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1.
The Paris agreement on climate change requires rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. One important mitigation strategy, at least in the intermediate future, is the substitution of fossil fuels with bioenergy. However, using agriculture- and forest-derived biomass for energy has sparked controversy regarding both the climate mitigation potential and conflicts with biodiversity conservation. The urgency of the climate crisis calls for using forests for carbon sequestration and storage rather than for bioenergy, making agricultural biomass an attractive alternative for fossil energy substitution. However, this calls for comprehensive assessments of its sustainability in terms of consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem services. In this review, we provide a first holistic overview of the impacts on ecosystems of land-use changes from bioenergy crop production in temperate climates, by synthesizing results on both biodiversity and ecosystem service impacts. We found that bioenergy-related land-use changes can have both positive and negative effects on ecosystems, with original land use, bioenergy crop type and scale of bioenergy production being important moderators of impacts. Despite the risk of opportunity cost for food production, perennial crop cultivation on arable land had the lowest occurrence of negative impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Growing biomass for bioenergy on surplus land has been suggested as a way to alleviate competition with food production and biodiversity conservation, but our results demonstrate that utilizing marginal or abandoned land for bioenergy crop production cannot fully resolve these trade-offs. Furthermore, there is a lack of empirical studies of the biodiversity value of marginal and abandoned land, limiting our understanding of the sustainability implications of biomass cultivation on surplus land. We argue that future research and policies for bioenergy production must explicitly consider biodiversity and ecosystem services in combination to avoid potential trade-offs between the two and to ensure sustainable bioenergy production.  相似文献   

2.
    
The hope among policy-makers and scientists alike is that conservation strategies designed to protect biodiversity also provide direct benefits to people by protecting other vital ecosystem services. The few studies that have examined the delivery of ecosystem services by existing conservation efforts have concentrated on large, ‘wilderness’-style biodiversity reserves. However, such reserves are not realistic options for densely populated regions. Here, we provide the first analyses that compare representation of biodiversity and three other ecosystem services across several contrasting conservation strategies in a human-dominated landscape (England). We show that small protected areas and protected landscapes (restrictive zoning) deliver high carbon storage and biodiversity, while existing incentive payment (agri-environment) schemes target areas that offer little advantage over other parts of England in terms of biodiversity, carbon storage and agricultural production. A fourth ecosystem service—recreation—is under-represented by all three strategies. Our findings are encouraging as they illustrate that restrictive zoning can play a major role in protecting natural capital assets in densely populated regions. However, trade-offs exist even among the four ecosystem services we considered, suggesting that a portfolio of conservation and sustainability investments will be needed to deliver both biodiversity and the other ecosystem services demanded by society.  相似文献   

3.
    
There are posited links between the establishment of perennial bioenergy, such as short rotation coppice (SRC) willow and Miscanthus × giganteus, on low carbon soils and enhanced soil C sequestration. Sequestration provides additional climate mitigation, however, few studies have explored impacts on soil C stocks of bioenergy crop removal; thus, the permanence of any sequestered C is unclear. This uncertainty has led some authors to question the handling of soil C stocks with carbon accounting, for example, through life cycle assessments. Here, we provide additional data for this debate, reporting on the soil C impacts of the reversion (removal and return) to arable cropping of commercial SRC willow and Miscanthus across four sites in the UK, two for each bioenergy crop, with eight reversions nested within these sites. Using a paired‐site approach, soil C stocks (0–1 m) were compared between 3 and 7 years after bioenergy crop removal. Impacts on soil C stocks varied, ranging from an increase of 70.16 ± 10.81 Mg C/ha 7 years after reversion of SRC willow to a decrease of 33.38 ± 5.33 Mg C/ha 3 years after reversion of Miscanthus compared to paired arable land. The implications for carbon accounting will depend on the method used to allocate this stock change between current and past land use. However, with published life cycle assessment values for the lifetime C reduction provided by these crops ranging from 29.50 to 138.55 Mg C/ha, the magnitude of these changes in stock are significant. We discuss the potential underlying mechanisms driving variability in soil C stock change, including the age of bioenergy crop at removal, removal methods, and differences in the recalcitrant of the crop residues, and highlight the need to design management methods to limit negative outcomes.  相似文献   

4.
    
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5.
    
