气候变化下旱区农业生态系统的可持续性

农业生产是将自然资源不断转化为农产品的过程.简单的说就是将阳光、空气、水和土壤等无机资源转化为可以供人类消费的有机产物.农业生态系统必须对全球气候变化、市场竞争、自然环境的恶化、经济等政策法规和人民的需求等因素做出灵活的应对策略,同时还要保证自然生态系统的稳定性.在发展中国家,有超过20 亿的人口每天收入低于2 美元,他们收入中绝大部分都用于解决温饱.这些人大部分生活在干旱、半干旱地区,并以农业生产作为生活的主要来源.由于这些地区水资源匮乏、土壤贫瘠,粮食安全问题一直是该地区人类生存的关键.中澳两国都把干旱、半干旱地区的农牧业发展作为研究的重点.两国的专家都致力于恢复和维护干旱半干旱地区脆弱的农业生态系统.气候变化正在使农业生态系统可持续发展面临严峻挑战.因此,迫切需要农学,生态学,环境学,社会经济学等多学科的共同发展和融合解决这一问题.     

Response of isoprene emission to ambient CO2 changes and implications for global budgets

We explore the potential role of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) on isoprene emissions using a global coupled land–atmosphere model [Community Atmospheric Model–Community Land Model (CAM–CLM)] for recent (year 2000, 365 ppm CO₂) and future (year 2100, 717 ppm CO₂) conditions. We incorporate an empirical model of observed isoprene emissions response to both ambient CO₂ concentrations in the long‐term growth environment and short‐term changes in intercellular CO₂ concentrations into the MEGAN biogenic emission model embedded within the CLM. Accounting for CO₂ inhibition has little impact on predictions of present‐day global isoprene emission (increase from 508 to 523 Tg C yr^?1). However, the large increases in future isoprene emissions typically predicted in models, which are due to a projected warmer climate, are entirely offset by including the CO₂ effects. Projected global isoprene emissions in 2100 drop from 696 to 479 Tg C yr^?1 when this effect is included, maintaining future isoprene sources at levels similar to present day. The isoprene emission response to CO₂ is dominated by the long‐term growth environment effect, with modulations of 10% or less due to the variability in intercellular CO₂ concentration. As a result, perturbations to isoprene emissions associated with changes in ambient CO₂ are largely aseasonal, with little diurnal variability. Future isoprene emissions increase by more than a factor of two in 2100 (to 1242 Tg C yr^?1) when projected changes in vegetation distribution and leaf area density are included. Changing land cover and the role of nutrient limitation on CO₂ fertilization therefore remain the largest source of uncertainty in isoprene emission prediction. Although future projections suggest a compensatory balance between the effects of temperature and CO₂ on isoprene emission, the enhancement of isoprene emission due to lower ambient CO₂ concentrations did not compensate for the effect of cooler temperatures over the last 400 thousand years of the geologic record (including the Last Glacial Maximum).     

The evolutionary consequence of the individualistic response to climate change

The Quaternary fossil record has abundant evidence for ecologically nonanalogue communities made up of combinations of modern taxa not seen in sympatry today. A brief review of the literature detailing these nonanalogue communities is given with a discussion of their various proposed causes. The individualistic, Gleasonian, response of species to climate and environmental change is favoured by many. The degree to which communities are nonanalogue appears to increase with greater time depth, and this progressive process is a necessary outcome of the individualistic response of species to climate change through time. In addition, it is noted that populations within species, as well as the species as a whole, respond individualistically. This paper proposes that many elements of nonanalogue communities are extinct populations, which may explain their environmentally anomalous combinations. These extinct populations are, by definition, lineages without descendents. It is further proposed that the differential extinction of populations, as a result of continuous ecological reassembly, could amount to a significant evolutionary phenomenon.     

