How Phenological Variation Affects Species Spreading Speeds

In this paper, we develop a phenologically explicit reaction–diffusion model to analyze the spatial spread of a univoltine insect species. Our model assumes four explicit life stages: adult, two larval, and pupa, with a fourth, implicit, egg stage modeled as a time delay between oviposition and emergence as a larva. As such, our model is broadly applicable to holometabolous insects. To account for phenology (seasonal biological timing), we introduce four time-dependent phenological functions describing adult emergence, oviposition and larval conversion, respectively. Emergence is defined as the per-capita probability of an adult emerging from the pupal stage at a particular time. Oviposition is defined as the per-capita rate of adult egg deposition at a particular time. Two functions deal with the larva stage 1 to larva stage 2, and larva stage 2 to pupa conversion as per-capita rate of conversion at a particular time. This very general formulation allows us to accommodate a wide variety of alternative insect phenologies and lifestyles. We provide the moment-generating function for the general linearized system in terms of phenological functions and model parameters. We prove that the spreading speed of the linearized system is the same as that for nonlinear system. We then find explicit solutions for the spreading speed of the insect population for the limiting cases where (1) emergence and oviposition are impulsive (i.e., take place over an extremely narrow time window), larval conversion occurs at a constant rate, and larvae are immobile, (2) emergence and oviposition are impulsive (i.e., take place over an extremely narrow time window), larval conversion occurs at a constant rate starting at a delayed time from egg hatch, and larvae are immobile, and (3) emergence, oviposition, and larval conversion are impulsive. To consider other biological scenarios, including cases with emergence and oviposition windows of finite width as well as mobile larvae, we use numerical simulations. Our results provide a framework for understanding how phenology can interact with spatial spread to facilitate (or hinder) species expansion. This is an important area of research within the context of global change, which brings both new invasive species and range shifts for native species, all the while causing perturbations to species phenology that may impact the abilities of native and invasive populations to spread.     

Landscape-Level Phenology of a Threatened Butterfly: A GIS-Based Modeling Approach

Phenology of organismal development varies between growing seasons according to the weather and also varies within growing seasons across topoclimatic gradients. Combining these factors is necessary to predict landscape-level patterns of phenology and their consequences for population dynamics. We developed a model on a Geographic Information System (GIS) that predicts phenology of adult emergence of the threatened Bay checkerspot butterfly across complex terrain under variable weather. Physiological time was modeled by accumulated slope-specific direct insolation. Insolation sums through growing seasons were calculated for each cell of a digital terrain model (skipping over cloudy days) until a threshold for adult emergence was reached. Emergence times of adult butterflies for a given year were then mapped out across a 100-ha area. To generate predicted emergence curves for the population in a given year, these maps ofemergence times were then modified by incorporating microdistributions of postdiapause larvae. Different larval microdistributions changed both the magnitude and shape of emergence curves under the same yearly weather and could change mean population-wide emergence dates by 11 days. Reproductive success in this butterfly is strongly dependent on the timing of adult emergence, and these models provide insights into the effects of weather, topography, and population history on population dynamics. Because adult emergence phenology is often a key component of reproductive success for insects, understanding the components of phenological variation in space and time in complex terrain may provide insights into population dynamics for management of pests and conservation of rare species. Received 2 December 1997; accepted 24 March 1998.     

Combining stochastic models with experiments to understand the dynamics of monarch butterfly colonization

Stochastic models are of increasing importance in ecology but are usually only applied to observational data. Here we use a stochastic population model to combine experimental and observational data to understand the colonization of old fields by monarch butterflies Danaus plexippus. We experimentally tested for density dependence in oviposition rates when predators were excluded, and we measured predation rates under natural conditions. Significance tests on the resulting data showed that both oviposition and predation were density dependent but could not show how oviposition and mortality combine to determine egg densities in nature. We therefore used our data to calculate the Akaike Information Criterion to choose between a nested suite of stochastic models that differed in their oviposition and mortality terms. When we simply fit the models to the observational data, the best model assumed density independence in both oviposition and predation. When we instead first estimated the oviposition rate at low density from experimental data, however, the best model included density dependence in oviposition, and a model that included density dependence in both oviposition and predation performed nearly as well. This result is consistent with our experiments and suggests that experiments can enhance the usefulness of stochastic models in ecology.     

