Diverse water quality responses to extreme climate events: an introduction

We synthesize and summarize main findings from a special issue examining the origins, evolution, and resilience of diverse water quality responses to extreme climate events resulting from a Chapman Conference of the American Geophysical Union (AGU). Origins refer to sequences of interactive disturbances and antecedent conditions that influence diversification of water quality responses to extreme events. Evolution refers to the amplification, intensification, and persistence of water quality signals across space and time in watersheds. Resilience refers to strategies for managing and minimizing extreme water quality impacts and ecosystem recovery. The contributions of this special issue, taken together, highlight the following: (1) there is diversification in the origins of water quality responses to extreme climate events based on the intensity, duration, and magnitude of the event mediated by previous historical conditions; (2) interactions between climate variability and watershed disturbances (e.g., channelization of river networks, land use change, and deforestation) amplify water quality ‘pulses,’ which can manifest as large changes in chemical concentrations and fluxes over relatively short time periods. In the context of the evolution of water quality responses, results highlight: (3) there are high intensity and long-term climate events, which can generate unique sequences in water quality, which have differential impacts on persistence of water quality problems and ecosystem recovery rates; and (4) ‘chemical cocktails’ or novel mixtures of elements and compounds are transported and transformed during extreme climate events. The main findings regarding resilience to extreme climate events are that: (5) river restoration strategies for reducing pollution from extreme events can be improved by preserving and restoring floodplains, wetlands, and oxbow ponds, which enhance hydrologic and biogeochemical retention, and lengthen the distribution of hydrologic residence times; and (6) the biogeochemical capacity for stream and river ecosystems to retain and transform pollution from landscapes can become “saturated” during floods unless watershed pollution sources are reduced. Finally, the unpredictable occurrence of extreme climate events argues for wider deployment of high-frequency, in situ sensors for monitoring, managing, and modeling diverse water quality responses. These sensors can be used to develop robust proxies for chemical cocktails, detect water quality violations following extreme climate events, and effectively trace the trajectory of water quality recovery in response to managing ecosystem resilience.     

Assessment of ecosystem resilience to hydroclimatic disturbances in India

Recent studies have shown an increasing trend in hydroclimatic disturbances like droughts, which are anticipated to become more frequent and intense under global warming and climate change. Droughts adversely affect the vegetation growth and crop yield, which enhances the risks to food security for a country like India with over 1.2 billion people to feed. Here, we compared the response of terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) to hydroclimatic disturbances in India at different scales (i.e., at river basins, land covers, and climate types) to examine the ecosystems’ resilience to such adverse conditions. The ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE_e: NPP/Evapotranspiration) is an effective indicator of ecosystem productivity, linking carbon (C) and water cycles. We found a significant difference (p < .05) in WUE_e across India at different scales. The ecosystem resilience analysis indicated that most of the river basins were not resilient enough to hydroclimatic disturbances. Drastic reduction in WUE_e under dry conditions was observed for some basins, which highlighted the cross‐biome incapability to withstand such conditions. The ecosystem resilience at land cover and climate type scale did not completely relate to the basin‐scale ecosystem resilience, which indicated that ecosystem resilience at basin scale is controlled by some other ecohydrological processes. Our results facilitate the identification of the most sensitive regions in the country for ecosystem management and climate policy making, and highlight the need for taking sufficient adaptation measures to ensure sustainability of ecosystems.     

Global agricultural intensification during climate change: a role for genomics

Agriculture is now facing the ‘perfect storm’ of climate change, increasing costs of fertilizer and rising food demands from a larger and wealthier human population. These factors point to a global food deficit unless the efficiency and resilience of crop production is increased. The intensification of agriculture has focused on improving production under optimized conditions, with significant agronomic inputs. Furthermore, the intensive cultivation of a limited number of crops has drastically narrowed the number of plant species humans rely on. A new agricultural paradigm is required, reducing dependence on high inputs and increasing crop diversity, yield stability and environmental resilience. Genomics offers unprecedented opportunities to increase crop yield, quality and stability of production through advanced breeding strategies, enhancing the resilience of major crops to climate variability, and increasing the productivity and range of minor crops to diversify the food supply. Here we review the state of the art of genomic‐assisted breeding for the most important staples that feed the world, and how to use and adapt such genomic tools to accelerate development of both major and minor crops with desired traits that enhance adaptation to, or mitigate the effects of climate change.     

