Explanation and Falsification in Phylogenetic Inference: Exercises in Popperian Philosophy

Deduction leads to causal explanation in phylogenetic inference when the evidence, the systematic character, is conceptualized as a transformation series. Also, the deductive entailment of modus tollens is satisfied when those kinds of events are operationalized as patristic difference. Arguments to the contrary are based largely on the premise that character-states are defined intensionally as objects, in terms of similarity relations. However, such relations leave biologists without epistemological access to the causal explanation and explanatory power of historical statements. Moreover, the prediction-making to which those kinds of relations are limited in practice can lead to a category error—the mental conversion of an abstraction (the classes defined in terms of similarity relations) into a thing (such as an historical individual). The latter practices and problems characterize pattern cladistics, taxa being interpreted as homeostatic property cluster natural kinds, and other instrumentalist research programs.     

A Review on Cladistics

The theoretical bases and approaches of cladistics and some specific problems that, directly or indirectly, rely on cladistic analysis for their revolution, are outlined and discussed. Seven sections comprise this paper: a ) the philosophical foundation of cladistics; b) the theoretical tenets of cladistics; c) the operational procedure of cladisties; d) three schools of classification; e) cladistics and biogeography; f) cladistics and hybrid recognition; and g) is cladistic systematics a scientific theory ? Considerations of scientific methodology involve philosophical questions. From this point, Popper'falsificationism serves a good foundation. Popper emphasizes that all scientific knowledge is hypothetical-deductive, consisting of general statements (theories) that can never be confirmed or verified but only falsified. The theories, that can be tested most effectively, are preferable. Cladistics, aiming at generating accurately expressed and strictly testable systematic hypotheses, is well compatible with this requirement. The principles central to the cladistic theory and methodology are: the Principle of Synapomorphy; the Principle of Strict Monophyly; and the Principle of Strict Parsimony. The first requires forming nested groups by nesting statements about shared evolutionary novelties (synapomorphy) postulated from observed similarities and is the primary one. The second is mainly methodological, subject to modification and compromise. The principle of strict parsimony specifies the most preferable hypothesis (namely the one exhibiting the most congruence in the synapomorphy pattern). The operational procedure that might be followed in formulating and testing hypotheses of the synapomorphy pattern (the cladogram itself) consists of five steps. The erections of monophyletic groups, to a greater or lesser extent, rely on the hypothesis of the previous systematic studies and is the starting point for cladistic analysis. Character analysis, which focuses on character distribution and determination of the polarities, decides the reconstructed phylogeny. A detailed discussion on the methodological principles for identifying transformation sequence is presented. Many algorithms have been designated to infer the cladogram, and are basically of parsimony techniques and Compatibility techiques. The thus yielded cladograms, with their expected pattern of congruent synapomorphies, are tests of a particular hypothesis of synapomorphy and reciprocally synapomorphies are tests of cladistic hypothesis (cladogram). Such reciprocity is a strong stimulus to profound understanding on phylogenetic process and phyletic relationships. The cladogram and the Linnaean classification have the identical logic structure and the set-membership of the two can be made isomorphic. There are three principal approaches to biological classification : cladistics, phenetics and evolutionary classification. Cladistics is the determination of the branching pattern of evolution, and in the context of classification, the development of nested sets based on cladograms. Phenetics is the classification by overall similarities, without regard to evolutionary considerations. Evolutionary classification attempts to consider all meaningful aspects of phylogeny and to use these for making a classification. The last approach has been done intuitively, without explicit methods. An enumeration of their differences and a discussion on their relative merits are presented. Three theoretical approaches have been proposed for interpreting biogeographical history: the phylogenetic theory of biogeography, classical evolutionary biogeography and vicariance biogeography. The former two show some similarities in that they usually look upon biogeography in terms of centers of origin and dispersal from the centers. But the first puts a strong emphasis on the construction of hypotheses about the phylogenetic relationships of the organisms in question and the subsequent inference of their geographic relationships; the second advocates a theory which does not have a precise deductive link with phylogenetic construction and often results in wildly narratative-type hypotheses. The vicariance approach de-emphasizes the concepts of centers of origin and dispersal and attempts to analyse distribution patterns in terms of subdivision (vicariance) of ancestral biotas. The development of the theory of plate tectonics and its universal acceptance enormously stimulate biogeographers to look at the world's continents and oceans from a mobilist point, which, along with the establishment of the rigorous tool of the phylogenetic analysis (cladistics), profoundly reshapes the above three theories. Hybridization and polyploidy are outstanding features of many plant groups. But hybridization, or reticulate evolution, is inconsistent with the basic concepts of cladistics which is an ever-branching pattern. Cladists have suggested several approaches. One of them analyses all the taxa by a standard cladistic procedure and closely examines the cladograms for polytomies and character conflicts that may indicate possible hybrids. Such generated hypothesis of hybridization can be corroborated or falsified by other forms of data, such as distribution, polyploidy, karyotype and pollen fertility. There are three criteria to justify a theory to be scientific: a) whether it is a theory composed of hypotheses strictly falsifiable; b) whether it has predictive effect; and c) whether it has a explanatory value. Cladistic systematics aims at generating cladograms, which are hypotheses of the nested pattern of synapomorphy, phylogenetic process and phyletic relationships, susceptible to testing by postulated synapomorphies. The predictive effect of systematics relies on the acceptance of hypotheses of congruence about the correlation of characters, which has been well founded. For non-systematic biologists, phylogenetic classification can be used as axiom to form a preliminary and fundamental explanation.     