Modelling the effects of climate change on an acidic upland stream

Most modelling studies of soil and surface water recovery from acidification assume a constant influence of climate over the simulation period. Given the likelihood of future climate change, and recent identification of links between climatic fluctuations and surface water trends on decadal time scales, an attempt is made to simulate a number of climate-related effects on the recovery of an acidified stream in mid-Wales. Empirical relationships were derived to model past and future variations in (i) runoff, as a function of rainfall and temperature; (ii) stream chloride concentration and sea-salt deposition, as a function of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI); and (iii) stream dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration, as a function of summer temperatures and sulphur deposition. Incorporating these relationships in the MAGIC dynamic model reproduced a significant part of the observed variation in streamwater chemistry. Current scenarios of rising UK temperature and NAOI, and falling rainfall and acid deposition, were used to forecast effects of climate change on soil and water recovery from acidification. Results suggest that increasing DOC would have a significant negative impact on soil recovery, with elevated organic acidity lowering soil water pH and severely depleting soil base saturation. The resulting increase in soil base cation export would, however, have a positive impact on streamwater recovery. For increased sea-salt deposition, effects are essentially the opposite; increased base cation inputs enhance the recovery of soil base saturation, but displace acidity to the stream. However, simulated effects of raising DOC considerably outweighed those of increased sea-salt deposition. It is argued that greater consideration of these, and other, climatic effects on biogeochemical cycles needs to be taken when predicting the recovery of soils and surface waters from acidification.     

Projected changes in elevational distribution and flight performance of montane Neotropical hummingbirds in response to climate change

The hovering flight of hummingbirds is one of the most energetically demanding forms of animal locomotion and is influenced by both atmospheric oxygen availability and air density. Montane Neotropical hummingbirds are expected to shift altitudinally upwards in response to climate change to track their ancestral climatic regime, which is predicted to influence their flight performance. In this study, we use the climate envelope approach to estimate upward elevational shifts for five Andean hummingbird species under two climate change scenarios. We then use field‐based data on hummingbird flight mechanics to estimate the resulting impact of climate change on aerodynamic performance in hovering flight. Our results show that in addition to significant habitat loss and fragmentation, projected upwards elevational shifts vary between 300 and 700 m, depending on climate change scenario and original mean elevation of the target species. Biomechanical analysis indicates that such upwards elevational shifts would yield a～2–5° increase in wing stroke amplitude with no substantial effect on wingbeat frequency. Overall, the physiological impact of elevational shifts of <1000 m in response to climate change is likely to be small relative to other factors such as habitat loss, changes in floristic composition, and increased interspecific competition.     

Geographic variation in growth response of Douglas‐fir to interannual climate variability and projected climate change

We used 179 tree ring chronologies of Douglas‐fir [Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco] from the International Tree‐Ring Data Bank to study radial growth response to historical climate variability. For the coastal variety of Douglas‐fir, we found positive correlations of ring width with summer precipitation and temperature of the preceding winter, indicating that growth of coastal populations was limited by summer dryness and that photosynthesis in winter contributed to growth. For the interior variety, low precipitation and high growing season temperatures limited growth. Based on these relationships, we chose a simple heat moisture index (growing season temperature divided by precipitation of the preceding winter and current growing season) to predict growth response for the interior variety. For 105 tree ring chronologies or 81% of the interior samples, we found significant linear correlations with this heat moisture index, and moving correlation functions showed that the response was stable over time (1901–1980). We proceeded to use those relationships to predict regional growth response under 18 climate change scenarios for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s with unexpected results: for comparable changes in heat moisture index, the most southern and outlying populations of Douglas‐fir in Mexico showed the least reduction in productivity. Moderate growth reductions were found in the southern United States, and strongly negative response in the central Rocky Mountains. Growth reductions were further more pronounced for high than for low elevation populations. Based on regional differences in the slope of the growth–climate relationship, we propose that southern populations are better adapted to drought conditions and could therefore contain valuable genotypes for reforestation under climate change. The results support the view that climate change may impact species not just at the trailing edges but throughout their range due to genetic adaptation of populations to local environments.     

