After more than a decade of soil moisture deficit,tropical rainforest trees maintain photosynthetic capacity,despite increased leaf respiration

Determining climate change feedbacks from tropical rainforests requires an understanding of how carbon gain through photosynthesis and loss through respiration will be altered. One of the key changes that tropical rainforests may experience under future climate change scenarios is reduced soil moisture availability. In this study we examine if and how both leaf photosynthesis and leaf dark respiration acclimate following more than 12 years of experimental soil moisture deficit, via a through‐fall exclusion experiment (TFE) in an eastern Amazonian rainforest. We find that experimentally drought‐stressed trees and taxa maintain the same maximum leaf photosynthetic capacity as trees in corresponding control forest, independent of their susceptibility to drought‐induced mortality. We hypothesize that photosynthetic capacity is maintained across all treatments and taxa to take advantage of short‐lived periods of high moisture availability, when stomatal conductance (g_s) and photosynthesis can increase rapidly, potentially compensating for reduced assimilate supply at other times. Average leaf dark respiration (R_d) was elevated in the TFE‐treated forest trees relative to the control by 28.2 ± 2.8% (mean ± one standard error). This mean R_d value was dominated by a 48.5 ± 3.6% increase in the R_d of drought‐sensitive taxa, and likely reflects the need for additional metabolic support required for stress‐related repair, and hydraulic or osmotic maintenance processes. Following soil moisture deficit that is maintained for several years, our data suggest that changes in respiration drive greater shifts in the canopy carbon balance, than changes in photosynthetic capacity.     

Rainforest seed rain into abandoned tropical Australian pasture is dependent on adjacent rainforest structure and extent

It is well known that the recovery of abandoned tropical pastures to secondary rainforest benefits from the arrival of seeds from adjacent rainforest patches. Less is known, however, about how the structural attributes of adjacent rainforest (e.g. tree density, canopy cover and tree height) impact seed rain patterns into abandoned pastures. Between 2011 and 2013, we used seed traps and ground seed surveys to track the richness and abundance of rainforest seeds entering abandoned pastures in Australia's wet tropics. We also tested how seed rain diversity is related to the distance from forest, the proportion of forest cover in the landscape and several structural attributes of adjacent forest patches, specifically average tree height, canopy cover, tree species richness and density. Almost no seeds were captured in elevated pasture seed traps, even near forest remnants. Abundant forest seeds were found in ground surveys but only within 10 m of forest edges. In ground surveys, seeds from wind‐dispersed species were more abundant, but less species rich, than animal‐dispersed species. A survey of pasture seedling recruits suggested that some forest seeds must be dispersing more than 10 m into pasture at very low frequencies, but only a few species are establishing there. Recruits were predominantly animal‐dispersed not wind‐dispersed species. In addition to distance from forest and the proportion of forest within a 100‐ to 200‐m radius of sampling sites, the richness and density of adjacent forest trees were the most important factors for explaining the probability of seed occurrence in abandoned pastures. Results suggest that without some restoration assistance, the recovery of abandoned pastures into secondary rainforest in Australia's tropical rainforests will likely be limited, at least in part, by a very low rate of seed dispersal away from forest edges and by the diversity and density of trees in adjacent remnant forests.     

The distribution of vascular epiphytes over gradients of light and humidity in north‐east Australian rainforest

Microclimatic conditions have a strong influence on the distribution of vascular epiphytes, among which orchids often occur in sunnier and more drought‐prone situations than ferns. However, very few studies have looked at the distribution of ferns and orchids in Australian tropical rainforests. By using transmitted light measurements at the locations of individual epiphytes and vapour pressure deficit from the canopy and base of host trees, we were able to determine the patterns of light and humidity in the rainforest environment, and the responses of ferns and orchids to variation in the physical environments. We surveyed five sites, ranging from 800 to 1180 m in elevation in the lower montane rainforests of north‐east Australia. Data loggers recorded the vapour pressure deficit (VPD) at the forest floor and canopy of each site. Light was correlated with height within the host tree and VPD differed significantly over position in the host tree and elevation. There was a strong partitioning of taxonomic groups over the light and VPD gradients. Orchids occurred in environments that had higher mean light levels and mean daily maximum VPD (27% and 0.43 kPa, respectively) than ferns (21% and 0.28 kPa). There was also strong microclimatic partitioning of species within taxonomic groups, suggesting that microclimatic factors play an important role in the realized niche spaces of epiphytes within the tropical Australian rainforest. Thus, the tested ecological generalizations made on tropical rainforest epiphytes apply in Australia.     

