Human Collective Intelligence under Dual Exploration-Exploitation Dilemmas

The exploration-exploitation dilemma is a recurrent adaptive problem for humans as well as non-human animals. Given a fixed time/energy budget, every individual faces a fundamental trade-off between exploring for better resources and exploiting known resources to optimize overall performance under uncertainty. Colonies of eusocial insects are known to solve this dilemma successfully via evolved coordination mechanisms that function at the collective level. For humans and other non-eusocial species, however, this dilemma operates within individuals as well as between individuals, because group members may be motivated to take excessive advantage of others'' exploratory findings through social learning. Thus, even though social learning can reduce collective exploration costs, the emergence of disproportionate “information scroungers” may severely undermine its potential benefits. We investigated experimentally whether social learning opportunities might improve the performance of human participants working on a “multi-armed bandit” problem in groups, where they could learn about each other''s past choice behaviors. Results showed that, even though information scroungers emerged frequently in groups, social learning opportunities reduced total group exploration time while increasing harvesting from better options, and consequentially improved collective performance. Surprisingly, enriching social information by allowing participants to observe others'' evaluations of chosen options (e.g., Amazon''s 5-star rating system) in addition to choice-frequency information had a detrimental impact on performance compared to the simpler situation with only the choice-frequency information. These results indicate that humans groups can handle the fundamental “dual exploration-exploitation dilemmas” successfully, and that social learning about simple choice-frequencies can help produce collective intelligence.     

Research of a holiday kind: A clinical trial gone awry: the Chocolate Happiness Undergoing More Pleasantness (CHUMP) study

The randomized controlled trial is the “gold standard” for evaluating the benefits and harms of interventions. The Chocolate Happiness Undergoing More Pleasantness (CHUMP) study was designed to compare the effects of dark chocolate, milk chocolate and normal chocolate consumption on happiness. Although the intention-to-treat analysis showed that participants who received either dark or milk chocolate were happier than those who received no additional chocolate, the actual-consumption analysis showed that there were no differences between any of the groups. The reason for this result is that many participants switched groups mid-study because of their personal chocolate preferences. Although the CHUMP study was pleasurable, it demonstrated the difficulties associated with performing a truly blinded clinical trial.The randomized controlled trial is the “gold standard” for testing the beneficial and harmful effects of interventions. There has been a growing concern in the literature about the potential for bias during randomization of participants in clinical trials.^1–5 I designed the Chocolate Happiness Undergoing More Pleasantness (CHUMP) study to compare the effects of dark chocolate, milk chocolate and “normal” chocolate consumption on happiness. The CHUMP study was a double-blinded clinical trial, and it demonstrated the difficulties associated with performing a truly blinded clinical trial.     

Structural Basis for Ligand Regulation of the Fatty Acid-binding Protein 5, Peroxisome Proliferator-activated Receptor β/δ (FABP5-PPARβ/δ) Signaling Pathway

Fatty acid-binding proteins (FABPs) are a widely expressed group of calycins that play a well established role in solubilizing cellular fatty acids. Recent studies, however, have recast FABPs as active participants in vital lipid-signaling pathways. FABP5, like its family members, displays a promiscuous ligand binding profile, capable of interacting with numerous long chain fatty acids of varying degrees of saturation. Certain “activating” fatty acids induce the protein''s cytoplasmic to nuclear translocation, stimulating PPARβ/δ transactivation; however, the rules that govern this process remain unknown. Using a range of structural and biochemical techniques, we show that both linoleic and arachidonic acid elicit FABP5''s translocation by permitting allosteric communication between the ligand-sensing β2 loop and a tertiary nuclear localization signal within the α-helical cap of the protein. Furthermore, we show that more saturated, nonactivating fatty acids inhibit nuclear localization signal formation by destabilizing this activation loop, thus implicating FABP5 specifically in cis-bonded, polyunsaturated fatty acid signaling.     