Track analysis of the marine palaeofauna from the Turonian (Late Cretaceous)

Aim  To analyse the worldwide distribution patterns of Turonian marine biotas using a panbiogeographical approach.
Location  Turonian localities of southern and north-eastern Brazil, Mexico, Canada, central Europe, England and Morocco.
Method  Panbiogeographical track analysis.
Results  Nine generalized tracks and six nodes were found. The generalized tracks comprise two vicariant track patterns (one northern and one mid-southern) across the Atlantic.
Main conclusions  The generalized tracks show clearly two separate marine biotas, which were associated with the proto-South Atlantic and the proto-North Atlantic oceans. These generalized tracks, as well as the two vicariant track clusters between the north and south Atlantic, are identified by vicariant relationships shared by most of the taxa analysed, and illustrate the final break up of the Gondwana and Laurasia supercontinents and the consequences of vicariant events for the biogeography of the Atlantic Ocean.     

Critique of parsimony analysis of endemicity as a method of historical biogeography

Aim Assess the value of parsimony analysis of endemism as either an a priori (cladistic) and an a posteriori (phylogenetic) method of historical biogeography. Location World‐wide. Methods Parsimony analysis of endemicity (PAE) and Brooks parsimony analysis (BPA). Results Parsimony analysis of endemicity is capable of finding correct and unambiguous area relationships only under scenarios of vicariance in combination with non‐response to vicariance or extinction. An empirical comparison between PAE and BPA, using the poeciliid fish genera Heterandria and Xiphophorus, demonstrates that PAE fails to document much of the historical complexity in this relatively simple system. Main conclusions The a priori assumptions of PAE are far more restrictive than those made by other a priori methods, limiting its utility as a method of cladistic biogeography. The inability of PAE to detect perfect vicariance or biogeographical histories involving dispersal, renders it unsuitable as a method of phylogenetic biogeography.     

