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1.
Descloux E Mangeas M Menkes CE Lengaigne M Leroy A Tehei T Guillaumot L Teurlai M Gourinat AC Benzler J Pfannstiel A Grangeon JP Degallier N De Lamballerie X 《PLoS neglected tropical diseases》2012,6(2):e1470
Background
Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between human-hosts, mosquito-vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. The objectives of this study were to analyze and model the relationships between climate, Aedes aegypti vectors and dengue outbreaks in Noumea (New Caledonia), and to provide an early warning system.Methodology/Principal Findings
Epidemiological and meteorological data were analyzed from 1971 to 2010 in Noumea. Entomological surveillance indices were available from March 2000 to December 2009. During epidemic years, the distribution of dengue cases was highly seasonal. The epidemic peak (March–April) lagged the warmest temperature by 1–2 months and was in phase with maximum precipitations, relative humidity and entomological indices. Significant inter-annual correlations were observed between the risk of outbreak and summertime temperature, precipitations or relative humidity but not ENSO. Climate-based multivariate non-linear models were developed to estimate the yearly risk of dengue outbreak in Noumea. The best explicative meteorological variables were the number of days with maximal temperature exceeding 32°C during January–February–March and the number of days with maximal relative humidity exceeding 95% during January. The best predictive variables were the maximal temperature in December and maximal relative humidity during October–November–December of the previous year. For a probability of dengue outbreak above 65% in leave-one-out cross validation, the explicative model predicted 94% of the epidemic years and 79% of the non epidemic years, and the predictive model 79% and 65%, respectively.Conclusions/Significance
The epidemic dynamics of dengue in Noumea were essentially driven by climate during the last forty years. Specific conditions based on maximal temperature and relative humidity thresholds were determinant in outbreaks occurrence. Their persistence was also crucial. An operational model that will enable health authorities to anticipate the outbreak risk was successfully developed. Similar models may be developed to improve dengue management in other countries. 相似文献2.
3.
Patricia L. Schirmer Cynthia A. Lucero-Obusan Stephen R. Benoit Luis M. Santiago Danielle Stanek Achintya Dey Mirsonia Martinez Gina Oda Mark Holodniy 《PLoS neglected tropical diseases》2013,7(3)
Background
Although dengue is endemic in Puerto Rico (PR), 2007 and 2010 were recognized as epidemic years. In the continental United States (US), outside of the Texas-Mexico border, there had not been a dengue outbreak since 1946 until dengue re-emerged in Key West, Florida (FL), in 2009–2010. The objective of this study was to use electronic and manual surveillance systems to identify dengue cases in Veterans Affairs (VA) healthcare facilities and then to clinically compare dengue cases in Veterans presenting for care in PR and in FL.Methodology
Outpatient encounters from 1/2007–12/2010 and inpatient admissions (only available from 10/2009–12/2010) with dengue diagnostic codes at all VA facilities were identified using VA''s Electronic Surveillance System for Early Notification of Community-based Epidemics (ESSENCE). Additional case sources included VA data from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention BioSense and VA infection preventionists. Case reviews were performed. Categorical data was compared using Mantel-Haenszel or Fisher Exact tests and continuous variables using t-tests. Dengue case residence was mapped.Findings
Two hundred eighty-eight and 21 PR and FL dengue cases respectively were identified. Of 21 FL cases, 12 were exposed in Key West and 9 were imported. During epidemic years, FL cases had significantly increased dengue testing and intensive care admissions, but lower hospitalization rates and headache or eye pain symptoms compared to PR cases. There were no significant differences in clinical symptoms, laboratory abnormalities or outcomes between epidemic and non-epidemic year cases in FL and PR. Confirmed/probable cases were significantly more likely to be hospitalized and have thrombocytopenia or leukopenia compared to suspected cases.Conclusions
Dengue re-introduction in the continental US warrants increased dengue surveillance and education in VA. Throughout VA, under-testing of suspected cases highlights the need to emphasize use of diagnostic testing to better understand the magnitude of dengue among Veterans. 相似文献4.
