Riverine fishers’ knowledge of extreme climatic events in the Brazilian Amazonia

Background

Climate change is altering climate patterns, mainly increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme events with potentially serious impacts on natural resources and the people that use them. Adapting to such impacts will require the integration of scientific and local (folk) knowledge, especially the first-hand experiences and perceptions of resource users such as fishers. In this study, we identify how commercial riverine fishers in the Amazon remember extreme climatic events (flood and drought) and how they face the consequences of extreme events on fish availability.

Methods

Data were collected from the main Manaus fishery harbor between June and October of 2013. Semi-structured questionnaires and a historical timeline technique were used to gather data from artisanal commercial fishers. Fishers’ knowledge of extreme climate events was assessed by their “cultural consensus” for identification of event years and perceived impacts. Fishers’ responses were also compared to hydrological data to test their similarity.

Results

There was a high level of cultural consensus among fishers about extreme events years. They were able to identify four consecutive unusual droughts, between 2009 and 2012. Elevated levels of fish mortality and decreases in the fishery were perceived as consequences of the drought events, as well as, a reduction in fish size, and disappearance of some species. Extreme flood events were associated with greater difficulties accessing fishing grounds.

Conclusions

Extreme climatic events (floods and droughts) were remembered, and the recent increase in their intensity and frequency was also perceived. Moreover, extreme climate event (mainly droughts) impacts on fishery resources were also observed. Such information is potentially valuable for educational programs to further improve adaptation of local Amazonian fishing communities to future climate change, e.g. increasing local ecological knowledge using learning material based on their perception.

     

The impact of climatic change on butterfly geography: does climatic change produce coincident trends in populations,distributions and ranges?

With climatic warming is the expectation of coincident changes in distributions and range limits driven by population changes. An outstanding question is whether such coincident changes (positive or negative) occur, especially in smaller regions in which management for change tends to be conducted. Using atlas and survey monitoring data (BMS) we studied population and distribution changes in 31 butterfly species in North West England over three recording periods (1940–1994, 1995–2001, 2001–2007). We found that since the first recording period many more species have shifted their centres of gravity significantly northwards and uphill than have increased in population abundance (density) and distribution cover. At the same time, far fewer species have effectively shifted southwards and downhill than have decreased in density and distribution cover. A significant association between change in distribution cover and density is divorced from the weaker association between shifts in altitude and northing; whereas many species are gaining northwards and at higher altitude, they are doing so from a failing base at lower altitude and at the core of their distributions. Usually losses at lower altitudes are ascribed to loss of biotopes. But, declines in some species, such as Lasiommata megera, are occurring at a much faster rate than physical changes to the landscape and in land uses. The findings of this study indicate that changes in populations, distributions and ranges are a great deal more complex than hitherto considered. Currently, the basis for such rapid changes is not being supported by detailed autecology on species.     

Does climatic warming increase the risk of frost damage in northern trees?

Abstract. The effect of climatic warming on the timing of bud burst and the subsequent risk of frost damage on trees in central Finland was assessed with the aid of a computer model, 73 years of temperature data and a climatic scenario corresponding to doubled level of atmospheric CO₂. In general, climatic warming hastened bud burst, due to ontogenetic development during warm spells in autumn, winter and spring. During the years with the warmest winters in the scenario conditions: (a) bud burst took place during mid-winter; and (2) depending on the year, the trees were subsequently exposed to temperatures between −27 and −10°C. This finding suggests that the risk of frost damage to trees will be increased if the predicted climatic warming occurs. Because of the assumptions used in the model, the results are not conclusive, but they do point out the importance of further experimental studies on genetic and environmental regulation of timing of bud burst in trees.     

Are climatic factors responsible for the process of oak decline in Poland?

Oak decline, a complex process leading to increased mortality of this species, has been observed in Europe for many years. Previous studies suggest that climate conditions, especially drought, may be one of the most important factors that trigger this phenomenon. The paper investigates the radial growth and wood anatomy features of pedunculate oak (Quercus robur) trees of various health status as well as their response to climate conditions. Wood samples including all annual increments were taken at two sites (western and central Poland, 15 trees each). Based on the crown defoliation level, three health groups (healthy, weakened and dead oaks) were distinguished. Cross-sections were prepared with sliding microtome and Cell P image analysis software was used for the measurements. Tree-ring width (TRW), earlywood vessels density (VDen) and non-weighted vessels diameter (VD) were determined and correlated with mean monthly values of temperature, precipitation, vapour pressure, and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Radial increment and anatomical parameters were significantly higher for the healthy oaks than for the weakened and the dead trees. TRW showed smaller dependence on climate than analysed anatomical attributes. No obvious pattern of relationship was found between oak radial growth and climate regarding tree health status. Our results revealed that the drought has a weak impact on the process of oak decline on investigated sites in Poland.     

