Towards a Solution to the Goose-Agriculture Conflict in North Norway, 1988–2012: The Interplay between Policy,Stakeholder Influence and Goose Population Dynamics

This paper presents results from a multidisciplinary study of a negotiation process between farmers and wildlife authorities which led to an agricultural subsidy scheme to alleviate conflicts between agriculture and geese in Norway. The Svalbard-breeding population of pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus has increased considerably over the last decades and conflicts with farmers have escalated, especially at stopover sites in spring when geese feed on newly sprouted pasture grass. In Vesterålen, an important stopover site for geese in North Norway, farmers deployed scaring of geese at varying intensity dependent on the level of conflict during 1988–2012. We assessed the efficiency of a subsidy scheme established in 2006, in terms of its conflict mitigation, reflected in a near discontinuation of scaring activities. The presence of pink-footed geese was analysed in relation to scaring intensity, the total goose population size and the increasing occurrence of another goose species, the barnacle goose Branta leucopsis. Scaring significantly affected the number of geese staging in Vesterålen, both in absolute and relative terms (controlling for total population size). The geese responded immediately to an increased, and reduced, level of scaring. Despite the establishment of the subsidy scheme, the number of pink-footed geese has recently declined which is probably caused by the increasing number of barnacle geese. For the farmers, the subsidy scheme provides funding that reduces the economic costs caused by the geese. Sustaining a low level of conflict will require close monitoring, dialogue and adaptation of the subsidy scheme to cater for changes in goose population dynamics.     

Extrapolating herbivore-induced carbon loss across an arctic landscape

A high proportion of the global soil carbon stock is stored in tundra soils. However, populations of arctic-breeding migratory geese including pink-footed geese, Anser brachyrhynchus, are increasing due to agricultural changes and conservation measures in their wintering grounds. Foraging by these geese, which is widespread in extent, reduces the quantity of carbon stored in arctic tundra ecosystems. Here, the potential carbon loss caused by foraging pink-footed geese is modelled across the high-arctic archipelago of Svalbard, combining field experiments, habitat maps and published spatial models of foraging. The carbon loss caused by foraging geese was estimated three growing seasons following perturbation allowing for some recovery to take place. The carbon loss caused by 1-year worth of grubbing was estimated to be 1,700 tonnes, or 37 kg per goose. A total of over 340,000 tonnes of carbon could be affected given an unlimited increase in goose population. Estimated losses were mostly from wetter habitats, which are both carbon rich and highly selected for by foraging geese. The across-landscape carbon loss caused by geese is not great in magnitude in comparison to expected climate-driven carbon losses; however, it is locally severe, and demonstrates how migratory connectivity links processes, such as agricultural change and conservation measures in temperate Europe with carbon dynamics in the high arctic.     

Lack of competition between barnacle geese Branta leucopsis and pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus during the pre-breeding period in Svalbard

The feeding ecology of barnacle geese and pink-footed geese was studied in Sassendalen, Svalbard during the pre-nesting period (late May) to assess the potential for inter-specific competition. Barnacle geese fed almost exclusively (97%) by grazing above-ground plant material, mostly (79%) along snow edges in moss-mat habitats. Pink-footed geese fed mostly (93%) by excavating below-ground parts of plants, mostly (56%) away from snow and were more evenly distributed between habitat types. Barnacle goose faeces contained mostly (62%) moss, that of pink-footed geese mostly (48%) below-ground plant storage organs (especially Bistorta viviparum L.). Principal components analysis of dropping contents showed no overlap in species diet in allopatry or sympatry. There was little overlap in diet and feeding ecology of the two species at this pre-nesting feeding site. Hence, unless increased goose feeding densities affect future vegetation density and composition, under present circumstances, increasing numbers of either species is unlikely to affect foraging conditions for the other at this important stage in the annual cycle. However, such changes could have local density-dependent intra-specific effects.     

