Trait‐dependent distributional shifts in fruiting of common British fungi

Despite the dramatic phenological responses of fungal fruiting to recent climate warming, it is unknown whether spatial distributions of fungi have changed and to what extent such changes are influenced by fungal traits, such as ectomycorrhizal (ECM) or saprotrophic lifestyles, spore characteristics, or fruit body size. Our overall aim was to understand how climate and fungal traits determine whether and how species‐specific fungal fruit body abundances have shifted across latitudes over time, using the UK national database of fruiting records. The data employed were recorded over 45 yr (1970–2014), and include 853 278 records of Agaricales, Boletales and Russulales, though we focus only on the most common species (with more than 3000 records each). The georeferenced observations were analysed by a Bayesian inference as a Gaussian additive model with a specification following a joint species distribution model. We used an offset, random contributions and fixed effects to isolate different potential biases from the trait‐specific interactions with latitude/climate and time. Our main aim was assessed by examination of the three‐way‐interaction of trait, predictor (latitude or climate) and time. The results show a strong trait‐specific shift in latitudinal abundance through time, as ECM species have become more abundant relative to saprotrophic species in the north. Along precipitation gradients, phenology was important, in that species with shorter fruiting seasons have declined markedly in abundance in oceanic regions, whereas species with longer seasons have become relatively more common overall. These changes in fruit body distributions are correlated with temperature and rainfall, which act directly on both saprotrophic and ECM fungi, and also indirectly on ECM fungi, through altered photosynthate allocation from their hosts. If these distributional changes reflect fungal activity, there will be important consequences for the responses of forest ecosystems to changing climate, through effects on primary production and nutrient cycling.     

Climate-induced long-term changes in the phenology of Mediterranean fungi

Long-term responses in the phenology of Mediterranean macrofungi to climatic changes are poorly documented. Here, we address this issue by comparing the fruiting patterns of 159 fungal species in Southern France between the first half of the 19th century and the first decade of the 21st century. We used a trait-based approach to assess the influence of phenology and morphology of fungal fruit bodies and their site ecology and biogeography on the response to climate change. We show that early autumnal fruiters, epigeous species and species with affinities for cold climates now start to fruit on average 16.4, 17.3 and 17.3 d later compared to their emergence dates in the 19th century, while late fruiters, hypogeous species and Mediterranean-restricted species did not change their fruiting date. Among ecological guilds, saproxylic species and pine-associated mutualists delayed their autumnal emergence by 32.5 and 19.2 d, likely in response to a delayed rewetting of litter and woody debris after extended summer drought. Our results suggest that long-term climate warming in the Mediterranean was accompanied by contrasting changes in the emergence of fungal fruit bodies according to ecological guilds, sporocarp life-forms and forest types.     

Fine‐scale spatiotemporal dynamics of fungal fruiting: prevalence,amplitude, range and continuity

Despite the critical importance of fungi as symbionts with plants, resources for animals, and drivers of ecosystem function, the spatiotemporal distributions of fungi remain poorly understood. The belowground life cycle of fungi makes it difficult to assess spatial patterns and dynamic processes even with recent molecular techniques. Here we offer an explicit spatiotemporal Bayesian inference of the drivers behind spatial distributions from investigation of a Swiss inventory of fungal fruit bodies. The unique inventory includes three temperate forest sites in which a total of 73 952 fungal fruit bodies were recorded systematically in a spatially explicit design between 1992 and 2006. Our motivation is to understand how broad‐scale climate factors may influence spatiotemporal dynamics of fungal fruiting within forests, and if any such effects vary between two functional groups, ectomycorrhizal (ECM) and saprotrophic fungi. For both groups we asked: 1) how consistent are the locations of fruiting patches, the sizes of patches, the quantities of fruit bodies, and of prevalence (occupancy)? 2) Do the annual spatial characteristics of fungal fruiting change systematically over time? 3) Are spatial characteristics of fungal fruiting driven by climatic variation? We found high inter‐annual continuity in fruiting for both functional groups. The saprotrophic species were characterised by small patches with variable fruit body counts. In contrast, ECM species were present in larger, but more distinctly delimited patches. The spatial characteristics of the fungal community were only indirectly influenced by climate. However, climate variability influenced overall yields and prevalence, which again links to spatial structure of fruit bodies. Both yield and prevalence were correlated with the amplitudes of occurrence and of fruit body counts, but only prevalence influenced the spatial range. Summarizing, climatic variability affects forest‐stand fungal distributions via its influence on yield (amount) and prevalence (occupancy), whereas fungal life‐history strategies dictate fine‐scale spatial characteristics.     

