Functional traits underlying performance variations in the overwintering of the cosmopolitan invasive plant water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes) under climate warming and water drawdown

Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicate that temperature rise is still the general trend of the global climate in the 21st century. Invasive species may benefit from the increase in temperature, as climate can be viewed as a resource, and the increase in the available resources favors the invasibility of invasive species. This study aimed to assess the overwintering growth of the cosmopolitan invasive plant water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes) at its northern boundary. Using E. crassipes as a model plant, a cross‐year mesocosm experiment was conducted to determine 17 plant functional traits, including growth, morphological, root topological, photosynthetic, and stoichiometric traits, under climate warming (ambient, temperature rises of 1.5°C and 3.0°C), and water drawdown or water withdrawal (water depths of 1, 10, and 20 cm) treatments. The overwintering growth of E. crassipes was facilitated by climate warming and proper water drawdown, and climate warming played a leading role. A temperature rises of 3.0°C and a water depth of 10 cm were the most suitable conditions for the overwintering and rooting behavior of the plant. Controlling the temperature to within 1.5°C, an ambitious goal for China, still facilitated the overwintering of E. crassipes. With climate warming, the plant can overwinter successfully, which possibly assists it in producing and spreading new ramets in the vernal flood season. The new rooting behavior induced by ambient low temperature may be viewed as a unique growth adaptation strategy for a niche change, as it helps these plants invade empty niches left by dead free‐floating plants on the water surface following winter freezes. With continued global warming, the distribution of the plant may expand northward, and eradication of the plant during the winter water drawdown period may be a more effective strategy.     

Diatom Cell Size,Coloniality and Motility: Trade-Offs between Temperature,Salinity and Nutrient Supply with Climate Change

Reduction in body size has been proposed as a universal response of organisms, both to warming and to decreased salinity. However, it is still controversial if size reduction is caused by temperature or salinity on their own, or if other factors interfere as well. We used natural benthic diatom communities to explore how “body size” (cells and colonies) and motility change along temperature (2–26°C) and salinity (0.5–7.8) gradients in the brackish Baltic Sea. Fourth-corner analysis confirmed that small cell and colony sizes were associated with high temperature in summer. Average community cell volume decreased linearly with 2.2% per °C. However, cells were larger with artificial warming when nutrient concentrations were high in the cold season. Average community cell volume increased by 5.2% per °C of artificial warming from 0 to 8.5°C and simultaneously there was a selection for motility, which probably helped to optimize growth rates by trade-offs between nutrient supply and irradiation. Along the Baltic Sea salinity gradient cell size decreased with decreasing salinity, apparently mediated by nutrient stoichiometry. Altogether, our results suggest that climate change in this century may polarize seasonality by creating two new niches, with elevated temperature at high nutrient concentrations in the cold season (increasing cell size) and elevated temperature at low nutrient concentrations in the warm season (decreasing cell size). Higher temperature in summer and lower salinity by increased land-runoff are expected to decrease the average cell size of primary producers, which is likely to affect the transfer of energy to higher trophic levels.     

Topographic and vegetation drivers of thermal heterogeneity along the boreal–grassland transition zone in western Canada: Implications for climate change refugia