Disentangling the long‐term effects of disturbance on soil biogeochemistry in a wet tropical forest ecosystem

Climate change is increasing the intensity of severe tropical storms and cyclones (also referred to as hurricanes or typhoons), with major implications for tropical forest structure and function. These changes in disturbance regime are likely to play an important role in regulating ecosystem carbon (C) and nutrient dynamics in tropical and subtropical forests. Canopy opening and debris deposition resulting from severe storms have complex and interacting effects on ecosystem biogeochemistry. Disentangling these complex effects will be critical to better understand the long‐term implications of climate change on ecosystem C and nutrient dynamics. In this study, we used a well‐replicated, long‐term (10 years) canopy and debris manipulation experiment in a wet tropical forest to determine the separate and combined effects of canopy opening and debris deposition on soil C and nutrients throughout the soil profile (1 m). Debris deposition alone resulted in higher soil C and N concentrations, both at the surface (0–10 cm) and at depth (50–80 cm). Concentrations of NaOH‐organic P also increased significantly in the debris deposition only treatment (20–90 cm depth), as did NaOH‐total P (20–50 cm depth). Canopy opening, both with and without debris deposition, significantly increased NaOH‐inorganic P concentrations from 70 to 90 cm depth. Soil iron concentrations were a strong predictor of both C and P patterns throughout the soil profile. Our results demonstrate that both surface‐ and subsoils have the potential to significantly increase C and nutrient storage a decade after the sudden deposition of disturbance‐related organic debris. Our results also show that these effects may be partially offset by rapid decomposition and decreases in litterfall associated with canopy opening. The significant effects of debris deposition on soil C and nutrient concentrations at depth (>50 cm), suggest that deep soils are more dynamic than previously believed, and can serve as sinks of C and nutrients derived from disturbance‐induced pulses of organic matter inputs.     

Water availability predicts forest canopy height at the global scale

The tendency of trees to grow taller with increasing water availability is common knowledge. Yet a robust, universal relationship between the spatial distribution of water availability and forest canopy height (H) is lacking. Here, we created a global water availability map by calculating an annual budget as the difference between precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) at a 1‐km spatial resolution, and in turn correlated it with a global H map of the same resolution. Across forested areas over the globe, H_mean increased with P‐PET, roughly: H_mean (m) = 19.3 + 0.077*(P‐PET). Maximum forest canopy height also increased gradually from ~ 5 to ~ 50 m, saturating at ~ 45 m for P‐PET > 500 mm. Forests were far from their maximum height potential in cold, boreal regions and in disturbed areas. The strong association between forest height and P‐PET provides a useful tool when studying future forest dynamics under climate change, and in quantifying anthropogenic forest disturbance.     

Age‐related Crown Thinning in Tropical Forest Trees

Gap dynamics theory proposes that treefall gaps provide high light levels needed for regeneration in the understory, and by increasing heterogeneity in the light environment allow light‐demanding tree species to persist in the community. Recent studies have demonstrated age‐related declines in leaf area index of individual temperate trees, highlighting a mechanism for gradual changes in the forest canopy that may also be an important, but less obvious, driver of forest dynamics. We assessed the prevalence of age‐related crown thinning among 12 tropical canopy tree species sampled in lowland forests in Panama and Puerto Rico (total N = 881). Canopy gap fraction of individual canopy tree crowns was positively related to stem diameter at 1.3 m (diameter at breast height) in a pooled analysis, with 10 of 12 species showing a positive trend. Considered individually, a positive correlation between stem diameter and canopy gap fraction was statistically significant in 4 of 12 species, all of which were large‐statured canopy to emergent species: Beilschmiedia pendula, Ceiba pentandra, Jacaranda copaia, and Prioria copaifera. Pooled analyses also showed a negative relationship between liana abundance and canopy gap fraction, suggesting that lianas could be partially obscuring age‐related crown thinning. We conclude that age‐related crown thinning occurs in tropical forests, and could thus influence patterns of tree regeneration and tropical forest community dynamics.     

