Projections of suitable habitat for rare species under global warming scenarios

? Premise of the study: Modeling the contemporary and future climate niche for rare plants is a major hurdle in conservation, yet such projections are necessary to prevent extinctions that may result from climate change. ? Methods: We used recently developed spline climatic models and modified Random Forests statistical procedures to predict suitable habitats of three rare, endangered spruces of Mexico and a spruce of the southwestern USA. We used three general circulation models and two sets of carbon emission scenarios (optimistic and pessimistic) for future climates. ? Key results: Our procedures predicted present occurrence perfectly. For the decades 2030, 2060, and 2090, the ranges of all taxa progressively decreased, to the point of transient disappearance for one species in the decade 2060 but reappearance in 2090. Contrary to intuition, habitat did not develop to the north for any of the Mexican taxa; rather, climate niches for two taxa re-materialized several hundred kilometers southward in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. The climate niche for a third Mexican taxon shrank drastically, and its two mitotypes responded differently, one of the first demonstrations of the importance of intraspecific genetic variation in climate niches. The climate niche of the U.S. species shrank northward and upward in elevation. ? Conclusion: The results are important for conservation of these species and are of general significance for conservation by assisted colonization. We conclude that our procedures for producing models and projecting the climate niches of Mexican spruces provide a way for handling other rare plants, which constitute the great bulk of the world's endangered and most vulnerable flora.     

To Be Or Not to Be? Variable selection can change the projected fate of a threatened species under future climate

Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to project future changes in the geographic ranges of species, to estimate extinction rates and to plan biodiversity conservation. However, these models can produce a range of results depending on how they are parameterized, and over‐reliance on a single model may lead to overconfidence in maps of future distributions. The choice of predictor variable can have a greater influence on projected future habitat than the range of climate models used. We demonstrate this in the case of the Ptunarra Brown Butterfly, a species listed as vulnerable in Tasmania, Australia. We use the Maxent model to develop future projections for this species based on three variable sets; all 35 commonly used so‐called ‘bioclimatic’ variables, a subset of these based on expert knowledge, and a set of monthly climate variables relevant to the species’ primary activity period. We used a dynamically downscaled regional climate model based on three global climate models. Depending on the choice of variable set, the species is projected either to experience very little contraction of habitat or to come close to extinction by the end of the century due to lack of suitable climate. The different conclusions could have important consequences for conservation planning and management, including the perceived viability of habitat restoration. The output of SDMs should therefore be used to define the range of possible trajectories a species may be on, and ongoing monitoring used to inform management as changes occur.     

Implications of Climate Change for Bird Conservation in the Southwestern U.S. under Three Alternative Futures

Future expected changes in climate and human activity threaten many riparian habitats, particularly in the southwestern U.S. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt3.3.3) modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the Lucy’s warbler (Oreothlypis luciae), the Southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) and the Western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus). Our goal was to provide site- and species-specific information that can be used by managers to identify areas for habitat conservation and/or restoration along the Rio Grande in New Mexico. We created models of suitable habitat for each species based on collection and survey samples and climate, biophysical, and vegetation data. We projected habitat suitability under future climates by applying these models to conditions generated from three climate models for 2030, 2060 and 2090. By comparing current and future distributions, we identified how habitats are likely to change as a result of changing climate and the consequences of those changes for these bird species. We also examined whether land ownership of high value sites shifts under changing climate conditions. Habitat suitability models performed well. Biophysical characteristics were more important that climate conditions for predicting habitat suitability with distance to water being the single most important predictor. Climate, though less important, was still influential and led to declines of suitable habitat of more than 60% by 2090. For all species, suitable habitat tended to shrink over time within the study area leaving a few core areas of high importance. Overall, climate changes will increase habitat fragmentation and reduce breeding habitat patch size. The best strategy for conserving bird species within the Rio Grande will include measures to maintain and restore critical habitat refugia. This study provides an example of a presence-only habitat model that can be used to inform the management of species at intermediate scales.     

