Intensive agriculture reduces soil biodiversity across Europe

Soil biodiversity plays a key role in regulating the processes that underpin the delivery of ecosystem goods and services in terrestrial ecosystems. Agricultural intensification is known to change the diversity of individual groups of soil biota, but less is known about how intensification affects biodiversity of the soil food web as a whole, and whether or not these effects may be generalized across regions. We examined biodiversity in soil food webs from grasslands, extensive, and intensive rotations in four agricultural regions across Europe: in Sweden, the UK, the Czech Republic and Greece. Effects of land‐use intensity were quantified based on structure and diversity among functional groups in the soil food web, as well as on community‐weighted mean body mass of soil fauna. We also elucidate land‐use intensity effects on diversity of taxonomic units within taxonomic groups of soil fauna. We found that between regions soil food web diversity measures were variable, but that increasing land‐use intensity caused highly consistent responses. In particular, land‐use intensification reduced the complexity in the soil food webs, as well as the community‐weighted mean body mass of soil fauna. In all regions across Europe, species richness of earthworms, Collembolans, and oribatid mites was negatively affected by increased land‐use intensity. The taxonomic distinctness, which is a measure of taxonomic relatedness of species in a community that is independent of species richness, was also reduced by land‐use intensification. We conclude that intensive agriculture reduces soil biodiversity, making soil food webs less diverse and composed of smaller bodied organisms. Land‐use intensification results in fewer functional groups of soil biota with fewer and taxonomically more closely related species. We discuss how these changes in soil biodiversity due to land‐use intensification may threaten the functioning of soil in agricultural production systems.     

城市化对土壤生态环境的影响研究进展

城市土壤是城市生态系统中最重要的组成部分之一,发挥着重要的生态系统服务功能。在全球快速城市化的背景下,城市土壤受到人类活动的强烈干扰,土壤物理、化学性质发生改变,土壤退化与污染日益加重。城市土壤退化导致土壤动物生态特征与行为模式发生变化,城市景观格局与土地利用类型的变化强烈影响了土壤动物的栖息地,为土壤动物的生存与生物多样性带来潜在威胁;另一方面,城市化过程改变了土壤微生物群落组成与功能特征。城市化直接影响了城市土壤维持植物生长、土壤自然消减能力以及碳储存功能等重要的生态系统服务功能。针对城市化过程对土壤生态环境产生的一系列影响,需要采用科学的管理方式,改善土壤理化性质,提高土壤环境质量,保护和恢复土壤生物多样性,从而增强城市土壤的生态系统服务功能。     

Selecting cost effective and policy-relevant biological indicators for European monitoring of soil biodiversity and ecosystem function

Soils provide many ecosystem services that are ultimately dependent on the local diversity and belowground abundance of organisms. Soil biodiversity is affected negatively by many threats and there is a perceived policy requirement for the effective biological monitoring of soils at the European level. The aim of this study was to evaluate and recommend policy relevant, cost-effective soil biological indicators for biodiversity and ecosystem function across Europe. A total of 18 potential indicators were selected using a logical-sieve based approach. This paper considers the use of indicators from the ‘top down’ (i.e. concerned with the process of indicator selection), rather than from the ‘bottom up’ detail of how individual indicators perform at specific sites and with specific treatments. The indicators assessed a range of microbial, faunal and functional attributes, newer nucleic acids based techniques, morphological approaches and process based measurements. They were tested at 6 European experimental sites already in operation and chosen according to land-use, climatic zone and differences in land management intensity. These were 4 arable sites, one each in Atlantic, Continental, Mediterranean and Pannonian climate zones, and 2 grassland sites, one each in Atlantic and Continental zones. At each site we sampled three replicated plots of contrasting management intensity and, while the treatments varied from site to site, their disturbance effects were quantified in terms of land use intensity. The field sampling and laboratory analysis were standardised through a combination of ISO protocols, or standard operating procedures if the former were not available. Sites were sampled twice, in autumn 2012 and spring or autumn 2013, with relative costs of the different indicators being determined each time. A breakdown of the cost effectiveness of the indicators showed the expected trade-off between effort required in the field and effort required in the laboratory. All the indicators were able to differentiate between the sites but, as no single indicator was sensitive to all the differences in land use intensity, we suggest that an indicator programme should be based upon a suite of different indicators. For monitoring under the European climatic zones and land uses of this study, indicators for ecosystem functions related to the services of water regulation, C-sequestration and nutrient provision would include a minimum suite of: earthworms; functional genes; and bait lamina. For effective monitoring of biodiversity all taxonomic groups would need to be addressed.     