Prevalence of pink-footed goose grubbing in the arctic tundra increases with population expansion

In the high-arctic archipelago of Svalbard, the pink-footed goose (Anser brachyrhynchus) population has increased dramatically over the last decades. The population increase and the corresponding range expansion suggest a substantial increase in the potential for disturbance of the tundra caused by goose herbivory. In this study, we used surveys of pink-footed goose grubbing from two separate years (2007 and 2012) to examine the temporal changes in the prevalence of grubbing in central Spitsbergen. During this time period, the Svalbard-breeding pink-footed goose population had increased from 56,400 to 80,000 individuals. We compared grubbing prevalence between the 2 years, standardising the comparison by using a published model of habitat suitability for grubbing (Speed et al. in Ecosystems 12:349-359, 2009) as a covariate. Habitat suitability was a significant predictor of grubbing prevalence across both years, with higher grubbing probability in habitats predicted to be more suitable for grubbing. The probability of grubbing was on average 4 times higher in 2012 than in 2007. In 2007, all tundra habitats had a probability of <27 % of being grubbed whilst in 2012, there was a probability for being grubbed of more than 34 % in the least suitable habitat and around 59 % in the most suitable habitat. The increase in grubbing prevalence demonstrates a great need for monitoring the expanding pink-footed goose population and its impact on the tundra landscape.     

Spatial and temporal feeding segregation of two Icelandic goose species during the spring pre-nesting period

The pre-nesting feeding behaviour of greylag Anser anser and pink-footed geese A brachyrhynchus was studied on agricultural land at low altitude in southern Iceland from 10 April to 8 May 1990 Greylag geese were already present on 12 April increased to 4580 birds by 24 April, but declined to 1300 by 3 May Pink-footed geese arrived around 20 April and numbers continued to increase to a peak count of 11340 on 3 May Over 60% of greylag geese initially used stubble fields on the coast where this habitat was most frequent, but increasingly resorted to grassland and wetland habitats during late April Later-arriving pink-feet predominantly used managed grassland, away from coastal areas At inland grassland sites, greylag numbers peaked on 20 April, pink-feet m early May The early exploitation by greylags was associated with grass growth initiated under protective snow-patches Greylags spent 90 times more time feeding within 1 m of snow patches with enhanced grass growth than expected by chance and their feeding rates near snow patches were faster and their step rates slower than further away By early May, grass growth was uniform and, although snow-patches persisted, no difference in forage quality, goose feeding rates or step rates could be detected It is concluded that, in spring 1990 at least, habitat segregation during spring migration in southern Iceland minimised competition between these two closely related goose species within the same geographical area In areas where both species exploit the same habitat, a two week difference m timing of breeding (and hence phenology of migration) further assures minimal overlap in feeding exploitation     

Scale-dependent habitat selection by wintering geese: implications for landscape management

The management of Arctic migrant geese is complex, because they frequently use landscapes under intensive human use, and are conflict species in multiple respects. Some populations are of high conservation concern, but they also cause agricultural damage, are quarry for hunters, and may be particularly sensitive to infrastructure developments. In Bulgarian Dobrudzha, large wintering populations of greater white-fronted geese Anser albifrons and red-breasted geese Branta ruficollis feed in agricultural land, and cause management dilemmas. We developed linear models to investigate fine- and meso-scale foraging habitat selection of geese foraging on winter wheat in the area, and used these models to make suggestions for zoning landscape use in order to reduce conflict and conserve geese. Habitat selection was scale-dependent. Geese selected fields that were near to major roosts and had low proximity to roads and tree-lines, which may be a proxy for hunting disturbance. We found some evidence for selection of wheat fields with high nutritional quality. Within fields, geese strongly avoided features which cause landscape ‘clutter’: power-lines, tree-lines and wind-turbines, but primarily over distances of less than a few hundred metres. Optimal management might involve encouraging goose populations to feed in areas close to roosts, by means of agri-environmental measures and creation of hunting-free refuges. This would allow efficient use of agri-environment funds, might reduce conflict with farmers, and would mean that infrastructure development—notably wind farms—could be sited at greater distance from roosts with relatively minor impact on foraging habitat availability.     

Synergistic effects of climate and land-use change on representation of African bats in priority conservation areas

Bats are considered important bioindicators and deliver key ecosystem services to humans. However, it is not clear how the individual and combined effects of climate change and land-use change will affect their conservation in the future. We used a spatial conservation prioritization framework to determine future shifts in the priority areas for the conservation of 169 bat species under projected climate and land-use change scenarios across Africa. Specifically, we modelled species distribution models under four different climate change scenarios at the 2050 horizon. We used land-use change scenarios within the spatial conservation prioritization framework to assess habitat quality in areas where bats may shift their distributions. Overall, bats’ representation within already existing protected areas in Africa was low (∼5% of their suitable habitat in protected areas which cover ∼7% of Africa). Accounting for future land-use change resulted in the largest shift in spatial priority areas for conservation actions, and species representation within priority areas for conservation actions decreased by ∼9%. A large proportion of spatial conservation priorities will shift from forested areas with little disturbance under present conditions to agricultural areas in the future. Planning land use to reduce impacts on bats in priority areas outside protected areas where bats will be shifting their ranges in the future is crucial to enhance their conservation and maintain the important ecosystem services they provide to humans.     

