Climate change and thermal comfort in Hong Kong

Thermal comfort is a major issue in cities and it is expected to change in the future due to the changing climate. The objective of this paper is to use the universal thermal comfort index (UTCI) to compare the outdoor thermal comfort in Hong Kong in the past (1971–2000) and the future (2046–2065 and 2081–2100). The future climate of Hong Kong was determined by the general circulation model (GCM) simulations of future climate scenarios (A1B and B1) established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Three GCMs were chosen, GISS-ER, GFDL-CM2.1 and MRI-CGCM2.3.2, based on their performance in simulating past climate. Through a statistical downscaling procedure, the future climatic variables were transferred to the local scale. The UTCI is calculated by four predicted climate variables: air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and solar radiation. After a normalisation procedure, future UTCI profiles for the urban area of Hong Kong were created. Comparing the past UTCI (calculated by observation data) and future UTCI, all three GCMs predicted that the future climate scenarios have a higher mode and a higher maximum value. There is a shift from ‘No Thermal Stress’ toward ‘Moderate Heat Stress’ and ‘Strong Heat Stress’ during the period 2046–2065, becoming more severe for the later period (2081–2100). Comparing the two scenarios, B1 exhibited similar projections in the two time periods whereas for A1B there was a significant difference, with both the mode and maximum increasing by 2 °C from 2046–2065 to 2081–2100.     

Climate change and the recent emergence of bluetongue in Europe

Bluetongue, a devastating disease of ruminants, has historically made only brief, sporadic incursions into the fringes of Europe. However, since 1998, six strains of bluetongue virus have spread across 12 countries and 800 km further north in Europe than has previously been reported. We suggest that this spread has been driven by recent changes in European climate that have allowed increased virus persistence during winter, the northward expansion of Culicoides imicola, the main bluetongue virus vector, and, beyond this vector's range, transmission by indigenous European Culicoides species - thereby expanding the risk of transmission over larger geographical regions. Understanding this sequence of events may help us predict the emergence of other vector-borne pathogens.     

Climate change effects on walnut pests in California

Increasing temperatures are likely to impact ectothermic pests of fruits and nuts. This paper aims to assess changes to pest pressure in California's US$0.7 billion walnut industry due to recent historic and projected future temperature changes. For two past (1950 and 2000) and 18 future climate scenarios (2041–2060 and 2080–2099; each for three General Circulation Models and three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios), 100 years of hourly temperature were generated for 205 locations. Degree‐day models were used to project mean generation numbers for codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.), navel orangeworm (Amyelois transitella Walker), two‐spotted spider mite (Tetranychus urticae Koch), and European red mite (Panonychus ulmi Koch). In the Central Valley, the number of codling moth generations predicted for degree days accumulated between April 1 and October 1 rose from 2–4 in 1950 to 3–5 among all future scenarios. Generation numbers increased from 10–18 to 14–24 for two‐spotted spider mite, from 9–14 to 14–20 for European red mite, and from 2–4 to up to 5 for navel orangeworm. Overall pest pressure can thus be expected to increase substantially. Our study did not include the possibility of higher winter survival rates, leading to higher initial pest counts in spring, or of extended pest development times in the summer, factors that are likely to exacerbate future pest pressure. On the other hand, initiation of diapause may prevent an extension of the season length for arthropods, and higher incidence of heat death in summer may constrain pest population sizes. More information on the impact of climate change on complex agroecological food webs and on the response of pests to high temperatures is needed for improving the reliability of projections.     

Climate change and evolving human diversity in Europe during the last glacial

A link between climate change and human evolution during the Pleistocene has often been assumed but rarely tested. At the macro-evolutionary level Foley showed for hominids that extinction, rather than speciation, correlates with environmental change as recorded in the deep sea record. Our aim is to examine this finding at a smaller scale and with high-resolution environmental and archaeological archives. Our interest is in changing patterns of human dispersal under shifting Pleistocene climates during the last glacial period in Europe. Selecting this time frame and region allows us to observe how two hominid taxa, Neanderthals and Crô-Magnons, adapted to climatic conditions during oxygen isotope stage 3. These taxa are representative of two hominid adaptive radiations, termed terrestrial and aquatic, which exhibited different habitat preferences but similar tolerances to climatic factors. Their response to changing ecological conditions was predicated upon their ability to extend their societies in space and time. We examine this difference further using a database of all available radiocarbon determinations from western Europe in the late glacial. These data act as proxies for population history, and in particular the expansion and contraction of regional populations as climate changed rapidly. Independent assessment of these processes is obtained from the genetic history of Europeans. The results indicate that climate affects population contraction rather than expansion. We discuss the consequences for genetic and cultural diversity which led to the legacy of the Ice Age: a single hominid species, globally distributed.     

