气候变化对鸟类影响：长期研究的意义

过去一个多世纪全球气候发生了明显变化，地球表面温度正在逐渐变暖。已有大量研究结果表明，鸟类已经在种群动态变化、生活史特性以及地理分布范围等方面对全球气候变化作出了相应的反应。根据全球范围内气候变化对鸟类影响的研究资料，尤其是北美和欧洲的一些长期研究项目的成果，综述了气候变化对鸟类分布范围、物候、繁殖和种群动态变化等方面的可能影响。这些长期研究项目为探讨气候变化在个体和种群的水平上如何长时间地影响鸟类提供了独特的机会，对未来中国鸟类学研究也会有所裨益。     

气候变化对鸟类影响：长期研究的意义

过去一个多世纪全球气候发生了明显变化,地球表面温度正在逐渐变暖。已有大量研究结果表明,鸟类已经在种群动态变化、生活史特性以及地理分布范围等方面对全球气候变化作出了相应的反应。根据全球范围内气候变化对鸟类影响的研究资料,尤其是北美和欧洲的一些长期研究项目的成果,综述了气候变化对鸟类分布范围、物候、繁殖和种群动态变化等方面的可能影响。这些长期研究项目为探讨气候变化在个体和种群的水平上如何长时间地影响鸟类提供了独特的机会,对未来中国鸟类学研究也会有所裨益。     

全球气候变化下的海洋浮游植物多样性

理解全球气候变化对地球生态系统的影响是全世界广泛关注的问题, 而相比于陆地生态系统, 海洋生态系统对全球气候变化更为敏感。全球气候变化对海洋的影响主要表现在海洋暖化、海洋酸化、大洋环流系统的改变、海平面上升、紫外线辐射增强等方面。浮游植物是海洋生态系统最重要的初级生产者, 同时对海洋碳循环起到举足轻重的作用, 其对全球气候变化的响应主要体现在物种分布、初级生产力、群落演替、生物气候学等方面。具体表现在以下方面: 暖水种的分布范围在扩大, 冷水种分布范围在缩小; 浮游植物全球初级生产力降低; 浮游植物群落会向细胞体积更小的物种占优势的方向转变; 浮游植物水华发生的时间提前、强度增强; 一些有害物种水华的发生频率也会增加; 海洋表层海水的酸化会影响浮游植物特别是钙化类群的生长和群落多样性; 紫外辐射增强对浮游植物的生长起到抑制作用; 厄尔尼诺、拉尼娜、降水量的增加通常抑制浮游植物生长。浮游植物生长和分布的变化会体现在多样性的各个层面上。对于浮游植物在全球变化各种驱动因子下的生理生态学和长周期变动观测等是今后研究的重要方向, 也将为理解全球变化下的浮游植物-多样性-生态系统响应与反馈机制提供基本信息。     

气候变化对鸡西地区水稻生产的影响

随着全球气候的变化,我国鸡西区域的气候也发生较为显著的变化。近年来由于气温的升高和降水量逐渐的增加,影响了当地农作物的生长以及对生态环境造成了很大影响,进而对当地农业生产产生很大的影响。水稻的种植在鸡西地区占据很重要的位置,因此通过调查和研究分析当地的气候变化规律,可以有效的提高当地短期气候预测水平以及合理有效的提出应对气候变化的措施,从而有效的解决气候变化对水稻种植带来的影响。通过调查研究,本文详细介绍了气候变化对水稻种植的影响。     

中国生物多样性适应气候变化策略研究

全球气候变化不仅给人类社会可持续发展带来严峻挑战,而且严重威胁到生物多样性及生态安全。我国是生物多样性最为丰富的国家之一,气候变化已经在对动物分布、行为和迁移,植物物候、植被和群落结构等方面造成了影响,并增加了珍稀濒危物种的灭绝风险,同时对生态系统的功能方面也造成了明显影响。未来气候变化将成为生物多样性丧失的主要驱动力之一。世界很多国家都在制定生物多样性适应气候变化的策略和采取适应行动,加强生物多样性的保护。本文在分析国外适应策略的基础上,结合中国生物多样性的现状,提出了适应气候变化的策略建议,包括制定生物多样性适应气候变化的国家战略,开展气候变化对生物多样性的影响监测和评估,针对敏感物种的就地保护和迁地保护,针对气候变化将导致退化生态系统开展恢复与重建,重点关注生物多样性适应气候变化优先区的保护,通过科学研究和国际合作,促进生物多样性适应气候变化技术的提高,期望为我国生物多样性保护和应对气候变化提供支持。     