Fruiting phenology is linked to rainfall variability in a tropical rain forest

As the influence of climate change on tropical forests becomes apparent, more studies are needed to understand how changes in climatic variables such as rainfall are likely to affect tree phenology. Using a twelve‐year dataset (2005–2016), we studied the impact of seasonal rainfall patterns on the fruiting phenology of 69 tree species in the rain forest of southeastern Madagascar. We found that average annual rainfall in this region has increased by >800 mm (23%) during this period relative to that recorded for the previous 40 years and was highly variable both within and between years. Higher monthly measures of fruiting richness and the intensity of fruiting in our sample community were associated with significantly higher levels of rainfall. We also found that less rainfall during the dry season, but not the wet season, was associated with a significant shift toward later timing of peak richness and peak intensity of fruiting in the subsequent 12 months; however, this pattern was driven primarily by an extreme drought event that occurred during the study period. Longer time scales of phenology data are needed to see whether this pattern is consistent. Madagascar is expected to experience more extremes in rainfall and drought with increasing climate change. Thus, the linkages between variable precipitation and the fruiting phenology of forest trees will have important consequences for understanding plant reproduction and the ability of Madagascar's wildlife to cope with a changing climate.     

Fruiting patterns of macrofungi in tropical and temperate land use types in Yunnan Province,China

Despite the important contribution of fungi to forest health, biomass turnover and carbon cycling, little is known about the factors that influence fungal phenology. Therefore, in order to further our understanding on how macrofungal fruiting patterns change along a gradient from temperate to tropical climate zones, we investigated the phenological patterns of macrofungal fruiting at five sites along a combined altitudinal and latitudinal gradient in SW China and NW Laos, ranging from temperate to tropical climates. Observations were conducted in the dominant land use types at these study sites: mixed forest (all sites), coniferous forest (temperate sites) and grassland (temperate sites). In total, 2866 specimens were collected, belonging to 791 morpho species, 162 genera, and 71 families. At the site level, the fruiting of ectomycorrhizal (EcMF) and saprotrophic fungi (SapF) occurred at the same time among all land use types. The fruiting season of fungi in the tropical sites began earlier and ended later compared to that of fungi in the temperate sites, which we attribute mainly to the higher temperature and more abundant rainfall of the tropical areas. EcMF taxa richness in temperate forests (both coniferous and mixed forest) showed a distinct peak at the end of the rainy season in August and September, while no significant peak was observed for SapF taxa richness. Neither functional fungal groups showed significant seasonal fluctuations in tropical areas. The temporal turnover of fungal fruiting significantly increased with the shift from tropical to temperate forests along the elevation gradient. In the grasslands, macrofungal abundance was less than 22% of that of corresponding forest sites, and taxa richness was 42% of that of corresponding forest sites. Fungal fruiting showed no significant fluctuations across the rainy season. This work represents a case study carried out over one year, and further measurements will be needed to test if these results hold true in the longer term.     

