Developing indicators for European birds

The global pledge to deliver 'a significant reduction in the current rate of biodiversity loss by 2010' is echoed in a number of regional and national level targets. There is broad consensus, however, that in the absence of conservation action, biodiversity will continue to be lost at a rate unprecedented in the recent era. Remarkably, we lack a basic system to measure progress towards these targets and, in particular, we lack standard measures of biodiversity and procedures to construct and assess summary statistics. Here, we develop a simple classification of biodiversity indicators to assist their development and clarify purpose. We use European birds, as example taxa, to show how robust indicators can be constructed and how they can be interpreted. We have developed statistical methods to calculate supranational, multi-species indices using population data from national annual breeding bird surveys in Europe. Skilled volunteers using standardized field methods undertake data collection where methods and survey designs differ slightly across countries. Survey plots tend to be widely distributed at a national level, covering many bird species and habitats with reasonable representation. National species' indices are calculated using log-linear regression, which allows for plot turnover. Supranational species' indices are constructed by combining the national species' indices weighted by national population sizes of each species. Supranational, multi-species indicators are calculated by averaging the resulting indices. We show that common farmland birds in Europe have declined steeply over the last two decades, whereas woodland birds have not. Evidence elsewhere shows that the main driver of farmland bird declines is increased agricultural intensification. We argue that the farmland bird indicator is a useful surrogate for trends in other elements of biodiversity in this habitat.     

The state of play of farmland birds: population trends and conservation status of lowland farmland birds in the United Kingdom

Many bird species of lowland farmland have declined substantially in the United Kingdom over the past 30 years. Declines among farmland specialists are steeper than for generalists and were most rapid for these specialists in the 1970s and 1980s. These changes have been linked to increased agricultural intensification and are reflected in Red or Amber conservation concern status for many common farmland species, as well as for rarer ones. We review long- and short-term population trends and the conservation status of lowland farmland birds in the UK using the latest available information from bird surveys, and examine patterns among species. Analyses of demographic parameters suggest broadly that the key factor driving population changes of seed-eating and migrant birds is overwinter survival, whereas for many non-passerine species population growth appears to be limited by productivity. Population trends for a suite of lowland farmland species were first combined in the UK Government's headline wild bird indicator published in 1998. This 'Skylark index' as it is sometimes known was intended to reflect the health of the wider countryside and struck a chord with the public and decision-makers. We look at the behaviour of the composite indicator and explore the population dynamics of the increasing and declining species separately. Simple models of population growth in these groups are then used to explore plausible scenarios for delivering the Government's Public Service Agreement target to reverse the long-term decline in the number of farmland birds by 2020.     

Wildlife-friendly farming benefits rare birds, bees and plants

Agricultural intensification is a leading cause of global biodiversity loss, especially for threatened and near-threatened species. One widely implemented response is 'wildlife-friendly farming', involving the close integration of conservation and extensive farming practices within agricultural landscapes. However, the putative benefits from this controversial policy are currently either unknown or thought unlikely to extend to rare and declining species. Here, we show that new, evidence-based approaches to habitat creation on intensively managed farmland in England can achieve large increases in plant, bee and bird species. In particular, we found that habitat enhancement methods designed to provide the requirements of sensitive target biota consistently increased the richness and abundance of both rare and common species, with 10-fold to greater than 100-fold more rare species per sample area than generalized conventional conservation measures. Furthermore, targeting landscapes of high species richness amplified beneficial effects on the least mobile taxa: plants and bees. Our results provide the first unequivocal support for a national wildlife-friendly farming policy and suggest that this approach should be implemented much more extensively to address global biodiversity loss. However, to be effective, these conservation measures must be evidence-based, and developed using sound knowledge of the ecological requirements of key species.     