Historical biogeography of Southeast Asia and the West Pacific,or the generality of unrooted area networks as historical biogeographic hypotheses

Aim Unrooted area networks are perhaps a general way in which different historical biogeographical patterns may be combined. Location Southeast Asia up to the West Pacific, Australia, South America. Methods Unrooted area networks based on Primary Brooks Parsimony Analysis of different data sets of Southeast Asian–West Pacific, Australian and South American clades. Results A large Brooks Parsimony historical (cladistic) biogeographic analysis of Southeast Asia and the West Pacific gave a meaningful result when all clades (representing different historical biogeographic patterns) were united into one matrix and an unrooted area network was produced. This network showed geographically adjacent areas as neighbours, which is interpreted as clades dispersing and speciating as soon as areas rafted towards each other. This pseudo‐vicariance mechanism, together with the very limited, mainly linear dispersal possibilities, a few large, widespread clades with many endemic species, and the large overlap in distributions displayed by different patterns, may explain the peculiar result. When applied to examples from other areas (bird data from Australia and South America), unrooted area networks for all data perform very poorly. Main conclusions Unrooted historical general area networks are not universally applicable. In general, it is better to split historical patterns a priori and analyse them separately.     

The voice of historical biogeography

Historical biogeography is going through an extraordinary revolution concerning its foundations, basic concepts, methods, and relationships to other disciplines of comparative biology. There are external and internal forces that are shaping the present of historical biogeography. The external forces are: global tectonics as the dominant paradigm in geosciences, cladistics as the basic language of comparative biology and the biologist's perception of biogeography. The internal forces are: the proliferation of competing articulations, recourse to philosophy and the debate over fundamentals. The importance of the geographical dimension of life's diversity to any understanding of the history of life on earth is emphasized. Three different kinds of processes that modify the geographical spatial arrangement of the organisms are identified: extinction, dispersal and vicariance. Reconstructing past biogeographic events can be done from three different perspectives: (1) the distribution of individual groups (taxon biogeography) (2) areas of endemism (area biogeography), and (3) biotas (spatial homology). There are at least nine basic historical biogeographic approaches: centre of origin and dispersal, panbiogeography, phylogenetic biogeography, cladistic biogeography, phylogeography, parsimony analysis of endemicity, event-based methods, ancestral areas, and experimental biogeography. These nine approaches contain at least 30 techniques (23 of them have been proposed in the last 14 years). The whole practice and philosophy of biogeography depend upon the development of a coherent and comprehensive conceptual framework for handling the distribution of organisms and events in space.     

Tree squirrels: A key to understand the historic biogeography of Mesoamerica?

A multi-taxon historical biogeography approach (Brooks Parsimony Analysis) was used to estimate relationships among the Mesoamerican lowland and highland areas and the particular biogeographic history of Mesoamerican squirrels (Sciurus, Microsciurus and Syntheosciurus species). A total of 15 lowland areas and 12 highland areas plus 41 clades comprising 240 species (45,135 records) were employed to obtain Taxon-Area Cladograms and Area Cladograms. A single most parsimonious General Area Cladogram indicated a strong vicariant relationship between Southern Mexico and the remainder of Mesoamerica, and identified several vicariant nodes (Modern Chiapanencan Volcanic Arc, Honduras’ Great Central Depression, and Nicaraguan Depression) as well as historically independent highland areas. A secondary BPA in relation with Sciurus species showed several instances of post speciation dispersal or range expansion, lack of response to vicariant events, and, possibly, lineage duplication. The results obtained suggest that Mesoamerican biotas have been subjected to several major vicariant events, but the reticulated nature of some of its areas also indicates that dispersal (post-speciation dispersal and range expansion) had been important in the diversification of the Mesoamerican biota. This trend was also observed in the particular biogeographic history of Mesoamerican tree squirrels.     

The effects of island ontogeny on species diversity and phylogeny

A major goal of island biogeography is to understand how island communities are assembled over time. However, we know little about the influence of variable area and ecological opportunity on island biotas over geological timescales. Islands have limited life spans, and it has been posited that insular diversity patterns should rise and fall with an island''s ontogeny. The potential of phylogenies to inform us of island ontogenetic stage remains unclear, as we lack a phylogenetic framework that focuses on islands rather than clades. Here, we present a parsimonious island-centric model that integrates phylogeny and ontogeny into island biogeography and can incorporate a negative feedback of diversity on species origination. This framework allows us to generate predictions about species richness and phylogenies on islands of different ages. We find that peak richness lags behind peak island area, and that endemic species age increases with island age on volcanic islands. When diversity negatively affects rates of immigration and cladogenesis, our model predicts speciation slowdowns on old islands. Importantly, we find that branching times of in situ radiations can be informative of an island''s ontogenetic stage. This novel framework provides a quantitative means of uncovering processes responsible for island biogeography patterns using phylogenies.     

