Modeling the Effects of Fire on the Long-Term Dynamics and Restoration of Yellow Pine and Oak Forests in the Southern Appalachian Mountains

We used LANDIS, a model of forest disturbance and succession, to simulate successional dynamics of forests in the southern Appalachian Mountains. The simulated environments are based on the Great Smoky Mountains landscapes studied by Whittaker. We focused on the consequences of two contrasting disturbance regimes—fire exclusion versus frequent burning—for the Yellow pine (Pinus L., subgenus Diploxylon Koehne) and oak (Quercus L.) forests that occupy dry mountain slopes and ridgetops. These ecosystems are a conservation priority, and declines in their abundance have stimulated considerable interest in the use of fire for ecosystem restoration. Under fire exclusion, the abundance of Yellow pines is projected to decrease, even on the driest sites (ridgetops, south‐ and west‐facing slopes). Hardwoods and White pine (P. strobus L.) replace the Yellow pines. In contrast, frequent burning promotes high levels of Table Mountain pine (P. pungens Lamb.) and Pitch pine (P. rigida Mill.) on the driest sites and reduces the abundance of less fire‐tolerant species. Our simulations also imply that fire maintains open woodland conditions, rather than closed‐canopy forest. For oaks, fire exclusion is beneficial on the driest sites because it permits oaks to replace the pines. On moister sites (north‐ and east‐facing slopes), however, fire exclusion leads to a diverse mix of oaks and other species, whereas frequent burning favors Chestnut oak (Q. montana Willd.) and White oak (Q. alba L.) dominance. Our results suggest that reintroducing fire may help restore decadent pine and oak stands in the southern Appalachian Mountains.     

Simulating the Effects of Fire Reintroduction Versus Continued Fire Absence on Forest Composition and Landscape Structure in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area, Northern Minnesota, USA

The Boundary Waters Canoe Area (BWCA) Wilderness of northern Minnesota, USA, ememplifies how fire management and natural disturbance determine forest composition and landscape structure at a broad scale. Historically, the BWCA (>400,000 ha) was subject to crown fires with a mean rotation period of 50–100 y. Fires often overlapped, creating a mosaic of differently aged stands with many stands burning frequently or, alternatively, escaping fire for several centuries. The BWCA may never have reached a steady-state (defined as a stable landscape age-class structure). In the early 1900s, a diminished fire regime began creating a more demographically diverse forest, characterized by increasingly uneven-aged stands. Shade-tolerant species typical of the region began replacing the shade-intolerant species that composed the fire-generated even-aged stands. Red pine (Pinus resinosa) stands are relatively uncommon in the BWCA today and are of special concern. The replacement of early-to-midsuccessional species is occurring at the scale of individual gaps, producing mixed-species multiaged forests. We used LANDIS, a spatially explicit forest landscape model, to investigate the long-term consequences of fire reintroduction or continuing fire absence on forest composition and landscape structure. Fire reintroduction was evaluated at three potential mean fire rotation periods (FRP): 50,100, and 300 y. Our model scenarios predict that if fire reintroduction mimics the natural fire regime (bracketed by FRP = 50 and 100 y), it will be most successful at preserving the original species composition and landscape structure, although jack pine (Pinus banksiana) may require special management. With limited fire reintroduction, all of the extant species are retained although species dominance and landscape structure will be substantially altered. If fire remains absent, many fire-dependent species will be lost as local dominants, including red pine. The landscape appears to be in a state of rapid change and a shift in management to promote fire may need to be implemented soon to prevent further deviation from historic, presettlement conditions.     

Carbon Sequestration in the New Jersey Pine Barrens Under Different Scenarios of Fire Management

