Optimal path for sustainable development under the dual constraints based on endogenous growth algorithm

Constructing an economic growth model comprising dual resource and environmental constraints by introducing both environmental quality and non-renewable resources as endogenous factors also introducing the production and utility functions. This was used to systematically analyze the endogenous mechanism through factors such as non-renewable resource consumption, environmental pollution externalities, the accumulation of physical capital, human capital development, and endogenous technological advancement could influence long-term economic growth. The basic conclusion of the model suggests that under both resource and environmental constraints, it is investment in both human capital and research & innovation that is the main driving and determining factor for long-term sustainable economic growth. The optimal development strategy of economic sustainability can be achieved through supporting human capital accumulation and technological innovation activities, promoting the advancement of clean production technologies, and formulating stringent environmental standards, as well as strengthening the society’s awareness of the environment and sustainable development.     

Systematics,conservation and sustainable development

The contribution of systematics to conservation and sustainable use of species is discussed. An adequate inventory of species is required for both areas and recent field work shows that the inventory is far from complete. This supports the first mission of Agenda 2000 which is to discover described and inventory global species diversity. The importance of making these data available in data base format is stressed. Sound systematics is a necessity for conservation legislation where control depends on the ability to identify organisms correctly. The establishment of reserves is also dependent upon data from systematics about centres of diversity and endemism and examples of this are given. Molecular systematics has made new tools available to conservation such as genetic fingerprinting which is useful both to breeding programmes of rare species and for identification for legal proceedings.Systematics is also one of the foundations for programmes of sustainable development especially in the search for new crops, non-timber forest plants from extraction forests and the identification of wild relatives of crop species. Examples of the role of systematics in a fuelwood programme in Zimbabwe, a sustainable development programme in northeast Brazil and in the search for a chemical component with medicinal properties for curing AIDS are given. The more predictive a classification we can develop using modern cladistic and molecular techniques the more useful systematics will be for both conservation and sustainable development. The goal of Agenda 2000 to organize the information derived from the programme in an efficiently retrievable form that best meets the needs of science and society is a laudable target that is crucial for conservation and the sustainable use of the plant resources of the world.     

中国可持续发展政策试点文献计量研究——以可持续发展实验区和可持续发展议程创新示范区为例

可持续发展实验区（以下简称"实验区"）是一项地方试点示范工作,倡导实验区基于自身特点设计实验主题,自行探索可持续发展的典型做法,依靠科技创新解决制约可持续发展的问题。作为可持续发展领域建设时间最长、覆盖规模最广、实验主题最为多样的政策试点,实验区已经积累了一定的研究,现有文献多集中于对发展理念的概念和框架探讨、可持续发展水平综合评估、区域发展耦合度和协调度计算、以及可持续发展投入产出效率差异等,为实验区理论研究和政策实践打下基础。为了系统梳理实验区研究的整体演进情况,为未来研究提供一个较为全面的参考,从文献计量的视角,对实验区和可持续发展议程创新示范区（以下简称"创新示范区"）为主题的研究进行科学知识图谱分析,厘清实验区研究的阶段性特点、研究领域、核心问题、前沿热点和科学合作网络结构,基于此提出未来可能的研究方向。研究结果表明实验区主题的发文量总体上呈波动趋势,研究者和研究机构的局部性合作较强;研究的核心问题始终围绕可持续发展在实验区的政策实践;研究前沿与宏观经济社会发展背景相呼应,其中可持续发展战略实施一直都是热点问题;经历了从可持续发展理念普及到可持续发展实践模式的历程。在可持续发展目标（SDGs）这一全球新形势下,为了更好地发挥实验区和创新示范区作为政策试点的作用,提出未来的研究方向：一是加强与SDGs研究的衔接;二是增加科技创新驱动可持续发展的研究;三是推进可持续发展典型问题和解决方案的系统研究。     

广东林业可持续发展问题探讨

面对广东林业新的发展机遇,以最新的资源数据,从科学发展观的角度,通过对广东林业建设现状的分析,指出了广东林业目前迫切需要解决的问题,探讨了在新形势下适合广东实际的林业可持续发展道路,进而对贯彻“以人为本,生态优先”、发展以生态建设为主的现代林业,实现广东林业的可持续发展提出了策略性的建议。     

