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1.
Pooja Nitin Saraf;Jyoti Srivastava;François Munoz;Bipin Charles;Pujarini Samal;Mohammad Firoze Quamar; 《Nordic Journal of Botany》2024,2024(6):e04266
The present study utilized an ensemble modelling approach to predict the distribution of Diospyros melanoxylon under present, past (last glacial maximum (LGM), ~ 22 000 years BP, middle Holocene (MH) ~ 6000 years BP) and future climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6 and 8.5 for 2050s and 2070s). The annual mean temperature, mean temperature of the wettest quarter and annual precipitations were the most critical parameters that chiefly influence the distribution of D. melanoxylon. The ensemble model rendered high accuracy with AUC = 0.93, TSS = 0.74 and Kappa = 0.71. Past projections of D. melanoxylon indicated a widespread distribution during LGM and MH suggesting its adaptability to semi-dry as well as warm and humid climate, respectively. Presence of fossil pollen evidence of D. melanoxylon in the suitable habitats derived through past projections in this study complements the model results and marks occurrences of the species during LGM and MH. By 2050s and 2070s (RCP 8.5), there would be a decline in the distribution by only 0.4% (13 622 km2) and 0.2% (6842 km2) of the extremely suitable habitats, respectively. The main factor leading to reduced habitat suitability is the anticipated rise in temperature and variations in seasonal precipitation patterns. Our findings, help in identifying the parts of the country which would be severely affected by future climate change scenarios and plan conservation strategies for this commercially important species to facilitate its growth in suitable habitats which are likely to sustain under future climatic conditions. 相似文献
2.
Heather L. Hulton VanTassel Michael D. Bell John Rotenberry Robert Johnson Michael F. Allen 《Ecology and evolution》2017,7(23):10326-10338
Many species have already experienced distributional shifts due to changing environmental conditions, and analyzing past shifts can help us to understand the influence of environmental stressors on a species as well as to analyze the effectiveness of conservation strategies. We aimed to (1) quantify regional habitat associations of the California gnatcatcher (Polioptila californica ); (2) describe changes in environmental variables and gnatcatcher distributions through time; (3) identify environmental drivers associated with habitat suitability changes; and (4) relate habitat suitability changes through time to habitat conservation plans. Southern California's Western Riverside County (WRC ), an approximately 4,675 km2 conservation planning area. We assessed environmental correlates of distributional shifts of the federally threatened California gnatcatcher (hereafter, gnatcatcher) using partitioned Mahalanobis D 2 niche modeling for three time periods: 1980–1997, 1998–2003, and 2004–2012, corresponding to distinct periods in habitat conservation planning. Highly suitable gnatcatcher habitat was consistently warmer and drier and occurred at a lower elevation than less suitable habitat and consistently had more CSS , less agriculture, and less chaparral. However, its relationship to development changed among periods, mainly due to the rapid change in this variable. Likewise, other aspects of highly suitable habitat changed among time periods, which became cooler and higher in elevation. The gnatcatcher lost 11.7% and 40.6% of highly suitable habitat within WRC between 1980–1997 to 1998–2003, and 1998–2003 to 2004–2012, respectively. Unprotected landscapes lost relatively more suitable habitat (?64.3%) than protected landscapes (30.5%). Over the past four decades, suitable habitat loss within WRC , especially between the second and third time periods, was associated with temperature‐related factors coupled with landscape development across coastal sage scrub habitat; however, development appears to be driving change more rapidly than climate change. Our study demonstrates the importance of providing protected lands for potential suitable habitat in future scenarios. 相似文献
3.
