Space-for-time substitution reveals a hump-shaped distribution of dung beetles

Unraveling how climate change impacts the diversity and distribution patterns of organisms is a major concern in ecology, especially with climate-sensitive species, such as dung beetles. Often found in warmer weather conditions, beetles are used as bio-indicators of environmental conditions. By using an altitudinal gradient as a proxy for climate change (i.e., space-for-time substitution), we assessed how changes in climatic variables, such as temperature and precipitation, impact patterns of dung beetle diversity and distribution in the Peruvian Andes. We recorded dung beetle diversity using three different types of baits, feces, carrion, and fruits, distributed in 18 pitfall traps in five different altitudinal sites (from 900 to 2500 m, 400 m apart from each other) in the rainy and dry season. We found that (i) dung beetle richness and abundance were influenced by the climate gradient, (ii) seasonality influenced beetle richness, which was high in the wet season, but did not influence abundance, (iii) dung beetle richness and abundance fit to a hump-shaped distribution pattern along the altitudinal gradient, and (iv) species richness is the beta-diversity component that best describes the composition of dung beetle species along the altitudinal gradient. Our data show that the distribution and diversity of dung beetles are different at larger scales, with different patterns resulting from the response of species to both abiotic and biotic factors.     

Altitude acts as an environmental filter on phylogenetic composition,traits and diversity in bee communities

Knowledge about the phylogeny and ecology of communities along environmental gradients helps to disentangle the role of competition-driven processes and environmental filtering for community assembly. In this study, we evaluated patterns in species richness, phylogenetic structure and life-history traits of bee communities along altitudinal gradients in the Alps, Germany. We found a linear decline in species richness and abundance but increasing phylogenetic clustering in communities with increasing altitude. The proportion of social- and ground-nesting species, as well as mean body size and altitudinal range of bee communities, increased with increasing altitude, whereas the mean geographical distribution decreased. Our results suggest that community assembly at high altitudes is dominated by environmental filtering effects, whereas the relative importance of competition increases at low altitudes. We conclude that inherent phylogenetic and ecological species attributes at high altitudes pose a threat for less competitive alpine specialists with ongoing climate change.     

Distribution and abundance of butterflies in a mountain area in the northern Iberian peninsula

The effect of alutudinal range, distance to the latitudinal boundary of geographical range, body size and larval food plant on both the distribution and abundance of butterflies have been studied in a mountain area along a marked altitudinal gradient Multiple regression analysis revealed that distribution was positively related to altitudinal range and abundance Altitudinal range accounted for a great part of vanance in species distribution Altitudinal range increased as both distance to latitudinal boundary of geographical range and body size increased Abundance was not affected by altitudinal range, body size or distance to latitudinal boundary Larval food plants family was related to the abundance of butterflies, but not to distribution or altitudinal range These results suggest that regional distributions of butterflies are likely to be limited by climatic tolerances of species, while local abundance might be influenced by local resource levels     

How do species respond to climate change along an elevation gradient? A case study of the grey‐headed robin (Heteromyias albispecularis)

Climate is predicted to change rapidly in the current century, which may lead to shifts of species' ranges, reduced populations and extinctions. Predicting the responses of species abundance to climate change can provide valuable information to quantify climate change impacts and inform their management and conservation, but most studies have been limited to changes in habitat area due to a lack of abundance data. Here, we use generalized linear model and Bayesian information criteria to develop a predictive model based on the abundance of the grey‐headed robin (GHR) and the data of climatic environmental variables. The model is validated by leave‐one‐out cross‐validation and equivalence tests. The responses of GHR abundance, population size and habitat area by elevation are predicted under the current climate and 15 climate change scenarios. The model predicts that when temperature increases, abundance of GHR displays a positive response at high elevation, but a negative response at low elevation. High precipitation at the higher elevations is a limiting factor to GHR and any reduction in precipitation at high elevation creates a more suitable environment, leading to an increase in abundance of GHR, whereas changes in precipitation have little impact at low elevation. The loss of habitat is much more than would otherwise be assumed in response to climate change. Temperature increase is the predominant factor leading to habitat loss, whereas changes in precipitation play a secondary role. When climate changes, the species not only loses part of its habitat but also suffers a loss in its population size in the remaining habitat. Population size declines more than the habitat area under all considered climate change scenarios, which implies that the species might become extinct long before the complete loss of its habitat. This study suggests that some species might experience much more severe impacts from climate change than predicted from models of habitat area alone. Management policies based on predictions of habitat area decline using occurrence data need to be re‐evaluated and alternative measures need to be developed to conserve species in the face of rapid climate change.     

