捕获网法及其参数估计

介绍了一种采用标记-重捕获技术估计动物种群密度的捕获网抽样方法。在回顾该方法国内外研究进展的基础上,分析了由于该法参数估算过程复杂和缺乏相关的处理计算软件对其应用的限制,提出了捕获网抽样方法参数估计的表格化处理技术。并以美国New Mexico附近白脚鼠的种群密度调查数据分析为例,介绍了嵌入DPS电子工作表的捕获网抽样参数估计表格化处理过程;最后就捕获网抽样参数估计的研究重点提出一些看法和展望。     

Making sense of parameter estimation and model simulation in bioprocesses

Most articles that report fitted parameters for kinetic models do not include meaningful statistical information. This study demonstrates the importance of reporting a complete statistical analysis and shows a methodology to perform it, using functionalities implemented in computational tools. As an example, alginate production is studied in a batch stirred-tank fermenter and modeled using the kinetic model proposed by Klimek and Ollis (1980). The model parameters and their 95% confidence intervals are estimated by nonlinear regression. The significance of the parameters value is checked using a hypothesis test. The uncertainty of the parameters is propagated to the output model variables through prediction intervals, showing that the kinetic model of Klimek and Ollis (1980) can simulate with high certainty the dynamic of the alginate production process. Finally, the results obtained in other studies are compared to show how the lack of statistical analysis can hold back a deeper understanding about bioprocesses.     

An evolutionary computing approach for parameter estimation investigation of a model for cholera

We consider the problem of using time-series data to inform a corresponding deterministic model and introduce the concept of genetic algorithms (GA) as a tool for parameter estimation, providing instructions for an implementation of the method that does not require access to special toolboxes or software. We give as an example a model for cholera, a disease for which there is much mechanistic uncertainty in the literature. We use GA to find parameter sets using available time-series data from the introduction of cholera in Haiti and we discuss the value of comparing multiple parameter sets with similar performances in describing the data.     

Dynamical model development and parameter identification for an anaerobic wastewater treatment process.

This paper deals with the development and the parameter identification of an anaerobic digestion process model. A two-step (acidogenesis-methanization) mass-balance model has been considered. The model incorporates electrochemical equilibria in order to include the alkalinity, which has to play a central role in the related monitoring and control strategy of a treatment plant. The identification is based on a set of dynamical experiments designed to cover a wide spectrum of operating conditions that are likely to take place in the practical operation of the plant. A step by step identification procedure to estimate the model parameters is presented. The results of 70 days of experiments in a 1-m(3) fermenter are then used to validate the model.     

A robust methodology for kinetic model parameter estimation for biocatalytic reactions

Effective estimation of parameters in biocatalytic reaction kinetic expressions are very important when building process models to enable evaluation of process technology options and alternative biocatalysts. The kinetic models used to describe enzyme‐catalyzed reactions generally include several parameters, which are strongly correlated with each other. State‐of‐the‐art methodologies such as nonlinear regression (using progress curves) or graphical analysis (using initial rate data, for example, the Lineweaver‐Burke plot, Hanes plot or Dixon plot) often incorporate errors in the estimates and rarely lead to globally optimized parameter values. In this article, a robust methodology to estimate parameters for biocatalytic reaction kinetic expressions is proposed. The methodology determines the parameters in a systematic manner by exploiting the best features of several of the current approaches. The parameter estimation problem is decomposed into five hierarchical steps, where the solution of each of the steps becomes the input for the subsequent step to achieve the final model with the corresponding regressed parameters. The model is further used for validating its performance and determining the correlation of the parameters. The final model with the fitted parameters is able to describe both initial rate and dynamic experiments. Application of the methodology is illustrated with a case study using the ω‐transaminase catalyzed synthesis of 1‐phenylethylamine from acetophenone and 2‐propylamine. © 2012 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 2012     

Dynamic modeling of syngas fermentation in a continuous stirred-tank reactor: Multi-response parameter estimation and process optimization