Habitat switching by dark-bellied brent geese Branta b. bernicla (L.) in relation to food depletion

Seasonal changes in the distribution and feeding behaviour of dark-bellied brent geese Branta b. bernicla (L.) and the biomass of their food plants were studied in three successive winters on the Norfolk coast. The data was used, in conjunction with published information, to show how depletion, productivity and mortality of food plants drive the pattern of habitat switching in this species. It is then possible to explain the habitat shifts observed over the last 35 years and predict future changes. On arrival, geese fed first on algal beds and then on salt marsh, grass and arable fields before returning to feed entirely on the salt marsh in spring. The biomass of green algae, and subsequently the salt marsh vegetation, declined during the autumn and this could be attributed to depletion through goose grazing and natural mortality. As depletion occurred the geese fed more intensively, for a greater percentage of time and with an increasing pace rate, the net result, however, was a declining intake rate (as measured by defaecation rate). The algal biomass at which the geese switched from the algal beds to salt marsh was consistent between years, with heavy storm-induced loss of algae in one year resulting in an earlier switch. That the timing of habitat switches may be explained by depletion of food plants was further supported by historical data: the number of brent geese wintering at the site has increased dramatically over the last 30–35 years and the time of switching from algal beds to salt marsh and from salt marsh to salt marsh and fields has become progressively earlier, as expected from the increased depletion. The expected further increase in brent goose numbers will increase the rate of depletion of intertidal vegetation so that the switches between habitats will be more rapid and the geese will move inland earlier and remain inland longer. The expected increase in the brent goose population will thus result in a disproportionate increase in the levels of conflict between brent geese and agriculture.     

Forecasting the Effects of Land Use Scenarios on Farmland Birds Reveal a Potential Mitigation of Climate Change Impacts

Climate and land use changes are key drivers of current biodiversity trends, but interactions between these drivers are poorly modeled, even though they could amplify or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Here, we attempt to predict the impacts of different agricultural change scenarios on common breeding birds within farmland included in the potential future climatic suitable areas for these species. We used the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) to integrate likely changes in species climatic suitability, based on species distribution models, and changes in area of farmland, based on the IMAGE model, inside future climatic suitable areas. We also developed six farmland cover scenarios, based on expert opinion, which cover a wide spectrum of potential changes in livestock farming and cropping patterns by 2050. We ran generalized linear mixed models to calibrate the effects of farmland cover and climate change on bird specific abundance within 386 small agricultural regions. We used model outputs to predict potential changes in bird populations on the basis of predicted changes in regional farmland cover, in area of farmland and in species climatic suitability. We then examined the species sensitivity according to their habitat requirements. A scenario based on extensification of agricultural systems (i.e., low-intensity agriculture) showed the greatest potential to reduce reverse current declines in breeding birds. To meet ecological requirements of a larger number of species, agricultural policies accounting for regional disparities and landscape structure appear more efficient than global policies uniformly implemented at national scale. Interestingly, we also found evidence that farmland cover changes can mitigate the negative effect of climate change. Here, we confirm that there is a potential for countering negative effects of climate change by adaptive management of landscape. We argue that such studies will help inform sustainable agricultural policies for the future.     

Minimal intra-seasonal dietary overlap of barnacle and pink-footed geese on their breeding grounds in Svalbard

We analysed barnacle Branta leucopsis and pink-footed goose Anser brachyrhynchus summer diets (May–July 2003) based on the proportions of different plant constituents in the faecal material of adult breeding birds in Sassendalen, Svalbard to assess potential inter-specific competition. Diets were highly restricted and overlapped little during pre-nesting and post hatch. During incubation both species showed greatest variety in their diet, reflecting site-specific differences in local food abundance. However, locally the diets of pink-footed and barnacle geese resembled each other most at this time (although still differing significantly). The conflicting needs of nest defence and maintenance of body condition constrains the extent of the feeding resource utilised by nesting pairs and explains slightly greater dietary overlap at this time. Hence, there is little evidence of inter-specific competition (interference or depletion) at present, but this is most likely to be manifest during the incubation period in the future if goose numbers continue to increase. More detailed investigations of the degree of spatial overlap of the two species and their effects on plant structure, quality and community composition are necessary to predict likely outcomes of expected increases in numbers of both goose species.     

