Modelling the effect of temperature variation on the seasonal dynamics of Ixodes ricinus tick populations

Seasonal variation in temperature is known to drive annual patterns of tick activity and can influence the dynamics of tick-borne diseases. An age-structured model of the dynamics of Ixodes ricinus populations was developed to explore how changes in average temperature and different levels of temperature variability affect seasonal patterns of tick activity and the transmission of tick-borne diseases. The model produced seasonal patterns of tick emergence that are consistent with those observed throughout Great Britain. Varying average temperature across a continuous spectrum produced a systematic pattern in the times of peak emergence of questing ticks which depends on cumulative temperature over the year. Examination of the effects of between-year stochastic temperature variation on this pattern indicated that peak emergence times are more strongly affected by temperature stochasticity at certain levels of average temperature. Finally the model was extended to give a simple representation of the dynamics of a tick-borne disease. A threshold level of annual cumulative temperature was identified at which disease persistence is sensitive to stochastic temperature variation. In conclusion, the effect of changing patterns of temperature variation on the dynamics of I. ricinus ticks and the diseases they transmit may depend on the cumulative temperature over the year and will therefore vary across different locations. The results also indicate that diapause mechanisms have an important influence on seasonal patterns of tick activity and require further study.     

Grazing intensifies degradation of a Tibetan Plateau alpine meadow through plant–pest interaction

Understanding the plant–pest interaction under warming with grazing conditions is critical to predict the response of alpine meadow to future climate change. We investigated the effects of experimental warming and grazing on the interaction between plants and the grassland caterpillar Gynaephora menyuanensis in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau in 2010 and 2011. Our results showed that grazing significantly increased nitrogen concentration in graminoids and sward openness with a lower sward height, sward coverage, and plant litter mass in the community. Grazing significantly increased G. menyuanensis body size and potential fecundity in 2010. The increases in female body size were about twofold greater than in males. In addition, grazing significantly increased G. menyuanensis density and its negative effects on aboveground biomass and graminoid coverage in 2011. We found that G. menyuanensis body size was significantly positively correlated with nitrogen concentration in graminoids but negatively correlated with plant litter mass. Even though warming did not significantly increased G. menyuanensis performance and the negative effects of G. menyuanensis on alpine meadow, the increases in G. menyuanensis growth rate and its negative effect on aboveground biomass under the warming with grazing treatment were significantly higher than those under the no warming with grazing treatment. The positive effects of grazing on G. menyuanensis performance and its damage were exacerbated by the warming treatment. Our results suggest that the fitness of G. menyuanensis would increase under future warming with grazing conditions, thereby posing a greater risk to alpine meadow and livestock production.     

Relationships among recent models for insect population dynamics with variable rates of development

A classification scheme for those population models which allow variation in development rates is proposed, based on two ways of modifying standard age-structured models. The resulting classes of models are termed development index models and sojourn time models. General formulations for the two classes of models are developed from two basic balance equations, and numerous specific models from the literature are shown to fit into the scheme. Concepts from competing risks theory are shown to be important in understanding the interplay between mortality and maturation. Relationships among the classes are investigated both for the most general forms of the models and for the simpler forms often used. The scheme can provide guidance in developing appropriate insect population models for specific modelling situations.Contribution 3878871     

Modeling the interaction of physiological time, seasonal weather patterns, and delayed mating on population dynamics of codling moth, Cydia pomonella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae)

The effect of delaying female mating on population growth in codling moth (Cydia pomonella (L.)) was found to act on a physiological time (degree-day) basis and was predictable using a simple quadratic equation. When combined with previous work on degree-day based mortality, we were able to evaluate how the magnitude of population reduction and survival varied between sites, years, and generations at locations in California, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Washington states. In general, reductions in population growth associated with females mating 1–3 days after emergence were greater in warmer areas and during warmer times of the year. In any given year and location, the temperature profiles during peak flight were crucial in determining the population reductions, but over an 11-year period, the average seasonal temperature profile was more important. During the overwintering generation, conditions were relatively mild in all locations and only minor differences were observed in population growth rates between locations. Populations experiencing 1–3 days delay in female mating were reduced 8, 19 and 32 % compared to populations experiencing no delay, respectively. During the first summer generation, population reductions doubled compared to those seen in the overwintering generation. During the second summer flight, reductions in population growth rate at the three cooler locations decreased, while they increased in the warmer California location. Overall, the results show delayed mating can help understand how population growth is related to environmental conditions experienced naturally by insect populations and will help guide studies of the mechanisms of mating disruption, a technique used for pest suppression in agricultural and forest systems.     

