EXTINCTION AND RECOLONIZATION: THEIR EFFECTS ON THE GENETIC DIFFERENTIATION OF LOCAL POPULATIONS

In this paper, we use a model by Slatkin (1977) to investigate the genetic effects of extinction and recolonization for a species whose population structure consists of an array of local demes with some migration among them. In particular, we consider the conditions under which extinction and recolonization might enhance or diminish gene flow and increase or decrease the rate of genetic differentiation relative to the static case with no extinctions. We explicitly take into account the age-structure that is established within the array of populations by the extinction and colonization process. We also consider two different models of the colonization process, the so-called “migrant pool” and “propagule pool” models. Our theoretical studies indicate that the genetic effects of extinction and colonization depend upon the relative magnitudes of K, the number of individuals founding new colonies, and 2Nm, twice the number of migrants moving into extant populations. We find that these genetic effects are surprisingly insensitive to the extinction rate. We conclude that, in order to assess the genetic effects of the population dynamics, we must first answer an important empirical question that is essentially ecological: is colonization a behavior distinct from migration?     

Determinants of Genetic Structure in a Nonequilibrium Metapopulation of the Plant Silene latifolia

Population genetic differentiation will be influenced by the demographic history of populations, opportunities for migration among neighboring demes and founder effects associated with repeated extinction and recolonization. In natural populations, these factors are expected to interact with each other and their magnitudes will vary depending on the spatial distribution and age structure of local demes. Although each of these effects has been individually identified as important in structuring genetic variance, their relative magnitude is seldom estimated in nature. We conducted a population genetic analysis in a metapopulation of the angiosperm, Silene latifolia, from which we had more than 20 years of data on the spatial distribution, demographic history, and extinction and colonization of demes. We used hierarchical Bayesian methods to disentangle which features of the populations contributed to among population variation in allele frequencies, including the magnitude and direction of their effects. We show that population age, long-term size and degree of connectivity all combine to affect the distribution of genetic variance; small, recently-founded, isolated populations contributed most to increase F _ST in the metapopulation. However, the effects of population size and population age are best understood as being modulated through the effects of connectivity to other extant populations, i.e. F _ST diminishes as populations age, but at a rate that depends how isolated the population is. These spatial and temporal correlates of population structure give insight into how migration, founder effect and within-deme genetic drift have combined to enhance and restrict genetic divergence in a natural metapopulation.     

Effects of metapopulation processes on measures of genetic diversity

Many species persist as a metapopulation under a balance between the local extinction of subpopulations or demes and their recolonization through dispersal from occupied patches. Here we review the growing body of literature dealing with the genetic consequences of such population turnover. We focus our attention principally on theoretical studies of a classical metapopulation with a 'finite-island' model of population structure, rather than on 'continent-island' models or 'source-sink' models. In particular, we concern ourselves with the subset of geographically subdivided population models in which it is assumed that all demes are liable to extinction from time to time and that all demes receive immigrants. Early studies of the genetic effects of population turnover focused on population differentiation, such as measured by F(ST). A key advantage of F(ST) over absolute measures of diversity is its relative independence of the mutation process, so that different genes in the same species may be compared. Another advantage is that F(ST) will usually equilibrate more quickly following perturbations than will absolute levels of diversity. However, because F(ST) is a ratio of between-population differentiation to total diversity, the genetic effects of metapopulation processes may be difficult to interpret in terms of F(ST) on its own, so that the analysis of absolute measures of diversity in addition is likely to be informative. While population turnover may either increase or decrease F(ST), depending on the mode of colonization, recurrent extinction and recolonization is expected always to reduce levels of both within-population and species-wide diversity (piS and piT, respectively). One corollary of this is that piS cannot be used as an unbiased estimate of the scaled mutation rate, theta, as it can, with some assumptions about the migration process, in species whose demes do not fluctuate in size. The reduction of piT in response to population turnover reflects shortened mean coalescent times, although the distribution of coalescence times under extinction colonization equilibrium is not yet known. Finally, we review current understanding of the effect of metapopulation dynamics on the effective population size.     

