Including albedo in time‐dependent LCA of bioenergy

Albedo change during feedstock production can substantially alter the life cycle climate impact of bioenergy. Life cycle assessment (LCA) studies have compared the effects of albedo and greenhouse gases (GHGs) based on global warming potential (GWP). However, using GWP leads to unequal weighting of climate forcers that act on different timescales. In this study, albedo was included in the time‐dependent LCA, which accounts for the timing of emissions and their impacts. We employed field‐measured albedo and life cycle emissions data along with time‐dependent models of radiative transfer, biogenic carbon fluxes and nitrous oxide emissions from soil. Climate impacts were expressed as global mean surface temperature change over time (?T) and as GWP. The bioenergy system analysed was heat and power production from short‐rotation willow grown on former fallow land in Sweden. We found a net cooling effect in terms of ?T per hectare (?3.8 × 10^–11 K in year 100) and GWP₁₀₀ per MJ fuel (?12.2 g CO₂e), as a result of soil carbon sequestration via high inputs of carbon from willow roots and litter. Albedo was higher under willow than fallow, contributing to the cooling effect and accounting for 34% of GWP₁₀₀, 36% of ?T in year 50 and 6% of ?T in year 100. Albedo dominated the short‐term temperature response (10–20 years) but became, in relative terms, less important over time, owing to accumulation of soil carbon under sustained production and the longer perturbation lifetime of GHGs. The timing of impacts was explicit with ?T, which improves the relevance of LCA results to climate targets. Our method can be used to quantify the first‐order radiative effect of albedo change on the global climate and relate it to the climate impact of GHG emissions in LCA of bioenergy, alternative energy sources or land uses.     

Measured and modelled effect of land‐use change from temperate grassland to Miscanthus on soil carbon stocks after 12 years

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is an important carbon pool susceptible to land‐use change (LUC). There are concerns that converting grasslands into the C₄ bioenergy crop Miscanthus (to meet demands for renewable energy) could negatively impact SOC, resulting in reductions of greenhouse gas mitigation benefits gained from using Miscanthus as a fuel. This work addresses these concerns by sampling soils (0–30 cm) from a site 12 years (T₁₂) after conversion from marginal agricultural grassland into Miscanthus x giganteus and four other novel Miscanthus hybrids. Soil samples were analysed for changes in below‐ground biomass, SOC and Miscanthus contribution to SOC (using a ¹³C natural abundance approach). Findings are compared to ECOSSE soil carbon model results (run for a LUC from grassland to Miscanthus scenario and continued grassland counterfactual), and wider implications are considered in the context of life cycle assessments based on the heating value of the dry matter (DM) feedstock. The mean T₁₂ SOC stock at the site was 8 (±1 standard error) Mg C/ha lower than baseline time zero stocks (T₀), with assessment of the five individual hybrids showing that while all had lower SOC stock than at T₀ the difference was only significant for a single hybrid. Over the longer term, new Miscanthus C₄ carbon replaces pre‐existing C₃ carbon, though not at a high enough rate to completely offset losses by the end of year 12. At the end of simulated crop lifetime (15 years), the difference in SOC stocks between the two scenarios was 4 Mg C/ha (5 g CO₂‐eq/MJ). Including modelled LUC‐induced SOC loss, along with carbon costs relating to soil nitrous oxide emissions, doubled the greenhouse gas intensity of Miscanthus to give a total global warming potential of 10 g CO₂‐eq/MJ (180 kg CO₂‐eq/Mg DM).     

Evaluation of the ECOSSE model for simulating soil organic carbon under Miscanthus and short rotation coppice‐willow crops in Britain