Monitoring biogeographical response to climate change: The potential role of aeropalynology

To test models predicting biological reponse to future climate change, it is essential to find climatically-sensitive, easily monitored biological indicators that respond to climate change. Routine monitoring of airborne pollen, now undertaken on a near-global basis, could be adapted for this purpose. Analysis of spatial and seasonal variations in pollen levels in New Zealand suggests that the timing of onset and peak abundance of certain pollen taxa should be explored as possible bio-indicators of climate change. The onset of the airborne grass pollen season during the summer of 1988/89 varied consistently with latitude, and hence temperature, with the season in Southland commencing 8--9 days after Northland. However, these patterns were only apparent after sampling sites were separated into two groups reflecting predominantly urban or rural pollen sources. A less consistent north to south trend was apparent in the frequency of high (30 grains/m³) grass pollen levels, with high levels frequent in North Island localities in November, December and January and in southern localities during December and January. The successive onset of pollen seasons for the principal tree species during the spring-to-early summer warming interval may also be a useful bio-indicator of climate change. As well as assisting forecasts of the onset of the pollinosis season, these biogeographical patterns, reflecting climatic variation with latitude, suggest that routine aeropalynological monitoring might provide early signals of vegetation response to climate change. These conclusions are supported by recent investigations of long-term aeropalynological datasets in Europe that indicate earlier onset of pollen seasons in response to recent global warming.     

Stream ecosystem responses to the 2007 spring freeze in the southeastern United States: unexpected effects of climate change

Some expected changes in climate resulting from human greenhouse gas emissions are clear and well documented, but others may be harder to predict because they involve extreme weather events or heretofore unusual combinations of weather patterns. One recent example of unusual weather that may become more frequent with climate change occurred in early spring 2007 when a large Arctic air mass moved into the eastern United States following a very warm late winter. In this paper, we document effects of this freeze event on Walker Branch, a well‐studied stream ecosystem in eastern Tennessee. The 2007 spring freeze killed newly grown leaf tissues in the forest canopy, dramatically increasing the amount of light reaching the stream. Light levels at the stream surface were sustained at levels considerably above those normal for the late spring and summer months due to the incomplete recovery of canopy leaf area. Increased light levels caused a cascade of ecological effects in the stream beginning with considerably higher (two–three times) rates of gross primary production (GPP) during the late spring and summer months when normally low light levels severely limit stream GPP. Higher rates of stream GPP in turn resulted in higher rates of nitrate (NO₃^?) uptake by the autotrophic community and lower NO₃^? concentrations in stream water. Higher rates of stream GPP in summer also resulted in higher growth rates of a dominant herbivore, the snail Elimia clavaeformis. Typically, during summer months net NO₃^? uptake and snail growth rates are zero to negative; however, in 2007 uptake and growth were maintained at moderate levels. These results show how changes in forest vegetation phenology can have dramatic effects on stream productivity at multiple trophic levels and on nutrient cycling as a result of tight coupling of forest and stream ecosystems. Thus, climate change‐induced changes in canopy structure and phenology may lead to large effects on stream ecosystems in the future.     

