Effect of farming practices for greenhouse gas mitigation and subsequent alternative land use on environmental impacts of beef cattle production systems

This study evaluated effects of farming practice scenarios aiming to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and subsequent alternative land use on environmental impacts of a beef cattle production system using the life cycle assessment approach. The baseline scenario includes a standard cow–calf herd with finishing heifers based on grazing, and a standard bull-fattening herd using a diet mainly based on maize silage, corresponding to current farm characteristics and management by beef farmers in France. Alternative scenarios were developed with changes in farming practices. Some scenarios modified grassland management (S1: decreasing mineral N fertiliser on permanent grassland; S2: decreasing grass losses during grazing) or herd management (S3: underfeeding of heifers in winter; S4: fattening female calves instead of being reared at a moderate growth rate; S5: increasing longevity of cows from 7 to 9 years; S6: advancing first calving age from 3 to 2 years). Other scenarios replaced protein sources (S7: partially replacing a protein supplement by lucerne hay for the cow–calf herd; S8: replacing soya bean meal with rapeseed meal for the fattening herd) or increased n-3 fatty acid content using extruded linseed (S9). The combination of compatible scenarios S1, S2, S5, S6 and S8 was also studied (S10). The impacts, such as climate change (CC, not including CO₂ emissions/sequestration of land use and land-use change, LULUC), CC/LULUC (including CO₂ emissions of LULUC), cumulative energy demand, eutrophication (EP), acidification and land occupation (LO) were expressed per kg of carcass mass and per ha of land occupied. Compared with the baseline, the most promising practice to reduce impacts per kg carcass mass was S10 (all reduced by 13% to 28%), followed by S6 (by 8% to 10%). For other scenarios, impact reduction did not exceed 5%, except for EP (up to 11%) and LO (up to 10%). Effects of changes in farming practices (the scenarios) on environmental impacts varied according to impact category and functional unit. For some scenarios (S2, S4, S6 and S10), permanent grassland area and LO per kg of carcass decreased by 12% to 23% and 9% to 19%, respectively. If the ‘excess’ permanent grassland was converted to fast-growing conifer forest to sequester carbon in tree and soil biomass, CC/LULUC per kg of carcass could be reduced by 20%, 25%, 27% and 48% for scenarios S2, S4, S6 and S10, respectively. These results illustrate the potential of farming practices and forest as an alternative land use to contribute to short- and mid-term GHG mitigation of beef cattle production systems.     

基于生命周期评价的上海市水稻生产的碳足迹

碳足迹是指由企业、组织或个人引起的碳排放的集合。参照PAS2050规范并结合生命周期评价方法对上海市水稻生产进行了碳足迹评估。结果表明:(1)目前上海市水稻生产的碳排放为11.8114 t CO2e/hm2,折合每吨水稻生产周期的碳足迹为1.2321 t CO2e;(2)稻田温室气体排放是水稻生产最主要的碳排放源,每吨水稻生产的总排放量为0.9507 t CO2e,占水稻生产全部碳排放的77.1%,其中甲烷(CH4)又是最主要的温室气体,对稻田温室气体碳排放的贡献率高达96.6%;(3)化学肥料的施用是第二大碳排放源,每吨水稻生产的总排放量为0.2044 t CO2e,占水稻生产总碳排放的16.5%,其中N最高,排放量为0.1159 t CO2e。因此,上海低碳水稻生产的关键在降低稻田甲烷的排放,另外可通过提高氮肥利用效率,减少氮肥施用等方法减少种植过程中碳排放。     

Carbon impacts of direct land use change in semiarid woodlands converted to biofuel plantations in India and Brazil

We present an analysis of direct land use change (dLUC) resulting from the conversion of semiarid woodlands in Brazil and India to Jatropha curcas, a perennial biofuel crop. The sites examined include prosopis woodlands, managed for woodfuel production under periodic coppicing, in southern India, and unmanaged caatinga woodlands in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais. The jatropha plantations under consideration include pruned and unpruned stands and ranged from 2 to 4 years of age. Stocks of carbon in aboveground (AG) pools, including woody biomass, coarse debris, leaf litter, and herbaceous matter, as well as soil organic carbon (SOC) were evaluated. The jatropha plantations store 8–10 tons of carbon per hectare (t C ha^?1) in AG biomass and litter when managed with regular pruning in both India and Brazil. Unpruned trees, only examined in Brazil, store less biomass (and carbon), accumulating just 3 t C ha^?1 in AG pools. The two woodlands that were replaced with jatropha show substantial differences in carbon pools: prosopis contains ～11 t C ha^?1 in AG stocks of carbon, which was very close to the jatropha stand which replaced it. In contrast, caatinga stores ～35 t C ha^?1 in AG biomass. Moreover, no change in SOC was detected in land that was converted from Prosopis to jatropha. As a result, there is no detectable change in AG carbon stocks at the sites in South India where jatropha replaced prosopis woodlands. In contrast, large losses of AG carbon were detected in Central Brazil where jatropha replaced native caatinga woodlands. These losses represent a carbon debt that would take 10–20 years to repay.     