Impact of climate change on voltinism and prospective diapause induction of a global pest insect--Cydia pomonella (L.)

Global warming will lead to earlier beginnings and prolongation of growing seasons in temperate regions and will have pronounced effects on phenology and life-history adaptation in many species. These changes were not easy to simulate for actual phenologies because of the rudimentary temporal (season) and spatial (regional) resolution of climate model projections. We investigate the effect of climate change on the regional incidence of a pest insect with nearly worldwide distribution and very high potential for adaptation to season length and temperature--the Codling Moth, Cydia pomonella. Seasonal and regional climate change signals were downscaled to the hourly temporal scale of a pest phenology model and the spatial scale of pest habitats using a stochastic weather generator operating at daily scale in combination with a re-sampling approach for simulation of hourly weather data. Under future conditions of increased temperatures (2045-2074), the present risk of below 20% for a pronounced second generation (peak larval emergence) in Switzerland will increase to 70-100%. The risk of an additional third generation will increase from presently 0-2% to 100%. We identified a significant two-week shift to earlier dates in phenological stages, such as overwintering adult flight. The relative extent (magnitude) of first generation pupae and all later stages will significantly increase. The presence of first generation pupae and later stages will be prolonged. A significant decrease in the length of overlap of first and second generation larval emergence was identified. Such shifts in phenology may induce changes in life-history traits regulating the life cycle. An accordingly life-history adaptation in photoperiodic diapause induction to shorter day-length is expected and would thereby even more increase the risk of an additional generation. With respect to Codling Moth management, the shifts in phenology and voltinism projected here will require adaptations of plant protection strategies to maintain their sustainability.     

The demographic impact of extreme events: stochastic weather drives survival and population dynamics in a long-lived seabird

1. Most scenarios for future climate change predict increased variability and thus increased frequency of extreme weather events. To predict impacts of climate change on wild populations, we need to understand whether this translates into increased variability in demographic parameters, which would lead to reduced population growth rates even without a change in mean parameter values. This requires robust estimates of temporal process variance, for example in survival, and identification of weather covariates linked to interannual variability. 2. The European shag Phalacrocorax aristotelis (L.) shows unusually large variability in population size, and large-scale mortality events have been linked to winter gales. We estimated first-year, second-year and adult survival based on 43 years of ringing and dead recovery data from the Isle of May, Scotland, using recent methods to quantify temporal process variance and identify aspects of winter weather linked to survival. 3. Survival was highly variable for all age groups, and for second-year and adult birds process variance declined strongly when the most extreme year was excluded. Survival in these age groups was low in winters with strong onshore winds and high rainfall. Variation in first-year survival was not related to winter weather, and process variance, although high, was less affected by extreme years. A stochastic population model showed that increasing process variance in survival would lead to reduced population growth rate and increasing probability of extinction. 4. As in other cormorants, shag plumage is only partially waterproof, presumably an adaptation to highly efficient underwater foraging. We speculate that this adaptation may make individuals vulnerable to rough winter weather, leading to boom-and-bust dynamics, where rapid population growth under favourable conditions allows recovery from periodic large-scale weather-related mortality. 5. Given that extreme weather events are predicted to become more frequent, species such as shags that are vulnerable to such events are likely to exhibit stronger reductions in population growth than would be expected from changes in mean climate. Vulnerability to extreme events thus needs to be accounted for when predicting the ecological impacts of climate change.     

The population ecology of a natural population of the pierid butterfly Colias alexandra

Summary Key factor analysis techniques were used to examine factors determining the abundance of a population of non-pest Colias. The number of individuals entering each successive life stage in the sample population are summarized in life tables for 1975 to 1979. Survivorship to the adult is a relatively consistent proportionality (-x=1.2%, S.D.=1.14; 1975–1979). Factors resulting in reduced natality and, less importantly, mortality during larval diapause determine the population trends for C. alexandra. Egg mortality, pre-diapause larval mortality and postdiapause mortality contribute little to these trends. Possible key sources contributing to reduced natality are examined. Mortality of adults (including removal by collectors), poor weather conditions during the oviposition period, unseasonal snow or drought which affect nectar sources or oviposition sites are among the factors which cause reduced natality and result in population depression.     