Climate change refugia are areas that are relatively buffered from contemporary climate change and may be important safe havens for wildlife and plants under anthropogenic climate change. Topographic variation is an important driver of thermal heterogeneity, but it is limited in relatively flat landscapes, such as the boreal plain and prairie regions of western Canada. Topographic variation within this region is mostly restricted to river valleys and hill systems, and their effects on local climates are not well documented. We sought to quantify thermal heterogeneity as a function of topography and vegetation cover within major valleys and hill systems across the boreal–grassland transition zone.Using iButton data loggers, we monitored local temperature at four hills and 12 river valley systems that comprised a wide range of habitats and ecosystems in Alberta, Canada (N = 240), between 2014 and 2020. We then modeled monthly temperature by season as a function of topography and different vegetation cover types using general linear mixed effect models.Summer maximum temperatures (T _max) varied nearly 6°C across the elevation gradient sampled. Local summer mean (T _mean) and maximum (T _max) temperatures on steep, north‐facing slopes (i.e., low levels of potential solar radiation) were up to 0.70°C and 2.90°C cooler than highly exposed areas, respectively. T _max in incised valleys was between 0.26 and 0.28°C cooler than other landforms, whereas areas with greater terrain roughness experienced maximum temperatures that were up to 1.62°C cooler. We also found that forest cover buffered temperatures locally, with coniferous and mixedwood forests decreasing summer T _mean from 0.23 to 0.72°C and increasing winter T _min by up to 2°C, relative to non‐forested areas.Spatial predictions of temperatures from iButton data loggers were similar to a gridded climate product (ClimateNA), but the difference between them increased with potential solar radiation, vegetation cover, and terrain roughness.Species that can track their climate niche may be able to compensate for regional climate warming through local migrations to cooler microsites. Topographic and vegetation characteristics that are related to cooler local climates should be considered in the evaluation of future climate change impacts and to identify potential refugia from climate change.     

Temperature,but not pH,compromises sea urchin fertilization and early development under near-future climate change scenarios

Global warming is causing ocean warming and acidification. The distribution of Heliocidaris erythrogramma coincides with the eastern Australia climate change hot spot, where disproportionate warming makes marine biota particularly vulnerable to climate change. In keeping with near-future climate change scenarios, we determined the interactive effects of warming and acidification on fertilization and development of this echinoid. Experimental treatments (20–26°C, pH 7.6–8.2) were tested in all combinations for the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, with 20°C/pH 8.2 being ambient. Percentage of fertilization was high (>89%) across all treatments. There was no difference in percentage of normal development in any pH treatment. In elevated temperature conditions, +4°C reduced cleavage by 40 per cent and +6°C by a further 20 per cent. Normal gastrulation fell below 4 per cent at +6°C. At 26°C, development was impaired. As the first study of interactive effects of temperature and pH on sea urchin development, we confirm the thermotolerance and pH resilience of fertilization and embryogenesis within predicted climate change scenarios, with negative effects at upper limits of ocean warming. Our findings place single stressor studies in context and emphasize the need for experiments that address ocean warming and acidification concurrently. Although ocean acidification research has focused on impaired calcification, embryos may not reach the skeletogenic stage in a warm ocean.     

Decadal Changes in the World's Coastal Latitudinal Temperature Gradients

Most of the world''s living marine resources inhabit coastal environments, where average thermal conditions change predictably with latitude. These coastal latitudinal temperature gradients (CLTG) coincide with important ecological clines,e.g., in marine species diversity or adaptive genetic variations, but how tightly thermal and ecological gradients are linked remains unclear. A first step is to consistently characterize the world''s CLTGs. We extracted coastal cells from a global 1°×1° dataset of weekly sea surface temperatures (SST, 1982–2012) to quantify spatial and temporal variability of the world''s 11 major CLTGs. Gradient strength, i.e., the slope of the linear mean-SST/latitude relationship, varied 3-fold between the steepest (North-American Atlantic and Asian Pacific gradients: −0.91°C and −0.68°C lat⁻¹, respectively) and weakest CLTGs (African Indian Ocean and the South- and North-American Pacific gradients: −0.28, −0.29, −0.32°C lat⁻¹, respectively). Analyzing CLTG strength by year revealed that seven gradients have weakened by 3–10% over the past three decades due to increased warming at high compared to low latitudes. Almost the entire South-American Pacific gradient (6–47°S), however, has considerably cooled over the study period (−0.3 to −1.7°C, 31 years), and the substantial weakening of the North-American Atlantic gradient (−10%) was due to warming at high latitudes (42–60°N, +0.8 to +1.6°C,31 years) and significant mid-latitude cooling (Florida to Cape Hatteras 26–35°N, −0.5 to −2.2°C, 31 years). Average SST trends rarely resulted from uniform shifts throughout the year; instead individual seasonal warming or cooling patterns elicited the observed changes in annual means. This is consistent with our finding of increased seasonality (i.e., summer-winter SST amplitude) in three quarters of all coastal cells (331 of 433). Our study highlights the regionally variable footprint of global climate change, while emphasizing ecological implications of changing CLTGs, which are likely driving observed spatial and temporal clines in coastal marine life.     

