Understanding variation in rates of referral among general practitioners: are inappropriate referrals important and would guidelines help to reduce rates?

OBJECTIVES--To determine the extent to which variation in rates of referral among general practitioners may be explained by inappropriate referrals and to estimate the effect of implementing referral guidelines. SETTING--Practices within Cambridge Health Authority and Addenbrooke''s Hospital, Cambridge. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Data on practice referral rates from hospital computers, inappropriate referrals as judged by hospital consultants, and inappropriate referrals as judged against referral guidelines which had been developed locally between general practitioners and specialists. Effect of referral guidelines on referral patterns as judged by general practitioners using the guidelines in clinical practice. RESULTS--There was 2.5-fold variation in referral rates among general practices. According to the specialists, 9.6% (95% confidence interval 6.4% to 12.9%) of referrals by general practitioners and 8.9% (2.6% to 15.2%) of referrals from other specialists were judged possibly or definitely inappropriate. Against locally determined referral guidelines 15.9% of referrals by general practitioners were judged possibly inappropriate (11.8% to 20.0%). Elimination of all possibly inappropriate referrals could reduce variation in practice referral rates only from 2.5-fold to 2.1-fold. An estimate of the effect of using referral guidelines for 60 common conditions in routine general practice suggested that application of guidelines would have been unlikely to reduce rates of referral in hospital (95% confidence interval -4.5% to 8.6% of consultations resulting in referral). CONCLUSION--The variation in referral rates among general practitioners in Cambridge could not be explained by inappropriate referrals. Application of referral guidelines would be unlikely to reduce the number of patients referred to hospital.     

Screening for breast cancer.

The feasibility of mass population screening for breast cancer by clinical examination and x-ray mammography was studied. The results indicate that such a programme could be conducted effectively by non-medical staff and be safe from the dangers of irradiation. The response rate of women invited for screening suggests that such a service is acceptable to the general public. The additional work load produced by screening would not overburden the existing surgical services.     

Assessment of the Accuracy of Cytology In Women Referred For Colposcopy and Biopsy: the Results of a 1 Year Audit

The results of weekly colposcopy review meetings have been audited for 1 year and cases where there was a discrepancy between the referral cervical smear and the initial colposcopy biopsy have been analysed. New referrals (n = 476) for colposcopy were studied. In the final outcome 80% of 326 women referred for moderate or severe dyskaryosis were found to have cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade II or III or invasive carcinoma. Three women found to have invasive carcinoma had been referred for severely dyskaryotic smears. Twenty women were referred for smears with cell changes suggesting glandular neoplasia: five were found to have adenocarcinoma in situ, whereas eight had CIN and seven had negative biopsies. The results justify the referral policy and demonstrate the need for further investigation when initial colposcopic biopsies are negative.     

The extent of the two tier service for fundholders.

OBJECTIVE--To examine possible differential changes in outpatient referrals to orthopaedic clinics, attendances, and waiting times between fundholding and non-fundholding general practitioners. DESIGN--Observational controlled study of referrals by general practitioners to orthopaedic outpatients between April 1991 and March 1995. SETTING--District health authority in south-west England. SUBJECTS--10 fundholding practices with 108,300 registered patients; 22 control practices with 159,900 registered patients. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Changes in age standardised referral and outpatient attendance ratios for the year before and the two years after achieving fundholder status; changes in outpatient waiting times. RESULTS--In the year before achieving fundholding status both groups were referring more patients than were being seen. Two years later, referral and attendance ratios had increased by 13% and 36% respectively for fundholders and 32% and 59% for controls, and both groups were referring fewer patients than were being seen. Attendances represented 112% of referrals for fundholders and 104% for controls. In 1991-2, a similar proportion of patients in the two groups was seen within three months of referral. The two hospitals that set up specific clinics exclusively for fundholders showed faster access for patients of fundholders by 1993-4, as did a third hospital without such clinics by 1994-5. CONCLUSIONS--Fundholders increased their orthopaedic referrals less than did controls and achieved a better balance between outpatient appointments and referrals. Their patients were likely to be seen more quickly, particularly if the hospital provided special clinics exclusively for fundholders. Lack of case mix information makes it impossible to judge whether these differences benefit or disadvantage patients.     

Sensitivity of the Pap test in detecting high grade lesions: what should be the acceptable cytologic threshold for colposcopic referral?