Syngas fermentation is one of the bets for the future sustainable biobased economies due to its potential as an intermediate step in the conversion of waste carbon to ethanol fuel and other chemicals. Integrated with gasification and suitable downstream processing, it may constitute an efficient and competitive route for the valorization of various waste materials, especially if systems engineering principles are employed targeting process optimization. In this study, a dynamic multi-response model is presented for syngas fermentation with acetogenic bacteria in a continuous stirred-tank reactor, accounting for gas–liquid mass transfer, substrate (CO, H₂) uptake, biomass growth and death, acetic acid reassimilation, and product selectivity. The unknown parameters were estimated from literature data using the maximum likelihood principle with a multi-response nonlinear modeling framework and metaheuristic optimization, and model adequacy was verified with statistical analysis via generation of confidence intervals as well as parameter significance tests. The model was then used to study the effects of process conditions (gas composition, dilution rate, gas flow rates, and cell recycle) as well as the sensitivity of kinetic parameters, and multiobjective genetic algorithm was used to maximize ethanol productivity and CO conversion. It was observed that these two objectives were clearly conflicting when CO-rich gas was used, but increasing the content of H₂ favored higher productivities while maintaining 100% CO conversion. The maximum productivity predicted with full conversion was 2 g·L⁻¹·hr⁻¹ with a feed gas composition of 54% CO and 46% H₂ and a dilution rate of 0.06 hr⁻¹ with roughly 90% of cell recycle.     

Data reconciliation and parameter estimation in flux-balance analysis

Flux blance analysis (FBA) has been shown to be a very effective tool to interpret and predict the metabolism of various microorganisms when the set of available measurements is not sufficient to determine the fluxes within the cell. In this methodology, an underdetermined stoichiometric model is solved using a linear programming (LP) approach. The predictions of FBA models can be improved if noisy measurements are checked for consistency, and these in turn are used to estimate model parameters. In this work, a formal methodology for data reconciliation and parameter estimation with underdetermined stoichiometric models is developed and assessed. The procedure is formulated as a nonlinear optimization problem, where the LP is transformed into a set of nonlinear constraints. However, some of these constraints violate standard regularity conditions, making the direct numerical solution very difficult. Hence, a barrier formulation is used to represent these constraints, and an iterative procedure is defined that allows solving the problem to the desired degree of convergence. This methodology is assessed using a stoichiometric yeast model. The procedure is used for data reconciliation where more reliable estimations of noisy measurements are computed. On the other hand, assuming unknown biomass composition, the procedure is applied for simultaneous data reconciliation and biomass composition estimation. In both cases it is verified that the f measurements required to get unbiased and reliable estimations is reduced if the LP approach is included as additional constraints in the optimization.     

Computational approaches for RNA energy parameter estimation

Methods for efficient and accurate prediction of RNA structure are increasingly valuable, given the current rapid advances in understanding the diverse functions of RNA molecules in the cell. To enhance the accuracy of secondary structure predictions, we developed and refined optimization techniques for the estimation of energy parameters. We build on two previous approaches to RNA free-energy parameter estimation: (1) the Constraint Generation (CG) method, which iteratively generates constraints that enforce known structures to have energies lower than other structures for the same molecule; and (2) the Boltzmann Likelihood (BL) method, which infers a set of RNA free-energy parameters that maximize the conditional likelihood of a set of reference RNA structures. Here, we extend these approaches in two main ways: We propose (1) a max-margin extension of CG, and (2) a novel linear Gaussian Bayesian network that models feature relationships, which effectively makes use of sparse data by sharing statistical strength between parameters. We obtain significant improvements in the accuracy of RNA minimum free-energy pseudoknot-free secondary structure prediction when measured on a comprehensive set of 2518 RNA molecules with reference structures. Our parameters can be used in conjunction with software that predicts RNA secondary structures, RNA hybridization, or ensembles of structures. Our data, software, results, and parameter sets in various formats are freely available at http://www.cs.ubc.ca/labs/beta/Projects/RNA-Params.     