Current and future distribution of a parasite with complex life cycle under global change scenarios: Echinococcus multilocularis in Europe

Global change is expected to have complex effects on the distribution and transmission patterns of zoonotic parasites. Modelling habitat suitability for parasites with complex life cycles is essential to further our understanding of how disease systems respond to environmental changes, and to make spatial predictions of their future distributions. However, the limited availability of high quality occurrence data with high spatial resolution often constrains these investigations. Using 449 reliable occurrence records for Echinococcus multilocularis from across Europe published over the last 35 years, we modelled habitat suitability for this parasite, the aetiological agent of alveolar echinococcosis, in order to describe its environmental niche, predict its current and future distribution under three global change scenarios, and quantify the probability of occurrence for each European country. Using a machine learning approach, we developed large-scale (25 × 25 km) species distribution models based on seven sets of predictors, each set representing a distinct biological hypothesis supported by current knowledge of the autecology of the parasite. The best-supported hypothesis included climatic, orographic and land-use/land-cover variables such as the temperature of the coldest quarter, forest cover, urban cover and the precipitation seasonality. Future projections suggested the appearance of highly suitable areas for E. multilocularis towards northern latitudes and in the whole Alpine region under all scenarios, while decreases in habitat suitability were predicted for central Europe. Our spatially explicit predictions of habitat suitability shed light on the complex responses of parasites to ongoing global changes.     

Survival of Svalbard pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus in relation to winter climate, density and land-use

1. Global change may strongly affect population dynamics, but mechanisms remain elusive. Several Arctic goose species have increased considerably during the last decades. Climate, and land-use changes outside the breeding area have been invoked as causes but have not been tested. We analysed the relationships between conditions on wintering and migration staging areas, and survival in Svalbard pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus. Using mark-recapture data from 14 winters (1989-2002) we estimated survival rates and tested for time trends, and effects of climate, goose density and land-use. 2. Resighting rates differed for males and females, were higher for birds recorded during the previous winter and changed smoothly over time. Survival rates did not differ between sexes, varied over time with a nonsignificant negative trend, and were higher for the first interval after marking (0.88-0.97) than afterwards (0.74-0.93). Average survival estimates were 0.967 (SE 0.026) for the first and 0.861 (SE 0.023) for all later survival intervals. 3. We combined 16 winter and spring climate covariates into two principal components axes. F1 was related to warm/wet winters and an early spring on the Norwegian staging areas and F2 to dry/cold winters. We expected that F1 would be positively related to survival and F2 negatively. F1 explained 23% of survival variation (F1,10=3.24; one-sided P=0.051) when alone in a model and 28% (F1,9=4.50; one-sided P=0.031) in a model that assumed a trend for survival. In contrast, neither F2 nor density, land-use, or scaring practices on important Norwegian spring staging areas had discernible effects on survival. 4. Climate change may thus affect goose population dynamics, with warmer winters and earlier springs enhancing survival and fecundity. A possible mechanism is increased food availability on Danish wintering and Norwegian staging areas. As geese are among the main herbivores in Arctic ecosystems, climate change, by increasing goose populations, may have important indirect effects on Arctic vegetation. Our study also highlights the importance of events outside the breeding area for the population dynamics of migrant species.     

Snow conditions as an estimator of the breeding output in high-Arctic pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus

The Svalbard-breeding population of pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus has increased during the last decades and is giving rise to agricultural conflicts along their migration route, as well as causing grazing impacts on tundra vegetation. An adaptive flyway management plan has been implemented, which will be based on predictive population models including environmental variables expected to affect goose population development, such as weather conditions on the breeding grounds. A local study in Svalbard showed that snow cover prior to egg laying is a crucial factor for the reproductive output of pink-footed geese, and MODIS satellite images provided a useful estimator of snow cover. In this study, we up-scaled the analysis to the population level by examining various measures of snow conditions and compared them with the overall breeding success of the population as indexed by the proportion of juveniles in the autumn population. As explanatory variables, we explored MODIS images, satellite-based radar measures of onset of snow melt, winter NAO index, and the May temperature sum and May thaw days. To test for the presence of density dependence, we included the number of adults in the population. For 2000–2011, MODIS-derived snow cover (available since 2000) was the strongest indicator of breeding conditions. For 1981–2011, winter NAO and May thaw days had equal weight. Interestingly, there appears to have been a phase shift from density-dependent to density-independent reproduction, which is consistent with a hypothesis of released breeding potential due to the recent advancement of spring in Svalbard.     

