共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
The paper examines impacts on mortality of heat waves in 2003, the hottest summer on record in the Czech Republic, and compares
them with previous similar events. While most summer heat waves over the period since 1986 were associated with significantly
elevated mortality, this was not the case for three out of the four heat waves in 2003. The relatively weak mortality response
was particularly noteworthy for the most severe heat wave which occurred in the first 10 days of August 2003 and resulted
in enormous excess mortality in some western European countries. A mortality displacement effect and short-term adaptation
to heat contributed to the reduced mortality impacts of the heat waves that followed after previous relatively warm periods.
However, the decreased mortality response of the 2003 heat waves compared to previous heat waves in the 1990s is also likely
to have arisen from positive health-care and other socio-economic changes in the post-communist central European region over
the past decade, as well as a better public awareness of heat-related risks due to enhanced media coverage and regular biometeorological
forecast and warnings. 相似文献
2.
Aleš Urban Hana Davídkovová Jan Kyselý 《International journal of biometeorology》2014,58(6):1057-1068
Several studies have examined the relationship of high and low air temperatures to cardiovascular mortality in the Czech Republic. Much less is understood about heat-/cold-related cardiovascular morbidity and possible regional differences. This paper compares the effects of warm and cold days on excess mortality and morbidity for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in the city of Prague and a rural region of southern Bohemia during 1994–2009. Population size and age structure are similar in the two regions. The results are evaluated for selected population groups (men and women). Excess mortality (number of deaths) and morbidity (number of hospital admissions) were determined as differences between observed and expected daily values, the latter being adjusted for long-term changes, annual and weekly cycles, and epidemics of influenza/acute respiratory infections. Generally higher relative excess CVD mortality on warm days than on cold days was identified in both regions. In contrast to mortality, weak excess CVD morbidity was observed for both warm and cold days. Different responses of individual CVDs to heat versus cold stress may be caused by the different nature of each CVD and different physiological processes induced by heat or cold stress. The slight differences between Prague and southern Bohemia in response to heat versus cold stress suggest the possible influence of environmental and socioeconomic factors such as the effects of urban heat island and exposure to air pollution, lifestyle differences, and divergence in population structure, which may result in differing vulnerability of urban versus rural population to temperature extremes. 相似文献
3.
I. Cech M. H. Smolensky R. Lane H. Nagata Y. Takahashi T. Morimoto 《International journal of biometeorology》1979,23(2):89-105
The study and interpretation of temporal variability in mortality requires the consideration of both exogenous and endogenous influences as underlying factors. In the present paper the relative contribution of fluctuations in daily weather was investigated using the unbiased techniques of lagged cross-correlation and spectral analyses. The study focused on patterns of daily mortality in Kyoto, Japan. Studied herein were total mortality of all ages less accidental, ischemic heart (IHD), cerebrovascular (CVD), cardiovascular (IHD + CVD), cancer and among elderly (over 70 years of age) deaths. The meteorological factors were mean, maximum and minimum daily temperature, mean barometric pressure, mean relative humidity, and mean and maximum wind speed. It was found that after extreme weather conditions, such as heat waves (with mean air temperature in excess of 30°C) or the intrusion of cold waves (with mean air temperature below 0°C), mortality increased to about three times the daily average with a lag effect of usually one—three days and up to one week. Over the year, however, weather fluctuations were found to account statistically for no more than 10% of the overall annual variability in mortality. Importantly, the short-term upswings in mortality were usually accompanied by noticeable drops in the number of deaths on the subsequent days suggesting a triggering effect of external factors. The most weather-sensitive mortality group was people over 70 years of age. 相似文献
4.
France’s heat health watch warning system 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Pascal M Laaidi K Ledrans M Baffert E Caserio-Schönemann C Le Tertre A Manach J Medina S Rudant J Empereur-Bissonnet P 《International journal of biometeorology》2006,50(3):144-153
In 2003, a Heat Health Watch Warning System was developed in France to anticipate heat waves that may result in a large excess
of mortality. The system was developed on the basis of a retrospective analysis of mortality and meteorological data in fourteen
pilot cities. Several meteorological indicators were tested in relation to levels of excess mortality. Computations of sensibility
and specificity were used to choose the meteorological indicators and the cut-offs. An indicator that mixes minimum and maximum
temperatures was chosen. The cut-offs were set in order to anticipate events resulting in an excess mortality above 100% in
the smallest cities and above 50% in Paris, Lyon, Marseille and Lille. The system was extended nationwide using the 98th percentile
of the distribution of minimum and maximum temperatures. A national action plan was set up, using this watch warning system.
