Technical note: Prediction of sex based on five skull traits using decision analysis (CHAID)

Osteologists commonly assess the sex of skeletal remains found in forensic and archaeological contexts based on ordinal scores of subjectively assessed sexually dimorphic traits. Using known‐sex samples, logistic regression (LR) discriminant functions have been recently developed, which allow sex probabilities to be determined. A limitation of LR is that it emphasizes main effects and not interactions. Chi‐square automatic interaction detection (CHAID) is an alternative classification strategy that emphasizes the information in variable interactions and uses decision trees to maximize the probability of correct sex determinations. We used CHAID to analyze the predictive value of the 31 possible combinations of five sexually dimorphic skull traits that Walker used previously to develop logistic regression sex determination equations. The samples consisted of 304 individuals of known sex of English, African American, and European American origin. Based on practical considerations, selection criteria for the best sex predictive trait combinations (SPTCs) were set at accuracies for both sexes of 75% or greater and sex biases lower than 5%. Although several of the trees meeting these criteria were produced for the English and European American samples, none met them for the African American sample. In the series of out‐of‐sample tests we performed, the trees from the English and combined sample of all groups predicted best. Am J Phys Anthropol, 2009. © 2009 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Mandibular ramus flexure and gonial eversion as morphologic indicators of sex

Recently, two mandibular traits--ramus flexure and gonial eversion--have come under close scrutiny (Loth & Henneberg 1996, 2000). The present study investigates the reliability of these two traits when each is applied as a single and independent indicator of sex, including the question of repeatability. The investigation was designed to give insights into possible confounding factors such as age and remodeling after tooth loss. Two samples, one of forensic (N = 153) and one of archaeological provenance (N = 80), were examined. The forensic sample was evaluated by a single observer while the archaeological sample was independently scored by three different observers. The results document that age and localized tooth loss seriously reduce the accuracy of these traits. For ramus flexure, male accuracy was only 66%, while female accuracy was even lower (32%). Overall accuracy was 59%. It is believed that the original scoring system devised by Loth and Henneberg (1996) creates an inherent bias in favor of males. For gonial eversion, a similar picture emerged (75.4% for males, 45.2% for females and 69.3% overall accuracy). Furthermore, both indicators are prone to intra- as well as inter-observer bias. While both possess some merit as sex indicators, they show marked functional and adaptive responses and may not be suitable for all samples.     

The utility of carpals for sex assessment: a preliminary study

Sex assessment is key when investigating human remains either from medicolegal contexts or archaeological sites. Sex is usually assessed by examination of the skull and pelvis, but this may not always be possible if skeletal material is fragmented or incomplete. The present study investigated the potential for using carpals to assess sex, utilizing 100 individuals of known-sex from the Christ Church, Spitalfields Collection, curated at the Natural History Museum (London). A series of newly-defined measurements are applied to all eight carpals. Inter and intraobserver error tests show that all measurements are satisfactorily reproduced by the first author and another observer. Paired t-tests to investigate side asymmetry of the carpals reveal that some, but not all, measurements are consistently larger on the right hand side than the left. Independent t-tests confirm that all carpals are sexually dimorphic. Univariate measurements produce accuracy levels that range from 64.6 to 84.7%. Stepwise discriminant function analysis, devised separately for left and right sides, provides reliable methods for assessing sex from single and multiple carpals, with an accuracy range of 71.7 to 88.6%. All functions derived are tested for accuracy on a sample of 20 additional individuals from the Christ Church, Spitalfields Collection.     

Sexual dimorphism in human skulls. A comparison of sexual dimorphism in different populations

Application and comparison of sex discriminant functions in different populations led to the conclusion that a certain combination and weighting of a few sex dimorphism variables (in this study we only used craniometric variables) can give a good discrimination between male and female individuals, independent of the racial group to which this function is applied. In our study, the sex-discriminatory power of five discriminant functions which were based on different ordination and selection procedures (e.g. professional knowledge, stepwise discriminant analysis, literature) of the cranial variables is compared. These discriminant functions were applied to three different data sets, the first being skull measurements from an Amsterdam series (Europids), the second skull measurements of a Zulu series (Negrids) and the third skull measurements of a Japan series (Mongolids). Our decision as to whether a function is a good or less good sex-discriminating function is determined by the Dt values (these values give an idea about the discriminatory value of the discriminant function when applied to a new test sample), the number of variables necessary to obtain this Dt and the location of the sectioning point (i.e. comparison between the estimation of the sectioning point and the ”real” sectioning point). These discriminant functions were compared withGiles Elliot's (1962, 1963) “race-independent” sex function.     

