Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food‐limited Arctic herbivore

The cumulative effects of climate warming on herbivore vital rates and population dynamics are hard to predict, given that the expected effects differ between seasons. In the Arctic, warmer summers enhance plant growth which should lead to heavier and more fertile individuals in the autumn. Conversely, warm spells in winter with rainfall (rain‐on‐snow) can cause ‘icing’, restricting access to forage, resulting in starvation, lower survival and fecundity. As body condition is a ‘barometer’ of energy demands relative to energy intake, we explored the causes and consequences of variation in body mass of wild female Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) from 1994 to 2015, a period of marked climate warming. Late winter (April) body mass explained 88% of the between‐year variation in population growth rate, because it strongly influenced reproductive loss, and hence subsequent fecundity (92%), as well as survival (94%) and recruitment (93%). Autumn (October) body mass affected ovulation rates but did not affect fecundity. April body mass showed no long‐term trend (coefficient of variation, CV = 8.8%) and was higher following warm autumn (October) weather, reflecting delays in winter onset, but most strongly, and negatively, related to ‘rain‐on‐snow’ events. October body mass (CV = 2.5%) increased over the study due to higher plant productivity in the increasingly warm summers. Density‐dependent mass change suggested competition for resources in both winter and summer but was less pronounced in recent years, despite an increasing population size. While continued climate warming is expected to increase the carrying capacity of the high Arctic tundra, it is also likely to cause more frequent icing events. Our analyses suggest that these contrasting effects may cause larger seasonal fluctuations in body mass and vital rates. Overall our findings provide an important ‘missing’ mechanistic link in the current understanding of the population biology of a keystone species in a rapidly warming Arctic.     

气候因素对黑线姬鼠种群动态影响的非线性效应

受全球气候变化的影响,气候因素与害鼠种群变化之间的关系成为害鼠防治研究中的热点问题。以西安市长安区周边分布的黑线姬鼠为研究对象,通过标志重捕法进行种群动态监测,掌握其种群数量的动态变化规律,并结合非线性的统计方法广义可加模型,对该地区2015—2018年黑线姬鼠种群密度和气候因素数据进行分析,探讨该鼠种群变化与气候因素之间的关系。结果表明,该地区黑线姬鼠种群数量总体显现为下降趋势。黑线姬鼠种群密度存在显著的正向自我调节效应(F_{1.00, 5.77}=27.062,P<0.01),且与上一月种群密度存在线性的正相关。当月平均温度与该鼠种群密度之间存在显著的非线性效应(F_{1.90, 5.77} =4.696,P<0.05),两者之间显现为钟型关系,当温度<21℃时,两者之间显现为正相关,黑线姬鼠种群密度随温度的升高而升高,反之显现为负相关。当月累计降雨量与其种群密度之间也存在显著的非线性效应(F_{1.87, 5.77}=3.879,P<0.05),同样,两者之间也显现为钟型关系,当降雨量>90 mm时,...     

The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition

Warmer climates are predicted to increase bark beetle outbreak frequency, severity, and range. Even in favorable climates, however, outbreaks can decelerate due to resource limitation, which necessitates the inclusion of competition for limited resources in analyses of climatic effects on populations. We evaluated several hypotheses of how climate impacts mountain pine beetle reproduction using an extensive 9‐year dataset, in which nearly 10,000 trees were sampled across a region of approximately 90,000 km², that was recently invaded by the mountain pine beetle in Alberta, Canada. Our analysis supports the hypothesis of a positive effect of warmer winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle overwinter survival and provides evidence that the increasing trend in minimum winter temperatures over time in North America is an important driver of increased mountain pine beetle reproduction across the region. Although we demonstrate a consistent effect of warmer minimum winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle reproductive rates that is evident at the landscape and regional scales, this effect is overwhelmed by the effect of competition for resources within trees at the site level. Our results suggest that detection of the effects of a warming climate on bark beetle populations at small spatial scales may be difficult without accounting for negative density dependence due to competition for resources.     

