The effective size of mixed sexually and asexually reproducing populations

Using the transition matrix of inbreeding and coancestry coefficients, the inbreeding (N(eI)), variance (N(eV)), and asymptotic (N(e lambda)) effective sizes of mixed sexual and asexual populations are formulated in terms of asexuality rate (delta), variance of asexual (C) and sexual (K) reproductive contributions of individuals, correlation between asexual and sexual contributions (rho(ck)), selfing rate (beta), and census population size (N). The trajectory of N(eI) toward N(e lambda) changes crucially depending on delta, N, and beta, whereas that of N(eV) is rather consistent. With increasing asexuality, N(e lambda) either increases or decreases depending on C, K, and rho(ck). The parameter space in which a partially asexual population has a larger N(e lambda) than a fully sexual population is delineated. This structure is destroyed when N(1 - delta) < 1 or delta > 1 - 1/N. With such a high asexuality, tremendously many generations are required for the asymptotic size N(e lambda) to be established, and N(e lambda) is extremely large with any value of C, K, and rho(ck) because the population is dominated eventually by individuals of the same genotype and the allelic diversity within the individuals decays quite slowly. In reality, the asymptotic state would occur only occasionally, and instantaneous rather than asymptotic effective sizes should be practical when predicting evolutionary dynamics of highly asexual populations.     

Pair formation

A multitype pair formation model for a one-sex population, without separation, with given type distribution of singles, produces a distribution of pairs with the given type distribution as a marginal distribution. The pair distribution can be seen as a nonnegative symmetric matrix. For this matrix representation formulas have been given years ago and have been widely used. The goal of the paper is to understand these formulas in probabilistic terms and give a meaning to their coefficients. Our approach connects the formulas to the problem of completing a substochastic matrix to a stochastic matrix. In this way the coefficients in the representation formula can be interpreted as preferences and insight can be gained into the set of distributions respecting given preferences. In order to put these questions into a wider perspective, the classical two-sex pair formation models are reviewed and embedded into the class of one-sex models, and dynamic models are designed that yield pair distributions as limit elements.     

Restricted BLUP for Mixed Linear Models

A new estimation procedure for mixed regression models is introduced. It is a development of Henderson's best linear unbiased prediction procedure which uses the joint distribution of the observed dependent random variables and the unknown realisations of the random components of the model. It is proposed to replace the likelihood of the observations given the random components by the asymptotic likelihood of the maximum likelihood estimators and the prior distribution of the random components by a restricted prior distribution which is consistent with the usual restrictions placed on the random components when they are considered conditionally fixed.     

Estimation of integrated transition hazards and stage occupation probabilities for non-Markov systems under dependent censoring

We propose nonparametric estimators of the stage occupation probabilities and transition hazards for a multistage system that is not necessarily Markovian, using data that are subject to dependent right censoring. We assume that the hazard of being censored at a given instant depends on a possibly time-dependent covariate process as opposed to assuming a fixed censoring hazard (independent censoring). The estimator of the integrated transition hazard matrix has a Nelson-Aalen form where each of the counting processes counting the number of transitions between states and the risk sets for leaving each stage have an IPCW (inverse probability of censoring weighted) form. We estimate these weights using Aalen's linear hazard model. Finally, the stage occupation probabilities are obtained from the estimated integrated transition hazard matrix via product integration. Consistency of these estimators under the general paradigm of non-Markov models is established and asymptotic variance formulas are provided. Simulation results show satisfactory performance of these estimators. An analysis of data on graft-versus-host disease for bone marrow transplant patients is used as an illustration.     

The stability–complexity relationship at age 40: a random matrix perspective

Since the work of Robert May in 1972, the local asymptotic stability of large ecological systems has been a focus of theoretical ecology. Here we review May's work in the light of random matrix theory, the field of mathematics devoted to the study of large matrices whose coefficients are randomly sampled from distributions with given characteristics. We show how May's celebrated “stability criterion” can be derived using random matrix theory, and how extensions of the so-called circular law for the limiting distribution of the eigenvalues of large random matrix can further our understanding of ecological systems. Our goal is to present the more technical material in an accessible way, and to provide pointers to the primary mathematical literature on this subject. We conclude by enumerating a number of challenges, whose solution is going to greatly improve our ability to predict the stability of large ecological networks.     