In this paper, we focus on the impact on soil organic carbon (SOC) of two dedicated energy crops: perennial grass Miscanthus x Giganteus (Miscanthus) and short rotation coppice (SRC)‐willow. The amount of SOC sequestered in the soil is a function of site‐specific factors including soil texture, management practices, initial SOC levels and climate; for these reasons, both losses and gains in SOC were observed in previous Miscanthus and SRC‐willow studies. The ECOSSE model was developed to simulate soil C dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions in mineral and organic soils. The performance of ECOSSE has already been tested at site level to simulate the impacts of land‐use change to short rotation forestry (SRF) on SOC. However, it has not been extensively evaluated under other bioenergy plantations, such as Miscanthus and SRC‐willow. Twenty‐nine locations in the United Kingdom, comprising 19 paired transitions to SRC‐willow and 20 paired transitions to Miscanthus, were selected to evaluate the performance of ECOSSE in predicting SOC and SOC change from conventional systems (arable and grassland) to these selected bioenergy crops. The results of the present work revealed a strong correlation between modelled and measured SOC and SOC change after transition to Miscanthus and SRC‐willow plantations, at two soil depths (0–30 and 0–100 cm), as well as the absence of significant bias in the model. Moreover, model error was within (i.e. not significantly larger than) the measurement error. The high degrees of association and coincidence with measured SOC under Miscanthus and SRC‐willow plantations in the United Kingdom, provide confidence in using this process‐based model for quantitatively predicting the impacts of future land use on SOC, at site level as well as at national level.     

Influence of spatially dependent,modeled soil carbon emission factors on life‐cycle greenhouse gas emissions of corn and cellulosic ethanol

Converting land to biofuel feedstock production incurs changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) that can influence biofuel life‐cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Estimates of these land use change (LUC) and life‐cycle GHG emissions affect biofuels' attractiveness and eligibility under a number of renewable fuel policies in the USA and abroad. Modeling was used to refine the spatial resolution and depth extent of domestic estimates of SOC change for land (cropland, cropland pasture, grassland, and forest) conversion scenarios to biofuel crops (corn, corn stover, switchgrass, Miscanthus, poplar, and willow) at the county level in the USA. Results show that in most regions, conversions from cropland and cropland pasture to biofuel crops led to neutral or small levels of SOC sequestration, while conversion of grassland and forest generally caused net SOC loss. SOC change results were incorporated into the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation (GREET) model to assess their influence on life‐cycle GHG emissions of corn and cellulosic ethanol. Total LUC GHG emissions (g CO₂eq MJ^?1) were 2.1–9.3 for corn‐, ?0.7 for corn stover‐, ?3.4 to 12.9 for switchgrass‐, and ?20.1 to ?6.2 for Miscanthus ethanol; these varied with SOC modeling assumptions applied. Extending the soil depth from 30 to 100 cm affected spatially explicit SOC change and overall LUC GHG emissions; however, the influence on LUC GHG emission estimates was less significant in corn and corn stover than cellulosic feedstocks. Total life‐cycle GHG emissions (g CO₂eq MJ^?1, 100 cm) were estimated to be 59–66 for corn ethanol, 14 for stover ethanol, 18–26 for switchgrass ethanol, and ?7 to ?0.6 for Miscanthus ethanol. The LUC GHG emissions associated with poplar‐ and willow‐derived ethanol may be higher than that for switchgrass ethanol due to lower biomass yield.     

Soil carbon sequestration and land use change associated with biofuel production: empirical evidence

Soil organic carbon (SOC) change can be a major impact of land use change (LUC) associated with biofuel feedstock production. By collecting and analyzing data from worldwide field observations of major LUCs from cropland, grassland, and forest to lands producing biofuel crops (i.e. corn, switchgrass, Miscanthus, poplar, and willow), we were able to estimate SOC response ratios and sequestration rates and evaluate the effects of soil depth and time scale on SOC change. Both the amount and rate of SOC change were highly dependent on the specific land transition. Irrespective of soil depth or time horizon, cropland conversions resulted in an overall SOC gain of 6–14% relative to initial SOC level, while conversion from grassland or forest to corn (without residue removal) or poplar caused significant carbon loss (9–35%). No significant SOC changes were observed in land converted from grasslands or forests to switchgrass, Miscanthus, or willow. The SOC response ratios were similar in both 0–30 and 0–100 cm soil depths in most cases, suggesting SOC changes in deep soil and that use of top soil only for SOC accounting in biofuel life cycle analysis (LCA) might underestimate total SOC changes. Soil carbon sequestration rates varied greatly among studies and land transition types. Generally, the rates of SOC change tended to be the greatest during the 10 years following land conversion and had declined to approach 0 within about 20 years for most LUCs. Observed trends in SOC change were generally consistent with previous reports. Soil depth and duration of study significantly influence SOC change rates and so should be considered in carbon emission accounting in biofuel LCA. High uncertainty remains for many perennial systems and forest transitions, additional field trials, and modeling efforts are needed to draw conclusions about the site‐ and system‐specific rates and direction of change.     

