Socio-economic drivers of freshwater fish declines in a changing climate: a New Zealand perspective

New Zealand has a freshwater fish fauna characterized by high levels of national and local endemism and which is threatened by anthropogenic stressors including habitat destruction or deterioration, commercial harvest, pollution and interactions with invasive exotic species. Significant expansion of New Zealand's dairy production has recently created further deterioration of lowland water quality and greater pressure for water allocation in drier eastern regions of the South Island. New Zealand has large freshwater resources and its climate is predicted to experience less dramatic changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation than many other regions of the world as a result of anthropogenic climate change. Predicted changes in regional climate and further expansion of the dairy industry, however, will impose similar pressures on freshwater resources in northern New Zealand to those already acting to threaten freshwater biodiversity in the eastern South Island.     

Phytoplankton configuration in six deep lakes in the peri-Alpine region: are the key drivers related to eutrophication and climate?

The aim of this study was to draw a general picture of the phytoplankton community in peri-Alpine lakes, including for the first time a broad data set of six deep peri-Alpine lakes, belonging to the same geographical region. The objective was to define the main key drivers that influence the phytoplankton community composition in this particular vulnerable region, for which the impacts of climate change have been demonstrated to be stronger than on a global average. The phytoplankton was investigated with a particular focus on cyanobacteria and using a classification approach based on morpho-functional groups. We hypothesized that phytoplankton in peri-Alpine lakes is mainly driven by nutrient loads as well as by water temperatures, variables that are strongly influenced by climate change and eutrophication. Though different phytoplankton configurations among lakes were partly due to their geographical (altitude) position, assemblages were mostly linked to temperature and nutrients. Furthermore, the results confirmed the significant role of the spring fertilization on the seasonal phytoplankton development. Cyanobacteria were related to the increasing annual average of air and water temperature gradient and therefore might become more important under future warming scenario. Air temperatures have a significant impact on water temperature in the uppermost meters of the water column, with a stronger influence on warmer lakes.     

The impact of climate on the geographical distribution of phytoplankton species in boreal lakes

Here, we use a novel space-by-time approach to study large-scale changes in phytoplankton species distribution in Swedish boreal lakes in response to climate variability. Using phytoplankton samples from 27 lakes, evenly distributed across Sweden, all relatively unimpacted by anthropogenic disturbance and sampled annually between 1996 and 2010, we found significant shifts in the geographical distribution of 18 species. We also found significant changes in the prevalence of 45 species (33 became more common and 12 less common) over the study period. Using species distribution models and phytoplankton samples from 60 lakes sampled at least twice between 1992 and 2010, we evaluated the importance of climate variability and other environmental variables on species distribution. We found that temperature (e.g., extreme events and the duration of the growing season) was the most important predictor for species detections. Many cyanobacteria, chlorophytes, and, to a lesser extent, diatoms and zygnematophytes, showed congruent and positive responses to temperature. In contrast, precipitation explained little variation and was important only for a few taxa (e.g., Staurodesmus spp., Trachelomonas volvocina). At the community level, our results suggest a change in community composition at temperatures over 20 °C and growing seasons longer than 40 days. We conclude that climate is an important driver of the distributional patterns of individual phytoplankton species and may drive changes in community composition in minimally disturbed boreal lakes.     

Stability in a changing world – palm community dynamics in the hyperdiverse western Amazon over 17 years

Are the hyperdiverse local forests of the western Amazon undergoing changes linked to global and local drivers such as climate change, or successional dynamics? We analyzed local climatic records to assess potential climatic changes in Yasuní National Park, Ecuador, and compared two censuses (1995, 2012) of a palm community to assess changes in community structure and composition. Over 17 years, the structure and composition of this palm community remained remarkably stable. Soil humidity was significantly lower and canopy conditions were significantly more open in 2012 compared to 1995, but local climatic records showed that no significant changes in precipitation, temperature or river level have occurred during the last decade. Thus, we found no evidence of recent directional shifts in climate or the palm community in Yasuní. The absence of changes in local climate and plant community dynamics in Yasuní contrasts with recent findings from eastern Amazon, where environmental change is driving significant changes in ecosystem dynamics. Our findings suggest that until now, local forests in the northwest Amazon may have escaped pressure from climate change. The stability of this rich palm community embedded in the hyperdiverse Yasuní National Park underlines its uniqueness as a sanctuary for the protection of Amazonian diversity from global change impacts.     