Historical climate‐human‐ecosystem interaction in East Africa: a review

The palaeoecological visibility of historical human impact on natural ecosystems in tropical East Africa is strongly impeded by an overriding dominant signature of climate change at decadal‐to‐millennial time scales. Better knowledge of the relative magnitude and timing of present and past human impact and climate variability is, however, instrumental to properly assess the resilience, and recovery potential, of East Africa's natural ecosystems. Here, we briefly review comprehensive previous attempts to assess past ecosystem responses to climate change and human impact. We further discuss some key issues of climate‐human‐ecosystem relationships in a multidisciplinary framework and address some future challenges and outcomes, which may pave the way to a better understanding of past climate‐human‐ecosystem interaction‐ in tropical Africa.     

Effects of Harvesting Forest Biomass on Water and Climate Regulation Services: A Synthesis of Long-Term Ecosystem Experiments in Eastern North America

Demand for woody biomass fuels is increasing amidst concerns about global energy security and climate change, but there may be negative implications of increased harvesting for forest ecosystem functions and their benefits to society (ecosystem services). Using new methods for assessing ecosystem services based on long-term experimental research, post-harvest changes in ten potential benefits were assessed for ten first-order northern hardwood forest watersheds at three long-term experimental research sites in northeastern North America. As expected, we observed near-term tradeoffs between biomass provision and greenhouse gas regulation, as well as tradeoffs between intensive harvest and the capacity of the forest to remediate nutrient pollution. In both cases, service provision began to recover along with the regeneration of forest vegetation; in the case of pollution remediation, the service recovered to pre-harvest levels within 10 years. By contrast to these two services, biomass harvesting had relatively nominal and transient impacts on other ecosystem services. Our results are sensitive to empirical definitions of societal demand, including methods for scaling societal demand to ecosystem units, which are often poorly resolved. Reducing uncertainty around these parameters can improve confidence in our results and increase their relevance for decision-making. Our synthesis of long-term experimental studies provides insights on the social-ecological resilience of managed forest ecosystems to multiple drivers of change.     

Sensitivity of primary production to precipitation across the United States

Primary production, a key regulator of the global carbon cycle, is highly responsive to variations in climate. Yet, a detailed, continental‐scale risk assessment of climate‐related impacts on primary production is lacking. We combined 16 years of MODIS NDVI data, a remotely sensed proxy for primary production, with observations from 1218 climate stations to derive values of ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation and aridity. For the first time, we produced an empirically‐derived map of ecosystem sensitivity to climate across the conterminous United States. Over this 16‐year period, annual primary production values were most sensitive to precipitation and aridity in dryland and grassland ecosystems. Century‐long trends measured at the climate stations showed intensifying aridity and climatic variability in many of these sensitive regions. Dryland ecosystems in the western US may be particularly vulnerable to reductions in primary production and consequent degradation of ecosystem services as climate change and variability increase in the future.     

Vulnerability of the global terrestrial ecosystems to climate change

Climate change has far‐reaching impacts on ecosystems. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climate change but largely ignore ecosystem resistance and resilience, which may also affect the vulnerability outcomes. In this study, the relative vulnerability of global terrestrial ecosystems to short‐term climate variability was assessed by simultaneously integrating exposure, sensitivity, and resilience at a high spatial resolution (0.05°). The results show that vulnerable areas are currently distributed primarily in plains. Responses to climate change vary among ecosystems and deserts and xeric shrublands are the most vulnerable biomes. Global vulnerability patterns are determined largely by exposure, while ecosystem sensitivity and resilience may exacerbate or alleviate external climate pressures at local scales; there is a highly significant negative correlation between exposure and sensitivity. Globally, 61.31% of the terrestrial vegetated area is capable of mitigating climate change impacts and those areas are concentrated in polar regions, boreal forests, tropical rainforests, and intact forests. Under current sensitivity and resilience conditions, vulnerable areas are projected to develop in high Northern Hemisphere latitudes in the future. The results suggest that integrating all three aspects of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and resilience) may offer more comprehensive and spatially explicit adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems.     

