Functional and numerical responses of four lemming predators in high arctic Greenland

The high‐arctic tundra ecosystem has the world's simplest vertebrate predator–prey community, with only four predators preying upon one rodent species, the collared lemming (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus). We document the functional and numerical responses of all the four predators in NE Greenland. Using these data, we assess the impact of predation on the dynamics of the collared lemming with a 4 yr cycle and >100‐fold difference between maximum and minimum densities. All predator species feed mostly (>90%) on lemmings when lemming density is >1 ha^?1, but the shapes of the predators’ responses vary greatly. The snowy owl (Nyctea scandiaca) is present and breeds only when lemming densities at snowmelt are >2 ha^?1, giving rise to a step‐like numerical response. The long‐tailed skua (Stercorarius longicaudus) has a type III functional response and shifts from alternate food (mainly berries and insects) to lemmings with increasing lemming density. The skua surpasses all the other predators in summer by its total response. The type III functional response of the Arctic fox (Alopex lagopus) starts to increase at much lower lemming densities than the responses of the avian predators, but it has only a weak numerical response. Finally, the stoat (Mustela erminea) is the most specialized predator and the only one with a clearly delayed numerical response. According to their specific functional and numerical responses, each predator plays a key role at some point of the lemming cycle, but only the stoat has the potential to drive the lemming cycle. Stoat predation is greatly reduced in the winter preceding the lemming peak, and it reaches a maximum in the winter preceding the lowest lemming summer density. Stoat predation appears to maintain low lemming densities for at least two successive years. Our study provides empirical support for the specialist predator hypothesis about small mammal population cycles.     

Mechanisms determining the spatial distribution of microtine predators on the Arctic tundra

1. We studied the spatial distribution of avian microtine predators using data from 19 study areas on the tundra of northern Siberia.
2. Numbers of snowy owls, and long-tailed skuas and pomarine skuas depended strongly on lemming density. However, a significant relationship between lemming density and number of rough-legged buzzards appeared first after removal of the effect of snowy owl abundance on the distribution of rough-legged buzzards.
3. We applied a recently developed method (Manly 1995) to examine co-occurrences of species and found that rough-legged buzzards and snowy owls did not co-occur while snowy owls, long-tailed skuas and pomarine skuas did.
4. There are large differences in nest construction and chick behaviour between rough-legged buzzards and the three other species. Moreover, the snow owl is a polyphagous predator preying also on large birds including raptor chicks. Therefore, we propose that reduced risk of nest predation favours rough-legged buzzards nesting away from snowy owls.
5. Variations in abundance of the two lemming species did not seem to influence the distributions of snowy owls and rough-legged buzzards. Neither was it likely that latitudinally related factors such as breeding season length affected the distribution of rough-legged buzzards.     

Climate change and cyclic predator–prey population dynamics in the high Arctic

The high Arctic has the world's simplest terrestrial vertebrate predator–prey community, with the collared lemming being the single main prey of four predators, the snowy owl, the Arctic fox, the long-tailed skua, and the stoat. Using a 20-year-long time series of population densities for the five species and a dynamic model that has been previously parameterized for northeast Greenland, we analyzed the population and community level consequences of the ongoing and predicted climate change. Species' responses to climate change are complex, because in addition to the direct effects of climate change, which vary depending on species' life histories, species are also affected indirectly due to, e.g., predator–prey interactions. The lemming–predator community exemplifies these complications, yet a robust conclusion emerges from our modeling: in practically all likely scenarios of how climate change may influence the demography of the species, climate change increases the length of the lemming population cycle and decreases the maximum population densities. The latter change in particular is detrimental to the populations of the predators, which are adapted to make use of the years of the greatest prey abundance. Therefore, climate change will indirectly reduce the predators' reproductive success and population densities, and may ultimately lead to local extinction of some of the predator species. Based on these results, we conclude that the recent anomalous observations about lack of cyclic lemming dynamics in eastern Greenland may well be the first signs of a severe impact of climate change on the lemming–predator communities in Greenland and elsewhere in the high Arctic.     