The New Jersey Pine Barrens (NJPB) is the largest forested area along the northeastern coast of the United States. The NJPB are dominated by pine (Pinus spp.) and oak (Quercus spp.) stands that are fragmented and subject to frequent disturbance and forest management. Over long time periods (>50 years), the balance between oak and pine dominance is determined by fire frequency. As a consequence, the ability of the NJPB to sequester carbon may be contingent upon management activities as well as patterns of historic land use. We simulated 100 years of carbon change using three scenarios: (1) contemporary management as reflected in the recent (1991–2006) fire records, (2) an increase in the fire ignitions within the wildland urban interface areas of the NJPB reflecting increased prescribed fires, and (3) a longer response time to wildfires, reflecting a more liberal burning policy by the New Jersey Forest Fire Service. We used the LANDIS-II model coupled with CENTURY and the Dynamic Fire and Dynamic Biomass Fuels extensions to estimate forest carbon sequestration based on these three scenarios. Calibration and validation via comparison to monthly flux tower data indicated that the model reasonably captured the timing and magnitude of net ecosystem exchange in the absence of Gypsy moth defoliation (r ² = 0.89). Under all scenarios, our simulations suggest that forests of the NJPB will continue to accumulate carbon over the next 100 years under current climatic conditions. Although aboveground net primary productivity, live carbon, and detrital carbon were roughly constant or increased only modestly, soil organic carbon continued to increase through time for all forest types except the highly xeric pine plains. Our simulated changes in management reflected only minor alterations to the fire regime and thus management may have only minor effects on total forest carbon budgets in the immediate future particularly when compared to recovery from historic disturbance patterns.     

Seasonality of Fire Weather Strongly Influences Fire Regimes in South Florida Savanna-Grassland Landscapes

Fire seasonality, an important characteristic of fire regimes, commonly is delineated using seasons based on single weather variables (rainfall or temperature). We used nonparametric cluster analyses of a 17-year (1993–2009) data set of weather variables that influence likelihoods and spread of fires (relative humidity, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, soil moisture) to explore seasonality of fire in pine savanna-grassland landscapes at the Avon Park Air Force Range in southern Florida. A four-variable, three-season model explained more variation within fire weather variables than models with more seasons. The three-season model also delineated intra-annual timing of fire more accurately than a conventional rainfall-based two-season model. Two seasons coincided roughly with dry and wet seasons based on rainfall. The third season, which we labeled the fire season, occurred between dry and wet seasons and was characterized by fire-promoting conditions present annually: drought, intense solar radiation, low humidity, and warm air temperatures. Fine fuels consisting of variable combinations of pyrogenic pine needles, abundant C4 grasses, and flammable shrubs, coupled with low soil moisture, and lightning ignitions early in the fire season facilitate natural landscape-scale wildfires that burn uplands and across wetlands. We related our three season model to fires with different ignition sources (lightning, military missions, and prescribed fires) over a 13-year period with fire records (1997–2009). Largest wildfires originate from lightning and military ignitions that occur within the early fire season substantially prior to the peak of lightning strikes in the wet season. Prescribed ignitions, in contrast, largely occur outside the fire season. Our delineation of a pronounced fire season provides insight into the extent to which different human-derived fire regimes mimic lightning fire regimes. Delineation of a fire season associated with timing of natural lightning ignitions should be useful as a basis for ecological fire management of humid savanna-grassland landscapes worldwide.     

Human Impacts on the Fire Regime of Interior Alaska: Interactions among Fuels, Ignition Sources, and Fire Suppression

Wildfire is the major natural agent of disturbance in interior Alaska. We examined the magnitude of human impact on fire by comparing fire regime between individual 1-km² grid cells designated for fire suppression with lands where fires are allowed to burn naturally. Two-thirds of interior Alaska has an essentially natural fire regime, with few human ignitions, negligible suppression activity, and many large lightning-caused fires. In the 17% of land that is designated for fire suppression due to its proximity to communities and roads, there was a 50% reduction in the proportion of area burned from 1992–2001, relative to areas without suppression. The remaining 16% of land serves as a buffer, receives some suppression, and has an intermediate fire regime. Even though there were 50 times more fires and the fire season began two months earlier in lands designated for suppression, most of these fires were lit by people and remained small because fires tended to occur at times and places less favorable for fire spread and were more accessible to fire fighters compared to lands not designated for suppression. Even in the absence of fire suppression, human-caused fires were less likely to exceed 400 ha compared to lightning-caused fires. Fire suppression reduced area burned in all fuel types but was somewhat more effective in less flammable (non-forest) vegetation. Alaska’s fire policy of focusing suppression efforts on a small proportion of the fire-prone region maximizes the ecological and social benefits associated with fire-dependent ecosystem services, while minimizing the social and ecological costs of suppression. Application of this policy to other areas would require well-informed managers and stakeholders to make difficult decisions about the relative costs and benefits of fire across ecologically and culturally variable landscapes.     