Luis R. Carrasco Yee Sin Leo Alex R. Cook Vernon J. Lee Tun L. Thein Chi Jong Go David C. Lye 《PLoS neglected tropical diseases》2014,8(7)
Background
Dengue causes 50 million infections per year, posing a large disease and economic burden in tropical and subtropical regions. Only a proportion of dengue cases require hospitalization, and predictive tools to triage dengue patients at greater risk of complications may optimize usage of limited healthcare resources. For severe dengue (SD), proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO) 2009 dengue guidelines, predictive tools are lacking.Methods
We undertook a retrospective study of adult dengue patients in Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore, from 2006 to 2008. Demographic, clinical and laboratory variables at presentation from dengue polymerase chain reaction-positive and serology-positive patients were used to predict the development of SD after hospitalization using generalized linear models (GLMs).Principal findings
Predictive tools compatible with well-resourced and resource-limited settings – not requiring laboratory measurements – performed acceptably with optimism-corrected specificities of 29% and 27% respectively for 90% sensitivity. Higher risk of severe dengue (SD) was associated with female gender, lower than normal hematocrit level, abdominal distension, vomiting and fever on admission. Lower risk of SD was associated with more years of age (in a cohort with an interquartile range of 27–47 years of age), leucopenia and fever duration on admission. Among the warning signs proposed by WHO 2009, we found support for abdominal pain or tenderness and vomiting as predictors of combined forms of SD.Conclusions
The application of these predictive tools in the clinical setting may reduce unnecessary admissions by 19% allowing the allocation of scarce public health resources to patients according to the severity of outcomes. 相似文献5.
Yunzhou Fan Mei Yang Hongbo Jiang Ying Wang Wenwen Yang Zhixia Zhang Weirong Yan Vinod K. Diwan Biao Xu Hengjin Dong Lars Palm Li Liu Shaofa Nie 《PloS one》2014,9(9)
Background
School absenteeism is a common data source in syndromic surveillance, which allows for the detection of outbreaks at an early stage. Previous studies focused on its correlation with other data sources. In this study, we evaluated the effectiveness of control measures based on early warning signals from school absenteeism surveillance in rural Chinese schools.Methods
A school absenteeism surveillance system was established in all 17 primary schools in 3 adjacent towns in the Chinese region of Hubei. Three outbreaks (varicella, mumps, and influenza-like illness) were detected and controlled successfully from April 1, 2012, to January 15, 2014. An impulse susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model was used to fit the epidemics of these three outbreaks. Moreover, it simulated the potential epidemics under interventions resulting from traditional surveillance signals. The effectiveness of the absenteeism-based control measures was evaluated by comparing the simulated datasets.Results
The school absenteeism system generated 52 signals. Three outbreaks were verified through epidemiological investigation. Compared to traditional surveillance, the school absenteeism system generated simultaneous signals for the varicella outbreak, but 3 days in advance for the mumps outbreak and 2–4 days in advance for the influenza-like illness outbreak. The estimated excess protection rates of control measures based on early signals were 0.0%, 19.0–44.1%, and 29.0–37.0% for the three outbreaks, respectively.Conclusions
Although not all outbreak control measures can benefit from early signals through school absenteeism surveillance, the effectiveness of early signal-based interventions is obvious. School absenteeism surveillance plays an important role in reducing outbreak spread. 相似文献6.
