Predicting impacts of climate-induced range expansion: an experimental framework and a test involving key grazers on temperate rocky shores

Climate change has strong potential to modify the structure and functioning of ecosystems, but experimental field studies into its effects are rare. On rocky shores, grazing limpets strongly affect ecosystem structure and their distribution in NW Europe is changing in response to climate change. Three limpet species co-occur in SW Britain ( Patella vulgata, Patella ulyssiponensis and Patella depressa ) on open rock and in pools. Shores in Ireland are similar, but currently lack P. depressa . It is anticipated that P. depressa will expand its range into Ireland as the climate warms, but we currently lack an empirical basis to predict the consequences of this change. Recent studies show that increasing abundance of P. depressa on British shores has been accompanied by a decline of P. vulgata suggesting interspecific competition. In this study, a new experimental framework was used to examine the potential for P. depressa to affect P. vulgata on Irish shores. P. vulgata was experimentally transplanted into enclosures on open rock and in pools in both Ireland and Britain. In pools, treatments also included transplanted P. ulyssiponensis to mimic natural assemblages. Growth and mortality of P. vulgata were measured over 6 months with no differences between Ireland and Britain. In Britain, P. vulgata caged in pools with transplanted P. depressa and P. ulyssiponensis showed reduced growth, compared with when caged in pools with P. ulyssiponensis alone. There was no effect of P. depressa on the growth rate of P. vulgata on open rock. Results indicate that if the range of P. depressa extends into Ireland, it would reduce the growth of P. vulgata where it co-occurs with P. ulyssiponensis in pools. The framework used here provides a field-based approach that could be used to examine the impacts of climate-induced range expansions on the structure and functioning of other ecosystems.     

Field evidence of trait-mediated indirect interactions in a rocky intertidal food web

Studies on the implications of food web interactions to community structure have often focused on density-mediated interactions between predators and their prey. This approach emphasizes the importance of predator regulation of prey density via consumption (i.e. lethal effects), which, in turn, leads to cascading effects on the prey's resources. A more recent and contrasting view emphasizes the importance of non-lethal predator effects on prey traits (e.g. behaviour, morphology), or trait-mediated interactions. On rocky intertidal shores in New England, green crab ( Carcinus maenas ) predation is thought to be important to patterns of algal abundance and diversity by regulating the density of herbivorous snails ( Littorina littorea ). We found, however, that risk cues from green crabs can dramatically suppress snail grazing, with large effects on fucoid algal communities. Our results suggest that predator-induced changes in prey behaviour may be an important and under-appreciated component of food web interactions and community dynamics on rocky intertidal shores.     

Synergistic effects associated with climate change and the development of rocky shore molluscs

Global climate change and ozone layer thinning will simultaneously expose organisms to increasingly stressful conditions. Early life stages of marine organisms, particularly eggs and larvae, are considered most vulnerable to environmental extremes. Here, we exposed encapsulated embryos of three common rocky shore gastropods to simultaneous combinations of ecologically realistic levels of ultraviolet radiation (UVR), water temperature stress and salinity stress to identify potential interactions and associated impacts of climate change. We detected synergistic effects with increases in mortality and retardation in development associated with the most physiologically stressful conditions. The effects of UVR were particularly marked, with mortality increasing up to 12‐fold under stressful conditions. Importantly, the complex outcomes observed on applying multiple stressors could not have been predicted from examining environmental variables in isolation. Hence, we are probably dramatically underestimating the ecological impacts of climate change by failing to consider the complex interplay of combinations of environmental variables with organisms.     

Community stability: effects of limpet removal and reintroduction in a rocky intertidal community

Summary The stability of a high rocky intertidal community was assessed in a controlled field experiment in which the most common consumers, limpets, were temporarily removed. Compared to the unmanipulated plots, the exclusion plots developed greater algal abundance and altered species composition of both algae and barnacles. The community was not perturbed beyond its capacity to recover, since the community structure of the limpet-removal plots converged on the structure of the unmanipulated plots following limpet reintroduction. Different components of the community recovered at different rates, depending on whether or not the species had a size-related escape from the limpets. Algae had no size-related escape from limpets. The difference in algal abundance between manipulated and unmanipulated plots lasted less than six months after limpet reintroduction. Barnacles, however, had a size-related escape from limpets and therefore recovered more slowly. The difference in barnacle species composition between the perturbed and unperturbed plots lasted for 17 months after limpet reintroduction. The length of the limpet removal period (16 or 28 months) did not appear to affect the rate of community recovery.     

