Climate warming feedback from mountain birch forest expansion: reduced albedo dominates carbon uptake

Expanding high‐elevation and high‐latitude forest has contrasting climate feedbacks through carbon sequestration (cooling) and reduced surface reflectance (warming), which are yet poorly quantified. Here, we present an empirically based projection of mountain birch forest expansion in south‐central Norway under climate change and absence of land use. Climate effects of carbon sequestration and albedo change are compared using four emission metrics. Forest expansion was modeled for a projected 2.6 °C increase in summer temperature in 2100, with associated reduced snow cover. We find that the current (year 2000) forest line of the region is circa 100 m lower than its climatic potential due to land‐use history. In the future scenarios, forest cover increased from 12% to 27% between 2000 and 2100, resulting in a 59% increase in biomass carbon storage and an albedo change from 0.46 to 0.30. Forest expansion in 2100 was behind its climatic potential, forest migration rates being the primary limiting factor. In 2100, the warming caused by lower albedo from expanding forest was 10 to 17 times stronger than the cooling effect from carbon sequestration for all emission metrics considered. Reduced snow cover further exacerbated the net warming feedback. The warming effect is considerably stronger than previously reported for boreal forest cover, because of the typically low biomass density in mountain forests and the large changes in albedo of snow‐covered tundra areas. The positive climate feedback of high‐latitude and high‐elevation expanding forests with seasonal snow cover exceeds those of afforestation at lower elevation, and calls for further attention of both modelers and empiricists. The inclusion and upscaling of these climate feedbacks from mountain forests into global models is warranted to assess the potential global impacts.     

Thermal niche predicts tolerance to habitat conversion in tropical amphibians and reptiles

Habitat conversion is a major driver of the biodiversity crisis, yet why some species undergo local extinction while others thrive under novel conditions remains unclear. We suggest that focusing on species' niches, rather than traits, may provide the predictive power needed to forecast biodiversity change. We first examine two Neotropical frog congeners with drastically different affinities to deforestation and document how thermal niche explains deforestation tolerance. The more deforestation‐tolerant species is associated with warmer macroclimates across Costa Rica, and warmer microclimates within landscapes. Further, in laboratory experiments, the more deforestation‐tolerant species has critical thermal limits, and a jumping performance optimum, shifted ~2 °C warmer than those of the more forest‐affiliated species, corresponding to the ~3 °C difference in daytime maximum temperature that these species experience between habitats. Crucially, neither species strictly specializes on either habitat – instead habitat use is governed by regional environmental temperature. Both species track temperature along an elevational gradient, and shift their habitat use from cooler forest at lower elevations to warmer deforested pastures upslope. To generalize these conclusions, we expand our analysis to the entire mid‐elevational herpetological community of southern Costa Rica. We assess the climatological affinities of 33 amphibian and reptile species, showing that across both taxonomic classes, thermal niche predicts presence in deforested habitat as well as or better than many commonly used traits. These data suggest that warm‐adapted species carry a significant survival advantage amidst the synergistic impacts of land‐use conversion and climate change.     

Evolutionary response to global change: Climate and land use interact to shape color polymorphism in a woodland salamander

Evolutionary change has been demonstrated to occur rapidly in human‐modified systems, yet understanding how multiple components of global change interact to affect adaptive evolution remains a critical knowledge gap. Climate change is predicted to impose directional selection on traits to reduce thermal stress, but the strength of directional selection may be mediated by changes in the thermal environment driven by land use. We examined how regional climatic conditions and land use interact to affect genetically based color polymorphism in the eastern red‐backed salamander (Plethodon cinereus). P. cinereus is a woodland salamander with two primary discrete color morphs (striped, unstriped) that have been associated with macroclimatic conditions. Striped individuals are most common in colder regions, but morph frequencies can be variable within climate zones. We used path analysis to analyze morph frequencies among 238,591 individual salamanders across 1,170 sites in North America. Frequency of striped individuals was positively related to forest cover in populations occurring in warmer regions (>7°C annually), a relationship that was weak to nonexistent in populations located in colder regions (≤7°C annually). Our results suggest that directional selection imposed by climate warming at a regional scale may be amplified by forest loss and suppressed by forest persistence, with a mediating effect of land use that varies geographically. Our work highlights how the complex interaction of selection pressures imposed by different components of global change may lead to divergent evolutionary trajectories among populations.     