Explaining fire‐driven landscape transformation during the Initial Burning Period of New Zealand's prehistory

At the time of Māori settlement, ca. 750 years ago, New Zealand's ecosystems experienced catastrophic change, including the introduction of fire to ignition‐limited ecosystems and the resulting widespread loss of forest. While high‐resolution sediment‐charcoal analyses suggest this forest loss was rapid, Māori populations were small and transient during the Initial Burning Period and there is evidence for widespread fire activity in places where there is little archaeological evidence of human presence. These observations beg the question ‘how did small populations manage to transform large areas so rapidly?’ Using a simulation model, we demonstrate how the relationship between time since fire and flammability in New Zealand's forests drives positive feedbacks that allow for rapid and extensive deforestation. Under ignition scenarios mirroring prehuman conditions, the model did not produce significant deforestation – thus, it is extremely unlikely that deforestation could have occurred without human‐initiated burning. Scenarios where ignition was spatio‐temporally random also failed to result in deforestation. Rapid and widespread forest loss occurred in scenarios incorporating spatio‐temporally savvy selection of ignition locations. Targeting ignitions in flammable vegetation was more important than targeting ignitions in years with favourable climatic conditions. However, targeting in space and time concurrently, such that flammable vegetation was ignited during favourable climatic years was the most efficient strategy of those simulated. Following the Initial Burning Period decadal ignitions would have been sufficient to maintain a deforested shrubland/grassland landscape. New Zealand's Initial Burning Period is one of many that occurred across eastern Polynesia following human settlement, and these events have left long‐term legacy effects that remain evident in contemporary landscapes. Improving understanding of how humans shaped environments in New Zealand in the past has implications for eastern Polynesia as a whole.     

Contributions of Ignitions,Fuels, and Weather to the Spatial Patterns of Burn Probability of a Boreal Landscape

The spatial pattern of fire observed across boreal landscapes is the outcome of complex interactions among components of the fire environment. We investigated how the naturally occurring patterns of ignitions, fuels, and weather generate spatial pattern of burn probability (BP) in a large and highly fire-prone boreal landscape of western Canada, Wood Buffalo National Park. This was achieved by producing a high-resolution map of BP using a fire simulation model that models the ignition and spread of individual fires for the current state of the study landscape (that is, the ‘control’). Then, to extract the effect of the variability in ignitions, fuels, and weather on spatial BP patterns, we subtracted the control BP map to those produced by “homogenizing” a single environmental factor of interest (that is, the ‘experimental treatments’). This yielded maps of spatial residuals that represent the spatial BP patterns for which the heterogeneity of each factor of interest is responsible. Residuals were analyzed within a structural equation modeling framework. The results showed unequal contributions of fuels (67.4%), weather (29.2%), and ignitions (3.4%) to spatial BP patterning. The large contribution of fuels reflects how substantial heterogeneity of land cover on this landscape strongly affects BP. Although weather has a chiefly temporal control on fire regimes, the variability in fire-conducive weather conditions exerted a surprisingly large influence on spatial BP patterns. The almost negligible effect of spatial ignition patterns was surprising but explainable in the context of this area’s fire regime. Similar contributions of fuels, weather, and ignitions could be expected in other parts of the boreal forest that lack a strong anthropogenic imprint, but are likely to be altered in human-dominated fire regimes.     

大兴安岭呼中林区虫害与火干扰交互作用的长期模拟

虫害和林火是森林生态系统的两种主要干扰类型,各种干扰在大时空尺度上存在一定的交互作用.本文采用空间直观景观模型LANDIS模拟虫害和林火在300年内的交互作用.结果表明:虫害干扰降低了细可燃物载量,提高了模拟前期(0～100 a)和中期(100～200 a)的粗可燃物载量,降低了模拟前期和中期的林火频率,不同干扰预案模拟后期(200～300 a)火烧频率的结果比较接近;虫害干扰降低了模拟前期和后期的火烧强度,增加了模拟中期的火烧强度,提高了模拟中期的森林火险等级,降低了模拟前期和后期的火险等级.人类灭火可增加虫害的发生面积,因此建议森林管理部门采取适当的防虫措施,不可只注重灭火,可以采取可燃物去除和计划火烧等方式管理林火,促进森林生态系统的可持续发展.     