OBJECTIVE: To devise an optimal cytology threshold for colposcopy referral in resource-limited settings. STUDY DESIGN: Four hundred seventy-two symptomatic women 20-60 years old were screened by both cytology and colposcopy. Onsite biopsy was taken if lesions grade 1 or above were detected on colposcopy. Women found to have cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 2 and above lesions on histopathology were stratified according to their cytologic diagnosis (atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance [ASCUS]+ threshold, low grade squamous intraepithelial lesion [LSIL]+ threshold, and high grade squamous intraepithelial lesion [HSIL]+ threshold). The comparative sensitivity, specificity and predictive values in each group were calculated, taking biopsy as the gold standard. RESULTS: The sensitivity of LSIL + cytology to detect CIN 2+ lesions was 91.5% (referral load, 30.7%). While the sensitivity of ASCUS+ cytology threshold was almost the same (92.3%), the referral load was much higher (42.2%). With HSIL+ cytology threshold, though the referral load was reduced substantially (21.9%), the sensitivity also decreased, to 81.5%. CONCLUSION: The results indicate that in order to achieve high sensitivity, the LSIL cytology threshold appears to be optimum for colposcopic referrals.     

Referrals to hospital by general practitioners: a study of compliance and communication.

To determine the extent of non-attendance at first hospital appointments 269 hospital referrals made in one practice over 14 weeks were analysed retrospectively. Non-attendance was more likely among patients referred to outpatient departments than to casualty or for admission. Fifteen per cent (41/269) of all patients and 20% (33/167) of outpatients failed to keep their initial appointments. Prolonged waiting times from referral to appointment were significantly related to non-attendance. Twenty weeks after the last referral had been made no communication had been received by the practice for 24% (61/252) of all referral letters received by the hospital. Minimum delays to appointments and improved communication between hospitals and general practitioners would help general practitioners to make appropriate referrals and improve compliance.     

Trends in deliberate self poisoning and self injury in Oxford, 1976-90.

OBJECTIVE--To review trends in deliberate self poisoning and self injury (attempted suicide) over 15 years (1976-90) on the basis of general hospital referrals. DESIGN--Prospective data collection by computerised monitoring system. SETTING--Teaching general hospital. SUBJECTS--All patients aged 15 and over (n = 9605) referred to the hospital after episodes (n = 13,340) of deliberate self poisoning or self injury. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Rates based on population of Oxford city; changes in substances used for self poisoning; history and repetition of attempts; and rates of admission to the hospital and of referral to the psychiatric service. RESULTS--Attempted suicide rates for women declined during the late 1970s and early 1980s but increased again during the late 1980s. Those for men remained relatively steady throughout the period. Highest mean annual rates occurred in women aged 15-19 (711/100,000) and in 20-34 year old men (334/100,000). The proportion of overdoses with paracetamol increased from 14.3% (125/873) in 1976 to 42% (365/869) in 1990 (chi 2 for trend = 481, p less than 0.01). Throughout the period the proportions of referred patients admitted to hospital and of those attempting suicide for the first time (over two thirds) did not decrease. Annual rates of repetition of attempts by women declined from 15.1% (257/1700) in 1976-8 to 11.9% (161/1356) in 1987-9 (chi 2 for trend = 7.8, p less than 0.01). Lower repetition rates occurred in women admitted to hospital and referred to the psychiatric service (431/4585, 9.4%) than in those not referred (42/235, 17.9%; chi 2 = 17.2, p less than 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS--Rates of attempted suicide declined in the 1970s and early 1980s, in women, but there are probably at least 100,000 hospital referrals a year in England and Wales because of this problem. Prevention of paracetamol self poisoning requires urgent attention, and psychosocial assessment should be conducted with as many of those who attempt suicide as possible.     

Relation between general practices' outpatient referral rates and rates of elective admission to hospital.

