基于改进TOPSIS方法的三峡库区生态敏感区土地利用系统健康评价

土地利用系统健康评价研究能够有效引导土地合理利用,协调城市发展与自然生态保护之间的矛盾。构建基于PSR模型的土地利用系统健康评价指标体系,并采用改进TOPSIS方法对三峡库区生态敏感区的典型区域—重庆市进行实证分析。结果表明:1)研究区土地利用系统健康综合分值整体呈现T型带状分布格局,可分为四个健康等级,即健康、临界健康、不健康、病态。2)渝东北、渝东南和重庆市西南片区部分地区因其土地生态系统脆弱敏感,土地利用风险性大和生态系统稳定性差,土地生态系统呈现病态和不健康状态,属于高风险-高压力区域;重庆市主城区环线区域因其属于城市核心拓展区和人类活动频繁区域,人口压力指数和土地利用压力指数较大,土地利用风险性较小,健康度较为良好,是低风险-中度压力区域。3)PSR模型能够较好地改变现有研究主要关注自然资源环境的状况,更准确地反映土地利用系统健康的各要素之间的关系和影响土地生态系统健康的关键因素,为三峡库区生态敏感区土地利用系统健康状态起到一定的预警作用。4)以改进TOPsis方法计算土地利用系统健康指数,消除了不同指标量纲的影响,并能充分利用原始数据的信息,能充分反映各方案之间的差距,客观真实的反映实际情况。5)为保障三峡库区生态敏感区土地利用系统的健康发展,应加强土地利用规划与调整,控制人类过度开发,维持生态系统正常功能。     

北京市生态用地规划与管理对策

不合理土地开发加速了对自然生态系统的干扰和侵占,导致生态系统服务功能下降,危机区域生态安全,开展生态用地规划是构建区域生态安全格局的基础。合理规划和管理不同土地利用类型的数量和空间分布对区域可持续发展具有重要意义。目前我国广泛应用的土地利用分类体系主要以土地的社会经济属性为基础,忽视其生态属性,导致以提供生态系统服务为主、保障生态安全的土地缺乏保护机制,具有重要生态功能的土地得不到有效保护。以北京市为例,建立了北京市生态用地分类与规划的思路与程序,在明确北京市生态安全与生态系统服务功能的关系基础上分析了北京市生态系统服务功能重要性及其空间格局,并进行了北京市生态用地规划。研究规划了保障北京市生态安全的7类生态用地:地表水涵养与保护用地、地下水保护用地、生物多样性保护用地、水土保持用地、河流防护用地、公路防护用地和城市绿地,总面积5137.37km2,占北京市域面积的31.31%。最后从生态用地识别和划分、将生态用地融入土地利用分类体系、生态用地管理措施和对策3个方面探讨了生态用地规划和管理的方法与措施。研究结果为北京市土地利用规划和有效管理提供依据,也为其它地区的生态用地规划提供参考。     

多情景模拟下重庆市土地利用变化对生态系统健康的影响

模拟多情景下区域土地利用变化引起生态系统健康状况改变,对优化用地格局和保障区域生态安全具有重要意义。基于重庆市2000-2020年土地利用和生态系统健康动态演变特征,运用生态系统健康模型和斑块生成土地利用模拟(PLUS)模型模拟自然发展(ND)、生态保护(EP)和城镇发展(UD)三种情景下土地利用变化对生态系统健康的影响程度。结果表明:(1)2000-2020年建设用地扩张迅速,耕地面积减少最多,主要向林地和建设用地转移;生态系统健康状况整体呈现向好趋势,但区域差异显著。(2)2030年土地利用类型仍以耕地、林地为主,ND、EP和UD情景的建设用地规模较2020年分别增加63.59%、44.54%和100.13%,中心城区成为建设用地扩张集聚地。(3)2030年ND和UD情景的生态系统健康值较2020年均减小,建设用地增加和林地减少成为其健康退化的重要原因;而EP情景的健康值呈上升趋势,与反映生态系统健康对土地利用变化响应弹性结果相反,可见EP情景下的土地利用优化是实现区域生态系统健康可持续发展的有效途径。研究结果可为研究区生态系统保护管理与土地利用政策优化提供参考依据。     

Towards an integrated global framework to assess the impacts of land use and management change on soil carbon: current capability and future vision