Asymptotic Distribution of Density-Dependent Stage-Grouped Population Dynamics Models

Matrix models are widely used in biology to predict the temporal evolution of stage-structured populations. One issue related to matrix models that is often disregarded is the sampling variability. As the sample used to estimate the vital rates of the models are of finite size, a sampling error is attached to parameter estimation, which has in turn repercussions on all the predictions of the model. In this study, we address the question of building confidence bounds around the predictions of matrix models due to sampling variability. We focus on a density-dependent Usher model, the maximum likelihood estimator of parameters, and the predicted stationary stage vector. The asymptotic distribution of the stationary stage vector is specified, assuming that the parameters of the model remain in a set of the parameter space where the model admits one unique equilibrium point. Tests for density-dependence are also incidentally provided. The model is applied to a tropical rain forest in French Guiana.     

Nonparametric Analysis of Ordered Categorical Data in Designs with Longitudinal Observations and Small Sample Sizes

For designs with longitudinal observations of ordered categorical data, a nonparametric model is considered where treatment effects and interactions are defined by means of the marginal distributions. These treatment effects are estimated consistently by ranking methods. The hypotheses in this nonparametric setup are formulated by means of the distribution functions. The asymptotic distribution of the estimators for the nonparametric effects are given under the hypotheses. For small samples, a rather accurate approximation is suggested. A clinical trial with ordered categorical data is used to motivate the ideas and to explain the procedures which are extensions of the Wilcoxon‐Mann‐Whitney test to factorial designs with longitudinal observations. The application of the procedures requires only some trivial regularity assumptions.     

Ranking analysis of correlation coefficients in gene expressions

Development of statistical methods has become very necessary for large-scale correlation analysis in the current "omic" data. We propose ranking analysis of correlation coefficients (RAC) based on transforming correlation matrix into correlation vector and conducting a "locally ranking" strategy that significantly reduces computational complexity and load. RAC gives estimation of null correlation distribution and an estimator of false discovery rate (FDR) for finding gene pairs of being correlated in expressions obtained by comparison between the ranked observed correlation coefficients and the ranked estimated ones at a given threshold level. The simulated and real data show that the estimated null correlation distribution is exactly the same with the true one and the FDR estimator works well in various scenarios. By applying our RAC, in the null dataset, no gene pairs were found but, in the human cancer dataset, 837 gene pairs were found to have positively correlated expression variations at FDR≤5%. RAC performs well in multiple conditions (classes), each with 3 or more replicate observations.     

Factors affecting the errors in the estimation of evolutionary distances between sequences

Phylogenetic methods that use matrices of pairwise distances between sequences (e.g., neighbor joining) will only give accurate results when the initial estimates of the pairwise distances are accurate. For many different models of sequence evolution, analytical formulae are known that give estimates of the distance between two sequences as a function of the observed numbers of substitutions of various classes. These are often of a form that we call "log transform formulae". Errors in these distance estimates become larger as the time t since divergence of the two sequences increases. For long times, the log transform formulae can sometimes give divergent distance estimates when applied to finite sequences. We show that these errors become significant when t approximately 1/2 |lambda(max)|(-1) logN, where lambda(max) is the eigenvalue of the substitution rate matrix with the largest absolute value and N is the sequence length. Various likelihood-based methods have been proposed to estimate the values of parameters in rate matrices. If rate matrix parameters are known with reasonable accuracy, it is possible to use the maximum likelihood method to estimate evolutionary distances while keeping the rate parameters fixed. We show that errors in distances estimated in this way only become significant when t approximately 1/2 |lambda(1)|(-1) logN, where lambda(1) is the eigenvalue of the substitution rate matrix with the smallest nonzero absolute value. The accuracy of likelihood-based distance estimates is therefore much higher than those based on log transform formulae, particularly in cases where there is a large range of timescales involved in the rate matrix (e.g., when the ratio of transition to transversion rates is large). We discuss several practical ways of estimating the rate matrix parameters before distance calculation and hence of increasing the accuracy of distance estimates.     

Finding confidence limits on population growth rates: Bootstrap and analytic methods

When predicting population dynamics, the value of the prediction is not enough and should be accompanied by a confidence interval that integrates the whole chain of errors, from observations to predictions via the estimates of the parameters of the model. Matrix models are often used to predict the dynamics of age- or size-structured populations. Their parameters are vital rates. This study aims (1) at assessing the impact of the variability of observations on vital rates, and then on model’s predictions, and (2) at comparing three methods for computing confidence intervals for values predicted from the models. The first method is the bootstrap. The second method is analytic and approximates the standard error of predictions by their asymptotic variance as the sample size tends to infinity. The third method combines use of the bootstrap to estimate the standard errors of vital rates with the analytical method to then estimate the errors of predictions from the model. Computations are done for an Usher matrix models that predicts the asymptotic (as time goes to infinity) stock recovery rate for three timber species in French Guiana. Little difference is found between the hybrid and the analytic method. Their estimates of bias and standard error converge towards the bootstrap estimates when the error on vital rates becomes small enough, which corresponds in the present case to a number of observations greater than 5000 trees.     