Consensus,uncertainties and challenges for perennial bioenergy crops and land use

Perennial bioenergy crops have significant potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and contribute to climate change mitigation by substituting for fossil fuels; yet delivering significant GHG savings will require substantial land‐use change, globally. Over the last decade, research has delivered improved understanding of the environmental benefits and risks of this transition to perennial bioenergy crops, addressing concerns that the impacts of land conversion to perennial bioenergy crops could result in increased rather than decreased GHG emissions. For policymakers to assess the most cost‐effective and sustainable options for deployment and climate change mitigation, synthesis of these studies is needed to support evidence‐based decision making. In 2015, a workshop was convened with researchers, policymakers and industry/business representatives from the UK, EU and internationally. Outcomes from global research on bioenergy land‐use change were compared to identify areas of consensus, key uncertainties, and research priorities. Here, we discuss the strength of evidence for and against six consensus statements summarising the effects of land‐use change to perennial bioenergy crops on the cycling of carbon, nitrogen and water, in the context of the whole life‐cycle of bioenergy production. Our analysis suggests that the direct impacts of dedicated perennial bioenergy crops on soil carbon and nitrous oxide are increasingly well understood and are often consistent with significant life cycle GHG mitigation from bioenergy relative to conventional energy sources. We conclude that the GHG balance of perennial bioenergy crop cultivation will often be favourable, with maximum GHG savings achieved where crops are grown on soils with low carbon stocks and conservative nutrient application, accruing additional environmental benefits such as improved water quality. The analysis reported here demonstrates there is a mature and increasingly comprehensive evidence base on the environmental benefits and risks of bioenergy cultivation which can support the development of a sustainable bioenergy industry.     

Comparing global warming potential,energy use and land use of organic,conventional and integrated winter wheat production

To ensure a sustainable food supply for the growing population, the challenge is to find agricultural systems that can meet production requirements within environmental constraints and demands. This study compares the impacts of winter wheat production on energy use, land use and 100 years Global Warming Potential (GWP₁₀₀) under different arable farming systems and farming practices. Life cycle assessment was used to simulate the impacts of organic, conventional and integrated farming (IF) systems along the production chain from input production up to the farm gate. The IF system models were designed to combine the best practices from organic and conventional systems to reduce negative environmental impacts without significant yield reductions. An integrated system that used food waste digestate as a fertiliser, and utilised pesticides and no‐tillage had the lowest energy use and GWP per functional unit of 1000 kg wheat output. When the impacts of some specific practices for reducing energy use and GWP were compared, the highest energy use reductions were achieved by replacing synthetic nitrogen fertilisers with anaerobically treated food waste or nitrogen fixing crops, increasing yields through crop breeding and using no‐tillage instead of ploughing. The highest GWP reductions were achieved by using nitrification inhibitors, replacing synthetic nitrogen fertilisers and increasing yields. The major contributors to the uncertainty range of energy use were associated with machinery fuel use and the assumed crop yields. For GWP results, the main source of uncertainty related to the N₂O emissions. In conclusion, farming systems that combine the best practices from organic and conventional systems have potential to reduce negative environmental impacts while maintaining yield levels.     