People Efficiently Explore the Solution Space of the Computationally Intractable Traveling Salesman Problem to Find Near-Optimal Tours

Humans need to solve computationally intractable problems such as visual search, categorization, and simultaneous learning and acting, yet an increasing body of evidence suggests that their solutions to instantiations of these problems are near optimal. Computational complexity advances an explanation to this apparent paradox: (1) only a small portion of instances of such problems are actually hard, and (2) successful heuristics exploit structural properties of the typical instance to selectively improve parts that are likely to be sub-optimal. We hypothesize that these two ideas largely account for the good performance of humans on computationally hard problems. We tested part of this hypothesis by studying the solutions of 28 participants to 28 instances of the Euclidean Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP). Participants were provided feedback on the cost of their solutions and were allowed unlimited solution attempts (trials). We found a significant improvement between the first and last trials and that solutions are significantly different from random tours that follow the convex hull and do not have self-crossings. More importantly, we found that participants modified their current better solutions in such a way that edges belonging to the optimal solution (“good” edges) were significantly more likely to stay than other edges (“bad” edges), a hallmark of structural exploitation. We found, however, that more trials harmed the participants'' ability to tell good from bad edges, suggesting that after too many trials the participants “ran out of ideas.” In sum, we provide the first demonstration of significant performance improvement on the TSP under repetition and feedback and evidence that human problem-solving may exploit the structure of hard problems paralleling behavior of state-of-the-art heuristics.     

Proprioceptive Feedback and Brain Computer Interface (BCI) Based Neuroprostheses

Brain computer interface (BCI) technology has been proposed for motor neurorehabilitation, motor replacement and assistive technologies. It is an open question whether proprioceptive feedback affects the regulation of brain oscillations and therefore BCI control. We developed a BCI coupled on-line with a robotic hand exoskeleton for flexing and extending the fingers. 24 healthy participants performed five different tasks of closing and opening the hand: (1) motor imagery of the hand movement without any overt movement and without feedback, (2) motor imagery with movement as online feedback (participants see and feel their hand, with the exoskeleton moving according to their brain signals, (3) passive (the orthosis passively opens and closes the hand without imagery) and (4) active (overt) movement of the hand and rest. Performance was defined as the difference in power of the sensorimotor rhythm during motor task and rest and calculated offline for different tasks. Participants were divided in three groups depending on the feedback receiving during task 2 (the other tasks were the same for all participants). Group 1 (n = 9) received contingent positive feedback (participants'' sensorimotor rhythm (SMR) desynchronization was directly linked to hand orthosis movements), group 2 (n = 8) contingent “negative” feedback (participants'' sensorimotor rhythm synchronization was directly linked to hand orthosis movements) and group 3 (n = 7) sham feedback (no link between brain oscillations and orthosis movements). We observed that proprioceptive feedback (feeling and seeing hand movements) improved BCI performance significantly. Furthermore, in the contingent positive group only a significant motor learning effect was observed enhancing SMR desynchronization during motor imagery without feedback in time. Furthermore, we observed a significantly stronger SMR desynchronization in the contingent positive group compared to the other groups during active and passive movements. To summarize, we demonstrated that the use of contingent positive proprioceptive feedback BCI enhanced SMR desynchronization during motor tasks.     

Reading the Mind in the Eyes or Reading between the Lines? Theory of Mind Predicts Collective Intelligence Equally Well Online and Face-To-Face

Recent research with face-to-face groups found that a measure of general group effectiveness (called “collective intelligence”) predicted a group’s performance on a wide range of different tasks. The same research also found that collective intelligence was correlated with the individual group members’ ability to reason about the mental states of others (an ability called “Theory of Mind” or “ToM”). Since ToM was measured in this work by a test that requires participants to “read” the mental states of others from looking at their eyes (the “Reading the Mind in the Eyes” test), it is uncertain whether the same results would emerge in online groups where these visual cues are not available. Here we find that: (1) a collective intelligence factor characterizes group performance approximately as well for online groups as for face-to-face groups; and (2) surprisingly, the ToM measure is equally predictive of collective intelligence in both face-to-face and online groups, even though the online groups communicate only via text and never see each other at all. This provides strong evidence that ToM abilities are just as important to group performance in online environments with limited nonverbal cues as they are face-to-face. It also suggests that the Reading the Mind in the Eyes test measures a deeper, domain-independent aspect of social reasoning, not merely the ability to recognize facial expressions of mental states.     