Phylogenetic approaches in coevolution and biogeography

I review phylogenetic approaches to problems in coevolution and biogeography, illustrating with case studies. In coevolution, genealogical trees are essential in differentiating between ancient and recent associations, in identifying cospeciation events, and in studying host-switching patterns. Cospeciating associations are of particular interest because they allow powerful tests of molecular clocks and accurate comparison of evolutionary rates across groups of organisms. In biogeography, phylogenies can help reconstruct the distribution history of individual groups and identify past geological events that have affected the evolution of entire communities. Parsimony analysis in coevolution and biogeography should be based on identification of different types of events, each of which is associated with a specific cost. Similar event-based methods are applicable to coevolutionary and biogeographic inference, as well as in the mapping of gene trees onto organism trees. The discussed examples span a variety of organisms and spatiotemporal scales: primate pin worms, HIV, pocket gophers and their lice, aphids and their bacterial symbionts, gall wasps and their host plants, the root of the tree of life, the historical biogeography of the Holarctic, and the geographical origin of our own species.     

When simplicity is not parsimonious: a priori and a posteriori methods in historical biogeography

Despite using the same null hypothesis, a priori and a posteriori approaches in historical biogeography differ fundamentally. Methods such as Component Analysis (CA) and Reconciled Tree Analysis (RTA) may eliminate or modify input data in order to maximize fit to the null hypothesis, by invoking assumptions 1 and 2. Methods such as Brooks Parsimony Analysis (BPA) modify the null hypothesis, if necessary, to maintain the integrity of the input data, as required by assumption 0. Two exemplars illustrate critical empirical differences between CA/RTA and BPA: (1) CA rather than BPA may select the incorrect general area cladogram for a set of data (2) BPA, not RTA, provides the most parsimonious interpretation of all available data and (3) secondary BPA, proposed in 1990, applied to data sets for which dispersal producing areas with reticulate histories is most parsimonious, provides biologically realistic interpretations of area cladograms. These observations lead to the conclusion that BPA and CA/RTA are designed to implement different research programmes based on different conceptual frameworks. BPA is designed to assess the biogeographic context of speciation events, whereas CA/RTA are designed to find the best fitting pattern of relationships among areas based on the taxa that inhabit them. Unique distributional elements and reticulate (hybrid) histories of areas are essential for explaining complex histories of speciation. The conceptual framework for BPA, thus, assumes biogeographical complexity, relying on parsimony as an explanatory tool to summarize complex results, whereas CA/RTA assumes biogeographical simplicity, assuming conceptual parsimony a priori .     

Biogeographic area relationships of lowland Neotropical rainforest based on raw distributions of vertebrate groups

Hypotheses of the historic biogeography of Neotropical anurans inhabiting lowland forests were generated using Parsimony Analysis of Endemicity. In order to establish comparisons with the biogeographical patterns of other vertebrates, previous cladistic analyses reported in the literature (for lizards and primates) were extended and reanalysed to match the geographical scope of the anuran analysis. Cladistic analysis of the distribution of 335 anuran species at 14 localities showed two regions that form a basal dichotomy: (1) Central America + Choco and (2) Amazon Basin + Brazilian Atlantic Forest. This result is interpreted as the first vicariance event that separated lowland Neotropical rainforests into Cis-Andean (east from the Andes) and Trans-Andean (west from the Andes) areas. Within the Cis-Andean localities, the earliest separation occurred between the Amazon Basin and the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Within the Amazon Basin, three distinctive clusters are defined: (1) Belem, (2) Guianan Region, and (3) Upper Amazon Basin. Data sets on the distribution of anurans, lizards, and mammals have strong cladistic signal. Strong congruence exists among the area cladograms of anurans, lizards, and primates. All of them have, or at least did not conflict with: (1) a basal separation between Cis- and Trans-Andean regions, (2) a Central American clade, (3) the Choco Region is sister to the Central American clade, (4) an Amazon Basin clade, (5) an Upper Amazon Basin clade, and (6) a Guianan clade. The area cladograms are dichotomous and therefore do not support biogeographic theories that hypothesize simultaneous isolations of biotas in the Neotropics.     

