The geographical range of British birds expands during 15 years of warming

Capsule Abundance monitoring data suggest that the short-term response of breeding birds to recent warming in Great Britain has been range expansion, caused by poleward shifts of leading range margins and no significant shifts of trailing range margins.

Aims To quantify latitudinal and elevational shifts of breeding bird populations in Great Britain and test for differential shifts in range margins during a period of warming (1994–2009).

Methods We modelled the population density of 80 species as a smooth function of latitude, longitude, elevation and year. Reference points on the distribution curve were used to describe latitudinal and elevational shifts.

Results Across species, poleward shifts in the leading range margin were greater than in the range-centre. The trailing range margin was largely static, providing evidence for significant range expansion. The magnitude of latitudinal range shift lagged behind the equivalent shift in temperature, suggesting that species may be accumulating a climatic debt. There was no evidence for consistent elevational shifts.

Conclusion Contrary to the generally expected long-term consequences of climate change of range contraction, we show that the short-term response to recent warming has been range expansion. This suggests the mechanisms of short-term and long-term consequences of climate change may differ.     

The influence of survey frequency on population estimates of moorland breeding birds

Capsule A minimum of four constant‐effort‐search survey visits are required to generate reliable population estimates of breeding birds on moorland that are not subject to biases associated with varying levels of detectability through the season.

Aims To investigate the influence of the number and the combination of survey visits on the population estimates of breeding birds on moorland.

Methods Four constant‐effort‐search surveys (80–100 minutes per km² per visit) of moorland in southwest Scotland were undertaken in each of six years, 2003–2008. Using standard protocols, the numbers of apparent territories that would have been identified for each possible combination of survey visits were determined.glms were used to assess the influence of the frequency of survey visits, and different combination scenarios on the derived population estimates for Red Grouse, European Golden Plover, Common Snipe, Eurasian Curlew, Sky Lark, Winter Wren and Stonechat. Independent assessments of population density were made by transect sampling for Red Grouse and Sky Lark.

Results Robust population estimates were possible from three survey visits for European Golden Plover, Eurasian Curlew and Stonechat. However, there were differences between species in the seasonal variation of their detectability. Four survey visits would underestimate the populations of Red Grouse (probably by 67–91%), Sky Lark (probably by 31–61%) and Winter Wren (by an undetermined proportion). Common Snipe were also likely to be underestimated after four survey visits, but the value of the derived estimate as an index of population density deserves further investigation.

Conclusions If there is a need to carry out a multi‐species survey on moorland, we suggest that a minimum of four survey visits is required to ensure the derivation of reliable population estimates for a suite of the most readily detectable species. Population estimates derived from three or fewer survey visits risk biases through uneven sampling in periods of differing detectability. With evidence for changes in the breeding phenology of birds associated with changing climate or weather patterns, it arguably becomes more important to ensure that surveys sample an adequately broad period of the breeding season.     

Poleward shifts in breeding bird distributions in New York State

Like other regions of the northern hemisphere, the northeastern United States has experienced a general increase in regional temperatures over the past 20 years. Quantifying the ecological implications of these changing temperatures has been severely constrained by a lack of multispecies distributional data by which to compare long-term changes. We used the New York State Breeding Bird Atlas, a statewide survey of 5332 25 km² blocks surveyed in 1980–1985 and 2000–2005, to test several predictions that the birds of New York State are responding to climate change. Our objective was to use an information-theoretic approach to analyze changes in three geographic range characteristics, the center of occurrence, range boundaries, and states of occurrence to address several predictions that the birds of New York State are moving polewards and up in elevation. As expected, we found all bird species ( n =129) included in this analysis showed an average northward range shift in their mean latitude of 3.58 km [ Prob ( H _a|data)=0.87)]. Past studies have found that northern range boundaries are more likely to be influenced by climatic factors than southern range boundaries. Consequently, we predicted that northward shifts would be more evident in northern as opposed to southern range boundaries. We found, however, that the southern range boundaries of northerly birds moved northward by 11.4 km [ n =43, Prob ( H _a|data)=0.92], but this pattern was less evident in northern range boundaries of southerly birds. In addition, we found that bird species demonstrated a general shift downhill in their mean elevation, but demonstrated little change in their elevational boundaries. The repeated pattern of a predicted northward shift in bird ranges in various geographic regions of the world provides compelling evidence that climate change is driving range shifts.     