Genetic load,inbreeding depression and heterosis in an age‐structured metapopulation

In a metapopulation, the process of recurrent local extinction and recolonization gives rise to an age structure among demes. Recently established demes will tend to differ from older demes in terms of the levels of genetic diversity found within them and the way this diversity is distributed among demes in the same and different ages. The effects of population turnover on average levels of genetic diversity among demes in a metapopulation have been the focus of much attention, both for neutral and nonneutral loci, but much less is known about the distribution of nonneutral genetic diversity among demes of different ages. In this paper, we used computer simulations to study the distribution of genetic load, inbreeding depression and heterosis in an age‐structured metapopulation. We found that, for mildly deleterious mutations, within‐deme inbreeding depression increased, whereas heterosis and genetic load decreased with deme age following severe colonization bottlenecks. In contrast, recessive lethal alleles tended to be purged during colonization, with older populations showing higher genetic load and higher within‐deme inbreeding depression. Heterosis caused by recessive lethal alleles and resulting from gene flow among different demes tended to be greatest for young demes, because the mutations responsible tended to be purged in the first few generations after colonization, but its effects increased again as populations grow older as a result of immigration. Our results point to a need for estimates of genetic diversity, genetic load, within‐deme inbreeding depression and heterosis in demes of different age classes separately.     

Gene genealogies in a metapopulation

A simple genealogical process is found for samples from a metapopulation, which is a population that is subdivided into a large number of demes, each of which is subject to extinction and recolonization and receives migrants from other demes. As in the migration-only models studied previously, the genealogy of any sample includes two phases: a brief sample-size adjustment followed by a coalescent process that dominates the history. This result will hold for metapopulations that are composed of a large number of demes. It is robust to the details of population structure, as long as the number of possible source demes of migrants and colonists for each deme is large. Analytic predictions about levels of genetic variation are possible, and results for average numbers of pairwise differences within and between demes are given. Further analysis of the expected number of segregating sites in a sample from a single deme illustrates some previously known differences between migration and extinction/recolonization. The ancestral process is also amenable to computer simulation. Simulation results show that migration and extinction/recolonization have very different effects on the site-frequency distribution in a sample from a single deme. Migration can cause a U-shaped site-frequency distribution, which is qualitatively similar to the pattern reported recently for positive selection. Extinction and recolonization, in contrast, can produce a mode in the site-frequency distribution at intermediate frequencies, even in a sample from a single deme.     

TEMPORAL FLUCTUATIONS IN DEMOGRAPHIC PARAMETERS AND THE GENETIC VARIANCE AMONG POPULATIONS

Contrary to assumptions commonly made in the study of population genetics, the demographic properties of many populations are not always constant. Important characteristics of populations such as migration rate and population size may vary in time and space. Moreover, local populations often come and go; the rate of extinction and the properties of colonization may also vary. In this paper, the approach to equilibrium following a disturbance in the genetic variance among populations is described. The rate of migration is shown to be critical in determining the extent to which extinction and recolonization affects genetic differentiation. Perturbations and variations through time and space in demographic parameters such as population size and migration rate are shown to be important in determining the partitioning of genetic variance. Equations are given to predict the average through time of genetic differentiation among populations in the event of a single disturbance or in constant fluctuations in the pertinent demographic parameters. In general, these fluctuations increase the F_ST of a species. Spatial demographic variation affects F_STmuch more than temporal variation. These demographic properties make some species unsuitable for the empirical analysis of migration with indirect genetic measures. Demographic instability may play a large role in the evolution of genetic variation.     

Evolution of intrahost HIV-1 genetic diversity during chronic infection

HIV-1 is one of the fastest evolving entities known. Given that census population sizes of HIV-1 within individuals are much greater than the inverse mutation rate, every possible single point mutation in the viral genome occurs each generation. This enormous capability to generate genetic variation allows for escape from immune surveillance and antiviral therapy. However, compared to this potential, populations of HIV-1 within individuals exhibit little genetic variation. This discrepancy between the known mutation rate of HIV-1 and the average level of genetic variation in the env gene observed in vivo is reflected in comparisons of the actual numbers of productively infected cells, estimated as 10(7), and the effective population size, estimated as 10(3). Using approximate Bayesian computation, we evaluated several hypotheses based on a variety of selective and demographic processes to explain the low effective population size of HIV-1. Of the models we examined, the metapopulation model, in which HIV-1 evolves within an individual as a large collection of small subpopulations subject to frequent migration, extinction, and recolonization, was most consistent with the observed levels of genetic variation and the average frequencies of those variants. The metapopulation model links previous studies of viral dynamics and population genetics.     