Ecological change predicts population dynamics and genetic diversity over 120 000 years

While ecological effects on short‐term population dynamics are well understood, their effects over millennia are difficult to demonstrate and convincing evidence is scant. Using coalescent methods, we analysed past population dynamics of three lizard species (Psammodromus hispanicus, P. edwardsianus, P. occidentalis) and linked the results with climate change data covering the same temporal horizon (120 000 years). An increase in population size over time was observed in two species, and in P. occidentalis, no change was observed. Temporal changes in temperature seasonality and the maximum temperature of the warmest month were congruent with changes in population dynamics observed for the three species and both variables affected population density, either directly or indirectly (via a life‐history trait). These results constitute the first solid link between ecological change and long‐term population dynamics. The results moreover suggest that ecological change leaves genetic signatures that can be retrospectively traced, providing evidence that ecological change is a crucial driver of genetic diversity and speciation.     

Conservation of genetic diversity hotspots of the high‐valued relic yellowhorn (Xanthoceras sorbifolium) considering climate change predictions

Genetic structure and major climate factors may contribute to the distribution of genetic diversity of a highly valued oil tree species Xanthoceras sorbifolium (yellowhorn). Long‐term over utilization along with climate change is affecting the viability of yellowhorn wild populations. To preserve the species known and unknown valuable gene pools, the identification of genetic diversity “hotspots” is a prerequisite for their consideration as in situ conservation high priority. Chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) diversity was high among 38 natural populations (H_d = 0.717, K = 4.616, Tajmas’ D = ?0.22) and characterized by high genetic divergence (F_ST = 0.765) and relatively low gene flow (N_m = 0.03), indicating populations isolation reflecting the species’ habitat fragmentation and inbreeding depression. Six out of the studied 38 populations are defined as genetic diversity “hotspots.” The number and geographic direction of cpDNA mutation steps supported the species southwest to northeast migration history. Climatic factors such as extreme minimum temperature over 30 years indicated that the identified genetic “hotspots” are expected to experience 5°C temperature increase in next following 50 years. The results identified vulnerable genetic diversity “hotspots” and provided fundamental information for the species’ future conservation and breeding activities under the anticipated climate change. More specifically, the role of breeding as a component of a gene resource management strategy aimed at fulfilling both utilization and conservation goals.     

Climate‐associated population declines reverse recovery and threaten future of an iconic high‐elevation plant

Although climate change is predicted to place mountain‐top and other narrowly endemic species at severe risk of extinction, the ecological processes involved in such extinctions are still poorly resolved. In addition, much of this biodiversity loss will likely go unobserved, and therefore largely unappreciated. The Haleakalā silversword is restricted to a single volcano summit in Hawai‘i, but is a highly charismatic giant rosette plant that is viewed by 1–2 million visitors annually. We link detailed local climate data to a lengthy demographic record, and combine both with a population‐wide assessment of recent plant mortality and recruitment, to show that after decades of strong recovery following successful management, this iconic species has entered a period of substantial climate‐associated decline. Mortality has been highest at the lower end of the distributional range, where most silverswords occur, and the strong association of annual population growth rates with patterns of precipitation suggests an increasing frequency of lethal water stress. Local climate data confirm trends toward warmer and drier conditions on the mountain, and signify a bleak outlook for silverswords if these trends continue. The silversword example foreshadows trouble for diversity in other biological hotspots, and illustrates how even well‐protected and relatively abundant species may succumb to climate‐induced stresses.     

Long‐term dynamics in microbial eukaryotes communities: a palaeolimnological view based on sedimentary DNA

Assessing the extent to which changes in lacustrine biodiversity are affected by anthropogenic or climatic forces requires extensive palaeolimnological data. We used high‐throughput sequencing to generate time‐series data encompassing over 2200 years of microbial eukaryotes (protists and Fungi) diversity changes from the sedimentary DNA record of two lakes (Lake Bourget in French Alps and Lake Igaliku in Greenland). From 176 samples, we sequenced a large diversity of microbial eukaryotes, with a total 16 386 operational taxonomic units distributed within 50 phylogenetic groups. Thus, microbial groups, such as Chlorophyta, Dinophyceae, Haptophyceae and Ciliophora, that were not previously considered in lacustrine sediment record analyses appeared to be potential biological markers of trophic status changes. Our data suggest that shifts in relative abundance of extant species, including shifts between rare and abundant taxa, drive ecosystem responses to local and global environmental changes. Community structure shift events were concomitant with major climate variations (more particularly in Lake Igaliku). However, this study shows that the impacts of climatic fluctuations may be overpassed by the high‐magnitude eutrophication impacts, as observed in the eutrophicated Lake Bourget. Overall, our data show that DNA preserved in sediment constitutes a precious archive of information on past biodiversity changes.     