Extinction processes in hot spots of avian biodiversity and the targeting of pre-emptive conservation action

Hot spots of endemism are regarded as important global sites for conservation as they are rich in threatened endemic species and currently experiencing extensive habitat loss. Targeting pre-emptive conservation action to sites that are currently relatively intact but which would be vulnerable to particular human activities if they occurred in the future is, however, also valuable but has received less attention. Here, we address this issue by using data on Endemic Bird Areas (EBAs). First, we identify the ecological factors that affect extinction risk in the face of particular human activities, and then use these insights to identify EBAs that should be priorities for pre-emptive conservation action. Threatened endemic species in EBAs are significantly more likely to be habitat specialists or relatively large-bodied than non-threatened species, when compared across avian families. Increasing habitat loss causes a significant increase in extinction risk among habitat specialists, but we found no evidence to suggest that the presence of alien species/human exploitation causes a significant increase in extinction risk among large-bodied species. This suggests that these particular human activities are contributing to high extinction risk among habitat specialists, but not among large-bodied species. Based on these analyses, we identify 39 EBAs containing 570 species (24% of the total in EBAs) that are not currently threatened with severe habitat loss, but would be ecologically vulnerable to future habitat loss should it occur. We show that these sites tend to be poorly represented in existing priority setting exercises involving hot spots, suggesting that vulnerability must be explicitly included within these exercises if such sites are to be adequately protected.     

Riverscape genetics identifies speckled dace (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Rhinichthys osculus</Emphasis>) cryptic diversity in the Klamath–Trinity Basin

Cataloging biodiversity is of great importance given that habitat destruction has dramatically increased extinction rates. While the presence of cryptic species poses challenges for biodiversity assessment, molecular analysis has proven useful in uncovering this hidden diversity. Using nuclear microsatellite markers and mitochondrial DNA we investigated the genetic structure of Klamath speckled dace (Rhinichthys osculus klamathensis), a subspecies endemic to the Klamath–Trinity basin. Analysis of 25 sample sites within the basin uncovered cryptic diversity including three distinct genetic groups: (1) a group that is widely distributed throughout the Klamath River mainstem and its tributaries, (2) a group distributed in the Trinity River, the largest tributary to the Klamath River, and (3) a group identified above a 10 m waterfall in Jenny Creek, a small tributary to the Klamath River. All groups were resolved as divergent in nuclear microsatellite analysis and exhibited levels of divergence in mitochondrial DNA that were comparable to those observed among recognized Rhinichthys species. No physical barriers currently separate the Klamath and Trinity groups and the precise mechanism that generated and maintains the groups as distinct despite contact and hybridization is unknown. The present study highlights the importance of incorporating molecular analysis into biodiversity research to uncover cryptic diversity. We recommend that future biodiversity inventories recognize three genetically distinct groups of speckled dace in the Klamath–Trinity Basin.     

Land use changes could modify future negative effects of climate change on old‐growth forest indicator species

Aim

Climate change is expected to have major impacts on terrestrial biodiversity at all ecosystem levels, including reductions in species‐level distribution and abundance. We aim to test the extent to which land use management, such as setting‐aside forest from production, could reduce climate‐induced biodiversity impacts for specialist species over large geographical gradients.

Location

Sweden.

Methods

We applied ensembles of species distribution models based on citizen science data for six species of red‐listed old‐forest indicator fungi confined to spruce dead wood. We tested the effect on species habitat suitabilities of alternative climate change scenarios and varying amounts of forest set‐aside from production over the coming century.

Results

With 3.6% of forest area set‐aside from production and assuming no climate change, overall habitat suitabilities for all six species were projected to increase in response to maturing spruce in set‐aside forest. However, overall habitat suitabilities for all six species were projected to decline under climate change scenario RCP4.5 (intermediate–low emissions), with even greater declines projected under RCP 8.5 (high emissions). Increasing the amount of forest set‐aside to 16% resulted in significant increases in overall habitat suitability, with one species showing an increase. A further increase to 32% forest set‐aside resulted in considerably more positive trends, with three of six species increasing.