Operationalizing ecosystem services for the mitigation of soil threats: A proposed framework

Despite numerous research efforts over the last decades, integrating the concept of ecosystem services into land management decision-making continues to pose considerable challenges. Researchers have developed many different frameworks to operationalize the concept, but these are often specific to a certain issue and each has their own definitions and understandings of particular terms. Based on a comprehensive review of the current scientific debate, the EU FP7 project RECARE proposes an adapted framework for soil-related ecosystem services that is suited for practical application in the prevention and remediation of soil degradation across Europe. We have adapted existing frameworks by integrating components from soil science while attempting to introduce a consistent terminology that is understandable to a variety of stakeholders. RECARE aims to assess how soil threats and prevention and remediation measures affect ecosystem services. Changes in the natural capital's properties influence soil processes, which support the provision of ecosystem services. The benefits produced by these ecosystem services are explicitly or implicitly valued by individuals and society. This can influence decision- and policymaking at different scales, potentially leading to a societal response, such as improved land management. The proposed ecosystem services framework will be applied by the RECARE project in a transdisciplinary process. It will assist in singling out the most beneficial land management measures and in identifying trade-offs and win–win situations resulting from and impacted by European policies. The framework thus reflects the specific contributions soils make to ecosystem services and helps reveal changes in ecosystem services caused by soil management and policies impacting on soil. At the same time, the framework is simple and robust enough for practical application in assessing soil threats and their management with stakeholders at various levels.     

Land use intensification alters ecosystem multifunctionality via loss of biodiversity and changes to functional composition

Global change, especially land‐use intensification, affects human well‐being by impacting the delivery of multiple ecosystem services (multifunctionality). However, whether biodiversity loss is a major component of global change effects on multifunctionality in real‐world ecosystems, as in experimental ones, remains unclear. Therefore, we assessed biodiversity, functional composition and 14 ecosystem services on 150 agricultural grasslands differing in land‐use intensity. We also introduce five multifunctionality measures in which ecosystem services were weighted according to realistic land‐use objectives. We found that indirect land‐use effects, i.e. those mediated by biodiversity loss and by changes to functional composition, were as strong as direct effects on average. Their strength varied with land‐use objectives and regional context. Biodiversity loss explained indirect effects in a region of intermediate productivity and was most damaging when land‐use objectives favoured supporting and cultural services. In contrast, functional composition shifts, towards fast‐growing plant species, strongly increased provisioning services in more inherently unproductive grasslands.     

Threats and opportunities for freshwater conservation under future land use change scenarios in the United States

Freshwater ecosystems provide vital resources for humans and support high levels of biodiversity, yet are severely threatened throughout the world. The expansion of human land uses, such as urban and crop cover, typically degrades water quality and reduces freshwater biodiversity, thereby jeopardizing both biodiversity and ecosystem services. Identifying and mitigating future threats to freshwater ecosystems requires forecasting where land use changes are most likely. Our goal was to evaluate the potential consequences of future land use on freshwater ecosystems in the coterminous United States by comparing alternative scenarios of land use change (2001–2051) with current patterns of freshwater biodiversity and water quality risk. Using an econometric model, each of our land use scenarios projected greater changes in watersheds of the eastern half of the country, where freshwater ecosystems already experience higher stress from human activities. Future urban expansion emerged as a major threat in regions with high freshwater biodiversity (e.g., the Southeast) or severe water quality problems (e.g., the Midwest). Our scenarios reflecting environmentally oriented policies had some positive effects. Subsidizing afforestation for carbon sequestration reduced crop cover and increased natural vegetation in areas that are currently stressed by low water quality, while discouraging urban sprawl diminished urban expansion in areas of high biodiversity. On the other hand, we found that increases in crop commodity prices could lead to increased agricultural threats in areas of high freshwater biodiversity. Our analyses illustrate the potential for policy changes and market factors to influence future land use trends in certain regions of the country, with important consequences for freshwater ecosystems. Successful conservation of aquatic biodiversity and ecosystem services in the United States into the future will require attending to the potential threats and opportunities arising from policies and market changes affecting land use.     