Directionality of recent bird distribution shifts and climate change in Great Britain

There is good evidence that species' distributions are shifting poleward in response to climate change and wide interest in the magnitude of such responses for scientific and conservation purposes. It has been suggested from the directions of climatic changes that species' distribution shifts may not be simply poleward, but this has been rarely tested with observed data. Here, we apply a novel approach to measuring range shifts on axes ranging through 360°, to recent data on the distributions of 122 species of British breeding birds during 1988–1991 and 2008–2011. Although previously documented poleward range shifts have continued, with an average 13.5 km shift northward, our analysis indicates this is an underestimate because it ignores common and larger shifts that occurred along axes oriented to the north‐west and north‐east. Trailing edges contracted from a broad range of southerly directions. Importantly, these results are derived from systematically collected data so confounding observer‐effort biases can be discounted. Analyses of climate for the same period show that whilst temperature trends should drive species along a north–north‐westerly trajectory, directional responses to precipitation will depend on both the time of year that is important for determining a species' distribution, and the location of the range margin. Directions of species' range centroid shift were not correlated with spatial trends in any single climate variable. We conclude that range shifts of British birds are multidirectional, individualistic and probably determined by species‐specific interactions of multiple climate factors. Climate change is predicted to lead to changes in community composition through variation in the rates that species' ranges shift; our results suggest communities could change further owing to constituent species shifting along different trajectories. We recommend more studies consider directionality in climate and range dynamics to produce more appropriate measures of observed and expected responses to climate change.     

Temporal variation in detection of marsh birds during broadcast of conspecific calls

ABSTRACT.   The decline in populations of several species of marsh birds in North America has prompted development of a monitoring protocol that involves the broadcast of conspecific calls to enhance detection of these secretive species. However, with a standardized protocol, temporal (seasonal) and geographic variation in responses to the broadcast of calls could lead to inadequate monitoring of migratory species with large ranges. Our objective was to examine temporal variation in the response of marsh birds to playback of conspecific calls in west-central and northern New York to determine if use of the current protocol would permit effective monitoring of their populations. From 11 April to 8 July 2005, we conducted 572 surveys at 143 survey points on 16 marshes and detected 663 individuals of our target species. Our results revealed more detections of American Bitterns ( Botaurus lentiginosus ) and Pied-billed Grebes ( Podilymbus podiceps ) early in our survey period, and more detections of Virginia Rails ( Rallus limicola ) and Least Bitterns ( Ixobrychus exil is) later in our survey period. Only 22% of Least Bitterns were detected before 28 May, whereas 76% of American Bitterns and 70% of Pied-billed Grebes were detected before 28 May. With the current recommended monitoring protocol, surveys are to be completed during a 44-day period that includes three 10-day sampling periods separated by 1 week. However, our results indicate that this protocol would lead to inadequate and inaccurate monitoring of marsh birds in New York. Given that the timing of peak detection of different species of marsh birds varies geographically, we recommend flexibility in the timing and duration of surveys so that surveys can be synchronized with location-specific peak-detection periods.     