Pollen viability of Euro‐Mediterranean orchids under different storage conditions: The possible effects of climate change

• The future impact of climate change and a warmer world is a matter of great concern. We therefore aimed to evaluate the effects of temperature on pollen viability and fruit set of Mediterranean orchids.
• The in vitro and controlled pollination experiments were performed to evaluate the ability of pollinia stored at lower and higher temperatures to germinate and produce fruits and seeds containing viable embryos.
• In all of the examined orchids, pollen stored at ?20 °C remained fully viable for up to 3 years, reducing its percentage germination from year 4 onwards. Pollinia stored at higher temperatures had a drastic reduction in vitality after 2 days at 41–44 °C, while pollinia stored at 47–50 °C did not show any pollen tube growth.
• The different levels of pollen viability duration among the examined orchids can be related to their peculiar reproductive biology and pollination ecology. The germinability of pollinia stored at lower temperatures for long periods suggests that orchid pollinia can be conserved ex situ. In contrast, higher temperatures can have harmful effects on the vitality of pollen and consequently on reproductive success of the plants. To our knowledge, this is the first report demonstrating the effects of global change on orchid pollen, and on pollen ability to tolerate, or not, higher air temperatures. Although vegetative reproduction allows orchids to survive a few consecutive warm years, higher temperatures for several consecutive years can have dramatic effects on reproductive success of orchids.

     

Disturbance history mediates climate change effects on subtropical forest biomass and dynamics

The responses of forest communities to interacting anthropogenic disturbances like climate change and logging are poorly known. Subtropical forests have been heavily modified by humans and their response to climate change is poorly understood. We investigated the 9‐year change observed in a mixed conifer‐hardwood Atlantic forest mosaic that included both mature and selectively logged forest patches in subtropical South America. We used demographic monitoring data within 10 1 ha plots that were subjected to distinct management histories (plots logged until 1955, until 1987, and unlogged) to test the hypothesis that climate change affected forest structure and dynamics differentially depending on past disturbances. We determined the functional group of all species based on life‐history affinities as well as many functional traits like leaf size, specific leaf area, wood density, total height, stem slenderness, and seed size data for the 66 most abundant species. Analysis of climate data revealed that minimum temperatures and rainfall have been increasing in the last few decades of the 20th century. Floristic composition differed mainly with logging history categories, with only minor change over the nine annual census intervals. Aboveground biomass increased in all plots, but increases were higher in mature unlogged forests, which showed signs of forest growth associated with increased CO₂, temperature, and rainfall/treefall gap disturbance at the same time. Logged forests showed arrested succession as indicated by reduced abundances of Pioneers and biomass‐accumulators like Large Seeded Pioneers and Araucaria, as well as reduced functional diversity. Management actions aimed at creating regeneration opportunities for long‐lived pioneers are needed to restore community functional diversity, and ecosystem services such as increased aboveground biomass accumulation. We conclude that the effects of climate drivers on the dynamics of Brazilian mixed Atlantic forests vary with land‐use legacies, and can differ importantly from the ones prevalent in better known tropical forests.     

Contrasting effects of high‐intensity photosynthetically active radiation on two bloom‐forming dinoflagellates

