration distance is likely due to climate change, as migration distances are negatively correlated with the Dutch temperatures in the winter of recovery. With a shorter migration distance, species should be better able to predict the onset of spring at their breeding sites and this could explain the stronger advancement of arrival date found in several short distance species relative to long-distance migrants.     

Lack of sperm production and sperm storage by arctic-nesting shorebirds during spring migration

Birds nesting at high latitudes may copulate during migration to arrive on the nesting grounds ready to breed. We surveyed 12 species of shorebirds during spring migration to determine whether (1) males produced abundant sperm and (2) females harboured functional sperm storage tubules (SSTs). Sperm production by males on migration was rare. Only four of seven species (9.8% of 41 males) of long-distance migrants harboured sperm, whereas all four species (100% of eight males) of short-distance migrants held sperm. In females, no long-distance migrants held sperm in their SSTs ( n  = 28 females) and SSTs were small compared to long-distance migrants collected on their breeding grounds. Our results indicate that shorebirds nesting at high latitudes were generally not reproductively active during migration and that any sexual behaviour on migration is unlikely to lead directly to fertilizations.     

Why is timing of bird migration advancing when individuals are not?

Recent advances in spring arrival dates have been reported in many migratory species but the mechanism driving these advances is unknown. As population declines are most widely reported in species that are not advancing migration, there is an urgent need to identify the mechanisms facilitating and constraining these advances. Individual plasticity in timing of migration in response to changing climatic conditions is commonly proposed to drive these advances but plasticity in individual migratory timings is rarely observed. For a shorebird population that has significantly advanced migration in recent decades, we show that individual arrival dates are highly consistent between years, but that the arrival dates of new recruits to the population are significantly earlier now than in previous years. Several mechanisms could drive advances in recruit arrival, none of which require individual plasticity or rapid evolution of migration timings. In particular, advances in nest-laying dates could result in advanced recruit arrival, if benefits of early hatching facilitate early subsequent spring migration. This mechanism could also explain why arrival dates of short-distance migrants, which generally return to breeding sites earlier and have greater scope for advance laying, are advancing more rapidly than long-distance migrants.     

Spring arrival of birds depends on the North Atlantic Oscillation

The timing of arrival of 81 migratory species in response to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was studied at two Finnish bird observatories (1970–99). Timing was determined for the first migrants and for the peak of migration, as well as for the early, median and late phases of migration, defined as the dates when the seasonal cumulative sum of birds reached 5%, 50% and 95%, respectively. For most species, the timing of arrival correlated negatively with the NAO in all phases of migration: the correlation was significant for 79% of species studied. Thus, most species arrived in Finland early when the NAO was positive and indicative of mild and rainy winters in northern Europe. Although all phases of migration correlated negatively with the NAO, the correlations were more negative for the early than for the late phases of migration. Since the NAO did not show a significant trend during the study period, the correlations indicate that the timing of birds followed stochastic fluctuations in the NAO. This finding suggests that most Finnish migratory birds are able to adjust the timing of spring arrival in response to climatic change without time delay.     

Variable shifts in spring and autumn migration phenology in North American songbirds associated with climate change

Monitoring studies find that the timing of spring bird migration has advanced in recent decades, especially in Europe. Results for autumn migration have been mixed. Using data from Powdermill Nature Reserve, a banding station in western Pennsylvania, USA, we report an analysis of migratory timing in 78 songbird species from 1961 to 2006. Spring migration became significantly earlier over the 46-year period, and autumn migration showed no overall change. There was much variation among species in phenological change, especially in autumn. Change in timing was unrelated to summer range (local vs. northern breeders) or the number of broods per year, but autumn migration became earlier in neotropical migrants and later in short-distance migrants. The migratory period for many species lengthened because late phases of migration remained unchanged or grew later as early phases became earlier. There was a negative correlation between spring and autumn in long-term change, and this caused dramatic adjustments in the amount of time between migrations: the intermigratory periods of 10 species increased or decreased by > 15 days. Year-to-year changes in timing were correlated with local temperature (detrended) and, in autumn, with a regional climate index (detrended North Atlantic Oscillation). These results illustrate a complex and dynamic annual cycle in songbirds, with responses to climate change differing among species and migration seasons.     

Long-distance migration timing of Tringa sandpipers adjusted to recent climate change

Capsule Evidence for earlier spring migration of Tringa sandpipers after warmer winters, but no clear pattern concerning autumn migration timing.