Introduction: food crops in a changing climate

Changes in both the mean and the variability of climate, whether naturally forced, or due to human activities, pose a threat to crop production globally. This paper summarizes discussions of this issue at a meeting of the Royal Society in April 2005. Recent advances in understanding the sensitivity of crops to weather, climate and the levels of particular gases in the atmosphere indicate that the impact of these factors on crop yields and quality may be more severe than previously thought. There is increasing information on the importance to crop yields of extremes of temperature and rainfall at key stages of crop development. Agriculture will itself impact on the climate system and a greater understanding of these feedbacks is needed. Complex models are required to perform simulations of climate variability and change, together with predictions of how crops will respond to different climate variables. Variability of climate, such as that associated with El Ni?o events, has large impacts on crop production. If skilful predictions of the probability of such events occurring can be made a season or more in advance, then agricultural and other societal responses can be made. The development of strategies to adapt to variations in the current climate may also build resilience to changes in future climate. Africa will be the part of the world that is most vulnerable to climate variability and change, but knowledge of how to use climate information and the regional impacts of climate variability and change in Africa is rudimentary. In order to develop appropriate adaptation strategies globally, predictions about changes in the quantity and quality of food crops need to be considered in the context of the entire food chain from production to distribution, access and utilization. Recommendations for future research priorities are given.     

Addressing barriers to improve biocrust colonization and establishment in dryland restoration

Methods to reduce soil loss and associated loss of ecosystem functions due to land degradation are of particular importance in dryland ecosystems. Biocrusts are communities of cyanobacteria, lichens, and bryophytes that are vulnerable to soil disturbance, but provide vital ecosystem functions when present. Biocrusts stabilize soil, improve hydrologic function, and increase nutrient and carbon inputs. Methods to reestablish biocrust rapidly, when lost from ecosystems, have the potential to restore important dryland ecosystem functions and thereby increase probability of successful rehabilitation. The aim of this study was to identify habitat ameliorations to enhance the success of biocrust inoculation by: (1) reducing physiological stress on biocrusts and increasing resource availability (using shade, soil surface roughening, and watering), and (2) stabilizing mobile soils (using straw borders, three soil tackifiers [soil stabilizers], and a combination of shade, water, roughening, and tackifier). In the Great Basin Desert on the Utah Test and Training Range near Salt Lake City, we applied field‐harvested biocrust material to experimental plots on coarse‐ and fine‐textured soils with the top 2 cm of soil and biocrust removed. Habitat ameliorations were applied with and without biocrust addition. Shade provision increased biocrust cover 50% over controls. Biocrust cover and soil stability were 65% lower in straw border plots relative to controls. Soil tackifiers, alone and in combination with resource augmentation and stress reduction, did not improve cover and stabilization over inoculated controls. We found variability in recovery by time and between soil types. These results suggest plausible strategies to improve success of biocrust inoculation.     

Biodiversity enhancement induced by environmental noise

Recent research in ecology has concentrated on the effect of environmental changes on ecosystem structure and function. In most cases the focus has been on how ecosystems respond to changes in the mean values of environmental parameters, while the impact of changes in the variance has seldom been studied. However, changes in environmental variability may be important. For example, recent climate change predictions indicate that, in addition to trends in the mean values of climate variables, an increase in interannual variability is expected to occur in the near future. How will this increase in the variance of environmental parameters affect the dynamics of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems? Environmental fluctuations are usually believed to play a "destructive role" in ecosystem dynamics and to act as a source of disturbance, which perturbs the state of a system. However, noise is also known for its "constructive role", i.e., for the ability to create new ordered states in dynamical systems. Here we show that environmental noise may also enhance biodiversity. To this end we develop a conceptual model to show how random environmental fluctuations may favor biodiversity. Noise-induced biodiversity is observed for moderate levels of noise intensity, while it disappears with stronger environmental fluctuations, consistently with the notion underlying the "intermediate disturbance hypothesis".     

