Late Holocene vegetation, fire, climate and upper forest line dynamics in the Podocarpus National Park, southeastern Ecuador

Late Holocene vegetation, fire, climate and upper forest line dynamics were studied based on detailed pollen and charcoal analyses. Two sediment cores, from the Rabadilla de Vaca mire (RVM) and the Valle Peque?o bog (VP), with an age of about 2100 and 1630 cal yrs b.p., respectively, were taken at the modern upper forest line in the Parque Nacional Podocarpus (Podocarpus National Park) in southeastern Ecuador. The two pollen records reflect relatively stable vegetation with slight changes in floral composition during the recorded period. Changes of the proportion between subpáramo and páramo vegetation are related to lower and higher frequency of fires. The RVM records show that the upper forest line moved to a higher elevation between 1630 and 880 cal yrs b.p., stabilising after 310 cal yrs b.p. Human impact is suggested by a high fire frequency, mainly between 1800–1600 and 880–310 cal yrs b.p. The VP records indicate no marked changes in the upper forest line. The charcoal records suggest an increased human impact from 230 cal yrs b.p. to the present. The results indicate that high fire frequency is an important factor in reducing the expansion of subpáramo vegetation and upper montane rainforest and in favouring the distribution of grass páramo. Since there is a clear correlation between fire and vegetation dynamics, it is difficult to detect how far climate change also played a significant role in upper forest line changes during the late Holocene.     

Simulated effects of fire,dispersal and spatial pattern on competition within forest mosaics

Simulations representing tree locations on a rectangular grid (cellular automaton) imply that spatial patterns associated with fire, seed dispersal, and the distributions of plants and resources affect forest dynamics profoundly. Simulated fires ignited at random locations in a uniform environment create non-uniform habitats and lead to patches dominated by different vegetation types. Short-range seed dispersal promotes vegetation clumping; fires cause these clumps to coalesce into vegetation zones separated by sharp borders, especially across an environmental gradient. In simulation of competition within vegetation mosaics, tree populations with a competitive advantage still require the intervention of fire to eliminate rivals. Also, the availability of local seed sources enables established tree populations to exclude invaders, but fires can trigger sudden changes in the composition of such systems. In models of simple succession systems, climax vegetation tends to displace pioneer vegetation, even under harsh fire regimes.     

Dispersal limitation drives successional pathways in Central Siberian forests under current and intensified fire regimes

Fire is a primary driver of boreal forest dynamics. Intensifying fire regimes due to climate change may cause a shift in boreal forest composition toward reduced dominance of conifers and greater abundance of deciduous hardwoods, with potential biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks to regional and global climate. This shift has already been observed in some North American boreal forests and has been attributed to changes in site conditions. However, it is unknown if the mechanisms controlling fire‐induced changes in deciduous hardwood cover are similar among different boreal forests, which differ in the ecological traits of the dominant tree species. To better understand the consequences of intensifying fire regimes in boreal forests, we studied postfire regeneration in five burns in the Central Siberian dark taiga, a vast but poorly studied boreal region. We combined field measurements, dendrochronological analysis, and seed‐source maps derived from high‐resolution satellite images to quantify the importance of site conditions (e.g., organic layer depth) vs. seed availability in shaping postfire regeneration. We show that dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers was the main factor determining postfire regeneration composition and density. Site conditions had significant but weaker effects. We used information on postfire regeneration to develop a classification scheme for successional pathways, representing the dominance of deciduous hardwoods vs. evergreen conifers at different successional stages. We estimated the spatial distribution of different successional pathways under alternative fire regime scenarios. Under intensified fire regimes, dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers is predicted to become more severe, primarily due to reduced abundance of surviving seed sources within burned areas. Increased dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers, in turn, is predicted to increase the prevalence of successional pathways dominated by deciduous hardwoods. The likely fire‐induced shift toward greater deciduous hardwood cover may affect climate–vegetation feedbacks via surface albedo, Bowen ratio, and carbon cycling.     