陆地生态系统水分利用效率对气候变化的响应研究进展

气候变化显著影响陆地生态系统生产力以及水分利用格局,而水分利用效率(Water Use Efficiency,WUE)是衡量生态系统碳水耦合关系的重要指标之一。研究陆地生态系统水分利用效率对气候变化的响应,有助于深入理解生态系统的变化规律,模拟和预测生态系统碳水过程的发展状况,从而为应对全球气候变化提供新的依据。为了更好地掌握生态系统水分利用效率研究现状以及其对温度、CO2等关键气候因子的响应情况,本文总结了陆地生态系统水分利用效率对气候变化响应的最新研究进展。首先介绍了相关的定义并归纳了两种不同计算方式的差异和特点;接着重点总结了陆地生态系统水分利用效率对大气温度、CO2、水分、干旱以及太阳辐射等影响因素的响应;最后文章总结了目前3个相关的研究态势,主要包括:(1)长时间序列水分利用效率与气候要素的关系研究;(2)土地利用/覆被变化对水分利用效率的影响及其对气候的反馈研究;(3)多尺度水分利用效率综合研究。本研究可为深入研究生态系统过程对气候变化的响应提供参考。     

Temporal variation of rocky intertidal resident fish assemblages - patterns and possible mechanisms with a note on sampling protocols

In this paper we review the temporal patterns of variation of rocky intertidal resident fish assemblages and discuss possible mechanisms that may explain these patterns. These assemblages tend to be highly resilient and stable on an inter-annual basis, but tend to undergo marked seasonal fluctuations, as different species recruit and reach different phases of their life cycles. Larval supply is usually not a limiting factor suggesting that post-recruitment deterministic mechanisms exert a strong influence on assemblage organization. At methodological level, it is argued that traditional destructive sampling techniques should be avoided whenever possible. It is proposed that a deeper understanding of these assemblages requires more detailed information on intraspecific interactions between members of each constituent species, and information on the interactions between limited numbers of species for which mutually influences are particularly strong. It is argued that size, topography and biotic cover of a pool may provide a limited number of favourable sites for fishes of a given species and class size so that intraspecific competition, and possibly predation of the individuals less able to get access to best sites, may explain to a considerable extent the inter-annual stability and resilience of these assemblages.     

Seasonal changes in an intertidal annual algal assemblage in northern Japan: The role of pre-emption and grazing on algal replacement

The pattern and process of seasonal changes in an intertidal annual algal assemblage were examined at Hiura, northern Japan. Short-term field experiments (<2months duration) were set up to quantify the effects of both grazing and pre-emption on species replacement in the assemblage in three different seasons. An 8-month field experiment was set up to quantify long-term effects, including the indirect effects of both grazing and competitive dominance on the community structure. Results suggested that seasonal change in the algal assemblage resulted from the interaction of abiotic environmental change, competition and grazing. The relative contribution of these factors varied within a short period, presumably as a result of seasonal changes in physical environmental stress, free space availability and grazing pressure. From February to March, when grazer density was low and there was much free space available for algae, the dominant species shifted from foliose green alga Monostroma angicava to filamentous red alga Bangia atropurpurea, because B.atropurpurea grew faster than M.angicava. This species replacement was not influenced strongly by biological interaction but by temporal changes in abiotic environmental conditions. From April to mid May, when there was less free space available for algae in the natural community, the dominant B.atropurpurea decreased with increasing foliose red alga Porphyra yezoensis, because only P.yezoensis was able to invade an area pre-empted by algae. Grazing did not affect this species replacement. After mid May, the two dominant species, P.yezoensis and B.atropurpurea, decreased. Their decline was mainly caused by desiccation stress and was partially affected by grazing.     

Response of poikilotherms to thermal aspects of climate change

Climate change will lead to changes in both the mean and variability of a number of different climatic variables. Temperature is one of these. Poikilotherms are organisms whose development rate at each life stage is dictated by temperature, and so we anticipate that climate change will have strong effects on the dynamics of these organisms. In this paper, we use a mathematical model for development that explicitly includes temperature dependence to investigate the effect of four different types of thermal perturbations: (1) increased mean annual temperature, increased swings in (2) annual and (3) daily temperatures, and (4) extreme temperature events. We investigate these effects in the context of three different poikilotherms, two biocontrol agents (Neoseiulus californicus and Mecinus janthiniformis) and a native forest pest (the mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae). We find that the three organisms respond very differently to the thermal perturbations, indicating that the impact of climate change on poikilotherms is not straightforward and potentially highly complex.     