In the UK and other temperate regions, short rotation coppice (SRC) and Miscanthus x giganteus (Miscanthus) are two of the leading ‘second‐generation’ bioenergy crops. Grown specifically as a low‐carbon (C) fossil fuel replacement, calculations of the climate mitigation provided by these bioenergy crops rely on accurate data. There are concerns that uncertainty about impacts on soil C stocks of transitions from current agricultural land use to these bioenergy crops could lead to either an under‐ or overestimate of their climate mitigation potential. Here, for locations across mainland Great Britain (GB), a paired‐site approach and a combination of 30‐cm‐ and 1‐m‐deep soil sampling were used to quantify impacts of bioenergy land‐use transitions on soil C stocks in 41 commercial land‐use transitions; 12 arable to SRC, 9 grasslands to SRC, 11 arable to Miscanthus and 9 grasslands to Miscanthus. Mean soil C stocks were lower under both bioenergy crops than under the grassland controls but only significant at 0–30 cm. Mean soil C stocks at 0–30 cm were 33.55 ± 7.52 Mg C ha?1 and 26.83 ± 8.08 Mg C ha?1 lower under SRC (P = 0.004) and Miscanthus plantations (P = 0.001), respectively. Differences between bioenergy crops and arable controls were not significant in either the 30‐cm or 1‐m soil cores and smaller than for transitions from grassland. No correlation was detected between change in soil C stock and bioenergy crop age (time since establishment) or soil texture. Change in soil C stock was, however, negatively correlated with the soil C stock in the original land use. We suggest, therefore, that selection of sites for bioenergy crop establishment with lower soil C stocks, most often under arable land use, is the most likely to result in increased soil C stocks.  相似文献   

6.
    
The extensive land use conversion expected to occur to meet demands for bioenergy feedstock production will likely have widespread impacts on agroecosystem biodiversity and ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration. Although arthropod detritivores are known to contribute to litter decomposition and thus energy flow and nutrient cycling in many plant communities, their importance in bioenergy feedstock communities has not yet been assessed. We undertook an experimental study quantifying rates of litter mass loss and nutrient cycling in the presence and absence of these organisms in three bioenergy feedstock crops—miscanthus (Miscanthus x giganteus), switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), and a planted prairie community. Overall arthropod abundance and litter decomposition rates were similar in all three communities. Despite effective reduction of arthropods in experimental plots via insecticide application, litter decomposition rates, inorganic nitrogen leaching, and carbon–nitrogen ratios did not differ significantly between control (with arthropods) and treatment (without arthropods) plots in any of the three community types. Our findings suggest that changes in arthropod faunal composition associated with widespread adoption of bioenergy feedstock crops may not be associated with profoundly altered arthropod‐mediated litter decomposition and nutrient release.  相似文献   

7.
    
Semi-natural lowland and mountain mesic meadows are grasslands rich in species, and their conservation status depends on treatments such as mowing or grazing livestock. In many countries, the condition of grasslands is deteriorating because of their inappropriate use or abandonment. This study aimed to determine the effects of the species composition of plant communities and functional plant groups on the methane yield from biomass harvested from mesic grasslands in the Sudetes Mountains. Biogas potential analysis was performed based on biomass samples collected from Poland and the Czech Republic. The biogas potential was determined in 40 day-long batch anaerobic digestion tests. The average methane yield obtained from the biomass was 246 ± 16 NL CH4 kg?1 VS, whereas the methane yield per hectare was 870 ± 203 m3 CH4 ha?1. Plant communities comprising different dominant species had no effect on the methane yield but affected the methane yield per hectare. Additionally, the species composition of grasslands with a higher percentage of forbs had lower biomass yield, resulting in lower methane yields per hectare. The continuity of the low-intensity management of mountain grassland, which can be provided by the utilization of their biomass for bioenergy production, sustains high biodiversity and ensures appropriate meadow conservation.  相似文献   

8.
    