Can observation of climatic variables be used to predict the flight dispersal rates of Prostephanus truncatus?

Abstract 1 Attack by Prostephanus truncatus (Horn) (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae) on the maize and cassava stored by small‐holder farmers in Africa is sporadic, varying considerably within and between years. The risk that food in store will become infested is related to the number of beetles dispersing by flight. A means of predicting years with high dispersal rates is needed to warn farmers when to be vigilant. 2 The relationship between climatic variables and pheromone trap catches was observed in a forest‐savannah transition zone in Ghana. These observations were used to devise a model using a mix of biological and empirical rules that operate on temperature and humidity data. The predicted and actual trap catch deviated by only +5% to ?1% in years when there were high dispersal rates. 3 The first part of the model estimates the numbers of beetles with potential for dispersal. The second part predicts the proportion likely to disperse. This is based on the apparent effect that those P. truncatus developing under low temperature conditions (about 24 °C) have a lowered propensity for flight, a response previously observed in a related species. 4 The model was validated using climate data and trap catches from a woodland–savannah zone and a short grass steppe zone. With minor adjustment, the model worked well for these two habitats.     

Effect of climatic conditions on natural mycoflora and fumonisins in freshly harvested corn of the State of Paraná, Brazil

Natural mycoflora associated with fumonisins were analyzed in 150 samples of freshly harvested corn from Central-Southern, Central-Western and Northern regions of the State of Paraná, Brazil and correlated to climatic conditions. The corn samples were frequently contaminated with Fusarium sp.(98.7 to 100%) and Penicillium sp. (93 to 100%), when compared to Aspergillus sp. (not detected to 27.7%). The highest contamination with potentially mycotoxigenic fungi occurred in corn harvested in the Central-Western region, where total mould and yeast counts ranged from 5.5 × 10³ to 5.2 × 10⁶ CFU/g, with 98.7% contaminated byFusarium sp. and 93% by Penicillium sp. In this region F. moniliforme (F. verticillioides) was the predominant Fusariumsp., and was isolated in 85.9% of the samples. Aspergillus sp. was isolated from 27.7% samples. FB₁ was detected in 100% of the samples (mean of 2.39 g/g) and FB₂ in 97.7% (mean of 1.09 g/g). Fumonisins were also detected in all samples from Northern region, with mean of 4.56 g/g (FB₁) and 2.20 g/g (FB₂).Considering 1.0 g/g as the threshold, 72% of the corn samples from the Central-West and 92% from the North were contaminated with concentrations above this value, in contrast to a 18.5% contamination rate from Central-Southern samples. Between corn planting to harvesting season, the average maximum temperature and relative humidity were 26 °C and 77.1%(Central-Southern), 27 °C and 69% (Northern)and 29.9 °C and 89.1% (Central-Western).Therefore, the higher fumonisins contamination of corn from Northern region when compared to the Central-South were due to the differences in rainfall levels (92.8 mm in Central-Southern, 202 mm in Northern) during the month preceding harvest.This revised version was published online in October 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Several million years of stability among insect species because of,or in spite of,Ice Age climatic instability?

There is a curious paradox in the evolutionary legacy of Ice Ages. Studies of modern species suggest that they are currently evolving in response to changing environments. If extrapolated into the context of Quaternary Ice Ages, this evidence would suggest that the frequent climatic changes should have stimulated the evolutionary process and thus increased the rates of change within species and the number of speciation events. Extinction rates would, similarly, be high. Quaternary insect studies call into question these interpretations. They indicate that insect species show a remarkable degree of stability throughout the Ice Age climatic oscillations. The paradox arises from the apparent contradiction between abundant evidence of incipient speciation in insect populations at the present day and the evidence that, in the geological past, this apparently did not lead to sustained evolution.     

