Climate Change Effects on Vegetation Distribution and Carbon Budget in the United States

The Kyoto protocol has focused the attention of the public and policymarkers on the earth's carbon (C) budget. Previous estimates of the impacts of vegetation change have been limited to equilibrium “snapshots” that could not capture nonlinear or threshold effects along the trajectory of change. New models have been designed to complement equilibrium models and simulate vegetation succession through time while estimating variability in the C budget and responses to episodic events such as drought and fire. In addition, a plethora of future climate scenarios has been used to produce a bewildering variety of simulated ecological responses. Our objectives were to use an equilibrium model (Mapped Atmosphere–Plant–Soil system, or MAPSS) and a dynamic model (MC1) to (a) simulate changes in potential equilibrium vegetation distribution under historical conditions and across a wide gradient of future temperature changes to look for consistencies and trends among the many future scenarios, (b) simulate time-dependent changes in vegetation distribution and its associated C pools to illustrate the possible trajectories of vegetation change near the high and low ends of the temperature gradient, and (c) analyze the extent of the US area supporting a negative C balance. Both models agree that a moderate increase in temperature produces an increase in vegetation density and carbon sequestration across most of the US with small changes in vegetation types. Large increases in temperature cause losses of C with large shifts in vegetation types. In the western states, particularly southern California, precipitation and thus vegetation density increase and forests expand under all but the hottest scenarios. In the eastern US, particularly the Southeast, forests expand under the more moderate scenarios but decline under more severe climate scenarios, with catastrophic fires potentially causing rapid vegetation conversions from forest to savanna. Both models show that there is a potential for either positive or negative feedbacks to the atmosphere depending on the level of warming in the climate change scenarios. Received 12 May 2000; accepted 22 November 2000.     

Fertility Changes in Rural Moroccan Berbers during the 20th Century

Morocco’s fertility pattern evolved in the 20th century from a traditional model close to ‘natural fertility’ to a modern pattern incorporating contraception. The very high fertility rate of nearly 7 offspring per woman observed in the 1960s was still at a level of 5.5 offspring per woman in the early 1980s. The total fertility rate subsequently declined to 2.5 by 2003. This decline was apparently, principally, the result of two factors in the urban context: the relative increase in women’s age at marriage and the use of contraception to regulate and to close reproduction. This research studied a group of Berber agriculturists in the region of Marrakech to better understand the extension and modalities of fertility changes in a rural environment. Though delayed, the changes observed in rural Berbers paralleled the general trends seen at the national level. As in the urban environment, the changes affecting reproductive patterns resulted from an increase in the age at marriage of women and the introduction of contraception. However, these changes were apparently minor adaptations to the traditional pattern, in that the progressive increase in mean age at marriage was obtained by the decrease in the frequency of pre-nubile unions (<15 years old) and not from the upward shift of the modal age. On the other hand, contraception apparently was employed to stop childbearing after the expected family size was already attained.     

Molecular Evolution of Zika Virus during Its Emergence in the 20th Century

Zika virus (ZIKV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus first isolated in Uganda in 1947. Although entomological and virologic surveillance have reported ZIKV enzootic activity in diverse countries of Africa and Asia, few human cases were reported until 2007, when a Zika fever epidemic took place in Micronesia. In the context of West Africa, the WHO Collaborating Centre for Arboviruses and Hemorrhagic Fever at Institut Pasteur of Dakar (http://www.pasteur.fr/recherche/banques/CRORA/) reports the periodic circulation of ZIKV since 1968. Despite several reports on ZIKV, the genetic relationships among viral strains from West Africa remain poorly understood. To evaluate the viral spread and its molecular epidemiology, we investigated 37 ZIKV isolates collected from 1968 to 2002 in six localities in Senegal and Côte d''Ivoire. In addition, we included strains from six other countries. Our results suggested that these two countries in West Africa experienced at least two independent introductions of ZIKV during the 20^th century, and that apparently these viral lineages were not restricted by mosquito vector species. Moreover, we present evidence that ZIKV has possibly undergone recombination in nature and that a loss of the N154 glycosylation site in the envelope protein was a possible adaptive response to the Aedes dalzieli vector.     