Research of population with impulsive perturbations based on dynamics of a neutral delay equation and ecological quality system

This paper studies the global behaviors of a nonlinear autonomous neutral delay differential population model with impulsive perturbation. This model may be suitable for describing the dynamics of population with long larval and short adult phases. It is shown that the system may have global stability of the extinction and positive equilibria, or grow without being bounded under some conditions.     

Spatial variation in the demography and population dynamics of a perennial shrub (Atriplex vesicaria) under sheep grazing in semi‐arid Australian rangelands

Atriplex vesicaria Heward ex Benth. (Chenopodiaceae) is a widespread perennial shrub in southern Australia's chenopod rangelands but is sensitive to grazing. A detailed investigation of the demography and population dynamics of A. vesicaria under sheep grazing was conducted over 6.5 years at a range of sites across a typical paddock to assess the long‐term effects of grazing on the species and elucidate the mechanisms of population change under grazing. The effects of rainfall on recruitment and mortality were also examined. Six‐monthly censuses of all A. vesicaria individuals were conducted in permanent grazed and ungrazed plots at sites located across an 1100‐ha paddock. Grazing increased adult shrub mortality close to water and reduced recruitment over a broader area of the paddock, but seedling survival did not appear to be affected by grazing. As a result of these changes, the population declined on grazed plots up to 2200 m from water during the study, but the decline was greatest closer to water. The population was most dynamic at the sites furthest from the water point where it was unaffected by grazing because of the greater recruitment and mortality of young plants, but because these processes balanced out over time, population density was effectively unchanged by the end of the study. Although statistical models indicated that six‐monthly rainfall did not explain temporal variation in recruitment or mortality, rainfall nevertheless has a central role in both processes. In particular, longer periods of favourable rainfall and drought appear to have an important influence on recruitment and mortality, respectively, with heavy grazing during a drought period increasing mortality. Occasional shortages of seed or rains occurring during the warmer months when seed germination is limited possibly explain poor recruitment at sites unaffected by grazing following good rainfall.     

Interaction of Ca2+ and Na+ ions with polygalacturonate chains: a molecular dynamics study

Partially esterified polygalacturonic acid is the main component of pectin in higher plants. The carboxylic groups and their methyl esters markedly affect the ability of the pectin molecules to bind oppositely charged ions and to form gels. In order to make a contribution to the understanding of the mechanisms which regulate the ionic transfer at the soil–root interface and in the apoplast, we report the results of a set of molecular dynamics experiments in which the interactions of four fully deprotonated fragments of polygalacturonic acid, each counting 12 units, 300 water molecules and 48 or 24 Na+ and Ca2+ ions were studied.We observed the formation of Ca2+ bridges between the polygalacturonate chains. The forces driving the aggregation processes are characterized by the formation of strong coulombic interactions between the metal ions and the carboxylate groups. The results are consistent with experiment evidence of the formation of Ca–polygalacturonate organized gels. The Ca–polygalacturonate complex exhibits a lower energy compared to that of Na–polygalacturonate. The ratio of the Na+ and Ca2+ diffusion coefficients agree well with experimental reports.     

The population dynamics of Ostertagia gruehneri in reindeer: a model for the seasonal and intensity dependent variation in nematode fecundity

The gastrointestinal nematode Ostertagia gruehneri is a parasite of reindeer that can have a significant impact on host population dynamics. To gain a better understanding of the population dynamics of O. gruehneri, we parameterise a model for its fecundity that describes the observed seasonal and intensity dependent pattern of faecal egg counts well. The faecal egg count model is combined with a model for the seasonal faecal production rate of Svalbard reindeer to obtain quantitative estimates of the fecundity of O. gruehneri. The model is used to evaluate the relative contribution to pasture contamination of variation in the abundance of O. gruehneri and variation in reindeer densities. It is concluded that due to the intensity dependence in nematode fecundity, variation in reindeer population densities is likely to be the most important of these factors for pasture contamination.     

Individual optimization efforts and population dynamics: a mathematical model for the evolution of resource allocation strategies, with applications to reproductive and mating systems

We develop a formal framework for the optimal allocation of limited resources that includes and clarifies the interplay between individual optimization and the resulting effects at the population level. As an example, in regard to the evolution of sexual recombination, the paradox of the twofold cost of sex is avoided by distinguishing between the evolution of recombination and the subsequent emergence and stability of different mating types as a result of individual optimization within a population that benefits from recombination.