Climate-Induced Elevational Range Shifts and Increase in Plant Species Richness in a Himalayan Biodiversity Epicentre

Global average temperature increase during the last century has induced species geographic range shifts and extinctions. Montane floras, in particular, are highly sensitive to climate change and mountains serve as suitable observation sites for tracing climate-induced biological response. The Himalaya constitute an important global biodiversity hotspot, yet studies on species’ response to climate change from this region are lacking. Here we use historical (1849–50) and the recent (2007–2010) data on temperature and endemic species’ elevational ranges to perform a correlative study in the two alpine valleys of Sikkim. We show that the ongoing warming in the alpine Sikkim Himalaya has transformed the plant assemblages. This study lends support to the hypothesis that changing climate is causing species distribution changes. We provide first evidence of warmer winters in the region compared to the last two centuries, with mean temperatures of the warmest and the coldest months may have increased by 0.76±0.25°C and 3.65±2°C, respectively. Warming-driven geographical range shifts were recorded in 87% of 124 endemic plant species studied in the region; upper range extensions of species have resulted in increased species richness in the upper alpine zone, compared to the 19^th century. We recorded a shift of 23–998 m in species’ upper elevation limit and a mean upward displacement rate of 27.53±22.04 m/decade in the present study. We infer that the present-day plant assemblages and community structure in the Himalaya is substantially different from the last century and is, therefore, in a state of flux under the impact of warming. The continued trend of warming is likely to result in ongoing elevational range contractions and eventually, species extinctions, particularly at mountaintops.     

Factors influencing range contraction of a rodent herbivore in a steppe grassland over the past decades

1. Climate warming and human disturbance are known to be key drivers in causing range contraction of many species, but quantitative assessment on their distinctive and interactive effects on local disappearance is still rare.
2. In this study, we examined the association of climate warming and human disturbance stressors with local disappearance probability of Brandt''s voles (Lasiopodomys brandtii) in a steppe grassland in northern China.
3. We used logistic generalized additive models to quantify the relationship between local disappearance probability of Brandt''s voles and environmental variables. The year following the last observation year was used to estimate the disappearance threshold of Brandt''s voles. We projected the distribution change of Brandt''s voles under future climate warming scenarios.
4. We found climate warming attributed to local disappearance and range contraction for southern populations of Brandt''s voles from 1971 to 2020. Human stressors and high vegetation coverage increased the probability of local disappearance of voles in years of abundant precipitation. The southern boundary retreated northward at a speed of 99.0 km per decade with the temperature rise of 0.36°C. The disappearance threshold of maximum air temperature of Brandt''s voles in the warmest month (27.50 ± 1.61°C) was similar to the lower critical temperature of its thermal neutral zone.
5. Our study suggests that the rapid climate change over the past decades contributed to the range contraction of its southern boundary of this keystone species in the steppe grassland of China. It is necessary to take actions to preserve the isolated populations of Brandt''s voles from the effects of accelerated climate change and human disturbance.

     

Potential Climate Change Effects on the Habitat of Antarctic Krill in the Weddell Quadrant of the Southern Ocean

Antarctic krill is a cold water species, an increasingly important fishery resource and a major prey item for many fish, birds and mammals in the Southern Ocean. The fishery and the summer foraging sites of many of these predators are concentrated between 0° and 90°W. Parts of this quadrant have experienced recent localised sea surface warming of up to 0.2°C per decade, and projections suggest that further widespread warming of 0.27° to 1.08°C will occur by the late 21^st century. We assessed the potential influence of this projected warming on Antarctic krill habitat with a statistical model that links growth to temperature and chlorophyll concentration. The results divide the quadrant into two zones: a band around the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in which habitat quality is particularly vulnerable to warming, and a southern area which is relatively insensitive. Our analysis suggests that the direct effects of warming could reduce the area of growth habitat by up to 20%. The reduction in growth habitat within the range of predators, such as Antarctic fur seals, that forage from breeding sites on South Georgia could be up to 55%, and the habitat’s ability to support Antarctic krill biomass production within this range could be reduced by up to 68%. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the effects of a 50% change in summer chlorophyll concentration could be more significant than the direct effects of warming. A reduction in primary production could lead to further habitat degradation but, even if chlorophyll increased by 50%, projected warming would still cause some degradation of the habitat accessible to predators. While there is considerable uncertainty in these projections, they suggest that future climate change could have a significant negative effect on Antarctic krill growth habitat and, consequently, on Southern Ocean biodiversity and ecosystem services.     