Wintering space use and site fidelity in a nomadic species,the snowy owl

Migratory species can exploit many habitats over vast geographic areas and adopt various patterns of space and habitat use throughout their annual cycle. In nomadic species, determinants of habitat use during the non‐breeding season are poorly known due to the unpredictability of their movement patterns. Here, we analysed variability in wintering space and habitat use by a highly nomadic species, the snowy owl, in eastern North America. Using 21 females tracked by satellite telemetry between 2007 and 2016, we 1) assessed how space use patterns in winter varied according to the type of environment (marine vs terrestrial), latitudinal zone (Arctic vs temperate), local snow conditions and lemming densities and 2) investigated winter habitat and site fidelity. Our results confirmed a high inter‐individual variation in patterns of habitat use by wintering snowy owls. Highly‐used areas were concentrated in the Arctic and in the marine and coastal environments. Owls wintering in the marine environment travelled over longer distances during the winter, had larger home ranges and these were divided in more smaller zones than individuals in terrestrial environments. Wintering home range sizes decreased with high winter lemming densities, use of the marine environment increased following high summer lemming densities, and a thick snow cover in autumn led to later settlement on the wintering ground. Contrary to expectations, snowy owls tended to make greater use of the marine environment when snow cover was thin. Snowy owls were highly consistent in their use of a given wintering environment and a specific latitudinal zone between years, but demonstrated flexibility in their space use and a modest site fidelity. The snowy owls’ consistency in wintering habitat use may provide them with advantages in terms of experience but their mobility and flexibility may help them to cope with changing environmental conditions at fine spatial scale.     

Irruptive movements and breeding dispersal of snowy owls: a specialized predator exploiting a pulsed resource

Mobility and irruptive movements have been proposed as mechanisms that could allow some diet specialists to inhabit and breed in environments with highly unpredictable resources, like the arctic tundra. The snowy owl, one of the main avian predators of the tundra, is known to specialize on lemmings during the breeding season. These small mammals are also well known for their tremendous spatial and temporal variations in abundance. We examined the spring (pre‐breeding, from March to June) movements of snowy owls by tracking 9 breeding females in the Canadian Arctic for up to 3 yr with satellite transmitters. We used state‐space modeling to assess searching behavior and measure breeding dispersal distances. We also ascertain lemming abundance at some of the sites used by the marked owls. Tracked owls displayed searching movements for extended periods (up to 108 d) and traveled over large distances (up to 4093 km) each spring. The distance between furthest apart searching areas in a given year averaged 828 km (range 220 to 2433 km). Settlement date, distance between searching areas, traveled distance and the duration of prospecting movements were longer in the year where density of lemmings recorded in the eastern High‐Arctic (Bylot Island) was lowest. Nonetheless, snowy owls settled in areas where local lemming abundance was relatively high. Individual breeding dispersal distance between consecutive years averaged 725 km (range 18 to 2224). Overall, the high mobility of female snowy owls allowed these diet specialists to behave as irruptive migrants and to sustain their reproductive activities during consecutive years even under highly fluctuating resources.     

Predation of arctic fox (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Vulpes lagopus</Emphasis>) pups by common ravens (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Corvus corax</Emphasis>)

Identifying correctly trophic interactions is important for understanding population dynamics and ecosystem functioning. However, some predator–prey relationships may still remain undetected, due to the difficulty of observing rare predation events. We report the first observation of predation of arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) pups by common ravens (Corvus corax). The predation event was witnessed on Bylot Island, Nunavut, Canada, through an automatic camera placed on a den. On June 8, 2013, the day following pup emergence from the den, the complete litter of four was killed and taken away by a pair of ravens despite the intermittent presence of the mother. This event lasted 2.5 h, occurred during a low lemming year, and resulted in the fox pair failing their reproduction. Only two other fox litters were present that summer in our 600 km² study area, so this litter predated by ravens accounted for 25 % (4/16) of the pups produced. Our report shows how continuous monitoring of dens using automatic cameras can allow documentation of rare events. In addition to food competition and cache raiding, pup predation contributes to the antagonistic interactions between arctic foxes and ravens in the High Arctic, which may intensify during low lemming years. This observation allows a better understanding of species interactions within the Arctic predator guild.     