Mesophication in temperate Europe: A dendrochronological reconstruction of tree succession and fires in a mixed deciduous stand in Białowieża Forest

1. The shift from shade‐intolerant species to shade‐tolerant mesophytic species in deciduous and mixed forests of the temperate zone is well described in studies from North America. This process has been termed mesophication and it has been linked to changes in fire regime. Fire suppression results in the cessation of establishment of heliophytic, fire‐dependent tree species such as oak (Quercus) and pine (Pinus). Due to the scarcity of old‐growth forests in Europe, data on long‐term compositional changes in mixed forests are very limited, as is the number of studies exploring whether fire played a role in shaping the dynamics.
2. The aim of this study was to reconstruct tree succession in a 43‐ha natural mixed deciduous forest stand in Bia?owie?a Forest (BF), Poland using dendrochronological methods. In addition, the presence of aboveground fire legacies (charred and fire‐scarred deadwood) enabled the fire history reconstruction.
3. Dendrochronological data revealed tree establishment (Quercus) back to the end of the 1500s and fires back to 1659. Under a regime of frequent fires until the end of the 18th century, only oak and pine regenerated, sporadically. A shift in the fire regime in the first half of the 19th century triggered oak and pine cohort regeneration, then gradually spruce (Picea) encroached. Under an increasingly dense canopy and less flammable conditions, regeneration of shade‐tolerant Carpinus, Tilia, and Acer began simultaneously with the cessation of oak and pine recruitment.
4. Synthesis. The study reports the first evidence of mesophication in temperate Europe and proves that fire was involved in shaping the long‐term dynamics of mixed deciduous forest ecosystems. Our data suggest that fire exclusion promoted a gradual recruitment of fire‐sensitive, shade‐tolerant species that inhibited the regeneration of oak and pine in BF.

     

Why Pine Barrens Restoration Should Favor Barrens Over Pine

Pine barrens include an assortment of pyrogenic plant communities occurring on glacial outwash or rocky outcrops scattered along the Atlantic coastal plain from New Jersey to Maine, and inward across New England, New York, Pennsylvania, and the northern Great Lakes region. At least historically, pine barrens provided some of the highest quality terrestrial shrublands and young forests in the eastern North American sub‐boreal and northern temperate region. However, the mosaic open‐canopy, sparse‐shrub, and grassland early successional state is generally lacking in contemporary pine barrens. Many sites in the northeastern United States have converted to overgrown scrub oak (Quercus ilicifolia, Quercus prinoides) thickets and closed canopied pitch pine (Pinus rigida)‐dominated forests. Thinning pitch pine is a contentious issue for the imperiled pitch pine‐scrub oak barrens community type (G2 Global Rarity Rank, 6–20 occurrences). Here we provide a historical, ecological, and resource management rationale for thinning pitch pine forest to restore savanna‐like open barrens with a mosaic of scrub oaks, heath shrubs, and prairie‐like vegetation. We postulate that the contemporary dominance of pitch pine forest is largely of recent anthropogenic origin, limits habitat opportunities for at‐risk shrubland fauna, and poses a serious wildfire hazard. We suggest maintaining pitch pine‐scrub oak barrens at 10–30% average pitch pine cover to simultaneously promote shrubland biodiversity and minimize fire danger.     