A global climate niche for giant trees

Rainforests are among the most charismatic as well as the most endangered ecosystems of the world. However, although the effects of climate change on tropical forests resilience is a focus of intense research, the conditions for their equally impressive temperate counterparts remain poorly understood, and it remains unclear whether tropical and temperate rainforests have fundamental similarities or not. Here we use new global data from high precision laser altimetry equipment on satellites to reveal for the first time that across climate zones ‘giant forests’ are a distinct and universal phenomenon, reflected in a separate mode of canopy height (~40 m) worldwide. Occurrence of these giant forests (cutoff height > 25 m) is negatively correlated with variability in rainfall and temperature. We also demonstrate that their distribution is sharply limited to situations with a mean annual precipitation above a threshold of 1,500 mm that is surprisingly universal across tropical and temperate climates. The total area with such precipitation levels is projected to increase by ~4 million km² globally. Our results thus imply that strategic management could in principle facilitate the expansion of giant forests, securing critically endangered biodiversity as well as carbon storage in selected regions.     

Amazonia trees have limited capacity to acclimate plant hydraulic properties in response to long‐term drought

The fate of tropical forests under future climate change is dependent on the capacity of their trees to adjust to drier conditions. The capacity of trees to withstand drought is likely to be determined by traits associated with their hydraulic systems. However, data on whether tropical trees can adjust hydraulic traits when experiencing drought remain rare. We measured plant hydraulic traits (e.g. hydraulic conductivity and embolism resistance) and plant hydraulic system status (e.g. leaf water potential, native embolism and safety margin) on >150 trees from 12 genera (36 species) and spanning a stem size range from 14 to 68 cm diameter at breast height at the world's only long‐running tropical forest drought experiment. Hydraulic traits showed no adjustment following 15 years of experimentally imposed moisture deficit. This failure to adjust resulted in these drought‐stressed trees experiencing significantly lower leaf water potentials, and higher, but variable, levels of native embolism in the branches. This result suggests that hydraulic damage caused by elevated levels of embolism is likely to be one of the key drivers of drought‐induced mortality following long‐term soil moisture deficit. We demonstrate that some hydraulic traits changed with tree size, however, the direction and magnitude of the change was controlled by taxonomic identity. Our results suggest that Amazonian trees, both small and large, have limited capacity to acclimate their hydraulic systems to future droughts, potentially making them more at risk of drought‐induced mortality.     

Edge disturbance drives liana abundance increase and alteration of liana–host tree interactions in tropical forest fragments

Closed‐canopy forests are being rapidly fragmented across much of the tropical world. Determining the impacts of fragmentation on ecological processes enables better forest management and improves species‐conservation outcomes. Lianas are an integral part of tropical forests but can have detrimental and potentially complex interactions with their host trees. These effects can include reduced tree growth and fecundity, elevated tree mortality, alterations in tree‐species composition, degradation of forest succession, and a substantial decline in forest carbon storage. We examined the individual impacts of fragmentation and edge effects (0–100‐m transect from edge to forest interior) on the liana community and liana–host tree interactions in rainforests of the Atherton Tableland in north Queensland, Australia. We compared the liana and tree community, the traits of liana‐infested trees, and determinants of the rates of tree infestation within five forest fragments (23–58 ha in area) and five nearby intact‐forest sites. Fragmented forests experienced considerable disturbance‐induced degradation at their edges, resulting in a significant increase in liana abundance. This effect penetrated to significantly greater depths in forest fragments than in intact forests. The composition of the liana community in terms of climbing guilds was significantly different between fragmented and intact forests, likely because forest edges had more small‐sized trees favoring particular liana guilds which preferentially use these for climbing trellises. Sites that had higher liana abundances also exhibited higher infestation rates of trees, as did sites with the largest lianas. However, large lianas were associated with low‐disturbance forest sites. Our study shows that edge disturbance of forest fragments significantly altered the abundance and community composition of lianas and their ecological relationships with trees, with liana impacts on trees being elevated in fragments relative to intact forests. Consequently, effective control of lianas in forest fragments requires management practices which directly focus on minimizing forest edge disturbance.     