Variability in stable isotopes of snowy owl feathers and contribution of marine resources to their winter diet

The snowy owl is an elusive arctic predator known for its nomadic behaviour. Satellite tracking has revealed that some adult snowy owls could make an extensive use of the marine environment during the non‐breeding season. However, the relative contribution of marine resources to their diet is unknown. Stable isotope analyses can be useful to document the diet of mobile animals during periods of the year when individuals are less accessible. This study aimed to assess variation in isotopic values (δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N) of various feather types, and the usefulness of feathers to determine the contribution of the marine environment to the winter diet of snowy owls captured in summer. We sampled feathers coming from 6 body regions of 18 breeding females at two sites in the eastern Canadian Arctic in 2013 and 2014. Prior to analyses, diet‐tissue discrimination factors of snowy owl feathers were established in captivity. Variability in isotopic values among feather types was relatively low and pairwise correlations in isotopic values between feathers on the same individual were variable and often low, which suggests differences in the diet at the time when various feathers were synthesized. Diet reconstruction models detected a contribution of marine sources to snowy owl feathers ranging from 4 to 19% among feather types. However, the marine contribution was highly variable when single feathers were examined within individuals, ranging from 3 to 71%. This indicated that no single feather type could be used alone to reliably infer the contribution of marine resources to the winter diet of owls, possibly due to a high variability in the timing and sequence of molt. For asynchronous molters like snowy owls, we recommend sampling multiple feathers from various body regions, excluding wing feathers, to investigate winter diet or habitat use.     

Predator–prey relationships: arctic foxes and lemmings

1. The number of breeding dens and litter sizes of arctic foxes Alopex lagopus were recorded and the diet of the foxes was analysed during a ship-based expedition to 17 sites along the Siberian north coast. At the same time the cyclic dynamics of co-existing lemming species were examined.
2. The diet of arctic foxes was dominated by the Siberian lemming Lemmus sibiricus (on one site the Norwegian lemming L. lemmus ), followed by the collared lemming Dicrostonyx torquatus .
3. The examined Lemmus sibiricus populations were in different phases of the lemming cycle as determined by age profiles and population densities.
4. The numerical response of arctic foxes to varying densities of Lemmus had a time lag of 1 year, producing a pattern of limit cycles in lemming–arctic fox interactions. Arctic fox litter sizes showed no time lag, but a linear relation to Lemmus densities. We found no evidence for a numerical response to population density changes in Dicrostonyx .
5. The functional or dietary response of arctic foxes followed a type II curve for Lemmus , but a type III response curve for Dicrostonyx .
6. Arctic foxes act as resident specialist for Lemmus and may increase the amplitude and period of their population cycles. For Dicrostonyx , on the other hand, arctic foxes act as generalists which suggests a capacity to dampen oscillations.     

Habitat selection,reproduction and predation of wintering lemmings in the Arctic

Snow cover has dramatic effects on the structure and functioning of Arctic ecosystems in winter. In the tundra, the subnivean space is the primary habitat of wintering small mammals and may be critical for their survival and reproduction. We have investigated the effects of snow cover and habitat features on the distributions of collared lemming (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus) and brown lemming (Lemmus trimucronatus) winter nests, as well as on their probabilities of reproduction and predation by stoats (Mustela erminea) and arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus). We sampled 193 lemming winter nests and measured habitat features at all of these nests and at random sites at two spatial scales. We also monitored overwinter ground temperature at a subsample of nest and random sites. Our results demonstrate that nests were primarily located in areas with high micro-topography heterogeneity, steep slopes, deep snow cover providing thermal protection (reduced daily temperature fluctuations) and a high abundance of mosses. The probability of reproduction increased in collared lemming nests at low elevation and in brown lemming nests with high availability of some graminoid species. The probability of predation by stoats was density dependent and was higher in nests used by collared lemmings. Snow cover did not affect the probability of predation of lemming nests by stoats, but deep snow cover limited predation attempts by arctic foxes. We conclude that snow cover plays a key role in the spatial structure of wintering lemming populations and potentially in their population dynamics in the Arctic.     