Relative emissions intensity of dairy production systems: employing different functional units in life-cycle assessment

This study aimed to assess the merit and suitability of individual functional units (FU) in expressing greenhouse gas emissions intensity in different dairy production systems. An FU provides a clearly defined and measurable reference to which input and output data are normalised. This enables the results from life-cycle assessment (LCA) of different systems to be treated as functionally equivalent. Although the methodological framework of LCA has been standardised, selection of an appropriate FU remains ultimately at the discretion of the individual study. The aim of the present analysis was to examine the effect of different FU on the emissions intensities of different dairy production systems. Analysis was based on 7 years of data (2004 to 2010) from four Holstein-Friesian dairy systems at Scotland’s Rural College’s long-term genetic and management systems project, the Langhill herd. Implementation of LCA accounted for the environmental impacts of the whole-farm systems and their production of milk from ‘cradle to farm gate’. Emissions intensity was determined as kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalents referenced to six FU: UK livestock units, energy-corrected milk yield, total combined milk solids yield, on-farm land used for production, total combined on- and off-farm land used for production, and the proposed new FU–energy-corrected milk yield per hectare of total land used. Energy-corrected milk was the FU most effective for reflecting differences between the systems. Functional unit that incorporated a land-related aspect did not find difference between systems which were managed under the same forage regime, despite their comprising different genetic lines. Employing on-farm land as the FU favoured grazing systems. The proposed dual FU combining both productivity and land use did not differentiate between emissions intensity of systems as effectively as the productivity-based units. However, this dual unit displayed potential to quantify in a simple way the positive or negative outcome of trade-offs between land and production efficiencies, in which improvement in emissions intensity using one FU may be accompanied by deterioration using another FU. The perceived environmental efficiencies of different dairy production systems in terms of their emissions intensities were susceptible to change based upon the FU employed, and hence the FU used in any study needs to be taken into account in the interpretation of results.     

中国农作物生产碳足迹及其空间分布特征

基于中国1993—2013年的农业统计数据,采用生命周期评价、重心模型以及GIS等方法分析农作物生产碳排放及碳足迹的时序变化、碳足迹重心的移动轨迹、碳排放和碳足迹的空间分布特征以及影响碳排放的主导因素.结果表明: 研究期间,中国农作物生产碳排放量(GHGe)、单位播种面积碳足迹(CFs)和单位耕地面积碳足迹(CFc)均显著增加,而单位产量碳足迹(CFy)和单位产值碳足迹(CFv)显著减少.CFs重心一直分布在河南,且逐渐移向西南;CFc重心位于湖北或河南,并向西北方向移动;CFy重心位于陕西或河南,且整体移向东南;CFv重心始终在河南,并逐渐移向西南.GHGe和碳足迹存在显著的省域差异,GHGe具有南北低、中部高的特点,CFs是东西两翼高、中间低,CFc高值区主要集中在中部及东部沿海省份,CFy在西北-东南方向上表现为“高-低-高”,CFv在西北-东南方向上则是由高走低.农业生产过程中不同投入占农作物碳足迹的比例以化肥最为突出,化肥投入构成中以氮肥和复合肥所占比例较大.通过分析GHGe与各影响因素的关联度,得出化肥尤其是磷肥和氮肥、灌溉以及农田N₂O排放是导致GHGe显著增加的主导因素,并据此提出发展低碳农业的对策建议.     

Greenhouse gas emissions of the production chain behind consumption of products in Austria: Development and application of a product‐ and technology‐specific approach

Globalization has been one main driver affecting our whole economy. Thus, greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) associated with imports and exports should get addressed in addition to the national emission inventory according to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which is focused on territorial emissions only. To enable a correct calculation for imports and exports and to find the most emission‐intensive products and their origin, a product‐ and technology‐specific approach would be favorable which has not been applied up to now. This article addresses this research gap in developing and applying such an approach to calculate the GHGs behind consumption of products in Austria. It is based on physical flows combined with life‐cycle‐based emission factors and emission intensities derived from sector‐ and country‐specific energy mix, for calculating all emissions behind the production chain (resources to final products) of products consumed in Austria. The results have shown that consumption of products in Austria leads to about 60% more emissions than those of the national inventory and that the main part of these emissions comes from the provision of products. The most emission‐intensive products are coming from the chemical and the metal industry. In particular, imports are the main driver of these emissions and are more emission intensive than those produced in Austria. As a result, it is necessary to look at practical measures to reduce emissions along the production chain not only in Austria, but especially abroad as well.     

