Persistent Controversy in Statistical Approaches in Wildlife Sciences: A Perspective of Students

ABSTRACT The controversy over the use of null hypothesis statistical testing (NHST) has persisted for decades, yet NHST remains the most widely used statistical approach in wildlife sciences and ecology. A disconnect exists between those opposing NHST and many wildlife scientists and ecologists who conduct and publish research. This disconnect causes confusion and frustration on the part of students. We, as students, offer our perspective on how this issue may be addressed. Our objective is to encourage academic institutions and advisors of undergraduate and graduate students to introduce students to various statistical approaches so we can make well-informed decisions on the appropriate use of statistical tools in wildlife and ecological research projects. We propose an academic course that introduces students to various statistical approaches (e.g., Bayesian, frequentist, Fisherian, information theory) to build a foundation for critical thinking in applying statistics. We encourage academic advisors to become familiar with the statistical approaches available to wildlife scientists and ecologists and thus decrease bias towards one approach. Null hypothesis statistical testing is likely to persist as the most common statistical analysis tool in wildlife science until academic institutions and student advisors change their approach and emphasize a wider range of statistical methods.     

Hypothesis testing in animal social networks

Behavioural ecologists are increasingly using social network analysis to describe the social organisation of animal populations and to test hypotheses. However, the statistical analysis of network data presents a number of challenges. In particular the non-independent nature of the data violates the assumptions of many common statistical approaches. In our opinion there is currently confusion and uncertainty amongst behavioural ecologists concerning the potential pitfalls when hypotheses testing using social network data. Here we review what we consider to be key considerations associated with the analysis of animal social networks and provide a practical guide to the use of null models based on randomisation to control for structure and non-independence in the data.     

On our best behavior: optimality models in human behavioral ecology

This paper discusses problems associated with the use of optimality models in human behavioral ecology. Optimality models are used in both human and non-human animal behavioral ecology to test hypotheses about the conditions generating and maintaining behavioral strategies in populations via natural selection. The way optimality models are currently used in behavioral ecology faces significant problems, which are exacerbated by employing the so-called ‘phenotypic gambit’: that is, the bet that the psychological and inheritance mechanisms responsible for behavioral strategies will be straightforward. I argue that each of several different possible ways we might interpret how optimality models are being used for humans face similar and additional problems. I suggest some ways in which human behavioral ecologists might adjust how they employ optimality models; in particular, I urge the abandonment of the phenotypic gambit in the human case.     

Distinguishing the roles of dispersal in diversity maintenance and in diversity limitation

Considerable recent research effort has gone into studying how dispersal might affect the diversity of local communities. While this general topic has received attention from theoretical and empirical ecologists alike, the research focus has differed between the two groups; theoretical ecologists have explored the role of dispersal in the maintenance of diversity within local communities, whereas empirical ecologists have sought to quantify the role of dispersal in limiting local diversity. We argue that there is no necessary relationship between these two components of diversity and we therefore need to develop empirical approaches to quantify the dispersal-maintained component of diversity, as well as the dispersal-limited component. We develop one such approach in this paper, based on a quantitative partitioning of the natural regeneration within intact communities onto different sources of recruits (local communityvs. dispersal across different spatial or temporal scales).     

Structural Equation Modeling for Observational Studies

Abstract Structural equation modeling (SEM) represents a framework for developing and evaluating complex hypotheses about systems. This method of data analysis differs from conventional univariate and multivariate approaches familiar to most biologists in several ways. First, SEMs are multiequational and capable of representing a wide array of complex hypotheses about how system components interrelate. Second, models are typically developed based on theoretical knowledge and designed to represent competing hypotheses about the processes responsible for data structure. Third, SEM is conceptually based on the analysis of covariance relations. Most commonly, solutions are obtained using maximum-likelihood solution procedures, although a variety of solution procedures are used, including Bayesian estimation. Numerous extensions give SEM a very high degree of flexibility in dealing with nonnormal data, categorical responses, latent variables, hierarchical structure, multigroup comparisons, nonlinearities, and other complicating factors. Structural equation modeling allows researchers to address a variety of questions about systems, such as how different processes work in concert, how the influences of perturbations cascade through systems, and about the relative importance of different influences. I present 2 example applications of SEM, one involving interactions among lynx (Lynx pardinus), mongooses (Herpestes ichneumon), and rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus), and the second involving anuran species richness. Many wildlife ecologists may find SEM useful for understanding how populations function within their environments. Along with the capability of the methodology comes a need for care in the proper application of SEM.     