Effect of extended diapause on evolution of resistance to transgenic Bacillus thuringiensis corn by northern corn rootworm (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

We develop a population genetics model for the northern corn rootworm, Diabrotica barberi Smith & Lawrence, to examine the effect of extended diapause on the evolution of resistance to transgenic Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) corn, Zea mays L. We model conditions found in the center of the extended diapause problem along the Minnesota-South Dakota-Iowa borders. The proportion of resistance alleles in eggs oviposited after 15 simulated years is used to measure the evolution of resistance. Sensitivity analysis indicates that although population genetics parameters (fecundity, initial egg density, density-dependent larval survival, random mating, insecticide mortality, and gene expression) affect the evolution of resistance, product characteristics (e.g., Bt toxin dose) and farmer management practices (e.g., insecticide use on refuge corn and rotation pattern) generally have a larger impact on the development of resistance. Exceptions to this generalization exist: 1) if the resistance allele is dominant, resistance evolves quickly; 2) the level of random mating is an important determinant of how quickly resistance evolves for a theoretical high dose product; and 3) small differences in insecticide mortality imply large differences in resistance for medium- and low-dose products with high levels of Bt corn adoption and a predominance of 1- and 2-yr corn rotations. When extended diapause spreads into a new area, it typically reduces resistance to Bt corn, assuming Bt corn is used only on continuous corn. In the study region where extended diapause already exists, increasing extended diapause (increasing hatch rates after two or three winters while holding total hatch constant), tends to increase resistance because the resistance increasing effect of the hatch rate after two winters dominates the resistance decreasing effect of the hatch rate after three winters. However, this is not always the case, because combinations of rotation pattern, toxin dose, and soil insecticide use exist for which the net effect of extended diapause decreases resistance. Results are interpreted as a combination of two offsetting effects. First, extended diapause injects older alleles with lower resistance allele frequencies into the breeding population, which slows resistance. Second, extended diapause speeds the population's recovery from perturbations (reduces the undercompensating density dependence of population dynamics), which accelerates resistance.     

Modelling evolutionarily stable strategies in oviposition site selection, with varying risks of predation and intraspecific competition

Many ovipositing mosquitoes, as well as other species, can detect biotic factors that affect fitness. However, a female mosquito seeking a high quality oviposition site (e.g. one with low risk of predation and competition to her progeny) must often balance the competing risk of increasing probability of mortality to herself while she continues to search, against increased probability of finding a high quality site. Such oviposition site selection may affect adult population size. We examined a female mosquito’s expected strategy of oviposition site selection under conditions of varying predator prevalence and adult mortality risk, by combining a detailed structured population model with a Markov chain implementation of the adult behavioural process. We used parameter values from the specific mosquito-predator system, Culiseta longiareolata-Notonecta maculata, although the overall results can be generalised to many mosquito species. Our model finds the evolutionarily stable strategy of oviposition site selection for different parameter combinations. Our model predicts that oviposition strategy does not vary smoothly with varying environmental risk of adult mortality, but that certain oviposition strategies become unstable at some parameter values. Mosquitoes will distribute their reproductive effort between breeding sites of varying predation risk only when adult mortality is low or larval competition high. Our model predicts that females will continue searching for predator-free pools, rather than oviposit in the first site encountered, regardless of the risk of mortality to the adult. The ecological basis for a reproductive strategy with alternative behaviours is important for understanding the effect of biotic factors on the population dynamics of mosquitoes, and for the development of biological control strategies, such as the dissemination of predator-cue chemicals.     