Diagnosis of Tuberculosis by Using a Nucleic Acid Amplification Test in an Urban Population with High HIV Prevalence in the United States

Background

Use of nucleic acid amplification tests (NAAT) for the diagnosis of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (TB) has been recommended on respiratory specimens submitted for acid-fast bacilli (AFB) testing. It also helps distinguish between TB and non-tuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) species in a setting where NTM rates are relatively high. The purposes of this study are to describe the trend and characteristics of all AFB smear-positive respiratory samples that underwent amplified Mycobacterium tuberculosis direct (MTD) testing, a type of NAAT, and to evaluate the clinical utility and necessity of the test for diagnosis of TB in a population with high-HIV prevalence.

Methods

Prospective diagnostic testing and retrospective data analyses were conducted on all AFB smear-positive respiratory samples that underwent MTD testing from 2001 to 2011 at Grady Memorial Hospital (GMH), Atlanta, USA. The test performance was compared to culture.

Results

A total of 2,240 AFB smear-positive specimens from 1,412 patients were tested and analyzed in the study. The proportion of specimens that were culture-positive for TB was 28.5%. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the MTD were 99.0%, 98.0%, 95.3% and 99.6%, respectively. A downward trend was observed in the yearly numbers as well as the proportions of MTD-positive specimens during the study period (p<0.01). There were 2,027 (90.5%) specimens from patients with known HIV status, of which 70.6% was HIV positive and the majority of them (81.8%) had CD4 counts of less than 200 cells/µL. HIV-positives were more likely to have NTM compared to HIV negatives (67.7% vs. 35.4%, p<0.01).

Conclusion

Despite the decrease in the incidence of TB, NAAT continues to be an accurate and important diagnostic test in a population with high HIV prevalence, and it differentiates TB and NTM organisms.     

Projected Effects of Climate Change on Patterns of Vertebrate and Tree Species Richness in the Conterminous United States

General circulation models (GCM) predict that increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) and other greenhouse gases will lead to dramatic changes in climate. It is known that the spatial variability of species richness over continental spatial scales is strongly correlated with contemporary climate. Assuming that this relationship between species richness and climate persists under conditions of increased CO₂, what changes could we expect to occur in terms of species richness? To address this question, I used observed relationships between contemporary richness and climate, coupled with climate projections from five GCM, to project these future changes. These models predict that the richness of vertebrate ectotherms will increase over most of the conterminous United States. Mammal and bird richness are predicted to decrease in much of the southern US and to increase in cool, mountainous areas. Woody plant richness is likely to increase throughout the North and West and to decrease in the southwestern deserts. These projections represent changes that are likely to occur over long time scales (millennia); short-term changes are expected to be mainly negative.     

Household Socioeconomic and Demographic Correlates of Cryptosporidium Seropositivity in the United States

Background Cryptosporidium are parasitic protozoa that infect humans, domestic animals, and wildlife globally. In the United States, cryptosporidiosis occurs in an estimated 750,000 persons annually, and is primarily caused by either of the Cryptosporidium parvum genotypes 1 and 2, exposure to which occurs through ingestion of food or water contaminated with oocytes shed from infected hosts. Although most cryptosporidiosis cases are caused by genotype 1 and are of human origin, the zoonotic sources of genotype 2, such as livestock, are increasingly recognized as important for understanding human disease patterns. Social inequality could mediate patterns of human exposure and infection by placing individuals in environments where food or water contamination and livestock contact is high or through reducing the availability of educational and sanitary resources required to avoid exposure.Conclusions/SignificanceThese results refute assertions that cryptosporidiosis in the United States is independent of social marginalization and poverty, and carry implications for targeted public health interventions for Cryptosporidium infection in resource-poor groups. Future longitudinal and multilevel studies are necessary to elucidate the complex interactions between ecological factors, social inequality, and Cryptosporidium dynamics.     

Modeling and Mapping the Probability of Occurrence of Invasive Wild Pigs across the Contiguous United States

Wild pigs (Sus scrofa), also known as wild swine, feral pigs, or feral hogs, are one of the most widespread and successful invasive species around the world. Wild pigs have been linked to extensive and costly agricultural damage and present a serious threat to plant and animal communities due to their rooting behavior and omnivorous diet. We modeled the current distribution of wild pigs in the United States to better understand the physiological and ecological factors that may determine their invasive potential and to guide future study and eradication efforts. Using national-scale wild pig occurrence data reported between 1982 and 2012 by wildlife management professionals, we estimated the probability of wild pig occurrence across the United States using a logistic discrimination function and environmental covariates hypothesized to influence the distribution of the species. Our results suggest the distribution of wild pigs in the U.S. was most strongly limited by cold temperatures and availability of water, and that they were most likely to occur where potential home ranges had higher habitat heterogeneity, providing access to multiple key resources including water, forage, and cover. High probability of occurrence was also associated with frequent high temperatures, up to a high threshold. However, this pattern is driven by pigs’ historic distribution in warm climates of the southern U.S. Further study of pigs’ ability to persist in cold northern climates is needed to better understand whether low temperatures actually limit their distribution. Our model highlights areas at risk of invasion as those with habitat conditions similar to those found in pigs’ current range that are also near current populations. This study provides a macro-scale approach to generalist species distribution modeling that is applicable to other generalist and invasive species.     