The upsurge in anthropogenic climate change has accelerated the habitat loss and fragmentation of wild animals and plants. The rare and endangered plants are important biodiversity elements. However, the lack of comprehensive and reliable information on the spatial distribution of these organisms has hampered holistic and efficient conservation management measures. We explored the consequences of climate change on the geographical distribution of Firmiana kwangsiensis (Malvaceae), an endangered species, to provide a reference for conservation, introduction, and cultivation of this species in new ecological zones. Modeling of the potential distribution of F. kwangsiensis under the current and two future climate scenarios in maximum entropy was performed based on 30 occurrence records and 27 environmental variables of the plant. We found that precipitation‐associated and temperature‐associated variables limited the potentially suitable habitats for F. kwangsiensis. Our model predicted 259,504 km2 of F. kwangsiensis habitat based on 25 percentile thresholds. However, the high suitable habitat for F. kwangsiensis is only about 41,027 km2. F. kwangsiensis is most distributed in Guangxi''s protected areas. However, the existing reserves are only 2.7% of the total suitable habitat and 4.2% of the high suitable habitat for the plant, lower than the average protection area in Guangxi (7.2%). This means the current protected areas network is insufficient, underlining the need for alternative conservation mechanisms to protect the plant habitat. Our findings will help identify additional F. kwangsiensis localities and potential habitats and inform the development and implementation of conservation, management, and cultivation practices of such rare tree species. 相似文献
4.
Reinhard Prestele Peter Alexander Mark D. A. Rounsevell Almut Arneth Katherine Calvin Jonathan Doelman David A. Eitelberg Kerstin Engström Shinichiro Fujimori Tomoko Hasegawa Petr Havlik Florian Humpenöder Atul K. Jain Tamás Krisztin Page Kyle Prasanth Meiyappan Alexander Popp Ronald D. Sands Rüdiger Schaldach Jan Schüngel Elke Stehfest Andrzej Tabeau Hans Van Meijl Jasper Van Vliet Peter H. Verburg 《Global Change Biology》2016,22(12):3967-3983
Model‐based global projections of future land‐use and land‐cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global‐scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity. 相似文献
5.
Natural and anthropogenic processes are causing extensive and rapid ecological, social, and economic changes in arid and semiarid ecosystems worldwide. Nowhere are these changes more evident than in the Great Basin of the western United States, a region of 400,000 km2 that largely is managed by federal agencies. Major drivers of ecosystems and human demographics of the Great Basin include human population growth, grazing by domestic livestock, extraction of minerals, development and production of energy, changes in fire and other disturbance regimes, and invasion of non-native annual plants. Exploration of alternative futures may increase the ability of management and policy to maximize the system's resistance and resilience to changes in climate, disturbance regimes, and anthropogenic perturbations. This special section examines the issues facing the Great Basin and then provides examples of approaches to predicting changes in land cover and avifaunal distributions under different management scenarios. Future sustainability of the Great Basin's natural and human systems requires strong, collaborative partnerships among research and management organizations that are capable of obtaining public support and financial resources and developing effective policies and institutional mechanisms. 相似文献
6.
Clémentine Préau Iris Nadeau Yann Sellier Francis Isselin-Nondedeu Romain Bertrand Marc Collas César Capinha Frédéric Grandjean 《Freshwater Biology》2020,65(2):304-315
- The white-clawed crayfish (Austropotamobius pallipes) is globally endangered due to the impacts of habitat modification and fragmentation, water pollution, climate change, and invasive species, particularly the signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus). These pressures have caused the decline of A. pallipes populations in Europe, demonstrating the importance of predicting the species' potential distribution under current and future conditions. Focusing on the watercourses of mainland France, we aimed to identify suitable areas for A. pallipes to guide the conservation of current populations and future introduction actions or protection measures.
- We applied ecological niche modelling to model the potential distribution of both A. pallipes and P. leniusculus and identified locations suitable for A. pallipes only. We also assessed the potential distribution of the species under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, respectively describing low-warming and high-warming conditions.
- We found that A. pallipes and P. leniusculus exploit equivalent niches in France. Despite this, under current conditions, about 5% of the study area simultaneously records a high suitability for A. pallipes and a low suitability for P. leniusculus and is therefore of significant conservation interest. This percentage remains relatively stable under RCP 2.6 for 2050 and 2100, but decreases to 2% under RCP 8.5 for 2100.
- Ecological niche modelling can supply crucial guidance for conservation actions aimed at protecting endangered species at a national scale by identifying sites most suitable for protection and sites where climate change and invasive species constitute a threat.
7.