Alien plant species distribution in the European Alps: influence of species’ climatic requirements

The paper provides the first estimate of the role of abiotic and anthropogenic variables driving both alien plant species richness and composition covering the whole region of the European Alps. To establish and spread in a new area, alien plants must be able to tolerate the prevailing climatic conditions. We therefore tested the hypothesis that climatic requirements modified by bioclimatic origin and elevational distribution influence the distribution of alien plants in the Alps. Despite most alien plant species showing a relatively restricted distribution in the Alps, some regions, however, were already more strongly invaded. Most of these species were adapted to warmer conditions, probably constrained by climatic factors. Environmental heterogeneity was the most important predictor of alien plant species richness, followed by anthropogenic disturbance. Due to the political/artificial delineation of the administrative districts in the Alps (i.e., ignoring ecological conditions) we did not find a direct influence of climatic constraints on alien distribution. Anyway, northern Holarctic alien species showed a broader climatic tolerance and the capability to grow across a wide environmental range. Our results also reveal a strong influence of human pressure on warmer tropical species, despite their low adaptability to anthropogenic habitats. To this aim, managers would profit from early warnings to prevent future invasions. Considering bioclimatic origin, our study can aid in identifying potentially invasive species in a more regional setting.     

Zelkova carpinifolia (Pallas) K. Koch in Holocene sediments of Georgia—an indicator of climatic optima

Zelkova pollen has been found in Oligocene- to Pleistocene-aged deposits from many parts of Europe and northern Africa, but became extinct in mainland Europe prior to the last glacial maximum. This paper presents some observations on the ecology, pollen productivity and Holocene history of Zelkova carpinifolia to further understanding of Quaternary climatic trends. Georgia is one of the last refuges of this Tertiary relict tree.Based on palynological data from 20 Holocene sediment profiles in Georgia, we have established that Zelkova pollen is almost always accompanied by elevated proportions of thermophilous taxa (Castanea sativa, Quercus hartwissiana, Quercus iberica, and Pterocarya pterocarpa) in pollen spectra. These spectra are associated with phases of climatic amelioration and humidification. Zelkova carpinifolia is characterised by low pollen productivity and is underrepresented in pollen spectra by four-to-five orders of magnitude. Because of this, even single grains of Zelkova pollen may play a significant role in pollen-based climatic reconstructions.Six major climatic optima occurred in Georgia through the course of the Holocene, the longest and warmest of which occurred in the mid-Holocene and reached its maximum between 6000 and 5500 Cal. yr BP. During that period, Zelkova and Castanea forests were widespread. In Western Georgia, the upper tree line was elevated by as much as 300 m above its present-day level. In semiarid Eastern Georgia, the tree line may have been 500–600 m higher. Other climatic optima are seen in late-Holocene pollen spectra dating to 3800–2500 Cal. yr BP and 1350–800 Cal. yr BP.     

The weak effects of climatic change on Plantago pollen concentration: 17 years of monitoring in Northwestern Spain

Plantago L. species are very common in nitrified areas such as roadsides and their pollen is a major cause of pollinosis in temperate regions. In this study, we sampled airborne pollen grains in the city of León (NW, Spain) from January 1995 to December 2011, by using a Burkard® 7-day-recording trap. The percentage of Plantago pollen compared to the total pollen count ranged from 11 % (1997) to 3 % (2006) in the period under study. Peak pollen concentrations were recorded in May and June. Our 17-year analysis failed to disclose significant changes in the seasonal trend of plantain pollen concentration. In addition, there were no important changes in the start dates of pollen release and the meteorological parameters analyzed did not show significant variations in their usual trends. We analyzed the influence of several meteorological parameters on Plantago pollen concentration to explain the differences in pollen concentration trends during the study. Our results show that temperature, sun hours, evaporation, and relative humidity are the meteorological parameters best correlated to the behavior of Plantago pollen grains. In general, the years with low pollen concentrations correspond to the years with less precipitation or higher temperatures. We calculated the approximate Plantago flowering dates using the cumulative sum of daily maximum temperatures and compared them with the real bloom dates. The differences obtained were 4 days in 2009, 3 days in 2010, and 1 day in 2011 considering the complete period of pollination.     

Does seasonal fine‐tuning of climatic variables improve the performance of bioclimatic envelope models for migratory birds?