Pathways to bridge the biophysical realism gap in ecosystem services mapping approaches

The mapping of ecosystem service supply has become quite common in ecosystem service assessment practice for terrestrial ecosystems, but land cover remains the most common indicator for ecosystems ability to deliver ecosystem services. For marine ecosystems, practice is even less advanced, with a clear deficit in spatially-explicit assessments of ecosystem service supply. This situation, which generates considerable uncertainty in the assessment of ecosystems’ ability to support current and future human well-being, contrasts with increasing understanding of the role of terrestrial and marine biodiversity for ecosystem functioning and thereby for ecosystem services. This paper provides a synthesis of available approaches, models and tools, and data sources, that are able to better link ecosystem service mapping to current understanding of the role of ecosystem service providing organisms and land/seascape structure in ecosystem functioning. Based on a review of literature, models and associated geo-referenced metrics are classified according to the way in which land or marine use, ecological processes and especially biodiversity effects are represented. We distinguish five types of models: proxy-based, phenomenological, niche-based, trait-based and full-process. Examples from each model type are presented and data requirements considered. Our synthesis demonstrates that the current understanding of the role of biota in ecosystem services can effectively be incorporated into mapping approaches and opens avenues for further model development using hybrid approaches tailored to available resources. We end by discussing ways to resolve sources of uncertainty associated with model representation of biotic processes and with data availability.     

Modelling the effects of loss of soil biodiversity on ecosystem function

There are concerns about whether accelerating worldwide loss of biodiversity will adversely affect ecosystem functioning and services such as forage production. Theoretically, the loss of some species or functional groups might be compensated for by changes in abundance of other species or functional groups such that ecosystem processes are unaffected. A simulation model was constructed for carbon and nitrogen transfers among plants and functional groups of microbes and soil fauna. The model was based on extensive information from shortgrass prairie, and employed stabilizing features such as prey refuges and predator switching in the trophic equations. Model parameters were derived either from the literature or were estimated to achieve a good fit between model predictions and data. The model correctly represented (i) the major effects of elevated atmospheric CO₂ and plant species on root and shoot biomass, residue pools, microbial biomass and soil inorganic nitrogen, and (ii) the effects on plant growth of manipulating the composition of the microbial and faunal community. The model was evaluated by comparing predictions to data not used in model development. The 15 functional groups of microbes and soil fauna were deleted one at a time and the model was run to steady state. Only six of the 15 deletions led to as much as a 15% change in abundance of a remaining group, and only two deletions (bacteria and saprophytic fungi) led to extinctions of other groups. Functional groups with greater effect on abundance of other groups were those with greater biomass or greater number of consumers, regardless of trophic position. Of the six deletions affecting the abundance of other groups, only three (bacteria, saprophytic fungi, and root‐feeding nematodes) caused as much as 10% changes in indices of ecosystem function (nitrogen mineralization and primary production). While the soil fauna as a whole were important for maintenance of plant production, no single faunal group had a significant effect. These results suggest that ecosystems could sustain the loss of some functional groups with little decline in ecosystem services, because of compensatory changes in the abundance of surviving groups. However, this prediction probably depends on the nature of stabilizing mechanisms in the system, and these mechanisms are not fully understood.     

土壤生物多样性的研究概况与发展趋势

本文概括性地介绍了土壤生物类群的多样性及其在生态系统中的作用; 同时简要地回顾和比较了国内外在土壤生物学方面的研究动态, 分析了土壤生物学今后的发展趋势。鉴于土壤生物在生态系统中的重要性以及我国在土壤生物学研究方面的不足, 《生物多样性》本期刊登了一系列有关土壤生物的文章, 目的是为了使国内科学家对土壤生物多样性在生态系统中的作用有更好的认识, 并希望能够唤起更多的年轻学者加入到土壤生物学研究的行列, 以推动土壤生物学在我国的迅速发展并将土壤生物学的研究成果应用于国民经济的发展中。     

Ant biodiversity and its relationship to ecosystem functioning: a review

Ants are important components of ecosystems not only because they constitute a great part of the animal biomass but also because they act as ecosystem engineers. Ant biodiversity is incredibly high and these organisms are highly responsive to human impact, which obviously reduces its richness. However, it is not clear how such disturbance damages the maintenance of ant services to the ecosystem. Ants are important in below ground processes through the alteration of the physical and chemical environment and through their effects on plants, microorganisms, and other soil organisms. This review summarizes the information available on ant biodiversity patterns, how it can be quantified, and how biodiversity is affected by human impacts such as land use change, pollution, invasions, and climate change. The role of ants in ecosystems is discussed, mainly from the perspective of the effects of ground-dwelling ants on soil processes and function, emphasizing their role as ecosystem engineers. Some lines of research are suggested after demonstrating the gaps in our current information on ant-soil interactions.     