Butterfly diversity and historical land cover change along an altitudinal gradient

Land cover and climate change are both major threats for biodiversity. In mountain ecosystems species have to adapt to fragmented habitats and harsh environmental conditions but so far, altitudinal effects in combination with land cover change have been rarely studied. The objective of this study was to determine the effects of altitude and historical land cover change on butterfly diversity. We studied species richness patterns of butterflies occuring in wetlands and other open habitats along an altitudinal gradient in a low mountain region (340–750 m a.s.l., Bavaria, Germany) with drastic loss of open habitats within the last 40–60 years. We recorded in 27 sites a total of 4,523 individuals of 49 butterfly species and five species of burnet moths. Species richness peaked at mid elevation and increased with patch size. Land cover change was most pronounced at high altitudes, but neither current open habitats, nor the historical loss of open habitats affected the species richness of butterflies. Neither open land specialized butterflies nor generalist and forest species were significantly affected by the loss of open habitats. However, increasing forest area in high altitudes reduces possible refuge open habitats for butterflies at their thermal distribution limits. This could lead to extinction of such butterfly species when temperatures further rise due to global warming.     

Species richness and trait composition of butterfly assemblages change along an altitudinal gradient

Species richness patterns along altitudinal gradients are well-documented ecological phenomena, yet very little data are available on how environmental filtering processes influence the composition and traits of butterfly assemblages at high altitudes. We have studied the diversity patterns of butterfly species at 34 sites along an altitudinal gradient ranging from 600 to 2,000 m a.s.l. in the National Park Berchtesgaden (Germany) and analysed traits of butterfly assemblages associated with dispersal capacity, reproductive strategies and developmental time from lowlands to highlands, including phylogenetic analyses. We found a linear decline in butterfly species richness along the altitudinal gradient, but the phylogenetic relatedness of the butterfly assemblages did not increase with altitude. Compared to butterfly assemblages at lower altitudes, those at higher altitudes were composed of species with larger wings (on average 9 %) which laid an average of 68 % more eggs. In contrast, egg maturation time in butterfly assemblages decreased by about 22 % along the altitudinal gradient. Further, butterfly assemblages at higher altitudes were increasingly dominated by less widespread species. Based on our abundance data, but not on data in the literature, population density increased with altitude, suggesting a reversed density–distribution relationship, with higher population densities of habitat specialists in harsh environments. In conclusion, our data provide evidence for significant shifts in the composition of butterfly assemblages and for the dominance of different traits along the altitudinal gradient. In our study, these changes were mainly driven by environmental factors, whereas phylogenetic filtering played a minor role along the studied altitudinal range.     

Elevational patterns of species richness, range and body size for spiny frogs

Quantifying spatial patterns of species richness is a core problem in biodiversity theory. Spiny frogs of the subfamily Painae (Anura: Dicroglossidae) are widespread, but endemic to Asia. Using spiny frog distribution and body size data, and a digital elevation model data set we explored altitudinal patterns of spiny frog richness and quantified the effect of area on the richness pattern over a large altitudinal gradient from 0-5000 m a.s.l. We also tested two hypotheses: (i) the Rapoport's altitudinal effect is valid for the Painae, and (ii) Bergmann's clines are present in spiny frogs. The species richness of Painae across four different altitudinal band widths (100 m, 200 m, 300 m and 400 m) all showed hump-shaped patterns along altitudinal gradient. The altitudinal changes in species richness of the Paini and Quasipaini tribes further confirmed this finding, while the peak of Quasipaini species richness occurred at lower elevations than the maxima of Paini. The area did not explain a significant amount of variation in total, nor Paini species richness, but it did explain variation in Quasipaini. Five distinct groups across altitudinal gradient were found. Species altitudinal ranges did not expand with an increase in the midpoints of altitudinal ranges. A significant negative correlation between body size and elevation was exhibited. Our findings demonstrate that Rapoport's altitudinal rule is not a compulsory attribute of spiny frogs and also suggest that Bergmann's rule is not generally applicable to amphibians. The study highlights a need to explore the underlying mechanisms of species richness patterns, particularly for amphibians in macroecology.     