Main conclusions

There is interspecific variation in the importance of future macroclimate and resource availability on species occurrence. However, large‐scale conservation measures, such as increasing resource availability through setting aside forest from production, could reduce future negative effects from climate change, and early investment in conservation is likely to reduce the future negative impacts of climate change on specialist species.     

Forecasting climate-driven habitat changes for Australian freshwater fishes

Aims

Climate change is expected to have profound effects on species' distributions into the future. Freshwater fishes, an important component of freshwater ecosystems, are no exception. Here, we project shifts in suitable conditions for Australian freshwater fishes under different climate change scenarios to identify species that may experience significant declines in habitat suitability.

Location

Australia.

Methods

We use MAXENT bioclimatic models to estimate the effect of climate change on the suitable conditions for 154 species of Australian freshwater fishes, of which 109 are endemic and 29 are threatened with extinction. Suitable conditions for freshwater fish species are modelled using three different Earth System climate models (ESMs) under two different emission scenarios to the year 2100. For each species, we examine potential geographic shifts in the distribution of suitable conditions from the present day to 2100 and quantify how habitat suitability may change at currently occupied sites by the end of this century.

Results

Broadscale poleward shifts in suitable conditions are projected for Australian freshwater fishes by an average of up to 0.38° (~180 km) across all species, depending on the emission scenario. Considerable loss of suitable conditions is forecast to occur within currently recognized distributional extents by 2100, with a mean projected loss of up to 17.5% across species. Predicted geographic range shifts and declines are larger under a high-emission scenario. Threatened species are projected to be more adversely affected than nonthreatened species.

Main Conclusions

Our models identify species and geographic regions that may be vulnerable to climate change, enabling freshwater fish conservation into the future.     

Range contractions and reduced body mass predicted for endemic skinks of the Cameroon Volcanic Line with future warming

Aim

The vulnerability of montane species to environmental change has been increasingly recognized in recent years. However, most of these species are regionally endemic with restricted distributions, limiting dispersal necessary for avoiding extinction. The outcome of threats posed for montane lizards is further complicated in species exhibiting mass–temperature relationships where body size increases with cooling temperatures, and thus with altitude, causing intraspecific physiological and behavioural differences. We aimed to identify areas suitable for montane endemic skinks of the Cameroon Volcanic Line (CVL) under current and future climates to reveal patterns of persistence and vulnerability based on an intersection of climate and body mass.

Location

Cameroon Volcanic Line

Methods

We recorded occurrences and measured body mass in the field for two CVL-endemic skink species. We supplemented occurrences with online repository records. We projected current and future habitat suitability in the region by implementing bioclimatic species distribution models-based on occurrences. We tested for elevational variations in body mass, and integrated both occurrence and body mass information in a trait-based model to estimate current and future body mass.

Results

Projected currently suitable habitat for both species was limited to higher elevation regions, which are inhabited by numerous other threatened herpetofauna. We additionally detected Bergmann clines in body mass for both species. Given this variation in body mass, trait model projections covered slightly larger geographical ranges than bioclimatic estimates. Under future warming, both models project substantial contractions in suitable areas, potentially constraining species to mountain tops. Through the trait-based approach, we further detected potential warming-induced body mass reductions in projected suitable areas.

Main Conclusions

We demonstrate how combining occurrence records with species trait information in ecological modelling can reveal complementary trends for comprehensive warming impact assessments. Overall, challenges toward the persistence of CVL-endemic skinks should prompt urgent responses in national conservation management and local community engagement.     

Modeling plant species distributions under future climates: how fine scale do climate projections need to be?