Jens Leifeld Christof Ammann Albrecht Neftel Jürg Fuhrer 《Global Change Biology》2011,17(11):3366-3375
Assessment of soil carbon (C) stock changes over time is typically based on the application of two methods, namely (i) repeated soil inventory and (ii) determination of the ecosystem C budget or net biome productivity (NBP) by continuous measurement of CO2 exchange in combination with quantification of other C imports and exports. Here, we applied both methods in parallel to determine C stock changes of two temperate grassland fields previously converted from long‐term cropland. The grasslands differed in management intensity with either intensive management (high fertilization, frequent cutting) or extensive management (no fertilization, less frequent cutting). Soil organic C stocks (0–45 cm depth) were quantified at the beginning (2001) and the end (2006) of a 5 year observational period using the equivalent soil mass approach. For the same period and in both fields, NBP was quantified from net CO2 fluxes monitored using eddy covariance systems, and measured C import by organic fertilizer and C export by harvest. Both NBP and repeated soil inventories revealed a consistent and significant difference between management systems of 170 ± 48 and 253 ± 182 g C m?2 a?1, respectively. For both fields, the inventory method showed a tendency towards higher C loss/smaller C gain than NBP. In the extensive field, a significant C loss was observed by the inventory but not by the NBP approach. Thus neither flux measurements nor repeated soil sampling may be suitable for tracking absolute changes in SOC, but both give similar answers with respect to relative changes. 相似文献
8.
Joseph M. Northrup James W. Rivers Zhiqiang Yang Matthew G. Betts 《Global Change Biology》2019,25(5):1561-1575
Climate and land‐use changes are expected to be the primary drivers of future global biodiversity loss. Although theory suggests that these factors impact species synergistically, past studies have either focused on only one in isolation or have substituted space for time, which often results in confounding between drivers. Tests of synergistic effects require congruent time series on animal populations, climate change and land‐use change replicated across landscapes that span the gradient of correlations between the drivers of change. Using a unique time series of high‐resolution climate (measured as temperature and precipitation) and land‐use change (measured as forest change) data, we show that these drivers of global change act synergistically to influence forest bird population declines over 29 years in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Nearly half of the species examined had declined over this time. Populations declined most in response to loss of early seral and mature forest, with responses to loss of early seral forest amplified in landscapes that had warmed over time. In addition, birds declined more in response to loss of mature forest in areas that had dried over time. Climate change did not appear to impact populations in landscapes with limited habitat loss, except when those landscapes were initially warmer than the average landscape. Our results provide some of the first empirical evidence of synergistic effects of climate and land‐use change on animal population dynamics, suggesting accelerated loss of biodiversity in areas under pressure from multiple global change drivers. Furthermore, our findings suggest strong spatial variability in the impacts of climate change and highlight the need for future studies to evaluate multiple drivers simultaneously to avoid potential misattribution of effects. 相似文献
9.
为了解蒙古高原第三纪孑遗珍稀濒危物种蒙古扁桃（Amygdalus mongolica）潜在分布特征及其对未来气候变化的响应,利用121个蒙古扁桃种群分布点数据,选取气候和土壤变量,通过在R软件Biomod2建模平台构建物种综合适宜生境模型（CHS）,模拟当前气候条件和预测未来两个时期（2050S和2090S）共3种不同气候情景下（SSP1-2.6、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5）蒙古扁桃的潜在分布、时空演变特征及适宜生境迁移。结果显示：气候适宜性模型（
10.
Miquel De Cáceres Lluís Brotons Núria Aquilué Marie‐Josée Fortin 《Journal of Biogeography》2013,40(8):1535-1547
11.
Iwona Dullinger Andreas Gattringer Johannes Wessely Dietmar Moser Christoph Plutzar Wolfgang Willner Claudine Egger Veronika Gaube Helmut Haberl Andreas Mayer Andreas Bohner Christian Gilli Kathrin Pascher Franz Essl Stefan Dullinger 《Global Change Biology》2020,26(4):2336-2352
Climate and land‐use change jointly affect the future of biodiversity. Yet, biodiversity scenarios have so far concentrated on climatic effects because forecasts of land use are rarely available at appropriate spatial and thematic scales. Agent‐based models (ABMs) represent a potentially powerful but little explored tool for establishing thematically and spatially fine‐grained land‐use scenarios. Here, we use an ABM parameterized for 1,329 agents, mostly farmers, in a Central European model region, and simulate the changes to land‐use patterns resulting from their response to three scenarios of changing socio‐economic conditions and three scenarios of climate change until the mid of the century. Subsequently, we use species distribution models to, first, analyse relationships between the realized niches of 832 plant species and climatic gradients or land‐use types, respectively, and, second, to project consequent changes in potential regional ranges of these species as triggered by changes in both the altered land‐use patterns and the changing climate. We find that both drivers determine the realized niches of the studied plants, with land use having a stronger effect than any single climatic variable in the model. Nevertheless, the plants' future distributions appear much more responsive to climate than to land‐use changes because alternative future socio‐economic backgrounds have only modest impact on land‐use decisions in the model region. However, relative effects of climate and land‐use changes on biodiversity may differ drastically in other regions, especially where landscapes are still dominated by natural or semi‐natural habitat. We conclude that agent‐based modelling of land use is able to provide scenarios at scales relevant to individual species distribution and suggest that coupling ABMs with models of species' range change should be intensified to provide more realistic biodiversity forecasts. 相似文献
12.