北京东灵山海拔梯度上辽东栎种群结构和空间分布

种群年龄结构和空间分布格局是种群生态学的核心研究内容.为了阐明辽东栎种群海拔梯度分布特点,在北京东灵山地区辽东栎海拔分布范围(1000～1800m)内调查10条样带,研究种群大小级结构和空间分布的变异.种群的平均胸径在海拔梯度上表现出两段式的分布特征,海拔1480m为两段分布的分界点,在每一段内随海拔增加平均胸径也增加, 这反映了海拔梯度上种群的不同发育历史.种群密度、种群的聚集程度、种群的结构在海拔梯度上的分布特征都与平均胸径分布相似,种群密度和聚集程度与平均胸径为负相关系,其分布趋势与平均胸径相反.总体上,东灵山海拔梯度上辽东栎种群还是比较稳定的.辽东栎种群结构和空间分布在海拔梯度上的分布特征是种群发育历史、物种特性、环境、干扰等因素在海拔梯度上综合作用的结果.     

Water-energy relationships shape the phylogenetic diversity of terricolous lichen communities in Mediterranean mountains: Implications for conservation in a climate change scenario

Lichens are symbiotic organisms sensitive to climate change and susceptible to a severe decline in diversity, especially in high elevation environments that are already threatened. In this study, we focused on water-energy relationships derived from climatic variables and phylogenetic diversity indices of terricolous lichen communities occurring on a representative Mediterranean mountain. We hypothesized that the variation of precipitation and temperature and their interaction along the altitudinal gradient will shape the phylogenetic diversity and structure of lichen communities. Our results reveal that dry and arid conditions lead to a strong loss in phylogenetic diversity with consequent impoverishment of high elevation lichen communities under a climate change scenario. The interaction between variables, reflecting water-energy relationships with phylogenetic and community diversity patterns, suggests that in a future climate change scenario, the novel climatic conditions may reduce the capability of the species to survive harsher conditions, and Mediterranean mountains may face a severe loss of genetic diversity in a climate change scenario.     

Patterns of diversity, altitudinal range and body size among freshwater fishes in the Yangtze River basin, China

Aim To document patterns in diversity, altitudinal range and body size of freshwater fishes along an elevational gradient in the Yangtze River basin. Location The Yangtze River basin, China. Methods We used published data to compile the distribution, altitudinal range and body size of freshwater fishes. Correlation, regression, clustering and graphical analyses were used to explore patterns in diversity, altitudinal range and body size of freshwater fishes in 100‐m elevation zones from 0 to 5200 m. Results Species richness patterns across the elevational gradient for total, non‐endemic and endemic fishes were different. The ratio of endemics to total richness peaked at mid elevation. Land area on a 500‐m interval scale explained a significant amount of the variation in species richness. Species density displayed two peaks at mid‐elevation zones. The cluster analysis revealed five distinct assemblages across the elevation gradient. The relationship between elevational range size and the midpoint of the elevational range revealed a triangular distribution. The frequency distribution of log maximum standard length data displayed an atypical right‐skewed pattern. Intermediate body sizes occurred across the greatest range of elevation while small and large body sizes possessed only small elevational amplitudes. The size‐elevation relationship between the two major families revealed a very strong pattern of body size constraint among the Cobitidae with no corresponding elevational constraint and a lot of body size and elevational diversification among the Cyprinidae. Main conclusion The data failed to support either Rapoport's rule or Bergmann's rule.     

The distribution of adult blow-flies (Diptera: Calliphoridae) along an altitudinal gradient in Central Spain

The distribution of Calliphoridae along an altitudinal gradient was investigated in Central Spain using carrion-baited traps. Significant differences were found between elevation and mean abundances of almost all species of blow-flies. Several species of flies could be grouped according to their altitudinal preferences so that samples at high elevations are defined by Calliphora vomitoria and Calliphora vicina while samples at low elevations are defined by two thermophilous species: Lucilia sericata and Chrysomya albiceps. The remaining species show preferences for mid-elevations where wooded areas are more characteristic along the altitudinal gradient. Calliphora vomitoria and Chrysomya albiceps are the most abundant species representing the 87.74 % of all captures. Both species are spatially segregated along the altitudinal gradient. The changing patterns of abundance are discussed in relation to differences in climate conditions along the altitudinal gradient concluding that the environmental variables that influence the seasonality of many species also play an important role to explain the spatial distribution.     

