Winter climate change and coastal wetland foundation species: salt marshes vs. mangrove forests in the southeastern United States

We live in an era of unprecedented ecological change in which ecologists and natural resource managers are increasingly challenged to anticipate and prepare for the ecological effects of future global change. In this study, we investigated the potential effect of winter climate change upon salt marsh and mangrove forest foundation species in the southeastern United States. Our research addresses the following three questions: (1) What is the relationship between winter climate and the presence and abundance of mangrove forests relative to salt marshes; (2) How vulnerable are salt marshes to winter climate change‐induced mangrove forest range expansion; and (3) What is the potential future distribution and relative abundance of mangrove forests under alternative winter climate change scenarios? We developed simple winter climate‐based models to predict mangrove forest distribution and relative abundance using observed winter temperature data (1970–2000) and mangrove forest and salt marsh habitat data. Our results identify winter climate thresholds for salt marsh–mangrove forest interactions and highlight coastal areas in the southeastern United States (e.g., Texas, Louisiana, and parts of Florida) where relatively small changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme winter events could cause relatively dramatic landscape‐scale ecosystem structural and functional change in the form of poleward mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. The ecological implications of these marsh‐to‐mangrove forest conversions are poorly understood, but would likely include changes for associated fish and wildlife populations and for the supply of some ecosystem goods and services.     

The Contribution of Mangrove Expansion to Salt Marsh Loss on the Texas Gulf Coast

Landscape-level shifts in plant species distribution and abundance can fundamentally change the ecology of an ecosystem. Such shifts are occurring within mangrove-marsh ecotones, where over the last few decades, relatively mild winters have led to mangrove expansion into areas previously occupied by salt marsh plants. On the Texas (USA) coast of the western Gulf of Mexico, most cases of mangrove expansion have been documented within specific bays or watersheds. Based on this body of relatively small-scale work and broader global patterns of mangrove expansion, we hypothesized that there has been a recent regional-level displacement of salt marshes by mangroves. We classified Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper images using artificial neural networks to quantify black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) expansion and salt marsh (Spartina alterniflora and other grass and forb species) loss over 20 years across the entire Texas coast. Between 1990 and 2010, mangrove area grew by 16.1 km², a 74% increase. Concurrently, salt marsh area decreased by 77.8 km², a 24% net loss. Only 6% of that loss was attributable to mangrove expansion; most salt marsh was lost due to conversion to tidal flats or water, likely a result of relative sea level rise. Our research confirmed that mangroves are expanding and, in some instances, displacing salt marshes at certain locations. However, this shift is not widespread when analyzed at a larger, regional level. Rather, local, relative sea level rise was indirectly implicated as another important driver causing regional-level salt marsh loss. Climate change is expected to accelerate both sea level rise and mangrove expansion; these mechanisms are likely to interact synergistically and contribute to salt marsh loss.     

Will fluctuations in salt marsh–mangrove dominance alter vulnerability of a subtropical wetland to sea‐level rise?

To avoid submergence during sea‐level rise, coastal wetlands build soil surfaces vertically through accumulation of inorganic sediment and organic matter. At climatic boundaries where mangroves are expanding and replacing salt marsh, wetland capacity to respond to sea‐level rise may change. To compare how well mangroves and salt marshes accommodate sea‐level rise, we conducted a manipulative field experiment in a subtropical plant community in the subsiding Mississippi River Delta. Experimental plots were established in spatially equivalent positions along creek banks in monospecific stands of Spartina alterniflora (smooth cordgrass) or Avicennia germinans (black mangrove) and in mixed stands containing both species. To examine the effect of disturbance on elevation dynamics, vegetation in half of the plots was subjected to freezing (mangrove) or wrack burial (salt marsh), which caused shoot mortality. Vertical soil development was monitored for 6 years with the surface elevation table‐marker horizon system. Comparison of land movement with relative sea‐level rise showed that this plant community was experiencing an elevation deficit (i.e., sea level was rising faster than the wetland was building vertically) and was relying on elevation capital (i.e., relative position in the tidal frame) to survive. Although Avicennia plots had more elevation capital, suggesting longer survival, than Spartina or mixed plots, vegetation type had no effect on rates of accretion, vertical movement in root and sub‐root zones, or net elevation change. Thus, these salt marsh and mangrove assemblages were accreting sediment and building vertically at equivalent rates. Small‐scale disturbance of the plant canopy also had no effect on elevation trajectories—contrary to work in peat‐forming wetlands showing elevation responses to changes in plant productivity. The findings indicate that in this deltaic setting with strong physical influences controlling elevation (sediment accretion, subsidence), mangrove replacement of salt marsh, with or without disturbance, will not necessarily alter vulnerability to sea‐level rise.     