Predicting Habitat Utilization and Extent of Ecosystem Disturbance by an Increasing Herbivore Population

Herbivory can lead to shifts in ecosystem state or changes in ecosystem functioning, and recovery from herbivory is particularly slow in disturbance-sensitive ecosystems such as arctic tundra. Herbivore impacts on ecosystems are variable in space and time due to population fluctuations and selective utilization of habitats; thus there is a need to accurately predict herbivore impacts at the landscape scale. The habitat utilization and extent of disturbance caused by increasing populations of pink-footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) foraging in the high arctic tundra of Svalbard were assessed using a predictive model of the population’s habitat use. Pink-footed geese arrive in Svalbard in early spring when they forage for belowground plant parts; this foraging (called grubbing) can cause vegetation loss and soil disturbance. Surveys of the extent and intensity of grubbing were carried out to develop predictive models that were subsequently tested against data collected during the following year from different areas. Both habitat type at a particular point and the amount of preferred fen habitat in the surrounding area were powerful predictors of grubbing likelihood and the developed model correctly classified over 69% of validation observations with an AUC of 0.75. Pink-footed geese showed a strong preference for wetter habitats within low-lying landscapes. Extrapolation of the predictive model across the archipelago showed that a maximum potential area of 2300 km² (3.8% of the archipelago) could be disturbed by grubbing. Thus, increasing populations of geese may cause large-scale vegetation loss and soil disturbance in arctic ecosystems.     

Observed and projected functional reorganization of riverine fish assemblages from global change

Climate and land-use/land-cover change (“global change”) are restructuring biodiversity, globally. Broadly, environmental conditions are expected to become warmer, potentially drier (particularly in arid regions), and more anthropogenically developed in the future, with spatiotemporally complex effects on ecological communities. We used functional traits to inform Chesapeake Bay Watershed fish responses to future climate and land-use scenarios (2030, 2060, and 2090). We modeled the future habitat suitability of focal species representative of key trait axes (substrate, flow, temperature, reproduction, and trophic) and used functional and phylogenetic metrics to assess variable assemblage responses across physiographic regions and habitat sizes (headwaters through large rivers). Our focal species analysis projected future habitat suitability gains for carnivorous species with preferences for warm water, pool habitats, and fine or vegetated substrates. At the assemblage level, models projected decreasing habitat suitability for cold-water, rheophilic, and lithophilic individuals but increasing suitability for carnivores in the future across all regions. Projected responses of functional and phylogenetic diversity and redundancy differed among regions. Lowland regions were projected to become less functionally and phylogenetically diverse and more redundant while upland regions (and smaller habitat sizes) were projected to become more diverse and less redundant. Next, we assessed how these model-projected assemblage changes 2005–2030 related to observed time-series trends (1999–2016). Halfway through the initial projecting period (2005–2030), we found observed trends broadly followed modeled patterns of increasing proportions of carnivorous and lithophilic individuals in lowland regions but showed opposing patterns for functional and phylogenetic metrics. Leveraging observed and predicted analyses simultaneously helps elucidate the instances and causes of discrepancies between model predictions and ongoing observed changes. Collectively, results highlight the complexity of global change impacts across broad landscapes that likely relate to differences in assemblages' intrinsic sensitivities and external exposure to stressors.     

Where will conflicts between alien and rare species occur after climate and land-use change? A test with a novel combined modelling approach

Protecting native biodiversity against alien invasive species requires powerful methods to anticipate these invasions and to protect native species assumed to be at risk. Here, we describe how species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to identify areas predicted as both suitable for rare native species and highly susceptible to invasion by alien species, at present and under future climate and land-use scenarios. To assess the condition and dynamics of such conflicts, we developed a combined predictive modelling (CPM) approach, which predicts species distributions by combining two SDMs fitted using subsets of predictors classified as acting at either regional or local scales. We illustrate the CPM approach for an alien invader and a rare species associated with similar habitats in northwest Portugal. Combined models predict a wider variety of potential species responses, providing more informative projections of species distributions and future dynamics than traditional, non-combined models. They also provide more informative insight regarding current and future rare-invasive conflict areas. For our studied species, conflict areas of highest conservation relevance are predicted to decrease over the next decade, supporting previous reports that some invasive species may contract their geographic range and impact due to climate change. More generally, our results highlight the more informative character of the combined approach to address practical issues in conservation and management programs, especially those aimed at mitigating the impact of invasive plants, land-use and climate changes in sensitive regions.     