New Guinea: A Correlation between Accreting Areas and Dispersing Sapindaceae

A correlation between accreting (hybridizing) areas and dispersing taxa (several genera of Southeast Asian/Australian Sapindaceae) is theoretically impossible in cladistic biogeography. However, in particular circumstances (primitive absence followed by colonization and speciation) cladistic methods can reconstruct (part of) the historical sequence of accretion. In this example, the phases in the accretion history of more than 30 terranes of the northern half of New Guinea correspond reasonably well with the generalized area cladogram of the Sapindaceae.     

On the Origin of Pantepui montane biotas: A Perspective Based on the Phylogeny of Aulacorhynchus toucanets

To understand the origin of Pantepui montane biotas, we studied the biogeography of toucanets in the genus Aulacorhynchus. These birds are ideal for analyzing historical relationships among Neotropical montane regions, given their geographic distribution from Mexico south to Bolivia, including northern Venezuela (Cordillera de la Costa), and the Pantepui. Analyses were based on molecular phylogenies using mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequences. Topology tests were applied to compare alternative hypotheses that may explain the current distribution of Aulacorhynchus toucanets, in the context of previous hypotheses of the origin of Pantepui montane biotas. Biogeographic reconstructions in RASP and Lagrange were used to estimate the ancestral area of the genus, and an analysis in BEAST was used to estimate a time framework for its diversification. A sister relationship between the Pantepui and Andes+Cordillera de la Costa was significantly more likely than topologies indicating other hypothesis for the origin of Pantepui populations. The Andes was inferred as the ancestral area for Aulacorhynchus, and the group has diversified since the late Miocene. The biogeographic patterns found herein, in which the Andes are the source for biotas of other regions, are consistent with those found for flowerpiercers and tanagers, and do not support the hypothesis of the geologically old Pantepui as a source of Neotropical montain diversity. Based on the high potential for cryptic speciation and isolation of Pantepui populations, we consider that phylogenetic studies of additional taxa are important from a conservation perspective.     

A species-based theory of insular zoogeography

• 1 I present an alternative to the equilibrium theory of island biogeography, one which is based on the premise that many of the more general patterns in insular community structure result from, not despite, nonrandom variation among species.
• 2 For the sake of simplicity, the model is limited to patterns and processes operating over scales of ecological space and time: evolution is not included in the current version of the model.
• 3 The model assumes, as did MacArthur and Wilson’s model, that insular community structure is dynamic in ecological time, but the model does not assume a balance, or equilibrium, of immigration and extinction.
• 4 The model presented here is hierarchical, phenomenological (it requires little parameterization beyond that which is directly derived from distributional data), graphical, and it includes potential feedback processes (including interspecific interactions).
• 5 The model offers an alternative explanation for a variety of patterns ranging from distributions of individual species, species–area and species–isolation relationships, to patterns of assembly of insular communities. The model also generates some new predictions and identifies some potentially important areas for future studies.

     

Phylogeographic evidence for the existence of an ancient biogeographic barrier: the Isthmus of Kra Seaway

Biogeographic boundaries are characterised by distinct faunal and floral assemblages restricted on either side, but patterns among groups of taxa often vary and may not be discrete. Historical biogeography as a consequence, while providing crucial insights into the relationship between biological diversity and earth history, has some limitations. Patterns of intraspecific molecular variation, however, may show unambiguous evidence for such historical divides, and can be used to test competing biogeographic hypotheses (often based on the dispersal-vicariance debate). Here, we utilise this method to test the hypothesis that a major biogeographic transition zone between the Sundaic and Indochinese biotas, located just north of the Isthmus of Kra in SE Asia, is the result of Neogene marine transgressions that breached the Isthmus in two locations for prolonged periods of time (>1 million year duration). Phylogeographic analyses of a freshwater decapod crustacean, the giant freshwater prawn Macrobrachium rosenbergii, strongly supports the historical existence of the more northerly postulated seaway. Results presented here highlight the power of utilising intraspecific molecular variation in testing biogeographical hypotheses.     