Khoa T. D. Thai Bernard Cazelles Nam Van Nguyen Long Thi Vo Maciej F. Boni Jeremy Farrar Cameron P. Simmons H. Rogier van Doorn Peter J. de Vries 《PLoS neglected tropical diseases》2010,4(7)
Background
Dengue is a major global public health problem with increasing incidence and geographic spread. The epidemiology is complex with long inter-epidemic intervals and endemic with seasonal fluctuations. This study was initiated to investigate dengue transmission dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam.Methodology
Wavelet analyses were performed on time series of monthly notified dengue cases from January 1994 to June 2009 (i) to detect and quantify dengue periodicity, (ii) to describe synchrony patterns in both time and space, (iii) to investigate the spatio-temporal waves and (iv) to associate the relationship between dengue incidence and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam.Principal Findings
We demonstrate a continuous annual mode of oscillation and a multi-annual cycle of around 2–3-years was solely observed from 1996–2001. Synchrony in time and between districts was detected for both the annual and 2–3-year cycle. Phase differences used to describe the spatio-temporal patterns suggested that the seasonal wave of infection was either synchronous among all districts or moving away from Phan Thiet district. The 2–3-year periodic wave was moving towards, rather than away from Phan Thiet district. A strong non-stationary association between ENSO indices and climate variables with dengue incidence in the 2–3-year periodic band was found.Conclusions
A multi-annual mode of oscillation was observed and these 2–3-year waves of infection probably started outside Binh Thuan province. Associations with climatic variables were observed with dengue incidence. Here, we have provided insight in dengue population transmission dynamics over the past 14.5 years. Further studies on an extensive time series dataset are needed to test the hypothesis that epidemics emanate from larger cities in southern Vietnam. 相似文献7.
Chuin-Shee Shang Chi-Tai Fang Chung-Ming Liu Tzai-Hung Wen Kun-Hsien Tsai Chwan-Chuen King 《PLoS neglected tropical diseases》2010,4(8)
Background
Travelers who acquire dengue infection are often routes for virus transmission to other regions. Nevertheless, the interplay between infected travelers, climate, vectors, and indigenous dengue incidence remains unclear. The role of foreign-origin cases on local dengue epidemics thus has been largely neglected by research. This study investigated the effect of both imported dengue and local meteorological factors on the occurrence of indigenous dengue in Taiwan.Methods and Principal Findings
Using logistic and Poisson regression models, we analyzed bi-weekly, laboratory-confirmed dengue cases at their onset dates of illness from 1998 to 2007 to identify correlations between indigenous dengue and imported dengue cases (in the context of local meteorological factors) across different time lags. Our results revealed that the occurrence of indigenous dengue was significantly correlated with temporally-lagged cases of imported dengue (2–14 weeks), higher temperatures (6–14 weeks), and lower relative humidity (6–20 weeks). In addition, imported and indigenous dengue cases had a significant quantitative relationship in the onset of local epidemics. However, this relationship became less significant once indigenous epidemics progressed past the initial stage.Conclusions
These findings imply that imported dengue cases are able to initiate indigenous epidemics when appropriate weather conditions are present. Early detection and case management of imported cases through rapid diagnosis may avert large-scale epidemics of dengue/dengue hemorrhagic fever. The deployment of an early-warning surveillance system, with the capacity to integrate meteorological data, will be an invaluable tool for successful prevention and control of dengue, particularly in non-endemic countries. 相似文献8.
9.
Jan C. Semenza Bertrand Sudre Jennifer Miniota Massimiliano Rossi Wei Hu David Kossowsky Jonathan E. Suk Wim Van Bortel Kamran Khan 《PLoS neglected tropical diseases》2014,8(12)
Background
The worldwide distribution of dengue is expanding, in part due to globalized traffic and trade. Aedes albopictus is a competent vector for dengue viruses (DENV) and is now established in numerous regions of Europe. Viremic travellers arriving in Europe from dengue-affected areas of the world can become catalysts of local outbreaks in Europe. Local dengue transmission in Europe is extremely rare, and the last outbreak occurred in 1927–28 in Greece. However, autochthonous transmission was reported from France in September 2010, and from Croatia between August and October 2010.Methodology
We compiled data on areas affected by dengue in 2010 from web resources and surveillance reports, and collected national dengue importation data. We developed a hierarchical regression model to quantify the relationship between the number of reported dengue cases imported into Europe and the volume of airline travellers arriving from dengue-affected areas internationally.Principal Findings
In 2010, over 5.8 million airline travellers entered Europe from dengue-affected areas worldwide, of which 703,396 arrived at 36 airports situated in areas where Ae. albopictus has been recorded. The adjusted incidence rate ratio for imported dengue into European countries was 1.09 (95% CI: 1.01–1.17) for every increase of 10,000 travellers; in August, September, and October the rate ratios were 1.70 (95%CI: 1.23–2.35), 1.46 (95%CI: 1.02–2.10), and 1.35 (95%CI: 1.01–1.81), respectively. Two Italian cities where the vector is present received over 50% of all travellers from dengue-affected areas, yet with the continuing vector expansion more cities will be implicated in the future. In fact, 38% more travellers arrived in 2013 into those parts of Europe where Ae. albopictus has recently been introduced, compared to 2010.Conclusions
The highest risk of dengue importation in 2010 was restricted to three months and can be ranked according to arriving traveller volume from dengue-affected areas into cities where the vector is present. The presence of the vector is a necessary, but not sufficient, prerequisite for DENV onward transmission, which depends on a number of additional factors. However, our empirical model can provide spatio-temporal elements to public health interventions. 相似文献10.