European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern

Global climate change impacts can already be tracked in many physical and biological systems; in particular, terrestrial ecosystems provide a consistent picture of observed changes. One of the preferred indicators is phenology, the science of natural recurring events, as their recorded dates provide a high-temporal resolution of ongoing changes. Thus, numerous analyses have demonstrated an earlier onset of spring events for mid and higher latitudes and a lengthening of the growing season. However, published single-site or single-species studies are particularly open to suspicion of being biased towards predominantly reporting climate change-induced impacts. No comprehensive study or meta-analysis has so far examined the possible lack of evidence for changes or shifts at sites where no temperature change is observed. We used an enormous systematic phenological network data set of more than 125 000 observational series of 542 plant and 19 animal species in 21 European countries (1971–2000). Our results showed that 78% of all leafing, flowering and fruiting records advanced (30% significantly) and only 3% were significantly delayed, whereas the signal of leaf colouring/fall is ambiguous. We conclude that previously published results of phenological changes were not biased by reporting or publication predisposition: the average advance of spring/summer was 2.5 days decade⁻¹ in Europe. Our analysis of 254 mean national time series undoubtedly demonstrates that species' phenology is responsive to temperature of the preceding months (mean advance of spring/summer by 2.5 days°C⁻¹, delay of leaf colouring and fall by 1.0 day°C⁻¹). The pattern of observed change in spring efficiently matches measured national warming across 19 European countries (correlation coefficient r =−0.69, P <0.001).     

Modelling the recent historical impacts of atmospheric CO2 and climate change on Mediterranean vegetation

During the past century, annual mean temperature has increased by 0.75°C and precipitation has shown marked variation throughout the Mediterranean basin. These historical climate changes may have had significant, but presently undefined, impacts on the productivity and structure of sclerophyllous shrubland, an important vegetation type in the region. We used a vegetation model for this functional type to examine climate change impacts, and their interaction with the concurrent historical rise in atmospheric CO₂. Using only climate and soil texture as data inputs, model predictions showed good agreement with observations of seasonal and regional variation in leaf and canopy physiology, net primary productivity (NPP), leaf area index (LAI) and soil water. Model simulations for shrubland sites indicated that potential NPP has risen by 25% and LAI by 7% during the past century, although the absolute increase in LAI was small. Sensitivity analysis suggested that the increase in atmospheric CO₂ since 1900 was the primary cause of these changes, and that simulated climate change alone had negative impacts on both NPP and LAI. Effects of rising CO₂ were mediated by significant increases in the efficiency of water‐use in NPP throughout the region, as a consequence of the direct effect of CO₂ on leaf gas exchange. This increase in efficiency compensated for limitation of NPP by drought, except in areas where drought was most severe. However, while water was used more efficiently, total canopy water loss rose slightly or remained unaffected in model simulations, because increases in LAI with CO₂ counteracted the effects of reduced stomatal conductance on transpiration. Model simulations for the Mediterranean region indicate that the recent rise in atmospheric CO₂ may already have had significant impacts on productivity, structure and water relations of sclerophyllous shrub vegetation, which tended to offset the detrimental effects of climate change in the region.     

Modelling carbon balances of coastal arctic tundra under changing climate

Rising air temperatures are believed to be hastening heterotrophic respiration (R_h) in arctic tundra ecosystems, which could lead to substantial losses of soil carbon (C). In order to improve confidence in predicting the likelihood of such loss, the comprehensive ecosystem model ecosys was first tested with carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes measured over a tundra soil in a growth chamber under various temperatures and soil‐water contents (θ). The model was then tested with CO₂ and energy fluxes measured over a coastal arctic tundra near Barrow, Alaska, under a range of weather conditions during 1998–1999. A rise in growth chamber temperature from 7 to 15 °C caused large, but commensurate, rises in respiration and CO₂ fixation, and so no significant effect on net CO₂ exchange was modelled or measured. An increase in growth chamber θ from field capacity to saturation caused substantial reductions in respiration but not in CO₂ fixation, and so an increase in net CO₂ exchange was modelled and measured. Long daylengths over the coastal tundra at Barrow caused an almost continuous C sink to be modelled and measured during most of July (2–4 g C m^?2 d^?1), but shortening daylengths and declining air temperatures caused a C source to be modelled and measured by early September (～1 g C m^?2 d^?1). At an annual time scale, the coastal tundra was modelled to be a small C sink (4 g C m^?2 y^?1) during 1998 when average air temperatures were 4 °C above normal, and a larger C sink (16 g C m^?2 y^?1) during 1999 when air temperatures were close to long‐term normals. During 100 years under rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration (C_a), air temperature and precipitation driven by the IS92a emissions scenario, modelled R_h rose commensurately with net primary productivity (NPP) under both current and elevated rates of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition, so that changes in soil C remained small. However, methane (CH₄) emissions were predicted to rise substantially in coastal tundra with IS92a‐driven climate change (from ～20 to ～40 g C m^?2 y^?1), causing a substantial increase in the emission of CO₂ equivalents. If the rate of temperature increase hypothesized in the IS92a emissions scenario had been raised by 50%, substantial losses of soil C (～1 kg C m^?2) would have been modelled after 100 years, including additional emissions of CH₄.     