Biogeography of the Lizard Genus Tropidurus Wied-Neuwied, 1825 (Squamata: Tropiduridae): Distribution,Endemism, and Area Relationships in South America

Based on comprehensive distributional records of the 23 species currently assigned to the lizard genus Tropidurus, we investigated patterns of endemism and area relationships in South America. Two biogeographic methods were applied, Parsimony Analysis of Endemicity (PAE) and Brooks Parsimony Analysis (BPA). Two areas of endemism were detected by PAE: the first within the domains of the semiarid Brazilian Caatinga, which includes seven endemic species, and the second in the region of the Serranía de Huanchaca, eastern Bolivia, in which three endemic species are present. The area cladograms recovered a close relationship between the Atlantic Forest and areas of the South American open corridor. The results revealed a close relationship among the provinces Caatinga (Cerrado, Parana Forest (Pantanal+Chaco)). The uplift of the Brazilian Central Plateau in the Late Pliocene-Early Pleistocene (4-2 Myr BP) has been interpreted as a major event responsible for isolation and differentiation of biotas along these areas. However, we emphasize that without the establishment of a temporal framework concerning the diversification history of Tropidurus it is premature to correlate cladogenetic events with specific time periods or putative vicariant scenarios. The limiting factors hampering the understanding of the biogeographic history of this genus include (1) the absence of temporal references in relation to the diversification of distinct clades within Tropidurus; (2) the lack of an appropriate taxonomic resolution of the species complexes currently represented by widely distributed forms; and (3) the need for a comprehensive phylogenetic hypothesis. We suggest that these three important aspects should be prioritized in future investigations.     

The historical assembly of continental biotas: Late Quaternary range-shifting, areas of endemism, and bio-geographic structure in the North American mammal fauna

A controversial question in biogeography and ecology involves the extent to which vicariance and dispersal interact to determine the structure of continental biotic assemblages, Accumulating evidence of" distributional changes during the past 40 000 yr (Late Quaternary) has suggested to ecologists that changes in geographic ranges during the Pleistocene were of sufficient magnitude to erode prior associations between earth and biotic evolution in continental biotas. This paper first argues that this question can only he addressed by examining the magnitude of Late Quaternary range-shifting at the spatial scale established within the framework of historical historical geography (e.g., areas of endemism) rather than that of ecology (e.g., local community assemblages); and second reassesses patterns of range-shifting in the FAUNMAP data base recording Late Quaternary distributions of North American mammals. At the scale of geo-morphological provinces. North American rodents have exhibited highly stable distributions during this time frame, suggesting that previous inferences drawn from analyses of stability at a local community scale are not relevant to questions of congruence between earth and biotic history at regional or continental scales, A comprehensive understanding of processes underlying the assembly of continental biotas still requires incorporation of biogeographic patterns developed well before episodes of Late Quaternary climatic turbulence.     