喀斯特高原山地石漠化区叶蝉群落结构及其多样性动态变化

为了探讨喀斯特石漠化治理区叶蝉群落对生态功能变动的动态响应,在中国贵州毕节撒拉溪朝营小流域按不同等级石漠化程度设置样地,并设置响应对照组,在2013-2014年5-10月每月对样地进行野外调查,系统采集叶蝉标本和在室内开展生物多样性研究,以期分析高原山地不同等级石漠化程度下叶蝉群落的时空格局,特别是对石漠化治理效果的生态学响应。结果表明,共采得叶蝉3049头,隶属11亚科53属,其中优势类群为小叶蝉亚科、角顶叶蝉亚科、大叶蝉亚科,分别占总数的44.70%、21.78%、14.66%。与对照组相比,治理区内样地叶蝉的属数、个体数都有增加,并表现出明显的季节变动,在7月、8月物种丰富度指数最高;随着石漠化治理的深入,叶蝉种数、个体数呈增加趋势。总体上,石漠化等级与叶蝉群落结构特征指数呈现显著的负相关,石漠化等级越低,叶蝉的Shannon-Wiener多样性指数和Margale丰富度指数越大。各等级石漠化样地的Pieluo均匀度指数与优势度指数呈现反向耦合。     

Within- and between-patch variability of predation intensity on the mussel Mytilus trossulus Gould on a rocky intertidal shore in Oregon, USA

Variability of predation intensity is an important cause of spatial differences of community structure and organization in the intertidal rocky shore. Field experiments were conducted to evaluate the within- and between-patch variability of the effects of different types of predators (small invertebrates and birds) on Mytilus trossulus Gould, which occupies an intermediate position in the competitive hierarchy among sessile organisms in disturbance patches within a California mussel (Mytilus californianus Conrad) bed community on the central Oregon Coast. Predation by birds did not significantly affect the mortality of M. trossulus. On the contrary, predation by small invertebrate whelks (Nucella spp.) had a significant effect on M. trossulus mortality. Predation by whelks also caused between- and within-patch variability of mortality of M. trossulus. Within patches, M. trossulus mortality at patch margins was significantly higher than at patch centers only when invertebrate predators were present. Wave exposure did not cause between-patch variability of predation intensity. Between-and within-patch variability of predation intensity may be caused by the variability of supply of whelks from the surrounding mussel mat. The movement of predators between patches and surrounding matrices may play an important role in the patch dynamics of these communities.     

Net primary and ecosystem production and carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems and their responses to climate change

Evaluating the role of terrestrial ecosystems in the global carbon cycle requires a detailed understanding of carbon exchange between vegetation, soil, and the atmosphere. Global climatic change may modify the net carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems, causing feedbacks on atmospheric CO₂ and climate. We describe a model for investigating terrestrial carbon exchange and its response to climatic variation based on the processes of plant photosynthesis, carbon allocation, litter production, and soil organic carbon decomposition. The model is used to produce geographical patterns of net primary production (NPP), carbon stocks in vegetation and soils, and the seasonal variations in net ecosystem production (NEP) under both contemporary and future climates. For contemporary climate, the estimated global NPP is 57.0 Gt C y^–1, carbon stocks in vegetation and soils are 640 Gt C and 1358 Gt C, respectively, and NEP varies from –0.5 Gt C in October to 1.6 Gt C in July. For a doubled atmospheric CO₂ concentration and the corresponding climate, we predict that global NPP will rise to 69.6 Gt C y^–1, carbon stocks in vegetation and soils will increase by, respectively, 133 Gt C and 160 Gt C, and the seasonal amplitude of NEP will increase by 76%. A doubling of atmospheric CO₂ without climate change may enhance NPP by 25% and result in a substantial increase in carbon stocks in vegetation and soils. Climate change without CO₂ elevation will reduce the global NPP and soil carbon stocks, but leads to an increase in vegetation carbon because of a forest extension and NPP enhancement in the north. By combining the effects of CO₂ doubling, climate change, and the consequent redistribution of vegetation, we predict a strong enhancement in NPP and carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems. This study simulates the possible variation in the carbon exchange at equilibrium state. We anticipate to investigate the dynamic responses in the carbon exchange to atmospheric CO₂ elevation and climate change in the past and future.     