高山林线形成机理及植物相关生理生态学特性研究进展

高山林线作为极端环境条件下树木生存的界限,由于其对气候变化的敏感性,在全球变化研究中得到了广泛关注。研究高山林线形成机理以及林线地带植物相关生理生态学特性成为预测未来气候变化条件下植被动态变化的出发点。对于高山林线形成机理研究主要关注两方面问题：（1）林线地带外界环境如何限制乔木生长和分布,其内在机理如何;（2）灌木及草本相对于乔木在林线地区有哪些生存优势,从乔木到灌木及草本生活型演变的功能及意义如何。综述了当前高山林线形成机理及相关生理生态特性的国内外最新研究成果,指出尽管温度（尤其是生长季低温）在全球尺度上能解释大部分高山区域林线的分布,但树木生长和生存受限的内在机理并没有弄清楚,目前主要存在“碳受限”以及“生长受限”假说两大争论焦点。另外,理论上受温度控制的高山林线对气候变化的响应表现出不同的模式,表明全球变化对林线分布和植被生长影响的复杂性和不确定性。因此,未来的研究应该关注影响林线地区植被生长的多种生理生态学过程,比如水分及养分利用过程,以及从乔木到灌木及草本生活型演变的功能意义,从而为林线形成机理以及对气候变化的响应提供更好的解释。     

气候变化对鸟类影响的研究进展

气候变化对生物多样性的影响已成为热点问题.本文以鸟类为研究对象,根据鸟类受气候变化影响的最新研究成果,综述了气候变化对鸟类的分布、物候和种群等方面的影响.结果表明,在气候变化影响下,鸟类分布向高纬度或高海拔区移动,速度比以往加快,繁殖地和非繁殖地的分布移动变化并不相同,并且多数分布范围缩小,物候期发生复杂变化,种群数量下降明显.文章还讨论了该领域主要的预测和评估方法,以及进化适应等生物因素对气候变化预测结果的影响,除了以往单一的相关性模型外,目前应用最多的是集成模型,而未来最具发展潜力的是机理模型.进化适应方面的研究近来取得新进展,证实了生物个体积极应对气候变化影响的事实,从而对人为模型预测的准确性带来挑战.文章最后进行了总结和展望,结合国外研究经验和我国实际情况,提出一些建议:由于气候变化的影响及其研究是长期性的,从而对鸟类的历史监测数据提出很高的要求,当前我国急需建立一套长期、全面和可靠的鸟类数据监测系统;此外,人们需要综合评估现有各种预测模型的可靠性,在此基础上探索新的研究方法.     

蝴蝶对全球气候变化响应的研究综述

全球气候变化以及生物对其响应已引起人们的广泛关注。在众多生物中,蝴蝶被公认为是对全球气候变化最敏感的指示物种之一。已有大量的研究结果表明,蝴蝶类群已经在地理分布范围、生活史特性以及生物多样性变化等方面对全球气候变化作出了响应。根据全球范围内蝴蝶类群对气候变化响应的研究资料,尤其是欧美一些长期监测的研究成果,综述了蝴蝶类群在物种分布格局、物候、繁殖、形态特征变化、种群动态以及物种多样性变化等方面对气候变化的响应特征,认为温度升高和极端天气是导致蝴蝶物种分布格局和种群动态变化的主要因素。在此基础上,展望了我国开展蝴蝶类群对气候变化响应方面研究的未来发展趋势。     

适应气候变化的吉林省半干旱区玉米播种期

全球气候变化背景下,吉林省西部半干旱区气候发生明显变化,对该区域的玉米生产产生了深刻影响.本文于2008年进行了3个早播和传统播种试验,早播的玉米种子分别进行3种处理(10℃催芽、25℃催芽和干种子),考察早播不同种子处理对玉米出苗、生长和产量的影响,比较早播与传统播期对玉米生长和产量的影响.结果表明:1961-2010年,研究区玉米生长季初日提前,气温显著升高,降水呈减少趋势;目前,吉林省半干旱区玉米播种可提前至4月11日;采用10℃水温浸种催芽播种、直接播种干种子、坐水种等方式,均有利于早播的出苗和抗寒;早播玉米株高和叶面积显著高于传统播期,产量比传统播期高35％ ～48％.     