Ovarian development status and population characteristics of Sogatella furcifera (Horváth) and Nilaparvata lugens (Stål): implications for pest forecasting

Migratory behaviour in insects correlates with reproductive development in females, and migration often occurs during the pre‐reproductive stage of adults. The relationship between ovarian development and population status of the white‐backed planthopper Sogatella furcifera (Horváth) and the brown planthopper Nilaparvata lugens (Stål) was evaluated. Females of both species were captured in rice fields and light traps and then dissected in double‐season rice‐farming regions of southern China. The ovarian development of S. furcifera and N. lugens was divided into five levels, following previous studies. The population statuses of both species were examined based on the ovarian development of female adults caught in rice paddies. The ovarian development in N. lugens females caught in light traps mostly ranged from level I to level II, whereas that in S. furcifera females caught in light traps mostly ranged from level I to level III. During peak immigration, ovarian development in N. lugens females was mainly at level II, whereas that in S. furcifera females was mainly at level II and sporadically at level III. During peak emigration, both S. furcifera and N. lugens showed level I ovarian development. The temporal dynamics of ovarian development in light trap catches revealed that (i) significant emigration and partial immigration periods occur in S. furcifera, with ovarian development mainly at level I and sporadically from level II to level III and (ii) numerous immigrants of N. lugens were detected during sedentary and local breeding periods. The temporal dynamics of ovarian development provides more information than does the paddy population. Thus, this study proposes another method for pest forecasting, which is more precise and efficient than conventional forecasting methods such as light trap catching and monitoring population dynamics in rice fields.     

Divergence with gene flow in a population of thermophilic bacteria: a potential role for spatially varying selection

A fundamental goal of evolutionary biology is to understand how ecological diversity arises and is maintained in natural populations. We have investigated the contributions of gene flow and divergent selection to the distribution of genetic variation in an ecologically differentiated population of a thermophilic cyanobacterium (Mastigocladus laminosus) found along the temperature gradient of a nitrogen‐limited stream in Yellowstone National Park. For most loci sampled, gene flow appears to be sufficient to prevent substantial genetic divergence. However, one locus (rfbC) exhibited a comparatively low migration rate as well as other signatures expected for a gene experiencing spatially varying selection, including an excess of common variants, an elevated level of polymorphism and extreme genetic differentiation along the gradient. rfbC is part of an expression island involved in the production of the polysaccharide component of the protective envelope of the heterocyst, the specialized nitrogen‐fixing cell of these bacteria. SNP genotyping in the vicinity of rfbC revealed a ~5‐kbp region including a gene content polymorphism that is tightly associated with environmental temperature and therefore likely contains the target of selection. Two genes have been deleted both in the predominant haplotype found in the downstream region of White Creek and in strains from other Yellowstone populations of M. laminosus, which may result in the production of heterocysts with different envelope properties. This study implicates spatially varying selection in the maintenance of variation related to thermal performance at White Creek despite on‐going or recent gene flow.     

Bacteria associated with yellow lupine grown on a metal‐contaminated soil: in vitro screening and in vivo evaluation for their potential to enhance Cd phytoextraction

In order to stimulate selection for plant‐associated bacteria with the potential to improve Cd phytoextraction, yellow lupine plants were grown on a metal‐contaminated field soil. It was hypothesised that growing these plants on this contaminated soil, which is a source of bacteria possessing different traits to cope with Cd, could enhance colonisation of lupine with potential plant‐associated bacteria that could then be inoculated in Cd‐exposed plants to reduce Cd phytotoxicity and enhance Cd uptake. All cultivable bacteria from rhizosphere, root and stem were isolated and genotypically and phenotypically characterised. Many of the rhizobacteria and root endophytes produce siderophores, organic acids, indole‐3‐acetic acid (IAA) and aminocyclopropane‐1‐carboxylate (ACC) deaminase, as well as being resistant to Cd and Zn. Most of the stem endophytes could produce organic acids (73.8%) and IAA (74.3%), however, only a minor fraction (up to 0.7%) were Cd or Zn resistant or could produce siderophores or ACC deaminase. A siderophore‐ and ACC deaminase‐producing, highly Cd‐resistant Rhizobium sp. from the rhizosphere, a siderophore‐, organic acid‐, IAA‐ and ACC deaminase‐producing highly Cd‐resistant Pseudomonas sp. colonising the roots, a highly Cd‐ and Zn‐resistant organic acid and IAA‐producing Clavibacter sp. present in the stem, and a consortium composed of these three strains were inoculated into non‐exposed and Cd‐exposed yellow lupine plants. Although all selected strains possessed promising in vitro characteristics to improve Cd phytoextraction, inoculation of none of the strains (i) reduced Cd phytotoxicity nor (ii) strongly affected plant Cd uptake. This work highlights that in vitro characterisation of bacteria is not sufficient to predict the in vivo behaviour of bacteria in interaction with their host plants.     

