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1.
Background: Stage and age at diagnosis are important prognostic factors for patients with colorectal cancer. However, the proportion cured by stage and age is unknown in England. Materials and methods: This population-based study includes 29,563 adult patients who were diagnosed and registered with colorectal cancer during 1997–2004 and followed till 2007 in North West England. Multiple imputation was used to provide more reliable estimates of stage at diagnosis, when these data were missing. Cure mixture models were used to estimate the proportion ‘cured’ and the median survival of the uncured by age and stage. Results: For both colon and rectal cancer the proportion of patients cured and median survival time of the uncured decreased with advancing stage and increasing age. Patients aged under 65 years had the highest proportion cured and longest median survival of the uncured. Conclusion: Cure of colorectal cancer patients is dependent on stage and age at diagnosis with younger patients or those with less advanced disease having a better prognosis. Further efforts are required, in order to reduce the proportion of patients presenting with stage III and IV disease and ultimately increase the chance of cure.  相似文献   

2.
AimThe aim of this study was to estimate the population-level ‘cure’ of Maltese colorectal cancer patients diagnosed between 1995 and 2004, and to estimate the median survival time for the ‘uncured’ patients.Methods and study populationAnalysis was conducted on 1470 cases registered by the Malta National Cancer Register between 1995 and 2004 and followed up to end of 2010. The mean age of the patients was 66.4 (95%CI 65.8–67.1), and the number of men and women were equal. Background mortality for 1995–2010 was extracted from publicly available life tables. A mixture model with Weibull survival distribution and identity link was used to model ‘cure’.ResultsThe overall ‘cured’ proportion for the patients diagnosed in 1995–1999 was 45.3% (95%CI 40.2–50.5) while the ‘cured’ proportion for the patients diagnosed in 2000–2004 was 52.3% (95%CI 47.2–57.5). Median survival time for the ‘uncured’ patients increased in the second calendar period from 1.25 years (95%CI 1.04–1.45) to 1.42 years (95%CI 1.15–1.76).ConclusionIn Malta, as in the rest of Europe, improvements have been made in short- and long-term survival over the 15-year period under study. To continue this improvement, differences by age that still persist must be investigated and efforts focused to reduce any gaps between Malta and other European countries.  相似文献   

3.
PurposeConditional net survival in recurrence-free patients (CNS-RF) provides relevant clinical information and has never been assessed yet in a non-selected colon cancer population. We aimed to estimate conditional 5-year net survival in recurrence-free patients with colon cancer in the population-based Digestive Cancer Registry of Burgundy (France).MethodsCNS-RF was estimated in the 3736 patients resected for cure for primary colon cancer between 1976 and 2006, using a flexible parametric model of net survival for every additional year survived at diagnosis and from 1 to 5 years thereafter.ResultsThe net probability of surviving 5 more years increased from 72% at diagnosis to 92% for recurrence-free patients who survived 5 years after diagnosis. CNS-RF was over 90% 3 years after diagnosis in patients aged 75 and below. CNS-RF was over 95% in patients diagnosed after 2000 who were recurrence-free 3, 4 or 5 years after diagnosis. CNS-RF was similar between patients with stage I and II disease from 2 years after diagnosis and patients with stage III disease from 5 years after diagnosis. The initial differences in net survival related to gross features, clinical presentation, number of harvested nodes in stage II, and number of involved nodes in stage III disappeared after 2 years.ConclusionsCNS-RF is a relevant measure of prognosis in patients who have already achieved a period of remission. Providing an updated estimation of prognosis in the years following diagnosis may improve the survivors’ quality of life and access to credit or insurance.  相似文献   

4.
目的 探索终末期肾病的保险精算方法,为终末期肾病以及其他重大疾病的保险研究方法提供参考和借鉴。为完善我国终末期肾病的医疗保障提供理论依据。方法 拟和糖尿病病人终末期肾病发病概率模型、生存概率模型,采用寿险精算的思想 , 考虑长期保险过程中利率因素的影响,建立终末期糖尿病肾病的保险方案。结果 糖尿病患者终末期肾病的发病率随年龄增加而上升。保费与投保时年龄有关。对于终身长期疾病保险,利率的变化对保费的影响较大。结论 将寿险精算的方法应用到糖尿病终末期肾病保险中具有可行性,随着糖尿病的发病率迅速上升,终末期肾病造成的经济负担需要健全和完善的社会医疗保障体系。  相似文献   