Combining a regional climate model with a phytoplankton community model to predict future changes in phytoplankton in lakes

1. Linking a regional climate model (RCM) configured for contemporary atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, with a phytoplankton community model (PROTECH) produced realistic simulations of 20 years of recent phytoplankton data from Bassenthwaite Lake, in the North‐West of England. 2. Meteorological drivers were derived from the RCM to represent a future climate scenario involving a 1% per annum compound increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations until 2100. Using these drivers, PROTECH was run for another 20 year period representing the last two decades of the 21st century. 3. Comparison of these present and future simulations revealed likely impacts on the current seasonal phytoplankton development. Under future climate conditions, the simulated spring bloom showed an increase in cyanobacteria dominance caused by greater success of Planktothrix. Also, the summer cyanobacteria bloom declined earlier because of nutrient limitation caused by the increased spring growth. Overall productivity in the lake did not change. 4. Analysis showed that these predicted changes were driven by changes in water temperature, which were in turn triggered by the higher air temperatures predicted by the RCM.     

Climate change impacts on structure and diversity of fish communities in rivers

It is widely accepted that climate change constrains biota. Yet, because of the lack of consistent multisite and multitaxon surveys, few studies have addressed general rules about how climate change impacts on structure and diversity of animal communities. Especially, the relative influence of nonclimatic anthropogenic disturbances on this impact is fairly unknown. Here, we present for the first time a meta-analysis assessing the effect of global warming on stream organisms. Fish communities of large rivers in France undergoing various anthropogenic pressures showed significant increase in proportions of warm-water species and of specific richness during the last 15–25 years. Conversely, the equitability decreased, indicating a gradual decrease of the number of dominant species. Finally, the total abundance increased, coupled with rejuvenation and changes in size-structure of the communities. Interestingly, most of these effects were not depressed by the strength of nonclimatic anthropogenic disturbances. Conversely, geographical location of communities and especially closeness of natural barriers to migration could influence their response to climate change. Indeed, increase in the proportion of southern species seemed hindered at sites located close to the southern limit of the European species' geographical ranges. This work provides new evidence that climate change have deep impacts on communities which, by overtaking the effects of nonclimatic anthropogenic disturbances, could be more substantial than previously thought. Overall, our results stress the importance of considering climate change impacts in studies addressing community dynamics, even in disturbed sites.     

Modelling lake cyanobacterial blooms: Disentangling the climate‐driven impacts of changing mixed depth and water temperature

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Influence of changes in salinity and light intensity on growth of phytoplankton communities from the Schelde river and estuary (Belgium/The Netherlands)

In the Schelde continuum, a succession in the phytoplankton community is observed along the transition from the river to the freshwater tidal reaches of the estuary and from the freshwater to brackish reaches of the estuary. The goal of this study was to experimentally evaluate the contribution of changes in salinity and light climate to this succession. In summer 2000 and in spring 2001, phytoplankton communities from the river, the freshwater tidal reaches and the brackish reaches of the estuary were incubated under high or low light intensities and exposed to a change in salinity. HPLC analysis was used to evaluate the response of different algal groups to changes in light intensity and salinity. When incubated at a light intensity corresponding to the mean underwater light intensity of the freshwater tidal reaches, growth of phytoplankton from the river as well as from freshwater tidal reaches was significantly lower than when incubated at a light intensity corresponding to the mean underwater light intensity of the river. The phytoplankton community from the freshwater tidal reaches did not appear to be better adapted to low light intensities than the phytoplankton community from the river. Although diatoms were expected to be less sensitive to a reduction in light intensity than green algae, the opposite response was observed. Freshwater and brackish water phytoplankton were negatively affected by respectively an increase or decrease in salinity. However, the effect of salinity was not strong enough to explain the disappearance of freshwater and brackish water phytoplankton between a salinity of 0.5 and 10 psu, suggesting that other factors also play a role. In the freshwater phytoplankton communities from the river and the freshwater tidal reaches, green algae and diatoms responded in a similar way to an increase in salinity. In the brackish water phytoplankton community, fucoxanthin displayed a different response to salinity than lutein and chlorophyll a.     