Altitudinal patterns of plant species richness on the Baekdudaegan Mountains, South Korea: mid-domain effect, area, climate, and Rapoport’s rule

We studied the altitudinal patterns of plant species richness and examined the effects of geometric constraints, area, and climatic factors on the observed richness patterns along the ridge of the Baekdudaegan Mountains, South Korea. Rapoport’s altitudinal rule was evaluated by examining the relationship between altitudinal range size and midpoint. We also examined the latitudinal effect on species richness. Plant data were collected from 1,100 plots along a 200–1,900 m altitudinal gradient along the ridge of the Baekdudaegan. A total of 802 plant species from 97 families and 342 genera were found. The altitudinal patterns of plant species richness along the ridge of the Baekdudaegan depicted distinctly hump-shaped patterns, although the absolute altitudes of the richness peaks vary somewhat among plant groups. While the mid-domain effect (MDE) was the most powerful explanatory variable in simple regression models, species richness was also associated with climatic factors, especially mean annual precipitation (MAP) and temperature (MAT) in multiple regression models. The relative importance of the MDE and climatic factors were different among plant groups. The MDE was more important for woody plants and for large-ranged species, whereas climatic factors were better predictors for total and herbaceous plants and for small-ranged species. Rapoport’s altitudinal rule and a latitudinal effect on species richness were not supported. Our study suggests that a combined interaction of the MDE and climatic factors influences species richness patterns along the altitudinal gradient of the Baekdudaegan Mountains, South Korea.     

Asymmetric changes of growth and reproductive investment herald altitudinal and latitudinal range shifts of two woody species

Ongoing changes in global climate are altering ecological conditions for many species. The consequences of such changes are typically most evident at the edge of the geographical distribution of a species, where range expansions or contractions may occur. Current demographical status at geographical range limits can help us to predict population trends and their implications for the future distribution of the species. Thus, understanding the comparability of demographical patterns occurring along both altitudinal and latitudinal gradients would be highly informative. In this study, we analyse the differences in the demography of two woody species through altitudinal gradients at their southernmost distribution limit and the consistency of demographical patterns at the treeline across a latitudinal gradient covering the complete distribution range. We focus on Pinus sylvestris and Juniperus communis, assessing their demographical structure (density, age and mortality rate), growth, reproduction investment and damage from herbivory on 53 populations covering the upper, central and lower altitudes as well as the treeline at central latitude and northernmost and southernmost latitudinal distribution limits. For both species, populations at the lowermost altitude presented older age structure, higher mortality, decreased growth and lower reproduction when compared to the upper limit, indicating higher fitness at the treeline. This trend at the treeline was generally maintained through the latitudinal gradient, but with a decreased growth at the northern edge for both species and lower reproduction for P. sylvestris. However, altitudinal and latitudinal transects are not directly comparable as factors other than climate, including herbivore pressure or human management, must be taken into account if we are to understand how to infer latitudinal processes from altitudinal data.     

The role of bioclimatic origin,residence time and habitat context in shaping non-native plant distributions along an altitudinal gradient

An important factor influencing whether or not a non-native plant species becomes invasive is the climate in the area of introduction. To become naturalised in the new range, a species must either be climatically pre-adapted (climate matching), have a high phenotypic plasticity, or be able to adapt genetically, which in the latter case may take many generations. Furthermore, patterns of successful establishment across species might vary with habitat context. To address the interaction of these factors on non-native species richness, we recorded the presence of non-native annual plant species along an altitudinal gradient on Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain). We compared the distributions of species differing in bioclimatic origin (Mediterranean and temperate) and time since introduction (old and recent introductions), and compared richness patterns of these groups in anthropogenic and natural habitats. Non-native species richness increased strongly from lowlands to mid-altitudes, but dropped sharply at the transition from anthropogenic to natural habitats, and thereafter declined with altitude in the natural habitat. This pattern indicates that the altitude effects reflected changes in both climate and habitat context. Mediterranean and temperate species were distributed similarly along the altitudinal gradient, and we found no effect of bioclimatic origin on species distributions. As almost all species present at the highest sites also occurred in the lowlands, we conclude that most species were introduced to lowland sites and were therefore pre-adapted to those climatic conditions (lowland introduction filter). The altitudinal ranges of species tended to increase with time since introduction, and the species reaching the highest altitudes were mostly old introductions. This effect of time was more pronounced among Mediterranean than temperate species. Thus, while climatic pre-adaptation is important for establishment along this altitudinal gradient, species tend to extend their altitudinal range with time.     