Ru-ning Guo Jin-yan Lin Lin-hui Li Chang-wen Ke Jian-feng He Hao-jie Zhong Hui-qiong Zhou Zhi-qiang Peng Fen Yang Wen-jia Liang 《PloS one》2014,9(1)
Objectives
Frequent outbreaks of dengue are considered to be associated with an increased risk for endemicity of the disease. The occurrence of a large number of indigenous dengue cases in consecutive years indicates the possibility of a changing dengue epidemic pattern in Guangdong, China.Methods
To have a clear understanding of the current dengue epidemic, a retrospective study of epidemiological profile, serological response, and virological features of dengue infections from 2005–2011 was conducted. Case data were collected from the National Notifiable Infectious Diseases Reporting Network. Serum samples were collected and prepared for serological verification and etiological confirmation. Incidence, temporal and spatial distribution, and the clinical manifestation of dengue infections were analyzed. Pearson''s Chi-Square test was used to compare incidences between different age groups. A seroprevalence survey was implemented in local healthy inhabitants to obtain the overall positive rate for the specific immunoglobulin (Ig) G antibody against dengue virus (DENV).Results
The overall annual incidence rate was 1.87/100000. A significant difference was found in age-specific incidence (Pearson''s Chi-Square value 498.008, P<0.001). Children under 5 years of age had the lowest incidence of 0.28/100000. The vast majority of cases presented with a mild manifestation typical to dengue fever. The overall seroprevalence of dengue IgG antibody in local populations was 2.43% (range 0.28%–5.42%). DENV-1 was the predominant serotype in circulation through the years, while all 4 serotypes were identified in indigenous patients from different outbreak localities since 2009.Conclusions
A gradual change in the epidemic pattern of dengue infection has been observed in recent years in Guangdong. With the endemic nature of dengue infections, the transition from a monotypic to a multitypic circulation of dengue virus in the last several years will have an important bearing on the prevention and control of dengue in the province and in the neighboring districts. 相似文献11.
Emily K. Rowe Yee-Sin Leo Joshua G. X. Wong Tun-Linn Thein Victor C. Gan Linda K. Lee David C. Lye 《PLoS neglected tropical diseases》2014,8(4)
Background/methods
To better understand dengue fever in the elderly, we compared clinical features, World Health Organization (WHO) dengue classification and outcomes between adult (<60) and elderly (≥60) dengue patients. We explored the impact of co-morbidity and hospital-acquired infection (HAI) on clinical outcomes in the elderly. All patients managed at the Communicable Disease Centre, Singapore, between 2005 and 2008 with positive dengue polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or who fulfilled WHO 1997 or 2009 probable dengue criteria with positive dengue IgM were included.Results
Of the 6989 cases, 295 (4.4%) were elderly. PCR was positive in 29%. The elderly suffered more severe disease with more dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) (29.2% vs. 21.4%) and severe dengue (SD) (20.3% vs. 14.6%) (p<0.05). Classic dengue symptoms were more common in the adult group. The elderly were less likely to fulfill WHO 1997 (93.6% vs. 96.4%) (p = 0.014), but not WHO 2009 probable dengue (75.3% vs. 71.5%). Time to dengue diagnosis was similar. There was no significant difference in the frequency of warning signs between the two groups, but the elderly were more likely to have hepatomegaly (p = 0.006) and malaise/lethargy (p = 0.033) while the adults had significantly more mucosal bleeding (p<0.001). Intensive care admission occurred in 15 and death in three, with no age difference. Notably, the elderly stayed in hospital longer (median 5 vs. 4 days), and suffered more pneumonia (3.8% vs. 0.7%) and urinary infection (1.9% vs. 0.3%) (p = 0.003). Predictors of excess length of stay were age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.01, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.37–2.88), critical illness (aOR 5.13, 95%CI 2.59–9.75), HAI (aOR 12.06, 95%CI 7.39–19.9), Charlson score (aOR 6.9, 95%CI 2.02–22.56) and severe dengue (DHF/dengue shock syndrome/SD) (aOR 2.24, 95%CI 1.83–2.74).Conclusion
Elderly dengue patients present atypically and are at higher risk of DHF, SD and HAI. Aside from dengue severity, age, co-morbidity and HAI were associated with longer hospital stay. 相似文献12.