Aim To analyse the timing of migration of three Tringa sandpipers between 1966 and 2002 with respect to recent global warming on a local and a hemispheric scale.

Methods I analysed long-term migration timing variation in Greenshank Tringa nebularia, Spotted Redshank T. erythropus and Wood Sandpiper T. glareola at four Central European staging sites. Variation in passage onset, median and end per migration period was analysed using stepwise regression with respect to variation in (i) local abundance, residence time and age-dependent abundance as an estimate of breeding success and (ii) climate at the staging sites, snowmelt at the presumed central breeding area and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

Results All three species consistently showed an overall spring migration advance and autumn migration delay. Autumn passage timing varied with both climatic conditions at the breeding area and breeding success, while in 43% of all cases spring passage correlated with local and hemispheric climate variation.

Conclusion The distinction between population dynamic and climatic effects on timing of autumn migration requires separate data for local adult and juvenile passage or a larger sample of sites. In spring, the data strongly suggest a flexible response of migration timing to local weather conditions and the hemispheric variation of the North Atlantic Oscillation. This indicates that even long-distance migrants are able to adjust their overall migration pattern to fluctuating environmental conditions on a phenotypic basis.     

Climate change and timing of spring migration in the long-distance migrant Ficedula hypoleuca in central Europe: the role of spatially different temperature changes along migration routes

Coinciding with increasing spring temperatures in Europe, many migrants have advanced their arrival or passage times over the last decades. However, some species, namely long-distance migrants, could be constrained in their arrival dates due to their largely inherited migratory behaviour and thus a likely inflexibility in their response to exogenous factors. To examine this hypothesis for pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca), we tested the effects of the temperature regimes along their migration routes north of the Sahara on their arrival times in central Europe. To do so, we developed a site-independent large-scale approach based on temperature data available on the Internet. Temperature regimes along the migration routes of pied flycatchers within Europe convincingly correlate with their first arrival times. It can be concluded that the progression of spring migration in this species is strongly influenced by temperature en route. Because of the recent inconsistent climatic changes in various parts of Europe, we hypothesize that individuals migrating along different routes will be unequally affected by further climatic changes.     

Long-term trends in first arrival and first egg laying dates of some migrant and resident bird species in northern Italy

Climate change is affecting the phenology of seasonal events in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere, as shown by several studies of birds’ timing of migration and reproduction. Here, we analyse the long-term (1982–2006) trends of first arrival dates of four long-distance migratory birds [swift (Apus apus), nightingale (Luscinia megarhynchos), barn swallow (Hirundo rustica), and house martin (Delichon urbicum)] and first egg laying dates of two migrant (swift, barn swallow) and two resident species [starling (Sturnus vulgaris), Italian sparrow (Passer italiae)] at a study site in northern Italy. We also addressed the effects of local weather (temperature and precipitation) and a climate index (the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO) on the interannual variability of phenological events. We found that the swift and the barn swallow significantly advanced both arrival and laying dates, whereas all other species did not show any significant temporal trend in either arrival or laying date. The earlier arrival of swifts was explained by increasing local temperatures in April, whereas this was not the case for arrival dates of swallows and first egg laying dates of both species. In addition, arrival dates of house martins were earlier following high NAO winters, while nightingale arrival was earlier when local spring rainfall was greater. Finally, Italian sparrow onset of reproduction was anticipated by greater spring rainfall, but delayed by high spring NAO anomalies, and swift’s onset of reproduction was anticipated by abundant rainfall prior to reproduction. There were no significant temporal trends in the interval between onset of laying and arrival in either the swift or the barn swallow. Our findings therefore indicate that birds may show idiosyncratic responses to climate variability at different spatial scales, though some species may be adjusting their calendar to rapidly changing climatic conditions.     