Biotechnology for saving rare and threatened flora in a biodiversity hotspot

The Southwest Australian Floristic Region (SWAFR) is a plant biodiversity hotspot with a geographically isolated and predominantly endemic flora. Known threatening processes (i.e. excessive clearing of native vegetation, soil salinity, soil erosion and chronic weed infestation) combined with uncertain but potentially deleterious environmental (climate) changes pose great challenges for conservation and restoration efforts. With a paucity of nature reserves, in situ protection of species can be problematic. For many species, ex situ conservation becomes the only viable strategy for saving species from extinction via seed banking or living collections established through vegetative propagation, or tissue (in vitro) culture methods. Development of specific in vitro protocols is necessary to successfully initiate culture lines, with considerable development of nutrient media, plant growth regulator regimes and incubation conditions required to optimise shoot regeneration and multiplication, especially with woody species of the SWAFR. In addition, integration of root induction and acclimatization stages has allowed significant improvements in speed and success of plant production of both endangered and difficult-to-propagate woody species. We contend that there is also considerable potential for expansion of alternative in vitro technologies such as somatic embryogenesis for difficult taxa to complement existing ex situ conservation and restoration strategies in biodiversity hotspots such as SWAFR.     

A multi-scale approach for identifying conservation needs of two threatened sympatric steppe birds

Habitat selection is an inherently scale-sensitive process in which detected selection patterns frequently depend on the scale of analysis employed. We used a multi-scale modelling approach to identify how the distributions of two sympatric birds are shaped by differential selection at the landscape, land use and microhabitat scales and by human infrastructures as possible sources of disturbance. We studied two threatened steppe birds, the pin-tailed sandgrouse (PTS) and black-bellied sandgrouse (BBS) in central Spain. Land use gradients explained most of the variation in PTS and BBS occurrence, but there was cross-scale interdependence between the lower (microhabitat) and upper (landscape) spatial scales for the PTS. Synergies between the three scales highlighted the importance of integrating habitat scales in a single modelling framework. The process of habitat selection was also modulated by human disturbance. Both species selected ploughs of large size distant from houses, tracks and other infrastructures, although BBS exhibited broader habitat tolerance than the PTS, and was more sensitive to human disturbance. At microhabitat scale, PTS selected ploughs with greater green vegetation cover and insect abundance and fallows with lower dry vegetation cover and height but greater stone cover. This might reflect a trade-off between camouflage (vegetation and stone cover for concealment) and visibility for predator detection and escape. Ploughs and fallows should be maintained by means of traditional 2-year rotations and low management during the breeding season. Ongoing urbanization trends and infrastructure development inside protected areas should be limited. Multi-scale models were key to identify scale-specific factors that determine sandgrouse habitat preferences and conservation requirements at appropriate levels, and are recommended to better guide regional and local conservation efforts of threatened species.     

Presymptomatic testing for Huntington's disease in the United Kingdom. The United Kingdom Huntington's Disease Prediction Consortium.

OBJECTIVE--To evaluate the United Kingdom Huntington''s disease presymptomatic testing programme. DESIGN--Postal questionnaire survey to collect data on all tests performed by clinical genetics centres between 1987 and 1990. SETTING--Genetic centres providing presymptomatic testing in the United Kingdom. SUBJECTS--248 subjects at risk of Huntington''s disease who had presymptomatic testing at their request. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Sex, age, prior risk, and risk after testing. RESULTS--The risk of carrying the Huntington disease gene was reduced for 151 (61%) of the applicants and raised for 97 (39%). 158 (64%) of the subjects were female and 90 (36%) male. The median age at which the results were given was 32.5 years. CONCLUSIONS--The demand for testing was lower than expected and may have reached its peak in 1990. The excess of low risk results was not fully explained by the age effect. All the genetics centres concerned have agreed a common service protocol which requires extensive pre-test counselling and post-test follow up. The worth of the procedure remains to be decided. The availability of a large body of pooled data from all the United Kingdom testing centres, which individually are likely to have only a few results, will form a valuable resource for monitoring the long term psychosocial impact of testing.     