Hai-Bo Wang Gang Fang Wen-Zhou Yu Fei Du Chun-Xiang Fan Qing-Lian Liu Li-Xin Hao Yu Liu Jing-Shan Zheng Zhi-Ying Qin Wei Xia Shi-Yue Zhang Zun-Dong Yin Qiong Jing Yan-Xia Zhang Rong-Na Huang Ru-Pei Yang Wen-Bin Tong Qi Qi Xu-Jing Guan Yu-Lin Jing Qian-Li Ma Jin Wang Xiao-Zhen Ma Na Chen Hong-Ru Zheng Yin-Qiao Li Chao Ma Qi-Ru Su Kathleen H. Reilly Hui-Ming Luo Xian-Ping Wu Ning Wen Wei-Zhong Yang 《PloS one》2014,9(12)
Background
During August 2011–February 2012, an outbreak of type Π circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPVs) occurred in Sichuan Province, China.Methods
A field investigation of the outbreak was conducted to characterize outbreak isolates and to guide emergency response. Sequence analysis of poliovirus capsid protein VP1 was performed to determine the viral propagation, and a coverage survey was carried out for risk assessment.Results
One clinical compatible polio case and three VDPV cases were determined in Ngawa County, Ngawa Tibetan and Qiang Autonomous Prefecture, Sichuan Province. Case patients were unimmunized children, 0.8–1 years old. Genetic sequencing showed that the isolates diverged from the VP1 region of the type Π Sabin strain by 5–12 nucleotides (nt) and shared the same 5 nt VP1 substitutions, which indicate single lineage of cVDPVs. Of the 7 acute flaccid paralysis cases (all>6 months) reported in Ngawa Prefecture in 2011, 4 (57.1%) cases (including 2 polio cases) did not receive oral attenuated poliovirus vaccine. Supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) were conducted in February–May, 2012, and the strain has not been isolated since.Conclusion
High coverage of routine immunization should be maintained among children until WPV transmission is globally eradicated. Risk assessments should be conducted regularly to pinpoint high risk areas or subpopulations, with SIAs developed if necessary. 相似文献13.
Midori Kato-Maeda Christine Ho Ben Passarelli Niaz Banaei Jennifer Grinsdale Laura Flores Jillian Anderson Megan Murray Graham Rose L. Masae Kawamura Nader Pourmand Muhammad A. Tariq Sebastien Gagneux Philip C. Hopewell 《PloS one》2013,8(3)
Rationale
Current tools available to study the molecular epidemiology of tuberculosis do not provide information about the directionality and sequence of transmission for tuberculosis cases occurring over a short period of time, such as during an outbreak. Recently, whole genome sequencing has been used to study molecular epidemiology of Mycobacterium tuberculosis over short time periods.Objective
To describe the microevolution of M. tuberculosis during an outbreak caused by one drug-susceptible strain.Method and Measurements
We included 9 patients with tuberculosis diagnosed during a period of 22 months, from a population-based study of the molecular epidemiology in San Francisco. Whole genome sequencing was performed using Illumina’s sequencing by synthesis technology. A custom program written in Python was used to determine single nucleotide polymorphisms which were confirmed by PCR product Sanger sequencing.Main results
We obtained an average of 95.7% (94.1–96.9%) coverage for each isolate and an average fold read depth of 73 (1 to 250). We found 7 single nucleotide polymorphisms among the 9 isolates. The single nucleotide polymorphisms data confirmed all except one known epidemiological link. The outbreak strain resulted in 5 bacterial variants originating from the index case A1 with 0–2 mutations per transmission event that resulted in a secondary case.Conclusions
Whole genome sequencing analysis from a recent outbreak of tuberculosis enabled us to identify microevolutionary events observable during transmission, to determine 0–2 single nucleotide polymorphisms per transmission event that resulted in a secondary case, and to identify new epidemiologic links in the chain of transmission. 相似文献14.