Oil palm plantations have expanded rapidly in recent decades. This large‐scale land‐use change has had great ecological, economic, and social impacts on both the areas converted to oil palm and their surroundings. However, research on the impacts of oil palm cultivation is scattered and patchy, and no clear overview exists. We address this gap through a systematic and comprehensive literature review of all ecosystem functions in oil palm plantations, including several (genetic, medicinal and ornamental resources, information functions) not included in previous systematic reviews. We compare ecosystem functions in oil palm plantations to those in forests, as the conversion of forest to oil palm is prevalent in the tropics. We find that oil palm plantations generally have reduced ecosystem functioning compared to forests: 11 out of 14 ecosystem functions show a net decrease in level of function. Some functions show decreases with potentially irreversible global impacts (e.g. reductions in gas and climate regulation, habitat and nursery functions, genetic resources, medicinal resources, and information functions). The most serious impacts occur when forest is cleared to establish new plantations, and immediately afterwards, especially on peat soils. To variable degrees, specific plantation management measures can prevent or reduce losses of some ecosystem functions (e.g. avoid illegal land clearing via fire, avoid draining of peat, use of integrated pest management, use of cover crops, mulch, and compost) and we highlight synergistic mitigation measures that can improve multiple ecosystem functions simultaneously. The only ecosystem function which increases in oil palm plantations is, unsurprisingly, the production of marketable goods. Our review highlights numerous research gaps. In particular, there are significant gaps with respect to socio‐cultural information functions. Further, there is a need for more empirical data on the importance of spatial and temporal scales, such as differences among plantations in different environments, of different sizes, and of different ages, as our review has identified examples where ecosystem functions vary spatially and temporally. Finally, more research is needed on developing management practices that can offset the losses of ecosystem functions. Our findings should stimulate research to address the identified gaps, and provide a foundation for more systematic research and discussion on ways to minimize the negative impacts and maximize the positive impacts of oil palm cultivation.  相似文献   

9.
    
This review addresses the main issues concerning anticipated demands for the use of land for food and for bioenergy. It should be possible to meet increasing demands for food using existing and new technologies although this may not be easily or cheaply accomplished. The alleviation of hunger depends on food accessibility as well as food availability. Modern civilizations also require energy. This article presents the vision for bioenergy in terms of four major gains for society: a reduction in C emissions from the substitution of fossil fuels with appropriate energy crops; a significant contribution to energy security by reductions in fossil fuel dependence, for example, to meet government targets; new options that stimulate rural and urban economic development, and reduced dependence of global agriculture on fossil fuels. This vision is likely to be best fulfilled by the use of dedicated perennial bioenergy crops. We outline a number of factors that need to be taken into account in estimating the land area available for bioenergy. In terms of provisioning services, the value of biofuels is estimated at $54.7?$330 bn per year at a crude oil price of $100 per barrel. In terms of regulatory services, the value of carbon emissions saved is estimated at $56?$218 bn at a carbon price of $40 per tonne. Although global government subsidies for biofuels have been estimated at $20 bn (IEA, 2010b), these are dwarfed by subsidies for fossil fuel consumption ($312 bn; IEA, 2010b) and by total agricultural support for food and commodity crops ($383.7 bn in 2009; OECD, 2010).  相似文献   

10.
陕北农民对退耕还林的意愿评价   总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10       下载免费PDF全文
为了解生态修复政策对陕北地区社会经济的影响,2007年通过参与性农户调查方法,研究退耕还林项目对陕北居民生计的影响以及由于生态项目实施引起的农民态度的变化.结果表明：农民接受退耕还林补偿政策,但只有极少数人乐意植树(8.9%)、种草(2.2%). 尽管19.1%的农户表示他们的生计受到了项目的负面影响,63.8%的农户表示支持退耕还林项目,但是高达37.2%的农户表示项目结束后会再次垦荒种粮.由此可见,退耕还林项目恢复的植被在项目结束后有可能被重新开垦为农田,该项目获得的环境成果面临被再次破坏的风险.因此,给予合理的补偿来减少农民经济损失、通过技术进步提高单位土地面积产出、通过技术培训使农村剩余劳动力转移出来是环境修复项目成功的重要保证.  相似文献   

11.
    
