害虫种群尖角突变模型的优化脉冲控制

将具有突变性质的害虫种群模型转化为标准尖角突变模型.运用化学防治手段,建立相应的具有脉冲效应的治理模型.利用优化脉冲控制原理,得到了最佳防治时刻及相应的种群水平,最后通过数值模拟验证结论的正确性.     

黑颈鹤种群动态模型

本研究据已收集到的数据,用非参数统计方法确定了黑颈鹤种群的性比为1:1,避免了大量取样。根据黑颈鹤的特点,我们将其种群分成4个年龄组,并求出了各年龄组的存活率和繁殖率,据此建立了描述黑颈鹤种群动态的数学模型。用模型计算得出在乌蒙山区越冬的黑颈鹤种群的自然增长率为1.85‰;理想的种群结构为幼鹤、亚成鹤、成鹤、老鹤分别占总数的15.5％、21.5％、60.2％、2.8％,最后预测了乌蒙山黑颈鹤种群在1988～2000年越冬期的数量。1989年1月经实地调查该种群总数为310只,而预测值为303只,误差约2％。     

害虫种群动态的组合预测

单一的预测模型,由于丢弃了大量有用信息,因而影响预测效果。本文采用组合预测,不仅应用了一种新的统计预报方法;而且通过三化螟发生量预测实例,减少了预测误差,提高了准确度。     

数学判别模型在预测害虫种群动态上的应用

根据两个总体的Fisher判别准则,建立了预测害虫种群动态的数学判别模型,对山东省惠民县1967～1977年共11年二代棉铃虫发生程度的两类资料进行了数量分析,建立了数学模型：y＝0．0127x1－0．023X2,对历史资料的回代验证与独立样本的预测,符合率在90％以上。     

烟青虫种群动态模型的研究

在对烟青虫Ｈｅｌｉｃｏｖｅｒｐａａｓｓｕｌｔａ实验种群研究的基础上,应用变维矩阵综合差分方程,建立了烟青虫种群动态模拟模型,模型采用分块矩阵的方式,以实际日龄为步长,通过适当增加矩阵维数,对虫期（态）向量实行按矩阵维数的变化而伸缩的形式,使模型不但适合于变温条件,而且能够表示烟青虫个体发育的差异,该理论模型有待于地方化。     

昆虫种群动态模拟模型

昆虫是动物界中最大的类群,与人类有着密切的利害关系。对昆虫的数量预测与符合经济和生态规律的管理,一直都被国内外列入重点研究课题。种群动态模拟是害虫管理中重要的基础工作。近十年来,关于昆虫种群动态模型的理论和实验研究进展迅速。现分别从单种种群和多种种群两个方面对国内外近些年来昆虫种群动态模拟模型的研究进展进行了概括和总结。单种种群从两个方面阐述:一是最基本的种群动态模拟模型Log istic方程的研究成果,包括方程的修正、参数的拟合与最优捕获策略等;另一个方面是对种群动态模拟常用的矩阵模型的概述,主要介绍不等期年龄组、矩阵维数的变化、矩阵维数与历期的关系、个体之间的发育差异以及发育速率差异等等对昆虫种群动态模型的影响。多种群主要从建模和模型应用两个部分对国内外研究成果进行综述。最后,对种群动态模拟模型研究的发展方向做了深入地讨论,即在原有的数据采集工作的基础上,使用面向对象程序设计语言,把各种要素包括各种物种及各种环境条件抽象成类,用消息传递来表示昆虫种群内个体与个体、昆虫种群与环境之间的相互作用,再结合先进的数学算法,建立一个直观的、操作简单的昆虫种群动态模型库,使模型结构与现实世界有最大的相似性。这样就可以实现昆虫种群动态的可视化、立体化、实时化和精确化的监测及预测。     

用多级判别技术预测害虫种群动态

判别分析有基于Buyes准则和Fisher准则两种类型,它是多元统计分析中的一种方法,常常应用于气象的预测预报工作,在害虫预测预报领域中还很少见到这方面的报道。作者应用四川省营山县1971～1983年的虫情和气候资料[1],根据Buyes准则的多级判别原理,对第二代二化螟Chilosupressalis（Walker）发生量进行了分析,旨在为水稻孕期保护提供依据。1多级判别的基本原理1．1多级判别的基本思想[2]从已经掌握的历史上每个类别附体）的若干组数据（个体）出发,总结出分类的规律性（判别函数或判别方程或判别模型）。这样,对于新的个体,由巴总…     

高原鼢鼠种群历史动态研究

利用细胞色素b基因序列作为分子遗传标记,分析了高原鼢鼠Eospalax baileyi整个分布区及4个地理种群历史动态变化.结果显示,0.33～0.16百万年前(Ma),该物种有效种群大小出现最高值与最低值,种群剧烈波动;0.16～0.08 Ma,种群大小基本保持不变;0.08 Ma至今,基本呈现缓慢下降趋势.结果充分说明倒数第二次冰期造成了高原鼢鼠有效种群大小的急剧下降或波动,间冰期有利于该物种种群数量稳定水平的维持,而末次冰期仅仅限制了有效种群大小的增加,并未导致种群崩溃或灭绝.     