We examined the influence of 'seasonal fine-tuning' of climatic variables on the performance of bioclimatic envelope models of migrating birds. Using climate data and national bird atlas data from a 10 × 10 km uniform grid system in Finland, we tested whether the replacement of one 'baseline' set of variables including summer (June–August) temperature and precipitation variables with climate variables tailored ('fine-tuned') for each species individually improved the bird-climate models. The fine-tuning was conducted on the basis of time of arrival and early breeding of the species. Two generalized additive models (GAMs) were constructed for each of the 63 bird species studied, employing (1) the baseline climate variables and (2) the fine-tuned climate variables. Model performance was measured as explanatory power (deviance change) and predictive power (area under the curve; AUC) statistics derived from cross-validation. Fine-tuned climate variables provided, in many cases, statistically significantly improved model performance compared to using the same baseline set of variables for all the species. Model improvements mainly concerned bird species arriving and starting their breeding in May–June. We conclude that the use of the fine-tuned climate variables tailored for each species individually on the basis of their arrival and critical breeding periods can provide important benefits for bioclimatic modelling.     

Can climate matching predict the current and future climatic suitability of the UK for the establishment of non-native birds?

Capsule: Current UK distributions of non-native birds poorly match areas identified as being climatically suitable.

Aims: Non-native species are spreading at unprecedented rates and though invasions are expected to increase under climate change, evidence for this is mixed. We assess climatic suitability throughout the UK based on the apparent match to the climate in species’ native ranges and investigate potential climatic limitation within the non-native range.

Methods: Climate was characterized within polygons representing the native ranges of 167 potentially invasive species. Parts of the UK with current and future climate similar to that in the native range were deemed climatically suitable. The incidence of recent observations inside and outside suitable areas was used to test hypotheses about climatic limitation of non-native ranges.

Results: Climate matching suggests that 69 of 167 non-native bird species could currently find climatically suitable areas for establishment in the UK. Future climate change would see this number increase by 14% by 2080. However, observed occurrences of non-native species in the UK were not significantly correlated to climatic suitability. Only 44 of the 69 species with suitable climate in the UK were present. Moreover, 85% of species observed in the UK had some UK occurrences in climatically unsuitable areas and for 57 species their entire UK range was in climatically unsuitable areas. Similar results were apparent for the subset of 12 species with established UK populations.

Conclusions: Climate matching provides a relatively poor indication of the extent of current and future suitable areas because species can adapt to new climates or other factors constrain the native range and many climatically suitable areas are currently unoccupied. Improvements to climate matching techniques and ongoing surveillance are required to refine predictions to support effective management policies.     

Cenozoic long-term terrestrial climatic evolution in Germany tracked by δ18O of rodent tooth phosphate

Even though the Cenozoic has been recognized as a period of important climate change, long-term climatic changes that took place in the continental domain are still questioned. For an area, southern Germany, for which other long-term palaeoclimatic records exist, analysis of oxygen isotope composition of small mammal teeth has been carried out for localities ranging in age from the late Eocene (c.36 Ma) to the middle Miocene (c.10 Ma). Comparison of this long-term continental δ¹⁸O record with the marine record reveals comparable trends. The major Cenozoic climatic events are thus recognized in the continental oxygen isotope record.Through comparison with other quantitative palaeoclimatic reconstructions available for the studied area, temperatures in southern Germany are broadly estimated to have fluctuated between 12 °C and 25 °C from late Eocene to early late Miocene. According to the different available chronological frameworks, either a ～ 2 °C (considering the classical biostratigraphy) or a ～ 6 °C (considering a revised biostratigraphy) decrease in mean air temperature is estimated for the Eocene/Oligocene boundary.     

Did the Quaternary climatic fluctuations really influence the tempo and mode of diversification in European rodents?