Coalescence in a metapopulation with recurrent local extinction and recolonization

Abstract Many species exist as metapopulations in balance between local population extinction and recolonization. The effect of these processes on average population differentiation, within-deme diversity, and specieswide diversity has been considered previously. In this paper, coalescent simulations of Slatkin's propagule-pool and migrant-pool models are used to characterize the distribution of neutral genetic diversity within demes (π_s), diversity in the metapopulation a whole (TT_T), the ratio F _ST= (π_t–π_S)/π_T, Tajima's D statistic, and several ratios of gene-tree branch lengths. Using these distributions, power to detect differences in key metapopulation parameter values is determined under contrasting sampling regimes. The results indicate that it will be difficult to use sequence data from a single locus to detect a history of extinctions and recolonizations in a metapopulation because of high genealogical variance, the loss of diversity due to reductions in effective population size, and the fact that a genealogy of lineages from different demes under Slatkin's model differs from a neutral coalescent only in its time scale. Genetic indices of gene-tree shape that capture the effects of extinction/recolonization on both external branches and the length of the genealogy as a whole will provide the best indication of metapopulation dynamics if several lineages are sampled from several different demes.     

Nonequilibrium migration in human history

A nonequilibrium migration model is proposed and applied to genetic data from humans. The model assumes symmetric migration among all possible pairs of demes and that the number of demes is large. With these assumptions it is straightforward to allow for changes in demography, and here a single abrupt change is considered. Under the model this change is identical to a change in the ancestral effective population size and might be caused by changes in deme size, in the number of demes, or in the migration rate. Expressions for the expected numbers of sites segregating at particular frequencies in a multideme sample are derived. A maximum-likelihood analysis of independent polymorphic restriction sites in humans reveals a decrease in effective size. This is consistent with a change in the rates of migration among human subpopulations from ancient low levels to present high ones.     

The effects of subdivision on the genetic divergence of populations and species

Abstract. An island model of migration is used to study the effects of subdivision within populations and species on sample genealogies and on between-population or between-species measures of genetic variation. The model assumes that the number of demes within each population or species is large. When populations (or species), connected either by gene flow or historical association, are themselves subdivided into demes, changes in the migration rate among demes alter both the structure of genealogies and the time scale of the coalescent process. The time scale of the coalescent is related to the effective size of the population, which depends on the migration rate among demes. When the migration rate among demes within populations is low, isolation (or speciation) events seem more recent and migration rates among populations seem higher because the effective size of each population is increased. This affects the probability of reciprocal monophyly of two samples, the chance that a gene tree of a sample matches the species tree, and relative likelihoods of different types of polymorphic sites. It can also have a profound effect on the estimation of divergence times.     

Fixation probability and time in subdivided populations

New alleles arising in a population by mutation ultimately are either fixed or lost. Either is possible, for both beneficial and deleterious alleles, because of stochastic changes in allele frequency due to genetic drift. Spatially structured populations differ from unstructured populations in the probability of fixation and the time that this fixation takes. Previous results have generally made many assumptions: that all demes contribute to the next generation in exact proportion to their current sizes, that new mutations are beneficial, and that new alleles have additive effects. In this article these assumptions are relaxed, allowing for an arbitrary distribution among demes of reproductive success, both beneficial and deleterious effects, and arbitrary dominance. The effects of population structure can be expressed with two summary statistics: the effective population size and a variant of Wright's F(ST). In general, the probability of fixation is strongly affected by population structure, as is the expected time to fixation or loss. Population structure changes the effective size of the species, often strongly downward; smaller effective size increases the probability of fixing deleterious alleles and decreases the probability of fixing beneficial alleles. On the other hand, population structure causes an increase in the homozygosity of alleles, which increases the probability of fixing beneficial alleles but somewhat decreases the probability of fixing deleterious alleles. The probability of fixing new beneficial alleles can be simply described by 2hs(1 - F(ST))N(e)/N(tot), where hs is the change in fitness of heterozygotes relative to the ancestral homozygote, F(ST) is a weighted version of Wright's measure of population subdivision, and N(e) and N(tot) are the effective and census sizes, respectively. These results are verified by simulation for a broad range of population structures, including the island model, the stepping-stone model, and a model with extinction and recolonization.     