Recent studies suggest that species distribution models (SDMs) based on fine‐scale climate data may provide markedly different estimates of climate‐change impacts than coarse‐scale models. However, these studies disagree in their conclusions of how scale influences projected species distributions. In rugged terrain, coarse‐scale climate grids may not capture topographically controlled climate variation at the scale that constitutes microhabitat or refugia for some species. Although finer scale data are therefore considered to better reflect climatic conditions experienced by species, there have been few formal analyses of how modeled distributions differ with scale. We modeled distributions for 52 plant species endemic to the California Floristic Province of different life forms and range sizes under recent and future climate across a 2000‐fold range of spatial scales (0.008–16 km²). We produced unique current and future climate datasets by separately downscaling 4 km climate models to three finer resolutions based on 800, 270, and 90 m digital elevation models and deriving bioclimatic predictors from them. As climate‐data resolution became coarser, SDMs predicted larger habitat area with diminishing spatial congruence between fine‐ and coarse‐scale predictions. These trends were most pronounced at the coarsest resolutions and depended on climate scenario and species' range size. On average, SDMs projected onto 4 km climate data predicted 42% more stable habitat (the amount of spatial overlap between predicted current and future climatically suitable habitat) compared with 800 m data. We found only modest agreement between areas predicted to be stable by 90 m models generalized to 4 km grids compared with areas classified as stable based on 4 km models, suggesting that some climate refugia captured at finer scales may be missed using coarser scale data. These differences in projected locations of habitat change may have more serious implications than net habitat area when predictive maps form the basis of conservation decision making.     

Optimizing resiliency of reserve networks to climate change: multispecies conservation planning in the Pacific Northwest,USA

The effectiveness of a system of reserves may be compromised under climate change as species' habitat shifts to nonreserved areas, a problem that may be compounded when well‐studied vertebrate species are used as conservation umbrellas for other taxa. The Northwest Forest Plan was among the first efforts to integrate conservation of wide‐ranging focal species and localized endemics into regional conservation planning. We evaluated how effectively the plan's focal species, the Northern Spotted Owl, acts as an umbrella for localized species under current and projected future climates and how the regional system of reserves can be made more resilient to climate change. We used the program maxent to develop distribution models integrating climate data with vegetation variables for the owl and 130 localized species. We used the program zonation to identify a system of areas that efficiently captures habitat for both the owl and localized species and prioritizes refugial areas of climatic and topographic heterogeneity where current and future habitat for dispersal‐limited species is in proximity. We projected future species' distributions based on an ensemble of contrasting climate models, and incorporating uncertainty between alternate climate projections into the prioritization process. Reserve solutions based on the owl overlap areas of high localized‐species richness but poorly capture core areas of localized species' distribution. Congruence between priority areas across taxa increases when refugial areas are prioritized. Although core‐area selection strategies can potentially increase the conservation value and resilience of regional reserve systems, they accentuate contrasts in priority areas between species and over time and should be combined with a broadened taxonomic scope and increased attention to potential effects of climate change. Our results suggest that systems of fixed reserves designed for resilience can increase the likelihood of retaining the biological diversity of forest ecosystems under climate change.     

Observed and projected functional reorganization of riverine fish assemblages from global change