Bias in aerial estimates of the number of nests in White Ibis and Great Egret colonies

ABSTRACT Estimating detection error, as well as the magnitude of other potential survey biases, is essential when sampling efforts play a role in the estimation of population size and management of wildlife populations. We quantified visual biases in aerial surveys of nesting wading birds (Ciconiiformes) in colonies in the Florida Everglades using a negative binomial count regression model to compare numbers of nests in quadrats counted on the ground with numbers estimated from aerial photographs of the same quadrats. The model also allowed the determination of degree of difference between monitoring results based upon such factors as nest density, vegetative cover, and nest turnover rates. Aerial surveys of White Ibis (Eudocimus albus) colonies underestimated the true number of nests found during ground counts by 11.1%, and underestimates were significantly greater (P= 0.047) in a colony with high nest turnover. Error rates did not differ for quadrats that varied in the density of White Ibis nests did not differ, and visual bias did not increase with vegetative complexity (P= 0.73). Estimates of nest density in colonies of Great Egrets (Ardea alba) based on aerial surveys were higher than ground counts for 38% of the quadrats sampled, and mean visual bias was 23.1%. Species misidentification likely contributed to visibility bias for Great Egrets in our study, with some Snowy Egrets almost certainly mistaken for Great Egrets in aerial photos. Biases of the magnitude we observed fro Great Egrets and White Ibises can mask true population trends in long‐term monitoring and, therefore, we recommend that detection probability be explicitly evaluated when conducting aerial surveys of nesting birds.     

Status of the Nightingale Luscinia megarhynchos in Britain at the end of the 20th Century with particular reference to climate change

Capsule The population level may be unchanged but the range has contracted.

Aims To establish the current status of the Nightingale in Britain and explore causes for any changes.

Methods Over 3000 sites where Nightingales were known to have occurred since 1980 were surveyed by volunteers between mid-April and early June 1999. A selection of 135 random tetrads were also surveyed to gauge the efficiency of the volunteer survey in locating Nightingales.

Results The survey located 4565 singing male Nightingales while the random tetrad surveys suggest that c. 32% of birds occur away from known sites, increasing the estimate for the British Nightingale population to 6700 males (95% confidence limits 5600–9350) in 1999. A higher proportion of Nightingales was found in scrub (46.7%) than in 1976 (28.4%), suggesting a recent shift in habitat use.

Conclusion There is little evidence of a change in the size of the British Nightingale population, probably because earlier surveys underestimated numbers. The range has contracted markedly over the last few decades and numbers outside the core areas in southeast England are now low. Changes in habitat quality and increasing deer populations have caused decreases on a local scale. Changes in climate on the breeding grounds and general changes in climate or habitat suitability on the African winter quarters are likely to be important in influencing the distribution within England. Models of the effects of future climate change on Nightingale distribution in Britain predict that numbers and range should increase over the next few decades.     

An index of reproductive activity provides an accurate estimate of the reproductive success of Palm Warblers

ABSTRACT.   Various indices of reproductive activity (IRA) have been used to estimate the reproductive success of songbirds. However, the performance of IRAs varies among systems examined, and this approach still requires more effort than standard surveys. We tested the accuracy of an IRA in a survey of birds nesting in bogs in eastern New Brunswick, Canada. We compared an IRA obtained through point counts with playbacks ("extensive" IRA) to another IRA obtained through intensive searches for evidence of breeding ("intensive" IRA) by Palm Warblers ( Dendroica palmarum ). Both the extensive IRA and associated abundance index were correlated with the intensive IRA, the former correlation being stronger. However, the extensive IRA tended to underestimate the status of breeding birds and overestimate the status of nonreproducing individuals that behaved more conspicuously. Nonetheless, the extensive IRA obtained using song playbacks represents a time-efficient alternative to intensive nest monitoring when estimating habitat quality at the scale of small (0.78 ha) study plots.     