Kinetic Model Development for Accelerated Stability Studies

Accelerated stability coupled with modeling to predict the stability of compounds, blends, and products at long-term storage conditions provides significant benefits in science-based decision-making throughout drug substance and drug product development. The study can often be completed, including data analysis in the space of three working weeks, and the information gathered and learning made in this time period can rival years of traditional analysis. The speed of the studies allows an earlier assessment of risk to quality enabling appropriate risk mitigation strategies to be implemented in a timely manner. The scientific foundation is based upon Arrhenius kinetic equations that can be linear or nonlinear in time, and can be based upon water vapor pressure or liquid water activity (relative humidity). A variety of kinetic models are evaluated, and the best model is chosen based upon both Bayesian information criteria and an automated assessment of kinetic model parameters fitting within acceptable ranges. Confidence intervals are estimated based upon a bootstrapping approach. Moisture vapor transmission rate models are applied on top of the resulting kinetic models in order to simulate different packaging types and the use of desiccant. The kinetic models are integrated with the prediction of packaging humidity over time to create a long-term prediction of impurities and other phenomena. The resulting models have been shown to be useful for not only the prediction of drug product impurities in long-term storage but other physical phenomena as well such as hydrate development and solvate loss.     

Sustainable Forestry and Local People: The Case of Hainan’s Li Minority

On the island of Hainan, China, the provincial government has recently committed itself to sustainable development, which requires the integration of social, environmental, and economic factors in decision making. However, while Hainan’s recent Eco-province designation establishes environmental and economic factors as the basis of policy development, it overlooks the equally important social component of sustainability, in which social needs and values are key considerations. This paper presents the results of a study on Hainan in 2002, with government officials, forestry workers, and the Li, an indigenous minority group, and places the province’s situation within the context of both the larger changes underway in China, and the theory and practice of sustainable forestry. The research results show that the government of Hainan has not yet been able to manage both social welfare and environmental and economic issues, demonstrating the difficulty of implementing sustainable forestry and of balancing short- with long-term goals. The inclusion of Li communities in forestry-related decision making could reduce tensions between local communities and forestry management and also improve the sustainability of the government’s forestry practices.

基于生态系统服务层级关联性的景感营造实现途径

生态系统服务是建设人类与生态系统和谐共处的桥梁,景感营造是维持可持续发展的重要途径。然而两者之间的关系并不清晰,这限制了景感营造的实践和功能发挥。从人类需求的角度论证了生态系统服务的层级关联性,生态系统所提供的支持服务、供给服务、调节服务和文化服务具有依次发展的层级关系并且各服务之间相互协同。生态系统服务为景感营造提供愿景与载体,景感营造保持、改善与增强生态系统服务,景感营造的作用与生态系统服务的效能相辅相成。最后基于生态系统服务的层级关联性与可持续发展的建设路径提出景感营造的实现途径:(1)生态系统服务供给的物质愿景与载体通过农业景观、大地艺术的建造方式体现物质的精神内涵;(2)生态系统服务提供的精神愿景与载体通过建设文化景观、展现生态文化的方式把精神内涵物质化。不同景感营造途径的构建其目的都是通过生态系统各类型服务之间的协同作用来实现景感的整体化表达从而增强可持续发展。本研究分析结果有助于为生态系统服务价值衡量和景感生态规划提供理论基础。     

Development, potentials, and challenges of the International Long-Term Ecological Research (ILTER) Network

In order to review the development, the potentials, and the challenges of the International Long-Term Ecological Research (ILTER) Network, the necessity for the development of the ILTER Network, the development of ILTER activities in the world, and the body structures of ILTER Network are described. As an example for showing the potentials of ILTER activities, exemplary results of tree growth studies carried out by the author utilizing long-term daily weather data at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA are presented and future potentials are discussed. At this time, as the ILTER Network is situated at a critical point, challenges for the ILTER Network are discussed with regard to its further development. In this review, the author tries to maintain that as the long-term ecological research, whose results can secure comparability in the dimension of time and space, can provide us with a fundamental basis for sound understanding and management of ecosystems, we can publicize the activities and findings from the ILTER Network to the public, on from local to international levels, to continue further efforts around the world for our sustainable future.     