Environmental Damage Assessment of Carbon Capture and Storage

An end‐point life cycle impact assessment is used to evaluate the damages of electricity generation from fossil fuel‐based power plants with carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technology. Pulverized coal (PC), integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC), and natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plants are assessed for carbon dioxide (CO₂) capture, pipeline transport, and storage in a geological formation. Results show that the CCS systems reduce the climate change‐related damages but increase the damages from toxicity, acidification, eutrophication, and resource consumption. Based on the currently available damage calculation methods, it is concluded that the benefit of reducing damage from climate change is larger than the increases in other damage categories, such as health effects from particulates or toxic chemicals. CCS significantly reduces the overall environmental damage, with a net reduction of 60% to 70% in human health damage and 65% to 75% in ecosystem damage. Most of the damage is due to fuel production and combustion processes. The energy and infrastructure demands of CCS cause increases in the depletion of natural resources by 33% for PC, 19% for IGCC, and 18% for NGCC power plants, mostly due to increased fossil fuel consumption.     

Sources of variability in greenhouse gas and energy balances for biofuel production: a systematic review

Across the energy sector, alternatives to fossil fuels are being developed, in response to the dual drivers of climate change and energy security. For transport, biofuels have the greatest potential to replace fossil fuels in the short‐to medium term. However, the ecological benefits of biofuels and the role that their deployment can play in mitigating climate change are being called into question. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a widely used approach that enables the energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) balance of biofuel production to be calculated. Concerns have nevertheless been raised that published data show widely varying and sometimes contradictory results. This review describes a systematic review of GHG emissions and energy balance data from 44 LCA studies of first‐ and second‐generation biofuels. The information collated was used to identify the dominant sources of GHG emissions and energy requirements in biofuel production and the key sources of variability in published LCA data. Our analysis revealed three distinct sources of variation: (1) ‘real’ variability in parameters e.g. cultivation; (2) ‘methodological’ variability due to the implementation of the LCA method; and (3) ‘uncertainty’ due to parameters rarely included and poorly quantified. There is global interest in developing a sustainability assessment protocol for biofuels. Confidence in the results of such an assessment can only be assured if these areas of uncertainty and variability are addressed. A more defined methodology is necessary in order to allow effective and accurate comparison of results. It is also essential that areas of uncertainty such as impacts on soil carbon stocks and fluxes are included in LCA assessments, and that further research is conducted to enable a robust calculation of impacts under different land‐use change scenarios. Without the inclusion of these parameters, we cannot be certain that biofuels are really delivering GHG savings compared with fossil fuels.     

Gross changes in reconstructions of historic land cover/use for Europe between 1900 and 2010

Historic land‐cover/use change is important for studies on climate change, soil carbon, and biodiversity assessments. Available reconstructions focus on the net area difference between two time steps (net changes) instead of accounting for all area gains and losses (gross changes). This leads to a serious underestimation of land‐cover/use dynamics with impacts on the biogeochemical and environmental assessments based on these reconstructions. In this study, we quantified to what extent land‐cover/use reconstructions underestimate land‐cover/use changes in Europe for the 1900–2010 period by accounting for net changes only. We empirically analyzed available historic land‐change data, quantified their uncertainty, corrected for spatial‐temporal effects and identified underlying processes causing differences between gross and net changes. Gross changes varied for different land classes (largest for forest and grassland) and led to two to four times the amount of net changes. We applied the empirical results of gross change quantities in a spatially explicit reconstruction of historic land change to reconstruct gross changes for the EU27 plus Switzerland at 1 km spatial resolution between 1950 and 2010. In addition, the reconstruction was extended back to 1900 to explore the effects of accounting for gross changes on longer time scales. We created a land‐change reconstruction that only accounted for net changes for comparison. Our two model outputs were compared with five commonly used global reconstructions for the same period and area. In our reconstruction, gross changes led in total to a 56% area change (ca. 0.5% yr^?1) between 1900 and 2010 and cover twice the area of net changes. All global reconstructions used for comparison estimated fewer changes than our gross change reconstruction. Main land‐change processes were cropland/grassland dynamics and afforestation, and also deforestation and urbanization.     