Community composition has greater impact on the functioning of marine phytoplankton communities than ocean acidification

Ecosystem functioning is simultaneously affected by changes in community composition and environmental change such as increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) and subsequent ocean acidification. However, it largely remains uncertain how the effects of these factors compare to each other. Addressing this question, we experimentally tested the hypothesis that initial community composition and elevated CO₂ are equally important to the regulation of phytoplankton biomass. We full‐factorially exposed three compositionally different marine phytoplankton communities to two different CO₂ levels and examined the effects and relative importance (ω²) of the two factors and their interaction on phytoplankton biomass at bloom peak. The results showed that initial community composition had a significantly greater impact than elevated CO₂ on phytoplankton biomass, which varied largely among communities. We suggest that the different initial ratios between cyanobacteria, diatoms, and dinoflagellates might be the key for the varying competitive and thus functional outcome among communities. Furthermore, the results showed that depending on initial community composition elevated CO₂ selected for larger sized diatoms, which led to increased total phytoplankton biomass. This study highlights the relevance of initial community composition, which strongly drives the functional outcome, when assessing impacts of climate change on ecosystem functioning. In particular, the increase in phytoplankton biomass driven by the gain of larger sized diatoms in response to elevated CO₂ potentially has strong implications for nutrient cycling and carbon export in future oceans.     

Long‐term change of phytoplankton in Lake Kivu: The rise of the greens

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浅水湖泊浮水植物芡实收割对浮游植物群落的影响

浅水湖泊生态系统正遭受广泛而强烈的人为干扰,但是对收割水生植物干扰的研究甚少。于2019年8月对芡实过度生长的陈瑶湖进行通道式分区收割工程,分析了收割芡实（Euryale ferox）前后不同处理组浮游植物群落的变化。研究期间共鉴定出浮游植物6门47属72种,其中收割前63种,收割后71种。收割后浮游植物的细胞密度和生物量均高于收割前,分别增加了39.78%和5.09%。收割芡实导致陈瑶湖浮游植物群落为由蓝藻-绿藻-硅藻-隐藻群落转变为蓝藻-绿藻-硅藻群落。其中蓝藻细胞密度和生物量显著高于收割前（P<0.05）,归因于有害蓝藻（铜绿微囊藻Microcystis aeruginosa、水华束丝藻Aphanizomenon flos-aquae、小颤藻Oscillatoria tenuis、卷曲鱼腥藻Dolicospermum circinale、小席藻Phormidium tenu）的增加。收割还导致了硅藻群落由附生型向浮游型硅藻的转变,表现为尖针杆藻（Ulnaria acus）减少,而颗粒直链藻极狭变种（Aulacoseira granulata var.angustissima）、梅尼小环藻（Cyclotella meneghiniana）增加。在芡实收割过程中,未收割组和河道的浮游植物群落结构在时空分布上无显著性差异（P>0.05）,但收割组在收割后的不同阶段内差异较为明显,其细胞密度和生物量随着收割实验的结束逐渐降低。浮游植物与环境因子的相关性分析表明,水生植被覆盖度、总磷、总氮、溶解氧和叶绿素a浓度是影响浮游植物细胞密度和生物量变化的主要环境因子。综合陈瑶湖水质状态,本研究认为收割芡实并不能缓解浅水湖泊富营养化状况,研究结果为浅水湖泊水生植被的管理提供理论依据。     

Sequential rather than interactive effects of multiple stressors as drivers of phytoplankton community change in a large lake

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Increases in lake phytoplankton biomass caused by future climate‐driven changes to seasonal river flow