A pantropical analysis of the impacts of forest degradation and conversion on local temperature

Temperature is a core component of a species' fundamental niche. At the fine scale over which most organisms experience climate (mm to ha), temperature depends upon the amount of radiation reaching the Earth's surface, which is principally governed by vegetation. Tropical regions have undergone widespread and extreme changes to vegetation, particularly through the degradation and conversion of rainforests. As most terrestrial biodiversity is in the tropics, and many of these species possess narrow thermal limits, it is important to identify local thermal impacts of rainforest degradation and conversion. We collected pantropical, site‐level (<1 ha) temperature data from the literature to quantify impacts of land‐use change on local temperatures, and to examine whether this relationship differed aboveground relative to belowground and between wet and dry seasons. We found that local temperature in our sample sites was higher than primary forest in all human‐impacted land‐use types (N = 113,894 daytime temperature measurements from 25 studies). Warming was pronounced following conversion of forest to agricultural land (minimum +1.6°C, maximum +13.6°C), but minimal and nonsignificant when compared to forest degradation (e.g., by selective logging; minimum +1°C, maximum +1.1°C). The effect was buffered belowground (minimum buffering 0°C, maximum buffering 11.4°C), whereas seasonality had minimal impact (maximum buffering 1.9°C). We conclude that forest‐dependent species that persist following conversion of rainforest have experienced substantial local warming. Deforestation pushes these species closer to their thermal limits, making it more likely that compounding effects of future perturbations, such as severe droughts and global warming, will exceed species' tolerances. By contrast, degraded forests and belowground habitats may provide important refugia for thermally restricted species in landscapes dominated by agricultural land.     

Climate‐induced warming imposes a threat to north European spring ecosystems

Interest in climate change effects on groundwater has increased dramatically during the last decade. The mechanisms of climate‐related groundwater depletion have been thoroughly reviewed, but the influence of global warming on groundwater‐dependent ecosystems (GDEs) remains poorly known. Here we report long‐term water temperature trends in 66 northern European cold‐water springs. A vast majority of the springs (82%) exhibited a significant increase in water temperature during 1968–2012. Mean spring water temperatures were closely related to regional air temperature and global radiative forcing of the corresponding year. Based on three alternative climate scenarios representing low (RCP2.6), intermediate (RCP6) and high‐emission scenarios (RCP8.5), we estimate that increase in mean spring water temperature in the region is likely to range from 0.67 °C (RCP2.6) to 5.94 °C (RCP8.5) by 2086. According to the worst‐case scenario, water temperature of these originally cold‐water ecosystems (regional mean in the late 1970s: 4.7 °C) may exceed 12 °C by the end of this century. We used bryophyte and macroinvertebrate species data from Finnish springs and spring‐fed streams to assess ecological impacts of the predicted warming. An increase in spring water temperature by several degrees will likely have substantial biodiversity impacts, causing regional extinction of native, cold‐stenothermal spring specialists, whereas species diversity of headwater generalists is likely to increase. Even a slight (by 1 °C) increase in water temperature may eliminate endemic spring species, thus altering bryophyte and macroinvertebrate assemblages of spring‐fed streams. Climate change‐induced warming of northern regions may thus alter species composition of the spring biota and cause regional homogenization of biodiversity in headwater ecosystems.     