Changes in structure of over‐ and midstory tree species in a Mediterranean‐type forest after an extreme drought‐associated heatwave

Worldwide, extreme climatic events such as drought and heatwaves are associated with forest mortality. However, the precise drivers of tree mortality at individual and stand levels vary considerably, with substantial gaps in knowledge across studies in biomes and continents. In 2010–2011, a drought‐associated heatwave occurred in south‐western Australia and drove sudden and rapid forest canopy collapse. Working in the Northern Jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) Forest, we quantified the response of key overstory (E. marginata, Corymbia calophylla) and midstory (Banksia grandis, Allocasuarina fraseriana) tree species to the extreme climate event. Using transects spanning a gradient of drought impacts (minimal (50–100 m), transitional (100–150 m) and severe (30–60 m)), tree species mortality in relation to stand characteristics (stand basal area and stem density) and edaphic factors (soil depth) was determined. We show differential mortality between the two overstory species and the two midstory species corresponding to the drought‐associated heatwave. The dominant overstory species, E. marginata, had significantly higher mortality (~19%) than C. calophylla (~7%) in the severe zone. The midstory species, B. grandis, demonstrated substantially higher mortality (~59%) than A. fraseriana (~4%) in the transitional zone. Banksia grandis exhibited a substantial shift in structure in response to the drought‐associated heatwave in relation to tree size, basal area and soil depth. This study illustrates the role of climate extremes in driving ecosystem change and highlights the critical need to identify and quantify the resulting impact to help predict future forest die‐off events and to underpin forest management and conservation.     

Tropical rainforest canopies and climate change

Abstract There is less certainty about the impact of climate change on tropical rainforests than on temperate forests because of the comparative lack of background data and because few large scale experiments have been, and are being, carried out in tropical rainforests. Many of the factors critical to the future of tropical rainforests concern canopies, the key processes that take place there, and the roles and interactions of canopy biodiversity. In particular there are almost no data on how forest canopies and processes are changing with increased carbon dioxide levels. The implications of elevated carbon dioxide, climatic stress and related changes in water‐use efficiency, nutrient availability and other such changes are discussed particularly with references to Australia's tropical rainforests.     

Predicting dispersal of auto‐gyrating fruit in tropical trees: a case study from the Dipterocarpaceae

Seed dispersal governs the distribution of plant propagules in the landscape and hence forms the template on which density‐dependent processes act. Dispersal is therefore a vital component of many species coexistence and forest dynamics models and is of applied value in understanding forest regeneration. Research on the processes that facilitate forest regeneration and restoration is given further weight in the context of widespread loss and degradation of tropical forests, and provides impetus to improve estimates of seed dispersal for tropical forest trees. South‐East Asian lowland rainforests, which have been subject to severe degradation, are dominated by trees of the Dipterocarpaceae family which constitute over 40% of forest biomass. Dipterocarp dispersal is generally considered to be poor given their large, gyration‐dispersed fruits. However, there is wide variability in fruit size and morphology which we hypothesize mechanistically underpins dispersal potential through the lift provided to seeds mediated by the wings. We explored experimentally how the ratio of fruit wing area to mass (“inverse wing loading,” IWL) explains variation in seed dispersal kernels among 13 dipterocarp species by releasing fruit from a canopy tower. Horizontal seed dispersal distances increased with IWL, especially at high wind speeds. Seed dispersal of all species was predominantly local, with 90% of seed dispersing <10 m, although maximum dispersal distances varied widely among species. We present a generic seed dispersal model for dipterocarps based on attributes of seed morphology and provide modeled seed dispersal kernels for all dipterocarp species with IWLs of 1–50, representing 75% of species in Borneo.     

Biophysical analysis of afromontane forest community types at Mount Kasigau,Kenya

This study examines how biophysical site conditions differ in relation to the distribution of forest community types at Mount Kasigau, Kenya, in the Eastern Arc. Topographic measures of elevation, slope, curvature and aspect were derived from a 30‐m DEM and temperature and moisture conditions collected from 19 field data loggers for June 2011–2012 measured seasonal change along the steep elevational gradient (1000 m) from bushland to evergreen forest. Nonparametric statistical analyses then compared topographic and climatic conditions among eight ecologically classified forest types. Steep lapse rates in temperature and available moisture support abrupt changes in canopy physiognomy, but dew points declined with elevation. The Kruskal–Wallis test showed significant differences in the elevation, slope, temperature, dew point and relative humidity conditions among the eight forest types. These biophysical conditions are more discrete for Acacia‐Commiphora bushland and cloud forest but not significantly different between riverine forest, lower montane woodlands I and II and Euphorbia quinquecostata woodland, and between semi‐evergreen woodland and evergreen forest. Biophysical conditions and their influence on the distribution of forest types across a heterogeneous mountain landscape are important to understand and monitor in this unpredictably changing tropical seasonal climate.     