Pollen,wind and fire: how to investigate genetic effects of disturbance‐induced change in forest trees

Understanding the consequences of habitat disturbance on mating patterns although pollen and seed dispersal in forest trees has been a long‐standing theme of forest and conservation genetics. Forest ecosystems face global environmental pressures from timber exploitation to genetic pollution and climate change, and it is therefore essential to comprehend how disturbances may alter the dispersal of genes and their establishment in tree populations in order to formulate relevant recommendations for sustainable resource management practices and realistic predictions of potential adaptation to climate change by means of range shift or expansion (Kremer et al. 2012 ). However, obtaining reliable evidence of disturbance‐induced effects on gene dispersal processes from empirical evaluation of forest tree populations is difficult. Indeed, tree species share characteristics such as high longevity, long generation time and large reproductive population size, which may impede the experimenter's ability to assess parameters at the spatial and time scales at which any change may occur (Petit and Hampe 2006 ). It has been suggested that appropriate study designs should encompass comparison of populations before and after disturbance as well as account for demonstrated variation in conspecific density, that is, the spatial distribution of mates, and forest density, including all species and relating to alteration in landscape openness (Bacles & Jump 2011 ). However, more often than not, empirical studies aiming to assess the consequences of habitat disturbance on genetic processes in tree populations assume rather than quantify a change in tree densities in forests under disturbance and generally fail to account for population history, which may lead to inappropriate interpretation of a causal relationship between population genetic structure and habitat disturbance due to effects of unmonitored confounding variables (Gauzere et al. 2013). In this issue, Shohami and Nathan ( 2014 ) take advantage of the distinctive features of the fire‐adapted wind‐pollinated Aleppo pine Pinus halepensis (Fig. 1) to provide an elegant example of best practice. Thanks to long‐term monitoring of the study site, a natural stand in Israel, Shohami and Nathan witnessed the direct impact of habitat disturbance, here taking the shape of fire, on conspecific and forest densities and compared pre‐ and postdisturbance mating patterns estimated from cones of different ages sampled on the same surviving maternal individuals (Fig. 2). This excellent study design is all the more strong that Shohami and Nathan took further analytical steps to account for confounding variables, such as historical population genetic structure and possible interannual variation in wind conditions, thus giving high credibility to their findings of unequivocal fire‐induced alteration of mating patterns in P. halepensis. Most notably, the authors found, at the pollen pool level, a disruption of local genetic structure which, furthermore, they were able to attribute explicitly to enhanced pollen‐mediated gene immigration into the low‐density fire‐disturbed stand. This cleverly designed research provides a model approach to be followed if we are to advance our understanding of disturbance‐induced dispersal and genetic change in forest trees.     

Avian frugivory and seed dispersal of a large fruited tree in an Indian moist deciduous forest

Seed dispersal systems in degraded areas can be compromised following the decline of large-bodied frugivore populations responsible for their dispersal. In this context we examined the seed dispersal ecology of a large fruited deciduous tree (Dillenia pentagyna) along a forest degradation gradient in India. We examined the effect of structural components of vegetation and frugivore foraging behavior on D. pentagyna seed dispersal. Depauperate mammalian community and declined large avian frugivores e.g. hornbills in our study site make this system a specialized one and currently dependent on only two large bodied avian frugivores. Seed dispersal followed an overall leptokurtic pattern and the seed dispersal kernels were best explained by an inverse power function. Seed dispersal kernels in dense forest indicated longer dispersal distances than moderately dense forest and degraded forest. In degraded areas, no dispersal away from the crown was recorded for D. pentagyna and it occurred at low density. Canopy foliage abundance of the surrounding vegetation of the focal trees was best explained by quantity of seed dispersal by large avian frugivores. The number of avian frugivore species those are effective disperser of D. pentagyna decreased along the degradation gradient. Avian frugivore behavior in terms of visitation and seed swallowed is a determining factor that controls quantity of seed dispersal. Our study underscores deleterious impact of forest degradation on avian disperser community which in turn would affect regeneration capacity of degraded forest.     