Observation of irrigation‐induced climate change in the Midwest United States

Irrigated agriculture alters near‐surface temperature and humidity, which may mask global climate change at the regional scale. However, observational studies of irrigation‐induced climate change are lacking in temperate, humid regions throughout North America and Europe. Despite unknown climate impacts, irrigated agriculture is expanding in the Midwest United States, where unconfined aquifers provide groundwater to support crop production on coarse soils. This is the first study in the Midwest United States to observe and quantify differences in regional climate associated with irrigated agricultural conversion from forests and rainfed agriculture. To this end, we established a 60 km transect consisting of 28 stations across varying land uses and monitored surface air temperature and relative humidity for 31 months in the Wisconsin Central Sands region. We used a novel approach to quantify irrigated land use in both space and time with a database containing monthly groundwater withdrawal estimates by parcel for the state of Wisconsin. Irrigated agriculture decreased maximum temperatures and increased minimum temperatures, thus shrinking the diurnal temperature range (DTR) by an average of 3°C. Irrigated agriculture also decreased the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) by an average of 0.10 kPa. Irrigated agriculture significantly decreased evaporative demand for 25% and 66% of study days compared to rainfed agriculture and forest, respectively. Differences in VPD across the land‐use gradient were highest (0.21 kPa) during the peak of the growing season, while differences in DTR were comparable year‐round. Interannual variability in temperature had greater impacts on differences in DTR and VPD across the land‐use gradient than interannual variability in precipitation. These regional climate changes must be considered together with increased greenhouse gas emissions, changes to groundwater quality, and surface water degradation when evaluating the costs and benefits of groundwater‐sourced irrigation expansion in the Midwest United States and similar regions around the world.     

Risky future for Mediterranean forests unless they undergo extreme carbon fertilization

Forest performance is challenged by climate change but higher atmospheric [CO₂] (c_a) could help trees mitigate the negative effect of enhanced water stress. Forest projections using data assimilation with mechanistic models are a valuable tool to assess forest performance. Firstly, we used dendrochronological data from 12 Mediterranean tree species (six conifers and six broadleaves) to calibrate a process‐based vegetation model at 77 sites. Secondly, we conducted simulations of gross primary production (GPP) and radial growth using an ensemble of climate projections for the period 2010–2100 for the high‐emission RCP8.5 and low‐emission RCP2.6 scenarios. GPP and growth projections were simulated using climatic data from the two RCPs combined with (i) expected c_a; (ii) constant c_a = 390 ppm, to test a purely climate‐driven performance excluding compensation from carbon fertilization. The model accurately mimicked the growth trends since the 1950s when, despite increasing c_a, enhanced evaporative demands precluded a global net positive effect on growth. Modeled annual growth and GPP showed similar long‐term trends. Under RCP2.6 (i.e., temperatures below +2 °C with respect to preindustrial values), the forests showed resistance to future climate (as expressed by non‐negative trends in growth and GPP) except for some coniferous sites. Using exponentially growing c_a and climate as from RCP8.5, carbon fertilization overrode the negative effect of the highly constraining climatic conditions under that scenario. This effect was particularly evident above 500 ppm (which is already over +2 °C), which seems unrealistic and likely reflects model miss‐performance at high c_a above the calibration range. Thus, forest projections under RCP8.5 preventing carbon fertilization displayed very negative forest performance at the regional scale. This suggests that most of western Mediterranean forests would successfully acclimate to the coldest climate change scenario but be vulnerable to a climate warmer than +2 °C unless the trees developed an exaggerated fertilization response to [CO₂].     

Microbial responses to warming enhance soil carbon loss following translocation across a tropical forest elevation gradient

Tropical soils contain huge carbon stocks, which climate warming is projected to reduce by stimulating organic matter decomposition, creating a positive feedback that will promote further warming. Models predict that the loss of carbon from warming soils will be mediated by microbial physiology, but no empirical data are available on the response of soil carbon and microbial physiology to warming in tropical forests, which dominate the terrestrial carbon cycle. Here we show that warming caused a considerable loss of soil carbon that was enhanced by associated changes in microbial physiology. By translocating soils across a 3000 m elevation gradient in tropical forest, equivalent to a temperature change of ± 15 °C, we found that soil carbon declined over 5 years by 4% in response to each 1 °C increase in temperature. The total loss of carbon was related to its original quantity and lability, and was enhanced by changes in microbial physiology including increased microbial carbon‐use‐efficiency, shifts in community composition towards microbial taxa associated with warmer temperatures, and increased activity of hydrolytic enzymes. These findings suggest that microbial feedbacks will cause considerable loss of carbon from tropical forest soils in response to predicted climatic warming this century.     