Long‐term experimental warming alters community composition of ascomycetes in Alaskan moist and dry arctic tundra

Arctic tundra regions have been responding to global warming with visible changes in plant community composition, including expansion of shrubs and declines in lichens and bryophytes. Even though it is well known that the majority of arctic plants are associated with their symbiotic fungi, how fungal community composition will be different with climate warming remains largely unknown. In this study, we addressed the effects of long‐term (18 years) experimental warming on the community composition and taxonomic richness of soil ascomycetes in dry and moist tundra types. Using deep Ion Torrent sequencing, we quantified how OTU assemblage and richness of different orders of Ascomycota changed in response to summer warming. Experimental warming significantly altered ascomycete communities with stronger responses observed in the moist tundra compared with dry tundra. The proportion of several lichenized and moss‐associated fungi decreased with warming, while the proportion of several plant and insect pathogens and saprotrophic species was higher in the warming treatment. The observed alterations in both taxonomic and ecological groups of ascomycetes are discussed in relation to previously reported warming‐induced shifts in arctic plant communities, including decline in lichens and bryophytes and increase in coverage and biomass of shrubs.     

Fruiting body and soil rDNA sampling detects complementary assemblage of Agaricomycotina (Basidiomycota, Fungi) in a hemlock-dominated forest plot in southern Ontario

This is the first study to assess the diversity and community structure of the Agaricomycotina in an ectotrophic forest using above-ground fruiting body surveys as well as soil rDNA sampling. We recovered 132 molecular operational taxonomic units, or 'species', from fruiting bodies and 66 from soil, with little overlap. Fruiting body sampling primarily recovered fungi from the Agaricales, Russulales, Boletales and Cantharellales. Many of these species are ectomycorrhizal and form large fruiting bodies. Soil rDNA sampling recovered fungi from these groups in addition to taxa overlooked during the fruiting body survey from the Atheliales, Trechisporales and Sebacinales. Species from these groups form inconspicuous, resupinate and corticioid fruiting bodies. Soil sampling also detected fungi from the Hysterangiales that form fruiting bodies underground. Generally, fruiting body and soil rDNA samples recover a largely different assemblage of fungi at the species level; however, both methods identify the same dominant fungi at the genus-order level and ectomycorrhizal fungi as the prevailing type. Richness, abundance, and phylogenetic diversity (PD) identify the Agaricales as the dominant fungal group above- and below-ground; however, we find that molecularly highly divergent lineages may account for a greater proportion of total diversity using the PD measure compared with richness and abundance. Unless an exhaustive inventory is required, the rapidity and versatility of DNA-based sampling may be sufficient for a first assessment of the dominant taxonomic and ecological groups of fungi in forest soil.     

The forgotten season: the impact of autumn phenology on a specialist insect herbivore community on oak

1. Variation in spring phenology – like tree budburst – affects the structure of insect communities, but impacts of autumn phenology have been neglected. Many plant species have recently delayed their autumn phenology, and the timing of leaf senescence may be important for herbivorous insects. 2. This study explored how an insect herbivore community associated with Quercus robur is influenced by variation in autumn phenology. For this, schools were asked to record, across the range of oak in Sweden, the autumn phenology of oaks and to conduct a survey of the insect community. 3. To tease apart the relative impacts of climate from that of tree phenology, regional tree phenology was first modelled as a function of regional climate, and the tree‐specific deviation from this relationship was then used as the metric of relative tree‐specific phenology. 4. At the regional scale, a warmer climate postponed oak leaf senescence. This was also reflected in the insect herbivore community: six out of 15 taxa occurred at a higher incidence and five out of 18 taxa were more abundant, in locations with a warmer climate. Similarly, taxonomic richness and herbivory were higher in warmer locations. 5. Trees with a relatively late autumn phenology had higher abundances of leaf miners (Phyllonorycter spp.). This caused lower community diversity and evenness on trees with later autumn phenology. 6. The findings of the present study illustrate that both regional climate‐driven patterns and local variation in oak autumn phenology contribute to shaping the insect herbivore community. Community patterns may thus shift with a changing climate.     