Physical attractiveness and reproductive success in humans: evidence from the late 20th century United States

Physical attractiveness has been associated with mating behavior, but its role in reproductive success of contemporary humans has received surprisingly little attention. In the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study (1244 women, 997 men born between 1937 and 1940), we examined whether attractiveness assessed from photographs taken at age 18 years predicted the number of biological children at age 53–56 years. In women, attractiveness predicted higher reproductive success in a nonlinear fashion, so that attractive (second highest quartile) women had 16% and very attractive (highest quartile) women 6% more children than their less attractive counterparts. In men, there was a threshold effect so that men in the lowest attractiveness quartile had 13% fewer children than others who did not differ from each other in the average number of children. These associations were partly but not completely accounted for by attractive participants' increased marriage probability. A linear regression analysis indicated relatively weak directional selection gradient for attractiveness (β=0.06 in women, β=0.07 in men). These findings indicate that physical attractiveness may be associated with reproductive success in humans living in industrialized settings.     

Population Structure of Peronospora effusa in the Southwestern United States

Peronospora effusa is an obligate pathogen that causes downy mildew on spinach and is considered the most economically important disease of spinach. The objective of the current research was to assess genetic diversity of known historical races and isolates collected in 2014 from production fields in Yuma, Arizona and Salinas Valley, California. Candidate neutral single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were identified by comparing sequence data from reference isolates of known races of the pathogen collected in 2009 and 2010. Genotypes were assessed using targeted sequencing on genomic DNA extracted directly from infected plant tissue. Genotyping 26 historical and 167 contemporary samples at 46 SNP loci revealed 82 unique multi-locus genotypes. The unique genotypes clustered into five groups and the majority of isolates collected in 2014 were genetically closely related, regardless of source location. The historical samples, representing several races, showed greater genetic differentiation. Overall, the SNP data indicate much of the genotypic variation found within fields was produced during asexual development, whereas overall genetic diversity may be influenced by sexual recombination on broader geographical and temporal scales.     

Quantifying and Valuing Potential Climate Change Impacts on Coral Reefs in the United States: Comparison of Two Scenarios

The biological and economic values of coral reefs are highly vulnerable to increasing atmospheric and ocean carbon dioxide concentrations. We applied the COMBO simulation model (COral Mortality and Bleaching Output) to three major U.S. locations for shallow water reefs: South Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii. We compared estimates of future coral cover from 2000 to 2100 for a “business as usual” (BAU) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario with a GHG mitigation policy scenario involving full international participation in reducing GHG emissions. We also calculated the economic value of changes in coral cover using a benefit transfer approach based on published studies of consumers'' recreational values for snorkeling and diving on coral reefs as well as existence values for coral reefs. Our results suggest that a reduced emissions scenario would provide a large benefit to shallow water reefs in Hawaii by delaying or avoiding potential future bleaching events. For Hawaii, reducing emissions is projected to result in an estimated “avoided loss” from 2000 to 2100 of approximately $10.6 billion in recreational use values compared to a BAU scenario. However, reducing emissions is projected to provide only a minor economic benefit in Puerto Rico and South Florida, where sea-surface temperatures are already close to bleaching thresholds and coral cover is projected to drop well below 5% cover under both scenarios by 2050, and below 1% cover under both scenarios by 2100.     