The importance of phylogeny to the study of phenological response to global climate change

Climate change has resulted in major changes in the phenology—i.e. the timing of seasonal activities, such as flowering and bird migration—of some species but not others. These differential responses have been shown to result in ecological mismatches that can have negative fitness consequences. However, the ways in which climate change has shaped changes in biodiversity within and across communities are not well understood. Here, we build on our previous results that established a link between plant species'' phenological response to climate change and a phylogenetic bias in species'' decline in the eastern United States. We extend a similar approach to plant and bird communities in the United States and the UK that further demonstrates that climate change has differentially impacted species based on their phylogenetic relatedness and shared phenological responses. In plants, phenological responses to climate change are often shared among closely related species (i.e. clades), even between geographically disjunct communities. And in some cases, this has resulted in a phylogenetically biased pattern of non-native species success. In birds, the pattern of decline is phylogenetically biased but is not solely explained by phenological response, which suggests that other traits may better explain this pattern. These results illustrate the ways in which phylogenetic thinking can aid in making generalizations of practical importance and enhance efforts to predict species'' responses to future climate change.     

The future of terrestrial mammals in the Mediterranean basin under climate change

The Mediterranean basin is considered a hotspot of biological diversity with a long history of modification of natural ecosystems by human activities, and is one of the regions that will face extensive changes in climate. For 181 terrestrial mammals (68% of all Mediterranean mammals), we used an ensemble forecasting approach to model the future (approx. 2100) potential distribution under climate change considering five climate change model outputs for two climate scenarios. Overall, a substantial number of Mediterranean mammals will be severely threatened by future climate change, particularly endemic species. Moreover, we found important changes in potential species richness owing to climate change, with some areas (e.g. montane region in central Italy) gaining species, while most of the region will be losing species (mainly Spain and North Africa). Existing protected areas (PAs) will probably be strongly influenced by climate change, with most PAs in Africa, the Middle East and Spain losing a substantial number of species, and those PAs gaining species (e.g. central Italy and southern France) will experience a substantial shift in species composition.     

Impact of global warming on the tree species composition of boreal forests in Finland and effects on emissions of isoprenoids

This study aims to identify how climate change may influence total emissions of monoterpene and isoprene from boreal forest canopies. The whole of Finland is assumed to experience an annual mean temperature (T) increase of 4 °C and a precipitation increase of 10% by the year 2100. This will increase forest resources throughout the country. At the same time, the proportions of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and Norway spruce (Picea abies) in southern Finland (60°≤ latitude < 65°N) will be reduced from the current 40–50% to less than 10–20%, with increased dominance of birches (Betula pendula and Betula pubescens). In northern Finland (65°≤ latitude < 70°N), the proportions of Norway spruce and Scots pine will be balanced at a level of about 40% as the result of an increase in Norway spruce from the current 21% to 37% and a concurrent reduction in Scots pine from 63% to 40%. The proportion of birches is predicted to increase from the current 17% to 23%, but these will become the dominant species only on the most fertile sites. Total mean emissions of monoterpene by Scots pine will be reduced by 80% in southern Finland, but will increase by 62% in the north. Emissions from Norway spruce canopies will increase by 4% in the south but by 428% in the north, while those from birch canopies will increase by about 300% and 113%, respectively. Overall emissions of monoterpene over the whole country amount to about 950 kg km^?2 y^?1 under current temperature conditions and will increase by 17% to 1100 kg km^?2 y^?1 with elevated temperature and precipitation, mainly because of an increase at northern latitudes. Under current conditions, emissions of isoprene follow the spatial distribution of spruce canopies (the only isoprene‐emitting tree species that forms forests in Finland) with four times higher emissions in the south than in the north. The elevated temperature and the changes in the areal distribution of Norway spruce will result in increases in isoprene emissions of about 37% in southern Finland and 435% in northern Finland. Annual mean isoprene emissions from Norway spruce canopies over the whole country will increase by about 60% up to the year 2100.     