Sex determination using the scapula in New Kingdom skeletons from Tell El-Amarna

Both forensic and archaeological sciences use metric analysis of human skeletal remains for sex estimation of unknown individuals. Thomas Dwight first reported the utility of scapula metrics for sex estimation in 1894, and subsequent years have produced several techniques for sex estimation using scapula metrics. Levels of sexual dimorphism vary across time and space, making these methods not universally applicable. Novel discriminant functions for unique populations are thus necessary. The present study establishes metric standards for sex estimation for a New Kingdom Egyptian skeletal sample from Tell El-Amarna using scapular measurements. The sample for this research consists of 27 individuals (14 males; 13 females) whose sex estimate based on pelvic morphology is unambiguous. The five measurements showing the highest degree of sexual dimorphism (p ≤ 0.001) are used in the discriminant functions reported here: maximum length of the scapula, maximum length of the scapular spine, breadth of the infraspinous body, height of the glenoid fossa, and breadth of the glenoid fossa. The overall leave one out, cross-validated accuracy for the five reported discriminant functions ranges from 84.0 to 88.0%; similar to accuracies reported for the femur and humerus. Functions combining multiple variables produce higher accuracies than those based on single measurements. The unique population of Amarna, being comprised of emigrants from throughout Egypt, suggests these discriminant functions will have utility for Amarna period sites across the spatial distances of Egypt, and possibly the temporal range of the New Kingdom as a whole.     

应用Fourier变换对东北地区成人颅骨性别差异的研究

本研究所用材料为已知性别、已知年龄的东北地区汉族成人干燥颅骨。应用Fourier变换,将额骨矢状弧的形态转变成Fourier极数,然后应用多元逐步判别分析求得性别判别函数,判别符合率达到90.10％。对31例已知性别汉族成人颅骨盲测,正确率达到84.21% (男性) 和83.33％ (女性) 。研究表明,颅骨的大小和年龄对本方法的判别结果无显著影响。     

Size factor as one of the problems in the sex estimation of skulls: upper palaeolithic sample from Predmostí (Czech Republic) as an example

In this study we estimate sex and population affinity of Gravettian Predmostí (P) skulls using linear and geometric discriminant analysis (DA), and compare them with results of 2D geometric morphometrics (GM). We used the measurements of P3 and P9 males, P4 and P10 females, as originally estimated by Matiegka (1934), as well as two databases--the recent skull database of Howells and the fossil data of Henke. DA classifies the P skulls as robust and belonging to the "male" region, loosing the sensitivity of inter-population differences influenced by size factor. That is why this approach could not be applied. The geographic inter-population differences according to DA do not define P skull shapes as extreme. The influence of geographic variability could be stronger than the inter-sexual differences. Despite the chronological differences between databases and Gravettian skulls, these differences are a component of regional inter-population variability. According to our results, GM is more successful methodological approach than DA. Our previous sex estimation of P skulls with help of GM is completely in accordance with the classical morphoscopic estimation. However, an appropriate reference database is necessary in both the GM and DA approaches. For the sexing of skull with unknown population affinity, and with absence of appropriate reference database, we suggest to use the application of more subjective visual scoring methods.     

Ontogenetic study of the skull in modern humans and the common chimpanzees: neotenic hypothesis reconsidered with a tridimensional Procrustes analysis