Valuing wetland conservation: A contingent valuation analysis among Iranian beneficiaries

Wetland ecosystems conservation is a critical environmental policy and practice challenge. Though policy protection mechanisms ostensibly establish a commitment to long-term protection, the level and types of wetland threats are growing. Management of sustainable wetland resources requires community commitments to protection amongst predominantly rural stakeholders that draw upon wetland ecosystem services for their livelihoods and is vital to forming a policy strategy. This empirical study uses contingent valuation methodology with rural residents around four key wetlands areas in the ecologically fragile Khuzestan province in Iran. We find that 65% of the residents are willing to pay an amount of personal income to protect wetland ecosystems. The estimated Logit model with 84% prediction accuracy showed the variables of education and job relationship with the wetland had a positive effect on the probability of price acceptance, and the variables of living costs and marital status had a negative effect on the probability of price acceptance. In total, the conservation value of wetlands is estimated at 103351.52 USD. Finally, we assess the policy-relevance of our findings towards community windfall payments, tax disbursements, community resource management schemes, public participation, and social outreach programs to improve social learning buy-in to long-term conservation practices.     

农牧交错带农牧复合系统的可持续机制

农牧复合系统具有综合资源、兼顾生态与生计、环境与经济发展的作用,是农牧交错带脱贫富民的必由之路。目前,农牧复合实践迫切需要建立可持续的运行机制。针对于此,运用农户调查、土地养分测定和农牧测产、分室模型等方法,对宁夏盐池县皖记沟村农牧复合系统的资源支持、农户农牧复合生产方式、农牧复合系统的物质流开展研究。结果表明,促进农牧复合系统发展的主要原因是资源基础和耕地、灌木林地、草地系统耦合的生产方式。目前主要生产饲草料的水浇地和柠条林地的水资源可持续性是农牧复合系统能否长期持续的关键。加强水土资源、饲草料生产和滩羊养殖之间的系统调控和整体协同,是农牧交错带农牧复合系统可持续发展的必然选择。     

城市可持续发展新型定量研究方法进展

城市体现了集约化的发展方式,以仅占陆地3%的面积承载了世界一多半的人口,因此城市是人类社会可持续发展的主阵地,城市可持续发展是区域可持续发展的重要实践。研究试图从可持续发展的基本内涵着手,聚焦于城市尺度的研究,梳理了相关理论和概念演变历程,着重对新型定量方法——评价指标体系法、复杂系统建模、资源环境可持续性探索等进行综述。研究发现指标体系法常用于传统的城市可持续发展评估,大多是针对表象的分析,隔离了系统内部的组织关联,对系统机理探索不够。资源环境对人类社会的发展起到基础支撑作用,从资源环境可持续性出发研究可持续发展诞生了一些较为创新的方法,但研究集中在描述人类对自然的压力和影响,而对于自然对人类的反馈以及人对自然的积极改造探索不足,也很难直接表达系统整体的可持续性。弹性思维和复杂系统科学近年来被多次用于解释城市运行的灰箱模型,但研究稍浅。研究提出可将弹性思维和复杂系统科学结合起来,借助数据科学和计算科学的新兴方法,分析城市的可持续发展,深入探索可持续性的科学表达和深层机理,为解决复杂的城市问题提供科学指导,为城市可持续发展提供理论依据。     

Modelling the hydro-geochemistry of acid-sensitive catchments in Finland under atmospheric deposition and biomass harvesting scenarios

The dynamic hydro-geochemical Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC) was used to predict the response of 163 Finnish lake catchments to historic and future atmospheric deposition (1880–2100) and future tree harvesting practices. Deposition was assumed to follow current legislated European emission reduction policies (CLe) and a scenario based on maximum (technically) feasible reductions (MFR). Future harvesting was assumed to shift from stem-only harvesting (SOH) to whole-tree harvesting (WTH) owing to the potential increased utilisation of biofuels. Despite the modest changes in atmospheric deposition under CLe (compared to current day), these reductions are predicted to halt the decline in soil base saturation; however, further reductions are required to improve soil and lake water chemistry. The MFR scenario predicted a significant long-term improvement in soil base saturation leading to continued long-term recovery in surface waters (all lakes with ANC > 0 by 2100). However under the WTH scenario, significant long-term impacts (re-acidification) were predicted for soil and surface water chemistry (14 lakes with ANC < 0 by 2100). To some extent the long-term negative impacts were reduced under MFR, indicating that increased utilisation of biofuels will necessitate ‘trading emissions for timber’, or soil amendment, to maintain ecosystem quality and sustainable forest growth. The current practice of SOH is close to the sustainable maximum harvesting under current (legislated) atmospheric deposition in Finland.     