Mechanistic models can reveal infection pathways from prevalence data: the mysterious case of polar bears Ursus maritimus and Trichinella nativa

Parasites exhibit a diverse range of life history strategies. Transmission to a host is a key component of each life cycle but the difficulty of observing host–parasite contacts has often led to confusion surrounding transmission pathways. Given limited data on most host–parasite systems, flexible approaches are needed for disentangling the obscure transmission dynamics of these systems. Here, we develop a modelling framework for formally testing long-standing hypotheses regarding how the parasitic nematode Trichinella nativa is maintained at high prevalences in polar bear populations. We evaluated transmission from marine prey, from scavenging terrestrial carrion, from cannibalism and from scavenging on dead infected bears as possible pathways, and assessed their respective importance by comparing model-projected prevalences for each mechanism against observed total and age-specific population prevalences in the Southern Beaufort Sea polar bear subpopulation. Cannibalism and the scavenging on conspecifics have previously been assumed to be critical transmission pathways, but despite data scarcity, our model exposes these mechanisms as ineffective across a wide range of plausible parameter values. Instead, our analyses suggest that transmission from the consumption of infected marine prey, and in particular seals, can explain observed prevalence levels by itself, with other transmission pathways likely playing varying small contributing roles. Furthermore, our model suggests that transmission declines with bear age, perhaps due to age-dependent changes in diet or immunity. By formalising multiple transmission mechanisms in a unified, mathematical framework, we distilled several hypotheses to a likely main mode of T. nativa transmission to polar bears. The specifics of our model are tailored towards the T. nativa-polar bear system, but the approach is easily generalized; it provides a powerful, quantitative means for ecologists to explore competing hypothesis for parasite transmission and other difficult-to-observe animal interactions even in data-poor systems.     

Assessing the impact of climate variation on survival in vertebrate populations

Abstract The impact of the ongoing rapid climate change on natural systems is a major issue for human societies. An important challenge for ecologists is to identify the climatic factors that drive temporal variation in demographic parameters, and, ultimately, the dynamics of natural populations. The analysis of long-term monitoring data at the individual scale is often the only available approach to estimate reliably demographic parameters of vertebrate populations. We review statistical procedures used in these analyses to study links between climatic factors and survival variation in vertebrate populations. We evaluated the efficiency of various statistical procedures from an analysis of survival in a population of white stork, Ciconia ciconia, a simulation study and a critical review of 78 papers published in the ecological literature. We identified six potential methodological problems: (i) the use of statistical models that are not well-suited to the analysis of long-term monitoring data collected at the individual scale; (ii) low ratios of number of statistical units to number of candidate climatic covariates; (iii) collinearity among candidate climatic covariates; (iv) the use of statistics, to assess statistical support for climatic covariates effects, that deal poorly with unexplained variation in survival; (v) spurious detection of effects due to the co-occurrence of trends in survival and the climatic covariate time series; and (vi) assessment of the magnitude of climatic effects on survival using measures that cannot be compared across case studies. The critical review of the ecological literature revealed that five of these six methodological problems were often poorly tackled. As a consequence we concluded that many of these studies generated hypotheses but only few provided solid evidence for impacts of climatic factors on survival or reliable measures of the magnitude of such impacts. We provide practical advice to solve efficiently most of the methodological problems identified. The only frequent issue that still lacks a straightforward solution was the low ratio of the number of statistical units to the number of candidate climatic covariates. In the perspective of increasing this ratio and therefore of producing more robust analyses of the links between climate and demography, we suggest leads to improve the procedures for designing field protocols and selecting a set of candidate climatic covariates. Finally, we present recent statistical methods with potential interest for assessing the impact of climatic factors on demographic parameters.     