全球气候变化对野生动物的影响

全球气候变化及其影响引起了人们的关注。随着全球气候变暖,北半球物候期提前,一些野生动物的分布区北移,动物的繁殖、种群变化都发生了不同程度的变化,有的物种甚至灭绝。青藏高原是全球变化的敏感地区之一,位于青藏高原东北部的青海湖地区正向暖干化方向发展。与历史分布比较,青海湖地区现生动物的分布和组成发生了较大的变化。设计自然保护区时,考虑全球气候变化对野生动物的影响,有利于保护物种多样性,有利于保持生态系统的功能完整性。     

中国人工林经营发展战略与对策:从追求木材产量的单一目标经营转向提升生态系统服务质量和效益的多目标经营

人工林是全球森林资源的重要组成部分,在木材生产、环境改善、景观建设和减缓气候变化等方面扮演着愈来愈重要的角色。尽管我国人工林面积和蓄积不断增长,但是,人工林存在质量较差、结构不尽合理、生产力不高、生态功能较弱和生态稳定性下降等问题。人工林生态系统服务功能难以满足经济社会日益增长和新时期人们对美好生活向往的多方面需求。面对未来人工林面积继续增加受到适宜发展空间的严重制约和气候变化带来的现实和潜在的影响,亟需改变和调整我国人工林经营的发展战略和对策,将从人工林面积扩张、蓄积增加转变为人工林生态系统服务的质量和效益提升。如何提高人工林生态系统服务的质量和效益,创建健康稳定、高生产力和高碳汇的人工林生态系统,既能提供高产优质木材,又能够发挥固碳减排、生物多样性保护、水源涵养和水土保持等多种生态功能,以满足经济社会发展对森林的多种新需求和林业应对气候变化的新任务,亟需探索适合我国新时期人工林生态系统可持续经营的理论和多目标经营范式。在深入分析国际和我国人工林发展历程、变化趋势、面临问题的基础上,充分汲取和借鉴国际人工林经营的理念、经验和实践成果,并结合我国现阶段人工林发展实际情况,探索人工林生态系统服务质量与效益提升的发展思路和实践途径,从多层次、多尺度定位面向生态系统服务的人工林经营对策,倡导并实施人工林生态系统适应性经营,实现人工林生态系统服务的多目标权衡与协同,为我国人工林经营的战略转变和对策创新提供决策参考与未来展望。     

Future supply of boreal forest ecosystem services is driven by management rather than by climate change

Forests provide a wide variety of ecosystem services (ES) to society. The boreal biome is experiencing the highest rates of warming on the planet and increasing demand for forest products. To foresee how to maximize the adaptation of boreal forests to future warmer conditions and growing demands of forest products, we need a better understanding of the relative importance of forest management and climate change on the supply of ecosystem services. Here, using Finland as a boreal forest case study, we assessed the potential supply of a wide range of ES (timber, bilberry, cowberry, mushrooms, carbon storage, scenic beauty, species habitat availability and deadwood) given seven management regimes and four climate change scenarios. We used the forest simulator SIMO to project forest dynamics for 100 years into the future (2016–2116) and estimate the potential supply of each service using published models. Then, we tested the relative importance of management and climate change as drivers of the future supply of these services using generalized linear mixed models. Our results show that the effects of management on the future supply of these ES were, on average, 11 times higher than the effects of climate change across all services, but greatly differed among them (from 0.53 to 24 times higher for timber and cowberry, respectively). Notably, the importance of these drivers substantially differed among biogeographical zones within the boreal biome. The effects of climate change were 1.6 times higher in northern Finland than in southern Finland, whereas the effects of management were the opposite—they were three times higher in the south compared to the north. We conclude that new guidelines for adapting forests to global change should account for regional differences and the variation in the effects of climate change and management on different forest ES.     