Heterochronic studies compare ontogenetic trajectories of an organ in different species: here, the skulls of common chimpanzees and modern humans. A growth trajectory requires three parameters: size, shape, and ontogenetic age. One of the great advantages of the Procrustes method is the precise definition of size and shape for whole organs such as the skull. The estimated ontogenetic age (dental stages) is added to the plot to give a graphical representation to compare growth trajectories. We used the skulls of 41 Homo sapiens and 50 Pan troglodytes at various stages of growth. The Procrustes superimposition of all specimens was completed by statistical procedures (principal component analysis, multivariate regression, and discriminant function) to calculate separately size-related shape changes (allometry common to chimpanzees and humans), and interspecific shape differences (discriminant function). The results confirm the neotenic theory of the human skull (sensu Gould [1977] Ontogeny and Phylogeny, Cambridge: Harvard University Press; Alberch et al. [1979] Paleobiology 5:296-317), but modify it slightly. Human growth is clearly retarded in terms of both the magnitude of changes (size-shape covariation) and shape alone (size-shape dissociation) with respect to the chimpanzees. At the end of growth, the adult skull in humans reaches an allometric shape (size-related shape) which is equivalent to that of juvenile chimpanzees with no permanent teeth, and a size which is equivalent to that of adult chimpanzees. Our results show that human neoteny involves not only shape retardation (paedomorphosis), but also changes in relative growth velocity. Before the eruption of the first molar, human growth is accelerated, and then strongly decelerated, relative to the growth of the chimpanzee as a reference. This entails a complex process, which explains why these species reach the same overall (i.e., brain + face) size in adult stage. The neotenic traits seem to concern primarily the function of encephalization, but less so other parts of the skull. Our results, based on the discriminant function, reveal that additional structural traits (corresponding to the nonallometric part of the shape which is specific to humans) are rather situated in the other part of the skull. They mainly concern the equilibrium of the head related to bipedalism, and the respiratory and masticatory functions. Thus, the reduced prognathism, the flexed cranial base (forward position of the foramen magnum which is brought closer to the palate), the reduced anterior portion of the face, the reduced glabella, and the prominent nose mainly correspond to functional innovations which have nothing to do with a neotenic process in human evolution. The statistical analysis used here gives us the possibility to point out that some traits, which have been classically described as paedomorphic because they superficially resemble juvenile traits, are in reality independent of growth.     

Sexual dimorphism in human cranial trait scores: Effects of population,age, and body size

Sex estimation from the skull is commonly performed by physical and forensic anthropologists using a five‐trait scoring system developed by Walker. Despite the popularity of this method, validation studies evaluating its accuracy across a variety of samples are lacking. Furthermore, it remains unclear what other intrinsic or extrinsic variables are related to the expression of these traits. In this study, cranial trait scores and postcranial measurements were collected from four diverse population groups (U.S. Whites, U.S. Blacks, medieval Nubians, and Arikara Native Americans) following Walker's protocols (total n = 499). Univariate and multivariate analyses were utilized to evaluate the accuracy of these traits in sex estimation, and to test for the effects of population, age, and body size on trait expressions. Results revealed significant effects of population on all trait scores. Sample‐specific correct sex classification rates ranged from 74% to 94%, with an overall accuracy of 85% for the pooled sample. Classification performance varied among the traits (best for glabella and mastoid scores and worst for nuchal scores). Furthermore, correlations between traits were weak or nonsignificant, suggesting that different factors may influence individual traits. Some traits displayed correlations with age and/or postcranial size that were significant but weak, and within‐population analyses did not reveal any consistent relationships between these traits across all groups. These results indicate that neither age nor body size plays a large role in trait expression, and thus does not need to be incorporated into sex estimation methods. Am J Phys Anthropol 154:259–269, 2014. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

上肢长骨的性别判别分析研究

本文对100例(男女各50)国人上肢骨进行了36项测量。统计结果显示所有测量项目均值男性都大于女性并具有显著性的差异。本研究表明可以采用单一指标对破损严重的肢骨进行性别鉴定。36个测量项目中有23项单一指标性别判别率达75％以上,其中9项在80％以上。本文采用Fisher判别分析法建立了56项单一肢骨性别判别函数,判别率为80％—87％。为进一步提高判别效果,采用逐步判别分析法建立了四项逐步性别判别函数,判别率达90％以上。     

Sexing skulls using discriminant function analysis of visually assessed traits

The accuracy of sex determinations based on visual assessments of the mental eminence, orbital margin, glabellar area, nuchal area, and mastoid process was tested on a series of 304 skulls of known age and sex from people of European American, African American, and English ancestry as well as on an ancient Native American sample of 156 individuals whose sex could be reliably determined based on pelvic morphology. Ordinal scores of these sexually dimorphic traits were used to compute sex determination discriminant functions. Linear, kth-nearest-neighbor, logistic, and quadratic discriminant analysis models were evaluated based on their capacity to minimize both misclassifications and sex biases in classification errors. Logistic regression discriminant analysis produced the best results: a logistic model containing all five cranial trait scores correctly classified 88% of the modern skulls with a negligible sex bias of 0.1%. Adding age at death, birth year, and population affinity to the model did not appreciably improve its performance. For the ancient Native American sample, the best logistic regression model assigned the correct pelvic sex to 78% of the individuals with a sex bias of only 0.2%. Similar cranial trait frequency distributions were found in same-sex comparisons of the modern African American, European American, and English samples. The sexual dimorphism of these modern people contrasts markedly with that of the ancient Native Americans. Because of such population differences, discriminant functions like those presented in this paper should be used with caution on populations other than those for which they were developed.     