Power to detect trends in abundance of secretive marsh birds: Effects of species traits and sampling effort

Standardized protocols for surveying secretive marsh birds have been implemented across North America, but the efficacy of surveys to detect population trends has not been evaluated. We used survey data collected from populations of marsh birds across North America and simulations to explore how characteristics of bird populations (proportion of survey stations occupied, abundance at occupied stations, and detection probability) and aspects of sampling effort (numbers of survey routes, stations/route, and surveys/station/year) affect statistical power to detect trends in abundance of marsh bird populations. In general, the proportion of survey stations along a route occupied by a species had a greater relative effect on power to detect trends than did the number of birds detected per survey at occupied stations. Uncertainty introduced by imperfect detection during surveys reduced power to detect trends considerably, but across the range of detection probabilities for most species of marsh birds, variation in detection probability had only a minor influence on power. For species that occupy a relatively high proportion of survey stations (0.20), have relatively high abundances at occupied stations (2.0 birds/station), and have high detection probability (0.50), ≥40 routes with 10 survey stations per route surveyed 3 times per year would provide an 80% chance of detecting a 3% annual decrease in abundance after 20 years of surveys. Under the same assumptions but for species that are less common, ≥100 routes would be needed to achieve the same power. Our results can help inform the design of programs to monitor trends in abundance of marsh bird populations, especially with regards to the amount of sampling effort necessary to meet programmatic goals. © 2013 The Wildlife Society     

The positive correlation between avian species richness and human population density in Britain is not attributable to sampling bias

Aim  To assess whether spatial variation in sampling effort drives positive correlations between human population density and species richness.
Location  British 10 × 10 km squares.
Methods  We calculated three measures of species richness from atlas data of breeding birds in Britain: total species richness, species richness standardised for sampling effort, and the number of species only recorded in supplementary casual records in a manner not standardised for survey effort. We then assessed the form of the relationship between these richness estimates and human population density, both with and without taking spatial autocorrelation into account.
Results  Both total and standardised species richness exhibit similar species richness–human population density relationships; species richness generally increases with human population density, but decreases at the very highest densities. Supplementary species richness is very weakly correlated with human population density.
Main conclusions  In this example, sampling effort only slightly influences the form of species richness–human population density relationships. The positive correlation between species richness and human population density and any resultant conservation conflicts are thus not artefactual patterns generated by confounding human density and sampling effort.     

Hungry chicks and mortal parents: A state-variable approach to the breeding seasons of birds

We here report the results of a dynamic programming model of the breeding season of a bird, patterned after the Black-capped Chickadee (Parus atricapillus) nesting near Ithaca, New York. Optimal breeding seasons fall largely before the peak in food distribution, and this shift appears to be because peak metabolic demands of the brood are coordinated with the peak in food density and because the risk of adult mortality selects for earlier breeding than would otherwise be favored. This latter effect, first proposed by Fisher, may explain the nearly universal observation that early breeding appears to be favored in birds from a wide range of habitats and phylogenies.     

Challenges and opportunities for estimating abundance of a low-density moose population

Monitoring large herbivores across their core range has been readily accomplished using aerial surveys and traditional distance sampling. But for peripheral populations, where individuals may occur in patchy, low-density populations, precise estimation of population size and trend remains logistically and statistically challenging. For moose (Alces alces) along their southern range margin in northern New York, USA, we sought robust estimates of moose distribution, abundance, and population trend (2016–2019) using a combination of aerial surveys (line transect distance-sampling), repeated surveys in areas where moose were known to occur to boost the number of detections, and density surface modeling (DSM) with spatial covariates. We achieved a precise estimate of density (95% CI = 0.00–0.29 moose/km²) for this small population (656 moose, 95% CI = 501–859), which was patchily distributed across a large and heavily forested region (the 24,280-km² Adirondack Park). Local moose abundance was positively related to active timber management, elevation, and snow cover, and negatively related to large bodies of water. As expected, moose abundance in this peripheral population was low relative to its core range in other northern forest states. Yet, in areas where abundance was greatest, moose densities in New York approached those where epizootics of winter tick (Dermacentor albipictus) have been reported, underscoring the need for effective and efficient monitoring. By incorporating autocorrelation in observations and landscape covariates, DSM provided spatially explicit estimates of moose density with greater precision and no additional field effort over traditional distance sampling. Combined with repeated surveys of areas with known moose occurrence to achieve viable sample sizes, DSM is a useful tool for effectively monitoring low density and patchy populations.     