Andréa N. M. Rangel da Silva Eduardo J. M. Nascimento Marli Tenório Cordeiro Laura H. V. G. Gil Frederico G. C. Abath Silvia M. L. Montenegro Ernesto T. A. Marques Jr. 《PloS one》2009,4(10)
Background
Dengue virus infection is a growing global public health concern in tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Dengue vaccine development has been hampered by concerns that cross-reactive immunological memory elicited by a candidate vaccine could increase the risk of development of more severe clinical forms. One possible strategy to reduce risks associated with a dengue vaccine is the development of a vaccine composed of selected critical epitopes of each of the serotypes.Methodology/Principal Findings
Synthetic peptides were used to identify B-cell epitopes in the envelope (E) glycoprotein of dengue virus type 3 (DENV-3). Eleven linear, immunodominant epitopes distributed in five regions at amino acid (aa) positions: 51–65, 71–90, 131–170, 196–210 and 246–260 were identified by employing an enzyme- linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), using a pool of human sera from dengue type 3 infected individuals. Peptides 11 (aa51–65), 27 and 28 (aa131–150) also reacted with dengue 1 (DENV-1) and dengue 2 (DENV-2) patient sera as analyzed through the ROC curves generated for each peptide by ELISA and might have serotype specific diagnostic potential. Mice immunized against each one of the five immunogenic regions showed epitopes 51–65, 131–170, 196–210 and 246–260 elicited the highest antibody response and epitopes131–170, 196–210 and 246–260, elicited IFN-γ production and T CD4+ cell response, as evaluated by ELISA and ELISPOT assays respectively.Conclusions/Significance
Our study identified several useful immunodominant IgG-specific epitopes on the envelope of DENV-3. They are important tools for understanding the mechanisms involved in antibody dependent enhancement and immunity. If proven protective and safe, in conjunction with others well-documented epitopes, they might be included into a candidate epitope-based vaccine. 相似文献15.
Tomashek KM Gregory CJ Rivera Sánchez A Bartek MA Garcia Rivera EJ Hunsperger E Muñoz-Jordán JL Sun W 《PLoS neglected tropical diseases》2012,6(4):e1614
Background
The incidence and severity of dengue in Latin America has increased substantially in recent decades and data from Puerto Rico suggests an increase in severe cases. Successful clinical management of severe dengue requires early recognition and supportive care.Methods
Fatal cases were identified among suspected dengue cases reported to two disease surveillance systems and from death certificates. To be included, fatal cases had to have specimen submitted for dengue diagnostic testing including nucleic acid amplification for dengue virus (DENV) in serum or tissue, immunohistochemical testing of tissue, and immunoassay detection of anti-DENV IgM from serum. Medical records from laboratory-positive dengue fatal case-patients were reviewed to identify possible determinants for death.Results
Among 10,576 reported dengue cases, 40 suspect fatal cases were identified, of which 11 were laboratory-positive, 14 were laboratory-negative, and 15 laboratory-indeterminate. The median age of laboratory-positive case-patients was 26 years (range 5 months to 78 years), including five children aged <15 years; 7 sought medical care at least once prior to hospital admission, 9 were admitted to hospital and 2 died upon arrival. The nine hospitalized case-patients stayed a mean of 15 hours (range: 3–48 hours) in the emergency department (ED) before inpatient admission. Five of the nine case-patients received intravenous methylprednisolone and four received non-isotonic saline while in shock. Eight case-patients died in the hospital; five had their terminal event on the inpatient ward and six died during a weekend. Dengue was listed on the death certificate in only 5 instances.Conclusions
During a dengue epidemic in an endemic area, none of the 11 laboratory-positive case-patients who died were managed according to current WHO Guidelines. Management issues identified in this case-series included failure to recognize warning signs for severe dengue and shock, prolonged ED stays, and infrequent patient monitoring. 相似文献16.