Ryan M. Bright Kaiguang Zhao Robert B. Jackson Francesco Cherubini 《Global Change Biology》2015,21(9):3246-3266
By altering fluxes of heat, momentum, and moisture exchanges between the land surface and atmosphere, forestry and other land‐use activities affect climate. Although long recognized scientifically as being important, these so‐called biogeophysical forcings are rarely included in climate policies for forestry and other land management projects due to the many challenges associated with their quantification. Here, we review the scientific literature in the fields of atmospheric science and terrestrial ecology in light of three main objectives: (i) to elucidate the challenges associated with quantifying biogeophysical climate forcings connected to land use and land management, with a focus on the forestry sector; (ii) to identify and describe scientific approaches and/or metrics facilitating the quantification and interpretation of direct biogeophysical climate forcings; and (iii) to identify and recommend research priorities that can help overcome the challenges of their attribution to specific land‐use activities, bridging the knowledge gap between the climate modeling, forest ecology, and resource management communities. We find that ignoring surface biogeophysics may mislead climate mitigation policies, yet existing metrics are unlikely to be sufficient. Successful metrics ought to (i) include both radiative and nonradiative climate forcings; (ii) reconcile disparities between biogeophysical and biogeochemical forcings, and (iii) acknowledge trade‐offs between global and local climate benefits. We call for more coordinated research among terrestrial ecologists, resource managers, and coupled climate modelers to harmonize datasets, refine analytical techniques, and corroborate and validate metrics that are more amenable to analyses at the scale of an individual site or region. 相似文献
13.
Navin Ramankutty Jonathan A. Foley John Norman† Kevin McSweeney† 《Global Ecology and Biogeography》2002,11(5):377-392
Aim This study makes quantitative global estimates of land suitability for cultivation based on climate and soil constraints. It evaluates further the sensitivity of croplands to any possible changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Location The location is global, geographically explicit. Methods The methods used are spatial data synthesis and analysis and numerical modelling. Results There is a cropland ‘reserve’ of 120%, mainly in tropical South America and Africa. Our climate sensitivity analysis indicates that the southern provinces of Canada, north‐western and north‐central states of the United States, northern Europe, southern Former Soviet Union and the Manchurian plains of China are most sensitive to changes in temperature. The Great Plains region of the United States and north‐eastern China are most sensitive to changes in precipitation. The regions that are sensitive to precipitation change are also sensitive to changes in CO2, but the magnitude is small compared to the influence of direct climate change. We estimate that climate change, as simulated by global climate models, will expand cropland suitability by an additional 16%, mainly in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. However, the tropics (mainly Africa, northern South America, Mexico and Central America and Oceania) will experience a small decrease in suitability due to climate change. Main conclusions There is a large reserve of cultivable croplands, mainly in tropical South America and Africa. However, much of this land is under valuable forests or in protected areas. Furthermore, the tropical soils could potentially lose fertility very rapidly once the forest cover is removed. Regions that lie at the margins of temperature or precipitation limitation to cultivation are most sensitive to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration. It is anticipated that climate change will result in an increase in cropland suitability in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes (mainly in developed nations), while the tropics will lose suitability (mainly in developing nations). 相似文献
14.