The Carbon Footprint of Norwegian Seafood Products on the Global Seafood Market

Greenhouse gas emissions caused by food production are receiving increased attention worldwide. A problem with many studies is that they only consider one product; methodological differences also make it difficult to compare results across studies. Using a consistent methodology to ensure comparability, we quantified the carbon footprint of more than 20 Norwegian seafood products, including fresh and frozen, processed and unprocessed cod, haddock, saithe, herring, mackerel, farmed salmon, and farmed blue mussels. The previous finding that fuel use in fishing and feed production in aquaculture are key inputs was confirmed. Additional key aspects identified were refrigerants used on fishing vessels, product yield, and by‐product use. Results also include that product form (fresh or frozen) only matters when freezing makes slower transportation possible. Processing before export was favorable due to the greater potential to use by‐products and the reduced need for transportation. The most efficient seafood product was herring shipped frozen in bulk to Moscow at 0.7 kilograms CO₂ equivalents per kilogram (kg CO₂‐eq/kg) edible product. At the other end we found fresh gutted salmon airfreighted to Tokyo at 14 kg CO₂‐eq/kg edible product. This wide range points to major differences between seafood products and room for considerable improvement within supply chains and in product choices. In fisheries, we found considerable variability between fishing methods used to land the same species, which indicates the importance of fisheries management favoring the most resource‐efficient ways of fishing. Both production and consumption patterns matter, and a range of improvements could benefit the carbon performance of Norwegian seafood products.     

GHG emissions and other environmental impacts of indirect land use change mitigation

The implementation of measures to increase productivity and resource efficiency in food and bioenergy chains as well as to more sustainably manage land use can significantly increase the biofuel production potential while limiting the risk of causing indirect land use change (ILUC). However, the application of these measures may influence the greenhouse gas (GHG) balance and other environmental impacts of agricultural and biofuel production. This study applies a novel, integrated approach to assess the environmental impacts of agricultural and biofuel production for three ILUC mitigation scenarios, representing a low, medium and high miscanthus‐based ethanol production potential, and for three agricultural intensification pathways in terms of sustainability in Lublin province in 2020. Generally, the ILUC mitigation scenarios attain lower net annual emissions compared to a baseline scenario that excludes ILUC mitigation and bioethanol production. However, the reduction potential significantly depends on the intensification pathway considered. For example, in the moderate ILUC mitigation scenario, the net annual GHG emissions in the case study are 2.3 MtCO₂‐eq yr^?1 (1.8 tCO₂‐eq ha^?1 yr^?1) for conventional intensification and ?0.8 MtCO₂‐eq yr^?1 (?0.6 tCO₂‐eq ha^?1 yr^?1) for sustainable intensification, compared to 3.0 MtCO₂‐eq yr^?1 (2.3 tCO₂‐eq ha^?1 yr^?1) in the baseline scenario. In addition, the intensification pathway is found to be more influential for the GHG balance than the ILUC mitigation scenario, indicating the importance of how agricultural intensification is implemented in practice. Furthermore, when the net emissions are included in the assessment of GHG emissions from bioenergy, the ILUC mitigation scenarios often abate GHG emissions compared to gasoline. But sustainable intensification is required to attain GHG abatement potentials of 90% or higher. A qualitative assessment of the impacts on biodiversity, water quantity and quality, soil quality and air quality also emphasizes the importance of sustainable intensification.     

Uncertainty and Variability in Product Carbon Footprinting

Recent years have seen increasing interest in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions accounting, also known as carbon footprinting, due to drivers such as transportation fuels policy and climate‐related eco‐labels, sometimes called carbon labels. However, it remains unclear whether applications of greenhouse gas accounting, such as carbon labels, are supportable given the level of precision that is possible with current methodology and data. The goal of this work is to further the understanding of quantitative uncertainty assessment in carbon footprinting through a case study of a rackmount electronic server. Production phase uncertainty was found to be moderate (±15%), though with a high likelihood of being significantly underestimated given the limitations in available data for assessing uncertainty associated with temporal variability and technological specificity. Individual components or subassemblies showed varying levels of uncertainty due to differences in parameter uncertainty (i.e., agreement between data sets) and variability between production or use regions. The use phase displayed a considerably higher uncertainty (±50%) than production due to uncertainty in the useful lifetime of the server, variability in electricity mixes in different market regions, and use profile uncertainty. Overall model uncertainty was found to be ±35% for the whole life cycle, a substantial amount given that the method is already being used to set policy and make comparative environmental product declarations. Future work should continue to combine the increasing volume of available data to ensure consistency and maximize the credibility of the methods of life cycle assessment (LCA) and carbon footprinting. However, for some energy‐using products it may make more sense to increase focus on energy efficiency and use phase emissions reductions rather than attempting to quantify and reduce the uncertainty of the relatively small production phase.     