Source-sink dynamics within a plant population: the impact of substrate and herbivory on palm demography

Site factors have frequently been shown to affect survival, growth, and reproduction in plant populations. The source-sink concept proposed by Pulliam is one way of integrating this spatial demographic variation into population models. Source-sink models describe a population where propagules from “source” habitats sustain less productive “sink” areas. We adapted this concept to model the population dynamics of the understory palm Chamaedorea radicalis on two substrates, rock outcrops and forest floor. In our model, sources and sinks correspond to fine-scale demographic structure within the population, rather than spatially discrete subpopulations as described in the Pulliam model. We constructed a stage-structured population matrix model that integrates the site-specific demography of individuals across two habitats types that are linked by migration. We then parameterized this model with field data from C. radicalis. To address whether observed differences in palm demography between rock outcrops and the forest floor were due to natural variation between microsites or due to differences in browsing intensity from free range livestock, we parameterized separate models based on the substrate-specific demography of protected, non-browsed palms and of palms exposed to burro browse. Results showed that herbivory reduced survival and fecundity on the forest floor, which in the absence of seed migration resulted in a projected decline of forest floor palms (sinks). However with seed dispersal, palms persisted and total population growth (both substrates) was projected to be positive, indicating that seed dispersal from non-browsed palms on rock outcrops (sources) was sufficient to sustain C. radicalis on the forest floor.     

肚倍蚜瘿内种群动态与虫瘿生长发育的关系

【目的】本研究拟对肚倍蚜Kaburagia rhusicola瘿内种群动态与虫瘿生长发育关系进行研究,为深入研究肚倍蚜的生物学特性奠定基础。【方法】在2014年4月27日至7月16日期间,在湖北竹山田间每间隔10 d随机选择长势基本一致的青麸杨,分别采集健康肚倍蚜虫瘿,每次采集样本30个。采用排水法测量虫瘿体积,之后将虫瘿解剖,取出瘿内蚜虫,置于培养皿内,采用四分法统计数量。对虫瘿体积增长与瘿内蚜虫种群变化进行了相关性分析。【结果】虫瘿体积增长与蚜虫种群数量增长之间呈极显著正相关(r=0.960,P0.01)。虫瘿体积与蚜虫种群数量增长分别呈现3个峰,即5月6日至5月16日、5月26日至6月6日和6月26日至7月6日。肚倍蚜瘿内密度变化的主要趋势是先降后升,中间有一个小的起伏。【结论】本研究表明虫瘿大小和瘿内蚜虫种群数量有关,虫瘿体积可用于评价干母的环境适合度。     

Interactions between a pollinating seed predator and its host plant: the role of environmental context within a population

Plant–insect interactions often are important for plant reproduction, but the outcome of these interactions may vary with environmental context. Pollinating seed predators have positive and negative effects on host plant reproduction, and the interaction outcome is predicted to vary with density or abundance of the partners. We studied the interaction between Silene stellata, an herbaceous perennial, and Hadena ectypa, its specialized pollinating seed predator. Silene stellata is only facultatively dependent upon H. ectypa for pollination because other nocturnal moth co‐pollinators are equally effective at pollen transfer. We hypothesized that for plants without conspecific neighbors, H. ectypa would have higher visitation rates compared to co‐pollinators, and the plants would experience lower levels of H. ectypa pollen deposition. We predicted similar oviposition throughout the study site but greater H. ectypa predation in the area without conspecific neighbors compared to plants embedded in a naturally high density area. We found that H. ectypa had consistently higher visitation than moth co‐pollinators in all host plant contexts. However, H. ectypa pollinator importance declined in areas with low conspecific density because of reduced pollen deposition, resulting in lower seed set. Conversely, oviposition was similar across the study site independent of host plant density. Greater likelihood of very high fruit predation combined with lower pollination by H. ectypa resulted in reduced S. stellata female reproductive success in areas with low conspecific density. Our results demonstrate local context dependency of the outcomes of pollinating seed predator interactions with conspecific host plant density within a population.     