Growing biodiverse carbon‐rich forests

Regrowing forests on cleared land is a key strategy to achieve both biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation globally. Maximizing these co‐benefits, however, remains theoretically and technically challenging because of the complex relationship between carbon sequestration and biodiversity in forests, the strong influence of climate variability and landscape position on forest development, the large number of restoration strategies possible, and long time‐frames needed to declare success. Through the synthesis of three decades of knowledge on forest dynamics and plant functional traits combined with decision science, we demonstrate that we cannot always maximize carbon sequestration by simply increasing the functional trait diversity of trees planted. The relationships between plant functional diversity, carbon sequestration rates above ground and in the soil are dependent on climate and landscape positions. We show how to manage ‘identities’ and ‘complementarities’ between plant functional traits to achieve systematically maximal cobenefits in various climate and landscape contexts. We provide examples of optimal planting and thinning rules that satisfy this ecological strategy and guide the restoration of forests that are rich in both carbon and plant functional diversity. Our framework provides the first mechanistic approach for generating decision‐makingrules that can be used to manage forests for multiple objectives, and supports joined carbon credit and biodiversity conservation initiatives, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation REDD+. The decision framework can also be linked to species distribution models and socio‐economic models to find restoration solutions that maximize simultaneously biodiversity, carbon stocks, and other ecosystem services across landscapes. Our study provides the foundation for developing and testing cost‐effective and adaptable forest management rules to achieve biodiversity, carbon sequestration, and other socio‐economic co‐benefits under global change.     

How is adaptation to climate change reflected in current practice of forest management and conservation? A case study from Germany

Climate change is expected to challenge forest management and nature conservation in forests. Besides forest species, strategies and references for management and conservation will be affected. In this paper, we qualitatively analysed whether forest conservation and management practice have already adapted to the impacts of climate change and to what extent those practices reflect the adaptation strategies dealt with in international peer-reviewed literature. To this end, we conducted thirteen in-depth interviews with forest practitioners (forest officers/forest district officers) in four regions in Germany. The interview regions were selected to represent the variation in tree species composition, forest ownership regimes and vulnerability to climate change. Although interviewees claimed to take climate change and adaptation strategies into account, in practice such strategies have as yet only occasionally been implemented. Our results suggest that strategies for adapting forest management to climate change are just in the early stages of development or supplement existing strategies relating to general risk reduction or nature-orientated forest management. The extent to which climate change adaptation strategies have influenced overall management varies. This variation and the lack of specific strategies also reflect the existing uncertainties about future changes in climate and about the capacity of forest ecosystems to adapt. We conclude that, in the face of climate change, forest management will have a major influence on future biodiversity composition of forest ecosystems. Hence, a framework for conservation in forests providing recommendations which also take into account the consequences of climate change needs to be developed.     

Climate change‐associated trends in net biomass change are age dependent in western boreal forests of Canada

The impacts of climate change on forest net biomass change are poorly understood but critical for predicting forest's contribution to the global carbon cycle. Recent studies show climate change‐associated net biomass declines in mature forest plots. The representativeness of these plots for regional forests, however, remains uncertain because we lack an assessment of whether climate change impacts differ with forest age. Using data from plots of varying ages from 17 to 210 years, monitored from 1958 to 2011 in western Canada, we found that climate change has little effect on net biomass change in forests ≤ 40 years of age due to increased growth offsetting increased mortality, but has led to large decreases in older forests due to increased mortality accompanying little growth gain. Our analysis highlights the need to incorporate forest age profiles in examining past and projecting future forest responses to climate change.     

Long‐term forest resilience to climate change indicated by mortality,regeneration, and growth in semiarid southern Siberia

Several studies have documented that regional climate warming and the resulting increase in drought stress have triggered increased tree mortality in semiarid forests with unavoidable impacts on regional and global carbon sequestration. Although climate warming is projected to continue into the future, studies examining long‐term resilience of semiarid forests against climate change are limited. In this study, long‐term forest resilience was defined as the capacity of forest recruitment to compensate for losses from mortality. We observed an obvious change in long‐term forest resilience along a local aridity gradient by reconstructing tree growth trend and disturbance history and investigating postdisturbance regeneration in semiarid forests in southern Siberia. In our study, with increased severity of local aridity, forests became vulnerable to drought stress, and regeneration first accelerated and then ceased. Radial growth of trees during 1900–2012 was also relatively stable on the moderately arid site. Furthermore, we found that smaller forest patches always have relatively weaker resilience under the same climatic conditions. Our results imply a relatively higher resilience in arid timberline forest patches than in continuous forests; however, further climate warming and increased drought could possibly cause the disappearance of small forest patches around the arid tree line. This study sheds light on climate change adaptation and provides insight into managing vulnerable semiarid forests.     