Detrital traits affect substitutability of a range‐expanding foundation species across latitude

Climate‐driven range shifts of foundation species could alter ecosystem processes and community composition by providing different resources than resident foundation species. Along the US Atlantic coast, the northward expanding foundation species, black mangrove Avicennia germinans, is replacing the dominant salt marsh foundation species, marsh cordgrass Spartina alterniflora. These species have distinct detrital attributes that ostensibly provide different resources to epifauna. We experimentally examined how detritus of these species affects decomposition and community composition in different habitat contexts at regional and local scales. First, we manipulated detritus identity (Avicennia, Spartina) at 13 sites across a 5° latitudinal gradient spanning mangrove, mixed marsh‐mangrove and salt marsh habitats. Across latitude, we found that Avicennia detritus decomposed 2–4 times faster than Spartina detritus, suggesting that detrital turnover will increase with mangrove expansion. Epifaunal abundance and richness increased 2–7 times from south to north (mangrove to salt marsh) and were equivalent between Avicennia and Spartina detritus except for crabs, a dominant taxonomic group that preferred Spartina detritus. Second, to examine the whether changing habitat context affected regional patterns, we manipulated detritus identity and surrounding habitat type (mangrove, salt marsh) at a single mixed site, also including inert mimics to separate structural and nutritional roles of detritus. Epifaunal richness was similar between the two detrital types, but crabs were 2–7 times more abundant in Spartina detritus due to its structural attributes. Surrounding habitat type did not influence decomposition rate or community patterns, which suggests that latitudinal influences, not surrounding habitat, drove the regional community patterns in the first experiment. Overall, mangrove expansion could alter epifaunal communities due to the lower structural value and faster turnover of mangrove detritus. As species shift with changing climate, understanding foundation species substitutability is critical to predict community change, but we must account for concomitant environmental changes that also modify communities.     

An anthropogenic habitat within a suboptimal colonized ecosystem provides improved conditions for a range‐shifting species

Many species are shifting their ranges in response to the changing climate. In cases where such shifts lead to the colonization of a new ecosystem, it is critical to establish how the shifting species itself is impacted by novel environmental and biological interactions. Anthropogenic habitats that are analogous to the historic habitat of a shifting species may play a crucial role in the ability of that species to expand or persist in suboptimal colonized ecosystems. We tested if the anthropogenic habitat of docks, a likely mangrove analog, provides improved conditions for the range‐shifting mangrove tree crab Aratus pisonii within the colonized suboptimal salt marsh ecosystem. To test if docks provided an improved habitat, we compared the impact of the salt marsh and dock habitats on ecological and life history traits that influence the ability of this species to persist and expand into the salt marsh and compared these back to baselines in the historic mangrove ecosystem. Specifically, we examined behavior, physiology, foraging, and the thermal conditions of A. pisonii in each habitat. We found that docks provide a more favorable thermal and foraging habitat than the surrounding salt marsh, while their ability to provide conditions which improved behavior and physiology was mixed. Our study shows that anthropogenic habitats can act as analogs to historic ecosystems and enhance the habitat quality for range‐shifting species in colonized suboptimal ecosystems. If the patterns that we document are general across systems, then anthropogenic habitats may play an important facilitative role in the range shifts of species with continued climate change.     

Biogeography of salt marsh plant zonation on the Pacific coast of South America

Aim

The aim of this study was to investigate the biogeography of plant zonation in salt marshes on the Pacific coast of South America; to examine whether salt marsh plant zonation varies with latitude; and to explore the relative importance of climatic, tidal, edaphic and disturbance factors in explaining large‐scale variation in salt marsh plant community structure.

