Study of the relationship between Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti egg and adult densities, dengue fever and climate in Mirassol, state of São Paulo, Brazil

The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between Aedes aegypti egg and adult density indices, dengue fever and climate in Mirassol, state of S?o Paulo, Brazil, between November 2004-November 2005. Weekly collections of adults and eggs were made using, respectively, manual aspirators and oviposition traps that produced four entomological indices (positivity and average of females and eggs). Weekly incidence coefficients were calculated based on dengue cases. Each week, the data obtained from entomological indices were related to each other, dengue, and climate variables. The first index to show an association with dengue transmission was the female average, followed by female positivity and egg average. Egg positivity did not show a relationship with risk for dengue, but was sensitive to identifying the presence of the vector, principally in dry seasons. The relationship between climatic factors, the vector and the disease found in this study can be widely employed in planning and undertaking dengue surveillance and control activities, but it is a tool that has not been considered by the authorities responsible for controlling the disease. In fact, this relationship permits the use of information about climate for early detection of epidemics and for establishing more effective prevention strategies than currently exist.     

Assessing the Relationship between Vector Indices and Dengue Transmission: A Systematic Review of the Evidence

Background

Despite doubts about methods used and the association between vector density and dengue transmission, routine sampling of mosquito vector populations is common in dengue-endemic countries worldwide. This study examined the evidence from published studies for the existence of any quantitative relationship between vector indices and dengue cases.

Methodology/Principal Findings

From a total of 1205 papers identified in database searches following Cochrane and PRISMA Group guidelines, 18 were included for review. Eligibility criteria included 3-month study duration and dengue case confirmation by WHO case definition and/or serology.A range of designs were seen, particularly in spatial sampling and analyses, and all but 3 were classed as weak study designs. Eleven of eighteen studies generated Stegomyia indices from combined larval and pupal data. Adult vector data were reported in only three studies. Of thirteen studies that investigated associations between vector indices and dengue cases, 4 reported positive correlations, 4 found no correlation and 5 reported ambiguous or inconclusive associations. Six out of 7 studies that measured Breteau Indices reported dengue transmission at levels below the currently accepted threshold of 5.

Conclusions/Significance

There was little evidence of quantifiable associations between vector indices and dengue transmission that could reliably be used for outbreak prediction. This review highlighted the need for standardized sampling protocols that adequately consider dengue spatial heterogeneity. Recommendations for more appropriately designed studies include: standardized study design to elucidate the relationship between vector abundance and dengue transmission; adult mosquito sampling should be routine; single values of Breteau or other indices are not reliable universal dengue transmission thresholds; better knowledge of vector ecology is required.     

Dynamics of the "popcorn" Wolbachia infection in outbred Aedes aegypti informs prospects for mosquito vector control

Forty percent of the world's population is at risk of contracting dengue virus, which produces dengue fever with a potentially fatal hemorrhagic form. The wMelPop Wolbachia infection of Drosophila melanogaster reduces life span and interferes with viral transmission when introduced into the mosquito Aedes aegypti, the primary vector of dengue virus. Wolbachia has been proposed as an agent for preventing transmission of dengue virus. Population invasion by Wolbachia depends on levels of cytoplasmic incompatibility, fitness effects, and maternal transmission. Here we characterized these traits in an outbred genetic background of a potential target population of Ae. aegypti using two crossing schemes. Cytoplasmic incompatibility was strong in this background, and the maternal transmission rate of Wolbachia was high. The infection substantially reduced longevity of infected adult females, regardless of whether adults came from larvae cultured under high or low levels of nutrition or density. The infection reduced the viability of diapausing and nondiapausing eggs. Viability was particularly low when eggs were laid by older females and when diapausing eggs had been stored for a few weeks. The infection affected mosquito larval development time and adult body size under different larval nutrition levels and densities. The results were used to assess the potential for wMelPop-CLA to invade natural populations of Ae. aegypti and to develop recommendations for the maintenance of fitness in infected mosquitoes that need to compete against field insects.     