Short and Long Term Investor Synchronization Caused by Decoupling

The dynamics of collective decision making is not yet well understood. Its practical relevance however can be of utmost importance, as experienced by people who lost their fortunes in turbulent moments of financial markets. In this paper we show how spontaneous collective “moods” or “biases” emerge dynamically among human participants playing a trading game in a simple model of the stock market. Applying theory and computer simulations to the experimental data generated by humans, we are able to predict the onset of such moments before they actually happen.     

Early Prediction of Movie Box Office Success Based on Wikipedia Activity Big Data

Use of socially generated “big data” to access information about collective states of the minds in human societies has become a new paradigm in the emerging field of computational social science. A natural application of this would be the prediction of the society''s reaction to a new product in the sense of popularity and adoption rate. However, bridging the gap between “real time monitoring” and “early predicting” remains a big challenge. Here we report on an endeavor to build a minimalistic predictive model for the financial success of movies based on collective activity data of online users. We show that the popularity of a movie can be predicted much before its release by measuring and analyzing the activity level of editors and viewers of the corresponding entry to the movie in Wikipedia, the well-known online encyclopedia.     

Autologous HIV-1 Clade-B Nef Peptides Elicit Increased Frequency,Breadth and Function of CD8+ T-Cells Compared to Consensus Peptides

Objective

To determine the function and phenotype of CD8⁺ T-cells targeting consensus and autologous sequences of entire HIV-1 Nef protein.

Methods

Multiparameter flow cytometry-based analysis was used to evaluate the responses of two treatment naïve HIV-infected individuals, during primary and the chronic phases of infection.

Results

A greater breadth and magnitude of CD8 IFN-γ responses to autologous compared to clade-B consensus peptides was observed in both subjects. Cross recognition between autologous and consensus peptides decreased in both subjects during progression from primary to chronic infection. The frequencies of TEMRA and TEM CD8⁺ T-cells targeting autologous peptides were higher than those targeting consensus peptides and were more polyfunctional (IFN-γ⁺ Gr-B⁺ CD107a⁺).

Conclusions

Our data indicate superior sensitivity and specificity of autologous peptides. The functional and maturational aspects of “real” versus “cross-recognized” responses were also found to differ, highlighting the importance of a sequence-specific approach towards understanding HIV immune response.     

Bibliometric Evidence for a Hierarchy of the Sciences

The hypothesis of a Hierarchy of the Sciences, first formulated in the 19^th century, predicts that, moving from simple and general phenomena (e.g. particle dynamics) to complex and particular (e.g. human behaviour), researchers lose ability to reach theoretical and methodological consensus. This hypothesis places each field of research along a continuum of complexity and “softness”, with profound implications for our understanding of scientific knowledge. Today, however, the idea is still unproven and philosophically overlooked, too often confused with simplistic dichotomies that contrast natural and social sciences, or science and the humanities. Empirical tests of the hypothesis have usually compared few fields and this, combined with other limitations, makes their results contradictory and inconclusive. We verified whether discipline characteristics reflect a hierarchy, a dichotomy or neither, by sampling nearly 29,000 papers published contemporaneously in 12 disciplines and measuring a set of parameters hypothesised to reflect theoretical and methodological consensus. The biological sciences had in most cases intermediate values between the physical and the social, with bio-molecular disciplines appearing harder than zoology, botany or ecology. In multivariable analyses, most of these parameters were independent predictors of the hierarchy, even when mathematics and the humanities were included. These results support a “gradualist” view of scientific knowledge, suggesting that the Hierarchy of the Sciences provides the best rational framework to understand disciplines'' diversity. A deeper grasp of the relationship between subject matter''s complexity and consensus could have profound implications for how we interpret, publish, popularize and administer scientific research.     