While light limitation can inhibit bloom formation in dinoflagellates, the potential for high‐intensity photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) to inhibit blooms by causing stress or damage has not been well‐studied. We measured the effects of high‐intensity PAR on the bloom‐forming dinoflagellates Alexandrium fundyense and Heterocapsa rotundata. Various physiological parameters (photosynthetic efficiency F_v/F_m, cell permeability, dimethylsulfoniopropionate [DMSP], cell volume, and chlorophyll‐a content) were measured before and after exposure to high‐intensity natural sunlight in short‐term light stress experiments. In addition, photosynthesis‐irradiance (P‐E) responses were compared for cells grown at different light levels to assess the capacity for photophysiological acclimation in each species. Experiments revealed distinct species‐specific responses to high PAR. While high light decreased F_v/F_m in both species, A. fundyense showed little additional evidence of light stress in short‐term experiments, although increased membrane permeability and intracellular DMSP indicated a response to handling. P‐E responses further indicated a high light‐adapted species with Chl‐a inversely proportional to growth irradiance and no evidence of photoinhibition; reduced maximum per‐cell photosynthesis rates suggest a trade‐off between photoprotection and C fixation in high light‐acclimated cells. Heterocapsa rotundata cells, in contrast, swelled in response to high light and sometimes lysed in short‐term experiments, releasing DMSP. P‐E responses confirmed a low light‐adapted species with high photosynthetic efficiencies associated with trade‐offs in the form of substantial photoinhibition and a lack of plasticity in Chl‐a content. These contrasting responses illustrate that high light constrains dinoflagellate community composition through species‐specific stress effects, with consequences for bloom formation and ecological interactions within the plankton.     

Food quantity–quality co‐limitation: Interactive effects of dietary carbon and essential lipid supply on population growth of a freshwater rotifer

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The implication of irrigation in climate change impact assessment: a European‐wide study

This study evaluates the impacts of projected climate change on irrigation requirements and yields of six crops (winter wheat, winter barley, rapeseed, grain maize, potato, and sugar beet) in Europe. Furthermore, the uncertainty deriving from consideration of irrigation, CO₂ effects on crop growth and transpiration, and different climate change scenarios in climate change impact assessments is quantified. Net irrigation requirement (NIR) and yields of the six crops were simulated for a baseline (1982–2006) and three SRES scenarios (B1, B2 and A1B, 2040–2064) under rainfed and irrigated conditions, using a process‐based crop model, SIMPLACE . We found that projected climate change decreased NIR of the three winter crops in northern Europe (up to 81 mm), but increased NIR of all the six crops in the Mediterranean regions (up to 182 mm yr^?1). Climate change increased yields of the three winter crops and sugar beet in middle and northern regions (up to 36%), but decreased their yields in Mediterranean countries (up to 81%). Consideration of CO₂ effects can alter the direction of change in NIR for irrigated crops in the south and of yields for C3 crops in central and northern Europe. Constraining the model to rainfed conditions for spring crops led to a negative bias in simulating climate change impacts on yields (up to 44%), which was proportional to the irrigation ratio of the simulation unit. Impacts on NIR and yields were generally consistent across the three SRES scenarios for the majority of regions in Europe. We conclude that due to the magnitude of irrigation and CO₂ effects, they should both be considered in the simulation of climate change impacts on crop production and water availability, particularly for crops and regions with a high proportion of irrigated crop area.     

Post‐traumatic stress disorder and beyond: an overview of rodent stress models

Post‐traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a psychiatric disorder of high prevalence and major socioeconomic impact. Patients suffering from PTSD typically present intrusion and avoidance symptoms and alterations in arousal, mood and cognition that last for more than 1 month. Animal models are an indispensable tool to investigate underlying pathophysiological pathways and, in particular, the complex interplay of neuroendocrine, genetic and environmental factors that may be responsible for PTSD induction. Since the 1960s, numerous stress paradigms in rodents have been developed, based largely on Seligman's seminal formulation of ‘learned helplessness’ in canines. Rodent stress models make use of physiological or psychological stressors such as foot shock, underwater trauma, social defeat, early life stress or predator‐based stress. Apart from the brief exposure to an acute stressor, chronic stress models combining a succession of different stressors for a period of several weeks have also been developed. Chronic stress models in rats and mice may elicit characteristic PTSD‐like symptoms alongside, more broadly, depressive‐like behaviours. In this review, the major existing rodent models of PTSD are reviewed in terms of validity, advantages and limitations; moreover, significant results and implications for future research—such as the role of FKBP5, a mediator of the glucocorticoid stress response and promising target for therapeutic interventions—are discussed.     