Joint effects of species traits and environmental preferences on range edge shifts of British birds

Aim

Despite the strong evidence of species range shifts as a response to environmental change, attempts to identify species traits that modulate those shifts have been equivocal. We investigate the role of species traits and environmental preferences on birds' range shifts in Great Britain, an island where dispersal is limited by the English Channel and the North Sea.

Location

Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales).

Taxa

Birds (Aves).

Time Period

1968–2011.

Methods

Using 404,949 occurrence records from two time periods, we investigated the potential drivers of leading and rear range edge shifts of breeding birds using phylogenetic linear mixed models. We hypothesized that shifts are influenced by species' trophic and morphological traits, dispersal abilities and environmental preferences, but also by the geographical boundaries of Great Britain.

Results

Geographical boundaries—the distance from the northern or southern boundaries of Britain—accounted for most of the variability in range edge shifts. Species traits and environmental preferences emerged as relevant drivers of range shifts only for northern and Passeriform species. Northern habitat specialist, those with more predators and those sensitive to precipitation were more likely to shift their rear edge poleward. For Passeriformes, habitat generalists, species with smaller dispersal capabilities, under higher predatory pressure or associated with forest and grassland were more likely to shift their rear edge poleward.

Main Conclusions

While geographical boundaries impose constraints on range shifts in British birds, the subtle effects of species traits and environmental preferences emerge as relevant predictors for Northern and passeriform species' rear edge shifts. This highlights the importance of accounting for geographical boundaries when predicting species responses to global change. Differential range shifts of species across different trophic levels could result in the reorganization of biotic interactions, with consequences for ecosystem structure and stability.     

The Breeding Ranges of Central European and Arctic Bird Species Move Poleward

Background

Climatic warming predicts that species move their entire distribution poleward. Poleward movement of the ‘cold’ side of the distribution of species is empirically supported, but evidence of poleward movement at the ‘warm’ distributional side is relatively scarce.

Methodology/Principal Finding

Finland has, as the first country in the world, completed three national atlas surveys of breeding birds, which we here use to calculate the sizes and weighted mean latitudes of the national range of 114 southern and 34 northern bird species during three periods (1974–1979; 1986–1989; 2006–2010), each denoting species presence in approximately 3 800 10×10 km2 squares. We find strong evidence that southern species (breeding predominantly in central Europe) showed a latitudinal shift of 1.1–1.3 km/year poleward during all three pairwise comparisons between these atlases (covering 11, 20.5 and 31.5 years respectively). We find evidence of a latitudinal shift of 0.7–0.8 km/year poleward of northern boreal and Arctic species, but this shift was not found in all study periods and may have been influenced by increased effort put into the more recent surveys. Species showed no significant correlation in changes in range size and weighted mean latitude between the first (11 year) and second (20.5 year) period covered by consecutive atlases, suggesting weak phylogenetic signal and little scope of species characteristics in explaining latitudinal avian range changes.

Conclusions

Extinction-driven avian range changes (at the ‘warm’ side) of a species'' distribution occur at approximately half the rate of colonisation-driven range changes (at the ‘cold’ side), and its quantification therefore requires long-term monitoring data, possibly explaining why evidence for such changes is currently rare. A clear latitudinal shift in an assemblage of species may still harbour considerable temporal inconsistency in latitudinal movement on the species level. Understanding this inconsistency is important for predictive modelling of species composition in a changing world.     