Impact of 21st century climate change on the Baltic Sea fish community and fisheries

The Baltic Sea is a large brackish semienclosed sea whose species-poor fish community supports important commercial and recreational fisheries. Both the fish species and the fisheries are strongly affected by climate variations. These climatic effects and the underlying mechanisms are briefly reviewed. We then use recent regional – scale climate – ocean modelling results to consider how climate change during this century will affect the fish community of the Baltic and fisheries management. Expected climate changes in northern Europe will likely affect both the temperature and salinity of the Baltic, causing it to become warmer and fresher. As an estuarine ecosystem with large horizontal and vertical salinity gradients, biodiversity will be particularly sensitive to changes in salinity which can be expected as a consequence of altered precipitation patterns. Marine-tolerant species will be disadvantaged and their distributions will partially contract from the Baltic Sea; habitats of freshwater species will likely expand. Although some new species can be expected to immigrate because of an expected increase in sea temperature, only a few of these species will be able to successfully colonize the Baltic because of its low salinity. Fishing fleets which presently target marine species (e.g. cod, herring, sprat, plaice, sole) in the Baltic will likely have to relocate to more marine areas or switch to other species which tolerate decreasing salinities. Fishery management thresholds that trigger reductions in fishing quotas or fishery closures to conserve local populations (e.g. cod, salmon) will have to be reassessed as the ecological basis on which existing thresholds have been established changes, and new thresholds will have to be developed for immigrant species. The Baltic situation illustrates some of the uncertainties and complexities associated with forecasting how fish populations, communities and industries dependent on an estuarine ecosystem might respond to future climate change.     

不同等级石漠化地区植物群落物种多样性及优势种叶片性状对环境因子的响应

为探讨不同等级石漠化对植物群落物种多样性和优势种叶片性状的变化规律及其对环境因子的响应,该研究以无、轻度、中度和重度石漠化地区植物群落为对象,通过Shannon-Wiener多样性、Margalef丰富度、Pielou均匀度和Simpson多样性等指数以及优势种LA、LT、LDMC和δ13C等叶片性状分析了石漠化梯度上的物种多样性和叶片性状变化规律。结果表明:36个样方共有维管植物188种,隶属69科141属。随着石漠化程度加剧,各物种多样性指数总体呈现下降趋势;不同等级石漠化物种多样性差异:乔木层>灌木层>草本层。优势种LA随着石漠化程度的加剧呈现降低趋势,而LT、LDMC和δ13C呈现升高趋势,不同等级石漠化优势种叶片性状具有显著差异(P<0.05)。结合CCA分析表明,土层厚度和土壤含水量是影响石漠化地区植物空间分布最主要的影响因素;通过RDA分析显示,物种多样性指数与环境因子之间具有显著相关关系,其中速效钾、土壤含水量、碱解氮、土层厚度和有机质是影响物种多样性和优势种叶片性状的主导因素。这对西南喀斯特植被生态保护和石漠化生态系统植被恢复具有一定的理论意义和指导价值。     

Phenology, ontogeny and the effects of climate change on the timing of species interactions

Climate change is altering the phenology of many species and the timing of their interactions with other species, but the impacts of these phenological shifts on species interactions remain unclear. Classical approaches to the study of phenology have typically documented changes in the timing of single life-history events, while phenological shifts affect many interactions over entire life histories. In this study, we suggest an approach that integrates the phenology and ontogeny of species interactions with a fitness landscape to provide a common mechanistic framework for investigating phenological shifts. We suggest that this ontogeny–phenology landscape provides a flexible method to document changes in the relative phenologies of interacting species, examine the causes of these phenological shifts, and estimate their consequences for interacting species.
Ecology Letters (2010) 13: 1–10     