Canopy soil greenhouse gas dynamics in response to indirect fertilization across an elevation gradient of tropical montane forests

Canopy soils can significantly contribute to aboveground labile biomass, especially in tropical montane forests. Whether they also contribute to the exchange of greenhouse gases is unknown. To examine the importance of canopy soils to tropical forest‐soil greenhouse gas exchange, we quantified gas fluxes from canopy soil cores along an elevation gradient with 4 yr of nutrient addition to the forest floor. Canopy soil contributed 5–12 percent of combined (canopy + forest floor) soil CO₂ emissions but CH₄ and N₂O fluxes were low. At 2000 m, phosphorus decreased CO₂ emissions (>40%) and nitrogen slightly increased CH₄ uptake and N₂O emissions. Our results show that canopy soils may contribute significantly to combined soil greenhouse gas fluxes in montane regions with high accumulations of canopy soil. We also show that changes in fluxes could occur with chronic nutrient deposition.     

Optimal climate for large trees at high elevations drives patterns of biomass in remote forests of Papua New Guinea

Our ability to model global carbon fluxes depends on understanding how terrestrial carbon stocks respond to varying environmental conditions. Tropical forests contain the bulk of the biosphere's carbon. However, there is a lack of consensus as to how gradients in environmental conditions affect tropical forest carbon. Papua New Guinea (PNG) lies within one of the largest areas of contiguous tropical forest and is characterized by environmental gradients driven by altitude; yet, the region has been grossly understudied. Here, we present the first field assessment of aboveground biomass (AGB) across three main forest types of PNG using 193 plots stratified across 3,100‐m elevation gradient. Unexpectedly, AGB had no direct relationship to rainfall, temperature, soil, or topography. Instead, natural disturbances explained most variation in AGB. While large trees (diameter at breast height > 50 cm) drove altitudinal patterns of AGB, resulting in a major peak in AGB (2,200–3,100 m) and some of the most carbon‐rich forests at these altitudes anywhere. Large trees were correlated to a set of climatic variables following a hump‐shaped curve. The set of “optimal” climatic conditions found in montane cloud forests is similar to that of maritime temperate areas that harbor the largest trees in the world: high ratio of precipitation to evapotranspiration (2.8), moderate mean annual temperature (13.7°C), and low intra‐annual temperature range (7.5°C). At extreme altitudes (2,800–3,100 m), where tree diversity elsewhere is usually low and large trees are generally rare or absent, specimens from 18 families had girths >70 cm diameter and maximum heights 20–41 m. These findings indicate that simple AGB‐climate‐edaphic models may not be suitable for estimating carbon storage in forests where optimal climate niches exist. Our study, conducted in a very remote area, suggests that tropical montane forests may contain greater AGB than previously thought and the importance of securing their future under a changing climate is therefore enhanced.     

Pervasive canopy dynamics produce short-term stability in a tropical rain forest landscape

A fundamental property of all forest landscapes is the size frequency distribution of canopy gap disturbances. But characterizing forest structure and changes at large spatial scales has been challenging and most of our understanding is from permanent inventory plots. Here we report the first application of light detection and ranging remote sensing to measurements of canopy disturbance and regeneration in an old-growth tropical rain forest landscape. Pervasive local height changes figure prominently in the dynamics of this forest. Although most canopy gaps recruited to higher positions during 8.5 years, size frequency distributions were similar at two points in time and well-predicted by power-laws. At larger spatial scales (hundreds of ha), height increases and decreases occurred with similar frequency and changes to canopy height that were analysed using a height transition matrix suggest that the distribution of canopy height at the beginning of the study was close to the projected steady-state equilibrium under the recent disturbance regime. Taken together, these findings show how widespread local height changes can produce short-term stability in a tropical rain forest landscape.     