It was activated on 1st June 2004 on a national scale. The system implies a close cooperation between the French Weather Bureau
(Météo France), the National Institute of Health Surveillance (InVS) and the Ministry of Health. The system is supported by
a panel of preventive actions, to prevent the sanitary impact of heat waves. 相似文献
5.
6.
Short-term effects of extreme hot summer temperatures on total daily mortality in Barcelona, Spain 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Aurelio Tobías Patricia García de Olalla Cristina Linares María J. Bleda Joan A. Caylà Julio Díaz 《International journal of biometeorology》2010,54(2):115-117
The summer of 2003 was exceptionally hot, leading to an excess of mortality in Europe. Here, we assess the short-term effects of extreme hot summer temperatures on total daily mortality in Barcelona (Spain). Daily mortality from burial records, maximum temperature, relative humidity and photochemical pollutants, were collected for the period 1999–2003. Data was analysed using Poisson regression with generalised additive models. Mortality shows a considerable increase when maximum temperatures are over a threshold temperature of 30.5°C. The risk of death associated with an increase of 1°C above the threshold was 6%, 7% and 5% after 1, 2 and 3 days, respectively. Exposure to extreme hot temperatures leads to an significant increase in mortality. 相似文献
7.
Heat waves are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change. The first part of a study to produce projections
of the effect of future climate change on heat-related mortality is presented. Separate city-specific empirical statistical
models that quantify significant relationships between summer daily maximum temperature (T
max) and daily heat-related deaths are constructed from historical data for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London,
and Sydney. ‘Threshold temperatures’ above which heat-related deaths begin to occur are identified. The results demonstrate
significantly lower thresholds in ‘cooler’ cities exhibiting lower mean summer temperatures than in ‘warmer’ cities exhibiting
higher mean summer temperatures. Analysis of individual ‘heat waves’ illustrates that a greater proportion of mortality is
due to mortality displacement in cities with less sensitive temperature–mortality relationships than in those with more sensitive
relationships, and that mortality displacement is no longer a feature more than 12 days after the end of the heat wave. Validation
techniques through residual and correlation analyses of modelled and observed values and comparisons with other studies indicate
that the observed temperature–mortality relationships are represented well by each of the models. The models can therefore
be used with confidence to examine future heat-related deaths under various climate change scenarios for the respective cities
(presented in Part 2). 相似文献
8.
The aim of this work was to determine the criteria for heat loads associated with an increase in mortality in different climatic regions of Croatia. The relationship between heat stress and mortality was analysed for the period 1983–2008. The input series is excess mortality defined as the deviations of mortality from expected values determined by means of a Gaussian filter of 183 days. The assessment of the thermal environment was performed by means of physiologically equivalent temperature (PET). The curve depicting the relationship between mortality and temperature has a U shape, with increased mortality in both the cold and warm parts of the scale but more pronounced in the warm part. The threshold temperature for increased mortality was determined using a scatter plot and fitting data by means of moving average of mortality; the latter is defined as the temperature at which excess mortality becomes significant. The values are higher in the continental part of Croatia than at the coast due to the refreshing influence of the sea during the day. The same analysis on a monthly basis shows that at the beginning of the warm season increased mortality occurs at a lower temperature compared with later on in the summer, and the difference is up to 15 °C between August and April. The increase in mortality is highest during the first 3–5 days and after that it decreases and falls below the expected value. Long-lasting heat waves present an increased risk, but in very long heat waves the increase in mortality is reduced due to mortality displacement. 相似文献
9.
Golden JS Hartz D Brazel A Luber G Phelan P 《International journal of biometeorology》2008,52(6):471-480
Heat waves kill more people in the United States than hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, and floods combined. Recently, international attention focused on the linkages and impacts of human health vulnerability to urban climate when Western Europe experienced over 30,000 excess deaths during the heat waves of the summer of 2003-surpassing the 1995 heat wave in Chicago, Illinois, that killed 739. While Europe dealt with heat waves, in the United States, Phoenix, Arizona, established a new all-time high minimum temperature for the region on July 15, 2003. The low temperature of 35.5 degrees C (96 degrees F) was recorded, breaking the previous all-time high minimum temperature record of 33.8 degrees C (93 degrees F). While an extensive literature on heat-related mortality exists, greater understanding of influences of heat-related morbidity is required due to climate change and rapid urbanization influences. We undertook an analysis of 6 years (2001-2006) of heat-related dispatches through the Phoenix Fire Department regional dispatch center to examine temporal, climatic and other non-spatial influences contributing to high-heat-related medical dispatch events. The findings identified that there were no significant variations in day-of-week dispatch events. The greatest incidence of heat-related medical dispatches occurred between the times of peak solar irradiance and maximum diurnal temperature, and during times of elevated human comfort indices (combined temperature and relative humidity). 相似文献
10.