Environmental implications of the use of agro‐industrial residues for biorefineries: application of a deterministic model for indirect land‐use changes

Biorefining agro‐industrial biomass residues for bioenergy production represents an opportunity for both sustainable energy supply and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation. Yet, is bioenergy the most sustainable use for these residues? To assess the importance of the alternative use of these residues, a consequential life cycle assessment (LCA) of 32 energy‐focused biorefinery scenarios was performed based on eight selected agro‐industrial residues and four conversion pathways (two involving bioethanol and two biogas). To specifically address indirect land‐use changes (iLUC) induced by the competing feed/food sector, a deterministic iLUC model, addressing global impacts, was developed. A dedicated biochemical model was developed to establish detailed mass, energy, and substance balances for each biomass conversion pathway, as input to the LCA. The results demonstrated that, even for residual biomass, environmental savings from fossil fuel displacement can be completely outbalanced by iLUC, depending on the feed value of the biomass residue. This was the case of industrial residues (e.g. whey and beet molasses) in most of the scenarios assessed. Overall, the GHGs from iLUC impacts were quantified to 4.1 t CO₂‐eq.ha^?1_demanded yr^?1 corresponding to 1.2–1.4 t CO₂‐eq. t^?1 dry biomass diverted from feed to energy market. Only, bioenergy from straw and wild grass was shown to perform better than the alternative use, as no competition with the feed sector was involved. Biogas for heat and power production was the best performing pathway, in a short‐term context. Focusing on transport fuels, bioethanol was generally preferable to biomethane considering conventional biogas upgrading technologies. Based on the results, agro‐industrial residues cannot be considered burden‐free simply because they are a residual biomass and careful accounting of alternative utilization is a prerequisite to assess the sustainability of a given use. In this endeavor, the iLUC factors and biochemical model proposed herein can be used as templates and directly applied to any bioenergy consequential study involving demand for arable land.     

Using ecosystem CO2 measurements to estimate the timing and magnitude of greenhouse gas mitigation potential of forest bioenergy

Forest bioenergy opportunities may be hindered by a long greenhouse gas (GHG) payback time. Estimating this payback time requires the quantification of forest‐atmosphere carbon exchanges, usually through process‐based simulation models. Such models are prone to large uncertainties, especially over long‐term carbon fluxes from dead organic matter pools. We propose the use of whole ecosystem field‐measured CO₂ exchanges obtained from eddy covariance flux towers to assess the GHG mitigation potential of forest biomass projects as a way to implicitly integrate all field‐level CO₂ fluxes and the inter‐annual variability in these fluxes. As an example, we perform the evaluation of a theoretical bioenergy project that uses tree stems as bioenergy feedstock and include multi‐year measurements of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) from forest harvest chronosequences in the boreal forest of Canada to estimate the time dynamics of ecosystem CO₂ exchanges following harvesting. Results from this approach are consistent with previous results using process‐based models and suggest a multi‐decadal payback time for our project. The time for atmospheric carbon debt repayment of bioenergy projects is highly dependent on ecosystem‐level CO₂ exchanges. The use of empirical NEE measurements may provide a direct evaluation of, or at least constraints on, the GHG mitigation potential of forest bioenergy projects.     