Climate change effects on nitrogen loading from cultivated catchments in Europe: implications for nitrogen retention, ecological state of lakes and adaptation

Climate change might have profound effects on the nitrogen (N) dynamics in the cultivated landscape as well as on N transport in streams and the eutrophication of lakes. N loading from land to streams is expected to increase in North European temperate lakes due to higher winter rainfall and changes in cropping patterns. Scenario (IPCC, A2) analyses using a number of models of various complexity for Danish streams and lakes suggest an increase in runoff and N transport on an annual basis (higher during winter and typically lower during summer) in streams, a slight increase in N concentrations in streams despite higher losses in riparian wetlands, higher absolute retention of N in lakes (but not as percentage of loading), but only minor changes in lake water concentrations. However, when taking into account also a predicted higher temperature there is a risk of higher frequency and abundance of potentially toxic cyanobacteria in lakes and they may stay longer during the season. Somewhat higher risk of loss of submerged macrophytes at increased N and phosphorus (P) loading and a shift to dominance of small-sized fish preying upon the key grazers on phytoplankton may also enhance the risk of lake shifts from clear to turbid in a warmer North European temperate climate. However, it must be emphasised that the prediction of N transport and thus effects is uncertain as the prediction of regional precipitation and changes in land-use is uncertain. By contrast, N loading is expected to decline in warm temperate and arid climates. However, in warm arid lakes much higher N concentrations are currently observed despite reduced external loading. This is due to increased evapotranspiration leading to higher nutrient concentrations in the remaining water, but may also reflect a low-oxygen induced reduction of nitrification. Therefore, the critical N as well as P loading for good ecological state in lakes likely has to be lower in a future warmer climate in both north temperate and Mediterranean lakes. To obtain this objective, adaptation measures are required. In both climate zones the obvious methods are to change agricultural practices for reducing the loss of nutrients to surface waters, to improve sewage treatment and to reduce the storm-water nutrient runoff. In north temperate zones adaptations may also include re-establishment of artificial and natural wetlands, introduction of riparian buffer zones and re-meandering of channelised streams, which may all have a large impact on, not least, the N loading of lakes. In the arid zone, also restrictions on human use of water are urgently needed, not least on the quantity of water used for irrigation purposes.     

Climate change and ocean acidification effects on seagrasses and marine macroalgae

Although seagrasses and marine macroalgae (macro‐autotrophs) play critical ecological roles in reef, lagoon, coastal and open‐water ecosystems, their response to ocean acidification (OA) and climate change is not well understood. In this review, we examine marine macro‐autotroph biochemistry and physiology relevant to their response to elevated dissolved inorganic carbon [DIC], carbon dioxide [CO₂], and lower carbonate [CO₃^2?] and pH. We also explore the effects of increasing temperature under climate change and the interactions of elevated temperature and [CO₂]. Finally, recommendations are made for future research based on this synthesis. A literature review of >100 species revealed that marine macro‐autotroph photosynthesis is overwhelmingly C₃ (≥ 85%) with most species capable of utilizing HCO₃^?; however, most are not saturated at current ocean [DIC]. These results, and the presence of CO₂‐only users, lead us to conclude that photosynthetic and growth rates of marine macro‐autotrophs are likely to increase under elevated [CO₂] similar to terrestrial C₃ species. In the tropics, many species live close to their thermal limits and will have to up‐regulate stress‐response systems to tolerate sublethal temperature exposures with climate change, whereas elevated [CO₂] effects on thermal acclimation are unknown. Fundamental linkages between elevated [CO₂] and temperature on photorespiration, enzyme systems, carbohydrate production, and calcification dictate the need to consider these two parameters simultaneously. Relevant to calcifiers, elevated [CO₂] lowers net calcification and this effect is amplified by high temperature. Although the mechanisms are not clear, OA likely disrupts diffusion and transport systems of H⁺ and DIC. These fluxes control micro‐environments that promote calcification over dissolution and may be more important than CaCO₃ mineralogy in predicting macroalgal responses to OA. Calcareous macroalgae are highly vulnerable to OA, and it is likely that fleshy macroalgae will dominate in a higher CO₂ ocean; therefore, it is critical to elucidate the research gaps identified in this review.     

