The Dynamics of a Fish Stock Exploited in Two Fishing Zones

This work presents a specific stock-effort dynamical model. The stocks correspond to two populations of fish moving and growing between two fishery zones. They are harvested by two different fleets. The effort represents the number of fishing boats of the two fleets that operate in the two fishing zones. The bioeconomical model is a set of four ODE's governing the fishing efforts and the stocks in the two fishing areas. Furthermore, the migration of the fish between the two patches is assumed to be faster than the growth of the harvested stock. The displacement of the fleets is also faster than the variation in the number of fishing boats resulting from the investment of the fishing income. So, there are two time scales: a fast one corresponding to the migration between the two patches, and a slow time scale corresponding to growth. We use aggregation methods that allow us to reduce the dimension of the model and to obtain an aggregated model for the total fishing effort and fish stock of the two fishing zones. The mathematical analysis of the model is shown. Under some conditions, we obtain a stable equilibrium, which is a desired situation, as it leads to a sustainable harvesting equilibrium, keeping the stock at exploitable densities.     

Effect of Small Versus Large Clusters of Fish School on the Yield of a Purse-Seine Small Pelagic Fishery Including a Marine Protected Area

We consider a fishery model with two sites: (1) a marine protected area (MPA) where fishing is prohibited and (2) an area where the fish population is harvested. We assume that fish can migrate from MPA to fishing area at a very fast time scale and fish spatial organisation can change from small to large clusters of school at a fast time scale. The growth of the fish population and the catch are assumed to occur at a slow time scale. The complete model is a system of five ordinary differential equations with three time scales. We take advantage of the time scales using aggregation of variables methods to derive a reduced model governing the total fish density and fishing effort at the slow time scale. We analyze this aggregated model and show that under some conditions, there exists an equilibrium corresponding to a sustainable fishery. Our results suggest that in small pelagic fisheries the yield is maximum for a fish population distributed among both small and large clusters of school.     

Female dominant age-dependent deterministic population dynamics

Summary In this paper the study of a nonlinear deterministic model of an age/sex differentiated population is started with a proof of existence and uniqueness of solution of the governing equation. We also obtain time dependent upper bounds to the male and female populations as well as necessary and sufficient conditions for equilibrium.     

General population growth models with Allee effects in a random environment

Allee effects on population growth are quite common in nature, usually studied through deterministic models with a specific growth rate function.In order to seek the qualitative behaviour of populations induced by such effects, one should avoid model-specific behaviours. So, we use as a basis a general deterministic model, i.e. a model with a general growth rate function, to which we add the effect on the growth rate of the random fluctuations in environmental conditions. The resulting model is the general stochastic differential equation (SDE) model that we propose here.We consider two possible cases, weak Allee effects and strong Allee effects, which lead to different qualitative behaviours of the model.We will study the model properties for both cases in terms of existence and uniqueness of the solution, extinction and stationary behaviour of the population. The two cases will be compared with each other and with the general density-dependent SDE model without Allee effects.We then consider as an example the particular case of the classic logistic model and an Allee effect version of it.     

A host-parasite model yielding heterogeneous parasite loads

Many models of parasitic infections lead to an approximately Poisson distribution of parasites among hosts, in stark contrast to the highly over-dispersed distributions that are usually encountered in practice. In this paper, a model is analyzed which, while assuming all individuals to be alike, can still lead to a very heterogeneous distribution of parasites among the host population. The model can be viewed as a very simple mean field interacting particle system, with the particles corresponding to the individual hosts, which behaves like an associated deterministic system when the number of hosts is large. The deterministic system describes the evolution over time of the proportions of the population with different parasite loads, and its equilibria are interpreted as typical distributions of parasites among hosts. Despite its simplicity, the model is complicated enough mathematically to leave a number of open problems.This work was supported in part by Schweiz. Nationalfonds Grants Nos 21-25579.88 and 20-31262.91, and by NSF Grant DMS 90-05833     

A tale of two cycles – distinguishing quasi-cycles and limit cycles in finite predator–prey populations