Influence of adult and egg predation on reproductive success of Epirrita autumnata (Lepidoptera: Geometridae)

We studied the effects of predation and oviposition activity on reproductive success of a late-season moth, Epirrita autumnata by exposing adult females and eggs to predation in their natural habitat in two successive years. Daily survival rates of adult females ranged from 0.4 to 0.8, average being 0.7. Most predation occurred during nights and was caused by harvestmen and other invertebrate predators. Avian predation did not have an effect on adult survival rates, most likely because of the lateness of E. autumnata flight season. Eggs were also preyed upon by invertebrate predators, although a notable proportion of egg mortality was attributable to causes other than predation. Daily survival rates of eggs were more than 0.99. Using modeling based on empirical data on eclosion of female adults, their oviposition behavior and survival rates of adults and eggs, the daily survival rates were translated into population level consequences. Adult predation was estimated to decrease reproductive success of non-outbreaking E. autumnata by 60–85 percent and egg mortality by 20–40 percent. Predation on adult lepidopterans is a mortality factor potentially as relevant as predation in any other life history stage and thus, should not be ignored in studies of population regulation.     

A Single Hot Event Stimulates Adult Performance but Reduces Egg Survival in the Oriental Fruit Moth,Grapholitha molesta

Climate warming is expected to increase the exposure of insects to hot events (involving a few hours at extreme high temperatures). These events are unlikely to cause widespread mortality but may modify population dynamics via impacting life history traits such as adult fecundity and egg hatching. These effects and their potential impact on population predictions are still largely unknown. In this study, we simulated a single hot event (maximum of 38°C lasting for 4 h) of a magnitude increasingly found under field conditions and examined its effect in the oriental fruit moth, Grapholitha molesta. This hot event had no impact on the survival of G. molesta adults, copulation periods or male longevity. However, the event increased female lifespan and the length of the oviposition period, leading to a potential increase in lifetime fecundity and suggesting hormesis. In contrast, exposure of males to this event markedly reduced the net reproductive value. Male heat treatment delayed the onset of oviposition in the females they mated with, as well as causing a decrease in the duration of oviposition period and lifetime fecundity. Both male and female stress also reduced egg hatch. Our findings of hormetic effects on female performance but concurrent detrimental effects on egg hatch suggest that hot events have unpredictable consequences on the population dynamics of this pest species with implications for likely effects associated with climate warming.     

Hydrologic and behavioral constraints on oviposition of stream insects: implications for adult dispersal

The supply of recruits plays an important role in plant and animal population dynamics, and may be governed by environmental and behavioral constraints on animals. Mated females of the mayfly genus Baetis alight on rocks protruding from streams, crawl under water and deposit a single egg mass under a rock. We surveyed oviposition and emergence of a bivoltine population of B. bicaudatus in multiple stream reaches in one high-altitude watershed in western Colorado over 3 years to establish qualitative patterns at a regional scale (entire watershed), and quantitative patterns over six generations at a local scale (one stream reach). We also measured characteristics of preferred oviposition substrates, performed experiments to test hypotheses about cues used by females to select oviposition sites, and measured mortality of egg masses in the field. Our goals were to determine whether: (1) hydrologic variation necessitated dispersal of females to find suitable oviposition sites; (2) the local supply of females could provide the supply of local recruits; and (3) local recruitment determined the local production of adults. The onset of oviposition corresponded with the decline of spring run-off, which differed dramatically among years and among sites within years. However, eggs appeared before any adults had emerged in 8 of 22 site-years, and adults emerged 2-3 weeks before any eggs were oviposited in 3 site-years. Furthermore, the size distribution of egg masses differed from that predicted by the size distribution of females that emerged from seven of nine stream reaches. Protruding rocks and eggs appeared earlier each summer in smaller tributaries than in larger mainstream reaches, suggesting that hydrologic and behavioral constraints on oviposition may force females to disperse away from their natal reach to oviposit, and possibly explain the predominantly upstream flight of Baetis females reported in other studies. Local oviposition rates in one third-order stream-reach increased rapidly as soon as substrates protruded from the water surface, and females preferred large rocks that became available early in the flight season. However, females oviposited on <10% of all available rocks, and <65% of preferred rocks as determined by an empirical model. These data indicated that the timing of appearance of suitable oviposition sites determined the phenology of local recruitment, but that preferred oviposition sites were not saturated. Thus, the magnitude of local recruitment was not limited by the absolute abundance of preferred oviposition sites. Only 22% of egg masses observed in the field suffered mortality during their embryonic development, and per capita Baetis egg mass mortality was significantly lower on rocks with higher densities of egg masses. Thus, we suspect that specialized oviposition behavior may reduce the probability of egg mortality, potentially compensating for the costs of dispersal necessary to locate suitable oviposition sites. Finally, the number of adults that emerged at one stream reach was independent of the number of egg masses oviposited over six generations of Baetis; and local recruitment was not a function of the number of adults of the previous generation that emerged locally. The patterns of oviposition and emergence of Baetis found in this study are consistent with the following hypotheses. Recruitment of eggs in a stream reach is not limited by the local supply of adults, but is a function of the regional supply of dispersing adults, which are constrained by the spatial and temporal distribution of preferred oviposition habitat. Furthermore, subsequent local production of adults is not a function of the supply of recruits, arguing for post-recruitment control of local populations by processes operating in the larval stage (e.g., predation, competition, dispersal, disturbance). Processes affecting larval and adult stages of Baetis act independently and at different scales, thereby decoupling local population dynamics of successive generations.     