A comparative analysis of heat waves and associated mortality in St. Louis, Missouri – 1980 and 1995
K. E. Smoyer 《International journal of biometeorology》1998,42(1):44-50
This research investigates heat-related mortality during the 1980 and 1995 heat waves in St. Louis, Missouri. St. Louis has
a long history of extreme summer weather, and heat-related mortality is a public health concern. Heat waves are defined as
days with apparent temperatures exceeding 40.6°C (105°F). The study uses a multivariate analysis to investigate the relationship
between mortality and heat wave intensity, duration, and timing within the summer season. The heat wave of 1980 was more severe
and had higher associated mortality than that of 1995. To learn if changing population characteristics, in addition to weather
conditions, contributed to this difference, changes in population vulnerability between 1980 and 1995 are evaluated under
simulated heat wave conditions. The findings show that St. Louis remains at risk of heat wave mortality. In addition, there
is evidence that vulnerability has increased despite increased air-conditioning penetration and public health interventions.
Received: 12 August 1997 / Revised: 12 January 1998 / Accepted: 13 February 1998 相似文献
11.
The study examines the relationship between sudden changes in weather conditions in summer, represented by (1) sudden air
temperature changes, (2) sudden atmospheric pressure changes, and (3) passages of strong atmospheric fronts; and variations
in daily mortality in the population of the Czech Republic. The events are selected from data covering 1986–2005 and compared
with the database of daily excess all-cause mortality for the whole population and persons aged 70 years and above. Relative
deviations of mortality, i.e., ratios of the excess mortality to the expected number of deaths, were averaged over the selected
events for days D−2 (2 days before a change) up to D+7 (7 days after), and their statistical significance was tested by means
of the Monte Carlo method. We find that the periods around weather changes are associated with pronounced patterns in mortality:
a significant increase in mortality is found after large temperature increases and on days of large pressure drops; a decrease
in mortality (partly due to a harvesting effect) occurs after large temperature drops, pressure increases, and passages of
strong cold fronts. The relationship to variations in excess mortality is better expressed for sudden air temperature/pressure
changes than for passages of atmospheric fronts. The mortality effects are usually more pronounced in the age group 70 years
and above. The impacts associated with large negative changes of pressure are statistically independent of the effects of
temperature; the corresponding dummy variable is found to be a significant predictor in the ARIMA model for relative deviations
of mortality. This suggests that sudden weather changes should be tested also in time series models for predicting excess
mortality as they may enhance their performance. 相似文献
12.
Heat wave impacts on mortality in Shanghai, 1998 and 2003 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Tan J Zheng Y Song G Kalkstein LS Kalkstein AJ Tang X 《International journal of biometeorology》2007,51(3):193-200
A variety of research has linked extreme heat to heightened levels of daily mortality and, not surprisingly, heat waves both
in 1998 and in 2003 all led to elevated mortality in Shanghai, China. While the heat waves in the two years were similar in
meteorological character, elevated mortality was much more pronounced during the 1998 event, but it remains unclear why the
human response was so varied. In order to explain the differences in human mortality between the two years’ heat waves, and
to better understand how heat impacts human health, we examine a wide range of meteorological, pollution, and social variables
in Shanghai during the summers (15 June to 15 September) of 1998 and 2003. Thus, the goal of this study is to determine what
was responsible for the varying human health response during the two heat events. A multivariate analysis is used to investigate
the relationships between mortality and heat wave intensity, duration, and timing within the summer season, along with levels
of air pollution. It was found that for heat waves in both summers, mortality was strongly associated with the duration of
the heat wave. In addition, while slightly higher than average, the air pollution levels for the two heat waves were similar
and cannot fully explain the observed differences in human mortality. Finally, since the meteorological conditions and pollution
levels for the two heat waves were alike, we conclude that improvements in living conditions in Shanghai, such as increased
use of air conditioning, larger living areas, and increased urban green space, along with higher levels of heat awareness
and the implementation of a heat warning system, were responsible for the lower levels of human mortality in 2003 compared
to 1998. 相似文献
13.