For the many lakes world‐wide with short residence times, changes to the rate of water throughput may have important effects on lake ecology. We studied relationships between current and predicted residence times and phytoplankton biomass using a eutrophic lake in the north‐west of England with an annual residence time averaging about 20 days, as a test case. Using 32 years of recent hydrological flow data for Bassenthwaite Lake, multiple sets of scaled flow for each year, and the process‐based phytoplankton response model, PROTECH, we modelled the effects of changing river flow on phytoplankton biomass in the lake. The impact on biomass was shown to depend on seasonal changes in flow rather than annual changes. Furthermore, there was a qualitative difference in impact depending on whether the nutrient loading to the lake came principally from flow‐independent sources, or from flow‐dependent ones. Predictions for changes in river flow under future climate scenarios in the north‐west of England have suggested that, despite little change in the annual flow magnitude, there will be a shift to greater flow in the winter and lesser flow in the summer. Applying these flow predictions to our modelling of Bassenthwaite Lake revealed that, with flow‐independent nutrient loading, and no overall increase in nutrient load, phytoplankton abundance in the summer could increase by up to 70%, including an increased proportion of Cyanobacteria. Conversely, were the loading completely dependent on the flow, the biomass would fall. In many parts of the world, river flow is expected to decrease in the summer even more than in England, suggesting these areas may expect substantial changes to seasonal phytoplankton biomass as a result of climate‐driven changes to seasonal river flow. Such changes would be in addition to any other changes owing to warming effects or eutrophication.     

Analysis of candidate gene expression patterns of adult male <Emphasis Type="Italic">Macrobrachium rosenbergii</Emphasis> morphotypes in response to a social dominance hierarchy

Because phytoplankton communities exhibit seasonal patterns driven by changes in physical factors, grazing pressure, and nutrient limitations, climate change, in combination with local phosphorus management policies are expected to impact phytoplankton annual dynamic. We used long-term monitoring data from Lake Geneva (from 1974 to 2010) to test if changes in phytoplankton seasonal succession across years is related to re-oligotrophication, inter-annual variability in thermal conditions, and Daphnia sp. density. We used a Bayesian method to identify species assemblages and wavelet analysis to detect transient dynamics in seasonal periodicity. A decrease in phosphorus concentrations appeared to play a major role in the inter-annual replacement of species assemblages. Furthermore, some species assemblages exhibited a change in their seasonal periodicity that was most likely induced by changes in Daphnia sp. density. Finally, we demonstrated that flexibility in the pattern of phytoplankton seasonal successions played a stabilizing role at the community level. The results suggest that phenology and inter-annual changes in seasonal dynamics of phytoplankton assemblages are important components to consider for explaining long-term variability in phytoplankton community.     

Short-term interactive effects of ultraviolet radiation,carbon dioxide and nutrient enrichment on phytoplankton in a shallow coastal lagoon

The main goal of this study was to evaluate short-term interactions between increased CO₂, UVR and inorganic macronutrients (N, P and Si) on summer phytoplankton assemblages in the Ria Formosa coastal lagoon (SW Iberia), subjected to intense anthropogenic pressures and highly vulnerable to climate change. A multifactorial experiment using 20 different nutrient-enriched microcosms exposed to different spectral and CO₂ conditions was designed. Before and after a 24-h in situ incubation, phytoplankton abundance and composition were analysed. Impacts and interactive effects of high CO₂, UVR and nutrients varied among different functional groups. Increased UVR had negative effects on diatoms and cyanobacteria and positive effects on cryptophytes, whereas increased CO₂ inhibited cyanobacteria but increased cryptophyte growth. A positive synergistic interaction between CO₂ and UVR was observed for diatoms; high CO₂ counteracted the negative effects of UVR under ambient nutrient concentrations. Nutrient enrichments suppressed the negative effects of high CO₂ and UVR on cyanobacteria and diatoms, respectively. Beneficial effects of CO₂ were observed for diatoms and cryptophytes under combined additions of nitrate and ammonium, suggesting that growth may be limited by DIC availability when the primary limitation by nitrogen is alleviated. Beneficial effects of high CO₂ and UVR in diatoms were also induced or intensified by ammonium additions.     