迁地保育植物花期物候对迁入地气候变化的响应

以中国科学院武汉植物园内栽培的长果秤锤树(Sinojackia dolichocarpa C. J. Qi)、山白树(Sinowilsonia henryi Hemsl.)、夏腊梅(Sinocalycanthus chinensis Cheng et S. Y. Chang)、紫茎(Stewartia sinensis Rehd. et Wils.)和绒毛皂荚(Gleditsia vestita Chun et How ex B. G. Li) 5种迁地保育植物为对象,通过2008-2016年观察记录的初花期物候及整个花期长度的数据,研究花期的年际变化规律及其与迁入地武汉气候因子的相关性。结果显示:(1)从初花期来看,长果秤锤树的初花期每年提前1.25 d,紫茎的初花期每年推迟1.35 d,绒毛皂荚的初花期每年推迟1.22 d。(2)从花期长度来看,山白树的花期每年增加1.72 d,夏蜡梅的花期每年减少1.62 d,紫茎的花期每年增加0.32 d。(3)从花期与气候因子的相关性来看,年降水量、年平均相对湿度、 10℃有效积温、花前 10℃的有效积温是影响这5种植物初花期、花期长度的主要气候因子;不同物种间影响花期的主要气候因子有所差异。     

典型喀斯特地区石漠化景观格局对土地利用变化的响应

土地利用是人类活动最基本的表现形式,探讨石漠化与土地利用变化之间的响应关系,对于石漠化治理和区域的可持续发展是非常重要的。基于贵州道真县2005年、2015年LANDSAT和石漠化数据,再利用ENVI 5.3进行监督分类,将道真县土地利用分为8种类型。通过景观格局空间分析技术和3S技术,对道真县土地利用时空演变和石漠化景观格局进行综合分析,结果表明:(1) 2005—2015年间,道真县建设用地和灌木林地面积增加,大部分灌木林地由水田和旱地转化而来,其面积增加了7.51%,建设用地增加了1.30%。(2)近10年间,研究区石漠化等级间的转移表现为轻、中、重度转化为潜在石漠化,其斑块转移面积分别为11.26、38.79、2.71 km2,表明研究区石漠化景观得到了恢复,低等级石漠化斑块面积增加,降低了原有高等级石漠化斑块的优势度。(3) 2005—2015年间道真县土地利用和石漠化景观格局,多样性指数分别下降了0.6434和2.4309,均匀度指数各减少了0.0552和0.5436,分维度指数各提高了0.0061和0.0801,蔓延度指数各增加0.1751、25.5396和聚合度指数分别增加1.8688和2.9112,景观形状指数分别减少0.9812和4.536,石漠化景观格局的变化对应土地利用景观格局指数的变化,随着人们土地利用方式的改变,石漠化也发生相应的改变。通过该研究的进行,有助于提高人们对石漠化和土地利用景观格局的认识,基于景观生态学背景对石漠化治理成效进行评估,为之后的石漠化治理工作的进行及研究提供了参考。     

Ecological hindcasting of biogeographic responses to climate change in the European intertidal zone

Intertidal organisms are often assumed to live close to their thermal limits, and have emerged as potential early indicators of the effects of climate change. We compared our survey of the 2004–2006 geographic distribution of the barnacle Semibalanus balanoides to its distribution in 1872, 1955, 1963, 1971, and 1985, from surveys by Fischer, Crisp, Fischer-Piette, Barnes, Powell, and Southward. The southern geographic limit has retreated 300 km in France since 1872, at a rate of 15 to 50 km per decade. We compared our 2006 survey of the geographic distribution of the polychaete Diopatra neapolitana to its distribution in 1893–1923, from surveys by Saint-Joseph and Fauvel, and its distribution in 1969–1976 from surveys by Glémarec. The northern geographic limit of this species has advanced 300 km in France since 1893 at similar rates to Semibalanus. We used NOAA weather reanalysis data and our mechanistic simulation model of intertidal animal body temperatures to hindcast the thermal environmental change near historical geographic limits in Europe for the past 55 years. Results indicate that changes in the southern limit of S. balanoides are due to intolerance of winter body temperatures above 10°C, leading to reproductive failure. Results for Diopatra are ambiguous: based on the northern extension of its range, either cold winters or cool summers limit its range, while gaps in its distribution are consistent with limitation by cooler summer conditions. The parallel shifts of D. neapolitana on sedimentary shores and Semibalanus on rocky shores suggest that similar climatic factors control the geographic limits of both species. The intertidal zone is a model system for examining the effects of climate change on biogeographic change both because of the rapidity of its response, and because the rich historical record allows direct tests of hypotheses. Guest editors: J. Davenport, G. Burnell, T. Cross, M. Emmerson, R. McAllen, R. Ramsay & E. Rogan Challenges to Marine Ecosystems     

Response of the terrestrial biosphere to global climate change and human perturbation