Necessity and reality of monitoring threatened European vascular plants

Species monitoring is the regular observation and recording of changes in status and trend of species in a certain territory. The primary purpose of monitoring is to collect information that can be used to examine the outcomes of management actions and to guide management decisions. Here, we analyze plant species monitoring to provide a first overview on efforts made to monitor trends in vascular plant biodiversity in Europe. Our study is based on an assessment of 63 plant monitoring schemes from Europe (collected into a database “DaEuMon”), and 33 schemes found with literature screening. Altogether, the monitoring schemes cover 354 vascular plant species, of which 69 are listed in Annex II of the EU Habitats Directive (= EU protected species; Annex II includes 420 species). In most cases, an EU protected plant species occurs in 3 countries but is monitored in only 1 country. Scientific interest was the main reason for launching a monitoring scheme in 21% of the schemes from the database, but in 58% of the schemes from the literature survey. The current schemes collect insufficient data particularly on the dynamics of the extent and distribution pattern of species. We conclude that planning to publish monitoring data when designing a scheme would improve the quality and general effect of monitoring programs. The needs to cover the taxonomic diversity and the integration of different scales, as well as the inclusion of monitoring in the context of different types of sustainable management would require a strong emphasis in the development of monitoring schemes.     

Organizational Downsizing and Depressive Symptoms in the European Recession: The Experience of Workers in France,Hungary, Sweden and the United Kingdom

Background

Organizational downsizing has become highly common during the global recession of the late 2000s with severe repercussions on employment. We examine whether the severity of the downsizing process is associated with a greater likelihood of depressive symptoms among displaced workers, internally redeployed workers and lay-off survivors.

Methods

A cross-sectional survey involving telephone interviews was carried out in France, Hungary, Sweden and the United Kingdom. The study analyzes data from 758 workers affected by medium- and large-scale downsizing, using multiple logistic regression.

Main Results

Both unemployment and surviving layoffs were significantly associated with depressive symptoms, as compared to reemployment, but the perceived procedural justice of a socially responsible downsizing process considerably mitigated the odds of symptoms. Perception of high versus low justice was assessed along several downsizing dimensions. In the overall sample, chances to have depressive symptoms were significantly reduced if respondents perceived the process as transparent and understandable, fair and unbiased, well planned and democratic; if they trusted the employer’s veracity and agreed with the necessity for downsizing. The burden of symptoms was significantly greater if the process was perceived to be chaotic. We further tested whether perceived justice differently affects the likelihood of depressive symptoms among distinct groups of workers. Findings were that the odds of symptoms largely followed the same patterns of effects across all groups of workers. Redeploying and supporting surplus employees through the career change process–rather than forcing them to become unemployed–makes a substantial difference as to whether they will suffer from depressive symptoms.

Conclusions

While depressive symptoms affect both unemployed and survivors, a just and socially responsible downsizing process is important for the emotional health of workers.     

Monitoring standards for molecular genetic testing in the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Ireland

Molecular genetic techniques have entered many areas of clinical practice. Public expectations from this technology are understandably high. To maintain confidence in this technology, laboratories must implement the highest standards of quality assurance (QA). External quality assessment (EQA) is recognized as an essential component of QA. The United Kingdom National External Quality Assessment Service (UKNEQAS) for Molecular Genetics, first set up in 1991, is currently the longest provider of EQA to molecular genetic testing laboratories in the UK, The Netherlands, and Ireland. Errors in the scheme are sporadic events. However, evidence from this and other EQA schemes suggests that a residual error rate persists, which should be taken into account in clinical practice. This EQA scheme has evolved from the respective scientific bodies of the constituent countries and retains a strong emphasis on collective peer review. It is essential that the steps taken to ensure quality in this rapidly expanding field are clear and transparent to participants and public alike. We describe the procedures developed and the governance imposed to monitor and improve analytical and reporting standards in participant laboratories and we compare our experiences with those of equivalent EQA services in the United States.     