Modelling the Meteorological Forest Fire Niche in Heterogeneous Pyrologic Conditions

Fire regimes are strongly related to weather conditions that directly and indirectly influence fire ignition and propagation. Identifying the most important meteorological fire drivers is thus fundamental for daily fire risk forecasting. In this context, several fire weather indices have been developed focussing mainly on fire-related local weather conditions and fuel characteristics. The specificity of the conditions for which fire danger indices are developed makes its direct transfer and applicability problematic in different areas or with other fuel types. In this paper we used the low-to-intermediate fire-prone region of Canton Ticino as a case study to develop a new daily fire danger index by implementing a niche modelling approach (Maxent). In order to identify the most suitable weather conditions for fires, different combinations of input variables were tested (meteorological variables, existing fire danger indices or a combination of both). Our findings demonstrate that such combinations of input variables increase the predictive power of the resulting index and surprisingly even using meteorological variables only allows similar or better performances than using the complex Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI). Furthermore, the niche modelling approach based on Maxent resulted in slightly improved model performance and in a reduced number of selected variables with respect to the classical logistic approach. Factors influencing final model robustness were the number of fire events considered and the specificity of the meteorological conditions leading to fire ignition.     

Re-assess Vector Indices Threshold as an Early Warning Tool for Predicting Dengue Epidemic in a Dengue Non-endemic Country

BackgroundDespite dengue dynamics being driven by complex interactions between human hosts, mosquito vectors and viruses that are influenced by climate factors, an operational model that will enable health authorities to anticipate the outbreak risk in a dengue non-endemic area has not been developed. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the temporal relationship between meteorological variables, entomological surveillance indices and confirmed dengue cases; and to establish the threshold for entomological surveillance indices including three mosquito larval indices [Breteau (BI), Container (CI) and House indices (HI)] and one adult index (AI) as an early warning tool for dengue epidemic.Conclusion/SignificanceThere was little evidence of quantifiable association among vector indices, meteorological factors and dengue transmission that could reliably be used for outbreak prediction. Our study here provided the proof-of-concept of how to search for the optimal model and determine the threshold for dengue epidemics. Since those factors used for prediction varied, depending on the ecology and herd immunity level under different geological areas, different thresholds may be developed for different countries using a similar structure of the two-stage model.     

Aedes aegypti survival and dengue transmission patterns in French Guiana.

Field survival of Aedes aegypti females is a key parameter for estimating the dengue transmission potential of a mosquito population. The objectives of this study were to explore the dynamics of these survival rates at different times of the year in French Guiana and to analyze the results from the perspective of dengue patterns. The mosquitoes were captured, marked, released, and recaptured during four consecutive days in six houses every month, for three to 24 months, from January 1997 to December 1998. Laboratory experiments showed no effects on female survival but some effect on the survival of males. Females' daily survival in the field varied from 0.525 to 1 but was mostly between 0.8 and 0.95 during the entire year, with a mean value of 0.913. The field survival of Ae. aegypti females in French Guiana was thus in agreement with the likely transmission of dengue and the dengue endemic patterns throughout the year. On the other hand, heavy rainfalls during this time were less favorable to Ae. aegypti survival, which may explain part of the El Ni?o effect on dengue epidemics in French Guiana. The methods and results on Ae. aegypti survival will be implemented in a global dengue surveillance network in French Guiana.     

Aedes aegypti, Aedes albopictus, and dengue in Argentina: current knowledge and future directions

Since the reinfestation of South American countries by Ae. aegypti, dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) have become a major public health concern. The aim of this paper was to review the information related with Aedes vectors and dengue in Argentina since the reintroduction of Ae. aegypti in 1986. The geographic distribution of Ae. albopictus is restricted to the Northeast, and that of Ae. aegypti has expanded towards the South and the West in comparison with the records during the eradication campaign in the 1960s. Since 1998, 4,718 DF cases have been reported concentrated in the provinces of Salta, Formosa, Misiones, Jujuy and Corrientes. Despite the circulation of three dengue virus serotypes (DENV-1, -2 and -3) in the North of the country, DHF has not occurred until the present. The information published over the last two decades regarding mosquito abundance, temporal variations, habitat characteristics, competition, and chemical and biological control, was reviewed. Considering the available information, issues pending in Argentina are discussed. The presence of three DENV, the potential spread of Ae. albopictus, and the predicted climate change suggest that dengue situation will get worse in the region. Research efforts should be increased in the Northern provinces, where DHF is currently an actual risk.     

Selection for virulent dengue viruses occurs in humans and mosquitoes

Dengue is the most common mosquito-borne viral disease in humans. The spread of both mosquito vectors and viruses has led to the resurgence of epidemic dengue fever (a self-limited flu-like syndrome) and the emergence of dengue hemorrhagic fever (severe dengue with bleeding abnormalities) in urban centers of the tropics. There are no animal or laboratory models of dengue disease; indirect evidence suggests that dengue viruses differ in virulence, including their pathogenicities for humans and epidemic potential. We developed two assay systems (using human dendritic cells and Aedes aegypti mosquitoes) for measuring differences in virus replication that correlate with the potential to cause hemorrhagic dengue and increased virus transmission. Infection and growth experiments showed that dengue serotype 2 viruses causing dengue hemorrhagic fever epidemics (Southeast Asian genotype) can outcompete viruses that cause dengue fever only (American genotype). This fact implies that Southeast Asian genotype viruses will continue to displace other viruses, causing more hemorrhagic dengue epidemics.     