The challenges of long-term invasive mammal management: lessons from the UK

We consider the motivations, strategies, and costs involved in invasive mammal management undertaken in the UK. Widespread established invasive mammals require long-term management to limit damage or spread, but ongoing management is costly and complex. Long-term management is most effective where it is applied at a landscape scale, but this requires overarching co-ordination between multiple stakeholders. Five challenges for successful long-term management of invasive mammal species are identified as follows: defining landscape-scale strategies, management co-ordination, stakeholder and community engagement, sustainable funding, and evidence requirements. We make recommendations on the supportive infrastructure needed for effective landscape-scale management of invasive mammals to fulfil long-term conservation aims, as follows. 1. There is a need for evidence-based Invasive Species Action Plans to provide strategy for the long-term ongoing management of prioritised species at appropriate scales. 2. Where possible, multispecies approaches to invasive species management should be adopted. 3. Trusted leadership should be identified to take ownership of Action Plans and provide an overarching co-ordination to bring individuals, organisations, and funders together. 4. Support for a centralised hub for training, data, and knowledge flows will greatly improve scientific outcomes through a searchable evidence base, and via best practice and knowledge sharing.     

珠江三角洲的人口时空变化及其对资源和环境的影响

改革开放以来,随着珠江三角洲经济的高速发展同时,该区人口大幅增长,对资源、环境的压力不断增大,制约着该区社会经济的持续发展。本文分析了近年来该区的人口时空变化情况及其与经济发展之间的互动关系,指出人口增长使该区土地资源和森林资源人均占有量进一步降低,大气和水环境污染加重。因此,解决人口问题是实现珠江三角洲可持续发展的关键。严格控制人口。合理利用资源,优化产业结构,增加环保投资和加强区域整体协调是珠江三角洲实现可持续发展的基本对策。     

The Energetic Metabolism of Societies Part I: Accounting Concepts

Based upon the currently emerging international consensus on how to account for the materials flows of industrialized countries, this article proposes methods to account for the energetic metabolism of societies. It argues that, to fully exploit the potential of the metabolism approach in the context of sustainable development, both energetic and material aspects of societal metabolism have to be taken into account. The article proposes concepts to empirically describe energy input, internal energy transformations, and energy utilization of societies by extending commonly used notions of energy statistics in a way that is compatible with current methods of materials flow analysis. Whereas energy statistics include only the energy used in technical devices for providing heat, light, mechanical work, and data processing, an accounting system for the energetic metabolism of societies should also consider flows of nutritional energy for both livestock and humans. Moreover, in assessing the energy input of a society, all inputs of energy-rich materials (and immaterial forms of energy such as electricity and light) that cross the boundary into the biophysical structures of society should be taken into consideration, regardless of the purpose for which they are eventually used. As a consequence, an energetic metabolism accounting system treats all biomass as energy input, instead of considering only the biomass used for technical energy generation, as energy statistics do. Part II in this set of articles will apply these concepts to different modes of societal organization and explore the significance of energetic metabolism for sustainable development. In particular, it will explore the significance for policies that aim at increasing the contribution of renewable energy, especially biomass.     

Effect of fencing and grazing on a Kobresia-dominated meadow in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Grazing is one of the most important factors influencing community structure and productivity in natural grasslands. Fencing to exclude grazers is one of the main management practices used to protect grasslands. Can fencing improve grassland community status by restraining grazing? We conducted a field community study and indoor soil analyses to determine the long-term effects of fencing and grazing on the above-ground community and soil in a Kobresia-dominated meadow in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, NW China. Our results showed that fencing significantly improved above-ground vegetation productivity but reduced plant density and species diversity. Long-term fencing favored the improvement of forage grass functional groups and restrained the development noxious weed functional groups. There were significant positive effects of fencing on below-ground organic matter, total nitrogen, available nitrogen, total phosphorus and available phosphorus. The productivity of grazed meadow showed a weak decrease over time. There were long-term decreasing trends for plant density both in fenced and grazed meadows. Our study suggests that grazing can be considered as a useful management practice to improve species diversity and plant density in long-term fenced grasslands and that periodic grazing and fencing is beneficial in grassland management.     