Brief communication: a study of the predictive accuracy of mandibular ramus flexure as a singular morphologic indicator of sex in an archaeological sample

Loth and Henneberg ([1996] Am J Phys Anthropol 99:473-485) assert that they have discovered a single morphologic indicator of sexual dimorphism in the human mandible that rivals the predictive accuracy of the complete pelvis at 94.2% for all samples (99% for healthy samples). To test the accuracy of their method, mandibles (n = 150) from the Tepe Hissar collection were assessed for the presence or absence of mandibular ramus flexure. These results were then compared to a separate sex assessment based on morphologic indicators from the corresponding skull and innominates (where possible) to yield an overall accuracy of only 78.2%. As a means of independent assessment, the mandibular results were also compared with Krogman's ([1940] Racial Types from Tepe Hessar, Iran, from late fifth to early second millennium, BC. Amsterdam: Koninkliijke Nederlandsche Akademie van Wetenschappen) assessment of sex based on craniofacial measurements and morphologic indicators from the skull. This comparison produced an even lower accuracy of 67.2%. Such results question the predictive potential of mandibular ramus flexure as a single indicator of sexual dimorphism and suggest caution when applying this method, especially in the case of fragmentary forensic and fossil remains.     

Sex determination from the skull and parts of the hip bone

Using multivariate discriminant analyses of various skull length and breadth measurements and some measurements of the ischio-pubic and/or sacro-iliac pelvic bone segments, we remarkably improved the skeleton sex diagnosis on the larger bone samples from Prague, Brno, and Leipzig. According to NOVOTNY, a correct sexing of pelves is possible on the basis of combination of 2 type-morphognostic characters and 4 morphometric ones of the pubis, the ischium, and the greater sciatic notch (incisura ischiadica major). The symphysis region also yields several characters usable in discriminant functions which, in combination with the ventral border of the symphyseal surface, enable the sex diagnosis required by forensic medicine using one part of pelvis only.     

Sex determination in the Lesser Flamingo (Phoenicopterus minor) using morphological measurements

Morphological measurements and blood samples were taken from 154 Lesser Flamingos Phoenicopterus minor, including adults (>3 years old), immature sub-adults (2–3 years old) and first-year juvenile birds of both sexes, captured at Lake Bogoria, Kenya (0°11'–20' N, 036°06' E) during 2001 and 2002. PCR amplification of the CHD-Z and CHD-W genes using DNA extracted from the blood samples was used to determine the sex of each bird. There were significant differences in mass and tarsus length among the three age groups, indicating that Lesser Flamingos continue to grow in skeletal size and mass between fledging and the attainment of adult plumage at 3–4 years of age. On average, males were significantly larger than females in all age groups, although there was substantial overlap between the sexes in all morphological measurements. The element with the least amount of overlap was head-and-bill length. Discriminant functions utilising head-and-bill length that correctly predict the sex of juvenile and immature birds with approximately 93% accuracy are presented. By adding total tarsus length, the sex of wild adult Lesser Flamingos is correctly predicted with approximately 98% accuracy. The same discriminant function developed for wild adult birds predicted the sex of 19 captive adult Lesser Flamingos of known sex with 100% accuracy.     

Morphometric sex determination of young Ospreys Pandion haliaetus using discriminant analysis

Capsule Discriminant functions based on morphometric variables provide a reliable method for sex identification of free‐living and hacked young Ospreys.

Aims To describe an easy, accurate and low‐cost method for sex determination of fully grown nestling and fledgling Ospreys Pandion haliaetus based on morphometric measurements.

Methods Four different measurements were taken in 114 birds (40–73 days old) and a DNA analysis, using PCR amplification, was carried out for sex identification. A forward stepwise discriminant analysis was performed to build the best explanatory discriminant models, which were subsequently validated using statistics and external samples.