Land use change from C3 grassland to C4 Miscanthus: effects on soil carbon content and estimated mitigation benefit after six years

To date, most Miscanthus trials and commercial fields have been planted on arable land. Energy crops will need to be grown more on lower grade lands unsuitable for arable crops. Grasslands represent a major land resource for energy crops. In grasslands, where soil organic carbon (SOC) levels can be high, there have been concerns that the carbon mitigation benefits of bioenergy from Miscanthus could be offset by losses in SOC associated with land use change. At a site in Wales (UK), we quantified the relatively short‐term impacts (6 years) of four novel Miscanthus hybrids and Miscanthus × giganteus on SOC in improved grassland. After 6 years, using stable carbon isotope ratios (¹³C/¹²C), the amount of Miscanthus derived C (C4) in total SOC was considerable (ca. 12%) and positively correlated to belowground biomass of different hybrids. Nevertheless, significant changes in SOC stocks (0–30 cm) were not detected as C4 Miscanthus carbon replaced the initial C3 grassland carbon; however, initial SOC decreased more in the presence of higher belowground biomass. We ascribed this apparently contradictory result to the rhizosphere priming effect triggered by easily available C sources. Observed changes in SOC partitioning were modelled using the RothC soil carbon turnover model and projected for 20 years showing that there is no significant change in SOC throughout the anticipated life of a Miscanthus crop. We interpret our observations to mean that the new labile C from Miscanthus has replaced the labile C from the grassland and, therefore, planting Miscanthus causes an insignificant change in soil organic carbon. The overall C mitigation benefit is therefore not decreased by depletion of soil C and is due to substitution of fossil fuel by the aboveground biomass, in this instance 73–108 Mg C ha^?1 for the lowest and highest yielding hybrids, respectively, after 6 years.     

The carbon implications of large‐scale afforestation of agriculturally marginal land with short‐rotation willow in Saskatchewan

Afforestation with short‐rotation coppice (SRC) willow plantations for the purpose of producing bioenergy feedstock was contemplated as one potential climate change mitigation option. The objectives of this study were to assess the magnitude of this mitigation potential by addressing: (i) the land area potentially available for SRC systems in the province of Saskatchewan, Canada; (ii) the potential biomass yields of SRC plantations; and (iii) the carbon implications from such a large‐scale afforestation program. Digital soils and land‐use data were used to identify, map, and group into clusters of similar polygons 2.12 million hectares (Mha) of agriculturally marginal land that was potentially suitable for willow in the Boreal Plains and Prairies ecozones in Saskatchewan. The Physiological Principles in Predicting Growth (3PG) model was calibrated with data from SRC experiments in Saskatchewan, to quantify potential willow biomass yields, and the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM‐CFS3), was used to simulate stand and landscape‐level C fluxes and stocks. Short‐rotation willow plantations managed in 3 year rotations for seven consecutive harvests (21 years) after coppicing at Year 1 produced about 12 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1 biomass. The more significant contribution to the C cycle was the cumulative harvest. After 44 years, the potential average cumulative harvested biomass C in the Prairies was 244 Mg C ha^?1 (5.5 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1) about 20% higher than the average for the Boreal Plains, 203 Mg C ha^?1 (4.6 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1). This analysis did not consider afforestation costs, rate of establishment of willow plantations, and other constraints, such as drought and disease effects on biomass yield. The results must therefore be interpreted as a biophysical mitigation potential with the technical and economic potential being both lower than our estimates. Nevertheless, short‐rotation bioenergy plantations offer one potential mitigation option to reduce the rate of CO₂ accumulation in the earth's atmosphere and further research is needed to operationalise such a mitigation effort.     

Quantifying the global warming potential of CO2 emissions from wood fuels

Recent studies have introduced the metric GWP_bio, an indicator of the potential global warming impact of CO₂ emissions from biofuels. When a time horizon of 100 years was applied, the studies found the GWP_bio of bioenergy from slow‐growing forests to be significantly lower than the traditionally calculated GWP of CO₂ from fossil fuels. This result means that bioenergy is an attractive energy source from a climate mitigation perspective. The present paper provides an improved method for quantifying GWP_bio. The method is based on a model of a forest stand that includes basic dynamics and interactions of the forest's multiple carbon pools, including harvest residues, other dead organic matter, and soil carbon. Moreover, the baseline scenario (with no harvest) takes into account that a mature stand will usually continue to capture carbon if not harvested. With these methodological adjustments, the resulting GWP_bio estimates are found to be two to three times as high as the estimates of GWP_bio found in other studies, and also significantly higher than the GWP of fossil CO₂, when a 100‐year time horizon is applied. Hence, the climate impact per unit of CO₂ emitted seems to be even higher for the combustion of slow‐growing biomass than for the combustion of fossil carbon in a 100‐year time frame.     