Marginal populations are usually small, fragmented, and vulnerable to extinction, which makes them particularly interesting from a conservation point of view. They are also the starting point of range shifts that result from climate change, through a process involving colonization of newly suitable sites at the cool margin of species distributions. Hence, understanding the processes that drive demography and distribution at high‐latitude populations is essential to forecast the response of species to global changes. We investigated the relative importance of solar irradiance (as a proxy for microclimate), habitat quality, and connectivity on occupancy, abundance, and population stability at the northern range margin of the Oberthür's grizzled skipper butterfly Pyrgus armoricanus. For this purpose, butterfly abundance was surveyed in a habitat network consisting of 50 habitat patches over 12 years. We found that occupancy and abundance (average and variability) were mostly influenced by the density of host plants and the spatial isolation of patches, while solar irradiance and grazing frequency had only an effect on patch occupancy. Knowing that the distribution of host plants extends further north, we hypothesize that the actual variable limiting the northern distribution of P. armoricanus might be its dispersal capacity that prevents it from reaching more northern habitat patches. The persistence of this metapopulation in the face of global changes will thus be fundamentally linked to the maintenance of an efficient network of habitats. 相似文献
15.
Wade K. Stanton-Jones;Graham J. Alexander; 《Austral ecology》2024,49(8):e13577
The sungazer (Smaug giganteus) is a strict grassland specialist lizard endemic to South Africa's highveld grasslands. It is currently listed as Vulnerable (IUCN) and is primarily threatened by anthropogenic activities. Because sungazers are habitat specialists, climate change may be detrimental to the species, considering their life-history traits, and the area of available suitable habitat. We assessed how climate change may impact the sungazers' geographic range by first producing an ecological niche model (ENM) for the species within a buffered region of its extent of occurrence (buffered EOO). The ENM was then projected to 2040, 2060, 2080 and 2100 under two climate change scenarios using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP); SSP245 (moderate-case) and SSP585 (worst-case). A mean ensemble of three global circulation models for each time period and scenario was used to create habitat suitability maps which were refined using a natural grassland variable overlay. Resulting maps were clipped to the sungazers' EOO and interpreted distribution. Within the interpreted distribution, models predicted an area of 10 198 km2 of current suitable habitat. At this scale, future habitat suitability is predicted to remain relatively stable (area: 9910 km2; 3% decline) under SSP245 by 2100. However, a 24% decline (area: 7705 km2) in habitat suitability was predicted under SSP585. Within the buffered EOO, habitat suitability increased in south-western regions, which was more prominent under SSP585. Although this finding suggests that sungazers could track favourable conditions, their life history and low dispersal ability makes climate tracking unlikely. Because sungazers only occur in primary grasslands, regions dominated by agricultural activities, further land use developments are likely to affect the species survival. Thus, careful conservation management is essential, and we recommend the establishment of protected areas with cognizance of our predictions for current and future suitable habitat within the sungazers' interpreted distribution. 相似文献
16.
茶丽纹象甲Myllocerinus aurolineatus Voss是茶树上重要的食叶性害虫之一,近年在中国各大产茶区广泛发生,并在局部茶园暴发成灾.本研究通过搜集整理茶丽纹象甲在中国的分布点数据,利用MaxEnt模型预测其在中国当前及未来气候变化情景下的潜在适生区,并确定影响其潜在分布的主导环境变量.结果表明:模型重复运行10次的平均AUC值为0.923,标准差为0.007,预测效果表现为非常好.当前气候条件下,茶丽纹象甲的潜在适生区均主要集中在中国华东、华中、华南、西南大部分地区,总适生区面积为247.18万km2.未来气候情景下总适生区面积逐步增加,适生区边界沿当前适生区继续向北扩张,最北扩散至吉林省.在2061-2080年SSP5_85情景下总适生区面积达到最大,为255.59万km2,占中国总面积的26.62％.影响茶丽纹象甲潜在适生区分布的主导环境变量是最干月份降水量、年平均降水量、最冷月最低温、昼夜温差与年温差比值.因此研究当前及未来不同气候情景下茶丽纹象甲的潜在适生区变化,可为其监测预警和制定防控方案提供科学依据,有效防止其大范围扩散造成更大危害. 相似文献
17.
18.