OBJECTIVE--To examine the variation in rates of admission to hospital among general practices, to determine the relation between referral rates and admission rates, and to assess the extent to which variations in outpatient referral rates might account for the different patterns of admission. DESIGN--A comparison of outpatient referral rates standardised for age and sex and rates of elective admission to hospital for six specialties individually and for all specialties combined. SETTING--19 General practices in three districts in Oxford Regional Health Authority with a combined practice population of 188 610. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Estimated proportion of outpatient referrals resulting in admission to hospital, extent of variation in referral rates and admission rates among practices, and association between admissions and outpatient referrals. RESULTS--Patients referred to surgical specialties were more likely than those referred to medical specialties to be admitted after an outpatient referral. Overall, the estimated proportion of patients admitted after an outpatient referral was 42%. There were significant differences among the practices in referral rates and admission rates for most of the major specialties. The extent of systematic variance in admission rates (0.048) was similar to that in referral rates (0.037). Referral and admission rates were significantly associated for general surgery; ear, nose, and throat surgery; trauma and orthopaedics; and all specialties combined. For most specialties the practices with higher referral rates also had higher admission rates, casting doubt on the view that these practices were referring more patients unnecessarily. CONCLUSION--Rates of elective admission to hospital vary systematically among general practices. Variations in outpatient referral rates are an important determinant of variations in admission rates.     

Role of non-medical staff in screening for breast cancer.

In a feasibility study of mass population screening for breast cancer by clinical examination and mammography the ability of non-medical staff (nurses and radiographers) to act as primary screeners was compared with that of medical staff (surgeons and radiologists). In 240 women with cancer the rate of detection of the disease by the non-medical staff was comparable to that of the medical staff, although the non-medical staff detected more cancers by mammography alone than did the medical staff. The rate of detection by surgeons and particularly nurses was lower in women without symptoms than in those with symptoms, whereas the incidence of detection by radiologists and radiographers was lower in women aged under 50 than in those over 50. The rate of detection by all groups of staff significantly increased with increases in tumour size. The results suggest that non-medical staff can act effectively as primary screeners, but that for the detection of cancer in asymptomatic women, particularly those over 50, mammography is probably more effective than clinical examination.     

Six years' audit of laboratory workload and rates of referral for colposcopy in a cervical screening programme in three districts.

OBJECTIVE--To determine laboratory workload and rates of referral for colposcopy in a three district cervical screening programme during 1983-9 to assess the feasibility of accommodating call up of all women at risk, recall at three year intervals (now five year intervals), and investigation of women with all degrees of abnormality. DESIGN--Analysis of computerised screening histories dating back to 1977 of women screened in the Avon cervical screening programme. SETTING--Three district health authorities covering the population of Bristol and Weston-super-Mare, comprising 800,000 people, of whom 250,000 were female residents aged 20 to 64. SUBJECTS--196,977 Women aged 20 to 64 screened in cervical screening programme since 1983. RESULTS--Laboratory workload devoted to follow up of women with abnormalities increased sharply between 1987-8 and 1988-9, with increases of 54% (from 2075 to 3196) in the number of smears for follow up of severe dyskaryosis and invasive cancer, 40% (from 1925 to 2695) for mild and moderate dyskaryosis, and 49% (from 1793 to 2677) for borderline change. The increases were partly explained by the introduction in April 1988 of protocols for follow up and investigation based on guidance in an intercollegiate working party report. The proportion of women with mild and moderate dyskaryosis who were recommended for referral for colposcopy increased steadily from 9.9% in 1983-4 to 79.9% in 1988-9, and for borderline change the proportions were 3.5% and 13.6% respectively. Of all women tested in 1988-9, referral for colposcopy was recommended in 3%. CONCLUSIONS--The increase in laboratory follow up work identified, if it continued, could result in half of existing laboratory capacity in Avon being devoted to follow up work by 1993, with little prospect of maintaining call, recall, and quality control. Investigation of all women with minor cytological abnormalities is neither justifiable nor sustainable and will undermine the benefits of screening by increasing the rate of false positive results and the financial costs.     

Long-term follow-up of patients following negative colposcopy: a new gold standard and its implications for cervical screening

From 1189 colposcopy referrals in 1997 at a single cervical screening centre, 88 women who had no biopsy taken at colposcopy (negative colposcopy) were identified. We followed up these women for a maximum of 4 years and calculated the positive predictive value (PPV) of a single smear before and after follow-up. Using slide review we attempted to correlate the grade of smear leading to colposcopy referral with final outcome. Our results showed that long-term follow-up alters the PPV of cervical cytology. Analysis showed a strong correlation between the review grade of the referring smear and the final outcome after follow-up. From these results we suggest an evidence-based protocol for cervical screening follow-up after negative colposcopy.     