Environmental performance of gasified willow from different lands including land‐use changes

A life‐cycle assessment (LCA) of a low‐input, short rotation coppice (SRC) willow grown on different Danish lands was performed. Woodchips are gasified, producer gas is used for cogeneration of heat and power (CHP), and the ash–char output is applied as soil amendment in the field. A hybrid model was developed for the estimation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from indirect land‐use changes (iLUC) induced by willow cropping on arable land (iLUC_food). For this, area expansion results from a general equilibrium economic model were combined with global LUC trends to differentiate between land transformation (as additional agricultural expansion, in areas with historical deforestation) and occupation (as delayed relaxation, DR, in areas with historical land abandonment) impacts. A biophysical approach was followed to determine the iLUC_feed emissions factor from marginal grassland. Land transformation impacts were derived from latest world deforestation statistics, while a commercial feed mix of equivalent nutritive value was assumed to substitute the displaced grass as fodder. Intensification effects were included in both iLUC factors as additional N‐fertilizer consumption. Finally, DR impacts were considered for abandoned farmland, as a relative C stock loss compared to natural regeneration. ILUC results show that area related GHG emissions are dominant (93% of iLUC_food and 80% of iLUC_feed), transformation being more important (82% of iLUC_food) than occupation (11%) impacts. LCA results show that CHP from willow emits 4047 kg CO₂‐eq (or 0.8 gCO₂‐eq MJ^?1) when grown on arable land, while sequestering 43 745 kg CO₂‐eq (or ?10.4 gCO₂‐eq MJ^?1) when planted on marginal pastureland, and 134 296 kg CO₂‐eq (or ?31.8 gCO₂‐eq MJ^?1) when marginal abandoned land is cultivated. Increasing the bioenergy potential without undesirable iLUC effects, especially relevant regarding biodiversity impacts, requires that part of the marginally used extensive grasslands are released from their current use or energy cropping on abandoned farmland incentivized.     

Tree mineral nutrition is deteriorating in Europe

The response of forest ecosystems to increased atmospheric CO₂ is constrained by nutrient availability. It is thus crucial to account for nutrient limitation when studying the forest response to climate change. The objectives of this study were to describe the nutritional status of the main European tree species, to identify growth‐limiting nutrients and to assess changes in tree nutrition during the past two decades. We analysed the foliar nutrition data collected during 1992–2009 on the intensive forest monitoring plots of the ICP Forests programme. Of the 22 significant temporal trends that were observed in foliar nutrient concentrations, 20 were decreasing and two were increasing. Some of these trends were alarming, among which the foliar P concentration in F. sylvatica, Q. Petraea and P. sylvestris that significantly deteriorated during 1992–2009. In Q. Petraea and P. sylvestris, the decrease in foliar P concentration was more pronounced on plots with low foliar P status, meaning that trees with latent P deficiency could become deficient in the near future. Increased tree productivity, possibly resulting from high N deposition and from the global increase in atmospheric CO₂, has led to higher nutrient demand by trees. As the soil nutrient supply was not always sufficient to meet the demands of faster growing trees, this could partly explain the deterioration of tree mineral nutrition. The results suggest that when evaluating forest carbon storage capacity and when planning to reduce CO₂ emissions by increasing use of wood biomass for bioenergy, it is crucial that nutrient limitations for forest growth are considered.     