Deaths from heat-stroke in Japan: 1968–1994 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
Global warming is increasingly recognized as a threat to the survival of human beings, because it could cause a serious increase
in the occurrence of diseases due to environmental heat during intermittent hot weather. To assess the direct impact of extremely
hot weather on human health, we investigated heat-related deaths in Japan from 1968 through 1994, analyzing the data to determine
the distribution of the deaths by age and their correlation to the incidence of hot days in summer. Vital Statistics of Japan, published by the Ministry of Health and Welfare of Japan, was the source of the heat-related mortality data employed in
this study. Meteorological data were obtained from the District Meteorological Observatories in Tokyo and Osaka, the two largest
cities in Japan. Heat-related deaths were most prone to occur on days with a peak daily temperature above 38°C, and the incidence
of these deaths showed an exponential dependence on the number of hot days. Thus, even a small rise in atmospheric temperature
may lead to a considerable increase in heat-related mortality, indicating the importance of combating global warming. Furthermore,
half (50.1%) of the above-noted deaths occurred in children (4 years and under) and the elderly (70 years and over) irrespective
of gender, indicating the vulnerability of these specific age groups to heat. Since a warmer climate is predicted in the future,
the incidence of heat waves will increase, and more comprehensive measures, both medical and social, should be adopted for
children of 4 years and younger the elderly to prevent heat-related deaths in these age groups.
Received: 20 January 1999 / Accepted: 15 June 1999 相似文献
14.
Low fertility of cattle during the cool autumn is mostly associated with exposure to thermal stress in the previous summer. This study examined carry-over effects of summer heat stress and induction of enhanced follicular turnover, on the characteristics of preovulatory follicles during autumn. Holstein cows were treated with PGF2 and GnRH to induce six successive 9-day follicular waves during autumn. Intact cows served as controls. Follicular fluid concentrations of androstenedione were higher in treated cows, but those of IGF-I and progesterone did not differ between groups. The concentration of estradiol at the end of the treatment was higher, and the content per follicle increased with time and was numerically higher in treated cows. The volume of follicular fluid increased during the autumn and was greater in treated cows. A delayed effect of heat stress on preovulatory follicles was noted, and induction of follicular waves by GnRH was able to improve follicular characteristics in autumn. 相似文献
15.
Jianguo Tan Youfei Zheng Xu Tang Changyi Guo Liping Li Guixiang Song Xinrong Zhen Dong Yuan Adam J. Kalkstein Furong Li Heng Chen 《International journal of biometeorology》2010,54(1):75-84
With global warming forecast to continue into the foreseeable future, heat waves are very likely to increase in both frequency and intensity. In urban regions, these future heat waves will be exacerbated by the urban heat island effect, and will have the potential to negatively influence the health and welfare of urban residents. In order to investigate the health effects of the urban heat island (UHI) in Shanghai, China, 30 years of meteorological records (1975–2004) were examined for 11 first- and second-order weather stations in and around Shanghai. Additionally, automatic weather observation data recorded in recent years as well as daily all-cause summer mortality counts in 11 urban, suburban, and exurban regions (1998–2004) in Shanghai have been used. The results show that different sites (city center or surroundings) have experienced different degrees of warming as a result of increasing urbanization. In turn, this has resulted in a more extensive urban heat island effect, causing additional hot days and heat waves in urban regions compared to rural locales. An examination of summer mortality rates in and around Shanghai yields heightened heat-related mortality in urban regions, and we conclude that the UHI is directly responsible, acting to worsen the adverse health effects from exposure to extreme thermal conditions. 相似文献
16.
Annamaria Antics Mathilde Pascal Karine Laaidi Vérène Wagner Magali Corso Christophe Declercq Pascal Beaudeau 《International journal of biometeorology》2013,57(1):75-81
We propose a simple method to provide a rapid and robust estimate of the short-term impacts of heat waves on mortality, to be used for communication within a heat warning system. The excess mortality during a heat wave is defined as the difference between the observed mortality over the period and the observed mortality over the same period during the N preceding years. This method was tested on 19 French cities between 1973 and 2007. In six cities, we compared the excess mortality to that obtained using a modelling of the temperature-mortality relationship. There was a good agreement between the excess mortalities estimated by the simple indicator and by the models. Major differences were observed during the most extreme heat waves, in 1983 and 2003, and after the implementation of the heat prevention plan in 2006. Excluding these events, the mean difference between the estimates obtained by the two methods was of 13 deaths [1:45]. A comparison of mortality with the previous years provides a simple estimate of the mortality impact of heat waves. It can be used to provide early and reliable information to stakeholders of the heat prevention plan, and to select heat waves that should be further investigated. 相似文献
17.