Artificial asymmetric warming reduces nectar yield in a Tibetan alpine species of Asteraceae

Background and Aims Asymmetric warming is one of the distinguishing features of global climate change, in which winter and night-time temperatures are predicted to increase more than summer and diurnal temperatures. Winter warming weakens vernalization and hence decreases the potential to flower for some perennial herbs, and night warming can reduce carbohydrate concentrations in storage organs. This study therefore hypothesized that asymmetric warming should act to reduce flower number and nectar production per flower in a perennial herb, Saussurea nigrescens, a key nectar plant for pollinators in Tibetan alpine meadows.Methods A long-term (6 years) warming experiment was conducted using open-top chambers placed in a natural meadow and manipulated to achieve asymmetric increases in temperature, as follows: a mean annual increase of 0·7 and 2·7 °C during the growing and non-growing seasons, respectively, combined with an increase of 1·6 and 2·8 °C in the daytime and night-time, respectively, from June to August. Measurements were taken of nectar volume and concentration (sucrose content), and also of leaf non-structural carbohydrate content and plant morphology.Key Results Six years of experimental warming resulted in reductions in nectar volume per floret (64·7 % of control), floret number per capitulum (8·7 %) and capitulum number per plant (32·5 %), whereas nectar concentration remained unchanged. Depletion of leaf non-structural carbohydrates was significantly higher in the warmed than in the ambient condition. Overall plant density was also reduced by warming, which, when combined with reductions in flower development and nectar volumes, led to a reduction of ∼90 % in nectar production per unit area.Conclusions The negative effect of asymmetric warming on nectar yields in S. nigrescens may be explained by a concomitant depletion of leaf non-structural carbohydrates. The results thus highlight a novel aspect of how climate change might affect plant–pollinator interactions and plant reproduction via induction of allocation shifts for plants growing in communities subject to asymmetric warming.     

Potential Impacts of Climate Warming on Water Supply Reliability in the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins,California

We present an integrated hydrology/water operations simulation model of the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins, California, using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) platform. The model represents hydrology as well as water operations, which together influence water supplied for agricultural, urban, and environmental uses. The model is developed for impacts assessment using scenarios for climate change and other drivers of water system behavior. In this paper, we describe the model structure, its representation of historical streamflow, agricultural and urban water demands, and water operations. We describe projected impacts of climate change on hydrology and water supply to the major irrigation districts in the area, using uniform 2°C, 4°C, and 6°C increases applied to climate inputs from the calibration period. Consistent with other studies, we find that the timing of hydrology shifts earlier in the water year in response to temperature warming (5–21 days). The integrated agricultural model responds with increased water demands 2°C (1.4–2.0%), 4°C (2.8–3.9%), and 6°C (4.2–5.8%). In this sensitivity analysis, the combination of altered hydrology and increased demands results in decreased reliability of surface water supplied for agricultural purposes, with modeled quantity-based reliability metrics decreasing from a range of 0.84–0.90 under historical conditions to 0.75–0.79 under 6°C warming scenario.     

Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Global Warming in the Tibetan Plateau during the Last 50 Years Based on a Generalised Temperature Zone - Elevation Model

Temperature is one of the primary factors influencing the climate and ecosystem, and examining its change and fluctuation could elucidate the formation of novel climate patterns and trends. In this study, we constructed a generalised temperature zone elevation model (GTEM) to assess the trends of climate change and temporal-spatial differences in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) using the annual and monthly mean temperatures from 1961–2010 at 144 meteorological stations in and near the TP. The results showed the following: (1) The TP has undergone robust warming over the study period, and the warming rate was 0.318°C/decade. The warming has accelerated during recent decades, especially in the last 20 years, and the warming has been most significant in the winter months, followed by the spring, autumn and summer seasons. (2) Spatially, the zones that became significantly smaller were the temperature zones of −6°C and −4°C, and these have decreased 499.44 and 454.26 thousand sq km from 1961 to 2010 at average rates of 25.1% and 11.7%, respectively, over every 5-year interval. These quickly shrinking zones were located in the northwestern and central TP. (3) The elevation dependency of climate warming existed in the TP during 1961–2010, but this tendency has gradually been weakening due to more rapid warming at lower elevations than in the middle and upper elevations of the TP during 1991–2010. The higher regions and some low altitude valleys of the TP were the most significantly warming regions under the same categorizing criteria. Experimental evidence shows that the GTEM is an effective method to analyse climate changes in high altitude mountainous regions.     

Climate Warming May Facilitate Invasion of the Exotic Shrub Lantana camara

Plant species show different responses to the elevated temperatures that are resulting from global climate change, depending on their ecological and physiological characteristics. The highly invasive shrub Lantana camara occurs between the latitudes of 35°N and 35°S. According to current and future climate scenarios predicted by the CLIMEX model, climatically suitable areas for L. camara are projected to contract globally, despite expansions in some areas. The objective of this study was to test those predictions, using a pot experiment in which branch cuttings were grown at three different temperatures (22°C, 26°C and 30°C). We hypothesized that warming would facilitate the invasiveness of L. camara. In response to rising temperatures, the total biomass of L. camara did increase. Plants allocated more biomass to stems and enlarged their leaves more at 26°C and 30°C, which promoted light capture and assimilation. They did not appear to be stressed by higher temperatures, in fact photosynthesis and assimilation were enhanced. Using lettuce (Lactuca sativa) as a receptor plant in a bioassay experiment, we also tested the phytotoxicity of L. camara leachate at different temperatures. All aqueous extracts from fresh leaves significantly inhibited the germination and seedling growth of lettuce, and the allelopathic effects became stronger with increasing temperature. Our results provide key evidence that elevated temperature led to significant increases in growth along with physiological and allelopathic effects, which together indicate that global warming facilitates the invasion of L. camara.     

Thermal niches of specialized gut symbionts: the case of social bees

Responses to climate change are particularly complicated in species that engage in symbioses, as the niche of one partner may be modified by that of the other. We explored thermal traits in gut symbionts of honeybees and bumblebees, which are vulnerable to rising temperatures. In vitro assays of symbiont strains isolated from 16 host species revealed variation in thermal niches. Strains from bumblebees tended to be less heat-tolerant than those from honeybees, possibly due to bumblebees maintaining cooler nests or inhabiting cooler climates. Overall, however, bee symbionts grew at temperatures up to 44°C and withstood temperatures up to 52°C, at or above the upper thermal limits of their hosts. While heat-tolerant, most strains of the symbiont Snodgrassella grew relatively slowly below 35°C, perhaps because of adaptation to the elevated body temperatures that bees maintain through thermoregulation. In a gnotobiotic bumblebee experiment, Snodgrassella was unable to consistently colonize bees reared at 29°C under conditions that limit thermoregulation. Thus, host thermoregulatory behaviour appears important in creating a warm microenvironment for symbiont establishment. Bee–microbiome–temperature interactions could affect host health and pollination services, and inform research on the thermal biology of other specialized gut symbionts.     

Potential Impacts of Future Warming and Land Use Changes on Intra-Urban Heat Exposure in Houston,Texas