The objective of this study was to establish whether the Quaternary climatic fluctuations influenced the tempo and mode of diversification in European rodents. Our case study is the subgenus Microtus (Terricola) distributed from western Europe to the Caucasus. Mitochondrial cytochrome b gene sequences from several representatives of all the species were used to generate maximum‐likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic trees, to estimate divergence times, to identify biogeographic ancestral areas and to study the rate of diversification. Results showed that phylogenetic tree topologies were similar to previous published studies but with a better resolution at some nodes. The origin of Microtus (Terricola) is dated back to approximately 4.05 Myr in the Early Pliocene, and molecular dating for most Terricola species corresponds to several glacial periods of the Pleistocene. Results of the biogeographic ancestral area reconstruction suggest that Microtus (Terricola) diversified from the Caucasus/Turkey/Iran area through western Europe. Several periods of diversity variation were highlighted as follows: two period of diversity increase, between 3 and 2 Myr, and after 1 Myr; two periods of diversity decrease, before 3 Myr, and between 2 and 1 Myr. The diversification rate of Microtus (Terricola) was 0.353 ± 0.004 event/Myr, a rate similar to that of the Muridae family. To conclude, although the Pleistocene glacial conditions had an impact on the speciation events, the Quaternary does not appear however as a period with an exceptional rate of diversification for European rodents.     

Influence of climatic factors upon tree rings of Larix decidua and L. decidua × L. kaempferi from Pulawy,Poland

Summary Dendroclimatological techniques are used to assess the impact of climatic factors on tree-ring width of Larix decidua and L. decidua × L. kaempferi (= L. x eurolepis) growing in two experimental plots established in 1914 in south-west Poland. One plot included F₁ progeny grown from seeds of an artificial crossing between European and Japanese larch. The other plot included progeny from maternal trees of European larch. Total ring width, earlywood width and latewood widths were dated, standardized and related to monthly climatic data using response function and stepwise multiple regression analyses. Wide rings in larch are associated with high precipitation in May–July, cool conditions in July–September of the preceding year, and cool dry conditions in August. Ring widths in L. x eurolepis are more dependent upon precipitation than ring widths in L. decidua. Latewood widths in L. x eurolepis are more dependent on high temperatures in June and July than latewood in L. decidua as well as total width and earlywood measurements. Variations in latewood were relatively independent of variations in earlywood and total wood. The variability of ring widths in these larches was greater than the variability reported for larches in many alpine sites and for other conifer species in some regions of North America.     

Who likes it hot? A global analysis of the climatic,ecological, and evolutionary determinants of warming tolerance in ants

Effects of climate warming on wild populations of organisms are expected to be greatest at higher latitudes, paralleling greater anticipated increases in temperature in these regions. Yet, these expectations assume that populations in different regions are equally susceptible to the effects of warming. This is unlikely to be the case. Here, we develop a series of predictive models for physiological thermal tolerances in ants based on current and future climates. We found that tropical ants have lower warming tolerances, a metric of susceptibility to climate warming, than temperate ants despite greater increases in temperature at higher latitudes. Using climatic, ecological and phylogenetic data, we refine our predictions of which ants (across all regions) were most susceptible to climate warming. We found that ants occupying warmer and more mesic forested habitats at lower elevations are the most physiologically susceptible to deleterious effects of climate warming. Phylogenetic history was also a strong indicator of physiological susceptibility. In short, we find that ants that live in the canopies of hot, tropical forest are the most at risk, globally, from climate warming. Unfortunately this is where many, perhaps most, ant and other species on Earth live.     

Hydrologic and climatic regimes limit phytoplankton biomass in reservoirs of the Upper Paraná River Basin,Brazil

In reservoirs of the Upper Paraná River Basin, Brazil Paraguay, phytoplankton biomass is generally low relative to reservoirs in other parts of the world. To investigate what might be limiting phytoplankton biomass in the Upper Paraná reservoirs, we used an empirical approach wherein climatic conditions in the basin as well as chemical, hydrological and morphometrical characteristics of 13 reservoirs, were compared against those prevailing in 58 reservoirs of the south-central United States. In both regions, phytoplankton biomass was correlated with chemical, hydrological and morphometrical characteristics of the reservoirs. There were no differences in phosphorus concentrations between the two regions, nitrogen levels were higher in the Upper Paraná, ionic concentrations were higher in the south-central United States and there were major differences in all physical characteristics considered. In reservoirs of the south-central United States, hydraulic retention time increased and discharges decreased during the post-spawning period allowing increases in phytoplankton biomass; in the Upper Paraná River Basin, discharges peaked during the post-spawning period, delaying the peak of phytoplankton blooms until after completion of the post-spawning period. Our comparison between the two sets of reservoirs suggests that hydrologic regimes dictate differences in phytoplankton biomass and that hydrology of the Upper Paraná River Basin, exacerbated by climatic patterns, deter phytoplankton production despite suitable levels of essential nutrients.