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 1 methodologies commonly underpin project‐scale carbon accounting for changes in land use and management and are used in frameworks for Life Cycle Assessment and carbon footprinting of food and energy crops. These methodologies were intended for use at large spatial scales. This can introduce error in predictions at finer spatial scales. There is an urgent need for development and implementation of higher tier methodologies that can be applied at fine spatial scales (e.g. farm/project/plantation) for food and bioenergy crop greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting to facilitate decision making in the land‐based sectors. Higher tier methods have been defined by IPCC and must be well evaluated and operate across a range of domains (e.g. climate region, soil type, crop type, topography), and must account for land use transitions and management changes being implemented. Furthermore, the data required to calibrate and drive the models used at higher tiers need to be available and applicable at fine spatial resolution, covering the meteorological, soil, cropping system and management domains, with quantified uncertainties. Testing the reliability of the models will require data either from sites with repeated measurements or from chronosequences. We review current global capability for estimating changes in soil carbon at fine spatial scales and present a vision for a framework capable of quantifying land use change and management impacts on soil carbon, which could be used for addressing issues such as bioenergy and biofuel sustainability, food security, forest protection, and direct/indirect impacts of land use change. The aim of this framework is to provide a globally accepted standard of carbon measurement and modelling appropriate for GHG accounting that could be applied at project to national scales (allowing outputs to be scaled up to a country level), to address the impacts of land use and land management change on soil carbon.     

Key Elements in a Framework for Land Use Impact Assessment Within LCA (11 pp)

Background, Aim and Scope Land use by agriculture, forestry, mining, house-building or industry leads to substantial impacts, particularly on biodiversity and on soil quality as a supplier of life support functions. Unfortunately there is no widely accepted assessment method so far for land use impacts. This paper presents an attempt, within the UNEP-SETAC Life Cycle Initiative, to provide a framework for the Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) of land use. Materials and Methods: This framework builds from previous documents, particularly the SETAC book on LCIA (Lindeijer et al. 2002), developing essential issues such as the reference for occupation impacts; the impact pathways to be included in the analysis; the units of measure in the impact mechanism (land use interventions to impacts); the ways to deal with impacts in the future; and bio-geographical differentiation. Results: The paper describes the selected impact pathways, linking the land use elementary flows (occupation; transformation) and parameters (intensity) registered in the inventory (LCI) to the midpoint impact indicators and to the relevant damage categories (natural environment and natural resources). An impact occurs when the land properties are modified (transformation) and also when the current man-made properties are maintained (occupation). Discussion: The size of impact is the difference between the effect on land quality from the studied case of land use and a suitable reference land use on the same area (dynamic reference situation). The impact depends not only on the type of land use (including coverage and intensity) but is also heavily influenced by the bio-geographical conditions of the area. The time lag between the land use intervention and the impact may be large; thus land use impacts should be calculated over a reasonable time period after the actual land use finishes, at least until a new steady state in land quality is reached. Conclusions: Guidance is provided on the definition of the dynamic reference situation and on methods and time frame to assess the impacts occurring after the actual land use. Including the occupation impacts acknowledges that humans are not the sole users of land. Recommendations and Perspectives: The main damages affected by land use that should be considered by any method to assess land use impacts in LCIA are: biodiversity (existence value); biotic production potential (including soil fertility and use value of biodiversity); ecological soil quality (including life support functions of soil other than biotic production potential). Bio-geographical differentiation is required for land use impacts, because the same intervention may have different consequences depending on the sensitivity and inherent land quality of the environment where it occurs. For the moment, an indication of how such task could be done and likely bio-geographical parameters to be considered are suggested. The recommendation of indicators for the suggested impact categories is a matter of future research.     

鄂尔多斯市土地利用生态安全格局构建

合理构建区域土地利用生态安全格局来实施管理对策和改善区域生态安全水平,已经成为区域生态环境保护的新需求。以位于中国北方农牧交错区的鄂尔多斯市为研究区,基于自然地理数据、社会经济统计数据、土地利用/覆被数据等,借助多目标优化模型和GIS空间分析技术,构建了鄂尔多斯市土地利用生态安全格局,结果表明:(1)不适宜性耕地所占比重较大,林地和草地分布比较合理,适宜的未利用地面积所占比重较大,后备土地资源丰富;(2)多目标优化结果显示,耕地、林地、水域和建设用地面积呈现增加的趋势;草地面积基本保持不变;未利用地面积大幅度下降;(3)土地利用生态安全格局显示,耕地面积增加,主要分布在水分条件较好的河流、湖泊和水库等的周边地区以及城镇和乡村居民点周围;林地面积大幅度增加,主要分布在达拉特旗北部和准格尔旗东部;草地略有增加,广泛分布于库布齐沙漠和毛乌素沙地以外的地区;建设用地增加面积主要来自于重点发展城镇的扩展和规划的重点矿产资源开采区;未利用地大幅度减少,主要集中在杭锦旗境内的库布齐沙漠以及乌审旗和鄂托克旗境内的毛乌素沙地。研究结果对鄂尔多斯市土地资源管理和生态安全建设具有重要指导意义。     