Location

A 2,000‐km latitudinal gradient on the Pacific coast in Chile, with a climate shift from hyper‐arid at low to hyper‐humid at high latitudes.

Methods

Plant zonation was quantified in field surveys of ten marshes. Climate, tidal regimes, edaphic factors and disturbances (tsunami and rainfall floods) were determined. We used multivariate analyses to explore their relative importance in explaining large‐scale variation in salt marsh plant community structure.

Results

Across latitude, marshes were dominated by distinct plant communities in different climate regions, especially at the extreme dry and wet latitudes. Intertidal plant species zonation was present in hyper‐arid and semi‐arid climates, but not in arid, humid and hyper‐humid climates. Latitudinal variation in low‐marsh plant communities (regularly flooded at high tide) was largely a function of precipitation, while at high marshes (never flooded at high tide) latitudinal variation was explained with precipitation, temperature, tidal cycles, soil salinity and disturbances.

Main conclusions

Salt marshes on the Pacific coast of South America belong to Dry Coast and Temperate biogeographic types. Salt marsh plant zonation varies across latitude, and is explained by climatic, tidal, edaphic and disturbance factors. These patterns appear to be mechanistically explained by extrapolating experimentally generated community assembly models and have implications for predicting responses to climate change.     

A comparison of Aedes vigilax larval population densities and associated vegetation categories in a coastal wetland,Northern Territory,Australia

Darwin's northern suburbs border an extensive coastal reed and upper mangrove wetland recognized as an important larval habitat for Aedes vigilax (Skuse), the northern salt marsh mosquito, an established vector for Ross River and Barmah Forest viruses and an appreciable pest species. We sought to identify the most important vegetation categories associated with Ae. vigilax breeding to maximize the efficiency of mosquito control efforts. Using a generalized linear model with negative binominal distribution and log link, this study compares larval densities, determined by focused dipping, between 13 discernable vegetation categories. The incidence rate ratios (RR) generated can be used to compare the magnitude of larval densities for each vegetation category, compared with the reference category. Aedes vigilax larval densities were almost ten times greater in artificial drainage areas (RR=9.82), followed by tide‐affected reticulate (Sporobolus/Xerochloa) areas (RR=8.15), then Schoenoplectus/mangroves (RR=2.29), compared with the reference vegetation category “lower mangroves.” Furthermore, larval densities were highest in May, due to tidal inundation, for drainage areas and tide‐affected reticulates (RR=12.2, 11.7, respectively) compared with March, the reference month. Thus, to maximize the efficiency of aerial salt marsh mosquito control operations in this wetland, larval control is best accomplished by concentrating on drains, Schoenoplectus/mangroves, and tide‐affected reticulate areas, commencing early after the wet season. These results should apply to other areas of salt marsh mosquito breeding across northern Australia.     

Mangrove expansion and salt marsh decline at mangrove poleward limits

Mangroves are species of halophytic intertidal trees and shrubs derived from tropical genera and are likely delimited in latitudinal range by varying sensitivity to cold. There is now sufficient evidence that mangrove species have proliferated at or near their poleward limits on at least five continents over the past half century, at the expense of salt marsh. Avicennia is the most cold‐tolerant genus worldwide, and is the subject of most of the observed changes. Avicennia germinans has extended in range along the USA Atlantic coast and expanded into salt marsh as a consequence of lower frost frequency and intensity in the southern USA. The genus has also expanded into salt marsh at its southern limit in Peru, and on the Pacific coast of Mexico. Mangroves of several species have expanded in extent and replaced salt marsh where protected within mangrove reserves in Guangdong Province, China. In south‐eastern Australia, the expansion of Avicennia marina into salt marshes is now well documented, and Rhizophora stylosa has extended its range southward, while showing strong population growth within estuaries along its southern limits in northern New South Wales. Avicennia marina has extended its range southwards in South Africa. The changes are consistent with the poleward extension of temperature thresholds coincident with sea‐level rise, although the specific mechanism of range extension might be complicated by limitations on dispersal or other factors. The shift from salt marsh to mangrove dominance on subtropical and temperate shorelines has important implications for ecological structure, function, and global change adaptation.     