Interactions between climate change, competition, dispersal, and disturbances in a tree migration model

Potentially significant shifts in the geographical patterns of vegetation are an expected result of climate change. However, the importance of local processes (e.g., dispersal, competition, or disturbance) has been often ignored in climate change modeling. We develop an individual-based simulation approach to assess how these mechanisms affect migration rate. We simulate the northward progression of a theoretical tree species when climate change makes northern habitat suitable. We test how the rate of progression is affected by (1) competition with a resident species, (2) interactions with disturbance regimes, (3) species dispersal kernel, and (4) the intensity of climate change over time. Results reveal a strong response of species’ expansion rate to the presence of a local competitor, as well as nonlinear effects of disturbance. We discuss these results in light of current knowledge of northern forest dynamics and results found in the climatic research literature.     

Forest Succession and Distance from Forest Edge in an Afro‐Tropical Grassland1

Forest succession on degraded tropical lands often is slowed by impoverished seed banks and low rates of seed dispersal. Within degraded landscapes, remnant forests are potential seed sources that could enhance nearby forest succession. The spatial extent that forest can influence succession, however, remains largely unstudied. In abandoned agricultural lands in Kibale National Park, Uganda, recurrent fires have helped perpetuate the dominance of tall (2–3 m) grasses. We examined the effects of distance from forest and grassland vegetation structure on succession in a grassland having several years of fire exclusion. At 10 and 25 m from forest edge, we quantified vegetation patterns, seed predation, and survival of planted tree seedlings. Natural vegetation was similar at both distances, as was seed (eight species) and seedling (six species) survival; however, distance may be important at spatial or temporal scales not examined in this study. Our results offer insight into forest succession on degraded tropical grasslands following fire exclusion. Naturally recruited trees and tree seedlings were scarce, and seed survival was low (20% after 7 mo). While seedling survival was high (95% after 6 to 8 mo), seedling shoot growth was very slow (x?= 0.5 cm/100 d), suggesting that survivorship eventually may decline. Recurrent fires often impede forest succession in degraded tropical grasslands; however, even with fire exclusion, our study suggests that forest succession can be very slow, even in close proximity to forest.     

Charcoal‐inferred Holocene fire and vegetation history linked to drought periods in the Democratic Republic of Congo

The impact of Holocene drought events on the presumably stable Central African rainforest remains largely unexplored, in particular the significance of fire. High‐quality sedimentary archives are scarce, and palynological records mostly integrate over large regional scales subject to different fire regimes. Here, we demonstrate a direct temporal link between Holocene droughts, palaeofire and vegetation change within present‐day Central African rainforest, using records of identified charcoal fragments extracted from soil in the southern Mayumbe forest (Democratic Republic of Congo). We find three distinct periods of local palaeofire occurrence: 7.8–6.8 ka BP, 2.3–1.5 ka BP, 0.8 ka BP – present. These periods are linked to well‐known Holocene drought anomalies: the 8.2 ka BP event, the 3rd millennium BP rainforest crisis and the Mediaeval Climate Anomaly. During and after these Holocene droughts, the Central African rainforest landscape was characterized by a fragmented pattern with fire‐prone open patches. Some fires occurred during the drought anomalies although most fires seem to lag behind them, which suggests that the open patches remained fire‐prone after the actual climate anomalies. Charcoal identifications indicate that mature rainforest patches did persist through the Early to Mid‐Holocene climatic transition, the subsequent Holocene thermal optimum and the third millennium BP rainforest crisis, until 0.8 ka BP. However, disturbance and fragmentation were probably more prominent near the boundary of the southern Mayumbe forest. Furthermore, the dominance of pioneer and woodland savanna taxa in younger charcoal assemblages indicates that rainforest regeneration was hampered by increasingly severe drought conditions after 0.8 ka BP. These results support the notion of a dynamic forest ecosystem at multicentury time scales across the Central African rainforest.     

Sixteen hundred years of increasing tree cover prior to modern deforestation in Southern Amazon and Central Brazilian savannas