Periodic predator – prey dynamics in constant environments are usually taken as indicative of deterministic limit cycles. It is known, however, that demographic stochasticity in finite populations can also give rise to regular population cycles, even when the corresponding deterministic models predict a stable equilibrium. Specifically, such quasi-cycles are expected in stochastic versions of deterministic models exhibiting equilibrium dynamics with weakly damped oscillations. The existence of quasi-cycles substantially expands the scope for natural patterns of periodic population oscillations caused by ecological interactions, thereby complicating the conclusive interpretation of such patterns. Here we show how to distinguish between quasi-cycles and noisy limit cycles based on observing changing population sizes in predator – prey populations. We start by confirming that both types of cycle can occur in the individual-based version of a widely used class of deterministic predator – prey model. We then show that it is feasible and straightforward to accurately distinguish between the two types of cycle through the combined analysis of autocorrelations and marginal distributions of population sizes. Finally, by confronting these results with real ecological time series, we demonstrate that by using our methods even short and imperfect time series allow quasi-cycles and limit cycles to be distinguished reliably.     

The re-incarnation, re-interpretation and re-demise of the transition probability model.

There are two classes of models for the cell cycle that have both a deterministic and a stochastic part; they are the transition probability (TP) models and sloppy size control (SSC) models. The hallmark of the basic TP model are two graphs: the alpha and beta plots. The former is the semi-logarithmic plot of the percentage of cell divisions yet to occur, this results in a horizontal line segment at 100% corresponding to the deterministic phase and a straight line sloping tail corresponding to the stochastic part. The beta plot concerns the differences of the age-at-division of sisters (the beta curve) and gives a straight line parallel to the tail of the alpha curve. For the SC models the deterministic part is the time needed for the cell to accumulate a critical amount of some substance(s). The variable part differs in the various variants of the general model, but they do not give alpha and beta curves with linear tails as postulated by the TP model. This paper argues against TP and for an elaboration of SSC type of model. The main argument against TP is that it assumes that the probability of the transition from the stochastic phase is time invariant even though it is certain that the cells are growing and metabolizing throughout the cell cycle; a fact that should make the transition probability be variable. The SSC models presume that cell division is triggered by the cell's success in growing and not simply the result of elapsed time. The extended model proposed here to accommodate the predictions of the SSC to the straight tailed parts of the alpha and beta plots depends on the existence of a few percent of the cell in a growing culture that are not growing normally, these are growing much slower or are temporarily quiescent. The bulk of the cells, however, grow nearly exponentially. Evidence for a slow growing component comes from experimental analyses of population size distributions for a variety of cell types by the Collins-Richmond technique. These subpopulations existence is consistent with the new concept that there are a large class of rapidly reversible mutations occurring in many organisms and at many loci serving a large range of purposes to enable the cell to survive environmental challenges. These mutations yield special subpopulations of cells within a population. The reversible mutational changes, relevant to the elaboration of SSC models, produce slow-growing cells that are either very large or very small in size; these later revert to normal growth and division. The subpopulations, however, distort the population distribution in such a way as to fit better the exponential tails of the alpha and beta curves of the TP model.     

Periodic solutions in a model of competition between plasmid-bearing and plasmid-free organisms in a chemostat with an inhibitor

We obtain necessary and sufficient conditions on the existence of a unique positive equilibrium point and a set of sufficient conditions on the existence of periodic solutions for a 3-dimensional system which arises from a model of competition between plasmid-bearing and plasmid-free organisms in a chemostat with an inhibitor. Our results improve the corresponding results obtained by Hsu, Luo, and Waltman [1]. Received: 20 November 1997 / Revised version: 12 February 1999 / Published online: 20 December 2000     

Critical thresholds for eventual extinction in randomly disturbed population growth models