气候和林分类型对土壤团聚体有机碳的影响

该研究选择我国分布于亚热带、暖温带和寒温带的三个样点8种林分(包括阔叶林、混交林和针叶林)下表层0~20 cm的土壤为研究对象,利用干筛法进行大团聚体和微团聚体分级,测定了各团聚体组分的有机碳量和有机碳百分比,并分析他们与气候、植被和土壤环境变量之间的关系。结果表明:土壤大团聚体和微团聚体有机碳量都受到气候的显著影响,表现为土壤大团聚体和微团聚体有机碳量随年均温的增高而降低,经分析这与低温抑制土壤微生物分解活动有关。土壤团聚体有机碳百分比受到林分类型的影响显著,表现为阔叶林土壤团聚体有机碳百分比高于针叶林,这与林分凋落物的质量有关。此外,土壤pH值和土壤质地也影响土壤团聚体有机碳百分比。这表明气温上升和人为干扰导致的林分类型改变都可能引起土壤团聚体有机碳的下降,加剧气候变化。该研究结果有助于了解土壤团聚体有机碳的变异规律,为预测全球变化下土壤有机碳响应提供数据支持。     

北京山区3种暖温带森林生态系统未来碳平衡的模拟与分析

使用LPJ-GUESS植被动态模型, 在北京山区研究了未来100a以辽东栎 (Quercus liaotungensis) 为优势种的落叶阔叶林、以白桦 (Betula platyphylla) 为主的阔叶林和油松 (Pinus tabulaeformis) 为优势种的针阔混交林的碳变化, 定量分析了生态系统净初级生产力 (NPP) 、土壤异养呼吸 (Rh) 、净生态系统碳交换 (NEE) 和碳生物量 (Carbon bio-mass) 对两种未来气候情景 (SRES A2和B2) 以及相应大气CO2浓度变化情景的响应特征。结果表明:1) 未来100a两种气候情景下3种森林生态系统的NPP和Rh均增加, 并且A2情景下增加的程度更大;2) 由于3种生态系统树种组成的不同, 未来气候情景下各自NPP和Rh增加的比例不同, 导致三者NEE的变化也相异:100a后辽东栎林由碳汇转变为弱碳源, 白桦林仍保持为碳汇但功能减弱, 油松林成为一个更大的碳汇;3) 3种森林生态系统的碳生物量在未来气候情景下均增大, 21世纪末与20世纪末相比:辽东栎林在A2情景下碳生物量增加的比例为27.6%, 大于B2情景下的19.3%;白桦林和油松林在B2情景下碳生物量增加的比例分别为34.2%和52.2%, 大于A2情景下的30.8%和28.4%。     

气候变化、林火和采伐对大兴安岭森林碳储量的影响

大兴安岭林区林火发生的频率受气候变化的影响将会增加,可能会增加该地区森林生态系统碳损失.本研究通过耦合森林生态系统模型和森林景观模型以模拟未来百年大兴安岭森林碳储量动态变化,量化气候变化、林火和采伐对森林碳储量的影响.结果表明: 虽然采伐和林火会抵消相当一部分由气候变化增加的碳储量,但气候变化仍然能够增加大兴安岭森林碳储量.未来100年该地区森林地上和土壤有机碳储量将会分别增加9%～22%和6%～9%.短期(0～20年)气候变化对大兴安岭森林碳储量的影响大于同期林火的影响,中期(30～50年)和长期(60～100年)气候变化对森林碳储量的影响小于林火和采伐的影响.由于未来大兴安岭地区气候变化及其林火干扰存在不确定性,导致未来该地区森林碳储量存在较大的不确定性.未来100年大兴安岭森林地上碳储量和土壤有机碳储量不确定性分别为12.4%～16.2%和6.6%～10.4%.为准确估算我国北方森林生态系统碳储量,需要考虑种子传播、林火和采伐的影响.     

Linking population genetics and tree height growth models to predict impacts of climate change on forest production

Changes to forest growth models used widely in global change research and sustainable forest management are needed to account for expected climate change impacts. We provide a new approach that dynamically merges height–age functions prevalent in forest growth models with transfer functions prevalent in population adaptation research to better represent changes to forest productivity as climates gradually change. Our simulations with data from an extensive provenance test of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) in British Columbia, Canada, suggest that climate change will reduce production in lodgepole pine forests established today by at least 7–13% at the end of this century – considerably less than most predictions based solely on transfer or response functions, which do not integrate impacts as climate gradually changes. This work illustrates the need for forest productivity models to consider the changing climate in which a population is growing relative to the static climate of its origin. It also demonstrates the value of long‐term provenance trials in assessing the dynamic impact of climate change on forest productivity, and serves as an example of how provenance trials may be exploited in other forest productivity models or other research fields to assess plant responses to climate.