To develop a more sustainable bio‐based economy, an increasing amount of carbon for industrial applications and biofuel will be obtained from bioenergy crops. This may result in intensified land use and potential conflicts with other ecosystem services provided by soil, such as control of greenhouse gas emissions, carbon sequestration, and nutrient dynamics. A growing number of studies examine how bioenergy crops influence carbon and nitrogen cycling. Few studies, however, have combined such assessments with analysing both the immediate effects on the provisioning of soil ecosystem services as well as the legacy effects for subsequent crops in the rotation. Here, we present results from field and laboratory experiments on effects of a standard first‐generation bioenergy crop (maize) and three different second‐generation bioenergy crops (willow short rotation coppice (SRC), Miscanthus × giganteus, switchgrass) on key soil quality parameters: soil structure, organic matter, biodiversity and growth and disease susceptibility of a major follow‐up crop, wheat (Triticum aestivum). We analysed a 6‐year field experiment and show that willow SRC, Miscanthus, and maize maintained a high yield over this period. Soil quality parameters and legacy effects of Miscanthus and switchgrass were similar or performed worse than maize. In contrast, willow SRC enhanced soil organic carbon concentration (0–5 cm), soil fertility, and soil biodiversity in the upper soil layer when compared to maize. In a greenhouse experiment, wheat grown in willow soil had higher biomass production than when grown in maize or Miscanthus soil and exhibited no growth reduction in response to introduction of a soil‐borne (Rhizoctonia solani) or a leaf pathogen (Mycosphaerella graminicola). We conclude that the choice of bioenergy crops can greatly influence provisioning of soil ecosystem services and legacy effects in soil. Our results imply that bioenergy crops with specific traits might even enhance ecosystem properties through positive legacy effects.  相似文献   

12.
    
The ongoing debate about costs and benefits of wood‐pellet based bioenergy production in the southeastern United States (SE USA) requires an understanding of the science and context influencing market decisions associated with its sustainability. Production of pellets has garnered much attention as US exports have grown from negligible amounts in the early 2000s to 4.6 million metric tonnes in 2015. Currently, 98% of these pellet exports are shipped to Europe to displace coal in power plants. We ask, ‘How is the production of wood pellets in the SE USA affecting forest systems and the ecosystem services they provide?’ To address this question, we review current forest conditions and the status of the wood products industry, how pellet production affects ecosystem services and biodiversity, and what methods are in place to monitor changes and protect vulnerable systems. Scientific studies provide evidence that wood pellets in the SE USA are a fraction of total forestry operations and can be produced while maintaining or improving forest ecosystem services. Ecosystem services are protected by the requirement to utilize loggers trained to apply scientifically based best management practices in planning and implementing harvest for the export market. Bioenergy markets supplement incomes to private rural landholders and provide an incentive for forest management practices that simultaneously benefit water quality and wildlife and reduce risk of fire and insect outbreaks. Bioenergy also increases the value of forest land to landowners, thereby decreasing likelihood of conversion to nonforest uses. Monitoring and evaluation are essential to verify that regulations and good practices are achieving goals and to enable timely responses if problems arise. Conducting rigorous research to understand how conditions change in response to management choices requires baseline data, monitoring, and appropriate reference scenarios. Long‐term monitoring data on forest conditions should be publicly accessible and utilized to inform adaptive management.  相似文献   

13.
    
  1. In French oak high forests, current silvicultural trends include two seemingly opposed practices: shortening the forestry cycle, which contributes to forestry intensification, and lengthening rotations in temporary set‐aside stands, called ‘ageing islands’, to favour biodiversity and high‐quality large‐diameter tree production.
  2. To derive the potential effects of these two trends, we studied habitat structure and saproxylic beetles biodiversity along an age gradient in a French oak high forest. Four age classes were surveyed: premature (i) 160/180 years and (ii) 180/200 years, (iii) mature 200/220 years, and (iv) overmature 300‐year‐old stands. Structural features were noted: deadwood volumes, density of large trees with or without microhabitats, number of cavities, presence of dead large canopy branches, sap droppings and sporophores of saproxylic fungi.
  3. Results showed that beetle species richness was positively related to stand age. Globally, overmature stands differed significantly from younger premature and mature forests in species composition and structure. Younger stands tended to show both fewer structural features and lower levels of saproxylic biodiversity. As the forest aged, the overall structural complexity and saproxylic biodiversity increased. However, no individual stand characteristic influenced preferentially biodiversity, and stand age was the best explaining factor.
  4. In conclusion, we discuss how (i) shorter rotations in the high forest production cycle and (ii) temporary set‐aside forest islands affect forest structure and deadwood‐associated assemblages. Shortening rotation length in oak high forests may negatively impact saproxylic biodiversity, whereas temporary set‐asides may play a key role for biodiversity conservation in a managed forest matrix.
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14.
范玉龙  胡楠  丁圣彦 《生态学报》2020,40(19):6729-6737
生态系统服务概念的提出将人类福祉与生态环境更直接地联系起来,有助于认识和解决发展与保护的难题。从生态系统服务网络的视角出发,可以更好的理解生态系统服务供给、流动和需求等相关复杂问题。(1)生态系统服务网将不同生态过程与服务有机联系起来,为生态系统服务交互研究提供参考。(2)不同尺度下生态系统服务间的交互作用以及自然-社会的互动是网络体系的重要组成部分,按服务网络间联系方式可以划分为网状层次、关系模块和对象模块。(3)生态系统服务在生物、生境网络中形成,受自然因素和人为因素的双重影响,服务网络间的联系与转化受生态系统服务流和网络关系的制约。(4)景观异质性、生物多样性和生态循环分别是生态系统服务网络形成的基础、核心和形成机制。(5)生态系统服务网络便于生态系统服务价值评估、空间制图,是提高人类对环境认知的重要手段。(6)人类福祉与生态系统服务间的非线性关系适宜用网络来表达,景观优化实质上是生态系统服务网调控的动态过程。  相似文献   