Adult emergence phenology in checkerspot butterflies: the effects of macroclimate,topoclimate, and population history

The prediction of adult emergence times in insect populations can be greatly complicated by microclimatic gradients, especially in circumstances where distributions of juveniles along those gradients vary from year to year. To investigate adult emergence patterns in topographically heterogeneous habitats, we built a model of postdiapause development of the Bay checkerspot butterfly, Euphydryas editha bayensis. The model uses slope-specific insolation as the rate-controlling variable, and accounts for both solar exposure of the habitat and cloud cover. Instar-specific larval mass gains per unit of insolation were determined from mark-recapture experiments. A small correction for daily low temperatures was used to calibrate the model to five years of field data on larval mass. The model predicted mean mass of 90% of larval samples within 4 clear days over a 70–120 day growing season. The magnitude of spatial variation in emergence times across habitat slopes is greater than annual variation in emergence times due to yearly weather conditions. Historical variation (yearly shifts in larval distributions across slopes) is an important determinant of mean population emergence dates. All of these factors need to be considered in understanding adult emergence phenology in this butterfly and in other insects inhabiting heterogeneous thermal environments. Such an understanding can be useful in managing insect populations for both pest control and conservation.     

Population dynamics and structure of the neotropical bark bug Phloea subquadrata (Hemiptera: Phloeidae) on Plinia cauliflora (Myrtaceae)

Phloea subquadrata Spinola, 1837 (Pentatomoidea: Phloeidae) belongs to a small family of sap feeding bugs that live on tree trunks, on which they are cryptic because of their coloration and flat body. There are a few studies concerning phloeid anatomy and biology, but almost nothing is known about their ecology. In this study, population dynamics and structure of P. subquadrata on the host tree Plinia cauliflora (Myrtaceae) were investigated during 3 yr in a semideciduous forest in southeast Brazil. Nymphs and adults were active all year round, but the egg-laying season was mainly restricted to the warm, rainy season (September-March). Population density slightly increased at the end of this season because of reproduction. Population age structure changed markedly over time, with nymphs reaching the adult stage in the subsequent early-to-mid rainy season. Abiotic factors, such as rainfall and temperature, were correlated with female oviposition and population dynamics and phenology. Sex ratio was male-biased, not differing from 1:1 only during the adult recruitment period (October-January). Under dry weather conditions, phloeids were distributed closer to the base of the tree trunks when compared with rainy conditions. Our results suggest that seasonality and variations in weather conditions are important driving forces of population dynamics and phenology of P. subquadrata, as well as the microhabitat selection on host trees.     

Effects of cyromazine on reproduction and offspring development in Lucilia cuprina (Diptera: Calliphoridae).

The effects of cyromazine on reproduction and subsequent hatch and larval developmental in Lucilia cuprina (Wiedemann) were examined by feeding the compound in water to adult flies at concentrations up to 100 ppm. Cyromazine did not interfere with oviposition or hatch; however, subsequent larval development was strongly inhibited in a concentration-dependent manner.     