Vision screening in preschool children: comparison of orthoptists and clinical medical officers as primary screeners.

OBJECTIVE--To see if there were differences in referral rates and abnormalities detected from two areas that were operating different preschool vision screening programmes. DESIGN--Cohort study using case notes of referrals. SETTING--Community based secondary referral centres in the county of Avon. PATIENTS--263 referrals from a child population of 7105 in Southmead district, an area that used orthoptists as primary vision screeners; 111 referrals from a child population of 2977 in Weston-super-Mare, an area that used clinical medical officers for screening. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Amblyopia and squint detection rates, together with false positive referral rates. RESULTS--The amblyopia detection rate in Southmead district was significantly higher than in Weston-super-Mare (11/1000 children v 5/1000), as was the detection rate of squint (11/1000 v 3/1000). However, the false positive referral rate from Southmead was significantly lower than that from Weston-super-Mare (9/1000 v 23/1000). CONCLUSION--Preschool vision screening using orthoptists as primary screeners offers a more effective method of detecting visual abnormalities than using clinical medical officers.     

Management of Women With A Cervical Smear Showing A Mild Degree of Dyskaryosis: A Review of Policy

Three hundred and thirty-seven women who presented for the first time with a cervical smear showing a mild degree of dyskaryosis were followed for a minimum period of 3 years and 9 months. Of the 305 women with complete cytological and histological records, 178 were biopsied and 127 remained on cytological follow up. In the biopsied group one case of microinvasive squamous cell carcinoma was diagnosed within 1 year of the patient's first abnormal smear. A further 24% showed cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) I, 17% showed CIN II and 29% showed CIN III. The overall regression rate for the group of 305 women was 34%. Our results indicate that cytological surveillance is acceptable provided that biopsy is advised when dyskaryosis persists. No major modifications to laboratory policy are indicated and in approximately 34% of cases an unnecessary hospital referral would be avoided.     

Determining the size of a total purchasing site to manage the financial risks of rare costly referrals: computer simulation model.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the financial risks of 15 categories of rare costly referrals for total purchasing sites of different population sizes. DESIGN: Computer simulation of 100 fund years assuming Poisson distribution of referrals. SETTING: British general practices that have opted to become total purchasing sites. Referral rates and price estimates were supplied by South and West Devon Health Commission. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Variation in referral costs to purchasers in relation to size of risk pool (person years at risk). RESULTS: Random variation in referral costs increased as the size of the risk pool decreased. Variation increased greatly below 30,000 person years. The mean simulated cost of the referral categories considered was 2.8% of total NHS hospital and community service costs, and the maximum simulated cost for 7000 person years was 6.8%. Simulated variation was robust to assumption about prices and referral rates for specific types of referral. CONCLUSION: Rare costly referrals seem unlikely to bankrupt total purchasing sites. The management of risk is not in itself justification for total purchasing to be based in several general practices in order to generate large populations. There are other ways of managing risk. Sites can easily explore options by simulations using local referral rates and prices.     

Screening for cervical cancer by direct inspection.

OBJECTIVE--To assess the efficacy of visual screening for cervical cancer in the maternal and child health setting. DESIGN--Clinical and cytological screening. SETTING--Maternal and child health centres, Delhi. SUBJECTS--44,970 women attending the centres from May 1988 to March 1991. RESULTS--238 cancers in early stages (0-IIa) were detected cytologically and proved through biopsy. Prevalence of cancer in women defined as high risk through examination by speculum was 29/1000 as compared to 1.53/1000 among women with a normal looking cervix. Though only 11.4% women belonged to the high risk category, 63% had early stage cancer. If all women with bleeding symptoms were included in the high risk category, the yield of cancer would be 71.4% (170/238) by referring only 15.6% of women attending maternal and child health centres for further evaluation through cytology or colposcopy. CONCLUSION--Though visual screening is a suboptimal strategy in comparison to the cytological screening, it may be useful where there is a heavy load of prevalent cancer and where cytological screening may not be available for years to come.     