Climate and land-use/land-cover change (“global change”) are restructuring biodiversity, globally. Broadly, environmental conditions are expected to become warmer, potentially drier (particularly in arid regions), and more anthropogenically developed in the future, with spatiotemporally complex effects on ecological communities. We used functional traits to inform Chesapeake Bay Watershed fish responses to future climate and land-use scenarios (2030, 2060, and 2090). We modeled the future habitat suitability of focal species representative of key trait axes (substrate, flow, temperature, reproduction, and trophic) and used functional and phylogenetic metrics to assess variable assemblage responses across physiographic regions and habitat sizes (headwaters through large rivers). Our focal species analysis projected future habitat suitability gains for carnivorous species with preferences for warm water, pool habitats, and fine or vegetated substrates. At the assemblage level, models projected decreasing habitat suitability for cold-water, rheophilic, and lithophilic individuals but increasing suitability for carnivores in the future across all regions. Projected responses of functional and phylogenetic diversity and redundancy differed among regions. Lowland regions were projected to become less functionally and phylogenetically diverse and more redundant while upland regions (and smaller habitat sizes) were projected to become more diverse and less redundant. Next, we assessed how these model-projected assemblage changes 2005–2030 related to observed time-series trends (1999–2016). Halfway through the initial projecting period (2005–2030), we found observed trends broadly followed modeled patterns of increasing proportions of carnivorous and lithophilic individuals in lowland regions but showed opposing patterns for functional and phylogenetic metrics. Leveraging observed and predicted analyses simultaneously helps elucidate the instances and causes of discrepancies between model predictions and ongoing observed changes. Collectively, results highlight the complexity of global change impacts across broad landscapes that likely relate to differences in assemblages' intrinsic sensitivities and external exposure to stressors.     

Applying species distribution modelling to improving conservation based decisions: a gap analysis of Trinidad and Tobago’s endemic vascular plants

For the successful conservation of a species, habitat loss and fragmentation must be controlled through a protected area network that adequately covers its habitat. Here the suitable habitats of all of Trinidad and Tobago’s endemic plant species are determined and used to perform a gap analysis of a proposed protected area network. Data from a recently completed botanical survey, the WorldClim 2 environmental parameters, and a range of other sources were used to determine the habitat of each species using the species distribution model MaxEnt. Modelled habitat suitability for each species was combined and used to create maps showing endemic richness, weighted endemism and corrected weighted endemism, and to rank areas by conservation value using Zonation. The coverage of the proposed protected area network and a land use map were overlaid on these modelled distributions. We identified data limitations which meant that more than half of the 66 endemic species could not be modelled with confidence. For the remaining species, we found that the proposed protected area network contains just 13?±?7% of the total modelled habitat of the endemic species. For eight endemic species?>?25% of the suitable habitat is degraded. Model analysis indicated that elevation and temperature seasonality are the most important drivers of endemism. Based on a gap analysis the inclusion of high elevation areas of Trinidad’s Northern Range in the proposed protected area network would expand the coverage to include?>?25% of the total modelled habitat of the endemic species, thus greatly increasing the long-term sustainability of the endemic species populations.     

Predicted impact of exotic vines on an endangered ecological community under future climate change

Potential interactions between climate change and exotic plant invasions may affect areas of high conservation value, such as land set aside for the protection of endangered species or ecological communities. We investigated this issue in eastern Australia using species distribution models for five exotic vines under climate regimes for 2020 and 2050. We examined how projected changes in the distribution of climatically suitable habitat may coincide with the remaining remnants of an endangered ecological community—littoral rainforests—in this region. The number of known infestations of each weed in tropical, subtropical and temperate areas was used to assess the likelihood of further expansion into areas projected to provide suitable habitat under future conditions. Littoral rainforest reserves were consistently predicted to provide bioclimatically suitable habitat for the five vines examined under both current and future climate scenarios. We explore the consequences and potential strategies for managing exotic plant invasions in these protected areas in the coming decades.     

Drivers of extinction: the case of Azorean beetles

Oceanic islands host a disproportionately high fraction of endangered or recently extinct endemic species. We report on species extinctions among endemic Azorean beetles following 97% habitat loss since AD 1440. We infer extinctions from historical and contemporary records and examine the influence of three predictors: geographical range, habitat specialization and body size. Of 55 endemic beetle species investigated (out of 63), seven can be considered extinct. Single-island endemics (SIEs) were more prone to extinction than multi-island endemics. Within SIEs restricted to native habitat, larger species were more extinction-prone. We thus show a hierarchical path to extinction in Azorean beetles: species with small geographical range face extinction first, with the larger bodied ones being the most threatened. Our study provides a clear warning of the impact of habitat loss on island endemic biotas.     