5.
Objectives: To evaluate progress in stomach cancer care in Japan since 1975. Design: Population-based study of data extracted from the Osaka Cancer Registry. Setting: Population-based cancer registry in the area of Osaka Prefecture. Participants: All 66,032 cases diagnosed with a stomach cancer in Osaka Prefecture, Japan between 1975 and 2000 and registered in the Osaka Cancer Registry. Main outcome measures: ‘Cure’ fraction and median survival time for ‘uncured’ patients were estimated with multivariable mixture ‘cure’ model. The role played by age and stage at diagnosis on the changes in ‘cure’ parameters between 1975 and 2000 was evaluated. Missing stage was handled by multiple imputation approach. Results: More than 50% of the patients diagnosed with a stomach cancer in 1996–2000 were estimated ‘cured’ from their cancer, corresponding to a 20% increase since 1975–1980. Median survival time for ‘uncured’ patients however remained unchanged at about 8 months. ‘Cure’ fraction was over 85% for localised tumours and 30% for regional tumours, but stayed as low as 2.5% for distant metastatic cancers. Improvement was underestimated by about 10% because of ageing of cancer patients. Changes in stage distribution explained up to 40% of the increase in ‘cure’ fraction among men and up to 13% in women. Overdiagnosis was unlikely to play any role in these patterns. Conclusions: ‘Cure’ fraction from stomach cancer dramatically increased in Osaka, Japan since 1975, partly because of earlier stage at diagnosis, but mostly due to improvement in treatment of stomach cancer patients. This study, based on a leading country in term of stomach cancer management, provides insightful results for other countries in which ‘cure’ fraction is usually much lower.  相似文献   

6.
BackgroundThe New South Wales Central Cancer Registry (NSW CCR) is the only population-based cancer registry in Australia that has routinely collected summary stage at diagnosis since its inception in 1972. However, a large proportion of prostate cancer cases have “unknown” stage recorded by the registry. We investigated the characteristics of prostate cancer cases with “unknown” stage recorded by the NSW CCR, and examined survival for this group.MethodsData were obtained from the NSW CCR for all first primary prostate cancer cases diagnosed in 1999–2007. Summary stage was recorded as localised, regional, distant or “unknown”. Associations between disease stage and patient characteristics (age, place of residence at diagnosis, year of diagnosis and country of birth) and prostate cancer specific survival were investigated using multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models respectively.ResultsOf 39 852 prostate cancer cases, 41.8% had “unknown” stage recorded by the NSW CCR. This proportion decreased significantly over time, increased with increasing age at diagnosis and was higher for those living in socio-economically disadvantaged areas. The proportion with “unknown” stage varied across area health services. Prostate cancer specific survival for cases with “unknown” stage was significantly poorer than for those with localised stage but better than for those with regional or distant stage.ConclusionsResearchers or others using cancer registry stage data to examine prostate cancer outcomes need to consider the differences between cases with “unknown” stage at diagnosis and those with known stage recorded by the registry, and what impact this may have on their results.  相似文献   

7.
BackgroundWhile net probabilities of death in the relative survival framework ignore competing causes of death, crude probabilities allow estimation of the real risk of cancer deaths. This study quantifies temporal trends in net and crude probabilities of death.MethodsAustralian population-based cohort of 2,015,903 people aged 15-89 years, diagnosed with a single primary invasive cancer from 1984 to 2013 with mortality follow-up to 31 December 2014. Survival was analyzed with the cohort method. Flexible parametric relative survival models were used to estimate both probability measures by diagnosis year for all cancers and selected leading sites.ResultsFor each site, excess mortality rates reduced over time, especially for prostate cancer. While both the 10-year net and crude probability of cancer deaths decreased over time, specific patterns varied. For example, the crude probability of lung cancer deaths for males aged 50 years decreased from 0.90 (1984) to 0.79 (2013); whereas the corresponding probabilities for kidney cancer were 0.64 and 0.18 respectively. Patterns for crude probabilities of competing deaths were relatively constant. Although for younger patients, both net and crude measures were similar, crude probability of competing deaths increased with age, hence for older ages net and crude measures were different except for lung and pancreas cancers.ConclusionsThe observed reductions in probabilities of death over three decades for Australian cancer patients are encouraging. However, this study also highlights the ongoing mortality burden following a cancer diagnosis, and the need for continuing efforts to improve cancer prevention, diagnosis and treatment.  相似文献   