Extreme heat events in the United States are projected to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. We investigated the individual and combined effects of land use and warming on the spatial and temporal distribution of daily minimum temperature (T_min) and daily maximum heat index (HI_max) during summer in Houston, Texas. Present-day (2010) and near-future (2040) parcel-level land use scenarios were embedded within 1-km resolution land surface model (LSM) simulations. For each land use scenario, LSM simulations were conducted for climatic scenarios representative of both the present-day and near-future periods. LSM simulations assuming present-day climate but 2040 land use patterns led to spatially heterogeneous temperature changes characterized by warmer conditions over most areas, with summer average increases of up to 1.5°C (T_min) and 7.3°C (HI_max) in some newly developed suburban areas compared to simulations using 2010 land use patterns. LSM simulations assuming present-day land use but a 1°C temperature increase above the urban canopy (consistent with warming projections for 2040) yielded more spatially homogeneous metropolitan-wide average increases of about 1°C (T_min) and 2.5°C (HI_max), respectively. LSM simulations assuming both land use and warming for 2040 led to summer average increases of up to 2.5°C (T_min) and 8.3°C (HI_max), with the largest increases in areas projected to be converted to residential, industrial and mixed-use types. Our results suggest that urbanization and climate change may significantly increase the average number of summer days that exceed current threshold temperatures for initiating a heat advisory for metropolitan Houston, potentially increasing population exposure to extreme heat.     

Winter Climate Limits Subantarctic Low Forest Growth and Establishment

Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52°S, 169°E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  = −5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6°C since the 1940''s has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20^th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally.     

Heading for New Shores: Projecting Marine Distribution Ranges of Selected Larger Foraminifera

The distribution of modern symbiont-bearing larger foraminifera is confined to tropical and subtropical shallow water marine habitats and a narrow range of environmental variables (e.g. temperature). Most of today''s taxa are restricted to tropical and subtropical regions (between 30°N and 30°S) and their minimum temperature limits are governed by the 14 to 20°C isotherms. However, during times of extensive global warming (e.g., the Eocene and Miocene), larger foraminifera have been found as far north as 50°N (North America and Central Europe) as well as towards 47°S in New Zealand. During the last century, sea surface temperatures have been rising significantly. This trend is expected to continue and climate change scenarios for 2050 suggest a further increase by 1 to 3°C. We applied Species Distribution Models to assess potential distribution range changes of three taxa of larger foraminifera under current and future climate. The studied foraminifera include Archaias angulatus, Calcarina spp., and Amphistegina spp., and represent taxa with regional, superregional and global distribution patterns. Under present environmental conditions, Amphistegina spp. shows the largest potential distribution, apparently due to its temperature tolerance. Both Archaias angulatus and Calcarina spp. display potential distributions that cover currently uninhabited regions. Under climate conditions expected for the year 2050, all taxa should display latitudinal range expansions between 1 to 2.5 degrees both north- and southward. The modeled range projections suggest that some larger foraminifera may colonize biogeographic regions that so far seemed unsuitable. Archaias angulatus and Calcarina spp. also show an increase in habitat suitability within their native occurrence ranges, suggesting that their tolerance for maximum temperatures has yet not been fully exploited and that they benefit from ocean warming. Our findings suggest an increased role of larger foraminifera as carbonate producers and reef framework builders in future oceans.     

Downstream Warming and Headwater Acidity May Diminish Coldwater Habitat in Southern Appalachian Mountain Streams

Stream-dwelling species in the U.S. southern Appalachian Mountains region are particularly vulnerable to climate change and acidification. The objectives of this study were to quantify the spatial extent of contemporary suitable habitat for acid- and thermally sensitive aquatic species and to forecast future habitat loss resulting from expected temperature increases on national forest lands in the southern Appalachian Mountain region. The goal of this study was to help watershed managers identify and assess stream reaches that are potentially vulnerable to warming, acidification, or both. To our knowledge, these results represent the first regional assessment of aquatic habitat suitability with respect to the combined effects of stream water temperature and acid-base status in the United States. Statistical models were developed to predict July mean daily maximum water temperatures and air-water temperature relations to determine potential changes in future stream water temperatures. The length of stream considered suitable habitat for acid- and thermally sensitive species, based on temperature and acid neutralizing capacity thresholds of 20°C and 50 μeq/L, was variable throughout the national forests considered. Stream length displaying temperature above 20°C was generally more than five times greater than the length predicted to have acid neutralizing capacity below 50 μeq/L. It was uncommon for these two stressors to occur within the same stream segment. Results suggested that species’ distributional shifts to colder, higher elevation habitats under a warming climate can be constrained by acidification of headwater streams. The approach used in this study can be applied to evaluate climate change impacts to stream water resources in other regions.     