Drought and the interannual variability of stem growth in an aseasonal,everwet forest

Linking drought to the timing of physiological processes governing tree growth remains one limitation in forecasting climate change effects on tropical trees. Using dendrometers, we measured fine‐scale growth for 96 trees of 25 species from 2013 to 2016 in an everwet forest in Puerto Rico. Rainfall over this time span varied, including an unusual, severe El Niño drought in 2015. We assessed how growing season onset, median day, conclusion, and length varied with absolute growth rate and tree size over time. Stem growth was seasonal, beginning in February, peaking in July, and ending in November. Species growth rates varied between 0 and 8 mm/year and correlated weakly with specific leaf area, leaf phosphorus, and leaf nitrogen, and to a lesser degree with wood specific gravity and plant height. Drought and tree growth were decoupled, and drought lengthened and increased variation in growing season length. During the 2015 drought, many trees terminated growth early but did not necessarily grow less. In the year following drought, trees grew more over a shorter growing season, with many smaller trees showing a post‐drought increase in growth. We attribute the increased growth of smaller trees to release from light limitation as the canopy thinned because of the drought, and less inferred hydraulic stress than larger trees during drought. Soil type accounted for interannual and interspecific differences, with the finest Zarzal clays reducing tree growth. We conclude that drought affects the phenological timing of tree growth and favors the post‐drought growth of smaller, sub‐canopy trees in this everwet forest. Abstract in Spanish is available with online material.     

Chronosequence predictions are robust in a Neotropical secondary forest,but plots miss the mark

Tropical secondary forests (TSF) are a global carbon sink of 1.6 Pg C/year. However, TSF carbon uptake is estimated using chronosequence studies that assume differently aged forests can be used to predict change in aboveground biomass density (AGBD) over time. We tested this assumption using two airborne lidar datasets separated by 11.5 years over a Neotropical landscape. Using data from 1998, we predicted canopy height and AGBD within 1.1 and 10.3% of observations in 2009, with higher accuracy for forest height than AGBD and for older TSFs in comparison to younger ones. This result indicates that the space‐for‐time assumption is robust at the landscape‐scale. However, since lidar measurements of secondary tropical forest are rare, we used the 1998 lidar dataset to test how well plot‐based studies quantify the mean TSF height and biomass in a landscape. We found that the sample area required to produce estimates of height or AGBD close to the landscape mean is larger than the typical area sampled in secondary forest chronosequence studies. For example, estimating AGBD within 10% of the landscape mean requires more than thirty 0.1 ha plots per age class, and more total area for larger plots. We conclude that under‐sampling in ground‐based studies may introduce error into estimations of the TSF carbon sink, and that this error can be reduced by more extensive use of lidar measurements.     

Sources or sinks? The responses of tropical forests to current and future climate and atmospheric composition.

How tropical rainforests are responding to the ongoing global changes in atmospheric composition and climate is little studied and poorly understood. Although rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) could enhance forest productivity, increased temperatures and drought are likely to diminish it. The limited field data have produced conflicting views of the net impacts of these changes so far. One set of studies has seemed to point to enhanced carbon uptake; however, questions have arisen about these findings, and recent experiments with tropical forest trees indicate carbon saturation of canopy leaves and no biomass increase under enhanced CO2. Other field observations indicate decreased forest productivity and increased tree mortality in recent years of peak temperatures and drought (strong El Niño episodes). To determine current climatic responses of forests around the world tropics will require careful annual monitoring of ecosystem performance in representative forests. To develop the necessary process-level understanding of these responses will require intensified experimentation at the whole-tree and stand levels. Finally, a more complete understanding of tropical rainforest carbon cycling is needed for determining whether these ecosystems are carbon sinks or sources now, and how this status might change during the next century.     

Fruiting phenology is linked to rainfall variability in a tropical rain forest

As the influence of climate change on tropical forests becomes apparent, more studies are needed to understand how changes in climatic variables such as rainfall are likely to affect tree phenology. Using a twelve‐year dataset (2005–2016), we studied the impact of seasonal rainfall patterns on the fruiting phenology of 69 tree species in the rain forest of southeastern Madagascar. We found that average annual rainfall in this region has increased by >800 mm (23%) during this period relative to that recorded for the previous 40 years and was highly variable both within and between years. Higher monthly measures of fruiting richness and the intensity of fruiting in our sample community were associated with significantly higher levels of rainfall. We also found that less rainfall during the dry season, but not the wet season, was associated with a significant shift toward later timing of peak richness and peak intensity of fruiting in the subsequent 12 months; however, this pattern was driven primarily by an extreme drought event that occurred during the study period. Longer time scales of phenology data are needed to see whether this pattern is consistent. Madagascar is expected to experience more extremes in rainfall and drought with increasing climate change. Thus, the linkages between variable precipitation and the fruiting phenology of forest trees will have important consequences for understanding plant reproduction and the ability of Madagascar's wildlife to cope with a changing climate.