Feeding by geese on the Filsø Farmland, Denmark, and the effect of grazing on yield structure of spring barley

From the end of August to early May on average 506400 goose days were spent on the farmland of Filsø, 92% by pink-footed geese, 7% by greylag geese and 1% by bean geese. 36% of the goose days were spent on stubbles (autumn), 38% on stubbles with undersown seed grass (autumn-spring), and 21% on new-sown barley fields (spring).
Geese feeding on spring barley consume kernels left on the surface or in the upper surface layers. In 1982 and 1983 trials were set up to quantify the effect of grazing. The effect on yield and plant structure was measured by comparing ungrazed (exclosures) and grazed plots. Grazing by geese significantly reduced the grain yield (7-20%), but the reduction was not proportional to goose usage. The maximum reduction in sprout density was observed in 1982 in an area with heavy goose usage; sprout density was reduced by 72%, but the subsequent yield in the same area was only reduced by 8%. Plants on grazed plots compensated for the reduced sprout density by having more tillers with ears and grains of higher weight. The effect of grazing on stubble, seed grass, and winter cereals on Filsø is discussed.     

Age bias in the bag of pink-footed geese <Emphasis Type="Italic">Anser brachyrhynchus</Emphasis>: influence of flocking behaviour on vulnerability

In pink-footed goose (Anser brachyrhynchus) wintering in Denmark, The Netherlands and Belgium, the proportion of juveniles in the hunting bag is consistently higher than that observed in the autumn population. Such juvenile bias in the bag is usually ascribed to young geese lacking experience with hunting or disruption of juveniles from families. An alternative explanation may be that flocking behaviour of families make juveniles more vulnerable. Observations of morning flights of pink-footed geese to the feeding grounds from two of the major autumn-staging areas showed that geese were distributed in many small flocks (median flock size = 9). This was not significantly different from the flock size distribution shot at by hunters (median = 8), suggesting that hunters targeted goose flock size in proportion to the general probability of encounter. The rate at which hunters downed geese was independent of flock size. The ratio between juveniles and adults in flocks decreased with flock size and flocks of <60 individuals primarily comprised family groups. The likelihood of being shot at was 2.4 times higher for juveniles and 3.4 times higher for older birds in small flocks (<10 individuals) compared to larger flocks. The observations suggest that both juveniles as well as successful adult breeding birds were more vulnerable than non-breeding/failed breeding birds as a result of flocking behaviour.     

First de novo whole genome sequencing and assembly of the pink-footed goose

Annotated genomes can provide new perspectives on the biology of species. We present the first de novo whole genome sequencing for the pink-footed goose. In order to obtain a high-quality de novo assembly the strategy used was to combine one short insert paired-end library with two mate-pair libraries. The pink-footed goose genome was assembled de novo using three different assemblers and an assembly evaluation was subsequently performed in order to choose the best assembler. For our data, ALLPATHS-LG performed the best, since the assembly produced covers most of the genome, while introducing the fewest errors. A total of 26,134 genes were annotated, with bird species accounting for virtually all BLAST hits. We also estimated the substitution rate in the pink-footed goose, which can be of use in future demographic studies, by using a comparative approach with the genome of the chicken, the mallard and the swan goose. A substitution rate of 1.38 × 10^? 7 per nucleotide per generation was obtained when comparing the genomes of the two closely-related goose species (the pink-footed and the swan goose). Altogether, we provide a valuable tool for future genomic studies aiming at particular genes and regions of the pink-footed goose genome as well as other bird species.     

Prediction of the distribution of Arctic-nesting pink-footed geese under a warmer climate scenario

Global climate change is expected to shift species ranges polewards, with a risk of range contractions and population declines of especially high-Arctic species. We built species distribution models for Svalbard-nesting pink-footed geese to relate their occurrence to environmental and climatic variables, and used the models to predict their distribution under a warmer climate scenario. The most parsimonious model included mean May temperature, the number of frost-free months and the proportion of moist and wet moss-dominated vegetation in the area. The two climate variables are indicators for whether geese can physiologically fulfil the breeding cycle or not and the moss vegetation is an indicator of suitable feeding conditions. Projections of the distribution to warmer climate scenarios propose a large north- and eastward expansion of the potential breeding range on Svalbard even at modest temperature increases (1 and 2 °C increase in summer temperature, respectively). Contrary to recent suggestions regarding future distributions of Arctic wildlife, we predict that warming may lead to a further growth in population size of, at least some, Arctic breeding geese.