The interface between medical anthropology and medical ethnobiology

Medical anthropology is concerned with both the causes and consequences of human sickness, and its various theoretical orientations can be grouped into four major approaches: medical ecology, critical medical anthropology, interpretative medical anthropology, and ethnomedicine. While medical anthropologists of all theoretical persuasions have examined why people get sick, the analysis and understanding of patterns of treatment has been largely confined to ethnomedicine. Historically, more emphasis has been placed on the personalistic or supernatural aspects of ethnomedical systems than on naturalistic or empirical components. While this focus has produced valuable insights into the role of ritual and belief in healing, it has led to the impression that traditional medicine is primarily symbolic. Moreover, it ignores the theoretical bases of traditional healing strategies and the practical means by which most of the world heals itself, namely plants. Recently there has been more interest in the empirical character of ethnomedical systems, and in this paper we consider the role that medical ethnobiology has played in this shift of focus. We begin with a brief history of medical anthropology to illuminate why naturalistic medicine was neglected for so long. We then review exemplary research in two areas of medical ethnobiology – ethnophysiology and medical ethnobotany – that address the study of naturalistic aspects of medical systems. We conclude with suggestions for future research at the interface between medical ethnobiology and medical anthropology that will contribute to both fields.     

Applying evolutionary anthropology

Evolutionary anthropology provides a powerful theoretical framework for understanding how both current environments and legacies of past selection shape human behavioral diversity. This integrative and pluralistic field, combining ethnographic, demographic, and sociological methods, has provided new insights into the ultimate forces and proximate pathways that guide human adaptation and variation. Here, we present the argument that evolutionary anthropological studies of human behavior also hold great, largely untapped, potential to guide the design, implementation, and evaluation of social and public health policy. Focusing on the key anthropological themes of reproduction, production, and distribution we highlight classic and recent research demonstrating the value of an evolutionary perspective to improving human well‐being. The challenge now comes in transforming relevance into action and, for that, evolutionary behavioral anthropologists will need to forge deeper connections with other applied social scientists and policy‐makers. We are hopeful that these developments are underway and that, with the current tide of enthusiasm for evidence‐based approaches to policy, evolutionary anthropology is well positioned to make a strong contribution.     

Human behavioral ecology and niche construction

We examine the relationship between niche construction theory (NCT) and human behavioral ecology (HBE), two branches of evolutionary science that are important sources of theory in archeology. We distinguish between formal models of niche construction as an evolutionary process, and uses of niche construction to refer to a kind of human behavior. Formal models from NCT examine how environmental modification can change the selection pressures that organisms face. In contrast, formal models from HBE predict behavior assuming people behave adaptively in their local setting, and can be used to predict when and why people engage in niche construction. We emphasize that HBE as a field is much broader than foraging theory and can incorporate social and cultural influences on decision‐making. We demonstrate how these approaches can be formally incorporated in a multi‐inheritance framework for evolutionary research, and argue that archeologists can best contribute to evolutionary theory by building and testing models that flexibly incorporate HBE and NCT elements.     

Distribution modelling and statistical phylogeography: an integrative framework for generating and testing alternative biogeographical hypotheses

Statistical phylogeographic studies contribute to our understanding of the factors that influence population divergence and speciation, and that ultimately generate biogeographical patterns. The use of coalescent modelling for analyses of genetic data provides a framework for statistically testing alternative hypotheses about the timing and pattern of divergence. However, the extent to which such approaches contribute to our understanding of biogeography depends on how well the alternative hypotheses chosen capture relevant aspects of species histories. New modelling techniques, which explicitly incorporate spatio-geographic data external to the gene trees themselves, provide a means for generating realistic phylogeographic hypotheses, even for taxa without a detailed fossil record. Here we illustrate how two such techniques – species distribution modelling and its historical extension, palaeodistribution modelling – in conjunction with coalescent simulations can be used to generate and test alternative hypotheses. In doing so, we highlight a few key studies that have creatively integrated both historical geographic and genetic data and argue for the wider incorporation of such explicit integrations in biogeographical studies.     