Primary productivity and the prospects for biofuels in the United Kingdom

Estimates of land use and plant productivity are combined to predict total annual primary production in the UK as 252 million tonnes dry matter (10.5 t ha^?1yr^?1). Annual above ground production is predicted to be 165 Mt (6.9 t ha^?1yr^?1). Within these totals, intensive agriculture contributes 60%, productive woodland 8%, natural vegetation 26% and urban vegetation 5%. However, only 25% of total plant production is cropped by man and animals, and most of this is subsequently discarded as wastes and residues. 2112 PJ of organic material is available for fuel without reducing food or fibre production, but since much of this could not be economically collected, 859 PJ is calculated as a more realistic biofuel contribution by the year 2000. After deducting 50% conversion losses, this could save P1 billion (1979 prices) in oil imports. Short rotation energy plantations, forest residues, coppice woodlands, animal and crop wastes, industrial and domestic wastes, catch crops, natural vegetation and urban vegetation all have immediate or short term potential as biofuel sources. Sensitive planning is required to reduce environmental impact, but in some cases more diverse wildlife habitats may be created.     

Recruitment requirements of the rare and threatened Juncus atratus

The long-term persistence of populations and species depends on the successful recruitment of individuals. The generative recruitment of plants may be limited by a lack of suitable germination and establishment conditions. Establishment limitation may especially be caused by the competitive effect of surrounding dense vegetation, which is believed to restrict the recruitment success of many plant species to small open patches (‘safe sites’). We conducted experiments to clarify the roles of germination and seedling establishment as limiting processes in the recruitment of Juncus atratus Krock., a rare and threatened herbaceous perennial river corridor plant in Central Europe. Light intensity had a positive effect on germination. However, some seedlings emerged even in total darkness and the germination rate at 1% light intensity was more than half of that at 60% light intensity. Seedling establishment in the field after 10 weeks was 30% on bare ground, but it was close to zero in grassland. Establishment in the growth chamber after 8 weeks was close to 75% for seedlings that germinated underwater, but only about 35% for seedlings that germinated afloat. Furthermore, establishment decreased with flooding duration on bare ground, but increased with flooding duration in grassland. These data indicate that establishment, rather than germination, is a critical life stage in Central European populations of J. atratus. They furthermore indicate that the competition of surrounding vegetation for water limits seedling establishment under field conditions without flooding, largely restricting establishment success to bare ground habitats. In contrast, grassland is more suitable for the recruitment of J. atratus than bare ground under prolonged flooding. Grassland may facilitate the establishment of J. atratus seedlings during long-lasting floods by supplying oxygen to the soil through aerenchyma. The shift from competition to facilitation in grassland occurred after 30 days of flooding, i.e. within the ontogeny of individual plants. The specific recruitment requirements of J. atratus may be a main cause of its rarity in modern Central Europe. In order to prevent regional extinction of J. atratus, we suggest maintaining or re-establishing natural hydrodynamics in the species’ habitats.     

A 30-day-ahead forecast model for grass pollen in north London, United Kingdom

A 30-day-ahead forecast method has been developed for grass pollen in north London. The total period of the grass pollen season is covered by eight multiple regression models, each covering a 10-day period running consecutively from 21 May to 8 August. This means that three models were used for each 30-day forecast. The forecast models were produced using grass pollen and environmental data from 1961 to 1999 and tested on data from 2000 and 2002. Model accuracy was judged in two ways: the number of times the forecast model was able to successfully predict the severity (relative to the 1961–1999 dataset as a whole) of grass pollen counts in each of the eight forecast periods on a scale of 1 to 4; the number of times the forecast model was able to predict whether grass pollen counts were higher or lower than the mean. The models achieved 62.5% accuracy in both assessment years when predicting the relative severity of grass pollen counts on a scale of 1 to 4, which equates to six of the eight 10-day periods being forecast correctly. The models attained 87.5% and 100% accuracy in 2000 and 2002, respectively, when predicting whether grass pollen counts would be higher or lower than the mean. Attempting to predict pollen counts during distinct 10-day periods throughout the grass pollen season is a novel approach. The models also employed original methodology in the use of winter averages of the North Atlantic Oscillation to forecast 10-day means of allergenic pollen counts.