8.
目的:研究肺结核患者治愈后复发危险因素以及耐药状况。方法:回顾性分析我院于2015年5月~2017年12月期间收治的1000例肺结核患者的临床资料。对所有患者均进行为期2年的随访观察,统计复发情况。将所有患者按照治愈后复发与否分成复发组58例以及无复发组942例,比较两组患者基线资料情况,包括年龄、性别、耐药、吸烟、职业类型、居住情况以及空洞,并对影响肺结核患者治愈后复发的因素作多因素Logistic回归分析,对所有治愈后复发患者的耐药情况进行检验,分析其耐单药、耐2药、耐3药、耐4药人数的占比情况。结果:1000例肺结核患者治愈后复发58例,复发率为5.80%。肺结核患者治愈后是否复发与性别、年龄、吸烟无关(P0.05),复发组耐药、体力型工作、流动人口、空洞患者的比例高于未复发组(P0.05)。经多因素Logistic回归分析可得:耐药、体力型工作、流动人口、空洞均是肺结核患者治愈后复发的独立危险因素。58例患者中发生耐药例数27例,耐药率为46.55%;其中耐单药、耐2药、耐3药、耐4药人数分别为8、10、7、2例,相应占比为13.79%、17.24%、12.07%、3.45%。结论:肺结核患者治愈后复发的风险较高,尤其应注意耐药、体力型工作、流动人口、空洞的患者,以降低疾病复发,且肺结核复发患者的耐药情况不容乐观。  相似文献   

9.
ObjectiveThe survival benefits of having a partner for all cancers combined is well recognized, however its prognostic importance for individual cancer types, including competing mortality causes, is less clear. This study was undertaken to quantify the impact of partner status on survival due to cancer-specific and competing mortality causes.MethodsData were obtained from the population-based Queensland Cancer Registry on 176,050 incident cases of ten leading cancers diagnosed in Queensland (Australia) from 1996 to 2012. Flexible parametric competing-risks models were used to estimate cause-specific hazards and cumulative probabilities of death, adjusting for age, stage (breast, colorectal and melanoma only) and stratifying by sex.ResultsBoth unpartnered males and females had higher total cumulative probability of death than their partnered counterparts for each site. For example, the survival disadvantage for unpartnered males ranged from 3% to 30% with higher mortality burden from both the primary cancer and competing mortality causes. The cause-specific age-adjusted hazard ratios were also consistent with patients without a partner having increased mortality risk although the specific effect varied by site, sex and cause of death. For all combined sites, unpartnered males had a 46%, 18% and 44% higher risk of cancer-specific, other cancer and non-cancer mortality respectively with similar patterns for females. The higher mortality risk persisted after adjustment for stage.ConclusionsIt is important to better understand the mechanisms by which having a partner is beneficial following a cancer diagnosis, so that this can inform improvements in cancer management for all people with cancer.  相似文献   

10.
BackgroundThere is limited evidence on the costs of Endometrial Cancer (EC) by stage of disease. We estimated the long-term secondary care costs of EC according to stage at diagnosis in an English population-based cohort.MethodsWomen participating in UKCTOCS and diagnosed with EC following enrolment (2001–2005) and prior to 31st Dec 2009 were identified to have EC through multiple sources. Survival was calculated through data linkage to death registry. Costs estimates were derived from hospital records accessed from Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) with additional patient level covariates derived from case notes and patient questionnaires. Missing and censored data was imputed using Multiple Imputation. Regression analysis of cost and survival was undertaken.Results491 of 641 women with EC were included. Five year total costs were strongly dependent on stage, ranging from £9,475 (diagnosis at stage IA/IB) to £26,080 (diagnosis at stage III). Stage, grade and BMI were the strongest predictors of costs. The majority of costs for stage I/II EC were incurred in the first six months after diagnosis while for stage III / IV considerable costs accrued after the first six months.ConclusionsIn addition to survival advantages, there are significant cost savings if patients with EC are detected earlier.  相似文献   