Climate change and its effects on terrestrial insects and herbivory patterns

Climate change and extreme weather events affect plants and animals and the direct impact of anthropogenic climate change has been documented extensively over the past years. In this review, I address the main consequences of elevated CO2 and O3 concentrations, elevated temperature and changes in rainfall patterns on the interactions between insects and their host plants. Because of their tight relationship with host plants, insect herbivores are expected to suffer direct and indirect effects of climate change through the changes experienced by their host plants, with consequences to population dynamics, community structure and ecosystem functioning.     

Climate change effects on animal and plant phylogenetic diversity in southern Africa

Much attention has been paid to the effects of climate change on species' range reductions and extinctions. There is however surprisingly little information on how climate change driven threat may impact the tree of life and result in loss of phylogenetic diversity (PD). Some plant families and mammalian orders reveal nonrandom extinction patterns, but many other plant families do not. Do these discrepancies reflect different speciation histories and does climate induced extinction result in the same discrepancies among different groups? Answers to these questions require representative taxon sampling. Here, we combine phylogenetic analyses, species distribution modeling, and climate change projections on two of the largest plant families in the Cape Floristic Region (Proteaceae and Restionaceae), as well as the second most diverse mammalian order in Southern Africa (Chiroptera), and an herbivorous insect genus (Platypleura) in the family Cicadidae to answer this question. We model current and future species distributions to assess species threat levels over the next 70 years, and then compare projected with random PD survival. Results for these animal and plant clades reveal congruence. PD losses are not significantly higher under predicted extinction than under random extinction simulations. So far the evidence suggests that focusing resources on climate threatened species alone may not result in disproportionate benefits for the preservation of evolutionary history.     

Climate change and rates of vagrancy of Siberian bird species to Europe

To assess whether increasing numbers of Siberian vagrants observed in Europe in recent autumns can be linked to climate change, we predicted changes in the climatic suitability of the breeding ranges of 46 Siberian bird species known to show vagrancy to Europe and compared these predictions with observed changes in recorded rates of autumn vagrancy across eight European countries during the last three decades. There was a positive correlation between predicted increase in breeding range and vagrancy rates. A positive impact of climate change on range and population size could promote vagrancy, while the increasing use of such alternative migration flyways could provide adaptive advantages in a changing environment.     

Climate change effects on above- and below-ground interactions in a dryland ecosystem

Individual species respond to climate change by altering their abundance, distribution and phenology. Less is known, however, about how climate change affects multitrophic interactions, and its consequences for food-web dynamics. Here, we investigate the effect of future changes in rainfall patterns on detritivore–plant–herbivore interactions in a semiarid region in southern Spain by experimentally manipulating rainfall intensity and frequency during late spring–early summer. Our results show that rain intensity changes the effect of below-ground detritivores on both plant traits and above-ground herbivore abundance. Enhanced rain altered the interaction between detritivores and plants affecting flower and fruit production, and also had a direct effect on fruit and seed set. Despite this finding, there was no net effect on plant reproductive output. This finding supports the idea that plants will be less affected by climatic changes than by other trophic levels. Enhanced rain also affected the interaction between detritivores and free-living herbivores. The effect, however, was apparent only for generalist and not for specialist herbivores, demonstrating a differential response to climate change within the same trophic level. The complex responses found in this study suggest that future climate change will affect trophic levels and their interactions differentially, making extrapolation from individual species'' responses and from one ecosystem to another very difficult.     

Climate: baselines for the biological effects of environmental change

Establishing biological baselines requires access to organisms which lived earlier in, or before, the present episode of anthropogenic change. Specimens of a bryozoan collected on Scott's Antarctic expeditions, and subsequently, provide clear evidence of recent increases in growth rate after 80 years of constancy.     