Computer simulation: The imaginary friend of auxin transport biology

Regulated transport of the plant hormone auxin is central to many aspects of plant development. Directional transport, mediated by membrane transporters, produces patterns of auxin distribution in tissues that trigger developmental processes, such as vascular patterning or leaf formation. Experimentation has produced many, largely qualitative, data providing strong evidence for multiple feedback systems between auxin and its transport. However, the exact mechanisms concerned remain elusive and the experiments required to evaluate alternative hypotheses are challenging. Because of this, computational modelling now plays an important role in auxin transport research. Here we review some current approaches and underlying assumptions of computational auxin transport models. We focus on self‐organising models for polar auxin transport and on recent attempts to unify conflicting mechanistic explanations. In addition, we discuss in general how these computer simulations are proving to be increasingly effective in hypothesis generation and testing, and how simulation can be used to direct future experiments. Editor's suggested further reading in BioEssays Local auxin production: a small contribution to a big field Abstract     

The evolution of cooperative breeding in the African cichlid fish,Neolamprologus pulcher

The conundrum of why subordinate individuals assist dominants at the expense of their own direct reproduction has received much theoretical and empirical attention over the last 50 years. During this time, birds and mammals have taken centre stage as model vertebrate systems for exploring why helpers help. However, fish have great potential for enhancing our understanding of the generality and adaptiveness of helping behaviour because of the ease with which they can be experimentally manipulated under controlled laboratory and field conditions. In particular, the freshwater African cichlid, Neolamprologus pulcher, has emerged as a promising model species for investigating the evolution of cooperative breeding, with 64 papers published on this species over the past 27 years. Here we clarify current knowledge pertaining to the costs and benefits of helping in N. pulcher by critically assessing the existing empirical evidence. We then provide a comprehensive examination of the evidence pertaining to four key hypotheses for why helpers might help: (1) kin selection; (2) pay‐to‐stay; (3) signals of prestige; and (4) group augmentation. For each hypothesis, we outline the underlying theory, address the appropriateness of N. pulcher as a model species and describe the key predictions and associated empirical tests. For N. pulcher, we demonstrate that the kin selection and group augmentation hypotheses have received partial support. One of the key predictions of the pay‐to‐stay hypothesis has failed to receive any support despite numerous laboratory and field studies; thus as it stands, the evidence for this hypothesis is weak. There have been no empirical investigations addressing the key predictions of the signals of prestige hypothesis. By outlining the key predictions of the various hypotheses, and highlighting how many of these remain to be tested explicitly, our review can be regarded as a roadmap in which potential paths for future empirical research into the evolution of cooperative breeding are proposed. Overall, we clarify what is currently known about cooperative breeding in N. pulcher, address discrepancies among studies, caution against incorrect inferences that have been drawn over the years and suggest promising avenues for future research in fishes and other taxonomic groups.     

Advancing ecological understandings through technological transformations in noninvasive genetics

Noninvasive genetic approaches continue to improve studies in molecular ecology, conservation genetics and related disciplines such as forensics and epidemiology. Noninvasive sampling allows genetic studies without disturbing or even seeing the target individuals. Although noninvasive genetic sampling has been used for wildlife studies since the 1990s, technological advances continue to make noninvasive approaches among the most used and rapidly advancing areas in genetics. Here, we review recent advances in noninvasive genetics and how they allow us to address important research and management questions thanks to improved techniques for DNA extraction, preservation, amplification and data analysis. We show that many advances come from the fields of forensics, human health and domestic animal health science, and suggest that molecular ecologists explore literature from these fields. Finally, we discuss how the combination of advances in each step of a noninvasive genetics study, along with fruitful areas for future research, will continually increase the power and role of noninvasive genetics in molecular ecology and conservation genetics.     

The evolution of postpollination reproductive isolation in Costus

Reproductive isolation is critical to the diversification of species. Postpollination barriers may be important in limiting gene flow between closely related species, but they are relatively cryptic and their evolution is poorly understood. Here, we review the role of postpollination reproductive isolation in plants, including the various stages at which it operates and the hypotheses for how it may evolve. We then review empirical studies in the plant genus Costus, evaluating documented postpollination barriers in light of these hypotheses. We summarize isolation due to parental style length differences and present evidence supporting the hypothesis that the differences are in part a by-product of selection on floral morphology. Additionally, we show that reduced pollen adhesion, germination, and tube growth contribute to reproductive isolation between two closely related sympatric species of Costus. Geographic variation in the strength of these crossing barriers supports the hypothesis that they evolved under reinforcement, or direct natural selection to strengthen isolation.     