Jump‐starting coastal wetland restoration: a comparison of marsh and mangrove foundation species

During coastal wetland restoration, foundation plant species are critical in creating habitat, modulating ecosystem functions, and supporting ecological communities. Following initial hydrologic restoration, foundation plant species can help stabilize sediments and jump‐start ecosystem development. Different foundation species, however, have different traits and environmental tolerances. To understand how these traits and tolerances impact restoration trajectories, there is a need for comparative studies among foundation species. In subtropical and tropical climates, coastal wetland restoration practitioners can sometimes choose between salt marsh and/or mangrove foundation species. Here, we compared the early life history traits and environmental tolerances of two foundation species: (1) a salt marsh grass (Spartina alterniflora) and (2) a mangrove tree (Avicennia germinans). In an 18‐month study of a recently restored coastal wetland in southeastern Louisiana (USA), we examined growth and survival along an elevation gradient and compared expansion and recruitment rates. We found that the rapid growth, expansion, and recruitment rates of the salt marsh grass make it a better species for quickly establishing ecological structure at suitable elevations. The slower growth, limited expansion, and lower recruitment of the mangrove species show its restricted capacity for immediate structural restoration, especially in areas where it co‐occurs with perennial salt marsh species. Our findings suggest that the structural attributes needed in recently restored areas can be achieved sooner using fast‐growing foundation species. Following salt marsh grass establishment, mangroves can then be used to further assist ecosystem development. This work highlights how appropriate foundation species can help jump‐start ecosystem development to meet restoration objectives.     

红树林植被对大型底栖动物群落的影响

大型底栖动物是红树林生态系统的重要组成部分,从红树林大型底栖动物种类、红树林与其周边生境大型底栖动物群落的比较,以及生境变化对动物群落的影响等方面阐述了红树林植被与大型底栖动物群落的关系.从物种数量上看,软体动物和甲壳类动物构成了红树林大型底栖动物的主要部分.影响大型底栖动物分布的环境因素包括海水盐度、潮位和土壤特性等,但在小范围区域,林内动物的分布更多地与红树林植被特性和潮位有关.因此,由于红树林植被破坏或者恢复引起的生境变化,将导致大型底栖动物群落和常见物种种群的变化,尤其对底上动物影响明显;随着人工恢复红树林的发育,林内底栖动物的多样性相应增加,优势种也发生变化.相比位于相同潮位的无植被滩涂,红树林可促进潮间带生物多样性.     

Role of biotic interactions and physical factors in determining the distribution of marsh species along an estuarine salinity gradient

Understanding the mechanisms that shape plant distribution patterns is a major goal in ecology. We investigated the role of biotic interactions (competition and facilitation) and abiotic factors in creating horizontal plant zonation along salinity gradients in the Elbe estuary. We conducted reciprocal transplant experiments with four dominant species from salt and tidal freshwater marshes at two tidal elevations. Ten individuals of each species were transplanted as sods to the opposing marsh type and within their native marsh (two sites each). Transplants were placed at the centre of 9‐m² plots along a line parallel to the river bank. In order to disentangle abiotic and biotic influences, we set up plots with and without neighbouring vegetation, resulting in five replicates per site. Freshwater species (Bolboschoenus maritimus and Phragmites australis) transplanted to salt marshes performed poorly regardless of whether neighbouring vegetation was present or not, although 50–70% of the transplants did survive. Growth of Phragmites transplants was impaired also by competition in freshwater marshes. Salt marsh species (Spartina anglica and Puccinellia maritima) had extremely low biomass when transplanted to freshwater marshes and 80–100% died in the presence of neighbours. Without neighbours, biomass of salt marsh species in freshwater marshes was similar to or higher than that in salt marshes. Our results indicate that salt marsh species are precluded from freshwater marshes by competition, whereas freshwater species are excluded from salt marshes by physical stress. Thus, our study provides the first experimental evidence from a European estuary for the general theory that species boundaries along environmental gradients are determined by physical factors towards the harsh end and by competitive ability towards the benign end of the gradient. We generally found no significant impact of competition in salt marshes, indicating a shift in the importance of competition along the estuarine gradient.     