Tests of two methods for identifying founder effects in metapopulations reveal substantial type II error

Genetic analysis has been promoted as a way to reconstruct recent historical dynamics (“historical demography”) by screening for signatures of events, such as bottlenecks, that disrupt equilibrium patterns of variation. Such analyses might also identify “metapopulation” processes like extinction and recolonization or source-sink dynamics, but this potential remains largely unrealized. Here we use simulations to test the ability of two currently used strategies to distinguish between a set of interconnected subpopulations (demes) that have undergone bottlenecks or extinction and recolonization events (metapopulation dynamics) from a set of static demes. The first strategy, decomposed pairwise regression, provides a holistic test for heterogeneity among demes in their patterns of isolation-by-distance. This method suffered from a type II error rate of 59–100 %, depending on parameter conditions. The second strategy tests for deviations from mutation-drift equilibrium on a deme-by-deme basis to identify sites likely to have experienced recent bottlenecks or founder effects. Although bottleneck tests have good statistical power for single populations with recent population declines, their validity in structured populations has been called into question, and they have not been tested in a metapopulation context with immigration (or colonization) and population recovery. Our simulations of hypothetical metapopulations show that population recovery can rapidly eliminate the statistical signature of a bottleneck, and that moderate levels of gene flow can generate a false signal of recent population growth for demes in equilibrium. Although we did not cover all possible metapopulation scenarios, the performance of the tests was disappointing. Our results indicate that these methods might often fail to identify population bottlenecks and founder effects if population recovery and/or gene flow are influential demographic features of the study system.     

NEUTRAL GENETIC DIVERSITY IN A METAPOPULATION WITH RECURRENT LOCAL EXTINCTION AND RECOLONIZATION

Many species exist as metapopulations in balance between local population extinction and recolonization, processes that may strongly affect the distribution of neutral genetic diversity within demes and in the metapopulation as a whole. In this paper we use both the infinite-alleles and the infinite-sites models to reframe Slatkin's propagulepool and migrant-pool models in terms of mean within-deme and among-deme genetic diversity; the infinite-sites model is particularly relevant to DNA sequence data. Population turnover causes a major reduction in neutral genetic diversity within demes, π_S, and in the metapopulation as a whole, π_t. This effect is particularly strong for propagulepool colonization, in which colonists are drawn from a single extant deme. Because metapopulation dynamics affect both within-deme and total metapopulation diversity similarly, comparisons between species with different ecologies on the basis of ratios such as F_ST are difficult to interpret and absolute measures of divergence between populations should be used as well. Although the value of F_ST in a metapopulation with local extinction depends strongly on the mode of colonization, this has almost no effect on the numerator of the F_ST ratio, π_t – π_S, so that F_ST is influenced mainly by the effect of the colonization mode on the denominator (π_t). Our results also indicate that it is inappropriate to use measures of average within-deme diversity in species with population turnover to estimate the scaled mutation rate, θ, because extinction can greatly reduce π_S. Finally, we discuss the effect of population turnover on the effective size of a metapopulation.     