The Relative Impacts of Climate and Land-Use Change on Conterminous United States Bird Species from 2001 to 2075

Species distribution models often use climate data to assess contemporary and/or future ranges for animal or plant species. Land use and land cover (LULC) data are important predictor variables for determining species range, yet are rarely used when modeling future distributions. In this study, maximum entropy modeling was used to construct species distribution maps for 50 North American bird species to determine relative contributions of climate and LULC for contemporary (2001) and future (2075) time periods. Species presence data were used as a dependent variable, while climate, LULC, and topographic data were used as predictor variables. Results varied by species, but in general, measures of model fit for 2001 indicated significantly poorer fit when either climate or LULC data were excluded from model simulations. Climate covariates provided a higher contribution to 2001 model results than did LULC variables, although both categories of variables strongly contributed. The area deemed to be “suitable” for 2001 species presence was strongly affected by the choice of model covariates, with significantly larger ranges predicted when LULC was excluded as a covariate. Changes in species ranges for 2075 indicate much larger overall range changes due to projected climate change than due to projected LULC change. However, the choice of study area impacted results for both current and projected model applications, with truncation of actual species ranges resulting in lower model fit scores and increased difficulty in interpreting covariate impacts on species range. Results indicate species-specific response to climate and LULC variables; however, both climate and LULC variables clearly are important for modeling both contemporary and potential future species ranges.     

Effects of Climate Change on Plant Population Growth Rate and Community Composition Change

The impacts of climate change on forest community composition are still not well known. Although directional trends in climate change and community composition change were reported in recent years, further quantitative analyses are urgently needed. Previous studies focused on measuring population growth rates in a single time period, neglecting the development of the populations. Here we aimed to compose a method for calculating the community composition change, and to testify the impacts of climate change on community composition change within a relatively short period (several decades) based on long-term monitoring data from two plots—Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve, China (DBR) and Barro Colorado Island, Panama (BCI)—that are located in tropical and subtropical regions. We proposed a relatively more concise index, Slnλ, which refers to an overall population growth rate based on the dominant species in a community. The results indicated that the population growth rate of a majority of populations has decreased over the past few decades. This decrease was mainly caused by population development. The increasing temperature had a positive effect on population growth rates and community change rates. Our results promote understanding and explaining variations in population growth rates and community composition rates, and are helpful to predict population dynamics and population responses to climate change.     

Population Dynamics of Evolutionary Change: Demographic Parameters as Indicators of Fitness

I evaluated demographic parameters as indicators of fitness by calculating the net reproductive rate (R₀), exponential rate of change (r), lifetime reproductive success (LRS), and Malthusian parameter (m) for nine genotypes and four phenotypes (two alleles at each of two independent loci) of an age-structured population. The given starting conditions included age-specific survival rates of males and females and age-specific fecundity of females for each genotype (to simplify the problem I presumed no differences in survivorship or fecundity of genotypes with the same phenotype) and the same age structure for each genotype. The prevailing genotype had the greatestm, but it did not have the greatestr,R₀, or LRS, or even the greatest survivorship of either juveniles or adults, or the greatest fecundity. This result indicates thatmis the only correct measure of fitness (i.e., as a predictor of which genotype should prevail from among a group of genotypes) and that comparisons ofr,R₀, LRS, juvenile or adult survival rates, or fecundity may be misleading indicators of which genotype should prevail (i.e., be most “fit”) over time (i.e., be selected for).     

20th Century Carbon Budget of Forest Soils in the Alps

Dendrochronological studies and forest inventory surveys have reported increased growth and biospheric carbon (C) sequestration for European forests in the recent past. The potential of concomitant changes in forest soil C stocks are not accounted for in the IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories. We developed a model-based approach to address this problem and assess the role of soils in forest C balance in the European Alps. The decomposition model FORCLIM-D was driven by long-term (that is, 1900–1985 AD) litter input scenarios constructed from forest inventory data, region-specific dendrochronological basal area indices, and time series of anthropogenic litter removal. The effect of spatial climate variability on organic matter decomposition across the case study region (Switzerland) was explicitly accounted for by constant long-term annual means of actual evapotranspiration and temperature. Uncertainties in forest development, litter removal, fine root litter input, and dynamics of forest soil C were studied by an explorative factorial sensitivity analysis. We found that forest soils contribute substantially to the biospheric C sequestration for Switzerland: Our “best estimate” yielded an increase of 0.35 Mt C/y or 0.33 t C/(ha y) in forest soils for 1985, that is, 27% of the C sequestered by forest trees (BUWAL 1994). Uncertainties regarding C accumulation in forest soils were substantial (0.11–0.58 Mt C/y) but could be reduced by estimating forest soil C stocks in the future. Whereas soils can be important for the C balance in naturally regrowing forests, their C sequestration is negligible (less than 5%) relative to anthropogenic CO₂ emissions in Western Europe at present. Received 25 August 1998; accepted 17 March 1999.