The Toronto–Windsor corridor of Southern Ontario, Canada, experiences hot and humid weather conditions in summer, thus exposing
the population to heat stress and a greater risk of mortality. In the event of a climate change, heat-stress conditions may
become more frequent and severe in Southern Ontario. To assess the impact of summer weather on health, we analyzed heat-related
mortality in the elderly (older than 64 years) in the metropolitan areas of Windsor, London, Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge,
Hamilton, and Toronto for a 17-year period. Demographic, socioeconomic, and housing factors were also evaluated to assess
their effect on the potential of the population to adapt and their vulnerability to heat stress. Heat-stress days were defined
as those with an apparent temperature (heat index) above 32°C. Mortality among the elderly was significantly higher on heat-stress
days than on non-heat-stress days in all cities except Windsor. The strongest relationships occurred in Toronto and London,
followed by Hamilton. Cities with the greatest heat-related mortality have relatively high levels of urbanization and high
costs of living. Even without the warming induced by a climate change, (1) vulnerability is likely to increase as the population
ages, and (2) ongoing urban development and sprawl are expected to intensify heat-stress conditions in Southern Ontario. Actions
should be taken to reduce vulnerability to heat stress conditions, and to develop a comprehensive hot weather watch/warning
system for the region.
Received: 9 August 1999 / Revised: 9 March 2000 / Accepted: 1 May 2000 相似文献
18.
Pedro Ordunez Elisa Prieto-Lara Vilma Pinheiro Gawryszewski Anselm J. M. Hennis Richard S. Cooper 《PloS one》2015,10(10)
Background
Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the underlying cause 1.6 million deaths per year in the Americas, accounting for 30% of total mortality and 38% of by non-communicable deaths diseases (NCDs). A 25% reduction in premature mortality due four main NCDs was targeted by the 2011 High-level Meeting of the General Assembly on the Prevention and Control of NCDs. While overall CVD mortality fell in the Americas during the past decade, trends in premature CVD mortality during the same period have not been described, particularly in the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean.Methods
This is a population-based trend-series study based on a total of 6,133,666 deaths to describe the trends and characteristics of premature mortality due to CVD and to estimates of the average annual percentage of change during the period 2000–2010 in the Americas.Findings
Premature mortality due to CVD in the Americas fell by 21% in the period 2000–2010 with a -2.5% average annual rate of change in the last 5 year—a statistically significant reduction of mortality—. Mortality from ischemic diseases, declined by 25% - 24% among men and 26% among women. Cerebrovascular diseases declined by 27% -26% among men and 28% among women. Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago, the Dominican Republic, Bahamas, and Brazil had CVD premature mortality rates over 200 per 100,000 population, while the average for the Region was 132.7. US and Canada will meet the 25% reduction target before 2025. Mexico, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Dominican Republic, Panama, Guyana, and El Salvador did not significantly reduce premature mortality among men and Guyana, the Dominican Republic, and Panama did not achieve the required annual reduction in women.Conclusions
Trends in premature mortality due to CVD observed in last decade in the Americas would indicate that if these trends continue, the Region as a whole and a majority of its countries will be able to reach the goal of a 25% relative reduction in premature mortality even before 2025. 相似文献19.
20.
Effects of extremely hot days on people older than 65 years in Seville (Spain) from 1986 to 1997 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
Díaz J García R Velázquez de Castro F Hernández E López C Otero A 《International journal of biometeorology》2002,46(3):145-149
The effects of heat waves on the population have been described by different authors and a consistent relationship between mortality and temperature has been found, especially in elderly subjects. The present paper studies this effect in Seville, a city in the south of Spain, known for its climate of mild winters and hot summers, when the temperature frequently exceeds 40 degrees C. This study focuses on the summer months (June to September) for the years from 1986 to 1997. The relationships between total daily mortality and different specific causes for persons older than 65 and 75 years, of each gender, were analysed. Maximum daily temperature and relative humidity at 7.00 a.m. were introduced as environmental variables. The possible confounding effect of different atmospheric pollutants, particularly ozone, were considered. The methodology employed was time series analysis using Box-Jenkins models with exogenous variables. On the basis of dispersion diagrams, we defined extremely hot days as those when the maximum daily temperature surpassed 41 degrees C. The ARIMA model clearly shows the relationship between temperature and mortality. Mortality for all causes increased up to 51% above the average in the group over 75 years for each degree Celsius beyond 41 degrees C. The effect is more noticeable for cardiovascular than for respiratory diseases, and more in women than in men. Among the atmospheric pollutants, a relation was found between mortality and concentrations of ozone, especially for men older than 75. 相似文献