Synergistic effects of climate and land-use change on representation of African bats in priority conservation areas

Bats are considered important bioindicators and deliver key ecosystem services to humans. However, it is not clear how the individual and combined effects of climate change and land-use change will affect their conservation in the future. We used a spatial conservation prioritization framework to determine future shifts in the priority areas for the conservation of 169 bat species under projected climate and land-use change scenarios across Africa. Specifically, we modelled species distribution models under four different climate change scenarios at the 2050 horizon. We used land-use change scenarios within the spatial conservation prioritization framework to assess habitat quality in areas where bats may shift their distributions. Overall, bats’ representation within already existing protected areas in Africa was low (∼5% of their suitable habitat in protected areas which cover ∼7% of Africa). Accounting for future land-use change resulted in the largest shift in spatial priority areas for conservation actions, and species representation within priority areas for conservation actions decreased by ∼9%. A large proportion of spatial conservation priorities will shift from forested areas with little disturbance under present conditions to agricultural areas in the future. Planning land use to reduce impacts on bats in priority areas outside protected areas where bats will be shifting their ranges in the future is crucial to enhance their conservation and maintain the important ecosystem services they provide to humans.     

Occupancy versus colonization–extinction models for projecting population trends at different spatial scales

Understanding spatiotemporal population trends and their drivers is a key aim in population ecology. We further need to be able to predict how the dynamics and sizes of populations are affected in the long term by changing landscapes and climate. However, predictions of future population trends are sensitive to a range of modeling assumptions. Deadwood‐dependent fungi are an excellent system for testing the performance of different predictive models of sessile species as these species have different rarity and spatial population dynamics, the populations are structured at different spatial scales, and they utilize distinct substrates. We tested how the projected large‐scale occupancies of species with differing landscape‐scale occupancies are affected over the coming century by different modeling assumptions. We compared projections based on occupancy models against colonization–extinction models, conducting the modeling at alternative spatial scales and using fine‐ or coarse‐resolution deadwood data. We also tested effects of key explanatory variables on species occurrence and colonization–extinction dynamics. The hierarchical Bayesian models applied were fitted to an extensive repeated survey of deadwood and fungi at 174 patches. We projected higher occurrence probabilities and more positive trends using the occupancy models compared to the colonization–extinction models, with greater difference for the species with lower occupancy, colonization rate, and colonization:extinction ratio than for the species with higher estimates of these statistics. The magnitude of future increase in occupancy depended strongly on the spatial modeling scale and resource resolution. We encourage using colonization–extinction models over occupancy models, modeling the process at the finest resource‐unit resolution that is utilizable by the species, and conducting projections for the same spatial scale and resource resolution at which the model fitting is conducted. Further, the models applied should include key variables driving the metapopulation dynamics, such as the availability of suitable resource units, habitat quality, and spatial connectivity.     

Population modelling and genetics of a critically endangered Madagascan palm Tahina spectabilis

Madagascar is home to 208 indigenous palm species, almost all of them endemic and >80% of which are endangered. We undertook complete population census and sampling for genetic analysis of a relatively recently discovered giant fan palm, the Critically Endangered Tahina spectablis in 2008 and 2016. Our 2016 study included newly discovered populations and added to our genetic study. We incorporated these new populations into species distribution niche model (SDM) and projected these onto maps of the region. We developed population matrix models based on observed demographic data to model population change and predict the species vulnerability to extinction by undertaking population viability analysis (PVA). We investigated the potential conservation value of reintroduced planted populations within the species potential suitable habitat. We found that the population studied in 2008 had grown in size due to seedling regeneration but had declined in the number of reproductively mature plants, and we were able to estimate that the species reproduces and dies after approximately 70 years. Our models suggest that if the habitat where it resides continues to be protected the species is unlikely to go extinct due to inherent population decline and that it will likely experience significant population growth after approximately 80 years due to the reproductive and life cycle attributes of the species. The newly discovered populations contain more genetic diversity than the first discovered southern population which is genetically depauperate. The species appears to demonstrate a pattern of dispersal leading to isolated founder plants which may eventually lead to population development depending on local establishment opportunities. The conservation efforts currently put in place including the reintroduction of plants within the species potential suitable habitat if maintained are thought likely to enable the species to sustain itself but it remains vulnerable to anthropogenic impacts.     