Contemporary climate change in the Sonoran Desert favors cold‐adapted species

Impacts of long‐term climate shifts on the dynamics of intact communities within species ranges are not well understood. Here, we show that warming and drying of the Southwestern United States over the last 25 years has corresponded to a shift in the species composition of Sonoran Desert winter annuals, paradoxically favoring species that germinate and grow best in cold temperatures. Winter rains have been arriving later in the season, during December rather than October, leading to the unexpected result that plants are germinating under colder temperatures, shifting community composition to favor slow growing, water‐use efficient, cold‐adapted species. Our results demonstrate how detailed ecophysiological knowledge of individual species, combined with long‐term demographic data, can reveal complex and sometimes unexpected shifts in community composition in response to climate change. Further, these results highlight the potentially overwhelming impact of changes in phenology on the response of biota to a changing climate.     

Footprints of climate change in the Arctic marine ecosystem

In this article, we review evidence of how climate change has already resulted in clearly discernable changes in marine Arctic ecosystems. After defining the term ‘footprint’ and evaluating the availability of reliable baseline information we review the published literature to synthesize the footprints of climate change impacts in marine Arctic ecosystems reported as of mid‐2009. We found a total of 51 reports of documented changes in Arctic marine biota in response to climate change. Among the responses evaluated were range shifts and changes in abundance, growth/condition, behaviour/phenology and community/regime shifts. Most reports concerned marine mammals, particularly polar bears, and fish. The number of well‐documented changes in planktonic and benthic systems was surprisingly low. Evident losses of endemic species in the Arctic Ocean, and in ice algae production and associated community remained difficult to evaluate due to the lack of quantitative reports of its abundance and distribution. Very few footprints of climate change were reported in the literature from regions such as the wide Siberian shelf and the central Arctic Ocean due to the limited research effort made in these ecosystems. Despite the alarming nature of warming and its strong potential effects in the Arctic Ocean the research effort evaluating the impacts of climate change in this region is rather limited.     

Solar radiation and ENSO predict fruiting phenology patterns in a 15‐year record from Kibale National Park,Uganda

Fruiting, flowering, and leaf set patterns influence many aspects of tropical forest communities, but there are few long‐term studies examining potential drivers of these patterns, particularly in Africa. We evaluated a 15‐year dataset of tree phenology in Kibale National Park, Uganda, to identify abiotic predictors of fruit phenological patterns and discuss our findings in light of climate change. We quantified fruiting for 326 trees from 43 species and evaluated these patterns in relation to solar radiance, rainfall, and monthly temperature. We used time‐lagged variables based on seasonality in linear regression models to assess the effect of abiotic variables on the proportion of fruiting trees. Annual fruiting varied over 3.8‐fold, and inter‐annual variation in fruiting is associated with the extent of fruiting in the peak period, not variation in time of fruit set. While temperature and rainfall showed positive effects on fruiting, solar radiance in the two‐year period encompassing a given year and the previous year was the strongest predictor of fruiting. As solar irradiance was the strongest predictor of fruiting, the projected increase in rainfall associated with climate change, and coincident increase in cloud cover suggest that climate change will lead to a decrease in fruiting. ENSO in the prior 24‐month period was also significantly associated with annual ripe fruit production, and ENSO is also affected by climate change. Predicting changes in phenology demands understanding inter‐annual variation in fruit dynamics in light of potential abiotic drivers, patterns that will only emerge with long‐term data.     

Cascading effects of climate extremes on vertebrate fauna through changes to low‐latitude tree flowering and fruiting phenology