Lithium-ion battery cell production in Europe: Scenarios for reducing energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions until 2030

The market for electric vehicles is growing rapidly, and there is a large demand for lithium-ion batteries (LIB). Studies have predicted a growth of 600% in LIB demand by 2030. However, the production of LIBs is energy intensive, thus contradicting the goal set by Europe to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and become GHG emission free by 2040. Therefore, in this study, it was analyzed how the energy consumption and corresponding GHG emissions from LIB cell production may develop until 2030. Economic, technological, and political measures were considered and applied to market forecasts and to a model of a state-of-the art LIB cell factory. Notably, different scenarios with trend assumptions and above/below-trend assumptions were considered. It could be deduced that, if no measures are taken and if the status quo is extrapolated to the future, by 2030, ∼5.86 Mt CO₂-eq will be emitted due to energy consumption from European LIB cell production. However, by applying a combination of economic, technological, and political measures, energy consumption and GHG emissions could be decreased by 46% and 56% by 2030, respectively. Furthermore, it was found that political measures, such as improving the electricity mix, are important but less dominant than improving the production technology and infrastructure. In this study, it could be deduced that, by 2030, through industrialization and application of novel production technologies, the energy consumption and GHG emissions from LIB cell production in Europe can be reduced by 24%.     

Quantifying global greenhouse gas emissions from land‐use change for crop production

Many assessments of product carbon footprint (PCF) for agricultural products omit emissions arising from land‐use change (LUC). In this study, we developed a framework based on IPCC national greenhouse gas inventory methodologies to assess the impacts of LUC from crop production using oil palm, soybean and oilseed rape as examples. Using ecological zone, climate and soil types from the top 20 producing countries, calculated emissions for transitions from natural vegetation to cropland on mineral soils under typical management ranged from ?4.5 to 29.4 t CO₂‐eq ha^?1 yr^?1 over 20 years for oil palm and 1.2–47.5 t CO₂‐eq ha^?1 yr^?1 over 20 years for soybeans. Oilseed rape showed similar results to soybeans, but with lower maximum values because it is mainly grown in areas with lower C stocks. GHG emissions from other land‐use transitions were between 62% and 95% lower than those from natural vegetation for the arable crops, while conversions to oil palm were a sink for C. LUC emissions were considered on a national basis and also expressed per‐tonne‐of‐oil‐produced. Weighted global averages indicate that, depending on the land‐use transition, oil crop production on newly converted land contributes between ?3.1 and 7.0 t CO₂‐eq t oil production^?1 yr^?1 for palm oil, 11.9–50.6 t CO₂‐eq t oil production^?1 yr^?1 for soybean oil, and 7.7–31.4 t CO₂‐eq t oil production^?1 yr^?1 for rapeseed oil. Assumptions made about crop and LUC distribution within countries contributed up to 66% error around the global averages for natural vegetation conversions. Uncertainty around biomass and soil C stocks were also examined. Finer resolution data and information (particularly on land management and yield) could improve reliability of the estimates but the framework can be used in all global regions and represents an important step forward for including LUC emissions in PCFs.     

Uncertainty in estimating land use and management impacts on soil organic carbon storage for US agricultural lands between 1982 and 1997

Uncertainty was quantified for an inventory estimating change in soil organic carbon (SOC) storage resulting from modifications in land use and management across US agricultural lands between 1982 and 1997. This inventory was conducted using a modified version of a carbon (C) accounting method developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Probability density functions (PDFs) were derived for each input to the IPCC model, including reference SOC stocks, land use/management activity data, and management factors. Change in C storage was estimated using a Monte‐Carlo approach with 50 000 iterations, by randomly selecting values from the PDFs after accounting for dependencies in the model inputs. Over the inventory period, mineral soils had a net gain of 10.8 Tg C yr^?1, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 6.5 to 15.3 Tg C yr^?1. Most of this gain was due to setting‐aside lands in the Conservation Reserve Program. In contrast, managed organic soils lost 9.4 Tg C yr^?1, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 6.4 to 13.3 Tg C yr^?1. Combining these gains and losses in SOC, US agricultural soils accrued 1.3 Tg C yr^?1 due to land use and management change, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from a loss of 4.4 Tg C yr^?1 to a gain of 6.9 Tg C yr^?1. Most of the uncertainty was attributed to management factors for tillage, land use change between cultivated and uncultivated conditions, and C loss rates from managed organic soils. Based on the uncertainty, we are not able to conclude with 95% confidence that change in US agricultural land use and management between 1982 and 1997 created a net C sink for atmospheric CO₂.     