This paper considers several single species growth models featuring a carrying capacity, which are subject to random disturbances that lead to instantaneous population reduction at the disturbance times. This is motivated in part by growing concerns about the impacts of climate change. Our main goal is to understand whether or not the species can persist in the long run. We consider the discrete-time stochastic process obtained by sampling the system immediately after the disturbances, and find various thresholds for several modes of convergence of this discrete process, including thresholds for the absence or existence of a positively supported invariant distribution. These thresholds are given explicitly in terms of the intensity and frequency of the disturbances on the one hand, and the population’s growth characteristics on the other. We also perform a similar threshold analysis for the original continuous-time stochastic process, and obtain a formula that allows us to express the invariant distribution for this continuous-time process in terms of the invariant distribution of the discrete-time process, and vice versa. Examples illustrate that these distributions can differ, and this sends a cautionary message to practitioners who wish to parameterize these and related models using field data. Our analysis relies heavily on a particular feature shared by all the deterministic growth models considered here, namely that their solutions exhibit an exponentially weighted averaging property between a function of the initial condition, and the same function applied to the carrying capacity. This property is due to the fact that these systems can be transformed into affine systems.

     

延迟遗传调控网络稳定性及分支

本文主要研究了延迟遗传调控网络的局部稳定性和该网络的Hopf分支存在条件．延迟遗传调控网络是无穷维系统,此类系统在平衡点线性化后的特征方程为超越方程。通过对此超越方程进行研究,得到了系统系数不同时的系统稳定的条件及相关结论,又进一步说明了此系统的Hopf分支存在条件．最后,举一个例子进行了数值仿真验证了所得到的结论．     

Basic reproduction ratio for a fishery model in a patchy environment

We present a dynamical model of a multi-site fishery. The fish stock is located on a discrete set of fish habitats where it is catched by the fishing fleet. We assume that fishes remain on fishing habitats while the fishing vessels can move at a fast time scale to visit the different fishing sites. We use the existence of two time scales to reduce the dimension of the model : we build an aggregated model considering the habitat fish densities and the total fishing effort. We explore a regulation procedure, which imposes an average residence time in patches. Several equilibria exist, a Fishery Free Equilibria (FFEs) as well as a Sustainable Fishery Equilibria (SFEs). We show that the dynamics depends on a threshold which is similar to a basic reproduction ratio for the fishery. When the basic reproduction ratio is less or equal to 1, one of the FFEs is globally asymptotically stable (GAS), otherwise one of the SFEs is GAS.     

Effects of resources and mortality on the growth and reproduction of Nile perch in Lake Victoria

1. A collapse of Nile perch stocks of Lake Victoria could affect up to 30 million people. Furthermore, changes in Nile perch population size‐structure and stocks make the threat of collapse imminent. However, whether eutrophication or fishing will be the bane of Nile perch is still debated. 2. Here, we attempt to unravel how changes in food resources, a side effect of eutrophication, and fishing mortality determine fish population growth and size structures. We parameterised a physiologically structured model to Nile perch, analysed the influence of ontogenetic diet shifts and relative resource abundances on existence boundaries of Nile perch and described the populations on either side of these boundaries. 3. Our results showed that ignoring ontogenetic diet shifts can lead to over‐estimating the maximum sustainable mortality of a fish population. Size distributions can be indicators of processes driving population dynamics. However, the vulnerability of stocks to fishing mortality is dependent on its environment and is not always reflected in size distributions. 4. We suggest that the ecosystem, instead of populations, should be used to monitor long‐term effects of human impact.     

Noise-induced neural impulses

The firing pattern of neural pulses often show the following features: the shapes of individual pulses are nearly identical and frequency independent; the firing frequency can vary over a broad range; the time period between pulses shows a stochastic scatter. This behaviour cannot be understood on the basis of a deterministic non-linear dynamic process, e.g. the Bonhoeffer-van der Pol model. We demonstrate in this paper that a noise term added to the Bonhoeffer-van der Pol model can reproduce the firing patterns of neurons very well. For this purpose we have considered the Fokker-Planck equation corresponding to the stochastic Bonhoeffer-van der Pol model. This equation has been solved by a new Monte Carlo algorithm. We demonstrate that the ensuing distribution functions represent only the global characteristics of the underlying force field: lines of zero slope which attract nearby trajectories prove to be the regions of phase space where the distributions concentrate their amplitude. Since there are two such lines the distributions are bimodal representing repeated fluctuations between two lines of zero slope. Even in cases where the deterministic Bonhoeffer-van der Pol model does not show limit cycle behaviour the stochastic system produces a limit cycle. This cycle can be identified with the firing of neural pulses.     