15.
    
Miscanthus is a C4 bioenergy perennial crop characterized by its high potential yield. Our study aimed to compare the carbon storage capacities of Miscanthus sinensis (M. sinensis) with that of Miscanthus × giganteus (M. × giganteus) in field conditions in different types of soils in France. We set up a multi‐environment experimental network. On each trial, we tested two treatments: M. × giganteus established from rhizomes (Gr) and M. sinensis transplanted seedlings (Sp). We quantified the soil organic carbon (SOC) stock at equivalent soil mass for both genotypes in 2014 and 2019 and for two sampling depths: L1 (ca. 0–5 cm) and L1‐2 (ca. 0–30 cm). We also calculated the total and annual variation of the SOC stock and investigated factors that could explain the variation and the initial state of the SOC stock. ANOVAs were performed to compare the SOC stock, as well as the SOC stock variation rates across treatments and soil layers. Results showed that the soil bulk density did not vary significantly between 2014 and 2019 for both treatments (Gr and Sp). The SOC concentration (i.e. SOC expressed in g/kg) increased significantly between 2014 and 2019 in L1, whereas no significant evolution was found in L2 (ca. 5–30 cm). The SOC stock (i.e. SOC expressed in t/ha) increased significantly in the superficial layer L1 for M. × giganteus and M. sinensis, by 0.48 ± 0.41 and 0.54 ± 0.25 t ha?1 year?1 on average, respectively, although no significant change was detected in the layer L1‐2 for both genotypes. Moreover, SOC stocks in 2019 did not differ significantly between M. × giganteus and M. sinensis in the soil layers L1 and L1‐2. Lastly, our results showed that the initial SOC stock was significantly higher when miscanthus was grown after set‐aside than after annual crops.  相似文献   

16.
We examined the potential local‐ and landscape‐level impacts of different biofuel production systems on biocontrol, an important service provided by arthropod natural enemies. Specifically, we sampled natural enemies with sweep nets and measured predation of sentinel pest eggs in stands of corn, switchgrass and mixed prairie in Michigan and Wisconsin (total n=40 for natural enemy sampling, n=60 for egg predation), relating them to crop type, forb cover and diversity, and the composition and heterogeneity of the surrounding landscape. Grasslands with intermediate levels of forb cover and flower diversity supported two‐orders of magnitude more natural enemy biomass, fourfold more natural enemy families, and threefold greater rates of egg predation than corn. Data suggest this was in part due to a general increase in biomass, richness and predation in perennial grasslands compared with corn, combined with a positive effect of intermediate levels of forb cover and flower diversity. Specifically, natural enemy biomass and family richness showed hump‐shaped relationships to forb cover that peaked in sites with 5–25% forbs, while egg predation increased with floral diversity. At the landscape scale, both natural‐enemy biomass and egg predation increased with the area of forest in the landscape, and egg predation almost doubled as the area of herbaceous, perennial habitats within 1.5 km of study sites increased. Our results suggest that floristically diverse, perennial grasslands support diverse and abundant predator communities that contribute to natural pest suppression. In addition, large‐scale production of biofuel crops could positively or negatively affect biocontrol services in agricultural landscapes through associated changes in the area of perennial habitats. Biofuel landscapes that incorporate perennial grasslands could support a variety of beneficial organisms and ecosystem services in addition to producing biomass.  相似文献   