Climate change and the effects of temperature extremes on Australian flying-foxes

Little is known about the effects of temperature extremes on natural systems. This is of increasing concern now that climate models predict dramatic increases in the intensity, duration and frequency of such extremes. Here we examine the effects of temperature extremes on behaviour and demography of vulnerable wild flying-foxes (Pteropus spp.). On 12 January 2002 in New South Wales, Australia, temperatures exceeding 42 degrees C killed over 3500 individuals in nine mixed-species colonies. In one colony, we recorded a predictable sequence of thermoregulatory behaviours (wing-fanning, shade-seeking, panting and saliva-spreading, respectively) and witnessed how 5-6% of bats died from hyperthermia. Mortality was greater among the tropical black flying-fox, Pteropus alecto (10-13%) than the temperate grey-headed flying-fox, Pteropus poliocephalus (less than 1%), and young and adult females were more affected than adult males (young, 23-49%; females, 10-15%; males, less than 3%). Since 1994, over 30000 flying-foxes (including at least 24500 P. poliocephalus) were killed during 19 similar events. Although P. alecto was relatively less affected, it is currently expanding its range into the more variable temperature envelope of P. poliocephalus, which increases the likelihood of die-offs occurring in this species. Temperature extremes are important additional threats to Australian flying-foxes and the ecosystem services they provide, and we recommend close monitoring of colonies where temperatures exceeding 42.0 degrees C are predicted. The effects of temperature extremes on flying-foxes highlight the complex implications of climate change for behaviour, demography and species survival.     

Climate change in metacommunities: dispersal gives double-sided effects on persistence

Climate change is increasingly affecting the structure and dynamics of ecological communities both at local and at regional scales, and this can be expected to have important consequences for their robustness and long-term persistence. The aim of the present work is to analyse how the spatial structure of the landscape and dispersal patterns of species (dispersal rate and average dispersal distance) affects metacommunity response to two disturbances: (i) increased mortality during dispersal and (ii) local species extinction. We analyse the disturbances both in isolation and in combination. Using a spatially and dynamically explicit metacommunity model, we find that the effect of dispersal on metacommunity persistence is two-sided: on the one hand, high dispersal significantly reduces the risk of bottom-up extinction cascades following the local removal of a species; on the other hand, when dispersal imposes a risk to the dispersing individuals, high dispersal increases extinction risks, especially when dispersal is global. Large-bodied species with long generation times at the highest trophic level are particularly vulnerable to extinction when dispersal involves a risk. This suggests that decreasing the mortality risk of dispersing individuals by improving the quality of the habitat matrix may greatly increase the robustness of metacommunities.     

Climate change and thermal bioclimate in cities: impacts and options for adaptation in Freiburg, Germany

The concept of physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) has been applied to the analysis of thermal bioclimatic conditions in Freiburg, Germany, to show if days with extreme bioclimatic conditions will change and how extreme thermal conditions can be modified by changes in mean radiant temperature and wind speed. The results show that there will be an increase of days with heat stress (PET > 35°C) in the order of 5% (from 9.2% for 1961–1990) and a decrease of days with cold stress (PET < 0°C) from 16.4% to 3.8% per year. The conditions can be modified by measures modifying radiation and wind speed in the order of more than 10% of days per year by reducing global radiation in complex structures or urban areas.     

Climate change and Cognettia sphagnetorum: effects on carbon dynamics in organic soils

1. A microcosm experiment was performed to test the impacts of Cognettia sphagnetorum on carbon leaching in a cambic stagnohumic gley soil.
2. Leaching of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) was significantly enhanced by C.sphagnetorum, with the greatest effect being found in the upper, 0–6 cm, soil layers. The ratio of DOC to dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) in the leachate decreased in faunated systems, indicating that the enchytraeids were mobilizing carbon from organic matter with a low C to N ratio.
3. The vertical distribution of the enchytraeids had an effect on the production of DOC, and this vertical distribution is affected strongly by climate. It is proposed that increases in DOC found in a field soil-warming experiment with the same soil are largely a result of changes in the vertical distribution of these organisms.