11.
BackgroundThe aim of the study was to compare the TNM classification with 2-[18F]FDG PE T biological parameters of primary tumor in patients with NSCLC.Materials and methodsRetrospective analysis was performed on a group of 79 newly diagnosed NSCLC patients. PET scans were acquired on Gemini TF PET/CT scanner 60–70 min after injection of 2-[18F]FDG with the mean activity of 364 ± 75 MBq, with the area being examined from the vertex to mid-thigh. The reconstructed PET images were evaluated using MIM 7.0 Software for SUVmax, MTV and TLG values.ResultsThe analysis of the cancer stage according to TNM 8th edition showed stage IA2 in 8 patients, stage IA3 — 6 patients, stage IB — 4 patients, IIA — 3 patients, 15 patients with stage IIB, stage IIIA — 17 patients, IIIB — 5, IIIC — 5, IVA in 7 patients and stage IVB in 9 patients. The lowest TLG values of primary tumor were observed in stage IA2 (11.31 ± 15.27) and the highest in stage IIIC (1003.20 ± 953.59). The lowest value of primary tumor in SUVmax and MTV were found in stage IA2 (6.8 ± 3.8 and 1.37 ± 0.42, respectively), while the highest SUVmax of primary tumor was found in stage IIA (13.4 ± 11.4) and MTV in stage IIIC (108.15 ± 127.24).ConclusionTNM stages are characterized by different primary tumor 2-[18F]FDG PET parameters, which might complement patient outcome.  相似文献   

12.
BackgroundIn cancer care, the cure proportion (P) and time-to-cure (TTC) are important indicators for practitioners, patients, and healthcare policy makers. The recent definition of TTC as the time at which the probability of belonging to the cured group reaches 95% was used for the first time.MethodsThe data stem from the common database of French cancer registries including 335,358 solid tumours diagnosed between 1995 and 2009 at 27 sites. P and TTC were estimated through a flexible parametric net survival cure model for each cancer site, sex, and age at diagnosis with acceptable assumption of cure (excess mortality rate ≤0.05).ResultsTTC was ≤5 years and P was >80% for skin melanoma and thyroid and testis cancers. It was 0 for testis cancer in men <55 and for thyroid cancer in men <45 and women <65. TTC was between 5 and 10 years for all digestive cancers except small intestine and all gynaecologic cancers except breast. It was ≥10 years in prostate, breast, and urinary tract. The range of P according to age and sex was 37–79% for urinary tract 72–88% for prostate and breast, 4–16% for pancreatic and 47–62% for colorectal cancer.ConclusionTime-to-cure was estimated for the first time from a large national database and individual probabilities of cure. It was 0 in the younger patients with testis or thyroid cancer and <12 years in most cancer sites. These results should help improve access to credit and insurance for patients still alive past the estimated TTCs.  相似文献   

13.
《Endocrine practice》2010,16(6):968-976
ObjectiveTo evaluate the efficacy of cabergoline therapy in patients with Cushing disease who remained uncured (had persistent or recurrent disease) after a pituitary surgical procedure with or without radiotherapy.MethodsWe undertook a prospective, open-label, single-arm study, with short-term (5 months) and longterm (1 year) evaluations. In 20 patients with uncured Cushing disease, treatment was initiated with cabergoline at a dosage of 1 mg/wk, with a monthly increment of 1 mg, until midnight serum cortisol (MNSC) or low-dose dexamethasone suppression serum cortisol (LDSC) (or both) normalized or a maximal dosage of 5 mg/wk was reached.ResultsOverall, 5 of 18 patients (28%) responded in terms of LDSC or MNSC (or both) at a mean dosage of 3.6 mg/wk (range, 2 to 5). When the response was defined with use of either LDSC or MNSC level as an isolated criterion, it was achieved in 4 of 16 patients (25%) and 3 of 18 patients (17%), respectively. Four patients were treated for 1 year, and the response was persistent in 2 and 3 patients on the basis of MNSC and LDSC levels, respectively. Lower baseline serum cortisol (basal, MNSC, and LDSC) values were predictive of a therapeutic response.ConclusionCabergoline was an effective therapy in 28%, 25%, and 17% of patients with uncured Cushing disease in terms of LDSC or MNSC (or both), LDSC alone, and MNSC alone, respectively. Further studies are needed to address the persistence of the drug response and the effects on the dynamics of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis. (Endocr Pract. 2010;16:968-976)  相似文献   