Lo?c Epelboin Charlotte Boullé Sihem Ouar-Epelboin Matthieu Hanf Philippe Dussart Félix Djossou Mathieu Nacher Bernard Carme 《PLoS neglected tropical diseases》2013,7(9)
Background
Dengue and malaria are two major public health concerns in tropical settings. Although the pathogeneses of these two arthropod-borne diseases differ, their clinical and biological presentations are unspecific. During dengue epidemics, several hundred patients with fever and diffuse pain are weekly admitted at the emergency room. It is difficult to discriminate them from patients presenting malaria attacks. Furthermore, it may be impossible to provide a parasitological microscopic examination for all patients. This study aimed to establish a diagnostic algorithm for communities where dengue fever and malaria occur at some frequency in adults.Methodology/Principal Findings
A sub-study using the control groups of a case-control study in French Guiana – originally designed to compare dengue and malaria co-infected cases to single infected cases – was performed between 2004 and 2010. In brief, 208 patients with malaria matched to 208 patients with dengue fever were compared in the present study. A predictive score of malaria versus dengue was established using .632 bootstrap procedures. Multivariate analysis showed that male gender, age, tachycardia, anemia, thrombocytopenia, and CRP>5 mg/l were independently associated with malaria. The predictive score using those variables had an AUC of 0.86 (95%CI: 0.82–0.89), and the CRP was the preponderant predictive factor. The sensitivity and specificity of CRP>5 mg/L to discriminate malaria from dengue were of 0.995 (95%CI: 0.991–1) and 0.35 (95%CI 0.32–0.39), respectively.Conclusions/Significance
The clinical and biological score performed relatively well for discriminating cases of dengue versus malaria. Moreover, using only the CRP level turned to be a useful biomarker to discriminate feverish patients at low risk of malaria in an area where both infections exist. It would avoid more than 33% of unnecessary parasitological examinations with a very low risk of missing a malaria attack. 相似文献17.
Huiying Liang Lei Luo Zhicong Yang Biao Di Zhijun Bai Peng He Qinlong Jing Xueli Zheng 《PloS one》2013,8(2)
Background
Endemic dengue virus type 3 (DENV-3) infections have not been reported in Canton, China, since 1980. In March 2009, DENV-3 was isolated for the second time, occurring about 30 years after the previous circulation. In August, 3 other cases emerged. One much larger outbreak occurred again in 2010. To address the origin and particularly to determine whether the outbreaks were caused by the same viral genotype, we investigated the epidemiological and molecular characteristics of the introduction, spread and genetic microevolution of DENV-3 involved.Methodology/Principal Findings
Three imported cases (index-1,2,3) separately traveled back from Vietnam, India and Tanzania, resulted in 1, 3 and 60 secondary autochthonous cases, respectively. In autochthonous cases, 64.6% positive in IgM anti-DENV and 18.6% in IgG from a total of 48 submitted serum samples, accompanied by 7 DENV-3 isolates. With 99.8%, 99.7%, and 100% envelope gene nucleotidic identity, 09/GZ/1081 from index-1 and endemic strain (09/GZ/1483) belonged to genotype V; 09/GZ/10616 from index-2 and endemic strains (09/GZ/11144 and 09/GZ/11194) belonged to genotype III Clade-A; and 10/GZ/4898 from index-3 and all four 2010 endemic DENV-3 strains belonged to genotype III Clade-B, respectively.Conclusions/Significance
Both epidemiological and phylogenetic analyses showed that the 2010 outbreak of dengue was not a reemergence of the 2009 strain. Introductions of different genotypes following more than one route were important contributory factors for the 2009–2010 dengue epidemics/outbreaks in Canton. These findings underscore the importance of early detection and case management of imported case in preventing large-scale dengue epidemics among indigenous peoples of Canton. 相似文献18.