Drought tolerance and growth in populations of a wide‐ranging tree species indicate climate change risks for the boreal north

Choosing drought‐tolerant planting stock in reforestation programs may help adapt forests to climate change. To inform such reforestation strategies, we test lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Doug. ex Loud. var latifolia Englm.) population response to drought and infer potential benefits of a northward transfer of seeds from drier, southern environments. The objective is addressed by combining dendroecological growth analysis with long‐term genetic field trials. Over 500 trees originating from 23 populations across western North America were destructively sampled in three experimental sites in southern British Columbia, representing a climate warming scenario. Growth after 32 years from provenances transferred southward or northward over long distances was significantly lower than growth of local populations. All populations were affected by a severe natural drought event in 2002. The provenances from the most southern locations showed the highest drought tolerance but low productivity. Local provenances were productive and drought tolerant. Provenances from the boreal north showed lower productivity and less drought tolerance on southern test sites than all other sources, implying that maladaptation to drought may prevent boreal populations from taking full advantage of more favorable growing conditions under projected climate change.     

Eco‐evolutionary responses of Bromus tectorum to climate change: implications for biological invasions

How plant populations, communities, and ecosystems respond to climate change is a critical focus in ecology today. The responses of introduced species may be especially rapid. Current models that incorporate temperature and precipitation suggest that future Bromus tectorum invasion risk is low for the Colorado Plateau. With a field warming experiment at two sites in southeastern Utah, we tested this prediction over 4 years, measuring B. tectorum phenology, biomass, and reproduction. In a complimentary greenhouse study, we assessed whether changes in field B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output influence offspring performance. We found that following a wet winter and early spring, the timing of spring growth initiation, flowering, and summer senescence all advanced in warmed plots at both field sites and the shift in phenology was progressively larger with greater warming. Earlier green‐up and development was associated with increases in B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output, likely due early spring growth, when soil moisture was not limiting, and a lengthened growing season. Seeds collected from plants grown in warmed plots had higher biomass and germination rates and lower mortality than seeds from ambient plots. However, in the following two dry years, we observed no differences in phenology between warmed and ambient plots. In addition, warming had a generally negative effect on B. tectorum biomass and reproduction in dry years and this negative effect was significant in the plots that received the highest warming treatment. In contrast to models that predict negative responses of B. tectorum to warmer climate on the Colorado Plateau, the effects of warming were more nuanced, relied on background climate, and differed between the two field sites. Our results highlight the importance of considering the interacting effects of temperature, precipitation, and site‐specific characteristics such as soil texture, on plant demography and have direct implications for B. tectorum invasion dynamics on the Colorado Plateau.     

Assessing forest vulnerability to climate warming using a process‐based model of tree growth: bad prospects for rear‐edges

Growth models can be used to assess forest vulnerability to climate warming. If global warming amplifies water deficit in drought‐prone areas, tree populations located at the driest and southernmost distribution limits (rear‐edges) should be particularly threatened. Here, we address these statements by analyzing and projecting growth responses to climate of three major tree species (silver fir, Abies alba; Scots pine, Pinus sylvestris; and mountain pine, Pinus uncinata) in mountainous areas of NE Spain. This region is subjected to Mediterranean continental conditions, it encompasses wide climatic, topographic and environmental gradients, and, more importantly, it includes rear‐edges of the continuous distributions of these tree species. We used tree‐ring width data from a network of 110 forests in combination with the process‐based Vaganov–Shashkin‐Lite growth model and climate–growth analyses to forecast changes in tree growth during the 21st century. Climatic projections were based on four ensembles CO₂ emission scenarios. Warm and dry conditions during the growing season constrain silver fir and Scots pine growth, particularly at the species rear‐edge. By contrast, growth of high‐elevation mountain pine forests is enhanced by climate warming. The emission scenario (RCP 8.5) corresponding to the most pronounced warming (+1.4 to 4.8 °C) forecasted mean growth reductions of ?10.7% and ?16.4% in silver fir and Scots pine, respectively, after 2050. This indicates that rising temperatures could amplify drought stress and thus constrain the growth of silver fir and Scots pine rear‐edge populations growing at xeric sites. Contrastingly, mountain pine growth is expected to increase by +12.5% due to a longer and warmer growing season. The projections of growth reduction in silver fir and Scots pine portend dieback and a contraction of their species distribution areas through potential local extinctions of the most vulnerable driest rear‐edge stands. Our modeling approach provides accessible tools to evaluate forest vulnerability to warmer conditions.