闽北地区森林群落物种多样性的测定

采用8个物种多样性指数对闽北地区的8个森林群落类型物种多样性进行测定,并选用4个种一多度关系模型(对数正态分布、Weibull分布、对数级数分布、生态位优先占领模型)分析其物种-多度关系,把多样性指数与对数正态分布、Weibull分布和生态位优先占领模型的有关参数进行线性回归,以分析多度模型参数描述物种多样性的可行性。结果表明：(1)多数物种多样性指数对群落的测度是一致的,(2)对数正态分布、Weibull分布和生态位优先占领模型对8个群落的物种多度拟合效果很好;(3)对数正态分布、Weibull分布和生态位优先占领模型有关模型参数与部分物种多样性指数的线性关系达显著或极显著水平。通过闽北地区8个类型森林群落物种多样性指数测定,使生物多样性较准确地数量化,同时还说明采用改进单纯形法进行非线性分布函数的拟合是简单有效的,可推广应用。     

Risk of dengue occurrence based on the capture of gravid Aedes aegypti females using MosquiTRAP

We assessed the risk classification of dengue fever based on the capture of Aedes aegypti adults using MosquiTRAP, a type of sticky trap, in comparison with traditional larval infestation indices. A total of 27 MosquiTRAPs were installed, with one trap per block, and were inspected weekly between November 2008-February 2009. Infestation baseline data were obtained from a survey conducted prior to trap installation. The index generated by MosquiTRAP and house index (HI) classified the area "in alert situation". The set for risk of dengue occurrence proposed by the use of MosquiTRAP classify areas in the same way of the traditional HI.     

Determination of dengue virus serotypes in individual Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in Colombia

Adult Aedes aegypti mosquitoes were collected in Puerto Triunfo, central Colombia, where dengue is endemic, during a six month period. Viral infection within the head of each individual mosquito was identified by an immunofluorescent assay (IFA) using a flavivirus-specific monoclonal antibody. The dengue virus serotype, present in each flavivirus-positive specimen, was then determined in portions of the remaining thorax using IFAs with serotype-specific monoclonal antibodies. Among 2065 female Aedes aegypti collected and tested, twenty-four flavivirus-positive individuals were found (minimum infection rate 11.6%), three identified as dengue type-1 and twenty-one as dengue type-2 virus. This was consistent with the isolation of only these two serotypes of dengue virus from dengue fever patients within this town. No vertical transmission of dengue virus could be detected in 1552 male Aedes aegypti collected. This method is inexpensive, simple, rapid to perform and suitable for use in developing countries to identify and distinguish different serotypes of dengue virus in their vectors during eco-epidemiological investigations.     

Population dynamics of Aedes aegypti and dengue as influenced by weather and human behavior in San Juan, Puerto Rico

Previous studies on the influence of weather on Aedes aegypti dynamics in Puerto Rico suggested that rainfall was a significant driver of immature mosquito populations and dengue incidence, but mostly in the drier areas of the island. We conducted a longitudinal study of Ae. aegypti in two neighborhoods of the metropolitan area of San Juan city, Puerto Rico where rainfall is more uniformly distributed throughout the year. We assessed the impacts of rainfall, temperature, and human activities on the temporal dynamics of adult Ae. aegypti and oviposition. Changes in adult mosquitoes were monitored with BG-Sentinel traps and oviposition activity with CDC enhanced ovitraps. Pupal surveys were conducted during the drier and wetter parts of the year in both neighborhoods to determine the contribution of humans and rains to mosquito production. Mosquito dynamics in each neighborhood was compared with dengue incidence in their respective municipalities during the study. Our results showed that: 1. Most pupae were produced in containers managed by people, which explains the prevalence of adult mosquitoes at times when rainfall was scant; 2. Water meters were documented for the first time as productive habitats for Ae. aegypti; 3. Even though Puerto Rico has a reliable supply of tap water and an active tire recycling program, water storage containers and discarded tires were important mosquito producers; 4. Peaks in mosquito density preceded maximum dengue incidence; and 5. Ae. aegypti dynamics were driven by weather and human activity and oviposition was significantly correlated with dengue incidence.     