Simple diagnostic statistical tests of models for DNA substitution

The accuracy of models for DNA substitution used in phylogenetic analyses is becoming more important with the increasing availability and analysis of molecular sequence data. It is natural to look for ways of improving these models, and to do this in a planned manner it is useful to be able to identify features of sequences that may not be described adequately. In this paper, I describe three statistics which may give useful diagnostic information on departures from models' predictions. The statistical distributions of these statistics are discussed and simple significance tests are derived. These tests are based on the (estimated) phylogeny of the sequences and so have the advantage of using the information contained in this tree. Examples are given of the application of the new tests to Markov chain models describing the evolution of primate pseudogene sequences and small-subunit RNA sequences.Abbreviations b(N,p) binomial distribution of N trials, each with probability p of success - m(N,p ₁,p ₂, ..., p _r ) multinomial distribution of N trials, with r possible outcomes having probabilities p ₁, p ₂, ..., p_r, respectively - N(, ²) Normal distribution with mean and variance ² - p() Poisson distribution with mean - bp base pairs - cdf cumulative distribution function - i.i.d. independent, identical distribution     

General Time-Reversible Distances with Unequal Rates across Sites: Mixing Γ and Inverse Gaussian Distributions with Invariant Sites

A series of new results useful to the study of DNA sequences using Markov models of substitution are presented with proofs. General time-reversible distances can be extended to accommodate any fixed distribution of rates across sites by replacing the logarithmic function of a matrix with the inverse of a moment generating function. Estimators are presented assuming a gamma distribution, the inverse Gaussian distribution, or a mixture of either of these with invariant sites. Also considered are the different ways invariant sites may be removed and how these differences may affect estimated distances. Through collaboration, we implemented these distances into PAUP* in 1994. The variance of these new distances is approximated via the delta method. It is also shown how to predict the divergence expected for a pair of sequences given a rate matrix and a distribution of rates across sites, allowing iterated ML estimates of distances under any reversible model. A simple test of whether a rate matrix is time reversible is also presented. These new methods are used to estimate the divergence time of humans and chimps from mtDNA sequence data. These analyses support suggestions that the human lineage has an enhanced transition rate relative to other hominoids. These studies also show that transversion distances differ substantially from the overall distances which are dominated by transitions. Transversions alone apparently suggest a very recent divergence time for humans versus chimps and/or a very old (>16 myr) divergence time for humans versus organgutans. This work illustrates graphically ways to interpret the reliability of distance-based transformations, using the corrected transition to transversion ratio returned for pairs of sequences which are successively more diverged.     

General Time-Reversible Distances with Unequal Rates across Sites: Mixing Γ and Inverse Gaussian Distributions with Invariant Sites

A series of new results useful to the study of DNA sequences using Markov models of substitution are presented with proofs. General time-reversible distances can be extended to accommodate any fixed distribution of rates across sites by replacing the logarithmic function of a matrix with the inverse of a moment generating function. Estimators are presented assuming a gamma distribution, the inverse Gaussian distribution, or a mixture of either of these with invariant sites. Also considered are the different ways invariant sites may be removed and how these differences may affect estimated distances. Through collaboration, we implemented these distances into PAUP* in 1994. The variance of these new distances is approximated via the delta method. It is also shown how to predict the divergence expected for a pair of sequences given a rate matrix and a distribution of rates across sites, allowing iterated ML estimates of distances under any reversible model. A simple test of whether a rate matrix is time reversible is also presented. These new methods are used to estimate the divergence time of humans and chimps from mtDNA sequence data. These analyses support suggestions that the human lineage has an enhanced transition rate relative to other hominoids. These studies also show that transversion distances differ substantially from the overall distances which are dominated by transitions. Transversions alone apparently suggest a very recent divergence time for humans versus chimps and/or a very old (>16 myr) divergence time for humans versus organgutans. This work illustrates graphically ways to interpret the reliability of distance-based transformations, using the corrected transition to transversion ratio returned for pairs of sequences which are successively more diverged.     

A Two Sample CRAMÉR-VON MISES Test for Randomly Censored Data

A CRAMÉR-VON MISES type statistic is introduced for testing the equality of the underlying survival distributions of two populations when observations are subject to arbitrary right censorship. The statistic is appropriate in testing problems where a two-sided alternative is of interest. The asymptotic distribution of the statistic is found; under certain circumstances, the limiting distribution coincides with that of a one sample CRAMÉR-VON MISES type statistic for randomly censored data investigated previously. Approximations to the asymptotic distribution are discussed; an example is given.     