EVOLUTION OF ALTRUISM IN KIN-STRUCTURED AND RANDOM SUBDIVIDED POPULATIONS

A. population structure favorable to the evolution of an altruistic trait is studied by Monte Carlo simulation. The model is based on a small-scale nonindustrial human society but seems generalizable to other highly social mammals. Three hierarchical levels are recognized: 1) the ecologically isolated local group (hamlet) which may be composed of kin and/or unrelated individuals; 2) the deme (settlement) comprising several such groups which interbreed; and 3) the set of demes (metapopulation) among which gene flow occurs. The first two levels of the model are based on D. S. Wilson's structured deme concept; the third allows for gene flow among demes in the metapopulation and for the structured diffusion of alleles across a wider area than might be included within the scope of a single deme. The simulation models genetic drift by a process of hamlet formation which may be random, or variously kin-structured. Hamlets may then become extinct based on a probability function of their gene frequencies. Individual selection within settlements is modeled deterministically, and gene flow among settlements is modeled as two-dimensional steppingstone migration of random or kin-structured groups. Results of the simulations show that, with realistic values for group sizes, moderate extinction rate, and high rates of migration (m > 27%), disadvantageous alleles (s = 10% and 25%) may increase markedly due to differential hamlet extinction over the course of 50 generations. The greater the degree of kin-structuring of founder groups, the higher the variance among hamlets and the faster the rate of increase of the allele for altruism. Nonetheless, even in some randomly founded groups, a clear increase in the altruism gene frequency occurred. It is also notable that kin-structured group selection by hamlet extinction may be effective when the initial frequency of altruism genes is very low (average of one per deme) and among a relatively small number of demes (25). Thus the process of group extinction in a hierarchically structured population allows rapid increase of an allele for altruism under plausible demographic conditions.     

Genetic effective size is three orders of magnitude smaller than adult census size in an abundant,Estuarine-dependent marine fish (Sciaenops ocellatus)

Using eight microsatellite loci and a variety of analytical methods, we estimated genetic effective size (N(e)) of an abundant and long-lived marine fish species, the red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus), in the northern Gulf of Mexico (Gulf). The ratio N(e)/N, where short-term variance N(e) was estimated via the temporal method from shifts in allele-frequency data over four cohorts and where N reflected a current estimate of adult census size in the northern Gulf, was approximately 0.001. In an idealized population, this ratio should approximate unity. The extraordinarily low value of N(e)/N appears to arise from high variance in individual reproductive success and perhaps more importantly from variance in productivity of critical spawning and nursery habitats located in spatially discrete bays and estuaries throughout the northern Gulf. An estimate of N(e) based on a coalescent approach, which measures long-term, inbreeding effective size, was four orders of magnitude lower than the estimate of current census size, suggesting that factors presently driving N(e)/N to low values among red drum in the northern Gulf may have operated similarly in the past. Models that predict N(e)/N exclusively from demographic and life-history features will seriously overestimate N(e) if variance in reproductive success and variance in productivity among spatially discrete demes is underestimated. Our results indicate that these variances, especially variance in productivity among demes, must be large for red drum. Moreover, our study indicates that vertebrate populations with enormous adult census numbers may still be at risk relative to decline and extinction from genetic factors.     

The Effective Size of a Subdivided Population

This paper derives the long-term effective size, N(e), for a general model of population subdivision, allowing for differential deme fitness, variable emigration and immigration rates, extinction, colonization, and correlations across generations in these processes. We show that various long-term measures of N(e) are equivalent. The effective size of a metapopulation can be expressed in a variety of ways. At a demographic equilibrium, N(e) can be derived from the demography by combining information about the ultimate contribution of each deme to the future genetic make-up of the population and Wright's F(ST)'s. The effective size is given by N(e) = 1/(1 + var ( &))<(1 - f(STi))/N(i)n>, where n is the number of demes, &(i) is the eventual contribution of individuals in deme i to the whole population (scaled such that σ(i) &(i) = n), and < > denotes an average weighted by &(i)(2). This formula is applied to a catastrophic extinction model (where sites are either empty or at carrying capacity) and to a metapopulation model with explicit dynamics, where extinction is caused by demographic stochasticity and by chaos. Contrary to the expectation from the standard island model, the usual effect of population subdivision is to decrease the effective size relative to a panmictic population living on the same resource.     