Decoupling of greenhouse gas emissions from global agricultural production: 1970–2050

Since 1970 global agricultural production has more than doubled; contributing ~1/4 of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) burden in 2010. Food production must increase to feed our growing demands, but to address climate change, GHG emissions must decrease. Using an identity approach, we estimate and analyse past trends in GHG emission intensities from global agricultural production and land‐use change and project potential future emissions. The novel Kaya–Porter identity framework deconstructs the entity of emissions from a mix of multiple sources of GHGs into attributable elements allowing not only a combined analysis of the total level of all emissions jointly with emissions per unit area and emissions per unit product. It also allows us to examine how a change in emissions from a given source contributes to the change in total emissions over time. We show that agricultural production and GHGs have been steadily decoupled over recent decades. Emissions peaked in 1991 at ~12 Pg CO₂‐eq. yr^?1 and have not exceeded this since. Since 1970 GHG emissions per unit product have declined by 39% and 44% for crop‐ and livestock‐production, respectively. Except for the energy‐use component of farming, emissions from all sources have increased less than agricultural production. Our projected business‐as‐usual range suggests that emissions may be further decoupled by 20–55% giving absolute agricultural emissions of 8.2–14.5 Pg CO₂‐eq. yr^?1 by 2050, significantly lower than many previous estimates that do not allow for decoupling. Beyond this, several additional costcompetitive mitigation measures could reduce emissions further. However, agricultural GHG emissions can only be reduced to a certain level and a simultaneous focus on other parts of the food‐system is necessary to increase food security whilst reducing emissions. The identity approach presented here could be used as a methodological framework for more holistic food systems analysis.     

Bioenergy crop productivity and potential climate change mitigation from marginal lands in the United States: An ecosystem modeling perspective

Growing biomass feedstocks from marginal lands is becoming an increasingly attractive choice for producing biofuel as an alternative energy to fossil fuels. Here, we used a biogeochemical model at ecosystem scale to estimate crop productivity and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from bioenergy crops grown on marginal lands in the United States. Two broadly tested cellulosic crops, switchgrass, and Miscanthus, were assumed to be grown on the abandoned land and mixed crop‐vegetation land with marginal productivity. Production of biomass and biofuel as well as net carbon exchange and nitrous oxide emissions were estimated in a spatially explicit manner. We found that, cellulosic crops, especially Miscanthus could produce a considerable amount of biomass, and the effective ethanol yield is high on these marginal lands. For every hectare of marginal land, switchgrass and Miscanthus could produce 1.0–2.3 kl and 2.9–6.9 kl ethanol, respectively, depending on nitrogen fertilization rate and biofuel conversion efficiency. Nationally, both crop systems act as net GHG sources. Switchgrass has high global warming intensity (100–390 g CO₂eq l^?1 ethanol), in terms of GHG emissions per unit ethanol produced. Miscanthus, however, emits only 21–36 g CO₂eq to produce every liter of ethanol. To reach the mandated cellulosic ethanol target in the United States, growing Miscanthus on the marginal lands could potentially save land and reduce GHG emissions in comparison to growing switchgrass. However, the ecosystem modeling is still limited by data availability and model deficiencies, further efforts should be made to classify crop‐specific marginal land availability, improve model structure, and better integrate ecosystem modeling into life cycle assessment.     

The consequences of uncertainties in land use, climate and vegetation responses on the terrestrial carbon

The IPCC SRES narratives were implemented in IMAGE 2.2 to evaluate thefuture condition of the climate system (including the biosphere). A series of scenario experiments was used to assess possible ranges in emissions and concentrations of greenhouse gases, climate change and impacts. These experiments focussed on the role of the terrestrial carbon cycle. The experiments show that the SRES narratives dominate human emissions and not natural processes. In contrary, atmospheric CO2 concentration strongly differs between the experiments. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations range for A1B from 714 to 1009 ppmv CO2 in 2100. The spread of this range is comparable with the full SRES range as implemented in IMAGE 2.2 (515-895 μmol/mol CO2). The most important negative and positive feedback processes in IMAGE 2.2 on the build-up of CO2 concentrations are CO2 fertilisation and soil respiration respectively. Indirect effects of these processes furtherchange land-use patterns, deforestation rates and alter the natural C fluxes. The cumulative effects of these changes have a pronounced influence on the final CO2 concentrations. Our scenario experiments highlight the importance of a proper parameterisation of feedback processes, C-cycle and land use in determining the future states of the climate system.