北京市土地利用生态分类方法

本文从国内外土地利用分类体系的现状分析入手,分析了当前土地利用分类体系与生态保护存在的矛盾,提出进行土地利用生态分类。首先,将北京市的土地利用现状类型分析归并为9个一级类15个二级类,确定各土地利用类型基准生态服务价值,然后提出各土地利用类型生态系统服务价值的区位修正方法,在对各种土地利用类型生态系统服务价值进行区位修正的基础上,划分出6个一级生态用地类型。其次,对北京市进行生态适宜性评价,生成生态适宜性分布图,将已生成的土地利用生态一级分类图与生态适宜性分布图进行叠加,对一级生态用地类型进行了二级划分,得到6个大类、18个亚类的北京市土地利用生态用地类型。最后,以北京市2007年的土地利用现状图为例,对北京市的土地利用生态分类方法进行应用,得到了2007年北京市土地利用生态分类图并分析了各土地利用生态用地类型的分布状况。     

Future fire emissions associated with projected land use change in Sumatra

Indonesia has experienced rapid land use change over the last few decades as forests and peatswamps have been cleared for more intensively managed land uses, including oil palm and timber plantations. Fires are the predominant method of clearing and managing land for more intensive uses, and the related emissions affect public health by contributing to regional particulate matter and ozone concentrations and adding to global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Here, we examine emissions from fires associated with land use clearing and land management on the Indonesian island of Sumatra and the sensitivity of this fire activity to interannual meteorological variability. We find ~80% of 2005–2009 Sumatra emissions are associated with degradation or land use maintenance instead of immediate land use conversion, especially in dry years. We estimate Sumatra fire emissions from land use change and maintenance for the next two decades with five scenarios of land use change, the Global Fire Emissions Database Version 3, detailed 1‐km² land use change maps, and MODIS fire radiative power observations. Despite comprising only 16% of the original study area, we predict that 37–48% of future Sumatra emissions from land use change will occur in fuel‐rich peatswamps unless this land cover type is protected effectively. This result means that the impact of fires on future air quality and climate in Equatorial Asia will be decided in part by the conservation status given to the remaining peatswamps on Sumatra. Results from this article will be implemented in an atmospheric transport model to quantify the public health impacts from the transport of fire emissions associated with future land use scenarios in Sumatra.     

贵州省山地-坝地系统土地利用与景观格局时空演变

探讨贵州省山地-坝地系统的景观变迁与优化调控具有重要的意义。以贵州省典型的蒲场、洋川山地-坝地系统为例,从一个地貌单元对以万亩大坝为中心的山地-坝地土地系统1960年代到2010年的土地利用变化与格局演变进行系统的研究。把研究区划分成中央坝地、坝中丘陵和坝周山地3个部分,结合遥感技术与实地调查,获得研究区4个时期土地利用的空间分布,基于移动窗口法计算了景观格局指标。坝中丘陵和坝周山地景观多样性高于坝地,土地利用综合程度以坝地最高;平坝耕地从1963年所占比例90.81%下降到2010年的79.94%,坝中丘陵和坝周山地林地减少,灌木林增加,坡耕地仍保持在较高水平;耕地有向经济效益更高的土地利用方式转变的趋势。坝子在土地利用变化和景观格局演变过程中,原有的土地利用格局逐渐被改变,形成新的斑块-廊道-基质格局。研究区中部坝地、坝中丘陵和坝周山地的土地利用变化表明,坝地的土地利用变化和土地集约利用可对坝中丘陵及坝周山地产生影响,坝子与坝中丘陵和坝周山地土地利用存在耦合变化。进一步应加强研究区土地利用优化调控,使坝地、坝周山地和坝中丘陵的土地利用协同演化。研究结果对贵州省山地-坝地系统土地优化利用有参考价值。     