Postfire Vegetation Recovery in Highland Pine Forests of the Dominican Republic

We surveyed postfire vegetation at five sites at high elevations (> 2000 m) in the Cordillera Central, Dominican Republic. Highlands of the Cordillera Central are dominated by a single pine species, Pinus occidentalis, but plant communities are rich with endemics and conservation and fire management efforts in these systems are ongoing. The burns were 2–7 yr in age and had consumed nearly all shrub crowns. Pines suffered high mortality (> 50%, all sites combined), but shrubs resprouted at high rates (88%, N = 957) after fire. All shrub taxa produced basal resprouts; eight of 11 shrub taxa measured had resprouting rates > 90 percent, while Baccharis myrsinites had the lowest (56%). Most taxa grew to prefire height quickly (within 5–7 yr), with regrowth of stem diameters lagging behind. Patterns and rates of shrub recovery resembled those documented in high elevation shrublands in Costa Rica and Brazil. Pinus occidentalis does not resprout, but larger individuals can survive fire. Survival increases dramatically when trees attain > 13-cm dbh, when bark becomes thick enough to protect cambial tissue. Overall, pines are regenerating much more slowly than shrubs, but seedling establishment varied considerably between sites. Frequent fires may cause a decline in pines and an increase in shrub- or grass-dominated communities. Succession in these high elevation fire-dependent pine forests favors taxa already present in the preburn vegetation, with woody composition changing little after fire, in contrast to lower-elevation cloud forest, where postfire vegetation has been shown to bear little resemblance to mature forest even after several years.     

Three centuries of fire in montane pine‐oak stands on a temperate forest landscape

Question: What was the role of fire in montane pine‐oak (Pinus‐Quercus) stands under changing human land uses on a temperate forest landscape in eastern North America? Location: Mill Mountain in the central Appalachian Mountains, Virginia, US. Methods: A dendroecological reconstruction of fire history was generated for four stands dominated by xerophytic pine and oak species. The fire chronology began under presettlement conditions following aboriginal depopulation. Subsequent land uses included European settlement, iron mining, logging, and US Forest Service acquisition and fire protection. Results: Fires occurred approximately every 5 years until 1930 without any evidence of a temporal trend in fire frequency. Burning ceased after 1930. Area‐wide fires affecting multiple pine stands were common, occurring at intervals of approximately 16 years. Most living pines became established during the late 1800s and early 1900s. Dead pines indicated that an older cohort established ca. 1730. Most hardwoods were established between the 1920s and 1940s. Conclusions: Except for fire protection, changes in land use had no discernible influence on fire frequency. Lightning ignitions and/or large fire extent may have been important for maintaining frequent burning in the 1700s, while fuel recovery may have constrained fire frequency during later periods. The disturbance regime appears to be characterized by frequent surface fires and occasional severe fires, insect outbreaks or other disturbances followed by pine recruitment episodes. Industrial disturbances appear to have had little influence on the pine stands. The greatest impact of industrial society is fire exclusion, which permitted hardwood establishment.     

林火干扰对大兴安岭主要林分类型地上生物量预测的影响模拟研究

林火干扰是北方森林最主要的自然干扰之一,对北方森林地上生物量影响是一个长期的过程。因此,在预测地上生物量动态变化时需要考虑林火的影响。运用空间直观景观模型LANDIS PRO,模拟大兴安岭林区林火对不同树种地上生物量预测的影响。选取研究区5种主要树种林分(兴安落叶松、樟子松、云杉、白桦和山杨),以无干扰情景为参考预案,在验证模型模拟结果的基础上,模拟林火在短期(0—50a)、中期(50—150a)和长期(150—300a)对地上生物量的定量化影响,及其对不同立地类型地上生物量的动态变化。结果表明:(1)基于森林调查数据参数化的2000年森林景观模拟结果能够较好地代表2000年真实森林景观,模拟的2010年森林林分密度和胸高断面积与2010年森林调查数据无显著性差异(P0.05),当前林火干扰机制模拟结果能够较好地与样地调查数据匹配,说明林火模拟能够代表当前研究区林火发生情况;(2)与无干扰预案相比,整个模拟时期内景观水平上林火减少了1.7—5.9 t/hm2地上生物量;(3)与无干扰预案相比,林火预案下主要树种生物量在短期、中期和长期变化显著(P0.05);(4)在不同模拟时期,林火显著地改变了地上生物量空间分布,其中以亚高山区地上生物量降低最为明显。研究可为长期森林管理以及森林可持续发展提供参考。     