Trends in tuna carbon isotopes suggest global changes in pelagic phytoplankton communities

Considerable uncertainty remains over how increasing atmospheric CO₂ and anthropogenic climate changes are affecting open‐ocean marine ecosystems from phytoplankton to top predators. Biological time series data are thus urgently needed for the world's oceans. Here, we use the carbon stable isotope composition of tuna to provide a first insight into the existence of global trends in complex ecosystem dynamics and changes in the oceanic carbon cycle. From 2000 to 2015, considerable declines in δ¹³C values of 0.8‰–2.5‰ were observed across three tuna species sampled globally, with more substantial changes in the Pacific Ocean compared to the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Tuna recorded not only the Suess effect, that is, fossil fuel‐derived and isotopically light carbon being incorporated into marine ecosystems, but also recorded profound changes at the base of marine food webs. We suggest a global shift in phytoplankton community structure, for example, a reduction in ¹³C‐rich phytoplankton such as diatoms, and/or a change in phytoplankton physiology during this period, although this does not rule out other concomitant changes at higher levels in the food webs. Our study establishes tuna δ¹³C values as a candidate essential ocean variable to assess complex ecosystem responses to climate change at regional to global scales and over decadal timescales. Finally, this time series will be invaluable in calibrating and validating global earth system models to project changes in marine biota.     

Climate warming is associated with smaller body size and shorter lifespans in moose near their southern range limit

Despite the importance of body size for individual fitness, population dynamics and community dynamics, the influence of climate change on growth and body size is inadequately understood, particularly for long‐lived vertebrates. Although temporal trends in body size have been documented, it remains unclear whether these changes represent the adverse impact of climate change (environmental stress constraining phenotypes) or its mitigation (via phenotypic plasticity or evolution). Concerns have also been raised about whether climate change is indeed the causal agent of these phenotypic shifts, given the length of time‐series analysed and that studies often do not evaluate – and thereby sufficiently rule out – other potential causes. Here, we evaluate evidence for climate‐related changes in adult body size (indexed by skull size) over a 4–decade period for a population of moose (Alces alces) near the southern limit of their range whilst also considering changes in density, predation, and human activities. In particular, we document: (i) a trend of increasing winter temperatures and concurrent decline in skull size (decline of 19% for males and 13% for females) and (ii) evidence of a negative relationship between skull size and winter temperatures during the first year of life. These patterns could be plausibly interpreted as an adaptive phenotypic response to climate warming given that latitudinal/temperature clines are often accepted as evidence of adaptation to local climate. However, we also observed: (iii) that moose with smaller skulls had shorter lifespans, (iv) a reduction in lifespan over the 4‐decade study period, and (v) a negative relationship between lifespan and winter temperatures during the first year of life. Those observations indicate that this phenotypic change is not an adaptive response to climate change. However, this decline in lifespan was not accompanied by an obvious change in population dynamics, suggesting that climate change may affect population dynamics and life‐histories differently.     

Local factors control the community composition of cyanobacteria in lakes while heterotrophic bacteria follow a neutral model

1. Neutral community models are derived from the proposition that basic probabilities of species loss (extinction, emigration) and gain (immigration, speciation) explain biological community structure, such that species with many individuals are very likely to be widespread. Niche models on the other hand assume that interactions between species and differential resource use mediate species coexistence, thus invoking environmental factors to explain community patterns. 2. In this study, we compared neutral and niche models to test how much of the spatial variability of assemblages of heterotrophic bacteria and phytoplankton in 13 lakes they could explain. Analysis of phytoplankton was restricted to cyanobacteria, so that they could be studied with the same molecular fingerprinting method, automated ribosomal intergenic spaces analysis (ARISA), as heterotrophic bacteria. We determined local biotic and abiotic lake variables as well as lake age, glacial history and distance between sites. 3. The neutral community model had a good fit to the community composition of heterotrophic bacteria (R² = 0.69), whereas it could not produce a significant model for the community composition of cyanobacteria. 4. The community composition of cyanobacteria was instead correlated to environmental variables. The best model, a combination of total organic carbon, biomass of eukaryotic phytoplankton, pH and conductivity, could explain 8% of the variation. In contrast, variation in the community composition of heterotrophic bacteria was not predicted by any of the environmental variables. Historical and spatial variables were not correlated to the community composition of either group. 5. The pattern found for heterotrophic bacteria suggests that stochastic processes are important. The correlation of cyanobacteria with local environmental variables alone is consistent with the niche model. We suggest that cyanobacteria, a group of organisms containing bloom‐forming species, may be less likely to fit a neutral community model, since these blooms are usually triggered by a particular combination of environmental conditions.     