异质种群动态模型:破碎化景观动态模拟的新途径

景观破碎化导致物种以异质种群方式存活,使得基于异质种群动态模拟破碎化景观动态成为可能。异质种群动态模型的发展为景观动态模拟奠定了良好基础。根据空间处理方式的不同,异质种群模型可分为三大类,可不同程度地用于描述破碎化景观动态。(1)空间不确定异质种群模型,假定所有局域种群间均等互联,模型中不包含空间信息,仅能用于景观斑块动态描述;(2)空间确定异质种群模型,假设局域种群在二维空间上以规则格子形式排列,是一种准现实的空间处理方式,可用于景观动态的简单描述;(3)空间现实异质种群模型,包含了破碎化景观中局域种群的几何特征,可直接用于真实景观动态的模拟研究。空间现实的和基于个体的异质种群模型不但是未来异质种群模型发展的主流,也将成为未来破碎化景观动态研究的重要工具。为了更加准确完整地描述破碎化景观动态,不但应该综合运用已有的各种异质种群模型方法,更要引进新模型来刎画多物种、多变量、高维度、复杂连接的破碎化景观格局与过程。     

大足鼠种群动态的非线性模型及逐步回归分析

本文提出了一种从原始数据中获取关于种群动态机制的基本信息的,以非线性模型为基础的逐步回归逐步预测的种群动态分析法。并以作者１９８９－１９９１年间于四川邛崃定点进行示志重捕以及夹捕解剖所得的关于农田大足鼠种群生态学特征的数据为例,对大足鼠和种群密度与年龄组成,各年龄组性比、繁殖特征以及气象等因子的关系进行了初步的分析,定量地确定了当前的各生态因子对未来的大足鼠种群密度的作用,并对数量了初步的分析的讨     

An approach to the nonlinear dynamics of Russian wheat aphid population growth with the cusp catastrophe model

Many insect field populations, especially aphids, often exhibit irregular and even catastrophic fluctuations. The objective of the present study is to explore whether or not the population intrinsic rates of growth ( r _m) obtained under laboratory conditions can shed some light on the irregular changes of insect field populations. We propose to use the catastrophe theory, one of the earliest nonlinear dynamics theories, to answer the question. To collect the necessary data, we conducted a laboratory experiment to investigate population growth of the Russian wheat aphid (RWA), Diuraphis noxia (Mordvilko), in growth chambers. The experiment was designed as the factorial combinations of five temperatures and five host plant-growth stages (25 treatments in total): 1800 newly born RWA nymphs arranged in the 25 treatments (each treatment with 72 repetitions) were observed for their development, reproduction and survival through their entire lifetimes. After obtaining the population intrinsic rates of growth ( r _m) from the experimental data under various environmental conditions, we built a cusp catastrophe model for RWA population growth by utilizing r _m as the system state variable, and temperature and host plant-growth stage as control variables. The cusp catastrophe model suggests that RWA population growth is intrinsically catastrophic , and dramatic jumps from one state to another might occur even if the temperature and plant-growth stage change smoothly . Other basic behaviors of the cusp catastrophe model, such as catastrophic jumps , hystersis and divergence , are also expected in RWA populations. These results suggest that the answer to the previously proposed question should be "yes".     