中国谷子潜在地理分布的多模型比较

谷子是中国干旱和半干旱区主要的粮食作物之一.它耐旱、耐瘠薄、抗逆性强、适应性广,是未来应对干旱形势的重要战略储备作物.本文基于谷子的157个地理分布点数据,利用中国谷子产量与环境指标的相关性分析,选出10个气候指标、7个土壤指标和3个地形指标,采用MaxEnt、EMFA、RF和GAM共4个物种分布模型,分析中国谷子的潜在适宜性分布.结果表明: 4种模型均可成功模拟谷子的潜在地理分布,其中,MaxEnt模型的模拟效果最好.选用的环境指标中,水热条件对谷子生长最敏感.模型结果结合ArcGIS空间分析模块的结果表明,中国谷子的潜在适宜生长区(最适宜区和适宜区)总面积为55.68×10⁴ km²,远远大于当前谷子的实际种植面积,主要集中在东北地区的东北平原、长白山以南与牡丹江流域,华北地区的淮河以北,华中地区汉江以东与大别山以北,西北地区的黄土高原、鄂尔多斯高原南部、祁连山脉东部、天山山脉东部与阿尔泰山脉,西南地区的重庆以北和贵州西部局地区域.     

The ecological determinants of severe dengue: A Bayesian inferential model

Low socioeconomic status (SES), high temperature, and increasing rainfall patterns are associated with increased dengue case counts. However, the effect of climatic variables on individual dengue virus (DENV) serotypes and the extent to which serotype count affects the rate of severe dengue in Mexico have not been studied before. A principal components analysis was used to determine the poverty indices across Mexico. Conditional autoregressive Bayesian models were used to determine the effect of poverty and climatic variables on the rate of serotype distribution and severe dengue in Mexico. A unit increase in poverty increased the rate of DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3, and DENV-4 by 8.4%, 5%, 16%, and 13.8% respectively. An increase in one case attributable to DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3, and DENV-4 was independently associated with an increase in the rate of severe dengue by 0.02%, 0.1%, 0.03%, and 5.8% respectively. Hotspots of all DENV serotypes and severe dengue are found mostly in parts of the Northeastern, Center west, and Southeastern regions of Mexico. The association between climatic parameters predominant in the Southeast region and severe dengue leaves several states in this region at an increased risk of a higher number of severe dengue cases. Our study's results may guide policies that help allocate public health resources to the most vulnerable municipalities in Mexico.     

Integrating mechanistic and empirical model projections to assess climate impacts on tree species distributions in northwestern North America

Empirical and mechanistic models have both been used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on species distributions, and each modeling approach has its strengths and weaknesses. Here, we demonstrate an approach to projecting climate‐driven changes in species distributions that draws on both empirical and mechanistic models. We combined projections from a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) that simulates the distributions of biomes based on basic plant functional types with projections from empirical climatic niche models for six tree species in northwestern North America. These integrated model outputs incorporate important biological processes, such as competition, physiological responses of plants to changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, and fire, as well as what are likely to be species‐specific climatic constraints. We compared the integrated projections to projections from the empirical climatic niche models alone. Overall, our integrated model outputs projected a greater climate‐driven loss of potentially suitable environmental space than did the empirical climatic niche model outputs alone for the majority of modeled species. Our results also show that refining species distributions with DGVM outputs had large effects on the geographic locations of suitable habitat. We demonstrate one approach to integrating the outputs of mechanistic and empirical niche models to produce bioclimatic projections. But perhaps more importantly, our study reveals the potential for empirical climatic niche models to over‐predict suitable environmental space under future climatic conditions.     

Potential impact of a presumed increase in the biting activity of dengue-virus-infected Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) females on virus transmission dynamics

Recently, we showed that infection with dengue virus increases the locomotor activity of Aedes aegypti females. We speculate that the observed increased locomotor activity could potentially increase the chances of finding a suitable host and, as a consequence, the relative biting rate of infected mosquitoes. We used a mathematical model to investigate the impact of the increased locomotor activity by assuming that this activity translated into an increased biting rate for infected mosquitoes. The results show that the increased biting rate resulted in dengue outbreaks with greater numbers of primary and secondary infections and with more severe biennial epidemics.     