Stochastic models of some endemic infections

Stochastic models are established and studied for several endemic infections with demography. Approximations of quasi-stationary distributions and of times to extinction are derived for stochastic versions of SI, SIS, SIR, and SIRS models. The approximations are valid for sufficiently large population sizes. Conditions for validity of the approximations are given for each of the models. These are also conditions for validity of the corresponding deterministic model. It is noted that some deterministic models are unacceptable approximations of the stochastic models for a large range of realistic parameter values.     

Unequal cell division, growth regulation and colony size of mammalian cells: a mathematical model and analysis of experimental data.

This work describes mathematically the dynamics of expansion of cell populations from the initial division of single cells to colonies of several hundred cells. This stage of population growth is strongly influenced by stochastic (random) elements including, among others, cell death and quiescence. This results in a wide distribution of colony sizes. Experimental observations of the NIH3T3 cell line as well as for the NIH3T3 cell line transformed with the ras oncogene were obtained for this study. They include the number of cells in 4-day-old colonies initiated from single cells and measurements of sizes of sister cells after division, recorded in the 4-day-old colonies. The sister cell sizes were recorded in a way which enabled investigation of their interdependence. We developed a mathematical model which includes cell growth and unequal cell division, with three possible outcomes of each cell division: continued cell growth and division, quiescence, and cell death. The model is successful in reproducing experimental observations. It provides good fits to colony size distributions for both NIH3T3 mouse fibroblast cells and the same cells transformed with the rasEJ human cancer gene. The difference in colony size distributions could be fitted by assuming similar cell lifetimes (12-13 hr) and similar probabilities of cell death (q = 0.15), but using different probabilities of quiescence, r = 0 for the ras oncogene transformed cells and r = 0.1 for the non-transformed cells. The model also reproduces the evolution of distributions of sizes of cells in colonies, from a single founder cell of any specified size to the stable limit distribution after eight to ten cell divisions. Application of the model explains in what way both random events and deterministic control mechanisms strongly influence cell proliferation at early stages in the expansion of colonies.     

Stock estimation, environmental monitoring and equilibrium control of a fish population with reserve area

For sustainable exploitation of renewable resources, the separation of a reserve area is a natural idea. In particular, in fishery management of such systems, dynamic modelling, monitoring and control has gained major attention in recent years. In this paper, based on the known dynamic model of a fish population with reserve area, the methodology of mathematical systems theory and optimal control is applied. In most cases, the control variable is fishing effort in the unreserved area. Working with illustrative data, first a deterministic stock estimation is proposed using an observer design method. A similar approach is also applied to the estimation of the effect of an unknown environmental change. Then it is shown how the system can be steered to equilibrium in given time, using fishing effort as an open-loop control. Furthermore, a corresponding optimal control problem is also solved, maximizing the harvested biomass while controlling the system into equilibrium. Finally, a closed-loop control model is applied to asymptotically control the system into a desired equilibrium, intervening this time in the reserve area.     

A priori contact preferences in molecular recognition

A molecular interaction library modeling favorable non-bonded interactions between atoms and molecular fragments is considered. In this paper, we represent the structure of the interaction library by a network diagram, which demonstrates that the underlying prediction model obtained for a molecular fragment is multi-layered. We clustered the molecular fragments into four groups by analyzing the pairwise distances between the molecular fragments. The distances are represented as an unrooted tree, in which the molecular fragments fall into four groups according to their function. For each fragment group, we modeled a group-specific a priori distribution with a Dirichlet distribution. The group-specific Dirichlet distributions enable us to derive a large population of similar molecular fragments that vary only in their contact preferences. Bayes' theorem then leads to a population distribution of the posterior probability vectors referred to as a "Dickey-Savage"-density. Two known methods for approximating multivariate integrals are applied to obtain marginal distributions of the Dickey-Savage density. The results of the numerical integration methods are compared with the simulated marginal distributions. By studying interactions between the protein structure of cyclohydrolase and its ligand guanosine-5'-triphosphate, we show that the marginal distributions of the posterior probabilities are more informative than the corresponding point estimates.     