基于椭圆脐点突变模型的大熊猫生存状态研究

得益于有力的保护,大熊猫受威胁等级由"濒危"降为"易危"。根据全国大熊猫调查数据,近年来,大熊猫野生种群与栖息地面积总体上均处于持续增加态势;同时,大熊猫栖息地破碎化与局域种群隔离也呈加剧的趋势。两相对比,形成悖论现象,难以正确认知当前大熊猫的生存状态。大熊猫作为高度特化的K对策大型动物,其生存高度依赖于栖息地生态系统,极易受栖息地丧失与破碎化的影响。对大熊猫生存状态的研究,不应局限于栖息地或种群等单项指标的变化,而应基于系统科学的整体视角。结合全国第三、四次大熊猫调查数据,对大熊猫野生种群数量与栖息地及潜在栖息地的面积进行复相关分析,发现大熊猫野生种群数量与栖息地、潜在栖息地的面积之间存在着高度显著正相关,表明三者之间存在着稳定而密切的耦合关系,进而建立了大熊猫种群与栖息地、潜在栖息地之间的耦合函数。突变理论作为一种成熟的系统科学理论,提供了较完备的数学方法,利用系统中少量的关键指标便可实现对系统行为的刻画。基于突变理论,以大熊猫分布区生态系统为研究对象,选取了大熊猫种群数量、栖息地与潜在栖息地的面积为系统关键指标,利用种群与栖息地、潜在栖息地之间的耦合函数,构建了"大熊猫—栖息地"系统椭圆脐点突变模型,对生态系统的稳定性进行研究。发现虽然野生种群数量、栖息地与潜在栖息地的面积均持续增长,但严峻的局域种群生存危机与栖息地的高度破碎化,从总体上削弱了系统的稳定性,大熊猫分布区生态系统的稳定性处于持续下降态势,且濒临系统临界状态,生态系统具有较大的退化压力,大熊猫的生存危机依然严峻。     

Microtubule dynamic instability: A new model with coupled GTP hydrolysis and multistep catastrophe

A key question in understanding microtubule dynamics is how GTP hydrolysis leads to catastrophe, the switch from slow growth to rapid shrinkage. We first provide a review of the experimental and modeling literature, and then present a new model of microtubule dynamics. We demonstrate that vectorial, random, and coupled hydrolysis mechanisms are not consistent with the dependence of catastrophe on tubulin concentration and show that, although single‐protofilament models can explain many features of dynamics, they do not describe catastrophe as a multistep process. Finally, we present a new combined (coupled plus random hydrolysis) multiple‐protofilament model that is a simple, analytically solvable generalization of a single‐protofilament model. This model accounts for the observed lifetimes of growing microtubules, the delay to catastrophe following dilution and describes catastrophe as a multistep process.     

柑桔锈螨种群动态研究

在桔柑园中设置观察区和防治区,对桔柑锈螨Phyllocoptruta oleivora Ashmead种群消长动态进行2周年（1999－2000年）观察。了解桔柑诱螨种群消长规律;年度间的种群变化;桔柑叶、果上锈螨群体动态差异;锈螨发生量与锈果率的关系等。提出药物防治的最适时期及方法。     

A population dynamic model of Batesian mimicry

A population dynamic model of Batesian mimicry, in which populations of both model and mimetic species were considered, was analyzed. The probability of a predator catching prey on each encouter was assumed to depend on the frequency of the mimic. The change in population size of each species was considered to have two components, growth at the intrinsic growth rate and carrying capacity, and reduction by predation. For simplicity in the analyses, three assumptions were made concerning the carrying capacities of each population: (1) with no density effects on the mimic population growth rate; (2) with no density effects on the model species; and (3) with density effects on both species. The first and second cases were solved analytically, whereas the last was, for the most part, investigated numerically. Under assumption (1), two stable equilibria are possible, in which both species either coexist or go to extinction. Under assumption (2), there are also two stable equilibria possible, in which either only the mimic persists or both go to extinction. These results explain the field records of butterflies (Pachliopta aristolochiae and its mimic Papilio polytes) in the Ryukyu Islands, Japan.     

Beyond the GTP-cap: Elucidating the molecular mechanisms of microtubule catastrophe

Almost 40 years since the discovery of microtubule dynamic instability, the molecular mechanisms underlying microtubule dynamics remain an area of intense research interest. The “standard model” of microtubule dynamics implicates a “cap” of GTP-bound tubulin dimers at the growing microtubule end as the main determinant of microtubule stability. Loss of the GTP-cap leads to microtubule “catastrophe,” a switch-like transition from microtubule growth to shrinkage. However, recent studies, using biochemical in vitro reconstitution, cryo-EM, and computational modeling approaches, challenge the simple GTP-cap model. Instead, a new perspective on the mechanisms of microtubule dynamics is emerging. In this view, highly dynamic transitions between different structural conformations of the growing microtubule end – which may or may not be directly linked to the nucleotide content at the microtubule end – ultimately drive microtubule catastrophe.     