Human transformation of ecosystems: Comparing protected and unprotected areas with natural baselines

Protected areas serve as reserves of biological diversity and conserve the naturalness of characteristic regional ecosystems. Numerous approaches have been applied to estimate the level of transformation of ecosystems and to compare trends inside and outside of protected areas. In this study, we apply aggregate indicators of anthropogenic pressures on ecosystems and biodiversity in a fine-scale spatial analysis to compare the level of human influence within protected and unprotected areas. The actual state of ecosystems is compared to a natural baseline that is intact or potential natural state. The results show that in a non-protected Central-European landscape, humans appropriate a considerable share of natural ecosystem productivity and carbon stocks, and significantly reduce natural biodiversity and ecosystem services. Human appropriation of net primary production reached more than 60% in total, humans reduced original biodiversity levels by 69%, and net carbon storage was considerably decreased by intensive types of land use. All three indicators significantly differed between protected areas and unprotected areas, suggesting that protected areas maintain higher biodiversity levels, store more carbon and are in total less influenced by human exploitation than average non-protected landscape. Furthermore, we bring evidence that human appropriation of net primary production is negatively related both to biodiversity and ecosystem services indicated by mean species abundance and net carbon storage at the national level. Our results contribute to the quantitative evidence of the impacts of anthropogenic transformation of natural ecosystems on the ecosystem condition, supporting the hypothesis that protected areas significantly reduce anthropogenic pressures and contribute to maintaining critical ecosystem services and biodiversity.     

土壤生物与可持续农业研究进展

农业的可持续发展是人类文明持续繁荣的重要保障。从原始农业到工业化农业的发展历程,是"自然力"不断削弱,"人为调控力"不断加强的过程。新兴的可持续农业,则希望将人为调控和自然过程协调融合,建立近自然的高效的现代农业体系。但是,面对土壤生物极高的多样性、生物和非生物过程的复杂互作及其高度的时空异质性,基于还原论的传统科学研究方法探究地下生态系统的"自然过程"困难重重。人为管理措施对农田生态过程调控的针对性和调控效果受到极大限制。尽管如此,土壤生物在生态系统服务中的作用已在世界范围内得到空前重视。如何充分发挥土壤生物在可持续农业中的作用,已成为现代农业研究领域的重要突破口。简述了土壤生物与可持续农业研究的学科发展历史,总结了农业管理措施对土壤生物及土壤食物网特征的影响,突出了土壤生物群落在可持续农业模式中土壤结构改善、土壤肥力提高和化肥农药减施等方面的积极作用;最后探讨了当前的研究难点和未来的研究方向,并对如何充分发挥土壤生物在现代农业中的贡献进行了初步的思考。认为:土壤有机质,土壤结构和土壤食物网以及三者的内在联系是可持续农业研究的关键。土壤有机质管理是调控土壤结构、土壤食物网及生态系统生产力的重要支点,但也是可持续农业模式不确定性的重要来源。基于同位素示踪等整体性分析方法,开展典型农田生态系统土壤食物网特征及其生态功能的系统研究,揭示农业模式、土壤食物网特征及生态系统生产力的关键联系,是充分发挥土壤生物在可持续农业中的积极作用的基础。     

Multifunctional floodplain management and biodiversity effects: a knowledge synthesis for six European countries

Floodplain ecosystems are biodiversity hotspots and supply multiple ecosystem services. At the same time they are often prone to human pressures that increasingly impact their intactness. Multifunctional floodplain management can be defined as a management approach aimed at a balanced supply of multiple ecosystem services that serve the needs of the local residents, but also those of off-site populations that are directly or indirectly impacted by floodplain management and policies. Multifunctional floodplain management has been recently proposed as a key concept to reconcile biodiversity and ecosystem services with the various human pressures and their driving forces. In this paper we present biophysics and management history of floodplains and review recent multifunctional management approaches and evidence for their biodiversity effects for the six European countries Ireland, the Netherlands, Germany, Slovakia, Hungary and the Ukraine. Multifunctional use of floodplains is an increasingly important strategy in some countries, for instance in the Netherlands and Hungary, and management of floodplains goes hand in hand with sustainable economic activities resulting in flood safety and biodiversity conservation. As a result, biodiversity is increasing in some of the areas where multifunctional floodplain management approaches are implemented. We conclude that for efficient use of management resources and ecosystem services, consensual solutions need to be realized and biodiversity needs to be mainstreamed into management activities to maximize ecosystem service provision and potential human benefits. Multifunctionality is more successful where a broad range of stakeholders with diverse expertise and interests are involved in all stages of planning and implementation.     