顾及土地利用强度和生态-经济权衡的四川省陆地生态系统碳储量预测与热点分析

中国致力于在2060年前实现碳中和,为缓解气候变化的全球性目标贡献力量。人类活动引起的土地变化是造成碳排放的主要原因之一。四川省森林资源丰富,具有较高的经济增长潜力和重要的生态地位,是中国实现碳中和的关键区域之一。为从土地管理的角度为中国的碳中和提供政策支持,本文在顾及土地利用强度和生态-经济权衡的情景下预测了四川省2030年的土地变化,提出了顾及土地利用强度的陆地生态系统未来碳储量估算方法,并估算了四川省2030年的碳储量。结果表明,四川省若能在未来平衡经济效益和生态效益,可在2030年同时实现经济生产总值(相对于2020)增加约34%和碳储量增加约3%。为实现上述目标,四川省未来具体需加强西北部高原温带湿润/半湿润地区和高原亚寒带半湿润地区的林地和湿地的保护与扩张,并促进以成都为核心的四川省东南部中亚热带湿润地区城市的均衡发展。     

土地利用/覆盖变化对陆地生态系统碳循环的影响

土地利用/覆盖变化是学术界最为关注的环境变化问题之一,它能够影响陆地生态系统的生物多样性、水、碳和养分循环、能量平衡,引起温室气体释放增加等其它环境问题。不同类型的土地利用/覆盖变化对生态系统碳循环的作用不同,由高生物量的森林转化为低生物量的草地、农田或城市后,大量的CO₂将释放到大气中。全球土地利用/覆盖变化具有很强的空间变异性,对生态系统碳循环的影响同样具有明显的空间差异:热带地区的土地利用/覆盖变化造成大量的碳释放,而中高纬度地区土地利用/覆盖变化则表现为碳汇。目前,土地利用/覆盖变化引起的生态系统碳循环变化主要是通过模型模拟来估算的。尽管土地利用/覆盖变化及其相关过程与生态系统碳循环的关系已经比较清楚,但是,由于土地利用/覆盖变化过程复杂且影响广泛,对于如何量化两者之间的关系还存在很多不确定性。目前的量化过程主要是利用经验数据来实现的,机理性不强,使得对土地利用/覆盖变化造成的陆地生态系统CO₂释放量的估测差异很大。除了进一步加强长期定位研究以获得土地利用/覆盖变化与生态系统碳循环过程的定量关系外,土地利用/覆盖变化模型与植被动态模型、生态系统过程模型的耦合也是今后模型发展的主要方向之一。采用合理的管理措施能够大量增加土地利用/覆盖变化过程中的碳储存量,降低碳释放量,因此在模型中耦合管理措施来研究土地利用/覆盖变化过程对生态系统碳循环的影响是未来几年的工作重点。     

遗传算法支持下土地利用空间分形特征尺度域的识别

针对土地利用空间分形特征只存在于有限尺度域的现象,采用无标度区内离散点拟合的离差平方和平均值最小作为目标函数,提出了一种基于遗传算法的土地利用空间分形特征尺度域的识别方法,用于准确计算分形维数的有效区间范围。以武汉市武昌区水域空间分形特征为例,利用Quickbird多光谱遥感影像提取土地利用空间信息,重点讨论了基于遗传算法识别土地利用空间分形特征尺度域范围的总体思路、适应度函数和遗传算子等环节;然后分别从测定系数、标准差和无标度区间3个角度,将其同人工判断法、相关系数法以及强化系数法进行对比讨论;并结合研究区域实际的水域空间分布格局,分析不同方法计算所得半径维数的合理性。结果表明,土地利用分形特征尺度域的范围对分形维数计算结果有较大影响;相对于传统计算方法来说,遗传算法在尺度无标度区间识别上具有更高的精度,可以为土地利用空间格局分形特征的研究提供客观指导意见。     