A reversal of the shift towards earlier spring phenology in several Mediterranean reptiles and amphibians during the 1998–2013 warming slowdown

Herps, especially amphibians, are particularly susceptible to climate change, as temperature tightly controls many parameters of their biological cycle—above all, their phenology. The timing of herps’ activity or migration period—in particular the dates of their first appearance in spring and first breeding—and the shift to earlier dates in response to warming since the last quarter of the 20^th century has often been described up to now as a nearly monotonic trend towards earlier phenological events. In this study, we used citizen science data opportunistically collected on reptiles and amphibians in the northern Mediterranean basin over a period of 32 years to explore temporal variations in herp phenology. For 17 common species, we measured shifts in the date of the species’ first spring appearance—which may be the result of current changes in climate—and regressed the first appearance date against temperatures and precipitations. Our results confirmed the expected overall trend towards earlier first spring appearances from 1983 to 1997, and show that the first appearance date of both reptiles and amphibians fits well with the temperature in late winter. However, the trend towards earlier dates was stopped or even reversed in most species between 1998 and 2013. We interpret this reversal as a response to cooling related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the late winter and early spring. During the positive NAO episodes, for certain species only (mainly amphibians), the effect of a warm weather, which tends to advance the phenology, seems to be counterbalanced by the adverse effects of the relative dryness.     

Changes in spring arrival of Nearctic-Neotropical migrants attributed to multiscalar climate

Climate-related changes associated with the California marine ecosystem have been documented; however, there are no studies assessing changes in terrestrial vertebrate phenology on the Pacific coast of western North America. We analyze the spring phenology of 21 Nearctic-Neotropical migratory songbird species in central and northern CA. Using observational and banding data at multiple sites, we evaluate evidence for a change in arrival timing being linked to either nonclimatic or multiscalar climatic explanations. Using correlation analysis, of the 13 species with a significant ( P <0.10) change in arrival, the arrival timing of 10 species (77%) is associated with both temperature and a large-scale climate oscillation index (El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO; North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO; and/or Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO) at least at one location. Eight of the 13 species (62%) are advancing their migratory timing. All species for which spring arrival is associated with climate at multiple locations are exhibiting changes ( n =5) and all species lacking evidence for association between migration phenology and climate ( n =3) exhibit no change. Migrants tend to arrive earlier in association with warmer temperatures, positive NAO indices, and stronger ENSO indices. Twelve species negatively correlate ( P ≤0.05) with local or regional temperature at least at one location; five species negatively correlate with ENSO. Eleven species' arrival is correlated ( P ≤0.05) with NAO; 10 are negatively associated. After an exhaustive literature search, this is apparently the first documentation of an association between NAO and migratory phenology in western North America.     

Effect of global warming on the timing of migration and breeding of passerine birds in the 20th century

Long-term monitoring of the dates of arrival, breeding, and autumn migration in 25 passerine bird species on the Kurshskaya (Courland) Spit, the Baltic Sea, has shown that spring migration and nesting in most species wintering in Europe or Africa have shifted to earlier dates in the past two decades, whereas the dates of autumn migration in most species studied have not changed significantly. In 16 bird species, a significant negative correlation of the timing of arrival and breeding with the average spring air temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO) in February and March was revealed. In years with early and warm springs, birds arrived at the spit and nested considerably earlier than in years with cold springs. The dates of autumn migration in most species studied largely depended on the timing of nesting but not on weather conditions in autumn. The data obtained indicate that the main factor responsible for long-term changes in the timing of arrival, nesting, and autumn migrations of passerine birds in the Baltic Region is climate fluctuations that led to considerable changes in thermal conditions in the Northern Hemisphere in the 20th century. The hypothesis is proposed that recent climate warming has caused changes in the timing of not only the arrival of birds in Europe but also of their spring migrations from Africa. Further changes in the dates of passerine bird arrival and breeding in the Palearctic in subsequent years will largely depend on the dynamics of winter and spring air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere, whereas the timing of autumn migrations will be determined mainly by the dates of their arrival and nesting.     

Bird migration times, climate change, and changing population sizes

Past studies of bird migration times have shown great variation in migratory responses to climate change. We used 33 years of bird capture data (1970–2002) from Manomet, Massachusetts to examine variation in spring migration times for 32 species of North American passerines. We found that changes in first arrival dates – the unit of observation used in most studies of bird migration times – often differ dramatically from changes in the mean arrival date of the migration cohort as a whole. In our study, the earliest recorded springtime arrival date for each species occurred 0.20 days later each decade. In contrast, the mean arrival dates for birds of each species occurred 0.78 days earlier each decade. The difference in the two trends was largely explained by declining migration cohort sizes, a factor not examined in many previous studies. We found that changes in migration cohort or population sizes may account for a substantial amount of the variation in previously documented changes in migration times. After controlling for changes in migration cohort size, we found that climate variables, migration distance, and date of migration explained portions of the variation in migratory changes over time. In particular, short-distance migrants appeared to respond to changes in temperature, while mid-distance migrants responded particularly strongly to changes in the Southern Oscillation Index. The migration times of long-distance migrants tended not to change over time. Our findings suggest that previously reported changes in migration times may need to be reinterpreted to incorporate changes in migration cohort sizes.     