Ecosystem feedbacks constrain the effect of day-to-day weather variability on land–atmosphere carbon exchange

Whole-ecosystem interactions and feedbacks constrain ecosystem responses to environmental change. The effects of these constraints on responses to climate trends and extreme weather events have been well studied. Here we examine how these constraints respond to changes in day-to-day weather variability without changing the long-term mean weather. Although environmental variability is recognized as a critical factor affecting ecological function, the effects of climate change on day-to-day weather variability and the resultant impacts on ecosystem function are still poorly understood. Changes in weather variability can alter the mean rates of individual ecological processes because many processes respond non-linearly to environmental drivers. We assessed how these individual-process responses to changes in day-to-day weather variability interact with one another at an ecosystem level. We examine responses of arctic tundra to changes in weather variability using stochastic simulations of daily temperature, precipitation, and light to drive a biogeochemical model. Changes in weather variability altered ecosystem carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus stocks and cycling rates in our model. However, responses of some processes (e.g., respiration) were inconsistent with expectations because ecosystem feedbacks can moderate, or even reverse, direct process responses to weather variability. More weather variability led to greater carbon losses from land to atmosphere; less variability led to higher carbon sequestration on land. The magnitude of modeled ecosystem response to weather variability was comparable to that predicted for the effects of climate mean trends by the end of the century.     

Climate science and famine early warning

Food security assessment in sub-Saharan Africa requires simultaneous consideration of multiple socio-economic and environmental variables. Early identification of populations at risk enables timely and appropriate action. Since large and widely dispersed populations depend on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, climate monitoring and forecasting are important inputs to food security analysis. Satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) fill in gaps in station observations, and serve as input to drought index maps and crop water balance models. Gridded rainfall time-series give historical context, and provide a basis for quantitative interpretation of seasonal precipitation forecasts. RFE are also used to characterize flood hazards, in both simple indices and stream flow models. In the future, many African countries are likely to see negative impacts on subsistence agriculture due to the effects of global warming. Increased climate variability is forecast, with more frequent extreme events. Ethiopia requires special attention. Already facing a food security emergency, troubling persistent dryness has been observed in some areas, associated with a positive trend in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. Increased African capacity for rainfall observation, forecasting, data management and modelling applications is urgently needed. Managing climate change and increased climate variability require these fundamental technical capacities if creative coping strategies are to be devised.     

Exploring natural selection to guide breeding for agriculture

Climate change threatens reduced crop production and poses major challenges to food security. The breeding of climate‐resilient crop varieties is increasingly urgent. Wild plant populations evolve to cope with changes in their environment due to the forces of natural selection. This adaptation may be followed over time in populations at the same site or explored by examining differences between populations growing in different environments or across an environmental gradient. Survival in the wild has important differences to the objective of agriculture to maximize crop yields. However, understanding the nature of adaptation in wild populations at the whole genome level may suggest strategies for crop breeding to deliver agricultural production with more resilience to climate variability.     

Stability of complex food webs: resilience, resistance and the average interaction strength

In the face of stochastic climatic perturbations, the overall stability of an ecosystem will be determined by the balance between its resilience and its resistance, but their relative importance is still unknown. Using aquatic food web models we study ecosystem stability as a function of food web complexity. We measured three dynamical stability properties: resilience, resistance, and variability. Specifically, we evaluate how a decrease in the strength of predator-prey interactions with food web complexity, reflecting a decrease in predation efficiency with the number of prey per predator, affects the overall stability of the ecosystem. We find that in mass conservative ecosystems, a lower interaction strength slows down the mass cycling rate in the system and this increases its resistance to perturbations of the growth rate of primary producers. Furthermore, we show that the overall stability of the food webs is mostly given by their resistance, and not by their resilience. Resilience and resistance display opposite trends, although they are shown not to be simply opposite concepts but rather independent properties. The ecological implication is that weaker predator-prey interactions in closed ecosystems can stabilize food web dynamics by increasing its resistance to climatic perturbations.     