Water use and yield of bioenergy poplar in future climates: modelling the interactive effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 and climate on productivity and water use

Vegetation exerts large control on global biogeochemical cycles through the processes of photosynthesis and transpiration that exchange CO₂ and water between the land and the atmosphere. Increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations exert direct effects on vegetation through enhanced photosynthesis and reduced stomatal conductance, and indirect effects through changes in climatic variables that drive these processes. How these direct and indirect CO₂ impacts interact with each other to affect plant productivity and water use has not been explicitly analysed and remains unclear, yet is important to fully understand the response of the global carbon cycle to future climate change. Here, we use a set of factorial modelling experiments to quantify the direct and indirect impacts of atmospheric CO₂ and their interaction on yield and water use in bioenergy short rotation coppice poplar, in addition to quantifying the impact of other environmental drivers such as soil type. We use the JULES land‐surface model forced with a ten‐member ensemble of projected climate change for 2100 with atmospheric CO₂ concentrations representative of the A1B emissions scenario. We show that the simulated response of plant productivity to future climate change was nonadditive in JULES, however this nonadditivity was not apparent for plant transpiration. The responses of both growth and transpiration under all experimental scenarios were highly variable between sites, highlighting the complexity of interactions between direct physiological CO₂ effects and indirect climate effects. As a result, no general pattern explaining the response of bioenergy poplar water use and yield to future climate change could be discerned across sites. This study suggests attempts to infer future climate change impacts on the land biosphere from studies that force with either the direct or indirect CO₂ effects in isolation from each other may lead to incorrect conclusions in terms of both the direction and magnitude of plant response to future climate change.     

Conversion of open lands to short‐rotation woody biomass crops: site variability affects nitrogen cycling and N2O fluxes in the US Northern Lake States

Short‐rotation woody biomass crops (SRWC) have been proposed as a major feedstock source for bioenergy generation in the Northeastern US. To quantify the environmental effects and greenhouse gas (GHG) balance of crops including SRWC, investigators need spatially explicit data which encompass entire plantation cycles. A knowledge gap exists for the establishment period which makes current GHG calculations incomplete. In this study, we investigated the effects of converting pasture and hayfields to willow (Salix spp.) and hybrid‐poplar (Populus spp.) SRWC plantations on soil nitrogen (N) cycling, nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions, and nitrate (NO₃^?) leaching at six sites of varying soil and climate conditions across northern Michigan and Wisconsin, following these plantations from pre conversion through their first 2 years. All six sites responded to establishment with increased N₂O emissions, available inorganic N, and, where it was measured, NO₃^? leaching; however, the magnitude of these impacts varied dramatically among sites. Soil NO₃^? levels varied threefold among sites, with peak extractable NO₃^? concentrations ranging from 15 to 49 g N kg^?1 soil. Leaching losses were significant and persisted through the second year, with 44–112 kg N ha^?1 leached in SRWC plots. N₂O emissions in the first growing season varied 30‐fold among sites, from 0.5 to 17.0 Mg‐CO_2eq ha^?1 (carbon dioxide equivalents). N₂O emissions over 2 years resulted in N₂O emissions due to plantation establishment that ranged from 0.60 to 22.14 Mg‐CO_2eq ha^?1 above baseline control levels across sites. The large N losses we document herein demonstrate the importance of including direct effects of land conversion in life‐cycle analysis (LCA) studies of SRWC GHG balance. Our results also demonstrate the need for better estimation of spatial variability of N cycling processes to quantify the full environmental impacts of SRWC plantations.     

Effects of Management on Economic Profitability of Forest Biomass Production and Carbon Neutrality of Bioenergy Use in Norway Spruce Stands Under the Changing Climate

We analyzed the effects of management on the economic profitability of forest biomass production and carbon neutrality of bioenergy use in Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst) stands under the changing climate. We employed a forest ecosystem model and life cycle assessment tool. In particular, we studied the effects of thinning, nitrogen fertilization, and rotation length on: (1) the production of timber and energy biomass, and its economic profitability (net present value), (2) carbon stock in the forest ecosystem and carbon balance in forestry, and (3) carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from the use of biomass in energy production. Results showed that the current Finnish baseline management with and without nitrogen fertilization resulted in the highest mean annual timber production and net present value (NPV) for long rotations (60 to 80 years), regardless of climate scenario. Mean annual production of energy biomass was enhanced by increasing stocking by 20–30 % compared to the baseline management, and/or use of nitrogen fertilization. Such management gave lower CO₂ emissions per unit of energy compared to the baseline management, as the carbon stock in the forest ecosystem and the carbon balance in forestry increased. Overall, the carbon neutrality and net present value were, on average, the highest in the baseline management or with a 20 % increase in stocking, with nitrogen fertilization and 60- to 80-year rotation lengths, regardless of the climate applied. However, it was not possible to simultaneously maximize the NPV of forest biomass production and the carbon neutrality of bioenergy use.     