Monoterpene emissions from rubber trees (Hevea brasiliensis) in a changing landscape and climate: chemical speciation and environmental control

Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) have important roles in ecophysiology and atmospheric chemistry at a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Tropical regions are a major global source of VOC emissions and magnitude and chemical speciation of VOC emissions are highly plant-species specific. Therefore it is important to study emissions from dominant species in tropical regions undergoing large-scale land-use change, for example, rubber plantations in South East Asia. Rubber trees ( Hevea brasiliensis ) are strong emitters of light-dependent monoterpenes. Measurements of emissions from leaves were made in the dry season in February 2003 and at the beginning of the wet season in May 2005. Major emitted compounds were sabinene, α -pinene and β -pinene, but β -ocimene and linalool also contributed significantly at low temperature and light. Cis -ocimene was emitted with a circadian course independent of photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) and temperature changes with a maximum in the middle of the day. Total isoprenoid VOC emission potential at the beginning of the wet season (94 μg gdw⁻¹ h⁻¹) was almost two orders of magnitude higher than measured in the dry season (2 μg g dw⁻¹ h⁻¹). Composition of total emissions changed with increasing temperature or PAR ramps imposed throughout a day. As well as light and temperature, there was evidence that assimilation rate was also a factor contributing to seasonal regulating emission potential of monoterpenes from rubber trees. Results presented here contribute to a better understanding of an important source of biogenic VOC associated with land-use change in tropical South East Asia.     

Ecophysiological constraints shape autumn migratory response to climate change in the North American field sparrow

Our ability to accurately forecast species' geographical responses to climate change requires knowledge of the proximate and ultimate drivers of their distribution. Here, we consider the ecophysiological and demographic determinants of the distribution of a partial migrant, the North American field sparrow, Spizella pusilla. From 1940 to 1963, the field sparrow extended its winter northern range margin 222km polewards. Such expansion was coincident with not only a geographical expansion into suitable breeding habitats, but also a decrease in mean abundance across sites occupied during the winter surveys. Combined, these trends suggest that declining populations along the expansion front either stopped migrating or altered their autumn migration. The poleward expansion was not coincident with climatically induced decreases in peak metabolic energy demand, but it did track increases in ecosystem net primary productivity. After 1963, the species' lower lethal temperature prevented further poleward movement. These findings show how different ecophysiological constraints can interact to change migration and distribution in a demographically declining species.     