When stable-stage equilibrium is unlikely: integrating transient population dynamics improves asymptotic methods

Background and Aims Evaluation of population projection matrices (PPMs) that are focused on asymptotically based properties of populations is a commonly used approach to evaluate projected dynamics of managed populations. Recently, a set of tools for evaluating the properties of transient dynamics has been expanded to evaluate PPMs and to consider the dynamics of populations prior to attaining the stable-stage distribution, a state that may never be achieved in disturbed or otherwise ephemeral habitats or persistently small populations. This study re-evaluates data for a tropical orchid and examines the value of including such analyses in an integrative approach.Methods Six small populations of Lepanthes rubripetala were used as a model system and the R software package popdemo was used to produce estimates of the indices for the asymptotic growth rate (lambda), sensitivities, reactivity, first-time step attenuation, maximum amplification, maximum attenuation, maximal inertia and maximal attenuation. The response in lambda to perturbations of demographic parameters using transfer functions and multiple perturbations on growth, stasis and fecundity were also determined. The results were compared with previously published asymptotic indices.Key Results It was found that combining asymptotic and transient dynamics expands the understanding of possible population changes. Comparison of the predicted density from reactivity and first-time step attenuation with the observed change in population size in two orchid populations showed that the observed density was within the predicted range. However, transfer function analysis suggests that the traditional approach of measuring perturbation of growth rates and persistence (inertia) may be misleading and is likely to result in erroneous management decisions.Conclusions Based on the results, an integrative approach is recommended using traditional PPMs (asymptotic processes) with an evaluation of the diversity of dynamics that may arise when populations are not at a stable-stage distribution (transient processes). This method is preferable for designing rapid and efficient interventions after disturbances, and for developing strategies to establish new populations.     

Inference on Risk Rates Based on Mortality Data Under Censoring and Competing Risks Using Parametric Models

In this paper we consider the competing risks model where the risks may not be independent. We assume both fixed and random censoring. The random censoring mechanism could have either a parametric or a non-parametric form. The life distributions and the parametric censoring distribution considered are exponential or Weibull. The expressions for the asymptotic confidence intervals for various parameters of interest under different models, using the estimated Fisher information matrix and parametric bootstrap techniques have been derived. Monte Carlo simulation studies for some of these cases have been carried out.     

Stochastic matrix models for conservation and management: a comparative review of methods

Stochastic matrix models are frequently used by conservation biologists to measure the viability of species and to explore various management actions. Models are typically parameterized using two or more sets of estimated transition rates between age/size/stage classes. While standard methods exist for analyzing a single set of transition rates, a variety of methods have been employed to analyze multiple sets of transition rates. We review applications of stochastic matrix models to problems in conservation and use simulation studies to compare the performance of different analytic methods currently in use. We find that model conclusions are likely to be robust to the choice of parametric distribution used to model vital rate fluctuations over time. However, conclusions can be highly sensitive to the within-year correlation structure among vital rates, and therefore we suggest using analytical methods that provide a means of conducting a sensitivity analysis with respect to correlation parameters. Our simulation results also suggest that the precision of population viability estimates can be improved by using matrix models that incorporate environmental covariates in conjunction with experiments to estimate transition rates under a range of environmental conditions.     

Estimating density dependence from population time series using demographic theory and life-history data

For populations with a density-dependent life history reproducing at discrete annual intervals, we analyze small or moderate fluctuations in population size around a stable equilibrium, which is applicable to many vertebrate populations. Using a life history having age at maturity alpha, with stochasticity and density dependence in adult recruitment and mortality, we derive a linearized autoregressive equation with time lags from 1 to alpha yr. Contrary to current interpretations, the coefficients corresponding to different time lags in the autoregressive dynamics are not simply measures of delayed density dependence but also depend on life-history parameters. The theory indicates that the total density dependence in a life history, D, should be defined as the negative elasticity of population growth rate per generation with respect to change in population size, [Formula: see text], where lambda is the asymptotic multiplicative growth rate per year, T is the generation time, and N is adult population size. The total density dependence in the life history, D, can be estimated from the sum of the autoregression coefficients. We estimate D in populations of seven vertebrate species for which life-history studies and unusually long time series of complete population censuses are available. Estimates of D were statistically significant and large, on the order of 1 or higher, indicating strong density dependence in five of the seven species. We also show that life history can explain the qualitative features of population autocorrelation functions and power spectra and observations of increasing empirical variance in population size with increasing length of time series.