Implications of land class and environmental factors on life cycle GHG emissions of Miscanthus as a bioenergy feedstock

Replacement of fossil fuels with sustainably produced biomass crops for energy purposes has the potential to make progress in addressing climate change concerns, nonrenewable resource use, and energy security. The perennial grass Miscanthus is a dedicated energy crop candidate being field tested in Ontario, Canada, and elsewhere. Miscanthus could potentially be grown in areas of the province that differ substantially in terms of agricultural land class, environmental factors and current land use. These differences could significantly affect Miscanthus yields, input requirements, production practices, and the types of crops being displaced by Miscanthus establishment. This study assesses implications on life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of these differences through evaluating five Miscanthus production scenarios within the Ontario context. Emissions associated with electricity generation with Miscanthus pellets in a hypothetically retrofitted coal generating station are examined. Indirect land use change impacts are not quantified but are discussed. The net life cycle emissions for Miscanthus production varied greatly among scenarios (?90–170 kg CO₂eq per oven dry tonne of Miscanthus bales at the farm gate). In some cases, the carbon stock dynamics of the agricultural system offset the combined emissions of all other life cycle stages (i.e., production, harvest, transport, and processing of biomass). Yield and soil C of the displaced agricultural systems are key parameters affecting emissions. The systems with the highest potential to provide reductions in GHG emissions are those with high yields, or systems established on land with low soil carbon. All scenarios have substantially lower life cycle emissions (?20–190 g CO₂eq kWh^?1) compared with coal‐generated electricity (1130 g CO₂eq kWh^?1). Policy development should consider the implication of land class, environmental factors, and current land use on Miscanthus production.     

CO2 emissions from biomass combustion for bioenergy: atmospheric decay and contribution to global warming

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from biomass combustion are traditionally assumed climate neutral if the bioenergy system is carbon (C) flux neutral, i.e. the CO₂ released from biofuel combustion approximately equals the amount of CO₂ sequestered in biomass. This convention, widely adopted in life cycle assessment (LCA) studies of bioenergy systems, underestimates the climate impact of bioenergy. Besides CO₂ emissions from permanent C losses, CO₂ emissions from C flux neutral systems (that is from temporary C losses) also contribute to climate change: before being captured by biomass regrowth, CO₂ molecules spend time in the atmosphere and contribute to global warming. In this paper, a method to estimate the climate impact of CO₂ emissions from biomass combustion is proposed. Our method uses CO₂ impulse response functions (IRF) from C cycle models in the elaboration of atmospheric decay functions for biomass‐derived CO₂ emissions. Their contributions to global warming are then quantified with a unit‐based index, the GWP_bio. Since this index is expressed as a function of the rotation period of the biomass, our results can be applied to CO₂ emissions from combustion of all the different biomass species, from annual row crops to slower growing boreal forest.     

Initial soil C and land‐use history determine soil C sequestration under perennial bioenergy crops

In the UK and other temperate regions, short rotation coppice (SRC) and Miscanthus x giganteus (Miscanthus) are two of the leading ‘second‐generation’ bioenergy crops. Grown specifically as a low‐carbon (C) fossil fuel replacement, calculations of the climate mitigation provided by these bioenergy crops rely on accurate data. There are concerns that uncertainty about impacts on soil C stocks of transitions from current agricultural land use to these bioenergy crops could lead to either an under‐ or overestimate of their climate mitigation potential. Here, for locations across mainland Great Britain (GB), a paired‐site approach and a combination of 30‐cm‐ and 1‐m‐deep soil sampling were used to quantify impacts of bioenergy land‐use transitions on soil C stocks in 41 commercial land‐use transitions; 12 arable to SRC, 9 grasslands to SRC, 11 arable to Miscanthus and 9 grasslands to Miscanthus. Mean soil C stocks were lower under both bioenergy crops than under the grassland controls but only significant at 0–30 cm. Mean soil C stocks at 0–30 cm were 33.55 ± 7.52 Mg C ha^?1 and 26.83 ± 8.08 Mg C ha^?1 lower under SRC (P = 0.004) and Miscanthus plantations (P = 0.001), respectively. Differences between bioenergy crops and arable controls were not significant in either the 30‐cm or 1‐m soil cores and smaller than for transitions from grassland. No correlation was detected between change in soil C stock and bioenergy crop age (time since establishment) or soil texture. Change in soil C stock was, however, negatively correlated with the soil C stock in the original land use. We suggest, therefore, that selection of sites for bioenergy crop establishment with lower soil C stocks, most often under arable land use, is the most likely to result in increased soil C stocks.     