Early-life exposure to climate change impairs tropical shark survival

Sharks are one of the most threatened groups of marine animals worldwide, mostly owing to overfishing and habitat degradation/loss. Although these cartilaginous fish have evolved to fill many ecological niches across a wide range of habitats, they have limited capability to rapidly adapt to human-induced changes in their environments. Contrary to global warming, ocean acidification was not considered as a direct climate-related threat to sharks. Here we show, for the first time, that an early ontogenetic acclimation process of a tropical shark (Chiloscyllium punctatum) to the projected scenarios of ocean acidification (ΔpH = 0.5) and warming (+4°C; 30°C) for 2100 elicited significant impairments on juvenile shark condition and survival. The mortality of shark embryos at the present-day thermal scenarios was 0% both at normocapnic and hypercapnic conditions. Yet routine metabolic rates (RMRs) were significantly affected by temperature, pH and embryonic stage. Immediately after hatching, the Fulton condition of juvenile bamboo sharks was significantly different in individuals that experienced future warming and hypercapnia; 30 days after hatching, survival rapidly declined in individuals experiencing both ocean warming and acidification (up to 44%). The RMR of juvenile sharks was also significantly affected by temperature and pH. The impact of low pH on ventilation rates was significant only under the higher thermal scenario. This study highlights the need of experimental-based risk assessments of sharks to climate change. In other words, it is critical to directly assess risk and vulnerability of sharks to ocean acidification and warming, and such effort can ultimately help managers and policy-makers to take proactive measures targeting most endangered species.     

Penguin responses to climate change in the Southern Ocean

Penguins are adapted to live in extreme environments, but they can be highly sensitive to climate change, which disrupts penguin life history strategies when it alters the weather, oceanography and critical habitats. For example, in the southwest Atlantic, the distributional range of the ice‐obligate emperor and Adélie penguins has shifted poleward and contracted, while the ice‐intolerant gentoo and chinstrap penguins have expanded their range southward. In the Southern Ocean, the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode are the main modes of climate variability that drive changes in the marine ecosystem, ultimately affecting penguins. The interaction between these modes is complex and changes over time, so that penguin responses to climate change are expected to vary accordingly, complicating our understanding of their future population processes. Penguins have long life spans, which slow microevolution, and which is unlikely to increase their tolerance to rapid warming. Therefore, in order that penguins may continue to exploit their transformed ecological niche and maintain their current distributional ranges, they must possess adequate phenotypic plasticity. However, past species‐specific adaptations also constrain potential changes in phenology, and are unlikely to be adaptive for altered climatic conditions. Thus, the paleoecological record suggests that penguins are more likely to respond by dispersal rather than adaptation. Ecosystem changes are potentially most important at the borders of current geographic distributions, where penguins operate at the limits of their tolerance; species with low adaptability, particularly the ice‐obligates, may therefore be more affected by their need to disperse in response to climate and may struggle to colonize new habitats. While future sea‐ice contraction around Antarctica is likely to continue affecting the ice‐obligate penguins, understanding the responses of the ice‐intolerant penguins also depends on changes in climate mode periodicities and interactions, which to date remain difficult to reproduce in general circulation models.     

Acclimation of Russian forests to recent changes in climate

Assessments made over the past few decades have suggested that boreal forests may act as a sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide. However, the fate of the newly accumulated carbon in the living forest biomass is not well understood, and the estimates of carbon sinks vary greatly from one assessment to another. Analysis of remote sensing data has indicated that the carbon sinks in the Russian forests are larger than what has been estimated from forest inventories. In this study, we show that over the past four decades, the allometric relationships among various plant parts have changed in the Russian forests. To this end, we employ two approaches: (1) analysis of the database, which contains 3196 sample plots; and (2) application of developed models to forest inventory data. Within the forests as a whole, when assessed at the continental scale, we detect a pronounced increase in the share of green parts (leaves and needles). However, there is a large geographical variation. The shift has been largest within the European Russia, where summer temperatures and precipitation have increased. In the Northern Taiga of Siberia, where the climate has become warmer but drier, the fraction of the green parts has decreased while the fractions of aboveground wood and roots have increased. These changes are consistent with experiments and mathematical models that predict a shift of carbon allocation to transpiring foliage with increasing temperature and lower allocation with increasing soil drought. In light of this, our results are a possible demonstration of the acclimation of trees to ongoing warming and changes in the surface water balance. Independent of the nature of the observed changes in allometric ratios, the increase in the share of green parts may have caused a misinterpretation of the satellite data and a systematic overestimation by remote sensing methods of the carbon sink for living biomass of the Russian forest.