Forest vertebrate fauna provide critical services, such as pollination and seed dispersal, which underpin functional and resilient ecosystems. In turn, many of these fauna are dependent on the flowering phenology of the plant species of such ecosystems. The impact of changes in climate, including climate extremes, on the interaction between these fauna and flora has not been identified or elucidated, yet influences on flowering phenology are already evident. These changes are well documented in the mid to high latitudes. However, there is emerging evidence that the flowering phenology, nectar/pollen production, and fruit production of long‐lived trees in tropical and subtropical forests are also being impacted by changes in the frequency and severity of climate extremes. Here, we examine the implications of these changes for vertebrate fauna dependent on these resources. We review the literature to establish evidence for links between climate extremes and flowering phenology, elucidating the nature of relationships between different vertebrate taxa and flowering regimes. We combine this information with climate change projections to postulate about the likely impacts on nectar, pollen and fruit resource availability and the consequences for dependent vertebrate fauna. The most recent climate projections show that the frequency and intensity of climate extremes will increase during the 21st century. These changes are likely to significantly alter mass flowering and fruiting events in the tropics and subtropics, which are frequently cued by climate extremes, such as intensive rainfall events or rapid temperature shifts. We find that in these systems the abundance and duration of resource availability for vertebrate fauna is likely to fluctuate, and the time intervals between episodes of high resource availability to increase. The combined impact of these changes has the potential to result in cascading effects on ecosystems through changes in pollinator and seed dispersal ecology, and demands a focused research effort.     

Shifts in phenology due to global climate change: the need for a yardstick

Climate change has led to shifts in phenology in many species distributed widely across taxonomic groups. It is, however, unclear how we should interpret these shifts without some sort of a yardstick: a measure that will reflect how much a species should be shifting to match the change in its environment caused by climate change. Here, we assume that the shift in the phenology of a species' food abundance is, by a first approximation, an appropriate yardstick. We review the few examples that are available, ranging from birds to marine plankton. In almost all of these examples, the phenology of the focal species shifts either too little (five out of 11) or too much (three out of 11) compared to the yardstick. Thus, many species are becoming mistimed due to climate change. We urge researchers with long-term datasets on phenology to link their data with those that may serve as a yardstick, because documentation of the incidence of climate change-induced mistiming is crucial in assessing the impact of global climate change on the natural world.     

Temperate forest termites: ecology,biogeography, and ecosystem impacts

1. Wood decomposition in temperate forests is dominated by termites, fungi, and some species of ants and beetles. Outside of urban areas, temperate termite ecology is largely unknown, particularly when compared to tropical termites and other temperate organisms in the functional guild of wood‐decomposing animals. 2. This review combines climate habitat modelling with knowledge of species physiology, behaviour, and community interactions to identify and prioritise future research on temperate termite ecology and biogeography. 3. Using a correlative climate model, the regional distributions of three common temperate forest termite species are shown to correlate with different aspects of climate (e.g. mean versus minimum monthly temperature), but that overall their distributions within temperate systems correlate more strongly with temperature variables than with precipitation variables. 4. Existing data are synthesised to outline how the subterranean, wood‐nesting behaviour of most temperate forest termite species links their activity to an additional set of non‐climate controls: wood type and tree species, soil depth, fungal activity, ant abundances and phenology, and competitive asymmetries among termite species. 5. Although fine‐scale estimates of temperate termite abundances are rare, we provide upper bounds on their ecosystem impacts and illustrate how their regional abundances may influence forest structure and habitat availability for other organisms. 6. This review highlights that rigorous ecological studies in non‐urban, intact ecosystems – with a particular focus on community interactions – are critically needed to accurately project future abundances, economic impacts, and ecosystem effects of temperate forest termites.     

How do seasonality,substrate, and management history influence macrofungal fruiting assemblages in a central Amazonian Forest?