Assessing forest vulnerability to climate warming using a process‐based model of tree growth: bad prospects for rear‐edges

Growth models can be used to assess forest vulnerability to climate warming. If global warming amplifies water deficit in drought‐prone areas, tree populations located at the driest and southernmost distribution limits (rear‐edges) should be particularly threatened. Here, we address these statements by analyzing and projecting growth responses to climate of three major tree species (silver fir, Abies alba; Scots pine, Pinus sylvestris; and mountain pine, Pinus uncinata) in mountainous areas of NE Spain. This region is subjected to Mediterranean continental conditions, it encompasses wide climatic, topographic and environmental gradients, and, more importantly, it includes rear‐edges of the continuous distributions of these tree species. We used tree‐ring width data from a network of 110 forests in combination with the process‐based Vaganov–Shashkin‐Lite growth model and climate–growth analyses to forecast changes in tree growth during the 21st century. Climatic projections were based on four ensembles CO₂ emission scenarios. Warm and dry conditions during the growing season constrain silver fir and Scots pine growth, particularly at the species rear‐edge. By contrast, growth of high‐elevation mountain pine forests is enhanced by climate warming. The emission scenario (RCP 8.5) corresponding to the most pronounced warming (+1.4 to 4.8 °C) forecasted mean growth reductions of ?10.7% and ?16.4% in silver fir and Scots pine, respectively, after 2050. This indicates that rising temperatures could amplify drought stress and thus constrain the growth of silver fir and Scots pine rear‐edge populations growing at xeric sites. Contrastingly, mountain pine growth is expected to increase by +12.5% due to a longer and warmer growing season. The projections of growth reduction in silver fir and Scots pine portend dieback and a contraction of their species distribution areas through potential local extinctions of the most vulnerable driest rear‐edge stands. Our modeling approach provides accessible tools to evaluate forest vulnerability to warmer conditions.     

Pollen viability of Euro‐Mediterranean orchids under different storage conditions: The possible effects of climate change

• The future impact of climate change and a warmer world is a matter of great concern. We therefore aimed to evaluate the effects of temperature on pollen viability and fruit set of Mediterranean orchids.
• The in vitro and controlled pollination experiments were performed to evaluate the ability of pollinia stored at lower and higher temperatures to germinate and produce fruits and seeds containing viable embryos.
• In all of the examined orchids, pollen stored at ?20 °C remained fully viable for up to 3 years, reducing its percentage germination from year 4 onwards. Pollinia stored at higher temperatures had a drastic reduction in vitality after 2 days at 41–44 °C, while pollinia stored at 47–50 °C did not show any pollen tube growth.
• The different levels of pollen viability duration among the examined orchids can be related to their peculiar reproductive biology and pollination ecology. The germinability of pollinia stored at lower temperatures for long periods suggests that orchid pollinia can be conserved ex situ. In contrast, higher temperatures can have harmful effects on the vitality of pollen and consequently on reproductive success of the plants. To our knowledge, this is the first report demonstrating the effects of global change on orchid pollen, and on pollen ability to tolerate, or not, higher air temperatures. Although vegetative reproduction allows orchids to survive a few consecutive warm years, higher temperatures for several consecutive years can have dramatic effects on reproductive success of orchids.

     

Higher temperatures enhance the effects of invasive sportfish on mountain zooplankton communities

1. Decades of introductions of exotic sportfish to mountain lakes around the world have impoverished them biologically, and this may be exacerbated by global warming. We assessed the current status of invasive salmonids and native zooplankton communities in 34 naturally fishless lakes along an elevational gradient, which served as an environmental proxy for the expected effects of climate change. 2. Our main goal was to explore how climate‐related variables influence the effects of stocked salmonids on the total biomass, species richness and taxonomic composition of zooplankton. We predicted that warmer conditions would dampen the negative predatory effects of exotic brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) on zooplankton communities because more temperate lakes contain a greater diversity of potentially tolerant species. 3. Instead, we discovered that the persistence of stocked brook trout in the warmer lakes significantly amplified total zooplankton biomass and species richness. In colder and deeper lakes, zooplankton were relatively unaffected by S. fontinalis, which however persisted better in alpine lakes than at lower elevations after stocking practices were halted over two decades ago. Warmer lake conditions and higher concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) were significant primary drivers of zooplankton species turnover, both favouring greater species diversity. 4. Our findings of an ecological surprise involving potential synergistic positive effects of climate warming and exotic trout on native zooplankton communities presents a conundrum for managers of certain national mountain parks. Present mandates to eradicate non‐native trout and return the mountain lakes to their naturally fishless state may conflict with efforts to conserve biodiversity under a rapidly changing climate.     