Despite 20 years of intensive effort to understand the global carbon cycle, the budget for carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is unbalanced. To explain why atmospheric CO₂ is not increasing as rapidly as it should be, various workers have suggested that land vegetation acts as a sink for carbon dioxide. Here, I examine various possibilities and find that the evidence for a sink of sufficient magnitude on land is poor. Moreover, it is unlikely that the land vegetation will act as a sink in the postulated warmer global climates of the future. In response to rapid human population growth, destruction of natural ecosystems in the tropics remains a large net source of CO₂ for the atmosphere, which is only partially compensated by the potential for carbon storage in temperate and boreal regions. Direct and inadvertent human effects on land vegetation might increase the magnitude of regional CO₂ storage on land, but they are unlikely to play a significant role in moderating the potential rate of greenhouse warming in the future.     

Reproductive potential of a marine ecosystem engineer at the edge of a newly expanded range

Global climate change is leading to redistribution of marine species and altering ecosystem dynamics. Given recent poleward range extension of the barrens‐forming sea urchin Centrostephanus rodgersii (Diadematidae) from mainland Australia to Tasmania, there is a need to understand the population dynamics of this ecologically important species in the Tasmanian environment. This paper informs possible population dynamics of C. rodgersii in Tasmania by examining its reproductive ecology in this new environment. Reproductive periodicity (gonad index and propensity to spawn) was assessed bimonthly over 18 months at four sites in eastern Tasmania spanning ～2° in latitude. At all sites, C. rodgersii displayed a strong seasonal cycle in gonad production with major spawning occurring in winter (～August) at minimum annual water temperature. Gametes from Tasmanian C. rodgersii were viable as determined by fertilization and early development trials. However, development to the two‐arm stage at ～3 weeks was strongly dependent on water temperature across the 8–20 °C temperature range, with poor development occurring below 12 °C. The range of temperatures tolerated by Tasmanian C. rodgersii larvae was similar to that of larvae from its native New South Wales range, indicating that this species has not undergone an adaptive shift to the cooler Tasmanian environment. There was also no evidence for an adaptive shift in reproductive phenology. Importantly, coastal water temperatures in eastern Tasmania during the peak spawning in August fluctuate about the 12 °C larval development threshold. Recent warming of the eastern Tasmanian coast and further warming predicted by global climate change will result in an environment increasingly favourable for the reproduction and development of C. rodgersii.     

A multi-trait approach for the identification and protection of European freshwater species that are potentially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change

We present a multi-trait approach to identify potentially vulnerable species of Ephemeroptera (mayflies), Plecoptera (stoneflies) and Trichoptera (caddisflies), collectively referred to as EPT, to the impacts of climate change (CC). The “climate change vulnerability score” (CCVS) is an aggregation of six autecological traits that are known to be associated with vulnerability to CC: endemism, micro-endemism, temperature preference, altitudinal preference, stream zonation preference, and life history. We assigned a vulnerability score (0 – invulnerable to 6 – highly vulnerable to climate change) to 1940 EPT species and discussed the applicability of the index at three spatial scales: (1) continental (Europe), (2) state (the German Federal State of North Rhine-Westphalia) and (3) a river basin (the Ruhr River). We identified 157 EPT species (ca. 8%) as highly vulnerable to climate change (CCVS ≥ 4), including 95 species of caddisflies, 60 species of stoneflies and two species of mayflies. These are mostly found in France and Italy (52 species each), Spain and Slovenia (36 and 34, respectively), and Austria and Switzerland (30 species each), of which 95 are caddisflies, 60 stoneflies, and 2 mayflies. Using data collected in routine regional sampling we show that although no endemic EPTs were found in the German Federal State of North Rhine-Westphalia, eight species can still be identified as relatively vulnerable to CC (CCVS of 3). Almost all of these species are occurring in the ‘mountainous’ regions of the state (>200 m a.s.l.), the Sauerland and the Eifel. The upper reaches of the Ruhr catchment have been found to be relatively rich in vulnerable species, including several locally rare species. This index can assist conservationists to identify “hotspots” in terms of climate vulnerability and climate change refuge areas that can be considered for protection or the application of restoration measures at a local and regional scale. Nevertheless, not all species have complete autecological information, which hinders our ability to fully recognize the areas of priority. To further stabilize and enhance the applicability of this method, it is essential to fill these knowledge gaps in the future.