Future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss

Current levels of endangerment and historical trends of species and habitats are the main criteria used to direct conservation efforts globally. Estimates of future declines, which might indicate different priorities than past declines, have been limited by the lack of appropriate data and models. Given that much of conservation is about anticipating and responding to future threats, our inability to look forward at a global scale has been a major constraint on effective action. Here, we assess the geography and extent of projected future changes in suitable habitat for terrestrial mammals within their present ranges. We used a global earth-system model, IMAGE, coupled with fine-scale habitat suitability models and parametrized according to four global scenarios of human development. We identified the most affected countries by 2050 for each scenario, assuming that no additional conservation actions other than those described in the scenarios take place. We found that, with some exceptions, most of the countries with the largest predicted losses of suitable habitat for mammals are in Africa and the Americas. African and North American countries were also predicted to host the most species with large proportional global declines. Most of the countries we identified as future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss have little or no overlap with the present global conservation priorities, thus confirming the need for forward-looking analyses in conservation priority setting. The expected growth in human populations and consumption in hotspots of future mammal loss mean that local conservation actions such as protected areas might not be sufficient to mitigate losses. Other policies, directed towards the root causes of biodiversity loss, are required, both in Africa and other parts of the world.     

Regional- and watershed-scale analysis of red spruce habitat in the southeastern United States: implications for future restoration efforts

Red spruce (Picea rubens) is an evergreen tree with a range from Canada to North Carolina that provides habitat for multiple rare, endemic species. Red spruce-dominated forests once covered over 600,000 ha in the southeastern US, yet currently occupy a small fraction of their historical range due largely to logging that began in the nineteenth century. To combat this loss, restoration groups have emerged to actively improve the health and areal extent of red spruce. This study was conducted to (1) predict how suitable habitat for red spruce in the southeastern US is expected to change by the year 2100 in response to increasing global temperatures and (2) illustrate how these predictions can be used, in concert with local-scale information, to support efforts to restore red spruce in this region. Red spruce currently occupies a small fraction of the area indicated by our model to be suitable. The area of habitat supportive of red spruce was projected to decline from present day to the year 2100, but the magnitude of this decline depended on the level of carbon emissions, and there was considerable variability between climate models. In our case-study watershed, suitability for red spruce is predicted to decline by 2100, but may still support red spruce under optimistic to moderate emissions scenarios. At this scale, restoration strategies should also take into account locally varying conditions such as the current distribution of red spruce and competitive shrubs that may inhibit growth.     

Conservation status and ex situ cultivation efforts of endemic flora of the Juan Fernández Archipelago

Was realized field studies and ex situ propagation on the vascular flora of Juan Fernández Archipelago during 15 year period. To evaluate the conservation status of a total of 133 species and subspecies of vascular endemic plants I used a IUCN classification founding: 2 species extinct, 1 extinct in it natural habitat, 52 critically endangered, 37 endangered and 9 vulnerable. Thus, 73.8% are contained in a threat category; only 24 taxon can be considered to be of a lesser conservation concern. The largest threat of extinction is a reduction in individuals in local populations resulting in small, isolated populations. This habitat fragmentation and a reduction in endemic flora has also impacted endemic fauna. Besides, during this period was propagated in nurseries a total of 80 of these species and subspecies (60%). It seem clear the necessity to continue to actions conserve this particular ecosystem.