Tropical ecosystems are under increasing pressure from land‐use change and deforestation. Changes in tropical forest cover are expected to affect carbon and water cycling with important implications for climatic stability at global scales. A major roadblock for predicting how tropical deforestation affects climate is the lack of baseline conditions (i.e., prior to human disturbance) of forest–savanna dynamics. To address this limitation, we developed a long‐term analysis of forest and savanna distribution across the Amazon–Cerrado transition of central Brazil. We used soil organic carbon isotope ratios as a proxy for changes in woody vegetation cover over time in response to fluctuations in precipitation inferred from speleothem oxygen and strontium stable isotope records. Based on stable isotope signatures and radiocarbon activity of organic matter in soil profiles, we quantified the magnitude and direction of changes in forest and savanna ecosystem cover. Using changes in tree cover measured in 83 different locations for forests and savannas, we developed interpolation maps to assess the coherence of regional changes in vegetation. Our analysis reveals a broad pattern of woody vegetation expansion into savannas and densification within forests and savannas for at least the past ~1,600 years. The rates of vegetation change varied significantly among sampling locations possibly due to variation in local environmental factors that constrain primary productivity. The few instances in which tree cover declined (7.7% of all sampled profiles) were associated with savannas under dry conditions. Our results suggest a regional increase in moisture and expansion of woody vegetation prior to modern deforestation, which could help inform conservation and management efforts for climate change mitigation. We discuss the possible mechanisms driving forest expansion and densification of savannas directly (i.e., increasing precipitation) and indirectly (e.g., decreasing disturbance) and suggest future research directions that have the potential to improve climate and ecosystem models.     

Reproduction and seedling establishment of Picea glauca across the northernmost forest‐tundra region in Canada

The northern boundary of boreal forest and the ranges of tree species are expected to shift northward in response to climate warming, which will result in a decrease in the albedo of areas currently covered by tundra vegetation, an increase in terrestrial carbon sequestration, and an alteration of biodiversity in the current Low Arctic. Central to the prediction of forest expansion is an increase in the reproductive capacity and establishment of individual trees. We assessed cone production, seed viability, and transplanted seedling success of Picea glauca (Moench.) Voss. (white spruce) in the early 1990s and again in the late 2000s at four forest stand sites and eight tree island sites (clonal populations beyond present treeline) in the Mackenzie Delta region of the Northwest Territories, Canada. Over the past 20 years, average temperatures in this region have increased by 0.9 °C. This area has the northernmost forest‐tundra ecotone in North America and is one of the few circumpolar regions where the northern limit of conifer trees reaches the Arctic Ocean. We found that cone production and seed viability did not change between the two periods of examination and that both variables decreased northward across the forest‐tundra ecotone. Nevertheless, white spruce individuals at the northern limit of the forest‐tundra ecotone produced viable seeds. Furthermore, transplanted seedlings were able to survive in the northernmost sites for 15 years, but there were no signs of natural regeneration. These results indicate that if climatic conditions continue to ameliorate, reproductive output will likely increase, but seedling establishment and forest expansion within the forest‐tundra of this region is unlikely to occur without the availability of suitable recruitment sites. Processes that affect the availability of recruitment sites are likely to be important elsewhere in the circumpolar ecotone, and should be incorporated into models and predictions of climate change and its effects on the northern forest‐tundra ecotone.     

Satellite microwave detection of boreal forest recovery from the extreme 2004 wildfires in Alaska and Canada

The rate of vegetation recovery from boreal wildfire influences terrestrial carbon cycle processes and climate feedbacks by affecting the surface energy budget and land‐atmosphere carbon exchange. Previous forest recovery assessments using satellite optical‐infrared normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and tower CO₂ eddy covariance techniques indicate rapid vegetation recovery within 5–10 years, but these techniques are not directly sensitive to changes in vegetation biomass. Alternatively, the vegetation optical depth (VOD) parameter from satellite passive microwave remote sensing can detect changes in canopy biomass structure and may provide a useful metric of post‐fire vegetation response to inform regional recovery assessments. We analyzed a multi‐year (2003–2010) satellite VOD record from the NASA AMSR‐E (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS) sensor to estimate forest recovery trajectories for 14 large boreal fires from 2004 in Alaska and Canada. The VOD record indicated initial post‐fire canopy biomass recovery within 3–7 years, lagging NDVI recovery by 1–5 years. The VOD lag was attributed to slower non‐photosynthetic (woody) and photosynthetic (foliar) canopy biomass recovery, relative to the faster canopy greenness response indicated from the NDVI. The duration of VOD recovery to pre‐burn conditions was also directly proportional (P < 0.01) to satellite (moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer) estimated tree cover loss used as a metric of fire severity. Our results indicate that vegetation biomass recovery from boreal fire disturbance is generally slower than reported from previous assessments based solely on satellite optical‐infrared remote sensing, while the VOD parameter enables more comprehensive assessments of boreal forest recovery.     