Modelling cell population growth with applications to cancer therapy in human tumour cell lines

In this paper we present an overview of the work undertaken to model a population of cells and the effects of cancer therapy. We began with a theoretical one compartment size structured cell population model and investigated its asymptotic steady size distributions (SSDs) (On a cell growth model for plankton, MMB JIMA 21 (2004) 49). However these size distributions are not similar to the DNA (size) distributions obtained experimentally via the flow cytometric analysis of human tumour cell lines (data obtained from the Auckland Cancer Society Research Centre, New Zealand). In our one compartment model, size was a generic term, but in order to obtain realistic steady size distributions we chose size to be DNA content and devised a multi-compartment mathematical model for the cell division cycle where each compartment corresponds to a distinct phase of the cell cycle (J. Math. Biol. 47 (2003) 295). We then incorporated another compartment describing the possible induction of apoptosis (cell death) from mitosis phase (Modelling cell death in human tumour cell lines exposed to anticancer drug paclitaxel, J. Math. Biol. 2004, in press). This enabled us to compare our model to flow cytometric data of a melanoma cell line where the anticancer drug, paclitaxel, had been added. The model gives a dynamic picture of the effects of paclitaxel on the cell cycle. We hope to use the model to describe the effects of other cancer therapies on a number of different cell lines.     

Probabilistic Gompertz model of irreversible growth

Characterizing organism growth within populations requires the application of well-studied individual size-at-age models, such as the deterministic Gompertz model, to populations of individuals whose characteristics, corresponding to model parameters, may be highly variable. A natural approach is to assign probability distributions to one or more model parameters. In some contexts, size-at-age data may be absent due to difficulties in ageing individuals, but size-increment data may instead be available (e.g., from tag-recapture experiments). A preliminary transformation to a size-increment model is then required. Gompertz models developed along the above lines have recently been applied to strongly heterogeneous abalone tag-recapture data. Although useful in modelling the early growth stages, these models yield size-increment distributions that allow negative growth, which is inappropriate in the case of mollusc shells and other accumulated biological structures (e.g., vertebrae) where growth is irreversible. Here we develop probabilistic Gompertz models where this difficulty is resolved by conditioning parameter distributions on size, allowing application to irreversible growth data. In the case of abalone growth, introduction of a growth-limiting biological length scale is then shown to yield realistic length-increment distributions.     

Model for radial dependence of frequency distributions for energy imparted in nanometer volumes from HZE particles

This paper develops a deterministic model of frequency distributions for energy imparted (total energy deposition) in small volumes similar to DNA molecules from high-energy ions of interest for space radiation protection and cancer therapy. Frequency distributions for energy imparted are useful for considering radiation quality and for modeling biological damage produced by ionizing radiation. For high-energy ions, secondary electron (delta-ray) tracks originating from a primary ion track make dominant contributions to energy deposition events in small volumes. Our method uses the distribution of electrons produced about an ion's path and incorporates results from Monte Carlo simulation of electron tracks to predict frequency distributions for ions, including their dependence on radial distance. The contribution from primary ion events is treated using an impact parameter formalism of spatially restricted linear energy transfer (LET) and energy-transfer straggling. We validate our model by comparing it directly to results from Monte Carlo simulations for proton and alpha-particle tracks. We show for the first time frequency distributions of energy imparted in DNA structures by several high-energy ions such as cosmic-ray iron ions. Our comparison with results from Monte Carlo simulations at low energies indicates the accuracy of the method.