Are goose nesting success and lemming cycles linked? Interplay between nest density and predators

The suggested link between lemming cycles and reproductive success of arctic birds is caused by potential effects of varying predation pressure (the Alternative Prey Hypothesis, APH) and protective association with birds of prey (the Nesting Association Hypothesis, NAH). We used data collected over two complete lemming cycles to investigate how fluctuations in lemming density were associated with nesting success of greater snow geese ( Anser caerulescens atlanticus ) in the Canadian High Arctic. We tested predictions of the APH and NAH for geese breeding at low and high densities. Goose nesting success varied from 22% to 91% between years and the main egg predator was the arctic fox ( Alopex lagopus ). Nesting associations with snowy owls ( Nyctea scandiaca ) were observed but only during peak lemming years for geese nesting at low density. Goose nesting success declined as distance from owls increased and reached a plateau at 550 m. Artificial nest experiments indicated that owls can exclude predators from the vicinity of their nests and thus reduce goose egg predation rate. Annual nest failure rate was negatively associated with rodent abundance and was generally highest in low lemming years. This relationship was present even after excluding goose nests under the protective influence of owls. However, nest failure was inversely density-dependent at high breeding density. Thus, annual variations in nest density influenced the synchrony between lemming cycles and oscillations in nesting success. Our results suggest that APH is the main mechanism linking lemming cycles and goose nesting success and that nesting associations during peak lemming years (NAH) can enhance this positive link at the local level. The study also shows that breeding strategies used by birds (the alternative prey) could affect the synchrony between oscillations in avian reproductive success and rodent cycles.     

Multiple predators induce risk reduction in coexisting vole species

Large predators may affect the hunting efficiency of smaller ones directly by decreasing their numbers, or indirectly by altering their behaviour. Either way this may have positive effects on the density of shared prey. Using large outdoor enclosures, we experimentally studied whether the presence of the Tengmalm's owl Aegolius funereus affects the hunting efficiency of the smallest member of the vole-eating predator guild, the least weasel Mustela nivalis, as measured by population responses of coexisting prey species, the field vole Microtus agrestis and the sibling vole M. levis . We compared the density and survival probability of vole populations exposed to no predation, weasel predation or combined predation by a weasel and an owl. The combined predation of both owl and weasel did not result in obvious changes in the density of sibling and field vole populations compared to the control populations without predators, while predation by least weasel alone decreased the densities of sibling voles and induced a similar trend in field vole densities. Survival of field voles was not affected by predator treatment while sibling vole survival was lower in predator treated populations than in control populations. Our results suggest that weasels are intimidated by avian predators, but without changing the effects of predators on competitive situations between the two vole species. Non-lethal effects of intraguild predation therefore will not necessarily change competitive interactions between shared prey species.     

Dark-bellied brent geese Branta b. bernicla breeding near snowy owl Nyctea scandiaca nests lay more and larger eggs

Several studies have demonstrated that snowy owls Nyctea scandiaca defend an area around their nests against predators, hereby inadvertently creating safe havens for breeding dark-bellied brent geese Branta b. bernicla . However, studies investigating brent goose breeding ecology within the predator-exclusion zones of the snowy owls are absent. In 1999 and 2005, years of high lemming abundance Lemmus sibiricus and Dicrostonyx torquatus , brent geese were primarily breeding in association with snowy owls in the Medusa river catchment on western Taimyr, Russia. Goose nest failure, either as a result of nest abandonment by the adult birds or of nest depredation, increased with increasing distance from the owl nests. Within the brent goose colonies, clutch size as well as egg size increased with decreasing distance from the snowy owl nest, indicating an increasing adult quality closer to owl nests. However, as a result of the abandonment of eggs and goslings, the increasing clutch size did not result in a higher nest success during this study. Apparently brent geese compete for breeding sites close to owl nests, but details of this process remain unknown.     