黄河流域资源型城市土地利用转型及其对生态系统服务价值的影响

分析快速城镇化背景下黄河流域资源型城市土地利用转型趋势,探讨该区域土地利用转型对生态系统服务价值的影响,为资源型城市实现绿色转型发展提供科学依据。运用ArcGIS空间分析方法探索研究区土地利用结构与时空转型格局,构建黄河流域资源型城市生态系统服务价值评估方法,分析不同类型和不同区域资源型城市生态系统服务价值变化情况,并进一步探究不同土地利用转型类型对生态系统服务价值的影响程度。研究结果表明：（1）20年来,伴随着快速的城镇化过程,黄河流域资源型城市发生了明显的土地利用转型,草地、耕地和林地相互转换规模较大,建设用地不断扩张,耕地则持续减少;（2）2020年,研究区生态系统服务价值总量为1.222万亿元,呈增长趋势,且形成"中部高-东西低"的空间格局;（3）各资源型城市生态系统服务价值量表现出北高南低、中高东低的空间格局,成熟型和再生型资源型城市以及中游地区资源型城市的单位面积生态系统服务价值较大;（4）草地、耕地和林地之间的相互转换是导致生态系统服务价值变化的主要转型类型。为提升黄河流域资源型城市生态系统服务价值,有效发挥生态系统功能,构建区域生态安全体系,首先,应严格落实国土空间用途管制制度,保持林地、草地和耕地的稳定性;其次,从严控制建设用地扩张趋势,减缓因建设占用耕地或生态用地导致生态系统服务价值损失;再次,稳步提高对未利用地的生态化利用效率;最后,积极探索提升资源型城市生态系统服务价值的差异化管理方案。     

Exploring the Use of Ecological Footprint in Life Cycle Impact Assessment

Ecological footprint (EF) is a metric that estimates human consumption of biological resources and products, along with generation of waste greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in terms of appropriated productive land. There is an opportunity to better characterize land occupation and effects on the carbon cycle in life cycle assessment (LCA) models using EF concepts. Both LCA and EF may benefit from the merging of approaches commonly used separately by practitioners of these two methods. However, few studies have compared or integrated EF with LCA. The focus of this research was to explore methods for improving the characterization of land occupation within LCA by considering the EF method, either as a complementary tool or impact assessment method. Biofuels provide an interesting subject for application of EF in the LCA context because two of the most important issues surrounding biofuels are land occupation (changes, availability, and so on) and GHG balances, two of the impacts that EF is able to capture. We apply EF to existing fuel LCA land occupation and emissions data and project EF for future scenarios for U.S. transportation fuels. We find that LCA studies can benefit from lessons learned in EF about appropriately modeling productive land occupation and facilitating clear communication of meaningful results, but find limitations to the EF in the LCA context that demand refinement and recommend that EF always be used along with other indicators and metrics in product‐level assessments.     

Implications of Fire Policy on Native Land Use in the Yukon Flats, Alaska

Through a process of participatory mapping, this research assessed the impacts of the 1984 change in Alaska fire policy from one of exclusion to one of management on Native land use in the Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge. Findings suggest that while the change in policy has had little measurable effect on community land use the continued suppression of fire on Native owned lands is having a direct impact on the current availability of wildlife resources to the point of necessitating territorial expansion among Native resource users. However, given the complexity of human nature, the impacts associated with the 1984 policy change should not be reduced to a simplistic cause-and-effect relationship. Rather this analysis demonstrates the interaction as well as the contradiction that occur between policy, culture, and ecology as these factors together have come to influence Native land use.     

基于景观生态安全格局的低丘缓坡土地资源开发利用——以四川省泸县为例

低丘缓坡土地资源开发是缓解人地矛盾、优化土地配置的有效途径。以四川省泸县为例,首先界定了低丘缓坡土地资源的范围,提取低丘缓坡土地资源面积共计331.71km~2。然后基于Arc GIS空间分析模块,以生态用地保护为目的,选取土地覆盖类型与地形坡度为阻力因子,应用最小累计阻力模型建立泸县景观生态安全格局。通过与泸县低丘缓坡土地资源现状的叠加分析,对位于不同景观安全水平的低丘缓坡土地资源进行分类,将低丘缓坡土地资源分为优先开发型、适度开发型、限制开发型、禁止开发型4种类型,其面积分别为108.72、97.03、68.36、57.60km~2,并分析各类型特征,提出了相应的低丘缓坡土地资源开发利用规划,旨在为研究区生态安全策略以及低丘缓坡土地资源的合理开发与利用等提供科学参考。     