Body size and host range co-determine the altitudinal distribution of Neotropical tephritid flies

Aim We addressed the following questions: (1) Does tephritid body size tend to increase in species found at higher elevations, as predicted by Bergmann's rule? (2) Do tephritids conform to Rapoport's rule, so that species found at higher elevations tend to have broader altitudinal ranges? (3) More generally, how do body size and host range jointly affect the patterns of altitudinal distribution among Neotropical tephritid flies? Location The Mantiqueira mountain range, south‐eastern Brazil, at sites ranging from c. 700 to 2500 m a.s.l. Methods At each site we collected flower heads of all Asteraceae species to rear out endophagous immatures (from January to June in 1998 and 1999). We used structural equation models (SEM) to evaluate jointly the relationships between body size, host range and altitudinal distribution (range and mid‐point). Results Neotropical tephritid body size showed a negative relationship with altitudinal distribution. SE modelling showed no significant direct effect of body size on altitudinal range; however, it had significant indirect negative effects through host range and altitudinal mid‐point. The SE model was a good predictor of observed correlations and accounted for 84% of the variation in tephritid altitudinal range. Main conclusions The altitudinal range of flower‐head‐feeding tephritids is related to host range and is indirectly affected by body size via host range and altitudinal mid‐point. As predicted by Rapoport's rule, tephritids that occur at higher elevations also present wider altitudinal ranges. Bergmann's rule does not apply to Neotropical tephritids along a tropical elevational gradient, but rather its converse was found. Body size may determine host range by imposing a restriction upon large individuals using small flower heads. Host species turnover along the altitudinal gradient may be the main factor explaining the strong relationship between host range and insect elevational distribution.     

An investigation of habitat occupancy by the nightingale Luscinia megarhynchos with respect to population change at the edge of its range in England

The nightingale Luscinia megarhynchos has undergone population decline and range contraction at the north-western limit of its distribution in England during the last 25 years. We examine patterns of habitat occupancy and habitat availability across sites with a range of population histories to see whether habitat loss is a plausible explanation for these declines. The number of singing males in 1999 correlated with area of primary nightingale habitat in the East Midlands (where the species has declined), but not in East Anglia (where the population has been stable). Change in population size between 1980 and 1999 and current habitat availability were weakly correlated in the East Midlands but not in East Anglia. These results are consistent with habitat loss having contributed to the decline of the nightingale in the East Midlands, but suggest that other, wider-scale, factors may be at least partially responsible for determining the abundance of the species within England as a whole.     

The influences of snow cover,vegetation and topography on the upper range limit of common wombats Vombatus ursinus in the subalpine zone,Australia

Aim In subalpine and alpine environments, range shifts of species to higher altitudes are predicted to occur in response to reductions in the snow cover from climate change. However, the distribution of key resources may constrain the range of animal populations and prevent any upward migration. This study examined the local resource constraints on the upper range limit of a large, native herbivore in Australia, the common wombat Vombatus ursinus. Location The subalpine zone of the Snowy Mountains, Australia. Methods Logistic regression analyses of snow and habitat predictors were conducted on the presence/absence of wombat signs recorded along an altitudinal gradient during winter and summer, using parametric and nonparametric methods. Results Wombats responded strongly to the altitudinal gradient, but snow cover alone did not fully explain their upper range limit. Wombat occurrence in the subalpine zone was influenced by local habitat features in combination with maximum snow depth. More rugged, high‐relief terrain was important to wombats in winter, allowing individuals access to a wider range of altitudes, snow depths and shelter sites. During summer, high soil bulk density was an important predictor of occurrence, and in both seasons, occurrence declined in response to a higher cover of burnt grass. Main conclusions These models demonstrate that local habitat factors play a role even where there are strong regulating environmental factors. For wombats, this may limit future range expansion into the alpine zone despite the potential for an increase in abundance at their present range limit. These findings show the need for local ecological studies to be conducted in parallel with broad scale climate modelling if we are to understand shifts in species distributions as the climate rapidly changes.     