Worldwide, fungal richness peaks in tropical forest biomes where they are the primary drivers of decomposition. Understanding how environmental and anthropogenic factors influence tropical macrofungal fruiting patterns should provide insight as to how, for example, climate change and deforestation may impact their long‐term demographic stability and evolutionary potential. However, in Amazonia no studies have yet to disentangle the effects of substrate, seasonality and forest history on phenology. Here, we quantitate spatial and temporal variation in community structure of fruiting macrofungi in relation to these factors at a long‐term forest management research site in central Amazonia: the Biomass and Nutrients of Tropical Rain Forest (BIONTE's). Basidiome surveys of four substrate classes (leaves, soil, branches and trunks) were conducted along 250 m² transects in primary and secondary (managed) forests, between 2012–13. From the 669 basidiomes collected, 290 taxa were identified of which 44 percent were restricted to primary and 36 percent to secondary forests. Although species‐accumulation curves did not asymptote, rarefaction analyses and Fisher's alpha indicate contrasting differences in richness among forests in relation to substrate type. For example, leaf litter basidiome richness was higher in secondary forests, whereas the contrary was observed for soil communities, suggesting that variation in fruiting patterns in relation to disturbance is substrate‐dependent possibly due to differences in necromass quality and/or understory micro‐climates. Furthermore, secondary forests harbored significantly lower basidiome richness and abundance in dry months, suggesting synergistic impacts of seasonality and management history on fruiting regimes.     

Temperature cues phenological synchrony in ant‐mediated seed dispersal

Species‐specific climate responses within ecological communities may disrupt the synchrony of co‐evolved mutualisms that are based on the shared timing of seasonal events, such as seed dispersal by ants (myrmecochory). The spring phenology of plants and ants coincides with marked changes in temperature, light and moisture. We investigate how these environmental drivers influence both seed release by early and late spring woodland herb species, and initiation of spring foraging by seed‐dispersing ants. We pair experimental herbaceous transplants with artificial ant bait stations across north‐ and south‐facing slopes at two contrasting geographic locations. This use of space enables robust identification of plant fruiting and ant foraging cues, and the use of transplants permits us to assess plasticity in plant phenology. We find that warming temperatures act as the primary phenological cue for plant fruiting and ant foraging. Moreover, the plasticity in plant response across locations, despite transplants being from the same source, suggests a high degree of portability in the seed‐dispersing mutualism. However, we also find evidence for potential climate‐driven facilitative failure that may lead to phenological asynchrony. Specifically, at the location where the early flowering species (Hepatica nobilis) is decreasing in abundance and distribution, we find far fewer seed‐dispersing ants foraging during its fruit set than during that of the later flowering Hexastylis arifolia. Notably, the key seed disperser, Aphaenogaster rudis, fails to emerge during early fruit set at this location. At the second location, A. picea forages equally during early and late seed release. These results indicate that climate‐driven changes might shift species‐specific interactions in a plant–ant mutualism resulting in winners and losers within the myrmecochorous plant guild.     

Temperature‐related shifts in butterfly phenology depend on the habitat

Many species are becoming active earlier in the season as the climate becomes warmer. In parallel to phenological responses to climate change, many species have also been affected by habitat changes due to anthropogenic land use. As habitat type can directly affect microclimatic conditions, concurrent changes in climate and habitat could have interacting effects on the phenology of species. Temperature‐related shifts in phenology, however, have mostly been studied independent of habitat types. Here, I used long‐term data from a highly standardized monitoring program with 519 transects to study how phenology of butterflies is affected by ambient temperature and habitat type. I compared forests, agricultural areas and settlements, reflecting three major land use forms, and considered butterfly species that were observed in all three of these habitats. Seasonal appearance of the butterflies was affected both by the ambient temperature and the habitat type. As expected, warmer temperatures led to an overall advancement of the appearance and flight period of most species. Surprisingly, however, phenology of species was delayed in settlement habitats, even though this habitat type is generally associated with higher temperatures. A possible explanation is dispersal among habitat types, such that source–sink effects affect local phenology. When there is little productivity in settlement areas, observed butterflies may have immigrated from forest or agricultural habitats and thus appear later in settlements. My findings suggest that a spillover of individuals among habitats may affect phenology trends and indicate that phenological studies need to be interpreted in the context of habitat types. This becomes especially important when defining strategies to prevent or mitigate effects of climate and land‐use changes on phenology and abundance of species.     