Brent goose colonies near snowy owls: Internest distances in relation to abundance of lemmings and arctic foxes

Brent goose colonies around snowy owl nests have been studied near Medusa Bay (73°21′ N, 80°32′ E) and in the lower reaches of the Uboinaya River (73°37′N, 82°10′E), the northwestern Taimyr Peninsula, from 1999 to 2006. All brent nests within 680 m from an owl nest have been regarded as an individual colony. The results show that the area of the colony is always larger than the protected area around the owl nest. In years of low abundance of lemmings, brent geese nest generally closer to the owl nest than in years of high abundance. When arctic foxes are abundant, however, brent geese nest significantly closer to owls than when the foxes are scarce, irrespective of lemming abundance. The mechanism of brent colony formation around owl nests is based on a number of stimuli.     

The nature of lemming cycles on Wrangel: an island without small mustelids

Lemming cycles are a key process in the functioning of tundra ecosystems. Although it is agreed that trophic interactions are important in causing the cycles, the actual mechanism is disputed. Some researchers attribute a major role to predation by small mustelids such as stoats and least weasels. Here we present a 40-year time series of lemming dynamics from Wrangel Island and show statistically that lemmings do exhibit population cycles in the absence of small mustelids. The observed density fluctuations differed, however, from those observed elsewhere, with long cycles and possibly higher densities of lemmings during the low phase. These differences in the shape of the population cycles may be related to the unique species assemblage of Wrangel Island, where arctic foxes are the only year-round resident lemming predator, and to the high diversity of landscapes, microclimatic conditions, and plants on the island. Both spectral analysis and wavelet analysis show a change in period length from five?years in the 1970s to nearly eight?years in the 1990s and 2000s. This change in dynamics coincides with reports of dampening or fading out of lemming cycles that have been observed in several regions of the Arctic in recent decades. As in the other cases, the changed lemming dynamics on Wrangel Island may be related to ground icing in winter, which could delay peak years.     

An avian terrestrial predator of the Arctic relies on the marine ecosystem during winter

Top predators of the arctic tundra are facing a long period of very low prey availability during winter and subsidies from other ecosystems such as the marine environment may help to support their populations. Satellite tracking of snowy owls, a top predator of the tundra, revealed that most adult females breeding in the Canadian Arctic overwinter at high latitudes in the eastern Arctic and spend several weeks (up to 101 d) on the sea‐ice between December and April. Analysis of high‐resolution satellite images of sea‐ice indicated that owls were primarily gathering around open water patches in the ice, which are commonly used by wintering seabirds, a potential prey. Such extensive use of sea‐ice by a tundra predator considered a small mammal specialist was unexpected, and suggests that marine resources subsidize snowy owl populations in winter. As sea‐ice regimes in winter are expected to change over the next decades due to climate warming, this may affect the wintering strategy of this top predator and ultimately the functioning of the tundra ecosystem.     

Strength of asymmetric competition between predators in food webs ruled by fluctuating prey: the case of foxes in tundra

In food webs heavily influenced by multi‐annual population fluctuations of key herbivores, predator species may differ in their functional and numerical responses as well as their competitive ability. Focusing on red and arctic fox in tundra with cyclic populations of rodents as key prey, we develop a model to predict how population dynamics of a dominant and versatile predator (red fox) impacted long‐term growth rate of a subdominant and less versatile predator (arctic fox). We compare three realistic scenarios of red fox performance: (1) a numerical response scenario where red fox acted as a resident rodent specialist exhibiting population cycles lagging one year after the rodent cycle, (2) an aggregative response scenario where red fox shifted between tundra and a nearby ecosystem (i.e. boreal forest) so as to track rodent peaks in tundra without delay, and (3) a constant subsidy scenario in which the red fox population was stabilized at the same mean density as in the other two scenarios. For all three scenarios it is assumed that the arctic fox responded numerically as a rodent specialist and that the mechanisms of competition is of a interference type for space, in which the arctic fox is excluded from the most resource rich patches in tundra. Arctic fox is impacted most by the constant subsidy scenario and least by the numerical response scenario. The differential effects of the scenarios stemmed from cyclic phase‐dependent sensitivity to competition mediated by changes in temporal mean and variance of available prey to the subdominant predator. A general implication from our result is that external resource subsidies (prey or habitats), monopolized by the dominant competitor, can significantly reduce the likelihood for co‐existence within the predator guild. In terms of conservation of vulnerable arctic fox populations this means that the likelihood of extinction increases with increasing amount of subsidies (e.g. carcasses of large herbivores or marine resources) in tundra and nearby forest areas, since it will act to both increase and stabilize populations of red fox.     