Detection of Climate-Sensitive Zones and Identification of Climate Change Indicators: A Case Study from the Bavarian Forest National Park

We determined the climate-sensitive zones along an altitudinal gradient in a low mountain range forest, the Bavarian Forest National Park in south-eastern Germany, and studied which vascular plant species are likely to respond to climate change. Plants were recorded on 273 plots along four straight transects. The composition of the plant species and their environmental correlates were detected using unconstrained correspondence analysis (DCA) with post-hoc correlation of axes against site variables. We tested the effect of site variables on species composition using maximally selected rank statistics, which allow the simultaneous identification of a threshold and assessment of its significance. Species turnover within the vascular plant community along the altitudinal gradient was assessed using the same method on the basis of the DCA sample scores. Using geostatistical models of local temperature and Bayesian methods with binomial errors that account for spatial structure, we tested the influence of temperature on selected single vascular plant species and assessed the suitability of the species as climate change indicators. Temperature was the most important factor explaining the variability in vascular plant community composition, which changed discretely along the altitudinal gradient, with a climate-sensitive zone found between 1,100 and 1,200 m a.s.l. The distribution of ten species with their lower or upper altitudinal limit in this zone was significantly driven by temperature. To track vegetation responses to climate change effectively, we suggest a three-level monitoring program, flexible with regard to the volume of required sampling effort.     

Altitudinal zonation of evergreen broad-leaved forest on Mount Lopei,Taiwan

Abstract. Evergreen broad-leaved forest was studied in a transect on the northwestern slope of Mount Lopei in order to reveal altitudinal zonation in structure and floristic composition and the decisive environmental factors. 20 plots of 20 m × 20 m at altitudes from 540 m to 1320 m were analysed. 144 woody species were found. The results of a DCA ordination clearly pointed to a single dominant altitudinal gradient. Nevertheless, wind-exposure associated topography was found to account for additional variation for a given altitudinal range. Along the altitudinal gradient, four dominance-based forest types were recognized. Tree density, species diversity and evenness of the four types differed significantly but total basal area and tree volume were not significantly different. The 95 % turnover range for woody species as measured by the Community Coefficient was calculated as 1030 m, and the 50 % turnover range as 238 m. For the understorey, the change in species composition with altitude was less obvious. Species population structures of 57 sufficiently abundant species revealed four characteristic patterns, but most species showed a good fit to the negatively exponential or power function distribution and thus appeared to have good reproduction and regular recruitment. Both ANOVA and Redundancy Analysis (RDA) showed that significant differences among forest types were found for most soil variables. Organic C, exchangeable Na and K tended to increase with altitude, while pH and available N showed a reverse trend. There was little evidence that the differences in soil pH and available N were responsible for the variation in forest growth.     

Thermal affinity as the dominant factor changing Mediterranean fish abundances

Recent decades have seen profound changes in species abundance and community composition. In the marine environment, the major anthropogenic drivers of change comprise exploitation, invasion by nonindigenous species, and climate change. However, the magnitude of these stressors has been widely debated and we lack empirical estimates of their relative importance. In this study, we focused on Eastern Mediterranean, a region exposed to an invasion of species of Red Sea origin, extreme climate change, and high fishing pressure. We estimated changes in fish abundance using two fish trawl surveys spanning a 20‐year period, and correlated these changes with estimated sensitivity of species to the different stressors. We estimated sensitivity to invasion using the trait similarity between indigenous and nonindigenous species; sensitivity to fishing using a published composite index based on the species’ life‐history; and sensitivity to climate change using species climatic affinity based on occurrence data. Using both a meta‐analytical method and random forest analysis, we found that for shallow‐water species the most important driver of population size changes is sensitivity to climate change. Species with an affinity to warm climates increased in relative abundance and species with an affinity to cold climates decreased suggesting a strong response to warming local sea temperatures over recent decades. This decrease in the abundance of cold‐water‐associated species at the trailing “warm” end of their distribution has been rarely documented. Despite the immense biomass of nonindigenous species and the presumed high fishing pressure, these two latter factors seem to have only a minor role in explaining abundance changes. The decline in abundance of indigenous species of cold‐water origin indicates a future major restructuring of fish communities in the Mediterranean in response to the ongoing warming, with unknown impacts on ecosystem function.