融入生态安全的兰西城市群土地利用功能布局优化

区域生态安全对协调土地利用和生态环境的关系、促进资源的合理配置以及实现区域协调发展具有重要的意义。以兰西城市群作为典型地区,将形态空间格局分析(MPSA)应用到土地利用功能优化配置研究中,通过构建MSPA-GMOP-PLUS耦合模型,将生态安全纳入城市群土地利用功能和空间结构优化中,为区域布局优化提供了新思路。结果表明：(1)生态源地对区域生态安全具有重要意义,2020年兰西城市群共有20个生态源地,生态核心总面积为43355.5 km²。此外,在土地利用功能分区中,生态保护区面积占比仍为最大(30.7%),生态边缘区面积也占19.2%,为生态保护提供了缓冲地带。(2)基于MSPA的仿真模拟可以限制城市群不平衡的发展趋势,优于传统土地利用规划模式。新模式下的生产、生活、生态用地占比分别由传统模式的30.17%、11.25%、55.58%优化至31.92%、10.70%和57.38%。优化结果不仅保证了优质生产空间的稳定性,而且有效确保了生态空间的可持续性。此外,不同开发情景的下土地利用布局结果,可以作为提高土地资源利用率和制定土地利用空间规划的参考。     

重庆市土地利用冲突多尺度时空演化与多情景演化模拟

土地利用冲突是区域土地开发利用过程中存在的客观问题,对区域经济社会发展和生态安全具有重要影响。识别、测度区域土地利用冲突,明晰其时空演化格局,有助于优化区域土地利用结构,促进土地资源的可持续利用。以重庆市为例,基于景观格局构建了土地利用冲突测度模型,从县域、镇域以及格网3个尺度全面和系统地分析了1995-2020年重庆市土地利用冲突的时空演化特征,并耦合多目标规划(Multi-Objective Programming,MOP)-斑块生成土地利用变化模拟模型(Ptach-generating Land Use Simulation,PLUS)模拟了重庆市2030年不同发展情景下土地利用冲突格局。结果表明:(1)1995-2020年重庆市县域、镇域与格网不同尺度下的土地利用冲突格局具有较大相似性,不同尺度的土地利用重度冲突区主要分布在重庆中心城区及周边地区,区县建成区。土地利用一般冲突区主要分布于渝东南和渝东北地区。研究期内土地利用冲突有所加剧,其中土地利用重度冲突区占比增加了3.09%。(2) 1995-2005年重庆市土地利用冲突区主体位于乡村地域,但冲突程度较低,随着工业化、城市化进程及人口的集聚,2005年后土地利用冲突热点区域的城市地域集聚效应显著,城市及周边地区土地利用冲突区面积和土地利用冲突度均显著提升。(3) 区域土地利用冲突空间格局不仅受到了人为经济社会活动的驱动影响,在空间格局上受自然生态环境基底影响显著,其中地形地貌的限制加剧了土地利用重度冲突区。(4)不同发展情景模拟中经济优先发展情景下土地利用冲突最为严重,生态优先发展情景下土地利用冲突最小,可持续发展情景兼顾了经济和生态发展的用地需求,土地利用冲突强度处于中间范围,但区域发展总福利最大,是未来区域发展路径最优选择。     

Adaptation of global land use and management intensity to changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide

Land use contributes to environmental change, but is also influenced by such changes. Climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels’ changes alter agricultural crop productivity, plant water requirements and irrigation water availability. The global food system needs to respond and adapt to these changes, for example, by altering agricultural practices, including the crop types or intensity of management, or shifting cultivated areas within and between countries. As impacts and associated adaptation responses are spatially specific, understanding the land use adaptation to environmental changes requires crop productivity representations that capture spatial variations. The impact of variation in management practices, including fertiliser and irrigation rates, also needs to be considered. To date, models of global land use have selected agricultural expansion or intensification levels using relatively aggregate spatial representations, typically at a regional level, that are not able to characterise the details of these spatially differentiated responses. Here, we show results from a novel global modelling approach using more detailed biophysically derived yield responses to inputs with greater spatial specificity than previously possible. The approach couples a dynamic global vegetative model (LPJ‐GUESS) with a new land use and food system model (PLUMv2), with results benchmarked against historical land use change from 1970. Land use outcomes to 2100 were explored, suggesting that increased intensity of climate forcing reduces the inputs required for food production, due to the fertilisation and enhanced water use efficiency effects of elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, but requiring substantial shifts in the global and local patterns of production. The results suggest that adaptation in the global agriculture and food system has substantial capacity to diminish the negative impacts and gain greater benefits from positive outcomes of climate change. Consequently, agricultural expansion and intensification may be lower than found in previous studies where spatial details and processes consideration were more constrained.