A matter of timing: changes in the first date of arrival and last date of departure of Australian migratory birds

Although there is substantial evidence that Northern Hemisphere species have responded to climatic change over the last few decades, there is little documented evidence that Southern Hemisphere species have responded in the same way. Here, we report that Australian migratory birds have undergone changes in the first arrival date (FAD) and last date of departure (LDD) of a similar magnitude as species from the Northern Hemisphere. We compiled data on arrival and departure of migratory birds in south‐east Australia since 1960 from the published literature, Bird Observer Reports, and personal observations from bird watchers. Data on the FAD for 24 species and the LDD for 12 species were analyzed. Sixteen species were short‐ to middle‐distance species arriving at their breeding grounds, seven were long‐distance migrants arriving at their nonbreeding grounds, and one was a middle‐distance migrant also arriving at its nonbreeding ground. For 12 species, we gathered data from more than one location, enabling us to assess the consistency of intraspecific trends at different locations. Regressions of climate variables against year show that across south‐east Australia average annual maximum and minimum temperatures have increased by 0.17°C and 0.13°C decade^?1 since 1960, respectively. Over this period there has been an average advance in arrival of 3.5 days decade^?1; 16 of the 45 time‐series (representing 12 of the 24 species studied) showed a significant trend toward earlier arrival, while only one time‐series showed a significant delay. Conversely, there has been an average delay in departure of 5.1 days decade^?1; four of the 21 departure time‐series (four species) showed a significant trend toward later departure, while one species showed a significant trend toward earlier departure. However, differences emerge between the arrival and departure of short‐ to middle‐distance species visiting south‐east Australia to breed compared with long‐distance species that spend their nonbreeding period here. On average, short‐ to middle‐distance migrants have arrived at their breeding grounds 3.1 days decade^?1 earlier and delayed departure by 8.1 days decade^?1, thus extending the time spent in their breeding grounds by ～11 days decade^?1. The average advance in arrival at the nonbreeding grounds of long‐distance migrants is 6.8 days decade^?1. These species, however, have also advanced departure by an average of 6.9 days decade^?1. Hence, the length of stay has not changed but rather, the timing of events has advanced. The patterns of change in FAD and LDD of Australian migratory birds are of a similar magnitude to changes undergone by Northern Hemisphere species, and add further evidence that the modest warming experienced over the past few decades has already had significant biological impacts on a global scale.     

Changes in the timing of spring and autumn migration in North American migrant passerines during a period of global warming

Butler (2003) used first arrival dates (FADs) of 103 migrant birds in northeastern USA and found that both long-distance migrants (LDMs; wintering south of the USA) and short-distance migrants (SDMs; wintering in the southern USA) arrived earlier in the second half of the 20th century than they had in the first, consistent with scenarios of global warming; the trend was stronger in SDMs. Using FADs to characterize migration systems can be problematic because they are data from one tail of a distribution, they comprise a mostly male population and they may not correlate well with the balance of the migration period. FADs also provide no information about autumn migration. This paper uses a banding dataset from Long Point Bird Observatory, Ontario, for 14 passerines for a period of global warming (1975–2000), taking these issues into account. The data were filtered to minimize effects of unequal netting effort (147 491 resulting records), and the passage dates then calculated in each season of each year for the 1st, 2nd and 3rd quartiles for regression analysis. Only two of 13 species analysed in the spring showed significantly earlier passage times, although the overall trend was towards earlier spring migration, especially among SDMs. Autumn responses were more prevalent, however, and in some cases more dramatic with six of 13 species showing delayed migration (four SDMs, two LDMs). Two LDMs exhibited earlier autumn migration. Where earlier spring migration occurred, both sexes appeared to contribute to the change. Where delayed migration occurred in autumn, both sexes and both adults and hatch-year birds appeared to contribute in at least some cases. The spring FAD results are consistent with those of Butler, but when the whole migration is considered, change is far from universal in spring and is in fact more substantial and complex in autumn.