Assessment of coastal protection as an ecosystem service in Europe

Mapping and assessment of ecosystem services is essential to provide scientific support to global and EU biodiversity policy. Coastal protection has been mostly analysed in the frame of coastal vulnerability studies or in local, habitat-specific assessments. This paper provides a conceptual and methodological approach to assess coastal protection as an ecosystem service at different spatial–temporal scales, and applies it to the entire EU coastal zone. The assessment of coastal protection incorporates 14 biophysical and socio-economic variables from both terrestrial and marine datasets. Those variables define three indicators: coastal protection capacity, coastal exposure and human demand for protection. A questionnaire filled by coastal researchers helped assign ranks to categorical parameters and weights to the individual variables. The three indicators are then framed into the ecosystem services cascade model to estimate how coastal ecosystems provide protection, in particular describing the service function, flow and benefit. The results are comparative and aim to support integrated land and marine spatial planning. The main drivers of change for the provision of coastal protection come from the widespread anthropogenic pressures in the European coastal zone, for which a short quantitative analysis is provided.     

Biodiversity friend or foe: land use by a top predator,the dingo in contested landscapes of the Australian Wet Tropics

Dingoes (Canis dingo) in the coastal lowlands of Australia's Wet Tropics are perceived as a major threat to biodiversity and subjected to broad‐spectrum lethal control. However, evidence of their impacts is equivocal, and control programmes generally ignore the ecological benefits that dingoes might provide. Previous diet analysis has shown that dingoes in the Wet Tropics primarily prey on common, terrestrial mammals. However, little is known of dingo habitat use or prey acquisition in the region despite these activities having major implications for biodiversity conservation. We investigated land use by dingoes in the lowland Wet Tropics to enable predictions of potential prey types, relative prey use and modes of prey acquisition. Nine dingoes were tracked for 3–6 months. Home ranges and resting areas were estimated using multiple estimators, and habitat use was analysed using compositional analysis of habitat use and generalized additive models. Dingo ranging behaviour suggested that anthropogenic food subsidies were infrequently used. Each territory comprised several sclerophyll forest rest areas with adjacent sugarcane‐grassland high activity areas. Individuals used each rest‐activity area for extended durations before moving on to another. Sclerophyll and rainforests, which contain the fauna species of primary conservation concern, were generally used for rest/sleep, or movement between rest‐activity areas. Activity patterns were consistent with dingoes hunting in open sugarcane‐grassland habitats during daylight hours. Dingo activity was low in areas where fauna species of conservation concern occur, which suggests that dingoes do not pose a threat to their survival. Consequently, current broad‐spectrum lethal control may have minimal benefits or even incur costs for biodiversity. Maximizing the ecosystem services provided by dingoes while simultaneously minimizing their negative impacts requires a more targeted location‐specific management approach, one that assesses and mitigates impacts specifically where background circumstances suggest particular packs may be either a conservation or economic threat.     

Can ecosystem services be integrated with conservation? A case study of breeding waders on grassland

We review published studies to show that changes in soil moisture levels have significant impacts on a range of wading bird species that use UK lowland grassland, including wet grassland, and obtain their food predominantly by probing the soil. We examine both the hydrological and the ecological literature and assess how management options could alter (1) ecosystem services (via water quality and flooding) and (2) habitat quality for wading birds. The combination of biodiversity goals with broader ecosystem services has been widely advocated and we suggest that appropriate management at multiple scales (e.g. small‐scale: ponds; large‐scale: integrated washlands) could potentially provide both ecosystem services and habitat for wading grassland birds. However, there is only a limited base of evidence on which to assess the potential linkage between these two areas, particularly for non‐wading bird species. Future work should be directed at identifying (1) how crop yield, ecosystem services and biodiversity relate to each other, (2) the extent of land needed to be managed to benefit these multiple purposes and bring about measurable gain (e.g. one or two ponds may make significant inroads in reducing run‐off and pollution but make little difference to wading birds) and (3) solutions to the challenges of setting up management options at large spatial scales (e.g. catchments).     