Where temperate meets tropical: multi-factorial effects of elevated CO2, nitrogen enrichment, and competition on a mangrove-salt marsh community

Our understanding of how elevated CO₂ and interactions with other factors will affect coastal plant communities is limited. Such information is particularly needed for transitional communities where major vegetation types converge. Tropical mangroves (Avicennia germinans) intergrade with temperate salt marshes (Spartina alterniflora) in the northern Gulf of Mexico, and this transitional community represents an important experimental system to test hypotheses about global change impacts on critical ecosystems. We examined the responses of A. germinans (C₃) and S. alterniflora (C₄), grown in monoculture and mixture in mesocosms for 18 months, to interactive effects of atmospheric CO₂ and pore water nitrogen (N) concentrations typical of these marshes. A. germinans, grown without competition from S. alterniflora, increased final biomass (35%) under elevated CO₂ treatment and higher N availability. Growth of A. germinans was severely curtailed, however, when grown in mixture with S. alterniflora, and enrichment with CO₂ and N could not reverse this growth suppression. A field experiment using mangrove seedlings produced by CO₂‐ and N‐enriched trees confirmed that competition from S. alterniflora suppressed growth under natural conditions and further showed that herbivory greatly reduced survival of all seedlings. Thus, mangroves will not supplant marsh vegetation due to elevated CO₂ alone, but instead will require changes in climate, environmental stress, or disturbance to alter the competitive balance between these species. However, where competition and herbivory are low, elevated CO₂ may accelerate mangrove transition from the seedling to sapling stage and also increase above‐ and belowground production of existing mangrove stands, particularly in combination with higher soil N.     

Oceanographic anomalies and sea‐level rise drive mangroves inland in the Pacific coast of Mexico

Question: Although mangrove forests are generally regarded as highly threatened, some studies have shown that mangrove canopies in the Pacific coast of Mexico have been increasing in recent decades. We investigated the possible causes driving this reported mangrove expansion. Location: The mangrove lagoons of Magdalena Bay in Baja California, Mexico. Methods: We used 50‐year‐old aerial photographs and 24‐year‐old satellite images to compare long‐term vegetation change, surveyed a coastal vegetation transect to analyse flooding levels, compiled six decades of tidal and oceanographic information, as well as hurricane data to analyse changes in storm frequency or sea‐level conditions, and used isotopic analysis to date the age of trees along the gradient. Results: A significant increase in mangrove cover has occurred in backwaters of the lagoons during the last 40 years, and especially during the El Niño anomalies of the 1980s and 1990s, while at the same time the mangrove fringe has been receding. Conclusions: The observed change can be attributed to the combined action of the warm surface waters of El Niño events and sea‐level rise. Jointly, these two effects are sufficient to flood large areas of previously non‐flooded salt flats, dispersing mangrove seedlings inland. The inland expansion of mangroves, however, does not ease conservation concerns, as it is the seaward fringes, and not the inland margins, that provide the most valuable environmental services for fisheries and coastal protection.     

Environmental drivers in mangrove establishment and early development: A review

Mangroves have a global distribution within coastal tropical and subtropical climates, and have even expanded to some temperate locales. Where they do occur, mangroves provide a plethora of goods and services, ranging from coastal protection from storms and erosion to direct income for human societies. The mangrove literature has become rather voluminous, prompting many subdisciplines within a field that earlier in the 20th century received little focus. Much of this research has become diffuse by sheer numbers, requiring detailed syntheses to make research results widely available to resource managers. In this review, we take an inclusive approach in focusing on eco-physiological and growth constraints to the establishment and early development of mangrove seedlings in the intertidal zone. This is a critical life stage for mangroves, i.e., the period between dispersal and recruitment to the sapling stage. We begin with some of the research that has set the precedent for seedling-level eco-physiological research in mangroves, and then we focus on recent advances (circa. 1995 to present) in our understanding of temperature, carbon dioxide, salinity, light, nutrient, flooding, and specific biotic influences on seedling survival and growth. As such, we take a new approach in describing seedling response to global factors (e.g., temperature) along with site-specific factors (e.g., salinity). All variables will strongly influence the future of seedling dynamics in ways perhaps not yet documented in mature forests. Furthermore, understanding how different mangrove species can respond to global factors and regional influences is useful for diagnosing observed mortality within mangrove wetlands, managed or natural. This review provides an updated eco-physiological knowledge base for future research and reforestation activity, and for understanding important links among climate change, local physico-chemical condition, and establishment and early growth of mangrove seedlings.     