Mechanisms of Araucaria (Atlantic) Forest Expansion into Southern Brazilian Grasslands

Recent studies have shown that tropical and subtropical forests expanded during the late Holocene, but rates and mechanisms of expansion are still unknown. Here, we investigate how a forest–grassland mosaic changed over the past 10,000 years at the southernmost limit of the Brazilian Atlantic forest. We used soil organic matter carbon isotopes (δ¹³C and ¹⁴C) to quantify and date changes in vegetation, examining soil properties and leaf traits of tree species (nutrient content, δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N, and specific leaf area—SLA) to describe potential mechanisms of expansion. Our results show that after several millennia of stability, forests have been expanding over grasslands through continuous, but very slow, border dynamics and patch formation (<100 m since ~4,000 YBP). This process of expansion coincided with past changes in climate, but biotic feedback mechanisms also appear to be important for the long-term persistence and expansion of forests. Soil fertility and microbial biomass match current rather than past vegetation distribution, increasing progressively across the gradient: grasslands < isolated trees < forest patches < forests. Foliar δ¹⁵N values of trees that are able to colonize the grassland are consistently lower across this vegetation gradient, suggesting an increasingly greater reliance on symbiotic nutrient uptake from grasslands to forests. No significant relationships were found between soil and leaf nutrients, but SLA explained variation in leaf N, P, and K (positive relationships) and in leaf δ¹³C (negative relationship). These findings suggest that a tradeoff between tree growth and water use efficiency is an important regulator of forest–grassland dynamics in the study region.     

Persistent soil seed banks in old-growth Hyrcanian Box tree (Buxus hyrcana) stands in northern Iran

Little is known about the soil seed bank and the influence of plant communities on the interaction between the seed bank and aboveground vegetation in the Hyrcanian temperate deciduous forest. We surveyed species composition and diversity of the persistent soil seed bank and the aboveground vegetation in six community types in old-growth Hyrcanian Box tree (Buxus hyrcana) stands in northern Iran. Fifty-two species with an average of 3,808 seeds/spores m⁻² germinated; forbs accounted for 64% of the seed bank flora. Thirty-four species in the aboveground vegetation were not presented in the seed bank, 32 species in the seed bank were not found in the vegetation, and 20 species were in both. The dominant tree species were Diospyros lotus and Alnus subcordata with an average of 17 and 4.6 seeds m⁻², respectively. Our results suggest that (1) vernal geophytes and shade-tolerant perennials are not incorporated in the seed bank, (2) early successional species are well represented in the seed bank, (3) plant community type has significant impacts on seed bank densities, and seed bank richness and diversity were significantly related to presence/absence of Box tree in the aboveground vegetation. The persistent seed bank contained species that potentially have a negative impact on the regeneration of forests, thus forest managers should retain old-growth Hyrcanian Box tree stands to conserve disturbance-sensitive indicator forest species.     

Spatiotemporal Variations of Fire Frequency in Central Boreal Forest

Determination of the direct causal factors controlling wildfires is key to understanding wildfire–vegetation–climate dynamics in a changing climate and for developing sustainable management strategies for biodiversity conservation and maintenance of long-term forest productivity. In this study, we sought to understand how the fire frequency of a large mixedwood forest in the central boreal shield varies as a result of temporal and spatial factors. We reconstructed the fire history of an 11,600-km² area located in the northwestern boreal forest of Ontario, using archival data of large fires occurring since 1921 and dendrochronological dating for fires prior to 1921. The fire cycle decreased from 295 years for the period of 1820–1920 to approximately 100 years for the period of 1921–2008. Spatially, fire frequency increased with latitude, attributable to higher human activities that have increased fragmentation and fire suppression in the southern portion of the study area. Fire frequency also increased with distance to waterbodies, and was higher on Podzols that were strongly correlated with moderate drainage and coniferous vegetation. The temporal increase of fire frequency in the central region, unlike western and eastern boreal forests where fire frequency has decreased, may be a result of increased warm and dry conditions associated with climate change in central North America, suggesting that the response of wildfire to global climate change may be regionally individualistic. The significant spatial factors we found in this study are in agreement with other wildfire studies, indicating the commonality of the influences by physiographic features and human activities on regional fire regimes across the boreal forest. Overall, wildfire in the central boreal shield is more frequent than that in the wetter eastern boreal region and less frequent than that in the drier western boreal region, confirming a climatic top-down control on the fire activities of the entire North American boreal forest.     