Linking killer whale survival and prey abundance: food limitation in the oceans' apex predator?

Killer whales (Orcinus orca) are large predators that occupy the top trophic position in the world''s oceans and as such may have important roles in marine ecosystem dynamics. Although the possible top-down effects of killer whale predation on populations of their prey have received much recent attention, little is known of how the abundance of these predators may be limited by bottom-up processes. Here we show, using 25 years of demographic data from two populations of fish-eating killer whales in the northeastern Pacific Ocean, that population trends are driven largely by changes in survival, and that survival rates are strongly correlated with the availability of their principal prey species, Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). Our results suggest that, although these killer whales may consume a variety of fish species, they are highly specialized and dependent on this single salmonid species to an extent that it is a limiting factor in their population dynamics. Other ecologically specialized killer whale populations may be similarly constrained to a narrow range of prey species by culturally inherited foraging strategies, and thus are limited in their ability to adapt rapidly to changing prey availability.     

What determines prey selection in owls? Roles of prey traits,prey class,environmental variables,and taxonomic specialization

Ecological theory suggests that prey size should increase with predator size, but this trend may be masked by other factors affecting prey selection, such as environmental constraints or specific prey preferences of predator species. Owls are an ideal case study for exploring how predator body size affects prey selection in the presence of other factors due to the ease of analyzing their diets from owl pellets and their widespread distributions, allowing interspecific comparisons between variable habitats. Here, we analyze various dimensions of prey resource selection among owls, including prey size, taxonomy (i.e., whether or not particular taxa are favored regardless of their size), and prey traits (movement type, social structure, activity pattern, and diet). We collected pellets of five sympatric owl species (Athene noctua, Tyto alba, Asio otus, Strix aluco, and Bubo bubo) from 78 sites across the Mediterranean Levant. Prey intake was compared between sites, with various environmental variables and owl species as predictors of abundance. Despite significant environmental impacts on prey intake, some key patterns emerge among owl species studied. Owls select prey by predator body size: Larger owls tend to feed on wider ranges of prey sizes, leading to higher means. In addition, guild members show both specialization and generalism in terms of prey taxa, sometimes in contrast with the expectations of the predator–prey body size hypothesis. Our results suggest that while predator body size is an important factor in prey selection, taxon specialization by predator species also has considerable impact.     

Coping with fast climate change in northern ecosystems: mechanisms underlying the population‐level response of a specialist avian predator

Northern ecosystems are facing unprecedented climate modifications, which pose a major threat for arctic species, especially the specialist predator guild. However, the mechanisms underlying responses of predators to climate change remain poorly understood. Climate can influence fitness parameters of predators either through reduced reproduction or survival following adverse weather conditions, or via changes in the population dynamics of their main prey. Here, we combined three overlapping long‐term datasets on the breeding density and parameters of a rodent‐specialist predator, the rough‐legged buzzard Buteo lagopus, its main prey population dynamics and climate variables, collected in subarctic areas of Finland and Norway, to assess the impact of changing climate on the predator reproductive response. Rough‐legged buzzards responded to ongoing climate change by advancing their laying date (0.1 d yr^?1 over the 21 yr of the study period), as a consequence of earlier snowmelt. However, we documented for the same period a decrease in breeding success, which principally resulted from an indirect effect of changes in the dynamics of their main prey, i.e. grey‐sided voles Microtus oeconomus, and not from the expected negative effect of unfavorable weather conditions during the brood‐rearing period on nestling survival. Additionally, we showed the striking impact of autumn and winter weather conditions on vole population growth rates in subarctic ecosystems, with a strong positive correlation between mean snow depth in autumn and winter and both winter and summer population growth rates. Our results highlighted that, in northern ecosystems, ongoing climate change has the potential to impact specialist predator species through two mechanistic linkages, which may in the long‐run, threaten the viability of their populations, and lead to potential severe cascading trophic effects at the ecosystem level.