呼中林区火烧点格局分析及影响因素

林火是森林生态系统景观格局、动态和生态过程的重要自然驱动力,理解林火发生空间格局与影响因素对于林火安全管理具有重要的作用。采用点格局分析方法,以黑龙江大兴安岭呼中林区1990-2005年火烧数据为研究案例,分析了火烧点空间格局及其影响因素。结果表明,火烧点在空间上的分布是不均匀的,呈现聚集分布,存在一些火烧高发区和低发区。呼中林区火烧概率是0.004-0.012次/(km² · a),平均火烧概率为0.0077次/(km² · a)。人类活动因子、地形因子和植被因子对林火的发生均具有重要作用。应用空间点格局分析方法表明,距离居民点和道路的距离、高程、坡度和林型是影响林火发生的显著因子。因此在进行森林防火管理时,仅仅通过控制人类活动对于降低林火火险的效果是有限的,地形和林型也是林火防控时重点要考虑的因素。     

A Spatially-Explicit Reconstruction of Historical Fire Occurrence in the Ponderosa Pine Zone of the Colorado Front Range

A key issue in ecosystem management in the western U.S. is the determination of the historic range of variability of fire and its ecological significance prior to major land-use changes associated with Euro-American settlement. The present study relates spatial variation in historical fire occurrence to variation in abiotic and biotic predictors of fire frequency and severity across the elevational range of ponderosa pine in northern Colorado. Logistic regression was used to relate fire frequency to environmental predictors and to derive a probability surface for mapping purposes. These results indicate that less than 20% of the ponderosa pine zone had an historic fire regime (pre-1915) of relatively frequent fires (mean fire intervals, MFI, <30 years). More than 80% is reconstructed to have had a lower frequency (MFI ≥ 30 years), more variable severity fire regime. High fire frequency is clearly associated with low elevations. Lower and more variable fire frequencies, associated with high and moderate severities, occur across a broad range of elevation and are related to variations in other environmental variables. Only a small part of the ponderosa pine zone fits the widespread view that the historic fire regime was characterized mainly by frequent, low-severity that maintained open conditions. Management attempts to restore historic forest structures and/or fire conditions must recognize that infrequent severe fires were an important component of the historic fire regime in this cover type in northern Colorado.     

Assessing the relative fire proneness of different forest types in Portugal

Abstract

We have assessed the fire proneness of the main forest types in Portugal classified according to the main species, using three different approaches: the use of resource selection ratios applied to burned patches, the proportion of randomly located plots that were burned and the proportion of burned National Forest Inventory plots. The results allowed ranking fire proneness according to the following decreasing order: maritime pine forests, eucalyptus forests, unspecified broadleaf forests, unspecified conifer forests, cork oak forests, chestnut forests, holm oak forests and stone pine forests. In order to understand the obtained results we have assessed the structure of the different forest types using the percent cover of seven vegetation layers (C1–C7), a Tree Dominance Index, a Height Index and a Cover Index (IC). Structural variables and stand composition were used to predict fire probability according to binary logistic modelling. Only four structural variables and stand composition provided significant results, the latter being the most important variable for explaining fire probability. These models were used to predict fire probability for different stand types as a function of IC.     

Spatial patterns and drivers of fire occurrence and its future trend under climate change in a boreal forest of Northeast China

Understanding the spatial patterns of fire occurrence and its response to climate change is vital to fire risk mitigation and vegetation management. Focusing on boreal forests in Northeast China, we used spatial point pattern analysis to model fire occurrence reported from 1965 to 2009. Our objectives were to quantitate the relative importance of biotic, abiotic, and human influences on patterns of fire occurrence and to map the spatial distribution of fire occurrence density (number of fires occurring over a given area and time period) under current and future climate conditions. Our results showed human‐caused fires were strongly related to human activities (e.g. landscape accessibility), including proximity to settlements and roads. In contrast, fuel moisture and vegetation type were the most important controlling factors on the spatial pattern of lightning fires. Both current and future projected spatial distributions of the overall (human‐ + lightning‐caused) fire occurrence density were strongly clustered along linear components of human infrastructure. Our results demonstrated that the predicted change in overall fire occurrence density is positively related to the degree of temperature and precipitation change, although the spatial pattern of change is expected to vary spatially according to proximity to human ignition sources, and in a manner inconsistent with predicted climate change. Compared to the current overall fire occurrence density (median value: 0.36 fires per 1000 km² per year), the overall fire occurrence density is projected to increase by 30% under the CGCM3 B1 scenario and by 230% under HadCM3 A2 scenario in 2081–2100, respectively. Our results suggest that climate change effects may not outweigh the effects of human influence on overall fire occurrence over the next century in this cultural landscape. Accurate forecasts of future fire‐climate relationships should account for anthropogenic influences on fire ignition density, such as roads and proximity to settlements.     