Abundance and distribution of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae), and dengue dispersion in Guasave Sinaloa, Mexico

Dengue is an important disease that affects humans, and is transmitted by A. aegypti. During 2006, a total of 477 cases of hemorrhagic dengue, and 1 510 of classic dengue were recorded in Sinaloa. Due to this high impact, a study on insect abundance and distribution, as well as their relationship with dengue dispersion, was carried out from April 2008 to March 2009 in Guasave, Sinaloa. The study included a total of six sectors in the city, considering 16 colonies; besides, 96 traps were distributed in these sectors to monitor the vector population density and female number per trap. The adult density index (ADI) and traps positive index (TPI) were calculated, and data were used to obtain the monthly dengue dispersion maps. The highest abundance of female (137 and 139) was found in July and August. In August and September the sectors 2, 4 and 6 showed the highest ADI values 2.44, 3.35 and 2.290, while TPI values were 56.25, 58.82 and 61.54, with the highest epidemiology dengue dispersion. The Pearson correlation (p < 0.05) showed better values with the precipitation (r = 0.80) than mean temperature (r = 0.76) with zero lag months; while the cases of classic dengue and hemorrhagic dengue (CD/HD) is mostly related with the precipitation (r = 0.98), and minimum temperature (r = 0.79), with two lag months. In conclusion, the ADI and TPI index, as well as the maps obtained, allowed us to know the location of epidemiologic dengue risk areas. This information can be used to develop better control measures biological and chemical for the mosquito, in this location.     

Cetacean range and climate in the eastern North Atlantic: future predictions and implications for conservation

There is increasing evidence that the distributions of a large number of species are shifting with global climate change as they track changing surface temperatures that define their thermal niche. Modelling efforts to predict species distributions under future climates have increased with concern about the overall impact of these distribution shifts on species ecology, and especially where barriers to dispersal exist. Here we apply a bio‐climatic envelope modelling technique to investigate the impacts of climate change on the geographic range of ten cetacean species in the eastern North Atlantic and to assess how such modelling can be used to inform conservation and management. The modelling process integrates elements of a species' habitat and thermal niche, and employs “hindcasting” of historical distribution changes in order to verify the accuracy of the modelled relationship between temperature and species range. If this ability is not verified, there is a risk that inappropriate or inaccurate models will be used to make future predictions of species distributions. Of the ten species investigated, we found that while the models for nine could successfully explain current spatial distribution, only four had a good ability to predict distribution changes over time in response to changes in water temperature. Applied to future climate scenarios, the four species‐specific models with good predictive abilities indicated range expansion in one species and range contraction in three others, including the potential loss of up to 80% of suitable white‐beaked dolphin habitat. Model predictions allow identification of affected areas and the likely time‐scales over which impacts will occur. Thus, this work provides important information on both our ability to predict how individual species will respond to future climate change and the applicability of predictive distribution models as a tool to help construct viable conservation and management strategies.     

Incomplete surveillance of a dengue-2 epidemic in Ibagué, Colombia, 1995-1997

From April 1995 through November 1997 a dengue epidemic occurred in Ibagué (400,000 population), Colombia, where 3,419 cases were reported and DEN 2 virus was isolated from seven patients. A sero-survey conducted in 1996 found evidence of previous dengue infection in 9.6% of the population, indicating that many infections had not been reported. The dengue infections occurred in all age groups, but children under five years of age were most frequently infected. Forty-five percent of this Ibagué population were born after the re-appearance of dengue in Colombia in 1972, but have never been infected with dengue virus. Most of the cases reported as dengue hemorrhagic fever did not fulfill the current case definition. Aedes aegypti larvae were found in 19% of dwellings surveyed, most often in uncovered low tanks used for water storage. Many residents were not acquainted with the domestic nature of the mosquito vector. Health workers attributed the failure of the dengue control programs to lack of leadership and other administrative problems.     

Assessing the impact of density dependence in field populations of Aedes aegypti

Although many laboratory studies of intra-specific competition have been conducted with Ae. aegypti, there have been few studies in natural environments and none that examined density dependence in natural containers at normal field densities. Additionally, current mathematical models that predict Ae. aegypti population dynamics lack empirically-based functions for density-dependence. We performed field experiments in Tapachula, Mexico, where dengue is a significant public health concern. Twenty-one containers with natural food and water that already contained larvae were collected from local houses. Each container was divided in half and the naturally occurring larvae were apportioned in a manner that resulted in one side of the container (high density) having four times the density of the second side (low density). Larvae were counted and pupae were removed daily. Once adults emerged, wing span was measured to estimate body size. Density had a significant impact on larval survival, adult body size, and the time taken to transition from 4(th) instar to pupation. Increased density decreased larval survival by 20% and decreased wing length by an average of 0.19 mm. These results provide a starting point for a better understanding of density dependence in field populations of Ae. aegypti.