Riverine transport and nutrient inputs affect phytoplankton communities in a coastal embayment

1. Rivers often transport phytoplankton to coastal embayments and introduce nutrients that can enrich coastal plankton communities. We investigated the effects of the Nottawasaga River on the nearshore (i.e. within 500 μm of shore) phytoplankton composition along a 10-km transect of Nottawasaga Bay, Lake Huron in 2015 and 2016. Imaging flow cytometry was used to identify and enumerate algal taxa, which were resolved at sizes larger than small nanoplankton (i.e. >5 μm). Multivariate analysis (perMANOVA and redundancy analysis) and a dilution model were used to examine how nutrients and the transport of algal taxa affected community composition in the bay.
2. Sampling stations with different percentages of river water had significantly different phytoplankton communities. Phytoplankton community composition was also strongly associated with nutrients, including total phosphorus, which also varied with the percentage of river water. The majority of the 51 phytoplankton taxa identified in 2016 had numerical abundances in the bay that could be explained simply by the dilution of incoming river water.
3. Phytoplankton transported from the river had a higher proportion of edible-sized cells (<30 μm), particularly in summer when colonial cyanobacteria were numerically dominant in the bay. Six taxa were more abundant than expected from the dilution of river water and included some cyanobacteria with late summer maxima. Five of the taxa that were transported from the river were less abundant than expected in the bay.
4. Whereas impacts of fertilisation due to the characteristically higher nutrient concentration in the river are to be expected, the strong and highly correlated effects of transport within the narrow coastal band of this study largely concealed any distinct fertilisation effects.
5. Riverine inputs may strongly influence the nearshore assemblage of phytoplankton in oligotrophic embayments in large lakes, creating hotspots for productivity, species turnover, and trophic dynamics.

     

Consequences of changes in thermal regime for plankton diversity and trait composition in a polymictic lake: a matter of temporal scale

1. Changes in plankton species diversity and community structure as a result of global warming are of growing concern in ecological studies, as these properties contribute substantially to key ecosystem processes. 2. We analysed the effect of short‐term temperature rise and changes in the thermal regime during summer on plankton diversity of the eutrophic and polymictic Müggelsee in Germany, from 26 years of summer records (1982–2007). We tested for changes in community properties, such as species richness, evenness and population size of phyto‐ and zooplankton, during alternating periods of thermal stratification and mixing, which were between 2 and 8 weeks long. Moreover, we tested for overall long‐term temporal trends in annual averages of the community properties during stratified and mixed events. 3. We found that the overall number of stratification events increased significantly across the study period. When the lake was stratified, consistently higher surface water temperatures and lower epilimnetic nutrient concentrations were found. As the length of thermal stratification increased, the phytoplankton shifted towards a higher proportion of buoyant cyanobacteria capable of N‐fixation (Aphanizomenon, Anabaena). Diatoms were at a disadvantage because of high temperature, exceeding their upper lethal limit and sedimentation losses. Zooplankton species with high thermal tolerances (i.e. Thermocyclops oithonoides, Thermocyclops crassus) and/or those that grow quickly at high temperatures (i.e. rotifers) became more common. 4. During periods of continuous mixing, the community remained largely unchanged, except for some minor increase in the biomass of diatoms. 5. While a noticeable shift towards N‐fixing cyanobacteria was observed with increasing length of stratified events, and rotifers and copepods became the main predators, there were minimal changes in diversity, except for an increase in cyclopoid copepods and a decrease in diatom diversity. As for cyanobacteria, the net short‐term effect on their diversity was neutral as a result of species replacements. In the long term, however, the diversity of cyanobacteria and cladocerans declined while that of rotifers increased. 6. Overall, our study presents a cautionary example of how we might fail to foresee the impact of climate‐induced changes on ecosystem processes if we restrict our studies to seasonal or yearly temporal scales, thus neglecting the impact of substantial changes operating at smaller temporal scales.