Altered climate leads to positive density‐dependent feedbacks in a tropical wet forest

Climate change is predicted to result in warmer and drier Neotropical forests relative to current conditions. Negative density‐dependent feedbacks, mediated by natural enemies, are key to maintaining the high diversity of tree species found in the tropics, yet we have little understanding of how projected changes in climate are likely to affect these critical controls. Over 3 years, we evaluated the effects of a natural drought and in situ experimental warming on density‐dependent feedbacks on seedling demography in a wet tropical forest in Puerto Rico. In the +4°C warming treatment, we found that seedling survival increased with increasing density of the same species (conspecific). These positive density‐dependent feedbacks were not associated with a decrease in aboveground natural enemy pressure. If positive density‐dependent feedbacks are not transient, the diversity of tropical wet forests, which may rely on negative density dependence to drive diversity, could decline in a future warmer, drier world.     

Factors influencing seedling emergence of three global invaders in greenhouses representing major eco‐regions of the world

• Successful germination and seedling emergence in new environments are crucial first steps in the life history of global plant invaders and thus play a key role in processes of range expansion.
• We examined the germination and seedling emergence success of three global plant invaders – Lupinus polyphyllus, Senecio inaequidens and Verbascum thapsus – in greenhouses and climate chambers under climate regimes corresponding to seven eco‐regions. Seed materials were collected from one non‐native population for L. polyphyllus and S. inaequidens, and from 12 populations for V. thapsus (six natives and six non‐natives).
• Experimental climates had significant effects on species responses. No species germinated in the dry (humidity ≤ 50%) and cool (≤ 5 °C) experimental climates. But all species germinated and emerged in two moderately cool (12–19 °C) and in three warm (24–27 °C) experimental climates. In general, V. thapsus showed higher fitness than S. inaequidens and L. polyphyllus. The climate of the seed source region influenced responses of native and non‐native populations of V. thapsus. Non‐native populations of V. thapsus, originating from the warmer seed source, showed higher performance in warm experimental climates and lower performance in moderately cool experimental climates compared to native populations. Responses of V. thapsus populations were also related to precipitation of the seed source region in moderately dry experimental climates.
• The warm, semi‐arid and humid experimental climates are suitable for the crucial first steps of invasion success for L. polyphyllus, S. inaequidens and V. thapsus. The species adaptation to its source region modified the responses of our studied plants under different experimental climates representing major eco‐regions of the world.

     

Short photoperiod reduces the temperature sensitivity of leaf‐out in saplings of Fagus sylvatica but not in horse chestnut

Leaf phenology is one of the most reliable bioindicators of ongoing global warming in temperate and boreal zones because it is highly sensitive to temperature variation. A large number of studies have reported advanced spring leaf‐out due to global warming, yet the temperature sensitivity of leaf‐out has significantly decreased in temperate deciduous tree species over the past three decades. One of the possible mechanisms is that photoperiod is limiting further advance to protect the leaves against potential damaging frosts. However, the “photoperiod limitation” hypothesis remains poorly investigated and experimentally tested. Here, we conducted a photoperiod‐ and temperature‐manipulation experiment in climate chambers on two common deciduous species in Europe: Fagus sylvatica (European beech, a typically late flushing species) and Aesculus hippocastanum (horse chestnut, a typically early flushing species). In agreement with previous studies, we found that the warming significantly advanced the leaf‐out dates by 4.3 and 3.7 days/°C for beech and horse chestnut saplings, respectively. However, shorter photoperiod significantly reduced the temperature sensitivity of beech only (3.0 days/°C) by substantially increasing the heat requirement to avoid leafing‐out too early. Interestingly, the photoperiod limitation only occurs below a certain daylength (photoperiod threshold) when the warming increased above 4°C for beech trees. In contrast, for chestnut, no photoperiod threshold was found even when the ambient air temperature was warmed by 5°C. Given the species‐specific photoperiod effect on leaf phenology, the sequence of the leaf‐out timing among forest tree species may change under future climate warming conditions. Nonphotoperiodic species may benefit from warmer springs by starting the growing season earlier than photoperiodic sensitive species, modifying forest ecosystem structure and functions, but this photoperiod limitation needs to be further investigated experimentally in numerous species.     