Simultaneous identification of growth law and estimation of its rate parameter for biological growth data: a new approach

Scientific formalizations of the notion of growth and measurement of the rate of growth in living organisms are age-old problems. The most frequently used metric, “Average Relative Growth Rate” is invariant under the choice of the underlying growth model. Theoretically, the estimated rate parameter and relative growth rate remain constant for all mutually exclusive and exhaustive time intervals if the underlying law is exponential but not for other common growth laws (e.g., logistic, Gompertz, power, general logistic). We propose a new growth metric specific to a particular growth law and show that it is capable of identifying the underlying growth model. The metric remains constant over different time intervals if the underlying law is true, while the extent of its variation reflects the departure of the assumed model from the true one. We propose a new estimator of the relative growth rate, which is more sensitive to the true underlying model than the existing one. The advantage of using this is that it can detect crucial intervals where the growth process is erratic and unusual. It may help experimental scientists to study more closely the effect of the parameters responsible for the growth of the organism/population under study.     

Experimental design of a simple medium for the bioluminescence of Aliivibrio fischeri and mathematical modelling for growth estimation

Increasing numbers of studies are using Aliivibrio fischeri (A. fischeri), a marine bioluminescent bacterium as a model, however the culture medium used for its growth are complex and expensive. The objectives of this study were: (1) to evaluate the effect of yeast extract, tryptone, and NaCl to select a simple and inexpensive culture medium suitable for A. fischeri growth and bioluminescence induction; and (2) to compare the performance of mathematical models to predict the growth of A. fischeri. A fractional factorial design was performed to evaluate the effect of yeast extract, tryptone, and sodium chloride on the luminescence of A. fischeri. The result showed that sodium chloride is the most important factor, congruent with its inducer role in bioluminescence. The best medium for bioluminescence induction was selected through an optimization plot, this medium is inexpensive, and generates the same luminescence as commercial formulations. The estimation of A. fischeri growth at OD₆₀₀ measurement was statistically analyzed. All evaluated models fitted the data adequately (r²  > 0.96). The nonlinear models Gompertz, Richards and logistic provided a lower variation and a better fit of the growth estimation (r² >0.99), showing that these mathematical models can be used for the accurate growth prediction of A. fischeri.     

Optimal designs for a multiresponse Emax model and efficient parameter estimation

The aim of dose finding studies is sometimes to estimate parameters in a fitted model. The precision of the parameter estimates should be as high as possible. This can be obtained by increasing the number of subjects in the study, N, choosing a good and efficient estimation approach, and by designing the dose finding study in an optimal way. Increasing the number of subjects is not always feasible because of increasing cost, time limitations, etc. In this paper, we assume fixed N and consider estimation approaches and study designs for multiresponse dose finding studies. We work with diabetes dose–response data and compare a system estimation approach that fits a multiresponse Emax model to the data to equation‐by‐equation estimation that fits uniresponse Emax models to the data. We then derive some optimal designs for estimating the parameters in the multi‐ and uniresponse Emax model and study the efficiency of these designs.     

Myocardial material parameter estimation: a comparison of invariant based orthotropic constitutive equations

This study investigated a number of invariant based orthotropic and transversely isotropic constitutive equations for their suitability to fit three-dimensional simple shear mechanics data of passive myocardial tissue.

A number of orthotropic laws based on Green strain components and one microstructurally based law have previously been investigated to fit experimental measurements of stress-strain behaviour. Here we extend this investigation to include several recently proposed functional forms, i.e. invariant based orthotropic and transversely isotropic constitutive relations.

These laws were compared on the basis of (i) ‘goodness of fit’: how well they fit a set of six shear deformation tests, (ii) ‘variability’: how well determined the material parameters are over the range of experiments. These criteria were utilised to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the constitutive laws.

It was found that a specific form of the polyconvex type as well as the exponential Fung-type law from the previous study were most suitable for modelling the orthotropic behaviour of myocardium under simple shear.     