The Cytological Prediction of Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia In Colposcopically Directed Biopsies

The tissue sections and preceding cervical smears of 1262 women who had colposcopic cervical biopsies were reviewed and the reports correlated. Close correlation between the cytological and histological findings, to within one histological grade of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN), was noted in 86% of cases. However, the biopsy was negative, or contained evidence of wart virus infection only, in 24% of cases where dyskaryotic cells had been observed in the cervical smear. Of particular concern was the fact that negative histological findings were recorded in 13% of cases where the smear contained cells showing a moderate dyskaryosis and in 1.26% of cases where the smear showed severe dyskaryosis. This suggests that colposcopically directed biopsies do not always reflect the underlying pathological changes in the cervix. Management of these cases is discussed. In 45 women with a normal cervical smear prior to biopsy, histology revealed seven cases of CIN 3 and one case of invasive squamous carcinoma. This indicates that referral for colposcopy is advisable whenever there is clinical suspicion of cancer, even if the cervical smear report is normal.     

Use of Radiological Facilities by General Practitioners

The 11,360 direct referrals to diagnostic radiological facilities by general practitioners in the Aberdeen area during 1973 were studied. These represented about 12% of the adult radiology performed in the main x-ray departments of the city, and barium meal examinations amounted to half of all such outpatient contrast examinations. Chest x-ray and barium meal examinations were the most frequently used procedures.Some abnormality was detected at 34% of all examinations, and the barium meal examinations requested by general practitioners showed a similar percentage of abnormal findings to those requested by Aberdeen hospital doctors.The average referral rate for all practices was 24·6 per 1,000 practice population per year. Singlehanded general practitioners referred fewer patients for diagnostic radiology than those working in group practices, and rural practitioners referred fewer than urban general practitioners. This trend was emphasized at a distance greater than 15 miles from the city.     

Regional variation in nonmedical factors affecting family physicians' decisions about referral for consultation

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether there is regional variation in environmental (non-medical) factors affecting referral decisions of family physicians (FPs). DESIGN: Cross-sectional interview survey. SETTING: Nova Scotia. PARTICIPANTS: A random sample of 125 FPs grouped into 1 of 5 functionally defined geographic regions of Nova Scotia (25 in each group). Groupings were based on access to general hospital beds through active staff hospital appointments or to specialist consultants in the community, or both. Participants were personally interviewed on site. No physician refused an interview. In 9 cases the physician indicated that he or she did not fit the profile of the assigned group; the physician was excluded from the study and the next doctor on the list was substituted. OUTCOME MEASURES: The questionnaire was designed to test several hypotheses about factors known to potentially influence decisions about referral. Geographic differences in factors affecting referral and in decisions about 5 hypothetical cases were assessed with the use of significance tests for proportions that were sensitive to specific orders across groups. RESULTS: Three factors affecting referral showed unequivocal variation across the 5 groups. Access to hospital facilities and remoteness from specialist care, leading to local styles of practice or treatment policies, and the FP''s relationship with specialist consultants appeared to be important nonmedical factors affecting referral decisions. For similar case scenarios the physicians living in rural areas would refer only half as often overall as those living in urban areas with tertiary care hospitals; for some cases, such as a severe asthma attack, the difference was more than 7-fold. CONCLUSIONS: Significant differences in nonmedical factors affecting referral, and in referral decisions about hypothetical cases, were found between the groups of FPs. Differences in access to resources, creating local styles of practice, appeared to explain most of the variation. The results may account for previously observed differences in actual rates of referral for these particular groups.     

National Health Service breast screening programme results for 1991-2.

OBJECTIVES--To report the results of the NHS breast screening programme for the year March 1991 to April 1992. DESIGN--A report of statistics was derived from Körner (K62) returns and from the radiology quality assurance programme. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Detection rates for breast cancer and small (< or = 10 mm diameter) invasive cancer, benign biopsy rates, and recall and acceptance rates. RESULTS--The acceptance rate for screening across the United Kingdom was 71.3%. The referral rate for further investigation was 6.2% (regional 4.3-9.0%). The breast cancer detection rate was 6.2 cancers per 1000 women screened (5.1-9.0) and the detection rate of invasive cancers < or = 10 mm was 1.4/1000 (1.0-2.3). 72% of screening programmes reached the target 70% acceptance rate, and 95% of programmes achieved a recall rate of less than 10%. 75% of programmes had a cancer detection rate of more than 5/1000, but only 32% had a detection rate for invasive cancers < or = 10 mm of more than 1.5/1000. CONCLUSIONS--Overall, the results of the screening programme for the year 1991-2 can be regarded as extremely satisfactory, given the size and complexity of the operation.