Liuyang Yang;Jiangnan Ling;Lilei Lu;Dongsheng Zang;Yunzhen Zhu;Song Zhang;Yongkang Zhou;Pingsi Yi;En Li;Tao Pan;Xiaobing Wu; 《Ecology and evolution》2024,14(6):e11477
Amphibians and reptiles, especially the critically endangered Chinese alligators, are vulnerable to climate change. Historically, the decline in suitable habitats and fragmentation has restricted the distribution of Chinese alligators to a small area in southeast Anhui Province in China. However, the effects of climate change on range-restricted Chinese alligator habitats are largely unknown. We aimed to predict current and future (2050s and 2070s) Chinese alligator distribution and identify priority conservation areas under climate change. We employed species distribution models, barycenter migration analyses, and the Marxian model to assess current and future Chinese alligator distribution and identify priority conservation areas under climate change. The results showed that the lowest temperature and rainfall seasonality in the coldest month were the two most important factors affecting the distribution of Chinese alligators. Future predictions indicate a reduction (3.39%–98.41%) in suitable habitats and a westward shift in their distribution. Further, the study emphasizes that suitable habitats for Chinese alligators are threatened by climate change. Despite the impact of the Anhui Chinese Alligator National Nature Reserve, protection gaps persist, with 78.27% of the area lacking priority protected area. Our study provides crucial data for Chinese alligator adaptation to climate change and underscores the need for improved conservation strategies. Future research should refine conservation efforts, consider individual plasticity, and address identified limitations to enhance the resilience of Chinese alligator populations in the face of ongoing climate change. 相似文献
19.
三江源是我国重要的水源涵养功能区,也是我国乃至东南亚地区的生态屏障,具有重要的生态战略地位。揭示三江源水源涵养能力的空间分布、变化趋势及影响因素,对于推进生态保护与修复工程,提高区域水资源供给能力和维持生态系统健康稳定具有重要意义。基于InVEST模型,定量分析了三江源区水源涵养能力的时空变化及影响因素。结果表明:草地生态系统为三江源水源涵养功能主体,年平均水源涵养量为120.04亿m3。1990-2020年三江源水源涵养量呈显著上升趋势,变化速率为1.80亿m3/a(P<0.05),年平均水源涵养量为163.84亿m3。生态治理前(1990-2005年)水源涵养量增长速率高于生态治理后(2005-2020年)。三江源区水源涵养能力空间分布上表现出东南高、西北低的特点,显著增长面积为22.07万km2,占全区总面积的60.79%。生态治理前,降水量增加、实际蒸散量增加和实际蒸散比降低等气候变化为驱动水源涵养能力增长的主要因素;生态治理后,林、草地面积增加等土地利用/覆被变化为驱动水源涵养能力增长的主要因素。 相似文献
20.
Land‐based solutions are indispensable features of most climate mitigation scenarios. Here we conduct a novel cross‐sectoral assessment of regional carbon mitigation potential by running an ecosystem model with an explicit representation of forest structure and climate impacts for Bavaria, Germany, as a case study. We drive the model with four high‐resolution climate projections (EURO‐CORDEX) for the representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 and present‐day land‐cover from three satellite‐derived datasets (CORINE, ESA‐CCI, MODIS) and identify total mitigation potential by not only accounting for carbon storage but also material and energy substitution effects. The model represents the current state in Bavaria adequately, with a simulated forest biomass 12.9 ± 0.4% lower than data from national forest inventories. Future land‐use changes according to two ambitious land‐use harmonization scenarios (SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP4xRCP3.4) achieve a mitigation of 206 and 247 Mt C (2015–2100 period) via reforestation and the cultivation and burning of dedicated bioenergy crops, partly combined with carbon capture and storage. Sensitivity simulations suggest that converting croplands or pastures to bioenergy plantations could deliver a carbon mitigation of 40.9 and 37.7 kg C/m2, respectively, by the year 2100 if used to replace carbon‐intensive energy systems and combined with CCS. However, under less optimistic assumptions (including no CCS), only 15.3 and 12.2 kg C/m2 are mitigated and reforestation might be the better option (20.0 and 16.8 kg C/m2). Mitigation potential in existing forests is limited (converting coniferous into mixed forests, nitrogen fertilization) or even negative (suspending wood harvest) due to decreased carbon storage in product pools and associated substitution effects. Our simulations provide guidelines to policy makers, farmers, foresters, and private forest owners for sustainable and climate‐benefitting ecosystem management in temperate regions. They also emphasize the importance of the CCS technology which is regarded critically by many people, making its implementation in the short or medium term currently doubtable. 相似文献