Thermal performance of the Chagas disease vector,Triatoma infestans,under thermal variability

Vector-borne diseases (VBD) are particularly susceptible to climate change because most of the diseases’ vectors are ectotherms, which themselves are susceptible to thermal changes. The Chagas disease is one neglected tropical disease caused by the protozoan parasite, Trypanosoma cruzi. One of the main vectors of the Chagas disease in South America is Triatoma infestans, a species traditionally considered to be restricted to domestic or peridomestic habitats, but sylvatic foci have also been described along its distribution. The infestation of wild individuals, together with the projections of environmental changes due to global warming, urge the need to understand the relationship between temperature and the vector’s performance. Here, we evaluated the impact of temperature variability on the thermal response of T. infestans. We acclimated individuals to six thermal treatments for five weeks to then estimate their thermal performance curves (TPCs) by measuring the walking speed of the individuals. We found that the TPCs varied with thermal acclimation and body mass. Individuals acclimated to a low and variable ambient temperature (18°C ± 5°C) exhibited lower performances than those individuals acclimated to an optimal temperature (27°C ± 0°C); while those individuals acclimated to a low but constant temperature (18°C ± 0°C) did not differ in their maximal performance from those at an optimal temperature. Additionally, thermal variability (i.e., ± 5°C) at a high temperature (30°C) increased performance. These results evidenced the plastic response of T. infestans to thermal acclimation. This plastic response and the non-linear effect of thermal variability on the performance of T. infestans posit challenges when predicting changes in the vector’s distribution range under climate change.     

Climate of origin affects tick (Ixodes ricinus) host-seeking behavior in response to temperature: implications for resilience to climate change?

Climate warming is changing distributions and phenologies of many organisms and may also impact on vectors of disease-causing pathogens. In Europe, the tick Ixodes ricinus is the primary vector of medically important pathogens (e.g., Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato, the causative agent of Lyme borreliosis). How might climate change affect I. ricinus host-seeking behavior (questing)? We hypothesize that, in order to maximize survival, I. ricinus have adapted their questing in response to temperature in accordance with local climates. We predicted that ticks from cooler climates quest at cooler temperatures than those from warmer climates. This would suggest that I. ricinus can adapt and therefore have the potential to be resilient to climate change. I. ricinus were collected from a cline of climates using a latitudinal gradient (northeast Scotland, North Wales, South England, and central France). Under laboratory conditions, ticks were subjected to temperature increases of 1°C per day, from 6 to 15°C. The proportion of ticks questing was recorded five times per temperature (i.e., per day). The theoretical potential to quest was then estimated for each population over the year for future climate change projections. As predicted, more ticks from cooler climates quested at lower temperatures than did ticks from warmer climates. The proportion of ticks questing was strongly associated with key climate parameters from each location. Our projections, based on temperature alone, suggested that populations could advance their activity season by a month under climate change, which has implications for exposure periods of hosts to tick-borne pathogens. Our findings suggest that I. ricinus have adapted their behavior in response to climate, implying some potential to adapt to climate change. Predictive models of I. ricinus dynamics and disease risk over continental scales would benefit from knowledge of these differences between populations.     

Temperature dependence of predation depends on the relative performance of predators and prey

The temperature dependence of predation rates is a key issue for understanding and predicting the responses of ecosystems to climate change. Using a simple mechanistic model, we demonstrate that differences in the relative performances of predator and prey can cause strong threshold effects in the temperature dependence of attack rates. Empirical data on the attack rate of northern pike (Esox lucius) feeding on brown trout (Salmo trutta) confirm this result. Attack rates fell sharply below a threshold temperature of +11°C, which corresponded to a shift in relative performance of pike and brown trout with respect to maximum attack and escape swimming speeds. The average attack speed of pike was an order of magnitude lower than the escape speed of brown trout at 5°C, but approximately equal at temperatures above 11°C. Thresholds in the temperature dependence of ecological rates can create tipping points in the responses of ecosystems to increasing temperatures. Thus, identifying thresholds is crucial when predicting future effects of climate warming.