Evaluation of the Q-method as a method of public participation in the selection of sustainable development indicators

The complexity of sustainable development means that it is often difficult to evaluate and communicate the concept effectively. One standard method to reduce complexity and improve communication, while maintaining scientific objectivity, is to use selected indicators. The aim of this paper is to describe and evaluate a process of public participation in the selection of sustainable development indicators that utilised the Q-method for discourse analysis. The Q-method was utilised to combine public opinion with technical expertise to create a list of technically robust indicators that would be relevant to the public. The method comprises statement collection, statement analysis, Q-sorts and Q-sort analysis. The results of the Q-method generated a list of statements for which a preliminary list of indicators was then developed by a team of experts from the fields of environmental science, sustainable development and psychology. Subsequently members of the public evaluated the preliminary list of indicators, to select a final list of indicators that were both technically sound and incorporated the views of the public. The utilisation of the Q-method in this process was evaluated using previously published criteria. The application of the Q-method in this context needs to be considered not only by the quality of the indicators developed, but also from the perspective of the benefit of the process to the participants. It was concluded that the Q-method provided an effective framework for public participation in the selection of indicators as it allowed the public to discuss sustainable development in familiar language and in the context of their daily lives. By combining this information with expert input, a list of technically robust indicators that resonate with the public was developed. The results demonstrated that many citizens are not aware of sustainable development, and if it is to be successfully communicated to them, then indicators and policy need to be couched in terms familiar and relevant to citizen and communities.     

Worm control in sheep in the future

Endoparasitic infestations cost the livestock industry many millions of pounds each year through losses in productivity and the costs of control measures. Effective control of these endemic ubiquitous diseases is important, particularly given the expanding world population and the expectation of an increasing demand for ruminant products. Currently, these debilitating ruminant infestations can be controlled prophylactically by using chemotherapy, immunomanipulation and/or management of the grazing environment, but most farmers currently rely upon having effective anthelmintics. Unfortunately, studies on the incidence and prevalence of anthelmintic resistance throughout the world suggest that production systems that are wholly reliant upon intensive chemotherapy/prophylaxis are not sustainable. Current research is examining chemical strategies that will provide good worm control and will also enable the conservation of efficacy of our current and any novel anthelmintics. Maintaining an infra- and supra-population of worms in refugia (i.e., unexposed to anthelmintics) is accepted by most veterinary parasitologists as the best means of maintaining the genes for susceptibility within the parasite population. Maintained susceptibility within a parasite population can be achieved in a variety of ways, all of which utilise a targeted treatment approach to some extent. Whole flock targeted treatment can be optimised using faecal egg count monitoring and individuals can have targeted selective treatments administered on the basis of morbidity markers, such as anaemia, production efficiency assessed by liveweight gain or milk production. There is also a growing interest in bioactive forages, which can have both direct anthelmintic effects and/or indirect anthelmintic effects, where the benefit derives from nutritional effects which boost the host immune responses against nematodes. In the future, arguably the most exciting area is that of immunomanipulation, where current advances in genomics and proteomics offer scope for the development of vaccines and genetic or bio-markers associated with infection or effective immunity. We have been able to identify and select genetically resistant animals for many years by using phenotypic markers for endoparasitism, but it is only recently that the first genetic marker for host resistance has become available. Further research is also needed to identify better phenotypic and genotypic markers for resilience, since in some production systems this may be a more desirable trait than resistance. The implementation of an integrated approach to control to develop sustainable control strategies represents a formidable challenge for the sheep industry. This integrated approach will require well-informed veterinarians; advisors and researchers will need to find the tools to support the practitioners, as well as to find ways of delivering them in an affordable way. Although at present these demands may seem both unobtainable and unaffordable, the development of collaborative multidisciplinary research programmes coupled with advancing high throughput technologies offers the prospect of real progress in this area in future.     

养分管理对农田土壤微生物量的影响

土壤微生物与土壤质量、健康、植物的生产力和农业的可持续发展密切相关。任何对土壤中微生物的扰动都可能影响土壤的长期生产力,并可能产生严重后果。大量研究结果表明,肥料类型、施肥处理年限长短、施肥水平高低及施肥措施都会造成土壤成分的变化,进而影响土壤中微生物的生长以及繁殖。简要介绍了微生物量的几种测定方法,综述了各种养分管理措施对农田生态系统中土壤微生物量的影响,从而了解土壤微生物因人类对土壤的利用而发生的变化,以期为农业的可持续发展和生态环境的保护提供理论依据。     

美国农业生态学发展综述

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