Application of parsimony analysis of endemicity to Mexican gymnosperm distributions: grid-cells, biogeographical provinces and track analysis

Parsimony analysis of endemicity (PAE) was used to analyse the distributional patterns of 124 species of Mexican gymnosperms, using two different sample units: grid-cells and biogeographical provinces. PAE analyses were based on distributional data from herbarium specimens and specialized literature. Two data matrices were constructed for 60 grid-cells of 2° and 14 biogeographical provinces. The analysis of the 2° grid-cell matrix led to 7084 cladograms. The strict consensus cladogram showed several clades equivalent to the results obtained with the biogeographical provinces. Three clades agree with some principal regions of distribution of Mexican pines, previously identified by several authors, located at the northern portion of the Baja California peninsula, the Sierra Madre Occidental, and the Sierra Madre Oriental. These areas represent important centres of species diversity and endemism for Mexican gymnosperms. The analysis of the province matrix led to two most parsimonious cladograms, which only differed in the position of the Sierra Madre Occidental province. The iterative procedure PAE with progressive character elimination was applied to identify generalized tracks, where clades of provinces were considered equivalent to generalized tracks, and each time a cladogram was obtained, species defining its clades were deleted and a new run was undertaken. We found five generalized tracks, mainly located in montane provinces. The distribution patterns of gymnosperms agree with the existence of several Mexican biogeographical provinces, and a different historical biogeography of the Mexican peninsulas from the rest of the country is evident.  © 2007 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society , 2007, 92 , 405–417.     

Deep genealogies and the mid-peninsular seaway of Baja California

Geological forces and long-term climate changes can have profound effects on species. Such effects may be manifested in the pattern and magnitude of genealogical diversity, as revealed by mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) lineages. The relative importance of the different forces on a regional biota must be evaluated along with a good understanding of geological and climatological history. The peninsula of Baja California of north-western Mexico is one area where both geology and climate have affected the historical biogeography of the regional biota. Molecular studies based on the genealogical relationships among mtDNA lineages have contributed greatly towards elucidating the historical biogeography of Baja California. Perhaps most noticeably, numerous concordant breaks in mtDNA genealogies half-way along the peninsula suggest a vicariant history in which the mid-peninsula was temporarily submerged. This vicariant explanation has recently been criticized, as no conclusive geological evidence exists for a continuous submergence of the mid-peninsula. As an alternative, a scenario based on climatological factors has been suggested. Here we discuss the validity of the hypothesized mid-peninsular vicariance event and the climate-based alternative in explaining the concordant genealogical breaks. We argue that, despite the significant changes in climate brought about by the glacial cycles throughout the Quaternary, a vicariant history involving a mid-peninsular seaway remains the most parsimonious explanation of the observed patterns in mtDNA genealogies.     

Phylogenetic and biogeographic analysis of sphaerexochine trilobites

Background

Sphaerexochinae is a speciose and widely distributed group of cheirurid trilobites. Their temporal range extends from the earliest Ordovician through the Silurian, and they survived the end Ordovician mass extinction event (the second largest mass extinction in Earth history). Prior to this study, the individual evolutionary relationships within the group had yet to be determined utilizing rigorous phylogenetic methods. Understanding these evolutionary relationships is important for producing a stable classification of the group, and will be useful in elucidating the effects the end Ordovician mass extinction had on the evolutionary and biogeographic history of the group.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Cladistic parsimony analysis of cheirurid trilobites assigned to the subfamily Sphaerexochinae was conducted to evaluate phylogenetic patterns and produce a hypothesis of relationship for the group. This study utilized the program TNT, and the analysis included thirty-one taxa and thirty-nine characters. The results of this analysis were then used in a Lieberman-modified Brooks Parsimony Analysis to analyze biogeographic patterns during the Ordovician-Silurian.

Conclusions/Significance

The genus Sphaerexochus was found to be monophyletic, consisting of two smaller clades (one composed entirely of Ordovician species and another composed of Silurian and Ordovician species). By contrast, the genus Kawina was found to be paraphyletic. It is a basal grade that also contains taxa formerly assigned to Cydonocephalus. Phylogenetic patterns suggest Sphaerexochinae is a relatively distinctive trilobite clade because it appears to have been largely unaffected by the end Ordovician mass extinction. Finally, the biogeographic analysis yields two major conclusions about Sphaerexochus biogeography: Bohemia and Avalonia were close enough during the Silurian to exchange taxa; and during the Ordovician there was dispersal between Eastern Laurentia and the Yangtze block (South China) and between Eastern Laurentia and Avalonia.