Range shift and loss of genetic diversity under climate change in Caryocar brasiliense, a Neotropical tree species

Many species have suffered reduction in habitable area due to recent climate change, but few studies evaluated how these range collapses will impact genetic diversity. Here, we modeled shifts in the species’ geographical range to evaluate how genetic diversity of Caryocar brasiliense will change as a consequence of predicted climate change in the next 50 years. A total of 135 records of species occurrence were obtained to model species’ distribution based on the current environment using MAXENT and forecasting future distribution using a combination of three coupled atmospheric–oceanic global circulation models. Genetic parameters were estimated based on the polymorphism at ten microsatellite loci for 466 individuals. Our results show that climatic suitable areas for C. brasiliense will be restricted to the southernmost distribution of savanna vegetation. Genetic diversity and the number of alleles may decrease slowly if populations persist in regions up to 0.5 of environmental suitability estimated by MAXENT, but will sharply decrease above this level. Nevertheless, deviation from mutation–drift equilibrium is significant even if a small amount of local populations is lost. More climatic suitable areas in the future will be in the most disturbed regions in Brazil, and populations that will persist there are those with higher levels of inbreeding at present. This may impose several threats to the species, including the limited capacity to cope with ongoing climatic changes by adaptation and constraints to dispersal.     

Edge fires drive the shape and stability of tropical forests

In tropical regions, fires propagate readily in grasslands but typically consume only edges of forest patches. Thus, forest patches grow due to tree propagation and shrink by fires in surrounding grasslands. The interplay between these competing edge effects is unknown, but critical in determining the shape and stability of individual forest patches, as well the landscape‐level spatial distribution and stability of forests. We analyze high‐resolution remote‐sensing data from protected Brazilian Cerrado areas and find that forest shapes obey a robust perimeter–area scaling relation across climatic zones. We explain this scaling by introducing a heterogeneous fire propagation model of tropical forest‐grassland ecotones. Deviations from this perimeter–area relation determine the stability of individual forest patches. At a larger scale, our model predicts that the relative rates of tree growth due to propagative expansion and long‐distance seed dispersal determine whether collapse of regional‐scale tree cover is continuous or discontinuous as fire frequency changes.     

The role of Orii’s flying-fox (Pteropus dasymallus inopinatus) as a pollinator and a seed disperser on Okinawa-jima Island, the Ryukyu Archipelago, Japan

The role of the Orii’s flying-fox (Pteropus dasymallus inopinatus) as a pollinator and a seed disperser on Okinawa-jima Island was investigated by direct observations and radio-tracking from October 2001 until January 2006. We found that Orii’s flying-fox potentially pollinated seven native plant species. Its feeding behavior and plant morphological traits suggested that this species is an important pollinator of Schima wallichii liukiuensis and Mucuna macrocarpa. The flying-fox also dispersed the seeds of 20 native plant species. The seeds of all plants eaten by the flying-fox were usually dropped beneath the parent tree, although large fruits of four plant species were occasionally brought to the feeding roosts in the mouth, with the maximum dispersal distance—for Terminalia catappa—estimated to be 126 m. Small seeds of 11 species (mostly Ficus species) were dispersed around other trees, during the subsequent feeding session, through the digestive tracts, with the mean dispersal distance for ingested seeds estimated at 150 ± 230.3 m (±SD); the maximum dispersal distance was 1833 m. A comparison of the seed dispersal of available fruits according to the size of flying-foxes and other frugivores suggested that the seed dispersal of eight plant species producing large fruits mostly depended on Orii’s flying-fox. On Okinawa-jima Island, the Orii’s flying-fox plays an important role as a pollinator of two native plants and as a long-distance seed disperser of Ficus species, and it functions as a limited agent of seed dispersal for plants producing large fruits on Okinawa-jima Island.     