Combined effects of agrochemicals and ecosystem services on crop yield across Europe

Simultaneously enhancing ecosystem services provided by biodiversity below and above ground is recommended to reduce dependence on chemical pesticides and mineral fertilisers in agriculture. However, consequences for crop yield have been poorly evaluated. Above ground, increased landscape complexity is assumed to enhance biological pest control, whereas below ground, soil organic carbon is a proxy for several yield‐supporting services. In a field experiment replicated in 114 fields across Europe, we found that fertilisation had the strongest positive effect on yield, but hindered simultaneous harnessing of below‐ and above‐ground ecosystem services. We furthermore show that enhancing natural enemies and pest control through increasing landscape complexity can prove disappointing in fields with low soil services or in intensively cropped regions. Thus, understanding ecological interdependences between land use, ecosystem services and yield is necessary to promote more environmentally friendly farming by identifying situations where ecosystem services are maximised and agrochemical inputs can be reduced.     

Drought response of five conifer species under contrasting water availability suggests high vulnerability of Norway spruce and European larch

The ability of tree species to cope with anticipated decrease in water availability is still poorly understood. We evaluated the potential of Norway spruce, Scots pine, European larch, black pine, and Douglas‐fir to withstand drought in a drier future climate by analyzing their past growth and physiological responses at a xeric and a mesic site in Central Europe using dendroecological methods. Earlywood, latewood, and total ring width, as well as the δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O in early‐ and latewood were measured and statistically related to a multiscalar soil water deficit index from 1961 to 2009. At the xeric site, δ¹³C values of all species were strongly linked to water deficits that lasted longer than 11 months, indicating a long‐term cumulative effect on the carbon pool. Trees at the xeric site were particularly sensitive to soil water recharge in the preceding autumn and early spring. The native species European larch and Norway spruce, growing close to their dry distribution limit at the xeric site, were found to be the most vulnerable species to soil water deficits. At the mesic site, summer water availability was critical for all species, whereas water availability prior to the growing season was less important. Trees at the mesic were more vulnerable to water deficits of shorter duration than the xeric site. We conclude that if summers become drier, trees growing on mesic sites will undergo significant growth reductions, whereas at their dry distribution limit in the Alps, tree growth of the highly sensitive spruce and larch may collapse, likely inducing dieback and compromising the provision of ecosystem services. However, the magnitude of these changes will be mediated strongly by soil water recharge in winter and thus water availability at the beginning of the growing season.     

间套作种植提升农田生态系统服务功能

间套作是指在同一块土地上同时种植两种或两种以上的作物,能够充分利用有限资源,提升单位面积物质产出,同时还具有多重其他生态效益,是一种基于生物多样性的可持续农业发展范式.生态系统服务是评价生态系统功能的重要突破口,也是当前生态学领域研究的热点问题.从生态系统服务的角度论述间套作种植提升农田生态系统服务功能,并从物质产出、土壤肥力维持、生物多样性保护、水土保持、病虫草害和有害污染物控制等方面论述了间套作种植提升农田生态系统功能的实践及机制.在此基础上,构建了间套作农田生态系统服务功能评价的理论框架和指标体系,并提出了间套作种植农田生态系统未来应加强的研究方向.     

生物多样性与生态系统服务情景模拟研究进展

生物多样性和生态系统服务情景模拟是指对未来生物多样性和生态系统服务变化轨迹的定量估计,二者相互关联并为长期、稳定的保护和恢复生态系统提供了重要科学依据。梳理生物多样性以及生态系统服务预测情景的核心观点,讨论基于生物多样性和生态系统服务情景模拟的保护决策支持途径,以期服务于我国生物多样性与生态系统服务预测研究的发展和深化。研究凝练结果如下：物种分布模型需要进行更规范的评价以明晰其对具体对象的适用性,生态系统预测模型亟待在关系结构的基础上嵌入更多的生态系统过程和社会经济过程,生态系统服务评估模型有必要强化对生物多样性、生态系统服务、人类福祉级联特征的刻画;全球气候变化驱动了未来区域生物多样性的大幅改变;土地利用则是陆地生态系统服务预测中的核心驱动变量。生态区划与区域尺度情景模拟、景观尺度下的生态安全格局构建、基于社会生态网络的社区适应三点重要展望方向将对基于情景模拟的我国生态系统保护决策提供重要的理论和实践支持。