14.
BackgroundIndividuals with celiac disease (CD) are at increased risk of sepsis. The aim of this study was to examine whether CD influences survival in sepsis of bacterial origin.MethodsNationwide longitudinal registry-based study. Through data on small intestinal biopsies from Sweden’s 28 pathology departments, we identified 29,096 individuals with CD (villous atrophy, Marsh stage III). Each individual with CD was matched with five population-based controls. Among these, 5,470 had a record of sepsis according to the Swedish Patient Register (1,432 celiac individuals and 4,038 controls). Finally we retrieved data on mortality in sepsis patients through the Swedish Cause of Death Registry.ResultsCD was associated with a 19% increase in overall mortality after sepsis (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.09–1.29), with the highest relative risk occurring in children (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.62; 95%CI = 0.67–3.91). However, aHR for death from sepsis was lower (aHR = 1.10) and failed to reach statistical significance (95%CI = 0.72–1.69). CD did not influence survival within 28 days after sepsis (aHR = 0.98; 95%CI = 0.80–1.19).ConclusionsAlthough individuals with CD seem to be at an increased risk of overall death after sepsis, that excess risk does not differ from the general excess mortality previously seen in celiac patients in Sweden. CD as such does not seem to influence short-term or sepsis-specific survival in individuals with sepsis and therefore is not an independent risk factor for poor prognosis in sepsis.  相似文献   

15.
BackgroundCure models can provide improved possibilities for inference if used appropriately, but there is potential for misleading results if care is not taken. In this study, we compared five commonly used approaches for modelling cure in a relative survival framework and provide some practical advice on the use of these approaches.Patients and methodsData for colon, female breast, and ovarian cancers were used to illustrate these approaches. The proportion cured was estimated for each of these three cancers within each of three age groups. We then graphically assessed the assumption of cure and the model fit, by comparing the predicted relative survival from the cure models to empirical life table estimates.ResultsWhere both cure and distributional assumptions are appropriate (e.g., for colon or ovarian cancer patients aged <75 years), all five approaches led to similar estimates of the proportion cured. The estimates varied slightly when cure was a reasonable assumption but the distributional assumption was not (e.g., for colon cancer patients ≥75 years). Greater variability in the estimates was observed when the cure assumption was not supported by the data (breast cancer).ConclusionsIf the data suggest cure is not a reasonable assumption then we advise against fitting cure models. In the scenarios where cure was reasonable, we found that flexible parametric cure models performed at least as well, or better, than the other modelling approaches. We recommend that, regardless of the model used, the underlying assumptions for cure and model fit should always be graphically assessed.  相似文献   

16.
17.
ObjectivesWhile a mammography-screening program (MSP) is being offered systematically in Germany since 2009, the dispanserizatsiya has been implemented in Russia since 2013. This study examined trends of stage at breast cancer diagnosis in two Russian regions and compared the results with the development in Germany. In addition, we aimed to gain further insights into the early detection of breast cancer in Russia.MethodsIncidence data from two cancer registries in Russia and 12 population-based cancer registries in Germany were used to analyse breast cancer incidence rates among women above age 30 over time. Further, we calculated rate ratios to compare the age group-specific incidence rates after the implementation of MSP in Germany (2010–2014) with the period before implementation (2003–2005) separately for each tumour stage and all stages combined.ResultsDuring the study period from 2003 to 2014, age-standardised rates for breast cancer were 54.6 and 116.7 per 100,000 for Russia and Germany, respectively. The proportion of the T1 stage at diagnosis among Russian women aged 50 + is half than that in Germany. Nevertheless, we observed an increasing trend of early-stage alongside the reduction of advanced-stage incidence rates of breast cancer in Russia.ConclusionsThe observed trend in Russia may reflect overall positive changes in early detection of breast cancer, with actual proportion of T1 stage still far behind Germany. Advances in breast cancer screening efforts through the dispanserizatsiya may help to further reduce the breast cancer burden.  相似文献   