Winter weather affects asp viper Vipera aspis population dynamics through susceptible juveniles

Detailed studies on mammals and birds have shown that the effects of climate variation on population dynamics often depend on population composition, because weather affects different subsets of a population differently. It is presently unknown whether this is also true for ectothermic animals such as reptiles. Here we show such an interaction between weather and demography for an ectothermic vertebrate by examining patterns of survival and reproduction in six populations of a threatened European snake, the asp viper ( Vipera aspis ), over six to 17 years. Survival was lowest among juvenile and highest among adult snakes. The estimated annual probability for females to become gravid ranged from 26% to 60%, and was independent of whether females had reproduced in the year before or not. Variation in juvenile survival was strongly affected by winter temperature, whereas adult survival was unaffected by winter harshness. A matrix population model showed that winter weather affected population dynamics predominantly through variation in juvenile survival, although the sensitivity of the population growth rate to juvenile survival was lower than to adult survival. This study on ectothermic vipers revealed very similar patterns to those found in long-lived endothermic birds and mammals. Our results thus show that climate and life history can interact in similar ways across biologically very different vertebrate species, and suggest that these patterns may be very general.     

Use of prey and non-prey food by the ladybird beetle Eriopis connexa (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) under laboratory-rearing conditions

Prey for predators can fluctuate in abundance and in quality over time requiring predator strategies to cope with food shortage. Coccinellinae are often associated with sap-sucking pests that exhibit high population unpredictability such as aphids and psyllids. Eriopis connexa (Germar) (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) is a predator with potential for biological control, especially a well-studied population which is resistant to pyrethroids used to control insect defoliators. Both larvae and adult E. connexa were provided ad libitum prey and non-prey foods (pollen and honey water solution) at increasing intervals from 1 to 10 days. Neonate larvae of E. connexa required eating prey daily to develop into adults. However, non-prey food such as honey water solution did prolong larval and adult survival but neither fulfilled larval development nor adult reproduction. Honey water solution promoted 100% adult survival up to 25 days in the adult stage without prey with oviposition returning after daily feeding on prey. Females subjected to increased feeding intervals over four days reduced oviposition and lived longer, but 10-day feeding intervals correlated with risk to adult survival. These results indicate the importance of non-food sources in E. connexa maintenance and the ability of larvae and adult females to compensate for prey scarcity.     

The influence of leaf age on the oviposition preference of Chrysophtharta bimaculata (Olivier) and the establishment of neonates

1 The degree of discrimination shown by a herbivore when selecting oviposition sites has been suggested as a key factor to understanding herbivore population dynamics. Chrysophtharta bimaculata (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) is a primary pest of Tasmanian eucalypt forests and can cause severe defoliation. Previous work suggests that females show discrimination when selecting oviposition sites. Our aim was to test the degree of oviposition discrimination exhibited by C. bimaculata with regards to leaf toughness, a character that is critical to neonate survival. 2 We conducted an experiment examining the leaf toughness critical for neonate survival and found that significant larval mortality occurs above a toughness of 46.9 g. We also determined that the maximum toughness of leaves upon which larvae established in the field was 48.2 g, supporting the laboratory result. 3 Field surveys showed that although the majority of eggs were laid on leaves suitable for larval establishment, many eggs were laid on unsuitable, tougher leaves. However, all eggs were normally placed within 20 cm of suitable leaves and glasshouse trials demonstrated the neonates could move this distance without mortality occurring. 4 We conclude that egg batch distribution and larval performance of C. bimaculata will influence the population dynamics of C. bimaculata in two ways. Firstly, the availability of expanding/newly expanding leaves of eucalypt hosts will determine larval carrying capacity. Secondly, at a more localized level, the deposition of large numbers of egg batches on both suitable and unsuitable leaves followed by successful neonate migration increases the risk of resource depletion and poor larval development.     