Results Our best discriminant function retained forearm and tarsus as the best predictor variables and classified 95.1% of the sample correctly, supported also by external cross‐validations with both hacked and free‐living birds. Moreover, a discriminant function with only forearm as predictor showed a similar high correct classification power (93.4%).

Conclusions These discriminant functions can be used as a reliable and immediate method for sex determination of young Ospreys since they showed high discriminant accuracy, close to that of molecular procedures, and were supported by external cross‐validations, both for free‐living and hacked birds. Thus, these morphometric measurements should be considered as standard tools for future scientific studies and management of Osprey populations     

Sex estimation using the first cervical vertebra

The articular surfaces and vertebral foramen area of the first cervical vertebra are sexually dimorphic and can be used to sex complete or fragmentary specimens. Eight measurements were taken from the articular regions (superior and inferior) of 100 first cervical vertebrae from Terry collection specimens housed at the Smithsonian Institution. Seven regression and seven discriminant function equations were created that predict sex with 77–85% and 75–85% accuracy, respectively. In separate control tests, measurements from 100 first cervical vertebrae from Hamann-Todd collection individuals (Cleveland Museum of Natural History) and from 34 archaeological specimens were used with the Terry equations. The control samples were sexed with 60—85% accuracy. © 1995 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

The discriminant power of biometrics for sex determination in European Bee-eaters Merops apiaster

ABSTRACT

Capsule A combination of several biometric measures enables the reliable sexing of the European Bee-eater Merops apiaster, a species with subtle sex differences in plumage and morphometry.

Aims To explore variation in biometrics and their suitability to discriminate sex in adult European Bee-eaters Merops apiaster.

Methods We sampled populations of a long-distance migratory species with low sexual size dimorphism, the European Bee-eater Merops apiaster, from colonies in western Iberia (Portugal) and Central Europe (Germany) to investigate body size variation and derive population-specific and general sex discriminant functions.

Results Overall, male Bee-eaters were larger than females while Bee-eaters from Germany and Portugal did not differ in size, except for primary length and tail length. The best single measurement to discriminate sex was wing length for Portuguese birds and tail tip length for German birds, as in the combined dataset. Multivariate discriminant functions of head-bill, wing and tail tip lengths provided the highest discriminant accuracy, discriminating sex for 91% of the birds from Portugal, 96% from Germany and 94% when using the combined dataset. Nonetheless, the discriminant accuracy remained high in the functions using only two variables for Portugal (head-bill and tail tip 91%, head-bill and wing 88%, wing and tail tip 88%), Germany (head-bill and tail tip 95%, wing and tail tip 97%) and in the combined dataset (head-bill and tail tip 92%, wing and tail tip 93%).

Conclusions Population specific discriminant functions allow sexing of European Bee-eaters by morphometry with high degree of accuracy at least for Iberia and Central European populations. Such discriminant functions can be used to assign the sex of adult Bee-eaters reliably and swiftly while the bird is still in the hand, highlighting the potential of these functions for rapidly sexing species with low degrees of sexual size and plumage dimorphism.     

Sex determination of Finnish crania by discriminant function analysis

Using multivariant discriminant function analysis, the sex of 232 Finnish crania of known sex was determined. Eight measurements were used to form two discriminant functions. In 80% of cases the sex determination by means of the discriminant functions was identical with the original information. The applicability of the sex discriminant function of Giles and Elliot ('63) for American white and Negro crania was also tested on the Finnish crania. An accuracy of only 65% was attained.     

太行山猕猴掌骨性别判别分析

为了了解成年太行山猕猴5根掌骨的性差大小。本文对太行山猕猴掌骨标本40例(雄:10, 雌:30)进行观察并选择掌骨的9项形态变量进行测量。数据用SPSS19.0软件进行多变量判别分析。结果表明: 5根掌骨长度等变量在性别之间有明显差异。用全模型法5根掌骨的性别正确判别率范围为94.1%~100.0%, 用逐步判别法掌骨性别正确判别率范围为93.8%~97.5%。有关掌骨的9个形态变量, 长度变量首先被挑选出来, 说明在性别判别中起重要作用。分别用左右侧掌骨的判别函数来判别性别时侧别差异不明显。结论: 用每根掌骨的形态变量建立判别函数可以有效地区分性别, 对非人灵长类掌骨标本的性别鉴定有一定的理论意义和应用价值。