18.
MOTIVATION: In recent years, microarray technology has revealed many tumor-expressed genes prognostic of clinical outcomes in early-stage breast cancer patients. However, in the presence of cured patients, evaluating gene effect on time to relapse is quite complex since it may affect either the probability of never experiencing a relapse (cure effect) or the time to relapse among the uncured patients (disease progression effect) or both. In this context, we propose a simple and an efficient method for identifying gene expression changes that characterize early and late recurrence for uncured patients. RESULTS: Simulation results show the good performance of the proposed statistic for detecting a disease progression effect. In a study of early-stage breast cancer, our results show that the proposed statistic provides a more powerful basis for gene selection than the classical Cox model-based statistic. From a biological perspective, many of the genes identified here as associated with the speed of disease recurrence have known roles in tumorigenesis.  相似文献   

19.
BackgroundNet survival is the survival that would be observed if cancer were the only possible cause of death. Although it is an important epidemiological tool allowing temporal or geographical comparisons, it cannot inform on the “crude” probability of death of cancer patients; i.e., when taking into account other possible causes of deaths.MethodsIn this work, we provide estimates of the crude probabilities of death from cancer and from other causes as well as the probability of being alive up to ten years after cancer diagnosis according to the age and year of diagnosis. Based on a flexible excess hazard model providing unbiased estimates of net survival, our methodology avoids the pitfalls associated with the use of the cause of death. We used data from FRANCIM, the French network of cancer registries, and studied five common cancer sites: head and neck, breast, prostate, lung, and colorectal cancers.ResultsFor breast, prostate, and colorectal cancers, the impact of the other causes on the total probability of death increased with the age at diagnosis whereas it remained negligible for lung and head and neck cancers whatever the age. For breast, prostate, and colorectal cancer, the more recently was the cancer diagnosed, the less was the probability of death from cancer.ConclusionThe crude probability of death is an intuitive concept that may prove particularly useful in choosing an appropriate treatment, or refining the indication of a screening strategy by allowing the clinician to estimate the proportion of cancer patients who will die specifically from cancer.  相似文献   

20.
BackgroundMartinique has one of the highest incidences of prostate cancer (PCa) worldwide. We analysed overall survival (OS) among patients with PCa in Martinique, using data from a population-based cancer registry between 2005 and 2014.MethodsThe log-rank test was used to assess the statistical differences between survival curves according to age at diagnosis, risk of disease progression including Gleason score, stage at diagnosis and Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA). A multivariable Cox model was constructed to identify independent prognostic factors for OS.ResultsA total of 5045 patients were included with a mean age at diagnosis of 68.1±9.0 years [36.0 – 98.0 years]. Clinical stage was analysed in 4999 (99.1% of overall), 19.5% were at low risk, 34.7% intermediate and 36.9% at high risk. In our study, 8.9% of patients with available stage at diagnosis, were regional/metastatic cancers. Median PSA level at diagnosis was 10.4 ng/mL. High-risk PCa was more frequent in patients aged 65-74 and ≥75 years as compared to those aged <65 years (36.6% and 48.8% versus 28.7% respectively; p<0.0001). One-year OS was 96.3%, 5-year OS was 83.4 and 10-year OS was 65.0%. Median survival was not reached in the whole cohort. High-risk PCa (HR=2.32; p<0.0001), regional/metastatic stage (HR= 9.51; p<0.0001) and older age (65-74 and ≥75 years - respectively HR=1.70; and HR=3.38), were independent prognostic factors for OS (p<0.0001).ConclusionThis study provides long term data that may be useful in making cancer management decisions for patients with PCa in Martinique.  相似文献   

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