Background
With approximately 2.5 billion people at risk, dengue is a major international public health concern. Dengue vaccines currently in development should help reduce the burden associated with this disease but the most efficient way of using future dengue vaccines remains to be defined. Mathematical models of transmission can provide insight into the expected impact of different vaccination strategies at a population level and contribute to this definition.Methods and Findings
We developed and analyzed an age-structured, host-vector and serotype-specific compartmental model, including seasonality. We first used this transmission model to identify the immunological interactions between serotypes that affect the risks and consequences of secondary infections (cross-protection, increased susceptibility, increased severity, and increased infectiousness) and reproduce the observed epidemiology of dengue. For populating this model, we used routine surveillance data from Southern Vietnam and the results of a prospective cohort study conducted in the same area. The model provided a good fit to the observed data for age, severity of cases, serotype distribution, and dynamics over time, using two scenarios of immunological interaction : short term cross-protection alone (6–17 months) or a combination of short term cross-protection with cross-enhancement (increased susceptibility, severity and infectiousness in the case of secondary infections). Finally, we explored the potential impact of vaccination for these two scenarios. Both highlighted that vaccination can substantially decrease dengue burden by reducing the magnitude and frequency of outbreaks.Conclusion
Our model suggests that seasonality and short term cross-protection are key factors for explaining dengue dynamics in Southern Vietnam. Vaccination was predicted to significantly reduce the disease burden, even in the situation where immunological cross-enhancement affects the risks and consequences of secondary infections. 相似文献19.
Background
Demographic features of dengue fever have changed tremendously in Pakistan over the past two decades. Small scale studies from all over the country have reported different aspects of individual outbreaks during this time. However, there is scarcity of data looking at the overall trend of dengue virus infection in the country. In this study, we examined annual trends, seasonality, and clinical features of dengue fever in the Pakistani population.Methods
Demographic information and dengue IgM status of all patients tested for dengue IgM antibody at Aga Khan University Hospital from January 2003 to December 2007 were analyzed to look for trends of IgM-positive cases in Pakistan. In addition, clinical and biochemical parameters were abstracted retrospectively from medical records of all patients hospitalized with IgM-proven dengue fever between January 2006 and December 2007. These patients were categorized into dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever according to the WHO severity grading scale.Results
Out of a total of 15040 patients (63.2% male and 36.8% female), 3952 (26.3%) tested positive for dengue IgM antibody. 209 IgM proven dengue patients were hospitalized during the study period. During 2003, IgM positive cases were seen only during the months of July-December. In contrast, such cases were detected throughout the year from the 2004–2007. The median age of IgM positive patients decreased every year from 32.0 years in 2003 to 24.0 years in 2007 (p<0.001). Among hospitalized patients, nausea was the most common presenting feature found in 124/209 (59.3%) patients. Children presented with a higher median body temperature than adults (p = 0.010). In addition, neutropenia was seen more commonly in children while raised serum ALT levels were seen more commonly in adults (both p = 0.006). While a low total white cell count was more common in patients with dengue fever as compared to Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (p = 0.020), neutropenia (p = 0.019), monocytosis (p = 0.001) and raised serum ALT level (p = 0.005) were observed more commonly in the latter group.Conclusions
Dengue virus is now endemic in Pakistan, circulating throughout the year with a peak incidence in the post monsoon period. Median age of dengue patients has decreased and younger patients may be more susceptible. Total and differential leukocyte counts may help identify patients at risk of hemorrhage. 相似文献20.
Willem G. van Panhuis Sangwon Hyun Kayleigh Blaney Ernesto T. A. Marques Jr Giovanini E. Coelho Jo?o Bosco Siqueira Jr Ryan Tibshirani Jarbas B. da Silva Jr Roni Rosenfeld 《PLoS neglected tropical diseases》2014,8(7)