Phenological synchrony between eastern spruce budworm and its host trees increases with warmer temperatures in the boreal forest

Climate change is predicted to alter relationships between trophic levels by changing the phenology of interacting species. We tested whether synchrony between two critical phenological events, budburst of host species and larval emergence from diapause of eastern spruce budworm, increased at warmer temperatures in the boreal forest in northeastern Canada. Budburst was up to 4.6 ± 0.7 days earlier in balsam fir and up to 2.8 ± 0.8 days earlier in black spruce per degree increase in temperature, in naturally occurring microclimates. Larval emergence from diapause did not exhibit a similar response. Instead, larvae emerged once average ambient temperatures reached 10°C, regardless of differences in microclimate. Phenological synchrony increased with warmer microclimates, tightening the relationship between spruce budworm and its host species. Synchrony increased by up to 4.5 ± 0.7 days for balsam fir and up to 2.8 ± 0.8 days for black spruce per degree increase in temperature. Under a warmer climate, defoliation could potentially begin earlier in the season, in which case, damage on the primary host, balsam fir may increase. Black spruce, which escapes severe herbivory because of a 2‐week delay in budburst, would become more suitable as a resource for the spruce budworm. The northern boreal forest could become more vulnerable to outbreaks in the future.     

Climate change causes critical transitions and irreversible alterations of mountain forests

Mountain forests are at particular risk of climate change impacts due to their temperature limitation and high exposure to warming. At the same time, their complex topography may help to buffer the effects of climate change and create climate refugia. Whether climate change can lead to critical transitions of mountain forest ecosystems and whether such transitions are reversible remain incompletely understood. We investigated the resilience of forest composition and size structure to climate change, focusing on a mountain forest landscape in the Eastern Alps. Using the individual‐based forest landscape model iLand, we simulated ecosystem responses to a wide range of climatic changes (up to a 6°C increase in mean annual temperature and a 30% reduction in mean annual precipitation), testing for tipping points in vegetation size structure and composition under different topography scenarios. We found that at warming levels above +2°C a threshold was crossed, with the system tipping into an alternative state. The system shifted from a conifer‐dominated landscape characterized by large trees to a landscape dominated by smaller, predominantly broadleaved trees. Topographic complexity moderated climate change impacts, smoothing and delaying the transitions between alternative vegetation states. We subsequently reversed the simulated climate forcing to assess the ability of the landscape to recover from climate change impacts. The forest landscape showed hysteresis, particularly in scenarios with lower precipitation. At the same mean annual temperature, equilibrium vegetation size structure and species composition differed between warming and cooling trajectories. Here we show that even moderate warming corresponding to current policy targets could result in critical transitions of forest ecosystems and highlight the importance of topographic complexity as a buffering agent. Furthermore, our results show that overshooting ambitious climate mitigation targets could be dangerous, as ecological impacts can be irreversible at millennial time scales once a tipping point has been crossed.     

The capacity to cope with climate warming declines from temperate to tropical latitudes in two widely distributed Eucalyptus species

As rapid climate warming creates a mismatch between forest trees and their home environment, the ability of trees to cope with warming depends on their capacity to physiologically adjust to higher temperatures. In widespread species, individual trees in cooler home climates are hypothesized to more successfully acclimate to warming than their counterparts in warmer climates that may approach thermal limits. We tested this prediction with a climate‐shift experiment in widely distributed Eucalyptus tereticornis and E. grandis using provenances originating along a ~2500 km latitudinal transect (15.5–38.0°S) in eastern Australia. We grew 21 provenances in conditions approximating summer temperatures at seed origin and warmed temperatures (+3.5 °C) using a series of climate‐controlled glasshouse bays. The effects of +3.5 °C warming strongly depended on home climate. Cool‐origin provenances responded to warming through an increase in photosynthetic capacity and total leaf area, leading to enhanced growth of 20–60%. Warm‐origin provenances, however, responded to warming through a reduction in photosynthetic capacity and total leaf area, leading to reduced growth of approximately 10%. These results suggest that there is predictable intraspecific variation in the capacity of trees to respond to warming; cool‐origin taxa are likely to benefit from warming, while warm‐origin taxa may be negatively affected.     