Anthropogenic‐driven rapid shifts in tree distribution lead to increased dominance of broadleaf species

Over the past century, major shifts in the geographic distribution of tree species have occurred in response to changes in land use and climate. We analyse species distribution and abundance from about 33 000 forest inventory plots in Spain sampled twice over a period of 10–12 years. We show a dominance of range contraction (extinction), and demographic decline over range expansion (colonization), with seven of 11 species exhibiting extinction downhill of their distribution. Contrary to expectations, these dynamics are not always consistent with climate warming over the study period, but result from legacies in forest structure due to past land use change and fire occurrence. We find that these changes have led to the expansion of broadleaf species (i.e. family Fagaceae) over areas formerly dominated by conifer species (i.e. family Pinaceae), due to the greater capacity of the former to respond to most disturbances and their higher competitive ability. This recent and rapid transition from conifers to broadleaves has important implications in forest dynamics and ecosystem services they provide. The finding raises the question as to whether the increasing dominance of relatively drought‐sensitive broadleaf species will diminish resilience of Mediterranean forests to very likely drier conditions in the future.     

Local seed dispersal in European silver fir (Abies alba Mill.): lessons learned from a seed trap experiment

Seed dispersal is an important factor influencing the genetic structure of forest tree populations. Knowledge about the seed shadow is important to assess the ability of tree species to colonize new and disturbed habitats or to respond to environmental change by migrating to more suitable habitats. In a seed trap experiment, we investigated local seed dispersal distances of silver fir seeds (Abies alba Mill.) by explicitly identifying mother trees. For this purpose, we matched microsatellite genotypes of maternal tissues of seeds with the genotypes of adult trees in the studied stand. Furthermore, we analysed the effect of morphological traits on dispersal distance, and we assessed the number of contributing mother trees and compared the seed density of the closed forest-stand with the adjacent blowdown. Based on 674 seeds collected in a grid of 37 seed traps, a significant decline in seed density was observed from within the forest to the forest blowdown area >40 m from the forest edge. A median dispersal distance of 31 m was determined for filled seeds based on direct assignment of seeds to their mother trees. This was higher than that determined in the previous studies using different methods. Dispersal distance was negatively correlated to seed-weight, but this was partially compensated for by the length of seed wings. A very large number of unassigned maternal genotypes (435) suggested that dispersal distance might have been underestimated. Lessons for future studies were: to perform a full genotypic inventory of adult trees in a defined perimeter, to increase the number of microsatellite markers and to study several sites over a period of several years.     

How disturbance,competition, and dispersal interact to prevent tree range boundaries from keeping pace with climate change

Climate change is expected to cause geographic shifts in tree species' ranges, but such shifts may not keep pace with climate changes because seed dispersal distances are often limited and competition‐induced changes in community composition can be relatively slow. Disturbances may speed changes in community composition, but the interactions among climate change, disturbance and competitive interactions to produce range shifts are poorly understood. We used a physiologically based mechanistic landscape model to study these interactions in the northeastern United States. We designed a series of disturbance scenarios to represent varied disturbance regimes in terms of both disturbance extent and intensity. We simulated forest succession by incorporating climate change under a high‐emissions future, disturbances, seed dispersal, and competition using the landscape model parameterized with forest inventory data. Tree species range boundary shifts in the next century were quantified as the change in the location of the 5th (the trailing edge) and 95th (the leading edge) percentiles of the spatial distribution of simulated species. Simulated tree species range boundary shifts in New England over the next century were far below (usually <20 km) that required to track the velocity of temperature change (usually more than 110 km over 100 years) under a high‐emissions scenario. Simulated species` ranges shifted northward at both the leading edge (northern boundary) and trailing edge (southern boundary). Disturbances may expedite species' recruitment into new sites, but they had little effect on the velocity of simulated range boundary shifts. Range shifts at the trailing edge tended to be associated with photosynthetic capacity, competitive ability for light and seed dispersal ability, whereas shifts at the leading edge were associated only with photosynthetic capacity and competition for light. This study underscores the importance of understanding the role of interspecific competition and disturbance when studying tree range shifts.