Early prehistory of South America and population dynamics: Issues and hypotheses

People were in the Americas before, during, and immediately after the Last Glacial Maximum. Multiple data converge toward a deep chronology model for Homo genre exploration, dispersal, occupation, and settlement across the continent. South America is not an exception. This paper is an attempt to think of South America record in terms of population dynamics within a Paleolithic reflection: What are the anthropological implications of a longer and therefore slower peopling process? What modes of expansion, rhythms, adaptations, routes could be traced base especially in lithic records? What kind of archaeological manifestations should we expect in the different environments that make up an immense and highly diverse geography? What modes of technological continuity and change could be linked to these manifestations? Although further research is still needed to address these questions, our goal is to contribute to posing the problem in the most holistic way possible, linking climate, environment, and techno-cultural data within and beyond South America, in order to model how populations might have expanded and contracted at different periods throughout this subcontinent.     

Biocontrol of a perennial legume,Sesbania punicea,using a florivorous weevil,Trichapion lativentre: weed population dynamics with a scarcity of seeds

Summary The establishment in South Africa of a florivorous, apionid weevil, Trichapion lativentre, on Sesbania punicea, a leguminous weed of South American origin, has reduced seed production of the plants by >98%. Surveys of the age structure and density of plants in infestations of S. punicea throughout South Africa have shown that the rate of recruitment of seedlings has drastically declined within a few years in many areas, due to the weevils. However, there has unexpectedly not been a corresponding decline in the density of mature plants in extant infestations of S. punicea. In spite of this, T. lativentre has curtailed the rate of spread of the weed into uninvaded habitats and has impeded reinvasion into areas cleared of infestations by mechanical means or by another complimentary biocontrol agent.     

Seasonal dynamics, movements and the effects of experimentally increased female densities on a population of imaginal Calopteryx aequabilis (Odonata: Calopterygidae)

Abstract. 1. A population of Calopteryx aequabilis Say was sampled daily on a tributary of Canard River, Kings County, Nova Scotia, for the entire flight season in 1983 (29 May to 13 August), using capture–mark–recapture techniques.
2. 2701 sightings of 678 individuals were obtained along a 635 m segment of the stream. A maximum daily count of 174 imagines was reached on 11 June, after which the population gradually declined.
3. More females than males were marked but sexually mature males outnumbered females at the water on all but four days.
4. Immigration rather than local emergence accounted for a large proportion of the population after 20 June.
5. Females were consistently vagile; males were site–specific but occasionally moved long distances between captures.
6. Males and females first marked as tenerals became reproductively mature after about 5 days.
7. We experimentally increased female density on a partially isolated section of the study stream to see how increased female numbers affected the demographics and movement patterns of the population.
8. Residence times for introduced and resident females were similar. In contrast, during a similar introduction of males a year earlier, most introduced males disappeared quickly.
9. Males decreased the distance they travelled daily between captures, their total distance travelled and their range following the introduction, and females showed a tendency (not statistically significant) toward increased movements and dispersal, as predicted.     

Today and tomorrow: impact of climate change on aphid biology and potential consequences on their mutualism with ants

Recent studies about mutualism consider the complexity and versatility of the relationship, in addition to highlighting the importance of the cost/benefit balance between the two protagonists. Because species interactions are highly dependent on the environment, the climate changes foreseen for the coming years are expected to have significant impacts on the evolution of mutualistic interactions. Among mutualisms, the aphid–ant interaction is well documented, partly explained by the pest status of aphids. This literature review focuses on the impact of climate change (particularly atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and temperature) on aphid biology and the potential consequences with respect to their mutualistic interactions with ants. We provide an overview of the published reports concerned with the effects of temperature and carbon dioxide on aphids, for which a positive, a negative or no effect has been highlighted. We then discuss how climatic changes can alter four major components of aphid biology that are shaping their interaction with ants: (i) aphid population growth; (ii) aphid behaviour and mobility; (iii) honeydew production and composition; and (iv) semiochemistry. Finaly, we discuss the limitations of such studies on aphid–ant mutualism, as well as the information that is still needed to predict how climate change might impact this type of relationship.