Altered Fire Regimes Affect Landscape Patterns of Plant Succession in the Foothills and Mountains of Southern California

In the southern California foothills and mountains, pronounced and complex topographic gradients support fire regimes that vary over short distances. We used LANDIS, a spatially explicit landscape model of disturbance and plant succession, to examine the resilience of dominant plant species, representing different disturbance response strategies, to the effect of varying fire rotation intervals (FRI). The simulated fire regimes represented natural, current and very long FRIs for the foothill shrublands less than 1,400 m (90, 30 and 150 years) and montane forest greater than 1400 m (30, 150, 500 years). The 30-year FRI allowed obligate resprouting shrubs to dominate over obligate seeders, whereas the 90-year FRI resulted in a stable spatial distribution of both of these shrub functional types. This is consistent with the literature that suggests that shifts in shrubland composition are most likely to result from human-caused increases in fire frequency at the low-elevation urban-wildland interface. An ecotone conifer, Pinus coulteri, showed dramatic shifts in distribution under different FRIs, and retreated to the portion of the landscape representing its temporal regeneration niche. Both low and high frequency fire maintained the fire tolerant dominant pine (P. jeffreyi) in the montane zone. This contradicts the literature that suggests that a high frequency ground fire regime is required for the persistence of a pine-dominated forest, but is consistent with studies showing that conifer forests in the western U.S. have experienced, and are resilient to, a broad range of natural FRIs that include low frequency, high intensity crown fires.     

Development of secondary pine forests after pine wilt disease in western Japan

Abstract. The development of secondary Pinus densiflora (Japanese red pine) forests after pine wilt disease was studied through phytosociological analysis, estimation of forest structure before disease and size-structure, tree ring and stem analyses. Following the end of the disease, the growth of previously suppressed small oak trees was accelerated. This is quite different from the development of forests following fire, which starts with the establishment of pine seedlings. Pine wilt disease shifted the dominance of secondary forests from Pinus densiflora to Quercus serrata oak forest. In pine forests, disturbance by fire is important for forest maintenance. In contrast, disturbance by pine wilt disease leads to an acceleration of succession from pine forest to oak forest.     

Wildfire risk for main vegetation units in a biodiversity hotspot: modeling approach in New Caledonia,South Pacific

Wildfire has been recognized as one of the most ubiquitous disturbance agents to impact on natural environments. In this study, our main objective was to propose a modeling approach to investigate the potential impact of wildfire on biodiversity. The method is illustrated with an application example in New Caledonia where conservation and sustainable biodiversity management represent an important challenge. Firstly, a biodiversity loss index, including the diversity and the vulnerability indexes, was calculated for every vegetation unit in New Caledonia and mapped according to its distribution over the New Caledonian mainland. Then, based on spatially explicit fire behavior simulations (using the FLAMMAP software) and fire ignition probabilities, two original fire risk assessment approaches were proposed: a one‐off event model and a multi‐event burn probability model. The spatial distribution of fire risk across New Caledonia was similar for both indices with very small localized spots having high risk. The patterns relating to highest risk are all located around the remaining sclerophyll forest fragments and are representing 0.012% of the mainland surface. A small part of maquis and areas adjacent to dense humid forest on ultramafic substrates should also be monitored. Vegetation interfaces between secondary and primary units displayed high risk and should represent priority zones for fire effects mitigation. Low fire ignition probability in anthropogenic‐free areas decreases drastically the risk. A one‐off event associated risk allowed localizing of the most likely ignition areas with potential for extensive damage. Emergency actions could aim limiting specific fire spread known to have high impact or consist of on targeting high risk areas to limit one‐off fire ignitions. Spatially explicit information on burning probability is necessary for setting strategic fire and fuel management planning. Both risk indices provide clues to preserve New Caledonia hot spot of biodiversity facing wildfires.