Differential migration from high fitness demes in the shining fungus beetle, Phalacrus substriatus

Abstract.— Using data from three years (1994–1996), I tested whether differential migration occurs from demes of high mean fitness in the shining fungus beetle, Phalacrus substriatus . The results show evidence for differential migration, thus providing evidence from a natural population for a critical demographic assumption of many interdemic selection models. To predict the evolutionary response to interdemic selection through differential migration, the genetic basis of the variation among demes in mean fitness must be known because the observed patterns could also be explained by some demes having an intrinsically favorable habitat. Thus, the importance of differential migration through interdemic selection in natural populations cannot be unequivocally answered without experiments specifically addressing the question of what causes differences in mean fitness among demes.     

PERSPECTIVE: THE THEORIES OF FISHER AND WRIGHT IN THE CONTEXT OF METAPOPULATIONS: WHEN NATURE DOES MANY SMALL EXPERIMENTS

We critically review the two major theories of adaptive evolution developed early in this century, Wright's shifting balance theory and Fisher's large population size theory, in light of novel findings from field observations, laboratory experiments, and theoretical research conducted over the past 15 years. Ecological studies of metapopulations have established that the processes of local extinction and colonization of demes are relatively common in natural populations of many species and theoretical population genetic models have shown that these ecological processes have genetic consequences within and among local demes. Within demes, random genetic drift converts nonadditive genetic variance into additive genetic variance, increasing, rather than limiting, the potential for adaptation to local environments. For this reason, the genetic differences that arise by drift among demes, can be augmented by local selection. The resulting adaptive differences in gene combinations potentially contribute to the genetic origin of new species. These and other recent findings were not discussed by either Wright or Fisher. For example, although Wright emphasized epistatic genetic variance, he did not discuss the conversion process. Similarly, Fisher did not discuss how the average additive effect of a gene varies among demes across a metapopulation whenever there is epistasis. We discuss the implications of such recent findings for the Wright-Fisher controversy and identify some critical open questions that require additional empirical and theoretical study.     

Contemporary gene flow and the spatio-temporal genetic structure of subdivided newt populations (Triturus cristatus, T. marmoratus)

Gene flow and drift shape the distribution of neutral genetic diversity in metapopulations, but their local rates are difficult to quantify. To identify gene flow between demes as distinct from individual migration, we present a modified Bayesian method to genetically test for descendants between an immigrant and a resident in a nonmigratory life stage. Applied to a metapopulation of pond-breeding European newts (Triturus cristatus, T. marmoratus) in western France, the evidence for gene flow was usually asymmetric and, for demes of known census size (N), translated into maximally seven reproducing immigrants. Temporal sampling also enabled the joint estimation of the effective demic population size (Ne) and the immigration rate m (including nonreproductive individuals). Ne ranged between 4.1 and 19.3 individuals, Ne/N ranged between 0.05 and 0.65 and always decreased with N; m was estimated as 0.19-0.63, and was possibly biased upwards. We discuss how genotypic data can reveal fine-scale demographic processes with important microevolutionary implications.     

Shift of grey seal subspecies boundaries in response to climate,culling and conservation

Identifying the processes that drive changes in the abundance and distribution of natural populations is a central theme in ecology and evolution. Many species of marine mammals have experienced dramatic changes in abundance and distribution due to climatic fluctuations and anthropogenic impacts. However, thanks to conservation efforts, some of these species have shown remarkable population recovery and are now recolonizing their former ranges. Here, we use zooarchaeological, demographic and genetic data to examine processes of colonization, local extinction and recolonization of the two northern European grey seal subspecies inhabiting the Baltic Sea and North Sea. The zooarchaeological and genetic data suggest that the two subspecies diverged shortly after the formation of the Baltic Sea approximately 4200 years bp , probably through a gradual shift to different breeding habitats and phenologies. By comparing genetic data from 19th century pre‐extinction material with that from seals currently recolonizing their past range, we observed a marked spatiotemporal shift in subspecies boundaries, with increasing encroachment of North Sea seals on areas previously occupied by the Baltic Sea subspecies. Further, both demographic and genetic data indicate that the two subspecies have begun to overlap geographically and are hybridizing in a narrow contact zone. Our findings provide new insights into the processes of colonization, extinction and recolonization and have important implications for the management of grey seals across northern Europe.