NEE观测误差分布类型对陆地生态系统机理模型参数估计的影响——以长白山温带阔叶红松林为例

基于观测数据的陆地生态系统模型参数估计有助于提高模型的模拟和预测能力,降低模拟不确定性.在已有参数估计研究中,涡度相关技术测定的净生态系统碳交换量(NEE)数据的随机误差通常被假设为服从零均值的正态分布.然而近年来已有研究表明NEE数据的随机误差更服从双指数分布.为探讨NEE观测误差分布类型的不同选择对陆地生态系统机理模型参数估计以及碳通量模拟结果造成的差异,以长白山温带阔叶红松林为研究区域,采用马尔可夫链-蒙特卡罗方法,利用2003～2005年测定的NEE数据对陆地生态系统机理模型CEVSA2的敏感参数进行估计,对比分析了两种误差分布类型(正态分布和双指数分布)的参数估计结果以及碳通量模拟的差异.结果表明,基于正态观测误差模拟的总初级生产力和生态系统呼吸的年总量分别比基于双指数观测误差的模拟结果高61～86 g C m-2 a-1和107～116 g C m-2 a-1,导致前者模拟的NEE年总量较后者低29～47 g C m-2 a-1,特别在生长旺季期间有明显低估.在参数估计研究中,不能忽略观测误差的分布类型以及相应的目标函数的选择,它们的不合理设置可能对参数估计以及模拟结果产生较大影响.     

Evaluating the performance of a successive-approximations approach to parameter optimization in maximum-likelihood phylogeny estimation

Almost all studies that estimate phylogenies from DNA sequencedata under the maximum-likelihood (ML) criterion employ an approximateapproach. Most commonly, model parameters are estimated on someinitial phylogenetic estimate derived using a rapid method (neighbor-joiningor parsimony). Parameters are then held constant during a treesearch, and ideally, the procedure is repeated until convergenceis achieved. However, the effectiveness of this approximationhas not been formally assessed, in part because doing so requirescomputationally intensive, full-optimization analyses. Here,we report both indirect and direct evaluations of the effectivenessof successive approximations. We obtained an indirect evaluationby comparing the results of replicate runs on real data thatuse random trees to provide initial parameter estimates. Forsix real data sets taken from the literature, all replicateiterative searches converged to the same joint estimates oftopology and model parameters, suggesting that the approximationis not starting-point dependent, as long as the heuristic searchesof tree space are rigorous. We conducted a more direct assessmentusing simulations in which we compared the accuracy of phylogeniesestimated using full optimization of all model parameters oneach tree evaluated to the accuracy of trees estimated via successiveapproximations. There is no significant difference between theaccuracy of the approximation searches relative to full-optimizationsearches. Our results demonstrate that successive approximationis reliable and provide reassurance that this much faster approachis safe to use for ML estimation of topology.     

A methodology for parameter estimation in seaweed productivity modelling

This paper presents a combined approach for parameter estimation in models of primary production. The focus is on gross primary production and nutrient assimilation by seaweeds.A database of productivity determinations, biomass and mortality measurements and nutrient uptake rates obtained over one year for Gelidium sesquipedale in the Atlantic Ocean off Portugal has been used. Annual productivity was estimated by harvesting methods, and empirical relationships using mortality/wave energy and respiration rates have been derived to correct for losses and to convert the estimates to gross production. In situ determinations of productivity have been combined with data on the light climate (radiation periods, intensity, mean turbidity) to give daily and annual productivity estimates. The theoretical nutrient uptake calculated using a Redfield ratio approach and determinations of in situ N and P consumption by the algae during incubation periods have also been compared.The results of the biomass difference and incubation approaches are discussed in order to assess the utility of coefficients determined in situ for parameter estimation in seaweed production models.     

A stochastic formulation of the gompertzian growth model for in vitro bactericidal kinetics: parameter estimation and extinction probability

Time-kill curves have frequently been employed to study the antimicrobial effects of antibiotics. The relevance of pharmacodynamic modeling to these investigations has been emphasized in many studies of bactericidal kinetics. Stochastic models are needed that take into account the randomness of the mechanisms of both bacterial growth and bacteria-drug interactions. However, most of the models currently used to describe antibiotic activity against microorganisms are deterministic. In this paper we examine a stochastic differential equation representing a stochastic version of a pharmacodynamic model of bacterial growth undergoing random fluctuations, and derive its solution, mean value and covariance structure. An explicit likelihood function is obtained both when the process is observed continuously over a period of time and when data is sampled at time points, as is the custom in these experimental conditions. Some asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimators for the model parameters are discussed. The model is applied to analyze in vitro time-kill data and to estimate model parameters; the probability of the bacterial population size dropping below some critical threshold is also evaluated. Finally, the relationship between bacterial extinction probability and the pharmacodynamic parameters estimated is discussed.