Species richness facilitates ecosystem resilience in aquatic food webs

1. Many studies indicate that biodiversity in ecosystems affects stability, either by promoting temporal stability of ecosystem attributes or by enhancing ecosystem resistance and resilience to perturbation. The effects on temporal stability are reasonably well understood and documented but effects on resistance and resilience are not. 2. Here, we report results from an aquatic mesocosm experiment in which we manipulated the species richness and composition of aquatic food webs (macrophytes, macro‐herbivores and invertebrate predators), imposed a pulse disturbance (acidification), and monitored the resistance (initial response) and resilience (recovery) of ecosystem productivity and respiration. 3. We found that species‐rich macroinvertebrate communities had higher resilience of whole‐ecosystem respiration, but were not more resistant to perturbations. We also found that resilience and resistance were unaffected by species composition, despite the strong role composition is known to play in determining mean levels of function in these communities. 4. Biodiversity’s effects on resilience were probably mediated through complex pathways affecting phytoplankton and microbial communities (e.g. via changes in nutrient regeneration, grazing or compositional changes) rather than through simpler effects (e.g. insurance effects, enhanced facilitation) although these simpler mechanisms probably played minor roles in enhancing respiration resilience. 5. Current mechanisms for understanding biodiversity’s effects on ecosystem stability have been developed primarily in the context of single‐trophic level communities. These mechanisms may be overly simplistic for understanding the consequences of species richness on ecosystem stability in complex, multi‐trophic food webs where additional factors such as indirect effects and highly variable life‐history traits of species may also be important.     

Climate change and food security

Dynamic interactions between and within the biogeophysical and human environments lead to the production, processing, distribution, preparation and consumption of food, resulting in food systems that underpin food security. Food systems encompass food availability (production, distribution and exchange), food access (affordability, allocation and preference) and food utilization (nutritional and societal values and safety), so that food security is, therefore, diminished when food systems are stressed. Such stresses may be induced by a range of factors in addition to climate change and/or other agents of environmental change (e.g. conflict, HIV/AIDS) and may be particularly severe when these factors act in combination. Urbanization and globalization are causing rapid changes to food systems. Climate change may affect food systems in several ways ranging from direct effects on crop production (e.g. changes in rainfall leading to drought or flooding, or warmer or cooler temperatures leading to changes in the length of growing season), to changes in markets, food prices and supply chain infrastructure. The relative importance of climate change for food security differs between regions. For example, in southern Africa, climate is among the most frequently cited drivers of food insecurity because it acts both as an underlying, ongoing issue and as a short-lived shock. The low ability to cope with shocks and to mitigate long-term stresses means that coping strategies that might be available in other regions are unavailable or inappropriate. In other regions, though, such as parts of the Indo-Gangetic Plain of India, other drivers, such as labour issues and the availability and quality of ground water for irrigation, rank higher than the direct effects of climate change as factors influencing food security. Because of the multiple socio-economic and bio-physical factors affecting food systems and hence food security, the capacity to adapt food systems to reduce their vulnerability to climate change is not uniform. Improved systems of food production, food distribution and economic access may all contribute to food systems adapted to cope with climate change, but in adopting such changes it will be important to ensure that they contribute to sustainability. Agriculture is a major contributor of the greenhouse gases methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), so that regionally derived policies promoting adapted food systems need to mitigate further climate change.     

The perils of climate change: In utero exposure to temperature variability and birth outcomes in the Andean region

The discussion on the effects of climate change on human activity has primarily focused on how increasing temperature levels can impair human health. However, less attention has been paid to the effect of increased climate variability on health. We investigate how in utero exposure to temperature variability, measured as the fluctuations relative to the historical local temperature mean, affects birth outcomes in the Andean region. Our results suggest that exposure to a temperate one standard deviation relative to the municipality’s long-term temperature mean during pregnancy reduces birth weight by 20 g. and increases the probability a child is born with low birth weight by a 0.7 percentage point. We also explore potential channels driving our results and find some evidence that increased temperature variability can lead to a decrease in health care and increased food insecurity during pregnancy.     

Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest‐weed‐disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades.     

Integrated management of land and water resources based on a collective approach to fragmented international conventions

Interlinked crises of land degradation, food security, ecosystem decline, water quality and water flow depletion stand in the way of poverty reduction and sustainable development. These crises are made worse by increased fluctuations in climatic regimes. Single-purpose international conventions address these crises in a piecemeal, sectoral fashion and may not meet their objectives without greater attention to policy, legal, and institutional reforms related to: (i) balancing competing uses of land and water resources within hydrologic units; (ii) adopting integrated approaches to management; and (iii) establishing effective governance institutions for adaptive management within transboundary basins. This paper describes this global challenge and argues that peace, stability and security are all at stake when integrated approaches are not used. The paper presents encouraging results from a decade of transboundary water projects supported by the Global Environment Facility in developing countries that test practical applications of processes for facilitating reforms related to land and water that are underpinned by science-based approaches. Case studies of using these participative processes are described that collectively assist in the transition to integrated management. A new imperative for incorporating interlinkages among food, water, and environment security at the basin level is identified.     

EAM会议专刊辑述评——气候变化下旱区农业生态系统的可持续性

农业生产是将自然资源不断转化为农产品的过程。简单的说就是将阳光、空气、水和土壤等无机资源转化为可以供人类消费的有机产物。农业生态系统必须对全球气候变化、市场竞争、自然环境的恶化、经济等政策法规和人民的需求等因素做出灵活的应对策略,同时还要保证自然生态系统的稳定性。在发展中国家,有超过20亿的人口每天收入低于2美元,他们收入中绝大部分都用于解决温饱。这些人大部分生活在干旱、半干旱地区,并以农业生产作为生活的主要来源。由于这些地区水资源匮乏、土壤贫瘠,粮食安全问题一直是该地区人类生存的关键。中澳两国都把干旱、半干旱地区的农牧业发展作为研究的重点。两国的专家都致力于恢复和维护干旱半干旱地区脆弱的农业生态系统。气候变化正在使农业生态系统可持续发展面临严峻挑战。因此,迫切需要农学,生态学,环境学,社会经济学等多学科的共同发展和融合解决这一问题。2010年7月20—25日在兰州大学举办了以“气候变化和旱区农业生态系统管理”为主题的“第二届生态系统评估与管理（EAM）国际会议”。国内外众多知名专家参与了此次会议,并共同讨论在全球气候变化背景下如何提高干旱半干旱地区脆弱农业生态系统生产力与可持续性。本次会议的议题是：(1）半干旱地区旱作雨养农业生态系统评估与管理,(2）干旱地区绿洲农业生态系统评估与管理。此次会议由兰州大学和澳大利亚西澳大学联合主办,中国科学院生态环境研究中心协办,由国家教育部和国家外专局联合支持、兰州大学干旱与草地生态教育部重点实验室承担的“旱寒生态学”学科创新引智基地和西澳大学农业研究院、FAO属下的叙利亚国际旱地农业研究中心(ICARDA)联合提供资金支持。会议期间,25位专家就干旱、半干旱地区植物土壤互作关系作了报告。另外还有18位在干旱半干旱地区科研一线工作的青年学者汇报了研究进展,并与专家进行了广泛交流。报告会之后,大会组织专家分别对典型旱区农业进行了考察,分别是兰州大学黄土高原旱地农业生态实验站(榆中)和甘肃武威市民勤绿洲农业生态系统。此次大会遴选出35篇学术论文,以专刊的形式发表于《生态学报》第31卷第9期。会议遴选出的其它英文文章将于2011年在《Plant and Soil》和《Crop and Pasture Science》上发表,敬请期待。我们相信,本专刊的出版将会对气候变化背景下旱区农业生态系统的研究和发展产生重要的推动作用。