Dealing with non-equilibrium bias and survey effort in presence-only invasive Species Distribution Models (iSDM); predicting the range of muntjac deer in Britain and Ireland

Invasive species managers utilise species records to inform management. These data can also be used in Species Distribution Models (SDM) to predict future spread or potential invasion of new areas. However, issues with non-equilibrium (also called disequilibrium) can cause difficulties in modelling invasive species that have not fully colonised their potential distribution and, in addition, sampling bias can result from a lack of information on survey effort, a particular issue for presence only modelling techniques. Geographical confounds are unavoidable when building iSDMs but there are methods that allow prediction to be optimised. We used maximum entropy (Maxent) to model suitable habitat for invasive Reeve's muntjac deer (Muntiacus reevesi) throughout Great Britain and Ireland comparing several methods that aimed to address invasive Species Distribution Modelling (iSDM) bias including spatial filtering, weighted background points and targeted background points built at varying spatial extents. Model evaluation metrics suggested that the model, which explicitly failed to account for non-equilibrium at the full extent of Great Britain and Ireland using random background points, predicted the species' current invasive range best. This highlighted that negative environmental relationships are likely to represent uncolonised areas rather than habitat selection and thus, low predicted suitability of uncolonised areas was misleading. Of the models that dealt with non-equilibrium conceptually best, by restricting the training extent to their current invasive range or core range, and utilised targeted background points accounting for survey effort (cells with other deer species recorded as present yet with no records for muntjac) as the best model evaluation metric, yielded relatively poor predictive performance. This implied limited habitat selectivity or avoidance within the colonised range which, when spatially extrapolated, suggested virtually all regions in Great Britain and Ireland may be vulnerable to future muntjac invasion.     

Status of breeding Dotterel Charadrius morinellus in Britain in 1999

Capsule A minimum of 220 male Dotterel nested in Britain in 1999, which after correction for missed birds led to an estimated 630 breeding males.

Aims To provide a reliable population estimate of Dotterel against which past and future estimates could be compared.

Methods Over half of the potential breeding habitat in Britain, selected randomly and to cover protected sites and former breeding sites for Dotterel, was surveyed through a single visit when Dotterel had young chicks.

Results After correcting for missed birds, 750 males were estimated to be breeding in Britain in 1999. An alternative method led to an estimated 510 males. Both methods had their drawbacks – 630 males probably represented the best estimate. Almost 93% of males bred in three regions: central, east and north Highlands. Around a third of surveyed sites were occupied by breeding birds. The national population estimate was significantly higher in 1987/88 but numbers were probably greatest in 1989 and declined in the 1990s. In 1999 Dotterel distribution had contracted to those sites with the highest densities in the late 1980s.

Conclusion It is unlikely that changes in numbers between surveys were due to changes in the British breeding grounds. They may be due to adverse influences away from the breeding grounds or, because Dotterels can move across large distances between breeding attempts, a redistribution of birds away from Scotland to breeding sites elsewhere in the Palearctic.     

Detecting climate change induced range shifts: Where and how should we be looking?

Abstract: Global climate warming is expected to cause systematic shifts in the distribution of species and consequently increase extinction risk. Conservation managers must be able to detect, measure and accurately predict range shifts in order to mitigate impacts on biodiversity. However, important responses to climate change may go unnoticed or be dismissed if we fail to collect sufficient baseline data and apply the most sensitive analytical tests. Here we use randomizations of a contemporary data set on rainforest birds of north‐eastern Australia to quantify the sensitivity of three measures for assessing range shifts along altitudinal gradients. We find that smaller range shifts are detectable by analysing change in the mean altitude of presence records rather than upper or lower range boundaries. For a moderate survey effort of 96 surveys, measurements of change in the mean altitude of 34 species have the capacity to provide strong inference for a mean altitudinal range shift as small as 40 m across the species assemblage. We also show that range shifts measured at range boundaries can be potentially misleading when differences in sampling effort between contemporary and historical data sets are not taken into account.     

Revised estimate of numbers of wintering Red-throated Divers Gavia stellata in Great Britain

Capsule An estimated 17 000 Red-throated Divers winter around Great Britain.

Aim To produce an up-to-date assessment of the numbers of Red-throated Divers wintering around Great Britain.