Projection of the future EU forest CO2 sink as affected by recent bioenergy policies using two advanced forest management models

Forests of the European Union (EU) have been intensively managed for decades, and they have formed a significant sink for carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere over the past 50 years. The reasons for this behavior are multiple, among them are: forest aging, area expansion, increasing plant productivity due to environmental changes of many kinds, and, most importantly, the growth rates of European forest having been higher than harvest rates. EU countries have agreed to reduce total emissions of GHG by 20% in 2020 compared to 1990, excluding the forest sink. A relevant question for climate policy is: how long will the current sink of EU forests be maintained in the near future? And could it be affected by other mitigation measures such as bioenergy? In this article we assess tradeoffs of bioenergy use and carbon sequestration at large scale and describe results of the comparison of two advanced forest management models that are used to project CO₂ emissions and removals from EU forests until 2030. EFISCEN, a detailed statistical matrix model and G4M, a geographically explicit economic forestry model, use scenarios of future harvest rates and forest growth information to estimate the future carbon balance of forest biomass. Two scenarios were assessed: the EU baseline scenario and the EU reference scenario (including additional bioenergy and climate policies). Our projections suggest a significant decline of the sink until 2030 in the baseline scenario of about 25–40% (or 65–125 Mt CO₂) compared to the models’ 2010 estimate. Including additional bioenergy targets of EU member states has an effect on the development of this sink, which is not accounted in the EU emission reduction target. A sensitivity analysis was performed on the role of future wood demand and proved the importance of this driver for the future sink development.     

Land use of drained peatlands: Greenhouse gas fluxes,plant production,and economics

Drained peatlands are hotspots for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which could be mitigated by rewetting and land use change. We performed an ecological/economic analysis of rewetting drained fertile peatlands in a hemiboreal climate using different land use strategies over 80 years. Vegetation, soil processes, and total GHG emissions were modeled using the CoupModel for four scenarios: (1) business as usual—Norway spruce with average soil water table of ?40 cm; (2) willow with groundwater at ?20 cm; (3) reed canary grass with groundwater at ?10 cm; and (4) a fully rewetted peatland. The predictions were based on previous model calibrations with several high‐resolution datasets consisting of water, heat, carbon, and nitrogen cycling. Spruce growth was calibrated by tree‐ring data that extended the time period covered. The GHG balance of four scenarios, including vegetation and soil, were 4.7, 7.1, 9.1, and 6.2 Mg CO₂eq ha^?1 year^?1, respectively. The total soil emissions (including litter and peat respiration CO₂ + N₂O + CH₄) were 33.1, 19.3, 15.3, and 11.0 Mg CO₂eq ha^?1 year^?1, respectively, of which the peat loss contributed 35%, 24%, and 7% of the soil emissions for the three drained scenarios, respectively. No peat was lost for the wet peatland. It was also found that draining increases vegetation growth, but not as drastically as peat respiration does. The cost–benefit analysis (CBA) is sensitive to time frame, discount rate, and carbon price. Our results indicate that the net benefit was greater with a somewhat higher soil water table and when the peatland was vegetated with willow and reed canary grass (Scenarios 2 and 3). We conclude that saving peat and avoiding methane release using fairly wet conditions can significantly reduce GHG emissions, and that this strategy should be considered for land use planning and policy‐making.