人工红树林幼林藤壶危害及防治研究进展

随着近年来红树林恢复性造林面积的扩大,海洋污损生物藤壶对红树林幼林的危害问题日益突出.文中综述了藤壶附着的生物化学、藤壶在红树林附着的生态学、藤壶对人工红树林幼林的危害和国内所采用的化学药物防治措施等方面的研究进展,以及今后的研究方向.藤壶在红树林的附着和分布模式受海水盐度、浸淹深度、林分郁闭度、水文条件等环境因素和生物因素的影响.而藤壶胶粘蛋白的氨基酸组成、一维结构,胶粘蛋白在水下的交联、组装和胶粘的过程与机制,以及藤壶危害红树幼苗的机制和危害权重尚需要深入探讨.研究红树植物对藤壶附着的响应和长期适应机制将为藤壶的防治提供更多的启示.     

Seventy years of continuous encroachment substantially increases ‘blue carbon’ capacity as mangroves replace intertidal salt marshes

Shifts in ecosystem structure have been observed over recent decades as woody plants encroach upon grasslands and wetlands globally. The migration of mangrove forests into salt marsh ecosystems is one such shift which could have important implications for global ‘blue carbon’ stocks. To date, attempts to quantify changes in ecosystem function are essentially constrained to climate‐mediated pulses (30 years or less) of encroachment occurring at the thermal limits of mangroves. In this study, we track the continuous, lateral encroachment of mangroves into two south‐eastern Australian salt marshes over a period of 70 years and quantify corresponding changes in biomass and belowground C stores. Substantial increases in biomass and belowground C stores have resulted as mangroves replaced salt marsh at both marine and estuarine sites. After 30 years, aboveground biomass was significantly higher than salt marsh, with biomass continuing to increase with mangrove age. Biomass increased at the mesohaline river site by 130 ± 18 Mg biomass km^?2 yr^?1 (mean ± SE), a 2.5 times higher rate than the marine embayment site (52 ± 10 Mg biomass km^?2 yr^?1), suggesting local constraints on biomass production. At both sites, and across all vegetation categories, belowground C considerably outweighed aboveground biomass stocks, with belowground C stocks increasing at up to 230 ± 62 Mg C km^?2 yr^?1 (± SE) as mangrove forests developed. Over the past 70 years, we estimate mangrove encroachment may have already enhanced intertidal biomass by up to 283 097 Mg and belowground C stocks by over 500 000 Mg in the state of New South Wales alone. Under changing climatic conditions and rising sea levels, global blue carbon storage may be enhanced as mangrove encroachment becomes more widespread, thereby countering global warming.     

Biotic interactions influence the projected distribution of a specialist mammal under climate change

Aim

To measure the effects of including biotic interactions on climate‐based species distribution models (SDMs) used to predict distribution shifts under climate change. We evaluated the performance of distribution models for an endangered marsupial, the northern bettong (Bettongia tropica), comparing models that used only climate variables with models that also took into account biotic interactions.

Location

North‐east Queensland, Australia.

Methods

We developed separate climate‐based distribution models for the northern bettong, its two main resources and a competitor species. We then constructed models for the northern bettong by including climate suitability estimates for the resources and competitor as additional predictor variables to make climate + resource and climate + resource + competition models. We projected these models onto seven future climate scenarios and compared predictions of northern bettong distribution made by these differently structured models, using a ‘global’ metric, the I similarity statistic, to measure overlap in distribution and a ‘local’ metric to identify where predictions differed significantly.