南美斑潜蝇在温室蔬菜上种群动态的初步观察

系统观察结果表明,南美斑潜蝇Liriomyza huidobrensis(Blanchard)在平凉市日光温室蔬菜全生产期内的种群消长明显呈“两头高中间低”的态势,成虫发生量以春夏生产期最大,可达2.1头/叶;深冬生产期最小,仅为0.1~0.2头/叶;秋冬生产期较大,保持在1.0~1.2头/叶之间。温室内温、湿度条件的变化是引起该虫种群数量波动的主要原因。根据有效积温计算结果,该虫在平凉市日光温室蔬菜全生产期发生9.1代,世代平均发育速率0.030,不同生产期的发生代数和发育速率差异较大。生产上宜采取“前控后治中间松”的防治策略。     

Hybrid dynamics in a species group of swallowtail butterflies

Hybrid zones provide unique natural laboratories for studying mechanisms of evolution. But identification and classification of hybrid individuals (F1, F2, backcross, etc.) can be complicated by real population changes over time as well as by use of different marker types, both of which challenge documentation of hybrid dynamics. Here, we use multiple genetic markers (mitochondrial DNA, microsatellites and genomewide single nucleotide polymorphisms) to re‐examine population structure in a hybrid zone between two species of swallowtail butterflies in western Canada, Papilio machaon and P. zelicaon. Our aim was to test whether their hybrid dynamics remain the same as found 30 years ago using morphology and allozymes, and we compared different genetic data sets as well as alternative hybrid identification and classification methods. Overall, we found high differentiation between the two parental species, corroborating previous research from the 1980s. We identified fewer hybrid individuals in the main zone of hybridization in recent years, but this finding depended on the genetic markers considered. Comparison of methods with simulated data sets generated from our data showed that single nucleotide polymorphisms were more powerful than microsatellites for both hybrid identification and classification. Moreover, substantial variation among comparisons underlined the value of multiple markers and methods for documenting evolutionarily dynamic systems.     

A dynamic population model for tsetse (Diptera: Glossinidae) area-wide integrated pest management

A spatial model of tsetse (Glossina palpalis ssp. and G. pallidipes) life cycle was created in FORTRAN, and four control measures [aerial spraying of non-residual insecticides, traps and targets, insecticide-treated livestock (ITL) and the sterile insect technique] were programmed into the model to assess how much of each of various combinations of these control tactics would be necessary to eradicate the population. The model included density-independent and -dependent mortality rates, temperature-dependent mortality, an age-dependent mortality, two mechanisms of dispersal and a component of aggregation. Sensitivity analyses assessed the importance of various life history features and indicated that female fertility and factors affecting survivorship had the greatest impact on the equilibrium of the female population. The female equilibrium was likewise reduced when dispersal and aggregation were acting together. Sensitivity analyses showed that basic female survivorship, age-dependent and temperature-dependent survivorship of adults, teneral-specific survivorship, daily female fertility, and mean temperature had the greatest effect on the four applied control measures. Time to eradication was reduced by initial knockdown of the population and due to the synergism of certain combinations of methods [e.g., traps-targets and sterile insect technique (SIT); ITL and SIT]. Competitive ability of the sterile males was an important parameter when sterile to wild male overflooding ratios were small. An aggregated wild population reduced the efficiency of the SIT, but increased it with increased dispersal. The model can be used interactively to facilitate decision making during the planning and implementation of operational area-wide integrated pest management programs against tsetse.     

Dynamic energy budget theory and population ecology: lessons from Daphnia

Dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory offers a perspective on population ecology whose starting point is energy utilization by, and homeostasis within, individual organisms. It is natural to ask what it adds to the existing large body of individual-based ecological theory. We approach this question pragmatically--through detailed study of the individual physiology and population dynamics of the zooplankter Daphnia and its algal food. Standard DEB theory uses several state variables to characterize the state of an individual organism, thereby making the transition to population dynamics technically challenging, while ecologists demand maximally simple models that can be used in multi-scale modelling. We demonstrate that simpler representations of individual bioenergetics with a single state variable (size), and two life stages (juveniles and adults), contain sufficient detail on mass and energy budgets to yield good fits to data on growth, maturation and reproduction of individual Daphnia in response to food availability. The same simple representations of bioenergetics describe some features of Daphnia mortality, including enhanced mortality at low food that is not explicitly incorporated in the standard DEB model. Size-structured, population models incorporating this additional mortality component resolve some long-standing questions on stability and population cycles in Daphnia. We conclude that a bioenergetic model serving solely as a 'regression' connecting organismal performance to the history of its environment can rest on simpler representations than those of standard DEB. But there are associated costs with such pragmatism, notably loss of connection to theory describing interspecific variation in physiological rates. The latter is an important issue, as the type of detailed study reported here can only be performed for a handful of species.