Dynamic larval dispersal can mediate the response of marine metapopulations to multiple climate change impacts

Climate change is having multiple impacts on marine species characterized by sedentary adult and pelagic larval phases, from increasing adult mortality to changes in larval duration and ocean currents. Recent studies have shown impacts of climate change on species persistence through direct effects on individual survival and development, but few have considered the indirect effects mediated by ocean currents and species traits such as pelagic larval duration. We used a density-dependent and stochastic metapopulation model to predict how changes in adult mortality and dynamic connectivity can affect marine metapopulation stability. We analyzed our model with connectivity data simulated from a biophysical ocean model of the northeast Pacific coast forced under current (1998–2007) and future (2068–2077) climate scenarios in combination with scenarios of increasing adult mortality and decreasing larval duration. Our results predict that changes of ocean currents and larval duration mediated by climate change interact in complex and opposing directions to shape local mortality and metapopulation connectivity with synergistic effects on regional metapopulation stability: while species with short larval duration are most sensitive to temperature-driven reduction in larval duration, the response of species with longer larval duration are mostly mediated by changes in both the mean and variance of larval connectivity driven by ocean currents. Our results emphasize the importance of considering the spatiotemporal structure of connectivity in order to predict how the multiple effects of climate change will impact marine populations.     

A spatially explicit model simulating western corn rootworm (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) adaptation to insect-resistant maize

A stochastic spatially explicit computer model is described that simulates the adaptation by western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte, to rootworm-resistance traits in maize. The model reflects the ecology of the rootworm in much of the corn belt of the United States. It includes functions for crop development, egg and larval mortality, adult emergence, mating, egg laying, mortality and dispersal, and alternative methods of rootworm control, to simulate the population dynamics of the rootworm. Adaptation to the resistance trait is assumed to be controlled by a monogenic diallelic locus, whereby the allele for adaptation varies from incompletely recessive to incompletely dominant, depending on the efficacy of the resistance trait. The model was used to compare the rate at which the adaptation allele spread through the population under different nonresistant maize refuge deployment scenarios, and under different levels of crop resistance. For a given refuge size, the model indicated that placing the nonresistant refuge in a block within a rootworm-resistant field would be likely to delay rootworm adaptation rather longer than planting the refuge in separate fields in varying locations. If a portion of the refuge were to be planted in the same fields or in-field blocks each year, rootworm adaptation would be delayed substantially. Rootworm adaptation rates are also predicted to be greatly affected by the level of crop resistance, because of the expectation of dependence of functional dominance on dose. If the dose of the insecticidal protein in the maize is sufficiently high to kill >90% of heterozygotes and approximately 100% of susceptible homozygotes, the trait is predicted to be much more durable than if the dose is lower. A partial sensitivity analysis showed that parameters relating to adult dispersal affected the rate of pest adaptation. Partial validation of the model was achieved by comparing output of the model with field data on population dynamics, and with field data documenting rootworm adaptation to cyclodienes and organophosphates.     

Modeling mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) oviposition

Mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae), is a significant forest disturbance agent with a widespread distribution in western North America. Population success is influenced by temperatures that drive phenology and ultimately the adult emergence synchrony required to mass attack and kill host trees during outbreaks. In addition to lifestage‐specific developmental rates and thresholds, oviposition timing can be a source of variance in adult emergence synchrony, and is a critical aspect of mountain pine beetle phenology. Adaptation to local climates has resulted in longer generation times in southern compared to northern populations in common gardens, and the role of oviposition rate in these differences is unclear. Oviposition rates and fecundity in a northern population have been described, although data are lacking for southern populations. We assessed southern mountain pine beetle oviposition rates and fecundity in a range of temperatures using a non‐destructive technique that included frequent X‐ray imaging. We found that oviposition rate and fecundity vary independently such that a female with high oviposition rate did not necessarily have high fecundity and vice versa. Observed fecundity within the 30‐day experimental period was lowest at the lowest temperature, although estimated potential fecundity did not differ among temperatures. Females at varying temperatures have the potential to lay similar numbers of eggs, although it will take longer at lower temperatures. Southern mountain pine beetle reared in Pinus strobiformis Engelm. (Pinaceae) had a higher upper threshold for oviposition, a similar lower threshold, and slightly greater potential fecundity compared to a northern population reared in Pinus contorta Douglas. A comparison of modeled oviposition rates between the two populations, which could be influenced by host tree, suggests that differences in oviposition rate do not explain observed differences in total generation time. Our oviposition model will facilitate development of a phenology model for southern mountain pine beetle populations.