Results

Inclusion of food resource biotic interactions improved model performance. Over moderate climate changes, up to 3.0 °C of warming, the climate‐only model for the northern bettong gave similar predictions of distribution to the more complex models including interactions, with differences only at the margins of predicted distributions. For climate changes beyond 3.0 °C, model predictions diverged significantly. The interactive model predicted less contraction of distribution than the simpler climate‐only model.

Main conclusions

Distribution models that account for interactions with other species, in particular direct resources, improve model predictions in the present‐day climate. For larger climate changes, shifts in distribution of interacting species cause predictions of interactive models to diverge from climate‐only models. Incorporating interactions with other species in SDMs may be needed for long‐term prediction of changes in distribution of species under climate change, particularly for specialized species strongly dependent on a small number of biotic interactions.     

Review of the ecosystem service implications of mangrove encroachment into salt marshes

Salt marsh and mangrove have been recognized as being among the most valuable ecosystem types globally in terms of their supply of ecosystem services and support for human livelihoods. These coastal ecosystems are also susceptible to the impacts of climate change and rising sea levels, with evidence of global shifts in the distribution of mangroves, including encroachment into salt marshes. The encroachment of woody mangrove shrubs and trees into herbaceous salt marshes may represent a substantial change in ecosystem structure, although resulting impacts on ecosystem functions and service provisions are largely unknown. In this review, we assess changes in ecosystem services associated with mangrove encroachment. While there is quantitative evidence to suggest that mangrove encroachment may enhance carbon storage and the capacity of a wetland to increase surface elevation in response to sea‐level rise, for most services there has been no direct assessment of encroachment impact. On the basis of current understanding of ecosystem structure and function, we theorize that mangrove encroachment may increase nutrient storage and improve storm protection, but cause declines in habitat availability for fauna requiring open vegetation structure (such as migratory birds and foraging bats) as well as the recreational and cultural activities associated with this fauna (e.g., birdwatching and/or hunting). Changes to provisional services such as fisheries productivity and cultural services are likely to be site specific and dependent on the species involved. We discuss the need for explicit experimental testing of the effects of encroachment on ecosystem services in order to address key knowledge gaps, and present an overview of the options available to coastal resource managers during a time of environmental change.     

Integrating physiological threshold experiments with climate modeling to project mangrove species’ range expansion

Predictions of climate‐related shifts in species ranges have largely been based on correlative models. Due to limitations of these models, there is a need for more integration of experimental approaches when studying impacts of climate change on species distributions. Here, we used controlled experiments to identify physiological thresholds that control poleward range limits of three species of mangroves found in North America. We found that all three species exhibited a threshold response to extreme cold, but freeze tolerance thresholds varied among species. From these experiments, we developed a climate metric, freeze degree days (FDD), which incorporates both the intensity and the frequency of freezes. When included in distribution models, FDD accurately predicted mangrove presence/absence. Using 28 years of satellite imagery, we linked FDD to observed changes in mangrove abundance in Florida, further exemplifying the importance of extreme cold. We then used downscaled climate projections of FDD to project that these range limits will move northward by 2.2–3.2 km yr^?1 over the next 50 years.     

The Southeast Saline Everglades revisited: 50 years of coastal vegetation change

Abstract. We examined the vegetation of the Southeast Saline Everglades (SESE), where water management and sea level rise have been important ecological forces during the last 50 years. Marshes within the SESE were arranged in well‐defined compositional zones parallel to the coast, with mangrove‐dominated shrub communities near the coast giving way to graminoid‐mangrove mixtures, and then Cladium marsh. The compositional gradient was accompanied by an interiorward decrease in total aboveground biomass, and increases in leaf area index and periphyton biomass. Since the mid‐1940s, the boundary of the mixed graminoid‐mangrove and Cladium communities shifted inland by 3.3 km. The interior boundary of a low‐productivity zone appearing white on both black‐and‐white and CIR photos moved inland by 1.5 km on average. A smaller shift in this ‘white zone’ was observed in an area receiving fresh water overflow through gaps in one of the SESE canals, while greater change occurred in areas cut off from upstream water sources by roads or levees. These large‐scale vegetation dynamics are apparently the combined result of sea level rise ‐ ca. 10 cm since 1940 ‐ and water management practices in the SESE.