Butterfly phenology in Mediterranean mountains using space‐for‐time substitution

Inferring species' responses to climate change in the absence of long‐term time series data is a challenge, but can be achieved by substituting space for time. For example, thermal elevational gradients represent suitable proxies to study phenological responses to warming. We used butterfly data from two Mediterranean mountain areas to test whether mean dates of appearance of communities and individual species show a delay with increasing altitude, and an accompanying shortening in the duration of flight periods. We found a 14‐day delay in the mean date of appearance per kilometer increase in altitude for butterfly communities overall, and an average 23‐day shift for 26 selected species, alongside average summer temperature lapse rates of 3°C per km. At higher elevations, there was a shortening of the flight period for the community of 3 days/km, with an 8.8‐day average decline per km for individual species. Rates of phenological delay differed significantly between the two mountain ranges, although this did not seem to result from the respective temperature lapse rates. These results suggest that climate warming could lead to advanced and lengthened flight periods for Mediterranean mountain butterfly communities. However, although multivoltine species showed the expected response of delayed and shortened flight periods at higher elevations, univoltine species showed more pronounced delays in terms of species appearance. Hence, while projections of overall community responses to climate change may benefit from space‐for‐time substitutions, understanding species‐specific responses to local features of habitat and climate may be needed to accurately predict the effects of climate change on phenology.     

Temperature and rainfall interact to control carbon cycling in tropical forests

Tropical forests dominate global terrestrial carbon (C) exchange, and recent droughts in the Amazon Basin have contributed to short‐term declines in terrestrial carbon dioxide uptake and storage. However, the effects of longer‐term climate variability on tropical forest carbon dynamics are still not well understood. We synthesised field data from more than 150 tropical forest sites to explore how climate regulates tropical forest aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and organic matter decomposition, and combined those data with two existing databases to explore climate – C relationships globally. While previous analyses have focused on the effects of either temperature or rainfall on ANPP, our results highlight the importance of interactions between temperature and rainfall on the C cycle. In cool forests (< 20 °C), high rainfall slowed rates of C cycling, but in warm tropical forests (> 20 °C) it consistently enhanced both ANPP and decomposition. At the global scale, our analysis showed an increase in ANPP with rainfall in relatively warm sites, inconsistent with declines in ANPP with rainfall reported previously. Overall, our results alter our understanding of climate – C cycle relationships, with high precipitation accelerating rates of C exchange with the atmosphere in the most productive biome on earth.     

Balance between climate change mitigation benefits and land use impacts of bioenergy: conservation implications for European birds

Both climate change and habitat modification exert serious pressure on biodiversity. Although climate change mitigation has been identified as an important strategy for biodiversity conservation, bioenergy remains a controversial mitigation action due to its potential negative ecological and socio-economic impacts which arise through habitat modification by land use change. While the debate continues, the separate or simultaneous impacts of both climate change and bioenergy on biodiversity have not yet been compared. We assess projected range shifts of 156 European bird species by 2050 under two alternative climate change trajectories: a baseline scenario, where the global mean temperature increases by 4 °C by the end of the century, and a 2 degrees scenario, where global concerted effort limits the temperature increase to below 2 °C. For the latter scenario, we also quantify the pressure exerted by increased cultivation of energy biomass as modelled by IMAGE2.4, an integrated land use model. The global bioenergy use in this scenario is in the lower end of the range of previously estimated sustainable potential. Under the assumptions of these scenarios, we find that the magnitude of range shifts due to climate change is far greater than the impact of land conversion to woody bioenergy plantations within the European Union, and that mitigation of climate change reduces the exposure experienced by species. However, we identified potential for local conservation conflict between priority areas for conservation and bioenergy production. These conflicts must be addressed by strict bioenergy sustainability criteria that acknowledge biodiversity conservation needs beyond existing protected areas and apply also to biomass imported from outside the European Union.