Contrasting soil fungal community responses to experimental nitrogen addition using the large subunit rRNA taxonomic marker and cellobiohydrolase I functional marker

Human activities have resulted in increased nitrogen inputs into terrestrial ecosystems, but the impact of nitrogen on ecosystem function, such as nutrient cycling, will depend at least in part on the response of soil fungal communities. We examined the response of soil fungi to experimental nitrogen addition in a loblolly pine forest (North Carolina, USA) using a taxonomic marker (large subunit rDNA, LSU) and a functional marker involved in a critical step of cellulose degradation (cellobiohydrolase, cbhI) at five time points that spanned fourteen months. Sampling date had no impact on fungal community richness or composition for either gene. Based on the LSU, nitrogen addition led to increased fungal community richness, reduced relative abundance of fungi in the phylum Basidiomycota and altered community composition; however, similar shifts were not observed with cbhI. Fungal community dissimilarity of the LSU and cbhI genes was significantly correlated in the ambient plots, but not in nitrogen‐amended plots, suggesting either functional redundancy of fungi with the cbhI gene or shifts in other functional groups in response to nitrogen addition. To determine whether sequence similarity of cbhI could be predicted based on taxonomic relatedness of fungi, we conducted a phylogenetic analysis of publically available cbhI sequences from known isolates and found that for a subset of isolates, similar cbhI genes were found within distantly related fungal taxa. Together, these findings suggest that taxonomic shifts in the total fungal community do not necessarily result in changes in the functional diversity of fungi.     

Herbarium specimens show patterns of fruiting phenology in native and invasive plant species across New England

Premise of the Study

Patterns of fruiting phenology in temperate ecosystems are poorly understood, despite the ecological importance of fruiting for animal nutrition and seed dispersal. Herbarium specimens represent an under‐utilized resource for investigating geographical and climatic factors affecting fruiting times within species, patterns in fruiting times among species, and differences between native and non‐native invasive species.

Methods

We examined over 15,000 herbarium specimens, collected and housed across New England, and found 3159 specimens with ripe fruits, collected from 1849–2013. We examined patterns in fruiting phenology among 37 native and 18 invasive woody plant species common to New England. We compared fruiting dates between native and invasive species, and analyzed how fruiting phenology varies with temperature, space, and time.

Key Results

Spring temperature and year explained a small but significant amount of the variation in fruiting dates. Accounting for the moderate phylogenetic signal in fruiting phenology, invasive species fruited 26 days later on average than native species, with significantly greater standard deviations.

Conclusions

Herbarium specimens can be used to detect patterns in fruiting times among species. However, the amount of intraspecific variation in fruiting times explained by temporal, geographic, and climatic predictors is small, due to a combination of low temporal resolution of fruiting specimens and the protracted nature of fruiting. Later fruiting times in invasive species, combined with delays in autumn bird migrations in New England, may increase the likelihood that migratory birds will consume and disperse invasive seeds in New England later into the year.     

Predicting future coexistence in a North American ant community

Global climate change will remodel ecological communities worldwide. However, as a consequence of biotic interactions, communities may respond to climate change in idiosyncratic ways. This makes predictive models that incorporate biotic interactions necessary. We show how such models can be constructed based on empirical studies in combination with predictions or assumptions regarding the abiotic consequences of climate change. Specifically, we consider a well‐studied ant community in North America. First, we use historical data to parameterize a basic model for species coexistence. Using this model, we determine the importance of various factors, including thermal niches, food discovery rates, and food removal rates, to historical species coexistence. We then extend the model to predict how the community will restructure in response to several climate‐related changes, such as increased temperature, shifts in species phenology, and altered resource availability. Interestingly, our mechanistic model suggests that increased temperature and shifts in species phenology can have contrasting effects. Nevertheless, for almost all scenarios considered, we find that the most subordinate ant species suffers most as a result of climate change. More generally, our analysis shows that community composition can respond to climate warming in nonintuitive ways. For example, in the context of a community, it is not necessarily the most heat‐sensitive species that are most at risk. Our results demonstrate how models that account for niche partitioning and interspecific trade‐offs among species can be used to predict the likely idiosyncratic responses of local communities to climate change.