Methods A revised Great Britain (GB) wintering population estimate for Red-throated Divers was compiled using data primarily from systematic line transect surveys by aircraft over marine nearshore areas conducted during 2001–06, supplemented with county bird records and Wetland Bird Survey (WeBS) counts, both from 1995 to 2005. Population estimates for each survey area around GB were calculated as the mean of either annual means (aerial surveys) or annual maxima (WeBS, county bird records) of all data collected within January and February of each year. These were summed to give a revised GB wintering population estimate.

Results A total of 17116 (13198–21034, 95% confidence interval) Red-throated Divers were estimated to winter around GB. Distribution was uneven. By far the greatest numbers were found off southeast and east Britain (59.3% of the total was between Flamborough Head, Yorkshire, and Dungeness, Kent), with large concentrations off the English south coast (10.9%), north Wales and Liverpool Bay (9.8%), and eastern Scotland (6.1%).

Conclusion This is a minimum plausible population estimate and the true population size may be larger. The new 1% of population threshold for statutory conservation work is 170 birds.     

Estimating nests not present at the time of breeding surveys: an important consideration in assessing nesting populations

ABSTRACT.   Counts of nest starts are often used as indicators of the size of avian nesting populations, or of avian productivity. However, the accuracy of single or repeated counts of unmarked nests over time for estimating seasonal numbers of nests may be strongly affected by nest events that fall in between survey dates, or that occurred prior to or after the survey period. Accuracy may also be affected by uncertainty in the interpretation of counts due to overlap between starting and ending dates of asynchronous nests during the intervisit interval. To measure the combined magnitude of these effects on survey accuracy, we overlaid a monthly "survey" regime on known initiation and ending dates of 2055 nests of ciconiiform birds. Assuming all nests present on the date of simulated survey were counted, monthly surveys underestimated the true number of nest starts by 24–64%, depending on species and year. Using a simple model, we also demonstrate that accuracy does not increase much as survey frequency increases, and that significant estimation error can occur over a wide range of nest success values and degrees of asynchrony. We suggest that (1) these biases can be significant for surveys of many kinds of nesting birds including some territorial passerines, (2) this bias cannot be addressed by increasing survey frequency, and (3) the degree of renesting may be of critical interest for inferring breeding population size from nest count data. We suggest three possible approaches for modeling this error.     

An approach to the assessment of change in the numbers of Canada Geese Branta canadensis and Greylag Geese Anser anser in southern Britain

Capsule Population change in geese was assessed using an approach that requires a relatively small sampling effort.

Aims During the 1999 breeding season a survey was carried out to determine if the numbers of introduced Canada and re-established Greylag Geese in southern Britain had changed since 1988–91 and whether any change had occurred in areas with previously high or low Canada Goose densities.

Methods A randomized stratified sample of 246 tetrads from the 24 156 tetrads covered between 1988–91 in this area, as part of the New Atlas of Breeding Birds, were resurveyed. Eight habitat categories were used in the stratification and were based on 1-km-square summary data obtained from the CEH Land Cover Map of Great Britain (water cover and urbanization) and LANDCLASS stratification (upland/lowland). The five habitat categories with the highest densities of Canada Geese and the greatest variance in numbers were sampled.

Results Between 1989 and 1999, the number of Canada Geese on land with over 5% water cover and on lowland with some water cover increased by on average 156%, an average rate of increase of 9.9% per annum. Southern Britain probably now holds a minimum of 82 000 Canada Geese. Between 1989 and 1999, the number of Greylag Geese on land with over 5% water cover and on lowland with some water cover increased by on average 214%, an average rate of increase of 12% per annum. Southern Britain probably now holds a minimum of 30 000 Greylag Geese.

Conclusion Maximum densities of Canada Geese may have been reached in high-density habitats but their numbers are still increasing very rapidly. Greylag Geese are increasing even more rapidly.