17.
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18.
国际生物多样性研究科学计划与热点述评   总被引：11，自引：2，他引：11       下载免费PDF全文
李延梅  牛栋  张志强  曲建升 《生态学报》2009,29(4):2115-2123
生物多样性与人类生活密切相关.近年来不断加剧的人类活动,对生物多样性造成了严重破坏.已有研究表明,地球上的物种正以前所未有的速度丧失.为了遏止这种状况,目前,世界上许多国际组织和国家都对生物多样性及其相关问题展开研究,并制定了与生物多样性保护相关的法规和战略计划,也采取了许多保护生物多样性的行动.DIVERSITAS是国际全球环境变化(GEC)四大研究计划之一,也是生物多样性领域最大的国际科学计划, DIVERSITAS于2001年开始启动了第Ⅱ阶段研究并确定了新的核心研究计划和跨学科交叉网络计划.世界自然保护联盟(The World Conservation Union,IUCN)在2008年发布了<塑造可持续的未来:IUCN 2009～2012年计划>,提出了5个优先主题领域.欧盟于2006年通过了一项保护生物多样性的新战略--<2010年及未来阻止生物多样性丧失:人类福祉的可持续生态服务>.此外,很多国际/国家基金组织还发起了一些全球性的生物多样性计划,如国际海洋生物普查计划、生命之树计划、国际生命条码计划等.本文对上述生物多样性保护和研究的国际计划予以概要介绍和评述,并指出当前国际上生物多样性研究的主要热点,即:生物多样性变化与生态系统功能;生物多样性和生态系统服务的价值评估;生物多样性与气候变化;生物多样性长期动态监测;生物多样性的评价指标等.  相似文献   

19.
    
Old‐growth tropical forests are being extensively deforested and fragmented worldwide. Yet forest recovery through succession has led to an expansion of secondary forests in human‐modified tropical landscapes (HMTLs). Secondary forests thus emerge as a potential repository for tropical biodiversity, and also as a source of essential ecosystem functions and services in HMTLs. Such critical roles are controversial, however, as they depend on successional, landscape and socio‐economic dynamics, which can vary widely within and across landscapes and regions. Understanding the main drivers of successional pathways of disturbed tropical forests is critically needed for improving management, conservation, and restoration strategies. Here, we combine emerging knowledge from tropical forest succession, forest fragmentation and landscape ecology research to identify the main driving forces shaping successional pathways at different spatial scales. We also explore causal connections between land‐use dynamics and the level of predictability of successional pathways, and examine potential implications of such connections to determine the importance of secondary forests for biodiversity conservation in HMTLs. We show that secondary succession (SS) in tropical landscapes is a multifactorial phenomenon affected by a myriad of forces operating at multiple spatio‐temporal scales. SS is relatively fast and more predictable in recently modified landscapes and where well‐preserved biodiversity‐rich native forests are still present in the landscape. Yet the increasing variation in landscape spatial configuration and matrix heterogeneity in landscapes with intermediate levels of disturbance increases the uncertainty of successional pathways. In landscapes that have suffered extensive and intensive human disturbances, however, succession can be slow or arrested, with impoverished assemblages and reduced potential to deliver ecosystem functions and services. We conclude that: (i) succession must be examined using more comprehensive explanatory models, providing information about the forces affecting not only the presence but also the persistence of species and ecological groups, particularly of those taxa expected to be extirpated from HMTLs; (ii) SS research should integrate new aspects from forest fragmentation and landscape ecology research to address accurately the potential of secondary forests to serve as biodiversity repositories; and (iii) secondary forest stands, as a dynamic component of HMTLs, must be incorporated as key elements of conservation planning; i.e. secondary forest stands must be actively managed (e.g. using assisted forest restoration) according to conservation goals at broad spatial scales.  相似文献   

20.
Society increasingly focuses on managing nature for the services it provides people rather than for the existence of particular species. How much biodiversity protection would result from this modified focus? Although biodiversity contributes to ecosystem services, the details of which species are critical, and whether they will go functionally extinct in the future, are fraught with uncertainty. Explicitly considering this uncertainty, we develop an analytical framework to determine how much biodiversity protection would arise solely from optimising net value from an ecosystem service. Using stochastic dynamic programming, we find that protecting a threshold number of species is optimal, and uncertainty surrounding how biodiversity produces services makes it optimal to protect more species than are presumed critical. We define conditions under which the economically optimal protection strategy is to protect all species, no species, and cases in between. We show how the optimal number of species to protect depends upon different relationships between species and services, including considering multiple services. Our analysis provides simple criteria to evaluate when managing for particular ecosystem services could warrant protecting all species, given uncertainty. Evaluating this criterion with empirical estimates from different ecosystems suggests that optimising some services will be more likely to protect most species than others.  相似文献   

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