Inner voltage clamping. A method for studying interactions among hydrophobic ions in a lipid bilayer

Ketterer, et al. (1971) have suggested that a combination of electrostatic and chemical interactions may cause hydrophobic ions absorbed within a bilayer lipid membrane to reside in two potential wells, each close to a membrane surface. The resulting two planes of charges would define three regions of membrane dielectric: two identical outer regions each between a plane of absorbed charges and the plane of closest approach of ions in the aqueous phase; and the inner region between the two planes of adsorbed charges. The theory describing charge translocation across the inner region is based on a simple three-capacitor model. A significant theoretical conclusion is that the difference between the voltage across the inner region, V_i, and the voltage across the entire membrane, V_m, is directly proportional to the amount of charge that has flowed in a voltage clamp experiment. We demonstrate that we can construct an “inner voltage clamp” that can maintain, with positive feedback, a constant inner voltage, V_i. The manifestation of proper feedback is that the clamp current (after a voltage step) will exhibit pure (i.e., single time-constant) exponential decay, because the voltage dependent rate constants governing translocation will be independent of time. The “pureness” of the exponential is maximized when the standard deviation of the least-square fit of the appropriate exponential equation to the experimental data is minimized. The concomitant feedback is directly related to the capacitances of the inner and outer membrane regions, C_i and C_o.

Experimental results with tetraphenylborate ion adsorbed in bacterial phosphatidylethanolamine/n-decane bilayers indicate C_i ~ 5 · 10^-7F/cm² and C_o ≈ 5 · 10^-5F/cm².

     

A Computational Model of Neuro-Glio-Vascular Loop Interactions

We present a computational, biophysical model of neuron-astrocyte-vessel interaction. Unlike other cells, neurons convey “hunger” signals to the vascular network via an intervening layer of glial cells (astrocytes); vessels dilate and release glucose which fuels neuronal firing. Existing computational models focus on only parts of this loop (neuron→astrocyte→vessel→neuron), whereas the proposed model describes the entire loop. Neuronal firing causes release of a neurotransmitter like glutamate which triggers release of vasodilator by astrocytes via a cascade of biochemical events. Vasodilators released from astrocytic endfeet cause blood vessels to dilate and release glucose into the interstitium, part of which is taken up by the astrocyticendfeet. Glucose is converted into lactate in the astrocyte and transported into the neuron. Glucose from the interstitium and lactate (produced from glucose) influx from astrocyte are converted into ATP in the neuron. Neuronal ATP is used to drive the Na⁺/K⁺ATPase pumps, which maintain ionic gradients necessary for neuronal firing. When placed in the metabolic loop, the neuron exhibits sustained firing only when the stimulation current is more than a minimum threshold. For various combinations of initial neuronal [ATP] and external current, the neuron exhibits a variety of firing patterns including sustained firing, firing after an initial pause, burst firing etc. Neurovascular interactions under conditions of constricted vessels are also studied. Most models of cerebral circulation describe neurovascular interactions exclusively in the “forward” neuron→vessel direction. The proposed model indicates possibility of “reverse” influence also, with vasomotion rhythms influencing neural firing patterns. Another idea that emerges out of the proposed work is that brain''s computations may be more comprehensively understood in terms of neuro-glial-vascular dynamics and not in terms of neural firing alone.     

The Context Dependency of the Self-Report Version of the Strength and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ): A Cross-Sectional Study between Two Administration Settings

Background

The Strength and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) is a screening instrument for psychosocial problems in children and adolescents, which is applied in “individual” and “collective” settings. Assessment in the individual setting is confidential for clinical applications, such as preventive child healthcare, while assessment in the collective setting is anonymous and applied in (epidemiological) research. Due to administration differences between the settings it remains unclear whether results and conclusions actually can be used interchangeably. This study therefore aims to investigate whether the SDQ is invariant across settings.

Methods

Two independent samples were retrieved (mean age = 14.07 years), one from an individual setting (N = 6,594) and one from a collective setting (N = 4,613). The SDQ was administered in the second year of secondary school in both settings. Samples come from the same socio-geographic population in the Netherlands.

Results

Confirmatory factor analysis showed that the SDQ was measurement invariant/equivalent across settings and gender. On average, children in the individual setting scored lower on total difficulties (mean difference = 2.05) and the psychosocial problems subscales compared to those in the collective setting. This was also reflected in the cut-off points for caseness, defined by the 90th percentiles, which were lower in the individual setting. Using cut-off points from the collective in the individual setting therefore resulted in a small number of cases, 2 to 3%, while ∼10% is expected.