Future eating and country keeping: what role has environmental history in the management of biodiversity?

In order to understand and moderate the effects of the accelerating rate of global environmental change land managers and ecologists must not only think beyond their local environment but also put their problems into a historical context. It is intuitively obvious that historians should be natural allies of ecologists and land managers as they struggle to maintain biodiversity and landscape health. Indeed, ‘environmental history’ is an emerging field where the previously disparate intellectual traditions of ecology and history intersect to create a new and fundamentally interdisciplinary field of inquiry. Environmental history is rapidly becoming an important field displacing many older environmentally focused academic disciplines as well as capturing the public imagination. By drawing on Australian experience I explore the role of ‘environmental history’ in managing biodiversity. First I consider some of the similarities and differences of the ecological and historical approaches to the history of the environment. Then I review two central questions in Australian environment history: landscape‐scale changes in woody vegetation cover since European settlement and the extinction of the marsupials in both historical and pre‐historical time. These case studies demonstrate that environmental historians can reach conflicting interpretations despite using essentially the same data. The popular success of some environmental histories hinges on the fact that they narrate a compelling story concerning human relationships and human value judgements about landscape change. Ecologists must learn to harness the power of environmental history narratives to bolster land management practices designed to conserve biological heritage. They can do this by using various currently popular environmental histories as a point of departure for future research, for instance by testing the veracity of competing interpretations of landscape‐scale change in woody vegetation cover. They also need to learn how to write parables that communicate their research findings to land managers and the general public. However, no matter how sociologically or psychologically satisfying a particular environmental historical narrative might be, it must be willing to be superseded with new stories that incorporate the latest research discoveries and that reflects changing social values of nature. It is contrary to a rational and publicly acceptable approach to land management to read a particular story as revealing the absolute truth.     

Statistical Versus Biological Hypothesis Testing: Response to Steidl

ABSTRACT In spite of the wide use and acceptance of information theoretic approaches in the wildlife sciences, debate continues on the correct use and interpretation of Akaike's Information Criterion as compared to frequentist methods. Misunderstandings as to the fundamental nature of such comparisons continue. Here we agree with Steidl's argument about situation-specific use of each approach. However, Steidl did not make clear the distinction between statistical and biological hypotheses. Certainly model selection is not statistical, or null, hypothesis testing; importantly, it represents a more effective means to test among competing biological, or research, hypotheses. Employed correctly, it leads to superior strength of inference and reduces the risk that favorite hypotheses are uncritically accepted.     

The evolution of different maternal investment strategies in two closely related desert vertebrates

We compared egg size phenotypes and tested several predictions from the optimal egg size (OES) and bet‐hedging theories in two North American desert‐dwelling sister tortoise taxa, Gopherus agassizii and G. morafkai, that inhabit different climate spaces: relatively unpredictable and more predictable climate spaces, respectively. Observed patterns in both species differed from the predictions of OES in several ways. Mean egg size increased with maternal body size in both species. Mean egg size was inversely related to clutch order in G. agassizii, a strategy more consistent with the within‐generation hypothesis arising out of bet‐hedging theory or a constraint in egg investment due to resource availability, and contrary to theories of density dependence, which posit that increasing hatchling competition from later season clutches should drive selection for larger eggs. We provide empirical evidence that one species, G. agassizii, employs a bet‐hedging strategy that is a combination of two different bet‐hedging hypotheses. Additionally, we found some evidence for G. morafkai employing a conservative bet‐hedging strategy. (e.g., lack of intra‐ and interclutch variation in egg size relative to body size). Our novel adaptive hypothesis suggests the possibility that natural selection favors smaller offspring in late‐season clutches because they experience a more benign environment or less energetically challenging environmental conditions (i.e., winter) than early clutch progeny, that emerge under harsher and more energetically challenging environmental conditions (i.e., summer). We also discuss alternative hypotheses of sexually antagonistic selection, which arise from the trade‐offs of son versus daughter production that might have different optima depending on clutch order and variation in temperature‐dependent sex determination (TSD) among clutches. Resolution of these hypotheses will require long‐term data on fitness of sons versus daughters as a function of incubation environment, data as yet unavailable for any species with TSD.