Conclusion

The SDQ has the same connotation across the individual and collective setting. The observed structural differences regarding the mean scores, however, undermine the validity of the cross-use of absolute SDQ-scores between these settings. Applying cut-off scores from the collective setting in the individual setting could, therefore, result in invalid conclusions and potential misuse of the instrument. To correctly apply cut-off scores these should be retrieved from the applied setting.     

Physical and ecological isolation contribute to maintain genetic differentiation between fire salamander subspecies

Landscape features shape patterns of gene flow among populations, ultimately determining where taxa lay along the continuum between panmixia to complete reproductive isolation. Gene flow can be restricted, leading to population differentiation in two non-exclusive ways: “physical isolation”, in which geographic distance in combination with the landscape features restricts movement of individuals promoting genetic drift, and “ecological isolation”, in which adaptive mechanisms constrain gene flow between different environments via divergent natural selection. In central Iberia, two fire salamander subspecies occur in parapatry across elevation gradients along the Iberian Central System mountains, while in the adjacent Montes de Toledo Region only one of them occurs. By integrating population and landscape genetic analyses, we show a ubiquitous role of physical isolation between and within mountain ranges, with unsuitable landscapes increasing differentiation between populations. However, across the Iberian Central System, we found strong support for a significant contribution of ecological isolation, with low genetic differentiation in environmentally homogeneous areas, but high differentiation across sharp transitions in precipitation seasonality. These patterns are consistent with a significant contribution of ecological isolation in restricting gene flow among subspecies. Overall, our results suggest that ecological divergence contributes to reduce genetic admixture, creating an opportunity for lineages to follow distinct evolutionary trajectories.Subject terms: Evolutionary ecology, Speciation     

Categorical Vowel Perception Enhances the Effectiveness and Generalization of Auditory Feedback in Human-Machine-Interfaces

Human-machine interface (HMI) designs offer the possibility of improving quality of life for patient populations as well as augmenting normal user function. Despite pragmatic benefits, utilizing auditory feedback for HMI control remains underutilized, in part due to observed limitations in effectiveness. The goal of this study was to determine the extent to which categorical speech perception could be used to improve an auditory HMI. Using surface electromyography, 24 healthy speakers of American English participated in 4 sessions to learn to control an HMI using auditory feedback (provided via vowel synthesis). Participants trained on 3 targets in sessions 1–3 and were tested on 3 novel targets in session 4. An “established categories with text cues” group of eight participants were trained and tested on auditory targets corresponding to standard American English vowels using auditory and text target cues. An “established categories without text cues” group of eight participants were trained and tested on the same targets using only auditory cuing of target vowel identity. A “new categories” group of eight participants were trained and tested on targets that corresponded to vowel-like sounds not part of American English. Analyses of user performance revealed significant effects of session and group (established categories groups and the new categories group), and a trend for an interaction between session and group. Results suggest that auditory feedback can be effectively used for HMI operation when paired with established categorical (native vowel) targets with an unambiguous cue.     

Marine Plastic Pollution in Waters around Australia: Characteristics,Concentrations, and Pathways

Plastics represent the vast majority of human-made debris present in the oceans. However, their characteristics, accumulation zones, and transport pathways remain poorly assessed. We characterised and estimated the concentration of marine plastics in waters around Australia using surface net tows, and inferred their potential pathways using particle-tracking models and real drifter trajectories. The 839 marine plastics recorded were predominantly small fragments (“microplastics”, median length = 2.8 mm, mean length = 4.9 mm) resulting from the breakdown of larger objects made of polyethylene and polypropylene (e.g. packaging and fishing items). Mean sea surface plastic concentration was 4256.4 pieces km⁻², and after incorporating the effect of vertical wind mixing, this value increased to 8966.3 pieces km⁻². These plastics appear to be associated with a wide range of ocean currents that connect the sampled sites to their international and domestic sources, including populated areas of Australia''s east coast. This study shows that plastic contamination levels in surface waters of Australia are similar to those in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Maine, but considerably lower than those found in the subtropical gyres and Mediterranean Sea. Microplastics such as the ones described here have the potential to affect organisms ranging from megafauna to small fish and zooplankton.